The Thursday afternoon open thread – politicalbetting.com

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The Thursday afternoon open thread – politicalbetting.com

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SandyRentool

1st, like Labour to book the venue for the New Year speeches.

turbotubbs

2nd like someone on their first day back and not being productive...

Scott_xP

turbotubbs said:

2nd like someone on their first day back and not being productive...

like Kevin McCarthy...

YBarddCwsc

FPT

TheKitchenCabinet said:

EPG said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

WillG said:

numbertwelve said:

WillG said:

numbertwelve said:

ydoethur said:

numbertwelve said:

Seems like there has been some progress in the last 24 hours in The Speaker Saga, but no-one seems to know if it will be enough to make anyone change their vote, and there also seems to be a hardcore subset of the 20 rebels who are simply digging their heels in and refusing to back McCarthy come what may.

If the House follows precedent, switches to plurality voting and the Dems win the Speakership as a result, will those twenty get primaried?

Indeed, could they be recalled?

To switch to plurality voting there will need to be a majority of Reps who are willing to do so. So it requires cross-party buy in (assuming the awkward squad don’t back it - and why would they?

The rest of the GOP won’t switch to plurality unless it guarantees a GOP speaker.

So unless McCarthy steps aside or manages to broker a deal in the next couple of days I think this saga still has a bit to run.

Recall I think depends on whether the particular state allows it but someone with greater knowledge of US politics will probably set me right on that.

Why would you need a majority of Republicans? You just need 10 of them.

I should have written representatives (which is what I meant) rather than Reps, that muddied the water somewhat!

Not sure how you get those 10 to do so though unless it guarantees a GOP speaker. Otherwise they are de facto voting for a Democratic speaker which I cant see.

I suppose if they force through plurality with democratic help they can try and call Boebert et als bluff by saying “vote McCarthy or get Jeffreys,” but it’s a high risk strategy.

But project this forward. McCarthy has offered everything that is even halfway reasonable. Still it's not enough for them. The centrist Republicans won't vote for an actual freedom caucus nutter. So the 20 aren't going to get anything more. So they are going to do a week of this.

At that point might a handful of the most reasonable Republicans think screw this, my party is a joke. I will punish these nutters by showing them what they get. If the base hates them over it, they can defect to the Dems.

One of the things that has been (far) less commented on about the Midterms is that, despite the poor results vs expectations, the GOP polled nearly 3% ahead of the Democrats in the popular vote (when it came to seat redistricting, many D states like Illinois resorted to rolling the dice and focusing on maximising seat numbers, not majorities, in contrast to many GOP states). That was with some batshit crazy / poor quality candidates.

Every single story on here gets turned into a "This will kill the GOP" but the fact is that a large percentage of the American population won't vote Democratic and - maybe a surprise to people on here - sees many of the Democrats as batshit crazy in their own way.

Anyone hoping this is Death Knell 2001 for the GOP is going to be disappointed severely.

To be fair, "signalling one's intellectual superiority over the libs by effortfully puffing up extremists" is also a trope on here; see Leon if you want to set up a club. On the specifics, talking about the House is cherry-picking a mid-term election where the GOP under-performed at state and US Senate levels, and those are the places where the awful candidates get highlighted by big money. For example, consider Congressman-elect Santos whose delusions were only exposed months after the election; that wouldn't happen in an election for governor where each side has much more money to spend on opposition research, advertising across a media market and so on.

Indeed Santos is one example of where the US just falls down when it comes to the House.

Point of order though. 6-8 weeks ago pre-election, the betting was against the GOP taking the Senate and there was probably no Governorship result that came as an absolute shock (arguably the biggest shocks were DeSantis' and Abbott's margins, and that Zeldin ran Hochul so close in NY). What turned it into a blow for the GOP was the ramping up of expectations due to biased polls, which is why you could get 8/1 for the GOP on 49 seats in the Senate the week before the election (thanks @rcs1000 ), even though they were defending two states they lost in 2020 (PA and WI).

In an election that’s not predicted to be close, it can make sense to run extreme & absurd candidates.

The whackjobs can then get elected easier. And you may have a strong goal to push policies in one direction or another (whether left or right). So it is not completely stupid to put up extreme & absurd candidates, as they can shift the centre of gravity, even if their ideas are insane.

Now, recollect. If you go back a year ago, the mid-term elections didn’t seem like they’d be close.

So then, if you want an ignorant idiot and serial women abuser (like Herschel Walker) to get elected, you put him up as Republican nominee for Georgia. He will lose a few per cent of the vote, but it's not going to be close, so it won't make much of a difference.

But something happened that the GOP had not anticipated (it seems).

The midterms turned out not to be a referendum on the incumbent President. The pendulum did not swing back to the GOP.

The Supreme Court changed the meaning of the midterms.

So, for the first time in my life, I agree with Donald Trump.

He is correct when he says the ‘abortion issue’ sunk the GOP in the midterms.

And the losses were all the greater because they put up some crazy candidates in what turned out (against their expectation) to be close-run fights. So, the few percent that Herschel Walker (or Mehmet Oz) lost because they were crazy or extreme turned out to be the difference between winning and losing key Senate seats.

MaxPB

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

Jim_Miller

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

SandyRentool

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

The late James Brokenshire was the ideal politician to be put in charge of local government reorganisation.

Driver

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

Do you really want Bill Cash in charge of the Treasury?

Selebian

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

A few from the Tories:
Health - Heald
DEFRA - Wild or Greenwood
Transport - Ford or Walker
Scot - McGovern

TheScreamingEagles

Mike, you should have told me you were busy.

I would have written an AV thread for this afternoon.

Or a Scottish independence thread, using all my expert knowledge allowed me to accurately predict Scotland would bottle it in 2014.

jamesdoyle

Truss and Bone for Health
Francois at the Foreign Office
Warman at Defence
Fabricant at Industry
Fysh at Defra

Peter_the_Punter

Driver said:

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

Do you really want Bill Cash in charge of the Treasury?

Presumably Damian Green is a shoo-in for Environment, and Alex Chalk for Education?

SandyRentool

Drax for Energy

Peter_the_Punter

Driver said:

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

Do you really want Bill Cash in charge of the Treasury?

Or Simon Hoare at The Whips Office.

NickyBreakspear

Leader of the House of Lords - John Baron

Driver

Selebian said:

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

A few from the Tories:
Health - Heald
DEFRA - Wild or Greenwood
Transport - Ford or Walker
Scot - McGovern

McGovern is a genius suggestion!

GIN1138

Is Mike busy reading Prince Harry's autobiography revelations?

Malmesbury

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike, you should have told me you were busy.

I would have written an AV thread for this afternoon.

Or a Scottish independence thread, using all my expert knowledge allowed me to accurately predict Scotland would bottle it in 2014.

What about a header, written using ChatGPT, on the merits of eating pineapple on pizza, listening to Radiohead, while coding an AV results generator in Python. For a Scottish Referendum.

?

Selebian

Peter_the_Punter said:

Driver said:

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

Do you really want Bill Cash in charge of the Treasury?

Presumably Damian Green is a shoo-in for Environment, and Alex Chalk for Education?

Education needs a 3Rs dream team - Raab (specialising in geography), Redwood (languages) and Rees-Mogg (history)

Scott_xP

Malmesbury said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike, you should have told me you were busy.

I would have written an AV thread for this afternoon.

Or a Scottish independence thread, using all my expert knowledge allowed me to accurately predict Scotland would bottle it in 2014.

What about a header, written using ChatGPT, on the merits of eating pineapple on pizza, listening to Radiohead, while coding an AV results generator in Python. For a Scottish Referendum.

?

Here’s how we’ll use ChatGPT at work in 2023 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-01-03/how-to-use-chatgpt-ai-at-work-in-2023

Pulpstar

Foster, Minister for children

numbertwelve

GOP indicate seventh Speaker ballot to take place today.

Foxy

Having reviewed Starmer and Sunaks speeches, I can only conclude that the fag end years of this government will be as dreary as a damp January day in Northampton. No ideas, no enthusiasm and little to choose between the head boy or the weary department head.

The only thing that could worsen the experience is pineapple pizza being served up to a Radiohead tribute group singing an album of songs generated by ChatGPT.

TheScreamingEagles

John Stonehouse - Housing Secretary

Scott_xP

Fucking YES Simon Pegg! https://twitter.com/HFeddieHF/status/1610653498605015043/video/1

Driver

Culture, media and sport (or maybe a junior minister for media only) - Graham Stringer.

rcs1000

YBarddCwsc said:

FPT

TheKitchenCabinet said:

EPG said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

WillG said:

numbertwelve said:

WillG said:

numbertwelve said:

ydoethur said:

numbertwelve said:

Seems like there has been some progress in the last 24 hours in The Speaker Saga, but no-one seems to know if it will be enough to make anyone change their vote, and there also seems to be a hardcore subset of the 20 rebels who are simply digging their heels in and refusing to back McCarthy come what may.

If the House follows precedent, switches to plurality voting and the Dems win the Speakership as a result, will those twenty get primaried?

Indeed, could they be recalled?

To switch to plurality voting there will need to be a majority of Reps who are willing to do so. So it requires cross-party buy in (assuming the awkward squad don’t back it - and why would they?

The rest of the GOP won’t switch to plurality unless it guarantees a GOP speaker.

So unless McCarthy steps aside or manages to broker a deal in the next couple of days I think this saga still has a bit to run.

Recall I think depends on whether the particular state allows it but someone with greater knowledge of US politics will probably set me right on that.

Why would you need a majority of Republicans? You just need 10 of them.

I should have written representatives (which is what I meant) rather than Reps, that muddied the water somewhat!

Not sure how you get those 10 to do so though unless it guarantees a GOP speaker. Otherwise they are de facto voting for a Democratic speaker which I cant see.

I suppose if they force through plurality with democratic help they can try and call Boebert et als bluff by saying “vote McCarthy or get Jeffreys,” but it’s a high risk strategy.

But project this forward. McCarthy has offered everything that is even halfway reasonable. Still it's not enough for them. The centrist Republicans won't vote for an actual freedom caucus nutter. So the 20 aren't going to get anything more. So they are going to do a week of this.

At that point might a handful of the most reasonable Republicans think screw this, my party is a joke. I will punish these nutters by showing them what they get. If the base hates them over it, they can defect to the Dems.

One of the things that has been (far) less commented on about the Midterms is that, despite the poor results vs expectations, the GOP polled nearly 3% ahead of the Democrats in the popular vote (when it came to seat redistricting, many D states like Illinois resorted to rolling the dice and focusing on maximising seat numbers, not majorities, in contrast to many GOP states). That was with some batshit crazy / poor quality candidates.

Every single story on here gets turned into a "This will kill the GOP" but the fact is that a large percentage of the American population won't vote Democratic and - maybe a surprise to people on here - sees many of the Democrats as batshit crazy in their own way.

Anyone hoping this is Death Knell 2001 for the GOP is going to be disappointed severely.

To be fair, "signalling one's intellectual superiority over the libs by effortfully puffing up extremists" is also a trope on here; see Leon if you want to set up a club. On the specifics, talking about the House is cherry-picking a mid-term election where the GOP under-performed at state and US Senate levels, and those are the places where the awful candidates get highlighted by big money. For example, consider Congressman-elect Santos whose delusions were only exposed months after the election; that wouldn't happen in an election for governor where each side has much more money to spend on opposition research, advertising across a media market and so on.

Indeed Santos is one example of where the US just falls down when it comes to the House.

Point of order though. 6-8 weeks ago pre-election, the betting was against the GOP taking the Senate and there was probably no Governorship result that came as an absolute shock (arguably the biggest shocks were DeSantis' and Abbott's margins, and that Zeldin ran Hochul so close in NY). What turned it into a blow for the GOP was the ramping up of expectations due to biased polls, which is why you could get 8/1 for the GOP on 49 seats in the Senate the week before the election (thanks @rcs1000 ), even though they were defending two states they lost in 2020 (PA and WI).

In an election that’s not predicted to be close, it can make sense to run extreme & absurd candidates.

The whackjobs can then get elected easier. And you may have a strong goal to push policies in one direction or another (whether left or right). So it is not completely stupid to put up extreme & absurd candidates, as they can shift the centre of gravity, even if their ideas are insane.

Now, recollect. If you go back a year ago, the mid-term elections didn’t seem like they’d be close.

So then, if you want an ignorant idiot and serial women abuser (like Herschel Walker) to get elected, you put him up as Republican nominee for Georgia. He will lose a few per cent of the vote, but it's not going to be close, so it won't make much of a difference.

But something happened that the GOP had not anticipated (it seems).

The midterms turned out not to be a referendum on the incumbent President. The pendulum did not swing back to the GOP.

The Supreme Court changed the meaning of the midterms.

So, for the first time in my life, I agree with Donald Trump.

He is correct when he says the ‘abortion issue’ sunk the GOP in the midterms.

And the losses were all the greater because they put up some crazy candidates in what turned out (against their expectation) to be close-run fights. So, the few percent that Herschel Walker (or Mehmet Oz) lost because they were crazy or extreme turned out to be the difference between winning and losing key Senate seats.

There was no one single reason why the Republicans lost, there were several:

(1) Candidate quality did matter. A better candidate than Herschel Walker would probably have won the Georgia Senate race. Don't forget that the Republicans won the Governorship with ease. Now, sure, Walker probably only lost them a percent or two. But in an incredibly close race like Georgia, that mattered. The same is possibly true of Pennsylvania, and probably true of Arizona. (Let's not forget that the Republicans won the popular vote in AZ for the House. That's a lot of Republican voters who chose not to vote for Lake or Masters.)

(2) Abortion and the Supreme Court. Yep, people came out to vote because legal, regulated abortion is broadly popular, and the Republicans are on the wrong side of this debate. (Except smart old Ron DeSantis, who has pegged Florida's law at 15 weeks, and who romped home.)

(3) The specter of Donald Trump. The closer a candidate was to the Donald, the worse they did.

IanB2

And so the House session resumes with a point of order that there aren’t enough of them in there to achieve the quorum

Leon

Scott_xP said:

Fucking YES Simon Pegg! https://twitter.com/HFeddieHF/status/1610653498605015043/video/1

Christ, he looks terrible. About 60 years old. Is he ill?

Sincere question. I love his comic acting

TheScreamingEagles

FYI - Stonehouse is a great series.

Though for the first 20 mins all I could see was Tom Wambsgans.

CorrectHorseBattery3

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

Luckyguy1983

FPT @Malmesbury

Malmesbury said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

numbertwelve said:

SKS seems to think the solution to the NHS crisis is simply to recruit more doctors and nurses (where? how?)

Yes that’s part of the problem but he’s not hit on the crux of the issue. The whole edifice is creaking and groaning and is collapsing under the strain. More hands to the pump will help, but without fundamental reform things aren’t going to get measurably better.

The answer to where and how was debated here yesterday. Labour will greatly increase the numbers of doctors and nurses trained. That is betting without making it easier for foreign-trained staff to work here. Fundamental reform is just a slogan.

I was told that training more medical staff was impossible a while back, because they would all leave the country and it was gammon, anyway.

Has this changed?

Were you really told that? Really?

ETA actually you do make a good point. Junior hospital doctors are under a lot of stress for not much money so tend to leave the profession and/or the country, at least temporarily.

On the leaving the country/changing jobs thing - the massive stress on junior doctors used to be boasted of, in the profession. Perhaps if we *stop* the beatings, morale will improve.

The person making that point seemed to claim that 100% of any extra trained staff would leave. Which is absurd.

All training/careers have wastage. If nothing else, someone who has done a medical degree is highly employable in other professions.

It would seem sensible to make medical training free, in exchange for a 10 to 20 year contract with the NHS upon completion.

Is it also the case that nurses need a degree these days? That's garbage. Nurses should do most of their training on wards.

That's illegal under human rights law. The way you can do it, is to pay the debt off over the period of employment. I've suggested this for cancelling student loans for teachers. So after 5 years of teaching, say, the teacher has all their loans paid off.

As the medics here will tell you, nurses do far more than bedpans, and have for years. You can do the multiple years of academic+practical experience and call it a Nursing Certificate or you can call it a Nursing Degree.

We are a sovereign parliamentary democracy; we make the human rights law. That point made, I agree if there's a way of achieving the same thing without scaring the horses, we should do that.

I am aware that nurses do more than bedpans, but it would surely serve the NHS far better to approach nursing training from an apprenticeship perspective, spending more time gaining hospital experience. This would serve trainee nurses better, and increase the capacity of the service. Degrees are rubbish at the best of times. What can one really learn from lecturers and powerpoints? I say that as someone with one.

MarqueeMark

Driver said:

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

Do you really want Bill Cash in charge of the Treasury?

Could be worse. You could make him Governor of the Bank of England...

Driver

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Richard_Tyndall

jamesdoyle said:

Truss and Bone for Health
Francois at the Foreign Office
Warman at Defence
Fabricant at Industry
Fysh at Defra

Fisheries could be a 3 way fight between Fysh, Crabb and Grayling.

I assume Robert Courts for Justice Minister

rcs1000

I would like to thank @Jim_Miller for a fascinating challenge.

Richard_Tyndall

Jane Hunt and Liam Fox could share rural affairs.

Luckyguy1983

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

Do you really want Bill Cash in charge of the Treasury?

Could be worse. You could make him Governor of the Bank of England...

He would do better than both the current deplorable incumbents.

MaxPB

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

I agree with you, yet both parties treat the NHS as an article of faith, you see it on here as well, just another few billion will solve the problem, a few years later another few billion on top etc... The model is fundamentally broken. It will take a much braver politician than Starmer to say this and turn it into policies, though.

RobD

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

After decades of their supporters wailing about the NHS being minutes away from privatisation by the Tories, to have it fully privatised by Labour would make me laugh out loud. Not in a month of Sundays would that happen.

The thought that a 30m speech has undone decades of Labour dogma on this issue is absurd.

Sunil_Prasannan

Streeting - transport

Luckyguy1983

Any new tips for post Rishi leaders and therefore PMs? The Tories are crazy if they let him limp on to the next election. It's not going to be Steve Barclay, the NHS has killed him.

noneoftheabove

Andy Slaughter can oversee the return of capital punishment as a Minister for Justice.

Lennon

Luckyguy1983 said:

Any new tips for post Rishi leaders and therefore PMs? The Tories are crazy if they let him limp on to the next election. It's not going to be Steve Barclay, the NHS has killed him.

Speaking of which - presumably Barclay would be the City Minister...

RobD

Lennon said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Any new tips for post Rishi leaders and therefore PMs? The Tories are crazy if they let him limp on to the next election. It's not going to be Steve Barclay, the NHS has killed him.

Speaking of which - presumably Barclay would be the City Minister...

Hunt to DEFRA?

Malmesbury

Luckyguy1983 said:

FPT @Malmesbury

Malmesbury said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

numbertwelve said:

SKS seems to think the solution to the NHS crisis is simply to recruit more doctors and nurses (where? how?)

Yes that’s part of the problem but he’s not hit on the crux of the issue. The whole edifice is creaking and groaning and is collapsing under the strain. More hands to the pump will help, but without fundamental reform things aren’t going to get measurably better.

The answer to where and how was debated here yesterday. Labour will greatly increase the numbers of doctors and nurses trained. That is betting without making it easier for foreign-trained staff to work here. Fundamental reform is just a slogan.

I was told that training more medical staff was impossible a while back, because they would all leave the country and it was gammon, anyway.

Has this changed?

Were you really told that? Really?

ETA actually you do make a good point. Junior hospital doctors are under a lot of stress for not much money so tend to leave the profession and/or the country, at least temporarily.

On the leaving the country/changing jobs thing - the massive stress on junior doctors used to be boasted of, in the profession. Perhaps if we *stop* the beatings, morale will improve.

The person making that point seemed to claim that 100% of any extra trained staff would leave. Which is absurd.

All training/careers have wastage. If nothing else, someone who has done a medical degree is highly employable in other professions.

It would seem sensible to make medical training free, in exchange for a 10 to 20 year contract with the NHS upon completion.

Is it also the case that nurses need a degree these days? That's garbage. Nurses should do most of their training on wards.

That's illegal under human rights law. The way you can do it, is to pay the debt off over the period of employment. I've suggested this for cancelling student loans for teachers. So after 5 years of teaching, say, the teacher has all their loans paid off.

As the medics here will tell you, nurses do far more than bedpans, and have for years. You can do the multiple years of academic+practical experience and call it a Nursing Certificate or you can call it a Nursing Degree.

We are a sovereign parliamentary democracy; we make the human rights law. That point made, I agree if there's a way of achieving the same thing without scaring the horses, we should do that.

I am aware that nurses do more than bedpans, but it would surely serve the NHS far better to approach nursing training from an apprenticeship perspective, spending more time gaining hospital experience. This would serve trainee nurses better, and increase the capacity of the service. Degrees are rubbish at the best of times. What can one really learn from lecturers and powerpoints? I say that as someone with one.

The nursing degree is already a combination of theory and practise implementing the theory under supervision.

A real apprenticeship involves quite a bit of book work - especially in a skill like medicine.

noneoftheabove

Kate Green at Environment, Sarah Champion Minister for Sport, Simon Lightwood in charge of the Fire Service, Karen Buck another Finance minister

MaxPB

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

A well regulated insurance based healthcare system which ensures that people with pre-existing serious conditions or inherited conditions aren't financially penalised would work just fine. No more strikes, no more staff shortages, no more agencies ripping off the taxpayer because insurers just wouldn't stand for it. We'd also finally get some kind of financial penalty for slovenliness which results in obesity and type 2 diabetes which is impossible under the NHS system and an incentive for people to keep fit as insurers in Switzerland offer different packages, many of which give refunds for low or no usage over the year.

CorrectHorseBattery3

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

I agree with you, yet both parties treat the NHS as an article of faith, you see it on here as well, just another few billion will solve the problem, a few years later another few billion on top etc... The model is fundamentally broken. It will take a much braver politician than Starmer to say this and turn it into policies, though.

I think Starmer can do it with enough will. He has the space now to do it, whether he will is anyone's guess.

How are you matey.

Selebian

On second thoughts, Spellar for Education?

MarqueeMark

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

Daveyboy1961

Selebian said:

Jim_Miller said:

Here's a challenge for all of you: Pick a Cabinet in which the names match the positions. For example, Braverman might by a good choice for Defense, Cleverly for the Foreign Office -- "to frustrate their knavish tricks" -- and so on.

It would be easier if you chose them from the entire parliament, but more impressive if you limited them to just one party.

A few from the Tories:
Health - Heald
DEFRA - Wild or Greenwood
Transport - Ford or Walker
Scot - McGovern

Minister for Mining - Ed DAVEY

IanB2

Quorum achieved, off we go with the nominations…

McCarthy (R), Jefferies (D), and again Donalds (R) as the rebel

MaxPB

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

And the worst part of it is that we spend a fucking shit load of money on the NHS, comparable to other nations which have better health outcomes. The NHS is just broken and none of the politicians want to say it. Insurers would simply stop using GPs who declined to see patients and send their people to GPs that do see patients.

Andy_JS

First open thread for a long time. Maybe Nighthawks will be returning as well.

MaxPB

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

I agree with you, yet both parties treat the NHS as an article of faith, you see it on here as well, just another few billion will solve the problem, a few years later another few billion on top etc... The model is fundamentally broken. It will take a much braver politician than Starmer to say this and turn it into policies, though.

I think Starmer can do it with enough will. He has the space now to do it, whether he will is anyone's guess.

How are you matey.

I don't think so, he's not even getting rid of the Triple Lock or talking NI on pension incomes. Those are far, far easier to achieve for Labour than this kind of NHS reform.

Keeping alright, Jen sleeping through the night now so getting 7-8h of sleep again, how about you?

Driver

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

And the worst part of it is that we spend a fucking shit load of money on the NHS, comparable to other nations which have better health outcomes. The NHS is just broken and none of the politicians want to say it. Insurers would simply stop using GPs who declined to see patients and send their people to GPs that do see patients.

None of the politicians want to say it because they know they won't get re-elected afterwards.

numbertwelve

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

I agree with you, yet both parties treat the NHS as an article of faith, you see it on here as well, just another few billion will solve the problem, a few years later another few billion on top etc... The model is fundamentally broken. It will take a much braver politician than Starmer to say this and turn it into policies, though.

I think Starmer can do it with enough will. He has the space now to do it, whether he will is anyone's guess.

How are you matey.

He will not want to do it, but there is a good chance he will be forced into it by necessity.

It would be best if it were Labour who were able to sort it. Only a Labour government is going to be trusted enough on healthcare to get public backing.

IanB2

jamesdoyle said:

Truss and Bone for Health
Francois at the Foreign Office
Warman at Defence
Fabricant at Industry
Fysh at Defra

Matt Warman could be given Defence?

MarqueeMark

Driver said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

And the worst part of it is that we spend a fucking shit load of money on the NHS, comparable to other nations which have better health outcomes. The NHS is just broken and none of the politicians want to say it. Insurers would simply stop using GPs who declined to see patients and send their people to GPs that do see patients.

None of the politicians want to say it because they know they won't get re-elected afterwards.

With the state of the NHS, they aren't going to get re-elected anyway unless they shake things up radically.

Casino_Royale

turbotubbs said:

2nd like someone on their first day back and not being productive...

I think we're all struggling with that this week.

Casino_Royale

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

It's a pretty bloody good system though.

IanB2

Thangam Debbonaire as Minister for Fashion?

Mel Stride as Minister of Sport?

Selebian

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

[Studies, taken in the round show] The NHS is not world leading, but it is relatively good value. The most commonly noted countries that out-perform spend more, whatever the system (we're around median in OECD, you also need to consider demographics, we have older population than some). A better health service will cost more.

I'm in no way against change, but there's not a great deal of gain for free, imho.

Nigelb

jamesdoyle said:

Truss and Bone for Health
Francois at the Foreign Office
Warman at Defence
Fabricant at Industry
Fysh at Defra

It seemed a neat idea, but looking at the results, worse than a pineapple Brexit on pizza.

Casino_Royale

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Fucking YES Simon Pegg! https://twitter.com/HFeddieHF/status/1610653498605015043/video/1

Christ, he looks terrible. About 60 years old. Is he ill?

Sincere question. I love his comic acting

I had the same thought. He doesn't look well.

Also, do these actors only mix with people who vehemently agree with them and have no sense how videos like this come across to those that don't?

It's raw abuse.

I remember having a similar reaction to Martin Freeman's party political broadcast for Labour in 2015 when he said, basically, if you were brought up properly you should vote Labour.

IanB2

Off we go with the seventh House vote…

The first four rebels from yesterday have stuck with Donalds…heading for another impasse here by the look of it

Casino_Royale

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

Good on you for saying that.

MarqueeMark

So - are we going to have a 36 hour ceasefire in Ukraine? Didn't seem to be much of one around New Year from the Russians, so I'm thinking the Ukrainians will tell Putin to spin
- and carry on as usual.

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

And the worst part of it is that we spend a fucking shit load of money on the NHS, comparable to other nations which have better health outcomes...

Do we ?
As a % of GDP, what's the Swiss spend per capita in healthcare; or Germany or France ? From what I can quickly find, it's a bit more than we spend.

Driver

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Fucking YES Simon Pegg! https://twitter.com/HFeddieHF/status/1610653498605015043/video/1

Christ, he looks terrible. About 60 years old. Is he ill?

Sincere question. I love his comic acting

I had the same thought. He doesn't look well.

Also, do these actors only mix with people who vehemently agree with them and have no sense how videos like this come across to those that don't?

It's raw abuse.

I remember having a similar reaction to Martin Freeman's party political broadcast for Labour in 2015 when he said, basically, if you were brought up properly you should vote Labour.

I haven't watched the video because there are no subtitles and I can't listen to it when at work, but the hashtag really isn't calculated to appeal to floating voters, is it?

Nigelb

MarqueeMark said:

So - are we going to have a 36 hour ceasefire in Ukraine? Didn't seem to be much of one around New Year from the Russians, so I'm thinking the Ukrainians will tell Putin to spin
- and carry on as usual.

Given they were bombing civilians on Christmas day, it's a completely hollow offer.
A proposal to retreat to the 2014 borders might be a different matter.

TheScreamingEagles

Have we done Sir John Major as Defence Secretary?

He was Shadow Defence Secretary for a few weeks after 1997GE.

eek

I've finally been able to open a ChatGPT session so this is for @TheScreamingEagles - can you tell me the benefits of pineapple on pizza

There are several benefits to adding pineapple to pizza:

Pineapple is a good source of vitamin C, which is important for a healthy immune system.

It is also a good source of manganese, which is necessary for bone development and metabolism.

Pineapple contains bromelain, an enzyme that helps to break down protein and has anti-inflammatory properties.

Pineapple adds a sweet and tropical flavor to pizza that many people enjoy.

It can be a good way to add fruit to your diet, especially if you don't normally eat a lot of fruit.

Overall, pineapple can be a tasty and nutritious addition to pizza. However, it is not for everyone, as some weird people do not like the combination of pineapple and savory foods.

EPG

Selebian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

[Studies, taken in the round show] The NHS is not world leading, but it is relatively good value. The most commonly noted countries that out-perform spend more, whatever the system (we're around median in OECD, you also need to consider demographics, we have older population than some). A better health service will cost more.

I'm in no way against change, but there's not a great deal of gain for free, imho.

I think the NHS was good value prior New Labour, but spending was behind peers and some subjective satisfaction indicators were poor. Tones and pals spent a lot more money for modest clinical gain, but improvements on subjective service quality like non-urgent waiting lists for new hips and the like.

IanB2

eek said:

I've finally been able to open a ChatGPT session so this is for @TheScreamingEagles - can you tell me the benefits of pineapple on pizza

There are several benefits to adding pineapple to pizza:

Pineapple is a good source of vitamin C, which is important for a healthy immune system.

It is also a good source of manganese, which is necessary for bone development and metabolism.

Pineapple contains bromelain, an enzyme that helps to break down protein and has anti-inflammatory properties.

Pineapple adds a sweet and tropical flavor to pizza that many people enjoy.

It can be a good way to add fruit to your diet, especially if you don't normally eat a lot of fruit.

Overall, pineapple can be a tasty and nutritious addition to pizza. However, it is not for everyone, as some weird people do not like the combination of pineapple and savory foods.

Which shows you its weakness, since it has (mostly) told you why eating pineapple might be beneficial, irrelevant to whether it is dumped on a pizza since you might just as well eat it afterwards.

Scott_xP

GAETZ nominates TRUMP for speaker

CorrectHorseBattery3

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

I agree with you, yet both parties treat the NHS as an article of faith, you see it on here as well, just another few billion will solve the problem, a few years later another few billion on top etc... The model is fundamentally broken. It will take a much braver politician than Starmer to say this and turn it into policies, though.

I think Starmer can do it with enough will. He has the space now to do it, whether he will is anyone's guess.

How are you matey.

I don't think so, he's not even getting rid of the Triple Lock or talking NI on pension incomes. Those are far, far easier to achieve for Labour than this kind of NHS reform.

Keeping alright, Jen sleeping through the night now so getting 7-8h of sleep again, how about you?

They all need to go, especially the triple lock.

MarqueeMark

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

So - are we going to have a 36 hour ceasefire in Ukraine? Didn't seem to be much of one around New Year from the Russians, so I'm thinking the Ukrainians will tell Putin to spin
- and carry on as usual.

Given they were bombing civilians on Christmas day, it's a completely hollow offer.
A proposal to retreat to the 2014 borders might be a different matter.

Given the TV talking head spiel about how Ukrainians are untermenchen, that would take some selling.

With 250,000 dead and injured Russians to date.

Casino_Royale

Driver said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Fucking YES Simon Pegg! https://twitter.com/HFeddieHF/status/1610653498605015043/video/1

Christ, he looks terrible. About 60 years old. Is he ill?

Sincere question. I love his comic acting

I had the same thought. He doesn't look well.

Also, do these actors only mix with people who vehemently agree with them and have no sense how videos like this come across to those that don't?

It's raw abuse.

I remember having a similar reaction to Martin Freeman's party political broadcast for Labour in 2015 when he said, basically, if you were brought up properly you should vote Labour.

I haven't watched the video because there are no subtitles and I can't listen to it when at work, but the hashtag really isn't calculated to appeal to floating voters, is it?

No, but it puts me off Simon Pegg.

I wouldn't dream of putting a hyperpartisan video like that out to my professional network.

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

And the worst part of it is that we spend a fucking shit load of money on the NHS, comparable to other nations which have better health outcomes...

Do we ?
As a % of GDP, what's the Swiss spend per capita in healthcare; or Germany or France ? From what I can quickly find, it's a bit more than we spend.

Only a little bit more yet Swiss healthcare outcomes are lightyears ahead of ours, especially among lower income people who get subsidised insurance.

numbertwelve

So the GOP circus continues. Starting to look increasingly likely that McCarthy will have to step aside

Nigelb

Scott_xP said:

GAETZ nominates TRUMP for speaker

And why not ?
I don't think it's anywhere in the Constitution that the Speaker has to be an elected member of the House of Representatives.

Casino_Royale

Can ChatGPT tell me a new year's message to send out to my professional network that doesn't make me look like a wanker?

Scott_xP

Looks like Rishi Sunak has sidelined Suella Braverman again.

Giving anti-social behaviour policy to Gove.

Taking over small boat policy himself.

If he doesn’t want the Home Secretary to do the job, why was he so weak in reappointing her?

https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1611057098263244801

Casino_Royale

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

It's probably only Labour that can go to China on that.

MaxPB

Selebian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

[Studies, taken in the round show] The NHS is not world leading, but it is relatively good value. The most commonly noted countries that out-perform spend more, whatever the system (we're around median in OECD, you also need to consider demographics, we have older population than some). A better health service will cost more.

I'm in no way against change, but there's not a great deal of gain for free, imho.

It was relatively good value, it isn't now, we've drastically increased spend on the NHS in the last 5 years as a proportion of GDP yet health outcomes are worse than they've been in decades.

MarqueeMark

Scott_xP said:

GAETZ nominates TRUMP for speaker

Would it constitutionally stop him running for President?

NickyBreakspear

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

And the worst part of it is that we spend a fucking shit load of money on the NHS, comparable to other nations which have better health outcomes...

Do we ?
As a % of GDP, what's the Swiss spend per capita in healthcare; or Germany or France ? From what I can quickly find, it's a bit more than we spend.

OECD have comparative health statistics. https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?ThemeTreeId=9

For 2019, UK is at 9.9% of GDP, France 11.1%, Switzerland 11.3% and Germany 11.7%.

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

And the worst part of it is that we spend a fucking shit load of money on the NHS, comparable to other nations which have better health outcomes...

Do we ?
As a % of GDP, what's the Swiss spend per capita in healthcare; or Germany or France ? From what I can quickly find, it's a bit more than we spend.

Only a little bit more yet Swiss healthcare outcomes are lightyears ahead of ours, especially among lower income people who get subsidised insurance.

Rather a lot more though, when you consider the GDP per capita is around half as much again as that of the UK.

I'm not arguing for the NHS, but simply suggesting that direct comparisons with other countries aren't particularly easy.
The problem with adopting a Swiss system would presumably be that we have a lot more "lower income people".

Chris

Scott_xP said:

GAETZ nominates TRUMP for speaker

Just to match the inanity, the BBC reports that the nomination evoked "grasps [sic] and confusion".

TimS

IanB2 said:

Thangam Debbonaire as Minister for Fashion?

Mel Stride as Minister of Sport?

Surely Mel Stride would be minister of silly walks.

MaxPB

Casino_Royale said:

Can ChatGPT tell me a new year's message to send out to my professional network that doesn't make me look like a wanker?

The only way to win is to not play. I've never had LinkedIn and never want to have one. It's never harmed my career prospects and I think more people are seeing the benefit of getting rid.

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

And the worst part of it is that we spend a fucking shit load of money on the NHS, comparable to other nations which have better health outcomes...

Do we ?
As a % of GDP, what's the Swiss spend per capita in healthcare; or Germany or France ? From what I can quickly find, it's a bit more than we spend.

Only a little bit more yet Swiss healthcare outcomes are lightyears ahead of ours, especially among lower income people who get subsidised insurance.

Rather a lot more though, when you consider the GDP per capita is around half as much again as that of the UK.

But wages in Switzerland are a lot higher too as well as other input costs for healthcare.

turbotubbs

Luckyguy1983 said:

FPT @Malmesbury

Malmesbury said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

numbertwelve said:

SKS seems to think the solution to the NHS crisis is simply to recruit more doctors and nurses (where? how?)

Yes that’s part of the problem but he’s not hit on the crux of the issue. The whole edifice is creaking and groaning and is collapsing under the strain. More hands to the pump will help, but without fundamental reform things aren’t going to get measurably better.

The answer to where and how was debated here yesterday. Labour will greatly increase the numbers of doctors and nurses trained. That is betting without making it easier for foreign-trained staff to work here. Fundamental reform is just a slogan.

I was told that training more medical staff was impossible a while back, because they would all leave the country and it was gammon, anyway.

Has this changed?

Were you really told that? Really?

ETA actually you do make a good point. Junior hospital doctors are under a lot of stress for not much money so tend to leave the profession and/or the country, at least temporarily.

On the leaving the country/changing jobs thing - the massive stress on junior doctors used to be boasted of, in the profession. Perhaps if we *stop* the beatings, morale will improve.

The person making that point seemed to claim that 100% of any extra trained staff would leave. Which is absurd.

All training/careers have wastage. If nothing else, someone who has done a medical degree is highly employable in other professions.

It would seem sensible to make medical training free, in exchange for a 10 to 20 year contract with the NHS upon completion.

Is it also the case that nurses need a degree these days? That's garbage. Nurses should do most of their training on wards.

That's illegal under human rights law. The way you can do it, is to pay the debt off over the period of employment. I've suggested this for cancelling student loans for teachers. So after 5 years of teaching, say, the teacher has all their loans paid off.

As the medics here will tell you, nurses do far more than bedpans, and have for years. You can do the multiple years of academic+practical experience and call it a Nursing Certificate or you can call it a Nursing Degree.

We are a sovereign parliamentary democracy; we make the human rights law. That point made, I agree if there's a way of achieving the same thing without scaring the horses, we should do that.

I am aware that nurses do more than bedpans, but it would surely serve the NHS far better to approach nursing training from an apprenticeship perspective, spending more time gaining hospital experience. This would serve trainee nurses better, and increase the capacity of the service. Degrees are rubbish at the best of times. What can one really learn from lecturers and powerpoints? I say that as someone with one.

As I have said before, most nursing education is indeed in the clinic. It’s not a three year degree in lecture theatres.

Nigelb

Scott_xP said:

Looks like Rishi Sunak has sidelined Suella Braverman again.

Giving anti-social behaviour policy to Gove...

TBF, I'd be hard pressed to choose between the two on that measure.

SeaShantyIrish2

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

GAETZ nominates TRUMP for speaker

Would it constitutionally stop him running for President?

No.

Chris

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

So - are we going to have a 36 hour ceasefire in Ukraine? Didn't seem to be much of one around New Year from the Russians, so I'm thinking the Ukrainians will tell Putin to spin
- and carry on as usual.

Given they were bombing civilians on Christmas day, it's a completely hollow offer.
A proposal to retreat to the 2014 borders might be a different matter.

I think the point of having the Christmas ceasefire now is that now is when Christmas happens in those parts.

But of course the nicest seasonal gesture would be to stop slaughtering people and committing war crimes whatever the date.

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Driver said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Keir needs to reform the NHS into a Swiss system. Today he has given himself the room to do that.

Lol, as if. The Swiss healthcare system is fully privatised and insurance based with subsidies offered by the state to low wage workers and unemployed people. Otherwise there is nothing like the NHS in Switzerland, all healthcare providers are privately owned and run for profit and insurers are owned and run privately for profit. There is no scenario where any party will ever propose to switch the UK to Swiss style healthcare, it would mean dismantling the NHS completely, privatising all hospitals and trusts, mandating insurance. It's a non-starter.

That's ultimately what we need Max. NHS is not fit for purpose.

This is true, but significant reform is politically completely impossible, because the vested interests will always accuse you of wanting to Americanise the NHS.

Somebody is going to have to say to Britain:

"The unpalatable truth is that NHS needs fundamental reform. It is broken.

The current political consensus by stasis simply condemns patients to an ever worse system of outcomes. We are witnessing this winter after winter.

All other healthcare systems around the world need to be considered, to discover what they do better than us. We must be able to find elements that will work for us in our system. We need a task force as we had for Covid jabs. The finest minds - think the unthinkable to give us a hugely improved system."

Labour will scream. The healthcare unions will scream. The trusts will scream. But fuck them. They gave got us where we are, whilst refusing to take any responsibility. If somebody can do better, they should be allowed to.

And the worst part of it is that we spend a fucking shit load of money on the NHS, comparable to other nations which have better health outcomes...

Do we ?
As a % of GDP, what's the Swiss spend per capita in healthcare; or Germany or France ? From what I can quickly find, it's a bit more than we spend.

Only a little bit more yet Swiss healthcare outcomes are lightyears ahead of ours, especially among lower income people who get subsidised insurance.

Rather a lot more though, when you consider the GDP per capita is around half as much again as that of the UK.

But wages in Switzerland are a lot higher too as well as other input costs for healthcare.

Even on a PPP basis, Switzerland is considerably wealthier than the UK.
Any proposal to reform our healthcare system need to be realistic.

Achieving a Swiss system with Swiss outcomes would involve spending a great deal more than we do now.

Nigelb

Selebian said:

On second thoughts, Spellar for Education?

Fails the SPAG test.