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Ed Miliband – the inspiration for Sunak’s big speech? – politicalbetting.com
Ed Miliband – the inspiration for Sunak’s big speech? – politicalbetting.com
Discuss: pic.twitter.com/LQZ6vq3Jgy
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Just as with landlords and tax deductibility of interest, there will be a distinction drawn between the small and the large.
(This is only partially a joke.)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/04/keir-starmer-government-labour-leader?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Warmed over socialism, which will end up where socialism always ends up: with everyone worse off
But we have to endure this, the Tories have failed, and so we must go through the same process of experimenting with the left until it is proven that it does not work
Did Britain do something very bad to deserve all this?
1. McCarthy didn’t come anywhere close to minimizing GOP opposition.
Before the voting began, the focus was whether McCarthy had any chance of keeping GOP opposition to him to four votes or fewer — the level at which he would have a clear path to the Speakership.
It was always going to be an uphill battle in the first round, since it relied upon the idea that McCarthy could win over at least one of his five most committed GOP opponents — Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.). . . .
He didn’t come anywhere close. . .
2. Democrats stood together amid GOP drama.
Democrats had about as good a day as it’s possible to have for a party newly relegated to the minority.
Democrats stood smoothly and firm behind their nominee for Speaker, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). The unanimous Democratic support for Jeffries gave him the plurality of the votes in all three rounds of voting. . . .
3. It’s a mystery how the stalemate gets broken.
The GOP is in a real bind.
There is no sign at all of opposition to McCarthy weakening. But supporters of the Californian had been adamant before the voting began that they would stick with him until the end.
Unless that dynamic changes, no one can be elected Speaker. Each faction has enough votes to thwart the other. . . .
4. A dismal start for House Republicans.
The failure to elect a Speaker was a debacle for House Republicans — and one that taints their new majority from its first day.
The GOP won its narrow majority — 222-213 seats — on the promise to do something about inflation, the economy, immigration and what conservatives see as the excesses of the Biden administration.
But one reason their majority was not bigger was because Democrats painted the GOP as extreme and dysfunctional.
The chaotic opening of the new Congress has only fed that narrative, as even some Republicans seemed to acknowledge. . . .
5. House adjournment before 6 p.m. paints trouble for McCarthy.
The House adjourned shortly before 5:30 p.m. ET — and that is likely bad news for McCarthy.
His best, if perilous, route forward was to keep the House in session and hope fatigue and frustration would be his friends, increasing the pressure on his opponents.
Instead, Republicans have all night to ponder whether McCarthy really has a realistic shot at getting to the magic number of 218 votes.
If the answer to that is “no,” there is now time to try to plot out the road ahead and perhaps persuade someone, such as [Steve] Scalise, to go forward as a compromise candidate.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3797390-five-takeaways-from-tuesdays-mccarthy-drama-at-the-capitol/
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
He will have little bandwidth to achieve much more with his term of office. A bit of constitutional tinkering and positive mood music, perhaps.
Because as you note, it didn't show any stones.
And many people are going to find they were better off in 2010 than they will be by GE24.
This is one reason I suspect he will do something dramatic on the EU. There are very few areas he will be able to act radically and leave a legacy: he won't have any money. That's all there is to it. But he could join the SM/CU...
Just how many more votes is Kevin McCarthy likely to lose today? Note that in Tuesday's final roll call (#3 vote for Speaker) KMcC lost a vote he'd gotten the previous two rounds.
Just how many more anti-Kevinite "sleepers" are there waiting to pop out of the woodwork?
PLUS moderate GOP members (relatively speaking!) who want to begin exploring alternatives other than (ugh) McCarthy or (barf) Jim Jordan?
Writing on Twitter, Politico reporter Heidi Przybyla highlighted a passage from Boehner's memoir, which was published in 2021, where he shed some light on what animates the hardline caucus of the contemporary Republican Party.
"What they're really interested in is chaos," wrote Boehner. "They want to throw sand in the gears of the hated federal government until it fails and they've finally proved that it's beyond saving."'
source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/passage-from-john-boehner-s-memoir-comes-back-to-haunt-kevin-mccarthy/ar-AA15WLSG?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e1452566e9dc4f17bc4b74e1999530ae
For a certain kind of politician, it is more fun to be in opposition, than in government. (There are examples in the US on both the left and the right.)
Also, how does 5% inflation "ease the cost of living"? It just makes it 5% worse if you don't get a pay rise.
a) Trump's "endorsement" of The Weathervane of Bakersfield is somewhat less than enthusiastic.
b) Even MAGA-maniacs are perfectly willing to disregard The Sage of Mar-a-Lardo when it suits them; just ask Brian Kemp!
But I do agree that events will shape him. Even if the economy turns around the situation in the country is going to be nothing like the benign circumstances that Blair inherited in 1997. There are too many broken systems that will not wait and he will need to fix. If he does not, he will be judged accordingly.
Whereas Kevin McCarthy has been abject in his failure re: the Freedom Caucus. As was (mostly) John Boehner before him.
I do hope the vote continues to be deadlocked. I’m finding it very amusing.
So despite their dire position now, I CAN see the Tories returning in 28-29. They will need a more inspiring leader, tho, and some good ideas
Note that GOP "leadership" is meeting this morning. Butter up some more popcorn, and stay tuned!
Of course, there are those who might be attracted by such a radical prospectus, but it's going to be very expensive, probably a drag on business & consumption, and thus growth, and we're all going to be paying an awful lot more tax.
You can't keep referring back to golden economic years from 1997 to 2007 and putting that down to "Labour". They were almost unique circumstances with a golden economy legacy, a huge boon from 1st wave globalisation and a massive asset boom.
The Lib Dems should make the Single Market their thing, right now. Seize the day. Loudly. Get the Remoaner vote. I do not understand what stops them
Less than 2¢!
Personally, I'm not.
Given that I am in the Camden/Holborn constituency it won't matter what I vote. I'll probably go Lib Dem
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-derbyshire-64165953
Take the invasion of UK by small boats as an example. What drives the smugglers business model is how attractive we are as a nation is it not, meaning thousands want to come, any old how? They queue up to be smuggled is the truth of the business model. Both Brexit and tougher legit immigration and tougher legit asylum routes make not an ounce of difference, because at the end of the day it doesn’t change the fact, people drawn here from all over the world where the streets are lined with golden opportunity. Hence the daft and unworkable Rwanda Policy has support because it is at least the right sort of thinking by trying to address the actual problem - make desirable UK seem undesirable or if that’s impossible then make it seem unattainable.
Where problems have been years in the making, such as whittled down pay and conditions losing trained and experienced staff, there will be no magic wands or quick fixes that can be announced today. What I mean is, what done for Truss was mindset of “I only have 2 years”. Likewise if Sunak was opposition leader, hoping to get 5 year term, would he have given a completely different speech today? Yes. This was a “I only have 2 years left to get people to listen to me” speech.
But. When Tories won in 92 it was because the voters WERE still listening to them, based on trusting them with government and economy during the eighties. After the shambles of this last 10 years, this is completely different, they are not being listened to are they, the don’t knows in polls aren’t going to break favourably to Tories this time are they, because unlike 92 the last 10 years don’t supply a single reason to still listen to them.
The voters were perfectly free to elect someone else, but they saw qualities in Livingstone and Johnson that elude you and I. That's why we are where we are.
https://medium.com/@jacobhoerger/lived-experience-vs-experience-2e467b6c2229
It's worse than that though, of course. It's a new term intended to grant legitimacy to non-falsifiable, usually deluded, beliefs.
I will try and vote to achieve this.
If Sunak massively overperforms and vanquishes the nutters, and the Tory party returns to sanity in the next 2 years (a tall order, I grant you), then I will donate and fight for Tory largest party.
And frankly, what does it add to a discussion of Sunak’s speech, or the general political situation? Did it make you feel happier to vent?
Once upon a time Edstone was a harmless old aqueduct near me in Warwickshire. It should be allowed to settle back into the timeless mire of obscurity.
It means they don't have to do anything awkward like vote down popular legislation or vote through aid packages to Ukraine.
The voters need to take more responsibility and stop electing donkeys with the favoured colour rosette.
The history books will explain in hindsight, the massacre the Tory’s got in 2024 was created by this awful political mistake by inexperienced PM in the winter of 22-23
Can Sunak’s government limit the damage with a u-turn now or is it too late?
At least SKS is unlikely to get involved in a disastrous war in the ME, unless he discovers it polls well with Red Wall voters.
Speakers of the House: Elections, 1913-2021
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/RL30857.pdf
Published by Congressional Research Service, updated Jan 2021
In a lot of these seats, such as Esher and Walton, the Lib Dems will already decisively win the Remainer vote, because it's not likely that Remainers are gonna suddenly vote Tory there.
However, if they come out ardently in favour of the Single Market, they might lose support in seats such as St Ives, where a majority of people voted to Leave in 2016. Same goes for a lot of similar Lib Dem seats in the South West etc.
The ambiguity benefits them in terms of target seats - just as it benefits Starmer.
2) On a national level, the Lib Dems might not want to take too many Labour voters. Under FPTP, they could win fewer seats than they would otherwise, even with a higher percentage of the vote, if support between them and Labour is too badly split - and/or the Tories might stay in power in 2029.
I think, unlike 2019, the vast majority of Lib Dems would rather have a Labour Government than a Tory one this time round - they don't want to let them sneak a win through vote splitting.
3) You could argue that Labour winning in 2024 is an easier path to eventually rejoining the EU than hoping the Lib Dems will surge in the polls. For the average Lib Dem voter this might come into their thinking too.
Langauges mutate and the the term lived experience has come to represent something different from just experience, and certainly it’s closely associated with social justice and woke.
Still, like, irritating, though…
They need a dramatic offering. They need to be seen and heard
Coming out with a big "join the Single Market/CU" policy would be radical and interesting. There are millions of unreconciled Remainers in the UK - the Scott XPs and Rogers - who would love this, and it would sway them above all else in their voting. Sure, it would risk St Ives (or would it?), more importantly, it could get millions of votes as Remainers see a way to elect an EU- friendly government - Labour in coalition with the ascendant LDs
Sure it would be a risk. Doing nothing is riskier for the libs
However, you are correct, the Speaker does NOT have to be an elected Representative.
That said, the majority of Republicans in (or out) of the House do NOT want some kind of coalition with the Democrats. And visa versa.
Fearless prediction > next Speaker will be a) a Republican House member; and b) not Kevin McCarthy.
https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-says-public-sector-pay-rises-will-fuel-inflation-economists-say-they-wont-12779761
Moderate Republicans don't want to get primaried. Remember, there are basically no Republicans left in the House who voted for Trump's impeachment.
This is a really promising policy offer, much of which is constantly demanded on here by left and right wing posters.
Shift taxes toward wealth.
Create a sovereign wealth fund and support domestic industry to reduce the balance of trade deficit.
Devolve power and second power to beefed up local government.
Improve R&D and capital investment to peer economy levels.
Maintain a balanced budget across the cycle.
Dismissing this as reheated 70s Labour or whatever is the sign of not paying attention.
Guessing not very moderate.
But it isn't easy to say that. Because it begs the question, 'so why are you still leading the same party? Indeed, with three of those four PMs on your back benches?'
Much easier for a new government coming in to do the necessary slagging off.
Although that's no help if they then mess up the remedy.
All 32 House Democrats voted for Stephens. They decided to vote in unison for a candidate they thought would best foster bipartisanship, House Minority Leader Allison Russo said."
source: https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-house-of-representatives-ohio-a93d55bd0fce6ba35653efac890a35d8
That's right, a minority of Republicans joined with all the Democrats to elect the Ohio speaker! (Ohio, let me remind you, is the home state of Jim Jordan.)
Or I suppose you could take it one stage further and say, the economy did well under Labour but would have been better still had the Tories been in power 1997-2010 and the economy has been shite since 2010 but would have been more shite under Labour.
Personally I feel the government does make a difference.
Not that he’s going to win the 2024 election anyway.
Out of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after his attempted putch, 2 won reelection last year: David Valadao (CA21) and Dan Newhouse (WA04). So 20% survival rate.
BTW (and FYI) both voted for Kevin McCarthy thrice yesterday.
As a long time Lib Dem voter, who also buys into the “housing theory of everything” (ie that runaway house prices have fucked us all), that’s rather a let down.
No party has a serious offer on the housing issue.
This is why the next government is going to have an absolute nightmare on their hands with the NHS. And I don’t think any of them truly appreciate just how grim it is going to be.
Though I do hear that he's not allowed out at night through fear of being taken by an owl.