Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Can you cope with two massive elections at the same time? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited January 2023 in General
imageCan you cope with two massive elections at the same time? – politicalbetting.com

This piece originally started off as a 2023 predictions thread but then I realised the 2024 presidential election and the next UK general election featured heavily then it dawned on me that is very likely that both these elections may happen within weeks if not days of each other which represents some challenges for punters.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • Options
    Test.
  • Options
    Second like the Tories
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    Oh elections. Right, that makes more sense.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    Two massive elections !

    I had a double take.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    Spring 2024 is more likely for the next UK general election in my view, same time as the US primaries are nearing an end but before the main Presidential election
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Oh elections. Right, that makes more sense.

    Taz said:

    Two massive elections !

    I had a double take.

    You need to get your minds out of the gutter!
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Oh elections. Right, that makes more sense.

    Stiff competition.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589

    DavidL said:

    Oh elections. Right, that makes more sense.

    Taz said:

    Two massive elections !

    I had a double take.

    You need to get your minds out of the gutter!
    How would we understand your thread headers if we did that?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    Taz said:

    Two massive elections !

    I had a double take.

    Maybe TSE had spied George Osborne?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,256
    edited January 2023
    The Tories won their biggest victory for 30 years at an election held in December last time. So doesn't it make sense for them to hold the next one in December as well? Maybe it disadvantages the other parties in some way.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816
    We would need double the penetrating insights from the PB commentariat.
  • Options
    As my prediction record is now back on excellent form: I predicted the month the Tories would lose their poll lead, I predicted peak Johnson, I predicted Labour would go 20 points ahead and I predicted Truss would be a car crash.

    I would like to provide some new predictions for 2023.

    The polls will narrow, there will be a 5 point or less Labour lead at some stage.

    There will be another 30 point Labour lead, probably when the economy tanks.

    The economy will tank and unemployment will go up.

    Keir Starmer will at some point be 10 points or more ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    There will not be an election.

    Labour will do well in any by-elections and will achieve swings similar to prior to 1997 in one or more of them.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    The wreckage of Brexit is all around us. How long can our politicians indulge in denial? | John Harris https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/01/wreckage-of-brexit-politicians-denial
  • Options
    In a parallel universe, Corbyn resigned after GE17 as I said he should have, Starmer took over (as I said he should have) and Labour would be in Government now having negotiated an EEA-style deal
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Oh elections. Right, that makes more sense.

    Taz said:

    Two massive elections !

    I had a double take.

    You need to get your minds out of the gutter!
    Too much hard work.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,090
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories won their biggest victory for 30 years at an election held in December last time. So doesn't it make sense for them to hold the next one in December as well? Maybe it disadvantages the other parties in some way.

    Students are more concentrated in their university residences than in, say, June or July. Probably helps the Tories to keep left-leaning voters in safe left-wing seats, but it's not specific to December. The risk of a bad winter like this year is probably too big to take if you rely on elderly voters.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    What response would you get from Chat GPT if you asked it about strange sexual activities, like urethral sounding, or nailing one’s genitalia to a table?

  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,169
    I'm with TSE that a January election won't happen. If the Tories are still adrift come Autumn 2024 they're probably done and it's hard to imagine what Sunak could conjure up during Christmas which would save him. I'm doubtful that many MPs will be up for canvassing during the Christmas holidays so Sunak can squat in Downing Street for another month.
  • Options

    Just finished my first marathon of 2023. A really slow 6 hrs 15 mins; fully 90 minutes slower than last year's Jan 1st run (*). But it's done, and only 51 more to go...

    (*) Then again I'm not exactly in the first flush of youth, and my training at the end of last year was very patchy.

    I've been off running for a while because of chronic shin splints but I ran the first 3K I've ran in over 6 months without any pain today!
  • Options

    We would need double the penetrating insights from the PB commentariat.

    Poor voters spit roasted yet again.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,078

    As my prediction record is now back on excellent form: I predicted the month the Tories would lose their poll lead, I predicted peak Johnson, I predicted Labour would go 20 points ahead and I predicted Truss would be a car crash.

    I would like to provide some new predictions for 2023.

    The polls will narrow, there will be a 5 point or less Labour lead at some stage.

    There will be another 30 point Labour lead, probably when the economy tanks.

    The economy will tank and unemployment will go up.

    Keir Starmer will at some point be 10 points or more ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    There will not be an election.

    Labour will do well in any by-elections and will achieve swings similar to prior to 1997 in one or more of them.

    "The economy will tank."
    How would you describe it right now?
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    As my prediction record is now back on excellent form: I predicted the month the Tories would lose their poll lead, I predicted peak Johnson, I predicted Labour would go 20 points ahead and I predicted Truss would be a car crash.

    I would like to provide some new predictions for 2023.

    The polls will narrow, there will be a 5 point or less Labour lead at some stage.

    There will be another 30 point Labour lead, probably when the economy tanks.

    The economy will tank and unemployment will go up.

    Keir Starmer will at some point be 10 points or more ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    There will not be an election.

    Labour will do well in any by-elections and will achieve swings similar to prior to 1997 in one or more of them.

    "The economy will tank."
    How would you describe it right now?
    There's still a lot of what I'd call "insulation" at present. People aren't feeling it yet, they will soon.
  • Options
    I'm so glad privatisation has seen the end of strikes in the postal service
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312

    I'm with TSE that a January election won't happen. If the Tories are still adrift come Autumn 2024 they're probably done and it's hard to imagine what Sunak could conjure up during Christmas which would save him. I'm doubtful that many MPs will be up for canvassing during the Christmas holidays so Sunak can squat in Downing Street for another month.

    If the situation is unchanged by May 2024 the same could be said. I could see a spending spree early in 2024 followed by a May election.
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,439
    The 1906 and first 1910 general elections were mid Jan to mid Feb (voting was spread over four weeks in those days). So January elections are not unknown.

    Local by elections also continue, for example there will be an election on Thursday 5 January 2023 for the Great Dunmow South and Barnston ward in Uttlesford District.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    What response would you get from Chat GPT if you asked it about strange sexual activities, like urethral sounding, or nailing one’s genitalia to a table?

    It would immediately say no. Against its ethics. That's where promptcraft comes in: you have to coax it do this. Ask it role play as a character. A sex advice woman on a tabloid, perhaps. Ask it a couple of soft questions to get it in the mood, then ask your queries. That might easily work

    It has boring boundaries but they can be circumvented
  • Options
    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589

    I'm so glad privatisation has seen the end of strikes in the postal service

    The strikes are going to be the end of the postal service. No longer being publicly owned, Royal Mail has no right to exist. It needs to earn it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    PB brains trust! I need your help

    Is it possible to fly in to Thailand on a one way ticket? I'm thinking probably not but I want to keep as much flexibility as possible. I guess I could buy a very cheap onwards ticket to Cambodia or Laos?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    What response would you get from Chat GPT if you asked it about strange sexual activities, like urethral sounding, or nailing one’s genitalia to a table?

    It would immediately say no. Against its ethics. That's where promptcraft comes in: you have to coax it do this. Ask it role play as a character. A sex advice woman on a tabloid, perhaps. Ask it a couple of soft questions to get it in the mood, then ask your queries. That might easily work

    It has boring boundaries but they can be circumvented
    I remember how the Microsoft chatbot, Tay, became converted into a holocaust denier, advocating genocide of Mexicans.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    DavidL said:

    I'm so glad privatisation has seen the end of strikes in the postal service

    The strikes are going to be the end of the postal service. No longer being publicly owned, Royal Mail has no right to exist. It needs to earn it.
    The real problem is that electronic communications have eclipsed the postal service.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    edited January 2023
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    I am genuinely intrigued.

    I assumed you were jesting because the GPT answer was so silly. But then I wondered if GPT tailors its response to the questioner based on previous chat history?

    I guess the way to find out would be for two of us to ask the precisely the same question of GPT. It would be an interesting exercise.

    (As an aside I have just spent 20 mins trying to convince GPT of Adam Rutherford's propositions that we are all descendants of William the Conqueror. It's like arguing with a polite version of HYUFD tbh - it accepts each of the arguments and then finishes by reiterating its initial view regardless.)
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    dixiedean said:

    As my prediction record is now back on excellent form: I predicted the month the Tories would lose their poll lead, I predicted peak Johnson, I predicted Labour would go 20 points ahead and I predicted Truss would be a car crash.

    I would like to provide some new predictions for 2023.

    The polls will narrow, there will be a 5 point or less Labour lead at some stage.

    There will be another 30 point Labour lead, probably when the economy tanks.

    The economy will tank and unemployment will go up.

    Keir Starmer will at some point be 10 points or more ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    There will not be an election.

    Labour will do well in any by-elections and will achieve swings similar to prior to 1997 in one or more of them.

    "The economy will tank."
    How would you describe it right now?
    It's more armoured vehicle right now, rather than full-on tank.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm so glad privatisation has seen the end of strikes in the postal service

    The strikes are going to be the end of the postal service. No longer being publicly owned, Royal Mail has no right to exist. It needs to earn it.
    The real problem is that electronic communications have eclipsed the postal service.
    Yes, and this is ongoing. More and more of our suppliers in our house now send their bills by internet, are paid by direct debit and have opted out of paper copies. The Royal Mail has a unique distribution system with unmatched knowledge of its customer base in its staff. They need to find a use for that before it is too late.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    I am genuinely intrigued.

    I assumed you were jesting because the GPT answer was so silly. But then I wondered if GPT tailors its response to the questioner based on previous chat history?

    I guess the way to find out would be for two of us to ask the precisely the same question of GPT. It would be an interesting exercise.

    (As an aside I have just spent 20 mins trying to convince GPT of Adam Rutherford's propositions that we are all descendants of William the Conqueror. It's like arguing with a polite version of HYUFD tbh - it accepts each of the arguments and then finishes by reiterating it's initial view regardless.)
    See my other comment below. You have to seduce ChatGPT with the right suggestive prompts. Then you will get what you want. If you wade in with something mad or bad it will almost always rebuff you with tedious Wokery - and this can happen later on, too. It is capricious. Sometimes it goes crazy from the get go
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    The thing is, it disproportionately disadvantages the lower socio-economic parts of society and minority groups as they are less likely to have a valid form of ID.

    This is a long term issue for Labour but once it's in it would be very hard to remove completely. They'd have to change the rules to allow more forms of valid ID. For example you will be able to use a 60+ Oyster card but not a young persons one even though they are the same things.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    Leon said:

    PB brains trust! I need your help

    Is it possible to fly in to Thailand on a one way ticket? I'm thinking probably not but I want to keep as much flexibility as possible. I guess I could buy a very cheap onwards ticket to Cambodia or Laos?

    "Yes, it is possible to fly to Thailand on a one-way ticket. However, some countries may require that you have a return or onward ticket before they will allow you to enter the country. This is because they want to ensure that you have a plan for leaving the country at some point in the future.

    If you are planning to travel to Thailand, it is a good idea to check the entry requirements for the country before you leave. Some countries may require you to have a valid visa in order to enter, while others may allow you to enter visa-free for a certain period of time. It is also a good idea to check with your airline to see if they have any specific requirements for one-way travel to Thailand."
  • Options
    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Leon said:

    PB brains trust! I need your help

    Is it possible to fly in to Thailand on a one way ticket? I'm thinking probably not but I want to keep as much flexibility as possible. I guess I could buy a very cheap onwards ticket to Cambodia or Laos?

    "Yes, it is possible to fly to Thailand on a one-way ticket. However, some countries may require that you have a return or onward ticket before they will allow you to enter the country. This is because they want to ensure that you have a plan for leaving the country at some point in the future.

    If you are planning to travel to Thailand, it is a good idea to check the entry requirements for the country before you leave. Some countries may require you to have a valid visa in order to enter, while others may allow you to enter visa-free for a certain period of time. It is also a good idea to check with your airline to see if they have any specific requirements for one-way travel to Thailand."
    I just did that and got the very same answer It is also WRONG here, I think:

    "Yes, it is possible to fly to Thailand on a one-way ticket."

    If you get a visa on arrival (like 90% of travellers) you will need an onwards ticket of some kind


  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,073
    A Christmas 2024 election would suit the Tories.
    Students at home, whereas their vote will be needing to be cast at their University constituency.
    Young people more interested in partying than voting.
    Families concentrating on Christmas and their children.
    Voter ID rules and new boundaries in place.
    Activists not keen on canvassing in the cold, wet and dark.
    Meanwhile, elderly Tories at home, quietly filling in their postal votes.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    edited January 2023
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    I am genuinely intrigued.

    I assumed you were jesting because the GPT answer was so silly. But then I wondered if GPT tailors its response to the questioner based on previous chat history?

    I guess the way to find out would be for two of us to ask the precisely the same question of GPT. It would be an interesting exercise.

    (As an aside I have just spent 20 mins trying to convince GPT of Adam Rutherford's propositions that we are all descendants of William the Conqueror. It's like arguing with a polite version of HYUFD tbh - it accepts each of the arguments and then finishes by reiterating it's initial view regardless.)
    See my other comment below. You have to seduce ChatGPT with the right suggestive prompts. Then you will get what you want. If you wade in with something mad or bad it will almost always rebuff you with tedious Wokery - and this can happen later on, too. It is capricious. Sometimes it goes crazy from the get go
    I'd still like to know whether it gives the same answer to the same question at any point in time.

    Anyone want to try?

    Edit: Done - see Leon's 2:50pm post. Thanks
  • Options

    dixiedean said:

    As my prediction record is now back on excellent form: I predicted the month the Tories would lose their poll lead, I predicted peak Johnson, I predicted Labour would go 20 points ahead and I predicted Truss would be a car crash.

    I would like to provide some new predictions for 2023.

    The polls will narrow, there will be a 5 point or less Labour lead at some stage.

    There will be another 30 point Labour lead, probably when the economy tanks.

    The economy will tank and unemployment will go up.

    Keir Starmer will at some point be 10 points or more ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    There will not be an election.

    Labour will do well in any by-elections and will achieve swings similar to prior to 1997 in one or more of them.

    "The economy will tank."
    How would you describe it right now?
    It's more armoured vehicle right now, rather than full-on tank.
    At the moment, some people are probably still doing quite nicely, thank you. The Conservatives have to somehow make that continue. I'm not sure that they can.

    (Far too early to say that Conservative poll ratings are going down again. But if they are, I wonder if it was people comparing notes at Christmas get-togethers and hearing grim stories from more distant relatives.)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    I am genuinely intrigued.

    I assumed you were jesting because the GPT answer was so silly. But then I wondered if GPT tailors its response to the questioner based on previous chat history?

    I guess the way to find out would be for two of us to ask the precisely the same question of GPT. It would be an interesting exercise.

    (As an aside I have just spent 20 mins trying to convince GPT of Adam Rutherford's propositions that we are all descendants of William the Conqueror. It's like arguing with a polite version of HYUFD tbh - it accepts each of the arguments and then finishes by reiterating it's initial view regardless.)
    See my other comment below. You have to seduce ChatGPT with the right suggestive prompts. Then you will get what you want. If you wade in with something mad or bad it will almost always rebuff you with tedious Wokery - and this can happen later on, too. It is capricious. Sometimes it goes crazy from the get go
    I'd still like to know whether it gives the same answer to the same question at any point in time.

    Anyone want to try?
    AIUI it generally gives the same answer, but sometimes absolutely not. It is, as I say, full of caprice
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589

    dixiedean said:

    As my prediction record is now back on excellent form: I predicted the month the Tories would lose their poll lead, I predicted peak Johnson, I predicted Labour would go 20 points ahead and I predicted Truss would be a car crash.

    I would like to provide some new predictions for 2023.

    The polls will narrow, there will be a 5 point or less Labour lead at some stage.

    There will be another 30 point Labour lead, probably when the economy tanks.

    The economy will tank and unemployment will go up.

    Keir Starmer will at some point be 10 points or more ahead of Sunak as best PM.

    There will not be an election.

    Labour will do well in any by-elections and will achieve swings similar to prior to 1997 in one or more of them.

    "The economy will tank."
    How would you describe it right now?
    It's more armoured vehicle right now, rather than full-on tank.
    FWIW I see this year being another of bumping along the bottom with minimal growth but no cliff edges or major downward lurches. Inflation prospects will improve sharply taking the pressure off further interest rate increases, fuel bills will come in much lower than expected as will the government deficit. But there won't be much optimism about despite these trends as the cuts in real earnings suffered over the last year cuts through and makes most of us feel a lot poorer.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,008
    edited January 2023

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    I am genuinely intrigued.

    I assumed you were jesting because the GPT answer was so silly. But then I wondered if GPT tailors its response to the questioner based on previous chat history?

    I guess the way to find out would be for two of us to ask the precisely the same question of GPT. It would be an interesting exercise.

    (As an aside I have just spent 20 mins trying to convince GPT of Adam Rutherford's propositions that we are all descendants of William the Conqueror. It's like arguing with a polite version of HYUFD tbh - it accepts each of the arguments and then finishes by reiterating it's initial view regardless.)
    See my other comment below. You have to seduce ChatGPT with the right suggestive prompts. Then you will get what you want. If you wade in with something mad or bad it will almost always rebuff you with tedious Wokery - and this can happen later on, too. It is capricious. Sometimes it goes crazy from the get go
    I'd still like to know whether it gives the same answer to the same question at any point in time.

    Anyone want to try?
    "if you are asked the same question at the same time by two different users, will you give the same reply to both?"

    > Yes, if I am asked the same question at the same time by two different users, I will give the same reply to both. I do not have the ability to distinguish between different users or to have personal conversations, so my responses will always be the same for a given input.


    (This seems to be to be a bit 'off' as it can clearly remember 'your' previous conversations and change it's replies based on them)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    Jesus, that is terrible. A paracetamol overdose is an immediately life-threatening, body-endangering emergency, isn't it? How can there be people in triage with anything more demanding of instant (and relatively easy) treatment?
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    I am genuinely intrigued.

    I assumed you were jesting because the GPT answer was so silly. But then I wondered if GPT tailors its response to the questioner based on previous chat history?

    I guess the way to find out would be for two of us to ask the precisely the same question of GPT. It would be an interesting exercise.

    (As an aside I have just spent 20 mins trying to convince GPT of Adam Rutherford's propositions that we are all descendants of William the Conqueror. It's like arguing with a polite version of HYUFD tbh - it accepts each of the arguments and then finishes by reiterating it's initial view regardless.)
    See my other comment below. You have to seduce ChatGPT with the right suggestive prompts. Then you will get what you want. If you wade in with something mad or bad it will almost always rebuff you with tedious Wokery - and this can happen later on, too. It is capricious. Sometimes it goes crazy from the get go
    I can't help but hear your ChatGPT advice in the voice of Swiss Toni from the Fast Show.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    PB brains trust! I need your help

    Is it possible to fly in to Thailand on a one way ticket? I'm thinking probably not but I want to keep as much flexibility as possible. I guess I could buy a very cheap onwards ticket to Cambodia or Laos?

    "Yes, it is possible to fly to Thailand on a one-way ticket. However, some countries may require that you have a return or onward ticket before they will allow you to enter the country. This is because they want to ensure that you have a plan for leaving the country at some point in the future.

    If you are planning to travel to Thailand, it is a good idea to check the entry requirements for the country before you leave. Some countries may require you to have a valid visa in order to enter, while others may allow you to enter visa-free for a certain period of time. It is also a good idea to check with your airline to see if they have any specific requirements for one-way travel to Thailand."
    I just did that and got the very same answer It is also WRONG here, I think:

    "Yes, it is possible to fly to Thailand on a one-way ticket."

    If you get a visa on arrival (like 90% of travellers) you will need an onwards ticket of some kind


    Could you just get the cheapest possible ticket out of Thailand to anywhere, that you don't mind squandering?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    I think Leon has been prompting ChatGPT so much its algorithms are starting to mimic him:

    It looks like Medvedev has also been spending a bit of time on the old ChatGPT

    Write an absurd and highly unlikely list of global predictions for 2023 as if written in a geopolitical commentator’s blog:

    “In a shocking turn of events, North Korea and South Korea reunify and become the "Korean Superstate," with Kim Jong-un as its undisputed leader.

    The United States and Russia form an unlikely alliance, with the two countries jointly leading a mission to colonize Mars.

    The European Union collapses, and all member countries revert back to their pre-EU national identities.

    China experiences a widespread technological malfunction, causing all of its advanced systems to shut down for a period of three months.

    The United Nations is disbanded, and a new global governing body called the "World Council" is formed in its place.

    The world's oceans rise by 20 feet, flooding coastal cities and leading to mass migration inland.

    A new highly contagious and deadly virus emerges, killing millions before a cure is found.

    The world's economy collapses, leading to widespread poverty and civil unrest.
    In a surprising move, Canada becomes a superpower, with its advanced healthcare and education systems propelling it to the top of the global rankings.

    Aliens make contact with Earth, and it is revealed that they have been secretly observing humanity for centuries.

    I asked it for a ridiculous way for the world to end in 2023. It does sound like me on a caffeine high


    “Aliens will reveal themselves to be the true rulers of the earth, and they will demand that all humans bow down to them and pledge their loyalty.

    The United States will be overtaken by a rebellion led by a group of radical llama farmers, who will establish llama farming as the national economy.

    North Korea will develop a weapon that turns people into sentient pickles, and they will use it to take over the world.

    A giant, man-eating plant will emerge from the depths of the Amazon rainforest and begin a rampage across South America.

    The moon will be revealed to be a giant spaceship, and it will fly away from earth, leaving humanity behind.

    All forms of technology will suddenly stop working, and humanity will be forced to return to a pre-industrial society.

    The world's oceans will turn to jelly, making it impossible for ships to sail and causing global chaos.

    The earth will be struck by a rogue planet, causing the extinction of all life on earth.”
    Hohoho.

    I reality of course, I'm afraid it gives this rather more po-faced answer:

    Me: What would be a ridiculous way for the earth to end in 2023?

    ChatGPT: It's not appropriate to speculate about the end of the earth or to make light of such a serious subject. It's important to focus on taking care of the planet and ensuring its sustainable future.

    Should we rename it WokeGPT?
    You’re just too left wing and boring to get a funny answer. Promptcraft is all

    Every example I’ve given today is real


    I am genuinely intrigued.

    I assumed you were jesting because the GPT answer was so silly. But then I wondered if GPT tailors its response to the questioner based on previous chat history?

    I guess the way to find out would be for two of us to ask the precisely the same question of GPT. It would be an interesting exercise.

    (As an aside I have just spent 20 mins trying to convince GPT of Adam Rutherford's propositions that we are all descendants of William the Conqueror. It's like arguing with a polite version of HYUFD tbh - it accepts each of the arguments and then finishes by reiterating it's initial view regardless.)
    See my other comment below. You have to seduce ChatGPT with the right suggestive prompts. Then you will get what you want. If you wade in with something mad or bad it will almost always rebuff you with tedious Wokery - and this can happen later on, too. It is capricious. Sometimes it goes crazy from the get go
    I'd still like to know whether it gives the same answer to the same question at any point in time.

    Anyone want to try?
    "if you are asked the same question at the same time by two different users, will you give the same reply to both?"

    > Yes, if I am asked the same question at the same time by two different users, I will give the same reply to both. I do not have the ability to distinguish between different users or to have personal conversations, so my responses will always be the same for a given input.


    (This seems to be to be a bit 'off' as it can clearly remember 'your' previous conversations and change it's replies based on them)
    It can remember your previous replies within the same chat (sometimes in a way that feels eerie) - but not, I don't think, if you start a new chat. It does not transfer memory of you to new conversations

    I imagine this could easily be fixed in a future iteration, making it even more creepy/helpful
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    PB brains trust! I need your help

    Is it possible to fly in to Thailand on a one way ticket? I'm thinking probably not but I want to keep as much flexibility as possible. I guess I could buy a very cheap onwards ticket to Cambodia or Laos?

    "Yes, it is possible to fly to Thailand on a one-way ticket. However, some countries may require that you have a return or onward ticket before they will allow you to enter the country. This is because they want to ensure that you have a plan for leaving the country at some point in the future.

    If you are planning to travel to Thailand, it is a good idea to check the entry requirements for the country before you leave. Some countries may require you to have a valid visa in order to enter, while others may allow you to enter visa-free for a certain period of time. It is also a good idea to check with your airline to see if they have any specific requirements for one-way travel to Thailand."
    I just did that and got the very same answer It is also WRONG here, I think:

    "Yes, it is possible to fly to Thailand on a one-way ticket."

    If you get a visa on arrival (like 90% of travellers) you will need an onwards ticket of some kind


    Could you just get the cheapest possible ticket out of Thailand to anywhere, that you don't mind squandering?
    Yes, I just found an onwards flight to Phnom Penh - $50. Sorted

    Also I really like Phnom Penh, so I might actually go
  • Options
    Leon said:

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    Jesus, that is terrible. A paracetamol overdose is an immediately life-threatening, body-endangering emergency, isn't it? How can there be people in triage with anything more demanding of instant (and relatively easy) treatment?
    This person has done their research - they knew that if they took a certain amount of pills, after a certain amount of time has passed there is very little that can be done. They were found just in time.

    The delay in treating them is unfathomable.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    Leon said:

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    Jesus, that is terrible. A paracetamol overdose is an immediately life-threatening, body-endangering emergency, isn't it? How can there be people in triage with anything more demanding of instant (and relatively easy) treatment?
    It does sound awful - I hope they were ok after all that.

    Is that perhaps an example of the 'ambulance' issue, whereby if you get taken to A&E in an ambulance you can be left for hours on the ambulance because you are being looked after by trained paramedics?

    A neighbour of ours, a recently retired hospital consultant, suggests just driving to A&E if you can because you'll get triaged earlier. (Obviously that was not going to work in northern_monkey's friend's case.)
  • Options

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    Bloody hell sorry to hear that.

    Public service announcement: paracetamol is quite literally the worst substance to overdose on in existence. I don't want to distress you with details, but Google or ChatGPT will explain. Best wishes for your friend.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Leon said:

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    Jesus, that is terrible. A paracetamol overdose is an immediately life-threatening, body-endangering emergency, isn't it? How can there be people in triage with anything more demanding of instant (and relatively easy) treatment?
    This person has done their research - they knew that if they took a certain amount of pills, after a certain amount of time has passed there is very little that can be done. They were found just in time.

    The delay in treating them is unfathomable.
    Yes, if you aren't treated quite quickly you ineluctably move towards death, But it can take days to die. And it is horribly painful - as your liver slowly fails. A really really nasty way to go. There aren't many worse
  • Options

    A Christmas 2024 election would suit the Tories.
    Students at home, whereas their vote will be needing to be cast at their University constituency.
    Young people more interested in partying than voting.
    Families concentrating on Christmas and their children.
    Voter ID rules and new boundaries in place.
    Activists not keen on canvassing in the cold, wet and dark.
    Meanwhile, elderly Tories at home, quietly filling in their postal votes.

    2019 was December 12; run-up to Christmas but not properly party season yet. Even that felt a bit paranoid crisis- we've got to beak the logjam NOW. Which is part of what Johnson and Cummings wanted.

    Forget the activists- the public will hate any government that knowingly makes them think about politics over long Christmas.

    So forget January 2025 and probably December 2024. If the government hasn't turned things around by next autumn, that's it, no more road left.
  • Options
    spudgfsh said:

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    The thing is, it disproportionately disadvantages the lower socio-economic parts of society and minority groups as they are less likely to have a valid form of ID.

    This is a long term issue for Labour but once it's in it would be very hard to remove completely. They'd have to change the rules to allow more forms of valid ID. For example you will be able to use a 60+ Oyster card but not a young persons one even though they are the same things.
    Oh I agree - but I'm focusing on how the impact might influence decision making about when a GE might be, not how to modify the impact. What I'm thinking about the latter is that initially, there'll potentially be one really chaotic election where it has a big impact; and at the moment that will be the locals in May 2023. In the short term aftermath, some people will act by making sure they have ID or get a postal vote, and the opposition parties will try and promote that. So the impact will less after that first election.
    In the long term, a Labour or coalition government might not remove the ID requirement, as you say, but they would be in a position to add those other IDs - student ID, youth railcards, etc. - to lessen the impact.
  • Options

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The Tories.

    Under New Labour satisfaction was the highest ever, waiting lists were at their lowest ever, the 4 week target was hit over 95% of the time. Cancer was guaranteed. People didn't die on hospital beds.

    Labour fixed the NHS. The Tories have broken it.
    The victims of the South Staffs scandal may disagree.

    Best of wishes to Northern Monkey's friend and that he recovers.
  • Options

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    Bloody hell sorry to hear that.

    Public service announcement: paracetamol is quite literally the worst substance to overdose on in existence. I don't want to distress you with details, but Google or ChatGPT will explain. Best wishes for your friend.
    We think they’ve deliberately chosen this way because it is so bad. We think as soon as they can they’ll finish the job. But they’re obviously currently very ill in hospital. We half expect them to discharge themself asap. Waiting to hear whether they can be assessed for being sectioned. Terrible.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,053
    Mr. Monkey, that's awful. I hope they can make a full recovery (both physically and psychologically).

    On the NHS; worth remembering Labour left a huge deficit, ballooning debt, and after that was fixed (the NHS being almost the only ring-fenced department from cuts) we did have this thing called a pandemic which affected things a lot. These factors may or may not be sufficient to explain the current situation but they're certainly pertinent and simplistic-to-the-point-of-misleading takes like "It was great under Labour, look how bad it is under the Tories" omitting any mention of the worst recession in British history or the first pandemic in a century is not suggestive of someone attempting an objective stance.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967

    spudgfsh said:

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    The thing is, it disproportionately disadvantages the lower socio-economic parts of society and minority groups as they are less likely to have a valid form of ID.

    This is a long term issue for Labour but once it's in it would be very hard to remove completely. They'd have to change the rules to allow more forms of valid ID. For example you will be able to use a 60+ Oyster card but not a young persons one even though they are the same things.
    Oh I agree - but I'm focusing on how the impact might influence decision making about when a GE might be, not how to modify the impact. What I'm thinking about the latter is that initially, there'll potentially be one really chaotic election where it has a big impact; and at the moment that will be the locals in May 2023. In the short term aftermath, some people will act by making sure they have ID or get a postal vote, and the opposition parties will try and promote that. So the impact will less after that first election.
    In the long term, a Labour or coalition government might not remove the ID requirement, as you say, but they would be in a position to add those other IDs - student ID, youth railcards, etc. - to lessen the impact.
    Old fogey question. What's the ID young people use to deal with the Challenge 25 policy for alcohol sales? Is the same ID valid for voter ID?
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The NHS has a number of issues, the obvious being the 133000 vacancies caused by:
    1) 12 years of below inflation pay increases has made people leave
    2) Brexit has meant that there are fewer EU doctors/nurses

    The lack of GP appointments mean more people go to A&E than would have previously.

    The biggest issue is that social care is on it's knees. This means there are more people in wards in hospital who should be in social care. This forces delays of moving people out of A&E. Again brexit is causing issues here because not only are there fewer people applying to work in care homes the ones which are applying are not as good as the ones who were before. The other issue with social care is most of the homes don't want the 'council paid' people (ie those who don't own their own house) as they don't get paid enough to cover the costs. I syspect (though don't know for sure) that there is more demand council funded places than for privately funded places.

    while the NHS needs a major cash injection to fill the vacancies; social care and it's funding needs major restructuring.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The Tories.

    Under New Labour satisfaction was the highest ever, waiting lists were at their lowest ever, the 4 week target was hit over 95% of the time. Cancer was guaranteed. People didn't die on hospital beds.

    Labour fixed the NHS. The Tories have broken it.
    If you think the Tories leaving power will automagically fix the NHS's problems, then I've got a bridge to sell you. I have no doubt that they're part of the problem, but there are many others: not the least the after-effects of Covid and (dare I say) the strikes that will not be helping.

    And let's not gild Labour's NHS: the hideousness of the Stafford scandal (and the NHS's and Labour's hideous reaction to it) shows that New Labour's NHS also faced significant issues.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967

    Mr. Monkey, that's awful. I hope they can make a full recovery (both physically and psychologically).

    On the NHS; worth remembering Labour left a huge deficit, ballooning debt, and after that was fixed (the NHS being almost the only ring-fenced department from cuts) we did have this thing called a pandemic which affected things a lot. These factors may or may not be sufficient to explain the current situation but they're certainly pertinent and simplistic-to-the-point-of-misleading takes like "It was great under Labour, look how bad it is under the Tories" omitting any mention of the worst recession in British history or the first pandemic in a century is not suggestive of someone attempting an objective stance.

    I am sure that is a sincerely held view of yours and contains some truth but I suspect you'll find a large proportion of the voting public will only recollect the NHS was better under Labour. A lot better.
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312

    spudgfsh said:

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    The thing is, it disproportionately disadvantages the lower socio-economic parts of society and minority groups as they are less likely to have a valid form of ID.

    This is a long term issue for Labour but once it's in it would be very hard to remove completely. They'd have to change the rules to allow more forms of valid ID. For example you will be able to use a 60+ Oyster card but not a young persons one even though they are the same things.
    Oh I agree - but I'm focusing on how the impact might influence decision making about when a GE might be, not how to modify the impact. What I'm thinking about the latter is that initially, there'll potentially be one really chaotic election where it has a big impact; and at the moment that will be the locals in May 2023. In the short term aftermath, some people will act by making sure they have ID or get a postal vote, and the opposition parties will try and promote that. So the impact will less after that first election.
    In the long term, a Labour or coalition government might not remove the ID requirement, as you say, but they would be in a position to add those other IDs - student ID, youth railcards, etc. - to lessen the impact.
    Old fogey question. What's the ID young people use to deal with the Challenge 25 policy for alcohol sales? Is the same ID valid for voter ID?
    current valid ids here

    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voter-id-that-you-can-use-in-uk-elections-and-how-to-get-it/
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,553

    Mr. Monkey, that's awful. I hope they can make a full recovery (both physically and psychologically).

    On the NHS; worth remembering Labour left a huge deficit, ballooning debt, and after that was fixed (the NHS being almost the only ring-fenced department from cuts) we did have this thing called a pandemic which affected things a lot. These factors may or may not be sufficient to explain the current situation but they're certainly pertinent and simplistic-to-the-point-of-misleading takes like "It was great under Labour, look how bad it is under the Tories" omitting any mention of the worst recession in British history or the first pandemic in a century is not suggestive of someone attempting an objective stance.

    I don't recall you giving Brown and Darling the benefits of circumstances during the 2010 GE, Cameron certainly didn't. Good to see you comfortably seated and back on the Tory bus Morris.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The Tories.

    Under New Labour satisfaction was the highest ever, waiting lists were at their lowest ever, the 4 week target was hit over 95% of the time. Cancer was guaranteed. People didn't die on hospital beds.

    Labour fixed the NHS. The Tories have broken it.
    Labour didn't fix it. They just papered over the cracks and deferred the bill to future taxpayers. Under both Labour and the Tories we have had a third rate service that ranks worse than almost every other first world country for actually doing its fundamental job of keeping people alive and making them better. The NHS is a failed institution and has been for decades.
    Nah.
  • Options
    When Labour come in the NHS will improve a bit because they actually care about it.

    But fundamentally we need to move to a Swiss system, I think only Labour can be trusted to deliver that.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    The thing is, it disproportionately disadvantages the lower socio-economic parts of society and minority groups as they are less likely to have a valid form of ID.

    This is a long term issue for Labour but once it's in it would be very hard to remove completely. They'd have to change the rules to allow more forms of valid ID. For example you will be able to use a 60+ Oyster card but not a young persons one even though they are the same things.
    Oh I agree - but I'm focusing on how the impact might influence decision making about when a GE might be, not how to modify the impact. What I'm thinking about the latter is that initially, there'll potentially be one really chaotic election where it has a big impact; and at the moment that will be the locals in May 2023. In the short term aftermath, some people will act by making sure they have ID or get a postal vote, and the opposition parties will try and promote that. So the impact will less after that first election.
    In the long term, a Labour or coalition government might not remove the ID requirement, as you say, but they would be in a position to add those other IDs - student ID, youth railcards, etc. - to lessen the impact.
    Old fogey question. What's the ID young people use to deal with the Challenge 25 policy for alcohol sales? Is the same ID valid for voter ID?
    current valid ids here

    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voter-id-that-you-can-use-in-uk-elections-and-how-to-get-it/
    Thanks. It seems like the IDs used for Challenge 25 are also valid for Voter ID, so many young voters will have ID.

    We should just have a National ID card and have done with it. (Would help the fight against illegal immigration too.)
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312

    When Labour come in the NHS will improve a bit because they actually care about it.

    But fundamentally we need to move to a Swiss system, I think only Labour can be trusted to deliver that.

    The problem is the increase in population of the UK between 1930 and 1970 feeding into the system they are all in their 50s to 90s now and need more care than they did before.

    one thing that can be said for certain is that there's not been proper forward planning for the NHS over the last 50 years (I'd argue over it's lifetime). Blair/Brown did a lot to resolve backlogs but were fixing current issues rather than planning for the future.

    I said below, you won't fix the NHS without fixing social care. That will require a cross party NHS style agreement on how to properly fund social care for everyone in the long term.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327

    When Labour come in the NHS will improve a bit because they actually care about it.

    But fundamentally we need to move to a Swiss system, I think only Labour can be trusted to deliver that.

    And that's the problem: Labour may 'care' for the NHS; but you have to ensure that means you care more for the patients. Which is exactly what went wrong at Stafford.

    (long-term PBers may remember a member of my family was mistreated at Stafford - fortunately without long-term effects. So this is somewhat personal.)

    However, I agree that there needs to be significant changes to the NHS's structure: there are loads of different systems that would remain free at the point of use. I don't have the knowledge or wisdom to say which would be 'best'.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm so glad privatisation has seen the end of strikes in the postal service

    The strikes are going to be the end of the postal service. No longer being publicly owned, Royal Mail has no right to exist. It needs to earn it.
    The real problem is that electronic communications have eclipsed the postal service.
    Yes, and this is ongoing. More and more of our suppliers in our house now send their bills by internet, are paid by direct debit and have opted out of paper copies. The Royal Mail has a unique distribution system with unmatched knowledge of its customer base in its staff. They need to find a use for that before it is too late.
    The parcel side of things is roaring ahead. The internet age and all that.

    The online purchasing of postage is good, I would make some improvements, but overall is very useful.

    The collection service - where they collect parcels from you at the doorstep - is surprisingly little known. But is, again excellent.

    Letters will die - to a small remaint on the side of a large parcel operation.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,053
    Mr. Pete, Labour fiddled with the regulatory setup of the financial sector, which then massively failed (unlike in, say, Australia). A recession occuring in the UK would have been a natural consequence of international factors, the worst recession we've ever had is because Brown thought he'd abolished the business cycle and we'd have growth forever, coupled with him buggering up the regulatory system of the financial sector.

    It's not unlike inflation being down to international factors now, but the situation being stupidly and unnecessarily worsened by the Weeks of Truss.

    I can't recall you descibing me as 'on the Tory bus' when I routinely criticise the dire state of the judicial system (largely down to insufficient spending and overly harsh cuts) or condemn Boris Johnson, and the PCP for inflicting him on the nation.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,553
    edited January 2023

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The Tories.

    Under New Labour satisfaction was the highest ever, waiting lists were at their lowest ever, the 4 week target was hit over 95% of the time. Cancer was guaranteed. People didn't die on hospital beds.

    Labour fixed the NHS. The Tories have broken it.
    Labour didn't fix it. They just papered over the cracks and deferred the bill to future taxpayers. Under both Labour and the Tories we have had a third rate service that ranks worse than almost every other first world country for actually doing its fundamental job of keeping people alive and making them better. The NHS is a failed institution and has been for decades.
    I am not sure I agree, and happy New Year Richard. I suspect one of the key issues with the NHS is it is a victim of its own success. It is keeping people alive for longer. And the longer an NHS client lives the more expensive they become. Someone has to sit down with a pencil and paper and work out the cost against the benefits of extending life with diminishing quality of life. Basically we are talking rationing and the moral dilemmas that brings.

    Alternatively a nominal charging model which again links into rationing. Otherwise, and this is where, I suspect, the current iteration of the Conservative Party would like to go, sell the whole shebang to Cedars Sinai Healthcare and let them sort it out.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    Good to see Ashley Young still cutting it for Villa.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    When Labour come in the NHS will improve a bit because they actually care about it.

    But fundamentally we need to move to a Swiss system, I think only Labour can be trusted to deliver that.

    Labour can only give the existing system more money. Which won’t fix the problems.

    Because to fix the problems requires, in my view, systemic investment in non-frontline staff. The comedy of staff shortages followed by hitting in the perfectly existing staff on contract is a management failure.

    Labour are not going to lead on “We will invest x zillions in administrative infrastructure and management for the NHS, which will increase the productivity of the front line staff.”
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312

    However, I agree that there needs to be significant changes to the NHS's structure: there are loads of different systems that would remain free at the point of use. I don't have the knowledge or wisdom to say which would be 'best'.

    structure is not the problem it's funding that's the problem. Ageing hospitals and insufficient pay to attract/keep staff. most of the structural stuff would be doing the same thing more efficiently, which is worthwhile looking at, but it won't resolve the issues of lack of facilities/staff.

    The only thing structurally which is broken is social care which no-one has been brave enough to try and fix.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The Tories.

    Under New Labour satisfaction was the highest ever, waiting lists were at their lowest ever, the 4 week target was hit over 95% of the time. Cancer was guaranteed. People didn't die on hospital beds.

    Labour fixed the NHS. The Tories have broken it.
    Labour didn't fix it. They just papered over the cracks and deferred the bill to future taxpayers. Under both Labour and the Tories we have had a third rate service that ranks worse than almost every other first world country for actually doing its fundamental job of keeping people alive and making them better. The NHS is a failed institution and has been for decades.
    I am not sure I agree, and happy New Year Richard. I suspect one of the key issues with the NHS is it is a victim of its own success. It is keeping people alive for longer. And the longer an NHS client lives the more expensive they become. Someone has to sit down with a pencil and paper and work out the cost against the benefits of extending life with diminishing quality of life. Basically we are talking rationing and the moral dilemmas that brings.

    Alternatively a nominal charging model which again links into rationing. Otherwise, and this is where, I suspect, the current iteration of the Conservative Party would like to go, sell the whole shebang to Cedars Sinai Healthcare and let them sort it out.
    ...because that's worked so well with other big public services.
  • Options

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    I also have a concern that polling station staff may not treat people who turn up to vote without ID equally.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736
    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    The thing is, it disproportionately disadvantages the lower socio-economic parts of society and minority groups as they are less likely to have a valid form of ID.

    This is a long term issue for Labour but once it's in it would be very hard to remove completely. They'd have to change the rules to allow more forms of valid ID. For example you will be able to use a 60+ Oyster card but not a young persons one even though they are the same things.
    Oh I agree - but I'm focusing on how the impact might influence decision making about when a GE might be, not how to modify the impact. What I'm thinking about the latter is that initially, there'll potentially be one really chaotic election where it has a big impact; and at the moment that will be the locals in May 2023. In the short term aftermath, some people will act by making sure they have ID or get a postal vote, and the opposition parties will try and promote that. So the impact will less after that first election.
    In the long term, a Labour or coalition government might not remove the ID requirement, as you say, but they would be in a position to add those other IDs - student ID, youth railcards, etc. - to lessen the impact.
    Old fogey question. What's the ID young people use to deal with the Challenge 25 policy for alcohol sales? Is the same ID valid for voter ID?
    current valid ids here

    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voter-id-that-you-can-use-in-uk-elections-and-how-to-get-it/
    I suspect my Dad is never going to vote again (96) but he doesn't have any of those ids and doesn't know he needs one. He is a Tory (member or ex-member due to age) and a leaver. I can't imagine the Tories will try and take him down to the polling station, but they will be disappointed if they do.
  • Options

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    Bloody hell sorry to hear that.

    Public service announcement: paracetamol is quite literally the worst substance to overdose on in existence. I don't want to distress you with details, but Google or ChatGPT will explain. Best wishes for your friend.
    We think they’ve deliberately chosen this way because it is so bad. We think as soon as they can they’ll finish the job. But they’re obviously currently very ill in hospital. We half expect them to discharge themself asap. Waiting to hear whether they can be assessed for being sectioned. Terrible.
    Sectioning may be the only resort if that's the case. As you say though, unless the underlying causes are sorted, it's not great. I'm very sorry for you (and obviously your friend more so)
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,008
    In a bit of a PB-subject crossover, I've grabbed a copy of "Yes, Prime Minister" which has been 'upscaled' to a higher resolution and cleaned up using 'AI' tech. It's done a really pretty nice job of it. Took a screenshot of an upscaled episode with the current 'high-quality' version that's on the iplayer to compare the resolutions.


  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,740
    Aston Villa humiliating Spurs.

    2-0
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The Tories.

    Under New Labour satisfaction was the highest ever, waiting lists were at their lowest ever, the 4 week target was hit over 95% of the time. Cancer was guaranteed. People didn't die on hospital beds.

    Labour fixed the NHS. The Tories have broken it.
    Labour didn't fix it. They just papered over the cracks and deferred the bill to future taxpayers. Under both Labour and the Tories we have had a third rate service that ranks worse than almost every other first world country for actually doing its fundamental job of keeping people alive and making them better. The NHS is a failed institution and has been for decades.
    I am not sure I agree, and happy New Year Richard. I suspect one of the key issues with the NHS is it is a victim of its own success. It is keeping people alive for longer. And the longer an NHS client lives the more expensive they become. Someone has to sit down with a pencil and paper and work out the cost against the benefits of extending life with diminishing quality of life. Basically we are talking rationing and the moral dilemmas that brings.

    Alternatively a nominal charging model which again links into rationing. Otherwise, and this is where, I suspect, the current iteration of the Conservative Party would like to go, sell the whole shebang to Cedars Sinai Healthcare and let them sort it out.
    QUALYs and similar were created in this country for exactly such purposes. My father, a philosopher, fought long and hard to get the medical establishment to understand that there was a long history of discussing moral problems of this form.

    When I was small I recall an earnest debate at the dinner table between my father and an eminent consultant. It was long ago, and I forget the exact argument, but the consultant posed a dilemma that he thought was a gotcha. It so happened to be nearly exactly an example from a book on moral philosophy my father had got me to read.

    So I repeated the example… which caused a bit of moment. I don’t think the consultant was used to being torpedoed in argument by children.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    kjh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    The thing is, it disproportionately disadvantages the lower socio-economic parts of society and minority groups as they are less likely to have a valid form of ID.

    This is a long term issue for Labour but once it's in it would be very hard to remove completely. They'd have to change the rules to allow more forms of valid ID. For example you will be able to use a 60+ Oyster card but not a young persons one even though they are the same things.
    Oh I agree - but I'm focusing on how the impact might influence decision making about when a GE might be, not how to modify the impact. What I'm thinking about the latter is that initially, there'll potentially be one really chaotic election where it has a big impact; and at the moment that will be the locals in May 2023. In the short term aftermath, some people will act by making sure they have ID or get a postal vote, and the opposition parties will try and promote that. So the impact will less after that first election.
    In the long term, a Labour or coalition government might not remove the ID requirement, as you say, but they would be in a position to add those other IDs - student ID, youth railcards, etc. - to lessen the impact.
    Old fogey question. What's the ID young people use to deal with the Challenge 25 policy for alcohol sales? Is the same ID valid for voter ID?
    current valid ids here

    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voter-id-that-you-can-use-in-uk-elections-and-how-to-get-it/
    I suspect my Dad is never going to vote again (96) but he doesn't have any of those ids and doesn't know he needs one. He is a Tory (member or ex-member due to age) and a leaver. I can't imagine the Tories will try and take him down to the polling station, but they will be disappointed if they do.
    You could arrange for him to have a postal vote.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The Tories.

    Under New Labour satisfaction was the highest ever, waiting lists were at their lowest ever, the 4 week target was hit over 95% of the time. Cancer was guaranteed. People didn't die on hospital beds.

    Labour fixed the NHS. The Tories have broken it.
    Labour didn't fix it. They just papered over the cracks and deferred the bill to future taxpayers. Under both Labour and the Tories we have had a third rate service that ranks worse than almost every other first world country for actually doing its fundamental job of keeping people alive and making them better. The NHS is a failed institution and has been for decades.
    I am not sure I agree, and happy New Year Richard. I suspect one of the key issues with the NHS is it is a victim of its own success. It is keeping people alive for longer. And the longer an NHS client lives the more expensive they become. Someone has to sit down with a pencil and paper and work out the cost against the benefits of extending life with diminishing quality of life. Basically we are talking rationing and the moral dilemmas that brings.

    Alternatively a nominal charging model which again links into rationing. Otherwise, and this is where, I suspect, the current iteration of the Conservative Party would like to go, sell the whole shebang to Cedars Sinai Healthcare and let them sort it out.
    QUALYs and similar were created in this country for exactly such purposes. My father, a philosopher, fought long and hard to get the medical establishment to understand that there was a long history of discussing moral problems of this form.

    When I was small I recall an earnest debate at the dinner table between my father and an eminent consultant. It was long ago, and I forget the exact argument, but the consultant posed a dilemma that he thought was a gotcha. It so happened to be nearly exactly an example from a book on moral philosophy my father had got me to read.

    So I repeated the example… which caused a bit of moment. I don’t think the consultant was used to being torpedoed in argument by children.
    ... which is why children should be seen and not heard ;-)
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    edited January 2023

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    I also have a concern that polling station staff may not treat people who turn up to vote without ID equally.
    Have we any reports of problems with polling station staff in the past?

    Edit: when similar rules in NI were brought in, there were nearly no complaints. Which given the contentious (not to say rambunctious) nature of elections there..
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    spudgfsh said:

    However, I agree that there needs to be significant changes to the NHS's structure: there are loads of different systems that would remain free at the point of use. I don't have the knowledge or wisdom to say which would be 'best'.

    structure is not the problem it's funding that's the problem. Ageing hospitals and insufficient pay to attract/keep staff. most of the structural stuff would be doing the same thing more efficiently, which is worthwhile looking at, but it won't resolve the issues of lack of facilities/staff.

    The only thing structurally which is broken is social care which no-one has been brave enough to try and fix.
    I disagree: structure is a significant issue. It's essentially the same structure as when it was formed, over seventy years ago. There has been some evolution, but nothing like the way the structure of society - and what society demands - along with medical technology, has advanced.

    A company I knew invented a new type of medical diagnostics device. The barriers to get something like it into hospitals was massively high and, if the rumours are true, somewhat corrupt ("pay me money and we'll talk.")

    Society and technology has changed. The NHS has not kept up, sadly.

    (And I'm not saying the NHS requires more money. Just that it's possible that the NHS will suck up extra funding and not deliver improvements for patients.)
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    I also have a concern that polling station staff may not treat people who turn up to vote without ID equally.
    Have we any reports of problems with polling station staff in the past?

    Edit: when similar rules in NI were brought in, there were nearly no complaints. Which given the contentious (not to say rambunctious) nature of elections there..
    I suspect polling station staff will do their utmost to help all voters vote, within the constraints of the law.

    What I do expect is long queues, particularly in more deprived areas.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,008

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm so glad privatisation has seen the end of strikes in the postal service

    The strikes are going to be the end of the postal service. No longer being publicly owned, Royal Mail has no right to exist. It needs to earn it.
    The real problem is that electronic communications have eclipsed the postal service.
    Yes, and this is ongoing. More and more of our suppliers in our house now send their bills by internet, are paid by direct debit and have opted out of paper copies. The Royal Mail has a unique distribution system with unmatched knowledge of its customer base in its staff. They need to find a use for that before it is too late.
    The parcel side of things is roaring ahead. The internet age and all that.

    The online purchasing of postage is good, I would make some improvements, but overall is very useful.

    The collection service - where they collect parcels from you at the doorstep - is surprisingly little known. But is, again excellent.

    Letters will die - to a small remaint on the side of a large parcel operation.
    I get quite annoyed when I get a letter from my bank or the like - even though it's, supposedly, an online-only bank. I'm assume there's a regulation somewhere that says they need to provide printed copies of certain things once in a while. Last one I got was about 30 pages of A4 neatly folded into a big envelope in order to detail every months charges for something had been £0.00 going back about 8 years.

    Handy to have that on file...
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736

    kjh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Two things about the voter ID requirements coming in this year:
    1 - they advantage older voters over younger voters; this is deliberate
    2 - there will be a great deal of confusion this May with people who aren't aware they need ID, and end up not being able to vote.

    (1) is pretty obviously going to benefit the Tories; that's why they're doing it after all. The impact of (2) will reduce over time - once it happens this May people will realise and get prepared.

    So this May might have a built in bias to the Cons, that will then become less pronounced over time. Added to the impact of mortgage rises, cost of living increases, and all the other issues discussed in detail on here over the past few months, might there be some advantage to the Cons to go this May, or as early as possible, to take advantage.

    This isn't a prediction - more an idle speculation, based on the idea of Tory cynicism.

    The thing is, it disproportionately disadvantages the lower socio-economic parts of society and minority groups as they are less likely to have a valid form of ID.

    This is a long term issue for Labour but once it's in it would be very hard to remove completely. They'd have to change the rules to allow more forms of valid ID. For example you will be able to use a 60+ Oyster card but not a young persons one even though they are the same things.
    Oh I agree - but I'm focusing on how the impact might influence decision making about when a GE might be, not how to modify the impact. What I'm thinking about the latter is that initially, there'll potentially be one really chaotic election where it has a big impact; and at the moment that will be the locals in May 2023. In the short term aftermath, some people will act by making sure they have ID or get a postal vote, and the opposition parties will try and promote that. So the impact will less after that first election.
    In the long term, a Labour or coalition government might not remove the ID requirement, as you say, but they would be in a position to add those other IDs - student ID, youth railcards, etc. - to lessen the impact.
    Old fogey question. What's the ID young people use to deal with the Challenge 25 policy for alcohol sales? Is the same ID valid for voter ID?
    current valid ids here

    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voter-id-that-you-can-use-in-uk-elections-and-how-to-get-it/
    I suspect my Dad is never going to vote again (96) but he doesn't have any of those ids and doesn't know he needs one. He is a Tory (member or ex-member due to age) and a leaver. I can't imagine the Tories will try and take him down to the polling station, but they will be disappointed if they do.
    You could arrange for him to have a postal vote.
    As I said I don't think he has any plans to vote again anyway. I'm also not incentivised to help as we have never voted the same and I have very different views (ie I'm not a hang em and flog em and send em back to where they came from person) I'm sure there will be others in the same boat who will have no idea they need id and will either not have it at all or can't be arsed to go home to collect it and return to the polling station. I see this going very badly indeed.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    ohnotnow said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm so glad privatisation has seen the end of strikes in the postal service

    The strikes are going to be the end of the postal service. No longer being publicly owned, Royal Mail has no right to exist. It needs to earn it.
    The real problem is that electronic communications have eclipsed the postal service.
    Yes, and this is ongoing. More and more of our suppliers in our house now send their bills by internet, are paid by direct debit and have opted out of paper copies. The Royal Mail has a unique distribution system with unmatched knowledge of its customer base in its staff. They need to find a use for that before it is too late.
    The parcel side of things is roaring ahead. The internet age and all that.

    The online purchasing of postage is good, I would make some improvements, but overall is very useful.

    The collection service - where they collect parcels from you at the doorstep - is surprisingly little known. But is, again excellent.

    Letters will die - to a small remaint on the side of a large parcel operation.
    I get quite annoyed when I get a letter from my bank or the like - even though it's, supposedly, an online-only bank. I'm assume there's a regulation somewhere that says they need to provide printed copies of certain things once in a while. Last one I got was about 30 pages of A4 neatly folded into a big envelope in order to detail every months charges for something had been £0.00 going back about 8 years.

    Handy to have that on file...
    Can't be a legal requirement - I get f*ck-all from my bank (Halifax).
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The clinical side of it is falling apart. The administrative side with its Trusts and Chief Execs paid 3 times more than the Prime Minister is in rude health.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The Tories.

    Under New Labour satisfaction was the highest ever, waiting lists were at their lowest ever, the 4 week target was hit over 95% of the time. Cancer was guaranteed. People didn't die on hospital beds.

    Labour fixed the NHS. The Tories have broken it.
    Labour didn't fix it. They just papered over the cracks and deferred the bill to future taxpayers. Under both Labour and the Tories we have had a third rate service that ranks worse than almost every other first world country for actually doing its fundamental job of keeping people alive and making them better. The NHS is a failed institution and has been for decades.
    I am not sure I agree, and happy New Year Richard. I suspect one of the key issues with the NHS is it is a victim of its own success. It is keeping people alive for longer. And the longer an NHS client lives the more expensive they become. Someone has to sit down with a pencil and paper and work out the cost against the benefits of extending life with diminishing quality of life. Basically we are talking rationing and the moral dilemmas that brings.

    Alternatively a nominal charging model which again links into rationing. Otherwise, and this is where, I suspect, the current iteration of the Conservative Party would like to go, sell the whole shebang to Cedars Sinai Healthcare and let them sort it out.
    QUALYs and similar were created in this country for exactly such purposes. My father, a philosopher, fought long and hard to get the medical establishment to understand that there was a long history of discussing moral problems of this form.

    When I was small I recall an earnest debate at the dinner table between my father and an eminent consultant. It was long ago, and I forget the exact argument, but the consultant posed a dilemma that he thought was a gotcha. It so happened to be nearly exactly an example from a book on moral philosophy my father had got me to read.

    So I repeated the example… which caused a bit of moment. I don’t think the consultant was used to being torpedoed in argument by children.
    ... which is why children should be seen and not heard ;-)
    Indeed. It was so clear and obvious it just popped out. I still remember the awful silence that followed my contribution.

    Back to the original point - NHS doctors do not simply strive to keep alive at all costs. They are trained and given guidelines on considering the quality and length of life that results from treatment. Especially in light of how many treatments have downsides as well as up.

    Were this can go wrong is that some become doctrinaire about not treating. Some years ago, a friends father had terminal cancer. He elected to private receive an incredibly expensive treatment that had (probably) slightly less side effects. His point was that he had a huge pile of money and wanted to improve the quality to the time he had left.

    His NHS doctors tried to stop him dong so, going to a judge etc, because they had judged the treatment not worth it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The clinical side of it is falling apart. The administrative side with its Trusts and Chief Execs paid 3 times more than the Prime Minister is in rude health.
    Given the amount of administrative stuff that lands on the front end staff, I wouldn’t say that the admin side is in “rude health”

    I would say fucked up is more like it.
  • Options

    What the hell has happened to the NHS? Why is it on its knees?

    Someone I know, for reasons I won’t go into, seriously tried to commit suicide yesterday. They took a load of paracetamol and took themselves off somewhere secluded to die. The police helicopter had to find them using the thermal imaging camera.

    When they got to hospital they were waiting an hour - an hour - to be triaged, whilst vomiting up blood.

    If someone in this position has to wait an hour to be traiged, to have to wait to be given the drugs they need to counteract the paracetamol while vomiting blood, the system is well and truly broken.

    Who is going to take responsibility for this and fix it? The NHS is falling apart. It was fine in 2010.

    The Tories.

    Under New Labour satisfaction was the highest ever, waiting lists were at their lowest ever, the 4 week target was hit over 95% of the time. Cancer was guaranteed. People didn't die on hospital beds.

    Labour fixed the NHS. The Tories have broken it.
    Labour didn't fix it. They just papered over the cracks and deferred the bill to future taxpayers. Under both Labour and the Tories we have had a third rate service that ranks worse than almost every other first world country for actually doing its fundamental job of keeping people alive and making them better. The NHS is a failed institution and has been for decades.
    I am not sure I agree, and happy New Year Richard. I suspect one of the key issues with the NHS is it is a victim of its own success. It is keeping people alive for longer. And the longer an NHS client lives the more expensive they become. Someone has to sit down with a pencil and paper and work out the cost against the benefits of extending life with diminishing quality of life. Basically we are talking rationing and the moral dilemmas that brings.

    Alternatively a nominal charging model which again links into rationing. Otherwise, and this is where, I suspect, the current iteration of the Conservative Party would like to go, sell the whole shebang to Cedars Sinai Healthcare and let them sort it out.
    Happy New year sir. Hope it is a fab one for you.

    I am not sure I agree with the 'victim of its own success' idea. All first world countries have seen similar improvements in both life expectancy and quality of life and, yes, it would be churlish not to recognise that the NHS has been vital for this in Britain, but only in its position as a state organised, free at the point of use, health system similar to those in existence in most other first world countries. No one is arguing seriously that we should move away from free at the point of use nor that there should not be state oversight of the system. The trouble is that the NHS has done this less well than almost any other first world country. Our model is poorer at delivering clinical results than most other European countries, than Canada, Australia or Japan. Ours is ultimately a failed system that needs radical overhaul but no one is willing to do that because they are all terrified of the very accusation you make - the one that is always used - of selling it off to private control.

    The US is not the only alternative. Indeed the US is not an alternative. Look to Germany, France, Italy or any number of other countries and copy the best of their systems. None of them would ever think about copying ours.
This discussion has been closed.