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Betting now on Trump for the WH2024 GOP nomination seems crazy – politicalbetting.com
Betting now on Trump for the WH2024 GOP nomination seems crazy – politicalbetting.com
One of the moderately busy political betting markets at the moment is on who will win the Republican nomination for the 2024 White House Race. Currently ex-President Donald Trump tops of polls and also the betting where he’s rated as a 30% chance.
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Hope you've all had a lovely day
People underrated him before 2016, and I imagine they don't want to make the same mistake again.
He also might well have won in 2020 had a microbe in China not mutated and found a human host.
It is like when Putin berates the West for escalating the war which he started and has escalated dozens of times, or when lawyers call other people parasites.
Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.
Sunak, take note.
Venona and other recent information has shown, while the content of Julius' atomic espionage was not as vital to the Soviets as alleged at the time of his espionage activities, in other fields it was extensive. The information Rosenberg passed to the Soviets concerned the proximity fuze, design and production information on the Lockheed P-80 jet fighter, and thousands of classified reports from Emerson Radio."
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venona_project
I thought everyone knew that. Well, almost everyone.
(Incidentally, the proximity fuze was so secret that it was not used over land, until the Battle of the Bulge.)
And that's true even though the Republican rules, giving all the delegates to a plurality winners in many (all?) states give Trump a big advantage.
And this means there's a mishmash of winner takes all (Ohio, Florida, Arizona), winner takes most (Wisconsin, Illinois), and various other not quite proportional systems in place.
My body is still struggling to process the massive Christmas lunch I ate at 2pm yesterday afternoon.
I ask, because I seen to remember that the Scottish legislature passed an Act of Union back in 1707.
The Treaty of Union of 1706 was an international agreement between two sovereign states, the articles of which have been trashed so thoroughly as to make the document invalid. The final blow was dealt by the Labour Party who actually enshrined English hegemony in law in 1998.
That qualifies as unwarrantable jurisdiction.
It is amusing though to watch Americans twist and turn over eviscerating Lee and lionising George Washington, because Lee may have freed his slaves, and been a much better general, and won most of his battles, but he was a traitor, unlike Washington apparently…
Without the Union Scotland would have remained an impoverished irrelevance throughout the 18th and 19th Centuries, as Darien demonstrated, whereas with it Scotland and Scots helped build the world and made huge contributions in the fields of economics, engineering and science.
Scotland's culture, traditions and heritage were strengthened, stabilised and then hugely amplified to a global audience as a result of the Union, an effect which it continues to benefit from today, and resentment at the fact that could only be achieved in partnership with England (which is what this is really about) should not blind you to it, nor the consequences of ending that partnership.
Latest sunrise of the year falls next weekend, I believe.
Where do I go from here? Anyone got anything good on the Chinese?
My. Doethur, I voted to Leave as I think, sadly, the EU will break up and the later it occurs the greater the pain that will be caused. Not sure I see the inconsistency there.
“Guest edited” by Ian Botham. They’ve gone rather over the top on the cricket stuff.
Thought for the day was just embarrassing, inserting a completely inappropriate reference to Botham’s charity work.
What kind of editor does that?
He comes across as a complete prick, yet gets treated with an absurd reverence throughout the program.
The vast majority of R4 listeners are either ambivalent towards, or actively hate the game. The BBC have got this wrong.
Incidentally, so sure were some leavers that Brexit would lead to others leaving that Betfair ran a “next country to invoke article 50” market, and my long timeframe bets on “none before 2023” are days away from paying off. I did flag this betting opportunity way back at the time; I got on at 1.55 in 2019.
Your strawman attack demeans you.
If the EU collapses it'll be disastrous as the good scenario in that event would be widespread civil disturbance. Not to mention the chance of a trade or actual war and the breakdown of multi-lateral co-operation.
I never thought the EU would fall over if we left, quite the reverse. My concern is that when something ends the consequences grow more dire the deeper the integration. If you and I have an argument now, a bitter and serious one, perhaps we don't ever respond to one another on PB any more. That is not a serious consequence. If you and I fall in love, get married, live together, have children, get a dog *and then* have a terminal breakdown in our relationship the negative consequences are infinitely more profound.
It's why I have more respect for Verhofstadt than might be assumed given we're on opposite sides of the aisle when it comes to the EU. He at least recognises that there's a danger in power without democracy and the only possibly way the EU can progress (short of a looser association which sadly seems impossible) is to integrate more but in a political manner so the citizens of the EU can actually have some electoral power to match the political responsibility the bloc has drawn to itself that had hitherto been the preserve of the nation-states that comprise the organisation.
The problem is that national identities are not so easily wiped out (look at Scotland, Yorkshire, Cornwall). When political integration has been completed but some are constantly in a minority or feel they're being ridden over roughshod, the penalties for leaving become ever higher. But if there's no alternative, that will happen. The one-size-fits-all model will, I fear lead to a catastrophic breakdown.
First-time visitors to the US are often struck by the strength of state loyalties - particularly as Americans seem to move around so much - but there they are, and back in history there was a time when they were stronger than US identity.
While one can argue the historical pros and cons, if we're saying we can judge nations by what they did in the eighteenth century, we look pretty piss poor, too.
I have a line of reasoning that is plausible (though whether true or not time will tell). Evidence for the future is a little difficult to present due to the direction in which time flows.
The man was wedded to the system of slavery.
And it's a simple statement of fact to say he was a much better battlefield general.
Just as you don't need to lionise Nazi Germany to think Rommel was actually a better general than most Allied commanders including Montgomery.
For a start, while England and Scotland were different countries, they had one monarch. In an age when monarchical rule was still generally accepted, and the powers of Parliament still limited to some degree, a Union of the Crowns already meant England and Scotland were 'integrated' to some degree. The EU, on the other hand, was an artificial creation in that it brought together sovereign independent states with their own laws etc into a Treaty, which was then developed further.
If you want a better comparison of Scotland leaving the U.K., it's not the U.K. leaving the EU but Ireland's split in 1921/2. It's a far better comparison (and a far better analogy when it comes to looking at the pluses and minuses).
The Confederacy was founded and dedicated to the preservation of slavery, the openly declared cause if the South.
All the talk of honour and states rights was a load of bunk.
And that is judging him by the standards of his time, too.
He was by repute a decent man, as were many German soldiers, but not all. Was he better than Monty? Monty was fighting a different war - one with unlimited material, but limited men, and so his battles were fought differently. Arguably Monty only lost one battle, Arnhem, whereas Rommel lost most of his.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1607164538268303360
And although Wavell was blamed for the reverses, Wavell was actually a very capable General who could probably have captured Libya and Algeria in 1941 if some prat, think he was called Churchill, hadn't sent most of his forces to fight a hopeless battle in Crete. There was nothing inevitable about Rommel's victories.
Montgomery, admittedly, also had such shortages, but they were less acute. He was a rather reckless General who often gambled on inadequate intelligence and was profligate with the lives of his men in poorly thought through and often ineffectual campaigns. Arnhem was the largest and most spectacular of them but you could see it in much of the Alamein campaign too, disguised in overall success - his bungled handling of 9th Armoured Brigade springs to mind, although the disaster was rather missed in the overwhelming relief that the British had finally won a battle.
The difference between Washington and Lee is clear.
Washington succeeded, while Lee failed.
The excessive respect in which his memory is held has, in balance, served the US quite well.
As far as his military capabilities are concerned, he won. That's about it.
The immediate resolution to the Civil War was probably as good as it could have been in the circumstances. It's what came later that was the disaster.
Personally, I don't think so.
DuraAce's analysis is correct.
As is, of course, Mike's header.
There's an anxiety that adding wider (Europe) or narrower (Scotland, Yorkshire) identities will weaken the existing British one.
It's a shame. Partly because multiple flags make the world more colourful, but also because I suspect it means the country is less well-run than it could be.
Lee lost lands and the right to vote
Which is not quite the same thing.
As with traitors, ultimately successful generals, even bad ones, tend to get a free pass on the rubbish. Frederick the Great of Prussia, for example.
An interesting exception is Douglas Haig.
Yet American unity is at threat like never before, but not (primarily) from geography or race but from culture and socio-economics.
You can only really hold victors justice if your enemies are utterly routed with little sympathy for them in the wider populace. Otherwise, you just create martyrs.
The UK was an even bigger percentage of the EU population and economy than Scotland and Northern Ireland combined are of the UK population and economy
(*) And I do think it is a 'when' now, not an 'if'
https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-windows-on-some-Russian-submarine-sails-used-for
Xmas Eve Dad (80) admitted to A&E with a chest infection By 10pm situation deteriorated , heart failure, we have hours. End of life discussion. Machines turned off.
Xmas Day. After 2am Dad seems to strengthen and by lunchtime on Christmas Day medics see Dad and reverse decision to withdraw treatment. Not in end of life mode. He smiles.
He is still in a serious position with pneumonia, and as dementia patients our family has some serious questions to deal with, but goodness that was a roller coaster.
I don't know if this Ukraine thing is going to get renewed for a third season. Almost all of the blue and yellow profile frames have disappeared from FB which is an ominous sign.
Best wishes to all the family.
I think there's an element of being an imposing blank slate, on which it was possible to project the desired virtues.
1. Was ginger.
2. Tormented by bad teeth.
3. Intended to join the Royal Navy as a teenage midshipman and was sat on his sea chest ready to go when he was talked out of it at the last moment by his mother.
Perhaps if you used the quote system provided you would have your own words to guide you.
‘I think, sadly, the EU will break up and the later it occurs the greater the pain that will be caused’
Such as: one is currently in the midst of a bitter defensive war having been subject to an act of unwarranted aggression by a far larger neighbour.
30 min later he is sitting up in the ambulance talking to us!!!! We heard more words from him in 5 seconds than we had heard in the previous 4 hours (ie none)
He is now in hospital with an infection and COVID. How he got COVID goodness know.
My sister decided not to come around for Christmas. We had a very late dinner and have the most enormous quantity of food
It is invasion of a foreign nation which is a neighbour, not the internal breakup of a union
I think Dura Ace is right that Pence has no viable route to nomination. We know he had fans amonst the evangelicals, but at the moment he's just vaguely anti-Trump, but in a wishy washy way despite what Trump would have been happy to see happen to him, which hardly shows strength.
On Ukraine/UK and the EU, I remain baffled why people cannot figure out that people might rationally support different paths for countries in different situations. I'd be in favour of both being in, now, but there's nothing illogical in seeing it as good for one and not the other.
On progress of the war, commentators do seem to be being cagey during the winter, presumably seeing what the Russians are able to come up with next after a burst of optimism following the recapture of Kherson. We can but hope forward momentum for Ukraine can continue to be maintained - quite aside from any moral considerations, it will be considerably cheaper for all concerned if they can press on and retake as much as possible.
Talk of the revolutionary war is a good coincidence, I was gifted the Cornwell book Redcoat yesterday.
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:S73184/2022-12-24/detailed#allox_id=0
Surely only a matter of time before rumours surface that Meghan has converted to Islam.
It's just maths people, you can't argue with that.
Though in any case Christians and Muslims both worship the God of Abraham and even Muslims see Jesus as a Prophet, they just don't believe in the Trinity. They have more in common with each other than atheists on that basis
I hope he pulls through and makes a complete recovery.
Thoughts very much with you.