politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly independence looks within Salmond ‘s grasp in new ICM poll
There’s a new IndyRef poll in Scotland on Sunday from ICM – the pollster that got the 2011 AV referendum most right predicting the final result to within a small fraction of a percent.
Sobering poll for us unionists - should encourage pollsters to take the temperature more often. Up to now they've rarely bothered as the media haven't wanted to pay for another "No well ahead" survey.
Interesting feature of YouGov is that there's a big jump in net confidence in the economy (+8 net) and a smaller one for Cameron (+3), but neither has had a visible effect on voting intention. What I think is happening is that Tory voters are becoming more positively satisfied (rather than just feeling they're crap but at least they're not Labour), but the coalition of 2010 Lab and 2010 ex-LDs remains unmoved.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
O/T (but too good to miss) - a report from think-tank Theos looking at correlations between religious adherence and voting intention reports that "Buddhists tended to vote Lib Dem in 2010" - is OGH a Buddhist? I think we should be told...
There was some suggestion some ago, IIRC, that as the referendum got closer voter would think a change would be attractive.
Do the figures suggest that people are changing their minds, or that former Don't Knows have moved into tyne Yes camp? If so, that could be worrying for "Better Together"!
Could Cameron lose the IndyRef, and come 3rd in the Euros and see LAB win a majority at GE2015?
The latest polling points to all that being possible.
A triple Whammy
This is silly. If YES wins the referendum, then the Value bet is suddenly on a Tory majority in 2015. The Scots Labour vote will collapse, after a Yes, and Cameron could easily win in London as leader of the 'English' party.
What are the quoted odds against a Tory overall majority at the moment? If Yes wins those odds could be wildly generous.
Interesting feature of YouGov is that there's a big jump in net confidence in the economy (+8 net) and a smaller one for Cameron (+3), but neither has had a visible effect on voting intention. What I think is happening is that Tory voters are becoming more positively satisfied (rather than just feeling they're crap but at least they're not Labour), but the coalition of 2010 Lab and 2010 ex-LDs remains unmoved.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
I wonder if the improving economy, and likewise consumer confidence, is linked to the rise in YES. In a cold and frightening recession, separation seems like a big gamble. As confidence rises, Scots may feel more inclined to make the risky leap.
Scottish Secession would be devastating for your party, naturally, so I presume you are praying this is an outlier.
Good poll for the separatists, but John Curtice does offer a word of caution:
This is the highest Yes tally in any independently commissioned poll so far. It represents a six-point swing to Yes since last September, the biggest yet in a campaign in which the polls have been remarkably stable. True, there is one word of caution. The swing is entirely confined to those aged 44 and under. All pollsters, including ICM, find it more difficult to get younger voters to answer their questions. Consequently, their estimates of how such voters will behave are more likely to change randomly from one poll to the next.
Interesting feature of YouGov is that there's a big jump in net confidence in the economy (+8 net) and a smaller one for Cameron (+3), but neither has had a visible effect on voting intention. What I think is happening is that Tory voters are becoming more positively satisfied (rather than just feeling they're crap but at least they're not Labour), but the coalition of 2010 Lab and 2010 ex-LDs remains unmoved.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
You need to follow my engineering materials analogy for poll movements: there is a limited amount of elasticity as load (news) is applied, and then the movements become plastic when enough load is exerted. If not enough load is exerted, the movements mostly springs back.
It's not as simple as one bit of news 'causing' a shift: we're human, and we see patterns everywhere and love cause and effect (even when we get it wrong). It's easy to say 'this bit of news caused this movement', and you hear people shout this even when the polling occurred before the news. Or to look at a piece of news and say 'this hasn't caused a movement'.
If my theory is right, what is needed is a series of positive news stories bang-bang-bang-bang at the right intervals - the public find it hard to ignore one story, but a series of consecutive stories creates a mood and can alter behaviour. Then when the 'snap' from elastic to plastic does occur, we psephologists tend to blame the last bang only, not the cumulative effect.
If the delay between the news is too long, the plastic hinge never develops.
Naturally, the other sides also try to get this sort of effect, so you have competing materials, perhaps in a bi-metal. But that's stretching the analogy too far ...
As I said before, we need a Young's Modulues for polling. ;-)
One of the most telling things to now watch out for will be whether scottish labour enter the same spiral of negativity they did in 2011.
When they were well ahead in the polls for the 2011 scottish elections they were quite content to follow the strategy mapped out for them by westminster to go hard on negative campaigning. When the polls began to close their response was to stick firmly to the negative strategy. Even when the polls went from bad to worse and the SNP started to widen their lead little Ed and his strategists thought the fault had surely to lie in still just not being negative enough. This culminated in the very people who dreamed up the scottish labour strategy in the first place making one last effort to double down and put everything into negative campaigning.
Balls and Miliband to rescue Labour’s Scottish campaign…
Can Ed Miliband and Ed Balls save Labour in Scotland? The two Labour heavyweights have decided to move in to rescue their party’s disastrous campaign in Scotland — with Balls being sent up north to sharpen his party’s teeth. A desperate measure for a desperate situation: Labour has not only blown a 10-15 point lead over the SNP in just a few weeks, but now languishes some 10-13 percentage points behind. A mammoth, humiliating defeat looms.
Until now, Labour has liked to portray its campaign for the Holyrood elections as a totally Scottish affair: run in Scotland, organised in Scotland and led by Scottish politicians. Not any more.
Senior staffers in Ed Miliband’s office started briefing Scottish hacks last night that Miliband is now going to take a much more "hands on" approach to the campaign. Miliband has only made one, brief appearance in the campaign so far. But he and Ed Balls are due to be in Scotland this week to push a more strident "anti-independence" message.
The 2011 SNP landslide result we know. What is also known is that some of the very same 'masterminds' who charted that strategy out for scottish labour's 2011 campaign are right back in place coordinating the SLAB attacks and strategy for the referendum. Even Iain Gray has been brought back in, because, after all, the polls are all pointing to a No win so the strategy must be working. And even if it starts looking like it's not, they can always double down on the negativity again.
Meanwhile the Mail does some heroic digging in the internals to demonstrate why what appears to be a popular move - the 50p tax rate - is a bad idea for Labour......
O/T (but too good to miss) - a report from think-tank Theos looking at correlations between religious adherence and voting intention reports that "Buddhists tended to vote Lib Dem in 2010" - is OGH a Buddhist? I think we should be told...
Frankly the bald truth it that some have commented that OGH and Buddha have more than a passing resemblance in certain physical respects.
Interesting feature of YouGov is that there's a big jump in net confidence in the economy (+8 net) and a smaller one for Cameron (+3), but neither has had a visible effect on voting intention. What I think is happening is that Tory voters are becoming more positively satisfied (rather than just feeling they're crap but at least they're not Labour), but the coalition of 2010 Lab and 2010 ex-LDs remains unmoved.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
You need to follow my engineering materials analogy for poll movements: there is a limited amount of elasticity as load (news) is applied, and then the movements become plastic when enough load is exerted. If not enough load is exerted, the movements mostly springs back.
It's not as simple as one bit of news 'causing' a shift: we're human, and we see patterns everywhere and love cause and effect (even when we get it wrong). It's easy to say 'this bit of news caused this movement', and you hear people shout this even when the polling occurred before the news. Or to look at a piece of news and say 'this hasn't caused a movement'.
If my theory is right, what is needed is a series of positive news stories bang-bang-bang-bang at the right intervals - the public find it hard to ignore one story, but a series of consecutive stories creates a mood and can alter behaviour. Then when the 'snap' from elastic to plastic does occur, we psephologists tend to blame the last bang only, not the cumulative effect.
If the delay between the news is too long, the plastic hinge never develops.
Naturally, the other sides also try to get this sort of effect, so you have competing materials, perhaps in a bi-metal. But that's stretching the analogy too far ...
As I said before, we need a Young's Modulues for polling. ;-)
More likely, news stories do not cause shifts at all but the underlying story -- in this case, the recovery -- might, provided it trickles down to enough voters. A recovery that improves the lot only of those already voting Conservative will not do, so one question is: what quality are all the new jobs that have been filled?
There is one seasonal factor that might help Conservatives as it unwinds: Christmas. Many firms pay wages early in December, so a there is a six or seven week wait for January's payday.
On-topic: is it the recovery helping Yes, or a post-storm boost for the SNP government? If the latter, it may evaporate.
Interesting feature of YouGov is that there's a big jump in net confidence in the economy (+8 net) and a smaller one for Cameron (+3), but neither has had a visible effect on voting intention. What I think is happening is that Tory voters are becoming more positively satisfied (rather than just feeling they're crap but at least they're not Labour), but the coalition of 2010 Lab and 2010 ex-LDs remains unmoved.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
I wonder if the improving economy, and likewise consumer confidence, is linked to the rise in YES. In a cold and frightening recession, separation seems like a big gamble. As confidence rises, Scots may feel more inclined to make the risky leap
Its the opposite. Without any perceivable recovery and the continued collapse in living standards thanks to rising costs and shrinking spending power of wages, independence is less of a threat. The big concern about an independent Scotland is how it finances everything from infrastructure to pensions. If the UK had a viable economy able to do these things then separation becomes a big leap into the unknown.
But as the UK struggles with those things as well and life is already risky and difficult, the risk is less. One of my earlier posts on this was that despite the polls the yes camp had the momentum. Personally I don't want Scotland to leave, but I can see why it is such a temptation for them - no more Tory government, no more London dictat.
Good overview with what happens next in the Independence polling as well.
We can now expect the long-awaited changed narrative to begin to unfold as a direct result of this poll - on one crucial condition. If there is a second poll in the coming days (in theory a TNS-BMRB poll should be due before the month is out), and if that poll contradicts ICM, the media will be all too keen to believe the figures that give them the easiest life. But if the next poll doesn't tell them what they want to hear, all hell will break loose. There's one thing even the most die-hard of unionist scribes will know in his/her heart of hearts - if Yes really have closed the gap from 17% to 7% since the last ICM poll four months ago, they are perfectly capable of closing the gap from 7% to zero over the next eight months. That's especially true given that the official campaign period (with the regulations to ensure balanced broadcast coverage) has not even started yet. The "Yes has already lost" fairy-story so beloved of Ian 'Complacency' Smart and his ilk is now utterly dead in the water.
I hope Wawrinka can win, but would be significantly surprised. If Nadal wins with such a massive blister it would rather cement his position as the best player in the world.
Meanwhile the Mail does some heroic digging in the internals to demonstrate why what appears to be a popular move - the 50p tax rate - is a bad idea for Labour......
From your Mail link: Survation pollster Damian Lyons-Lowe said: ‘The 50p income tax proposal is clearly popular in itself – even a fair number of Conservative voters approve of it. But the problem for Mr Balls is he lacks credibility.’
Interesting feature of YouGov is that there's a big jump in net confidence in the economy (+8 net) and a smaller one for Cameron (+3), but neither has had a visible effect on voting intention. What I think is happening is that Tory voters are becoming more positively satisfied (rather than just feeling they're crap but at least they're not Labour), but the coalition of 2010 Lab and 2010 ex-LDs remains unmoved.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
You need to follow my engineering materials analogy for poll movements: there is a limited amount of elasticity as load (news) is applied, and then the movements become plastic when enough load is exerted. If not enough load is exerted, the movements mostly springs back.
It's not as simple as one bit of news 'causing' a shift: we're human, and we see patterns everywhere and love cause and effect (even when we get it wrong). It's easy to say 'this bit of news caused this movement', and you hear people shout this even when the polling occurred before the news. Or to look at a piece of news and say 'this hasn't caused a movement'.
If my theory is right, what is needed is a series of positive news stories bang-bang-bang-bang at the right intervals - the public find it hard to ignore one story, but a series of consecutive stories creates a mood and can alter behaviour. Then when the 'snap' from elastic to plastic does occur, we psephologists tend to blame the last bang only, not the cumulative effect.
If the delay between the news is too long, the plastic hinge never develops.
Naturally, the other sides also try to get this sort of effect, so you have competing materials, perhaps in a bi-metal. But that's stretching the analogy too far ...
As I said before, we need a Young's Modulues for polling. ;-)
On-topic: is it the recovery helping Yes, or a post-storm boost for the SNP government? If the latter, it may evaporate.
Curtice effectively offers two hypotheses: the White Paper with its promise of free child care has shifted some female voters, or, it's a sampling effect among the under 44s.....
You need to follow my engineering materials analogy for poll movements: there is a limited amount of elasticity as load (news) is applied, and then the movements become plastic when enough load is exerted. If not enough load is exerted, the movements mostly springs back.
It's not as simple as one bit of news 'causing' a shift: we're human, and we see patterns everywhere and love cause and effect (even when we get it wrong). It's easy to say 'this bit of news caused this movement', and you hear people shout this even when the polling occurred before the news. Or to look at a piece of news and say 'this hasn't caused a movement'.
If my theory is right, what is needed is a series of positive news stories bang-bang-bang-bang at the right intervals - the public find it hard to ignore one story, but a series of consecutive stories creates a mood and can alter behaviour. Then when the 'snap' from elastic to plastic does occur, we psephologists tend to blame the last bang only, not the cumulative effect.
If the delay between the news is too long, the plastic hinge never develops.
Naturally, the other sides also try to get this sort of effect, so you have competing materials, perhaps in a bi-metal. But that's stretching the analogy too far ...
As I said before, we need a Young's Modulues for polling. ;-)
More likely, news stories do not cause shifts at all but the underlying story -- in this case, the recovery -- might, provided it trickles down to enough voters. A recovery that improves the lot only of those already voting Conservative will not do, so one question is: what quality are all the new jobs that have been filled?
There is one seasonal factor that might help Conservatives as it unwinds: Christmas. Many firms pay wages early in December, so a there is a six or seven week wait for January's payday.
On-topic: is it the recovery helping Yes, or a post-storm boost for the SNP government? If the latter, it may evaporate.
That's sort of in line with what I wrote above: we all desperately watch out for a poll movement after a particular news story, when the story probably has caused only a little deflection that is buried in the noise, and soon unwinds.
It is the underlying story that is important: the trend and regularity of positive stories. It is easy for a voter to ignore positive stories that don't particularly apply to them: there needs to be lots of positive stories, all applying to different sectors of society, until everyone has several good news story.
Interesting feature of YouGov is that there's a big jump in net confidence in the economy (+8 net) and a smaller one for Cameron (+3), but neither has had a visible effect on voting intention. What I think is happening is that Tory voters are becoming more positively satisfied (rather than just feeling they're crap but at least they're not Labour), but the coalition of 2010 Lab and 2010 ex-LDs remains unmoved.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
I wonder if the improving economy, and likewise consumer confidence, is linked to the rise in YES. In a cold and frightening recession, separation seems like a big gamble. As confidence rises, Scots may feel more inclined to make the risky leap
Interesting feature of YouGov is that there's a big jump in net confidence in the economy (+8 net) and a smaller one for Cameron (+3), but neither has had a visible effect on voting intention. What I think is happening is that Tory voters are becoming more positively satisfied (rather than just feeling they're crap but at least they're not Labour), but the coalition of 2010 Lab and 2010 ex-LDs remains unmoved.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
I wonder if the improving economy, and likewise consumer confidence, is linked to the rise in YES. In a cold and frightening recession, separation seems like a big gamble. As confidence rises, Scots may feel more inclined to make the risky leap
no more Tory government, no more London dictat.
Except in England......
A Yes vote in Scotland will have all sorts of consequences for English politics. I suspect the Tories might split.
Curtice effectively offers two hypotheses: the White Paper with its promise of free child care has shifted some female voters, or, it's a sampling effect among the under 44s.....
I wouldn't put that much stock in Curtice since he was one of the chief proponents of 'there has been no change' in Independence polling for all this time. Nor did he cover himself in glory with his predictions for 2011. He's one psephologist of many while ICM are supposedly the "Gold Standard".
Never mind, I'm sure your scottish labour chums will be there to aid SCON and provide you with yet more negative spin for this fairly remarkable independence polling.
Maybe if you ask little Ed and Balls nicely enough they'll come up to scotland to help out the scottish tories and 'better together'?
Interesting feature of YouGov is that there's a big jump in net confidence in the economy (+8 net) and a smaller one for Cameron (+3), but neither has had a visible effect on voting intention. What I think is happening is that Tory voters are becoming more positively satisfied (rather than just feeling they're crap but at least they're not Labour), but the coalition of 2010 Lab and 2010 ex-LDs remains unmoved.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
I wonder if the improving economy, and likewise consumer confidence, is linked to the rise in YES. In a cold and frightening recession, separation seems like a big gamble. As confidence rises, Scots may feel more inclined to make the risky leap
no more Tory government, no more London dictat.
Except in England......
A Yes vote in Scotland will have all sorts of consequences for English politics. I suspect the Tories might split.
Nah, they're going to split over Europe anyway regardless of the Independence referendum.
@afneil: HMRC revenues from top taxpayers: 2011/12: £41.3bn (50% rate); 12/13: £41.6bn (50%); 13/14: £49.36bn (45% top rate).
Which neatly demonstrates the impact of tax loopholes Labour can close. Clearly top rate payers are avoiding tax (and the mass postponement of city bonuses into 13/14 was well publicised) so let's simplify the tax code to close off the holes they are escaping through.
Again, this will be clever politics. The right hate tax dodgers if they are poor, but celebrate it when they are rich. A one rule for all approach is difficult to argue against and appear to not just be supporting your city benefactors
@afneil: HMRC revenues from top taxpayers: 2011/12: £41.3bn (50% rate); 12/13: £41.6bn (50%); 13/14: £49.36bn (45% top rate).
. Clearly top rate payers are avoiding tax
Which is the point, set tax rates at levels which removes the value in avoidance and overall collection rates go up. The only problem from your point of view is it doesn't punish the rich
Yes vote means no PM Miliband - every cloud etc...
You should celebrate by repeating the exact same spin for the 50p tax cut for richest that heralded the biggest drop in tory polling since before 2010. I'm sure the voters just didn't get the message strongly enough from Osbrowne's omnishambles the last time.
@politicshome: .@edballsmp: "Do I think the level of public spending going into the crisis was a problem? No, I don’t." #marr
@ToryTreasury: There we have it. UK went into the crisis with biggest structural deficit in G7 (IMF data). Ed Balls says that deficit was "not too high".
Mr. Pork, that's the choice. Governing by polling, focus groups and headlines, or governing to maximise tax receipts.
Then you must be incredibly relieved you don't have a politically obsessed, master strategising, endlessly triangulating tory chancellor in Osbrowne. Or indeed a PR obsessed second rate Blair impersonator as tory PM.
No it's very stupid politics. There was a chap on Radio 5 this morning who said that the proposed 50p rate would raise about £100 million, which he described as a drop in the ocean; that it potentially had all sorts of hard to quantify negative effects, leading him to describe the policy as risky.
The man was from the IFS, Labour's favourite economic think-tank. When your own side describes a policy as risky it's probably not a good one.
In reality recent changes to tax by this government appear to have had mostly positive effects, why would Labour chose to reverse them if they are keen to demonstrate economic competence?
Mr. Pork, none of the major parties are impressive, but some are worse than others.
It's also worth recalling that the would-be King of North Britain once could not wait to ditch the pound (I believe he said it was a millstone around Scotland's neck, or similar) and now thinks sharing a currency with the UK (having left the UK) is a divine right.
@afneil: HMRC revenues from top taxpayers: 2011/12: £41.3bn (50% rate); 12/13: £41.6bn (50%); 13/14: £49.36bn (45% top rate).
. Clearly top rate payers are avoiding tax
Which is the point, set tax rates at levels which removes the value in avoidance and overall collection rates go up. The only problem from your point of view is it doesn't punish the rich
The Left don't care about reducing the tax take as long as better off are punished for being aspiration all.
One look at RP's post just shows how economically illiterate they really are.
Good morning all and watching Ed Balls in full denial mode. Labour didn't drive up the deficit, it was the international bankers!
Meanwhile back at the ranch, I have been trying to tell you all that as a unionist I expect Eck to win his Referendum by a squeaky bum margin.
Interesting news this morning that 58% of the people of rumpUK would either be delighted or not bothered to waken up and find Scotland had left the club.
I wonder if the Parliamentary draftsmen have got that Parliament (Suspension of Scottish Constituencies) Bill 2014 ready yet. GE2015 without the 59 Scottish constituencies would be fun.
Good poll for the separatists, but John Curtice does offer a word of caution:
This is the highest Yes tally in any independently commissioned poll so far. It represents a six-point swing to Yes since last September, the biggest yet in a campaign in which the polls have been remarkably stable. True, there is one word of caution. The swing is entirely confined to those aged 44 and under. All pollsters, including ICM, find it more difficult to get younger voters to answer their questions. Consequently, their estimates of how such voters will behave are more likely to change randomly from one poll to the next.
LOL, diehard unionists down to hoping YES voters will not bother turning out. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
One of the most telling things to now watch out for will be whether scottish labour enter the same spiral of negativity they did in 2011.
When they were well ahead in the polls for the 2011 scottish elections they were quite content to follow the strategy mapped out for them by westminster to go hard on negative campaigning. When the polls began to close their response was to stick firmly to the negative strategy. Even when the polls went from bad to worse and the SNP started to widen their lead little Ed and his strategists thought the fault had surely to lie in still just not being negative enough. This culminated in the very people who dreamed up the scottish labour strategy in the first place making one last effort to double down and put everything into negative campaigning.
Balls and Miliband to rescue Labour’s Scottish campaign…
Can Ed Miliband and Ed Balls save Labour in Scotland? The two Labour heavyweights have decided to move in to rescue their party’s disastrous campaign in Scotland — with Balls being sent up north to sharpen his party’s teeth. A desperate measure for a desperate situation: Labour has not only blown a 10-15 point lead over the SNP in just a few weeks, but now languishes some 10-13 percentage points behind. A mammoth, humiliating defeat looms.
Until now, Labour has liked to portray its campaign for the Holyrood elections as a totally Scottish affair: run in Scotland, organised in Scotland and led by Scottish politicians. Not any more.
Senior staffers in Ed Miliband’s office started briefing Scottish hacks last night that Miliband is now going to take a much more "hands on" approach to the campaign. Miliband has only made one, brief appearance in the campaign so far. But he and Ed Balls are due to be in Scotland this week to push a more strident "anti-independence" message.
The 2011 SNP landslide result we know. What is also known is that some of the very same 'masterminds' who charted that strategy out for scottish labour's 2011 campaign are right back in place coordinating the SLAB attacks and strategy for the referendum. Even Iain Gray has been brought back in, because, after all, the polls are all pointing to a No win so the strategy must be working. And even if it starts looking like it's not, they can always double down on the negativity again.
The change is the move of labour to Independence, they have nowhere else to go , it is either be Tories in the UK or have a chance of changing things in an independent Scotland, many of them are not happy with that.
Mr. Pork, none of the major parties are impressive, but some are worse than others.
Yeah well, Cammie gave a Cast Iron Pledge for a Lisbon Referendum and we all know how that turned out. I expect his backbenchers will not be perturbed in the slightest in the run up to the EU elections. Not with that terribly clever wheeze of an EU Referendum Bill that will put all their minds at ease so they know they can trust Cammie yet again.
Mr. Easterross, I suspect many who are in the UK (excluding Scotland) and are either unconcerned or positively happy as a possible separation are because of Salmond's constant arrogance and baiting. The man's an utter arse.
I do hope Scotland remains, but agree it'll be closer than many think.
Mr. Pork, if you're going to criticise Cameron at least do it on something legitimate, like cutting Defence or his greenism. The Conservatives were the only party of the three who promised a referendum to actually vote for one. Attacking the Opposition for keeping a promise the Labour Government broke is irrational.
Why is anyone getting excited about today's YouJokeGuv poll? They bounce around more than the balls at the Australian Open Mens tennis final today.
If and when crossover happens it will be with ICM and then all the other pollsters will fiddle with their weighting etc to ensure they fall into line for fear of being shown to be wide of the mark.
Murnaghan this morning on SKY talking about the Scottish Referendum so might be interesting. Ironically I think a YES vote would be good for the Tory parties on both sides of the Scotland-England border. Scotland's socialist public sector junkies would get a big shock post 18th September when the international markers make it clear the only way an Independent Scotland would be taken seriously is if it adopts a centre-right free market economy, the type John Swinney and chums has quietly been building for the past 7 years while many of his chums have been talking leftie crap to win the Scottish Labour vote over.
Mr. Pork, none of the major parties are impressive, but some are worse than others.
It's also worth recalling that the would-be King of North Britain once could not wait to ditch the pound (I believe he said it was a millstone around Scotland's neck, or similar) and now thinks sharing a currency with the UK (having left the UK) is a divine right.
MD , only on a temporary basis is what he said, eventually we will move to our own currency or to the Euro.
The political ramifications of a Scotch Secession go beyond the evisceration of the British Labour Party.
Suddenly Catalan secession from Spain would seem quite acceptable, maybe even logical. And the Basque Country .... Wallonia and Flanders... Tyrol in Italy?
We can expect Madrid, Brussels, and London to fight dirty if Salmond looks like winning.
Mr. G, it baffles me as to why Scotland would wish to leave sterling and go to the euro. However, if Scotland votes for independence that's a matter for the Scots. But a proposed currency union with the UK is another matter. I fail to see why either you or we should want it.
Depending how negotiations happen, it could occur in return for fiscal constraints and as a bargaining chip on certain matters. Disentangling a 300 year old union would require more than just a couple of years (Faslane and the carriers spring to mind).
ICM may be the gold standard but we all know that it, like all pollsters, can produce outliers. The Con-Lab even poll last year being a obvious recent example.
If the ICM poll remains uncorroborated by other pollsters there will be no establishment panic on the Scottish Referendum.
If we do see a series of polls indicating the gap closing to parity, then reactions will escalate. The first real panic will come from the markets and those global corporates with a heavy exposure to Scotland. Inbound investment decisions will be deferred, exchange rates and bond yields will become volatile and capital flight from Scottish banking institutions will start.
At present the Scottish economy is recovering well with excellent recent employment figures (for the Edinburgh area in particular). A safe "no" expectation with sufficient "yes" support to ensure further devolution remains on the agenda is the only way to ensure this recovery builds.
Politics today is all about economic outcomes. If the markets aren't behind you failure is inevitable.
Mr. Pork, none of the major parties are impressive, but some are worse than others.
Yeah well, Cammie gave a Cast Iron Pledge for a Lisbon Referendum and we all know how that turned out. I expect his backbenchers will not be perturbed in the slightest in the run up to the EU elections. Not with that terribly clever wheeze of an EU Referendum Bill that will put all their minds at ease so they know they can trust Cammie yet again.
Don't tell Porkers! Cammie's pledge was based on the Labour legislation not yet being in force. By the time he entered No 10 Brown had pushed it through so there could not be a referendum on potential legislation which was no longer potential but in force.
The change is the move of labour to Independence, they have nowhere else to go , it is either be Tories in the UK or have a chance of changing things in an independent Scotland, many of them are not happy with that.
Scottish Labour voters have already proved they are willing to listen to and vote for the SNP. They simply do not view the SNP or Independence with the same obvious rabid hatred as SLAB's current high command or the always amusing PB tories. So when scottish labour voters increasingly hear Labour figures who they respect like Dennis Canavan, sing a totally different tune to Lamont, Darling and little Ed, they begin to think seriously about why that is.
Mr. Easterross, I suspect many who are in the UK (excluding Scotland) and are either unconcerned or positively happy as a possible separation are because of Salmond's constant arrogance and baiting. The man's an utter arse.
While Cammie is an incompetent fop.
Remind me which one of them won a landslide election under a voting system specifically designed to prevent that? And which one couldn't even win a majority under FPTP after the biggest financial crash in decades and so had to run begging to Clegg to save him?
Good poll for the separatists, but John Curtice does offer a word of caution:
This is the highest Yes tally in any independently commissioned poll so far. It represents a six-point swing to Yes since last September, the biggest yet in a campaign in which the polls have been remarkably stable. True, there is one word of caution. The swing is entirely confined to those aged 44 and under. All pollsters, including ICM, find it more difficult to get younger voters to answer their questions. Consequently, their estimates of how such voters will behave are more likely to change randomly from one poll to the next.
LOL, diehard unionists down to hoping YES voters will not bother turning out. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Remember how you said Alan Cumming was sure to get a vote......
Good poll for the separatists, but John Curtice does offer a word of caution:
This is the highest Yes tally in any independently commissioned poll so far. It represents a six-point swing to Yes since last September, the biggest yet in a campaign in which the polls have been remarkably stable. True, there is one word of caution. The swing is entirely confined to those aged 44 and under. All pollsters, including ICM, find it more difficult to get younger voters to answer their questions. Consequently, their estimates of how such voters will behave are more likely to change randomly from one poll to the next.
LOL, diehard unionists down to hoping YES voters will not bother turning out. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Remember how you said Alan Cumming was sure to get a vote......
The political ramifications of a Scotch Secession go beyond the evisceration of the British Labour Party.
Suddenly Catalan secession from Spain would seem quite acceptable, maybe even logical. And the Basque Country .... Wallonia and Flanders... Tyrol in Italy?
We can expect Madrid, Brussels, and London to fight dirty if Salmond looks like winning.
What has this discussion got to do with whisky Gildas? Scotch is a drink. The people are Scots. It is ignorance like yours which drives Scots towards the YES side.
I do find it amusing that SKY has a major programme on the Scottish Independence issue this morning yet on Friday made no mention of the result of the Cowdenbeath by-election, preferring instead to talk about such world issues as a badly behaved 19 year old Canadian who frankly could do with a good birching!
Mr. Pork, what's that got to do with the apparently high level of British (excluding Scotland) indifference towards possible Scottish independence?
I appreciate it's simpler to type the word 'fop' and then write another panegyric of Salmond than to actually engage with what's being said by others, but it's quite tiresome.
It's a Robert Burns effect. Proud to be Scottish. That's a fine thing, and why not revel in it ? Practicalities will settle back in I reckon. Edit: Salmond will play on that.
Mr. Easterross, minor point really, but is Scotch viewed with the same sort of annoyance/contempt as the term 'provinces' when used by cretins like Cable to refer to non-Home Counties/London England?
That bloody annoys me. I don't live in bloody Gallia Narbonensis.
AveryLP [9.56am] Politics today is all about economic outcomes. If the markets aren't behind you failure is inevitable.
If that's true, why do we bother with all the expense of politicians and elections? Couldn't a committee of technocrats do just as well - or better since the markets wouldn't have to allow for political interference?
Politics today is all about economic outcomes. If the markets aren't behind you failure is inevitable.
Ah yes, the always amusing tory spinner who predicted Lansley would be PM and the kippers will get wiped out at the EU elections favours us with his always accurate forecasts.
Tell me, why was it that all your little yellow boxes and spin during Osbrowne's omnishambles were so hilariously inept and pointless since you are now posing as some kind of economic guru? Because I remember you and most of the PB tories getting that one as wrong as it is possible to get.
Maybe you should find stuarttruth again and start pontificating on the next US elections since your spinning for Romney was also comedy gold.
Mr. Pork, what's that got to do with the apparently high level of British (excluding Scotland) indifference towards possible Scottish independence?
I appreciate it's simpler to type the word 'fop' and then write another panegyric of Salmond than to actually engage with what's being said by others, but it's quite tiresome.
What I think is not being fully picked up by the polling is the class differences on the referendum. Among professional people that I know and meet discussion of the referendum is fairly desultory. I know 2 people who are going to vote yes. It is way over 90% against.
But there are clearly other groups in society that are almost as strongly in favour. As a Unionist I hope that differential turnout will favour no but I do think it will be close.
Mr. Pork, what's that got to do with the apparently high level of British (excluding Scotland) indifference towards possible Scottish independence?
I appreciate it's simpler to type the word 'fop' and then write another panegyric of Salmond than to actually engage with what's being said by others, but it's quite tiresome.
You'd best consult JackW because there seems to be a hypocrisy malfunction in your 'arse'.
AveryLP [9.56am] Politics today is all about economic outcomes. If the markets aren't behind you failure is inevitable.
If that's true, why do we bother with all the expense of politicians and elections? Couldn't a committee of technocrats do just as well - or better since the markets wouldn't have to allow for political interference?
A good point IA.
A team of technocrats was prescribed for both Greece and Italy after their leaders/governments fell out with their bosses in Frankfurt and Brussels.
The political ramifications of a Scotch Secession go beyond the evisceration of the British Labour Party.
Suddenly Catalan secession from Spain would seem quite acceptable, maybe even logical. And the Basque Country .... Wallonia and Flanders... Tyrol in Italy?
We can expect Madrid, Brussels, and London to fight dirty if Salmond looks like winning.
What has this discussion got to do with whisky Gildas? Scotch is a drink. The people are Scots. It is ignorance like yours which drives Scots towards the YES side.
I do find it amusing that SKY has a major programme on the Scottish Independence issue this morning yet on Friday made no mention of the result of the Cowdenbeath by-election, preferring instead to talk about such world issues as a badly behaved 19 year old Canadian who frankly could do with a good birching!
Ach, stop yer greetin'. It's prickliness like this which will make Englishers like me heave a big sigh of relief when you're gone.
We don't care much either way. It will make England more Tory, and I suppose that's probably a good thing, going by the latest tax nonsense from miliband. Apart from that - *big shrug*
Mr. Pork, if you're going to criticise Cameron at least do it on something legitimate, like cutting Defence or his greenism. The Conservatives were the only party of the three who promised a referendum to actually vote for one. Attacking the Opposition for keeping a promise the Labour Government broke is irrational.
Cammie's endless posturing on the EU a sore point for you is it? I completely understand. After all he's made countless tory Eurosceptics look like gullible fools for believing his tosh many times over already. They might just be reaching the end of their rope however so you will be treated to some first class posturing before and after the EU elections to enjoy or swallow.
Mr. G, it baffles me as to why Scotland would wish to leave sterling and go to the euro. However, if Scotland votes for independence that's a matter for the Scots. But a proposed currency union with the UK is another matter. I fail to see why either you or we should want it.
Depending how negotiations happen, it could occur in return for fiscal constraints and as a bargaining chip on certain matters. Disentangling a 300 year old union would require more than just a couple of years (Faslane and the carriers spring to mind).
MD, as you say it will take many years to fully disentangle the union. A currency union will be in place at least till that is done, what happens later will depend on circumstances.
ICM may be the gold standard but we all know that it, like all pollsters, can produce outliers. The Con-Lab even poll last year being a obvious recent example.
If the ICM poll remains uncorroborated by other pollsters there will be no establishment panic on the Scottish Referendum.
If we do see a series of polls indicating the gap closing to parity, then reactions will escalate. The first real panic will come from the markets and those global corporates with a heavy exposure to Scotland. Inbound investment decisions will be deferred, exchange rates and bond yields will become volatile and capital flight from Scottish banking institutions will start.
At present the Scottish economy is recovering well with excellent recent employment figures (for the Edinburgh area in particular). A safe "no" expectation with sufficient "yes" support to ensure further devolution remains on the agenda is the only way to ensure this recovery builds.
Politics today is all about economic outcomes. If the markets aren't behind you failure is inevitable.
Avery they have been spouting that for years, inward investment is still rising, for sure it will get dirty though.
One of the things I can never get about ODI cricket is that there is a power play and the batsmen really struggle with 2 wickets for hardly any runs. The power play finishes, the field goes back and suddenly singles are available again making the batsmen looking comfortable again.
Good poll for the separatists, but John Curtice does offer a word of caution:
This is the highest Yes tally in any independently commissioned poll so far. It represents a six-point swing to Yes since last September, the biggest yet in a campaign in which the polls have been remarkably stable. True, there is one word of caution. The swing is entirely confined to those aged 44 and under. All pollsters, including ICM, find it more difficult to get younger voters to answer their questions. Consequently, their estimates of how such voters will behave are more likely to change randomly from one poll to the next.
LOL, diehard unionists down to hoping YES voters will not bother turning out. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Remember how you said Alan Cumming was sure to get a vote......
Yes that will really make an impact. If he wanted a vote then he could have had it and still can. If he moves and registers by the 3rd of September then he will be eligible. Any resident can vote , so down to whether he wants to be here for a month or not.
Mr. Easterross, minor point really, but is Scotch viewed with the same sort of annoyance/contempt as the term 'provinces' when used by cretins like Cable to refer to non-Home Counties/London England?
That bloody annoys me. I don't live in bloody Gallia Narbonensis.
MD try at least a hundred times worse, I would rather be called a Cu**
ICM may be the gold standard but we all know that it, like all pollsters, can produce outliers. The Con-Lab even poll last year being a obvious recent example.
If the ICM poll remains uncorroborated by other pollsters there will be no establishment panic on the Scottish Referendum.
If we do see a series of polls indicating the gap closing to parity, then reactions will escalate. The first real panic will come from the markets and those global corporates with a heavy exposure to Scotland. Inbound investment decisions will be deferred, exchange rates and bond yields will become volatile and capital flight from Scottish banking institutions will start.
At present the Scottish economy is recovering well with excellent recent employment figures (for the Edinburgh area in particular). A safe "no" expectation with sufficient "yes" support to ensure further devolution remains on the agenda is the only way to ensure this recovery builds.
Politics today is all about economic outcomes. If the markets aren't behind you failure is inevitable.
Avery they have been spouting that for years, inward investment is still rising, for sure it will get dirty though.
It will get dirty if expectations for the outcome of the referendum change.
Still that would make the run-up to the referendum vote much more fun.
Dear Dear , I might have guessed which numpty would post that garbage. It does not half give people up here a laugh. The daily Heil being against you means the right wing thugs are getting worried
Mr. G, must say I'm slightly surprised. Whilst I'd never use the term scotch (not for the drink either) I wouldn't've thought it'd be seen as that bad.
What I think is not being fully picked up by the polling is the class differences on the referendum. Among professional people that I know and meet discussion of the referendum is fairly desultory. I know 2 people who are going to vote yes. It is way over 90% against.
But there are clearly other groups in society that are almost as strongly in favour. As a Unionist I hope that differential turnout will favour no but I do think it will be close.
Yawn, endangered species says my chums are all for the union , these peasants are a real nuisance and will soon be asking for the vote. Dear Dear have a look in the mirror, it is dolts like you that are making sure it will be YES.
Hmmm - the first part of the Herdson Prophecy comes a little closer....
I too have said for a while that Scottish independence is a distinct possibility. But I have also said that the case for independence has been poorly thought out. And Salmond's poor effort this week in handling questions about the Ryder Cup jolly could yet be the fly in the ointment. There is not much point in asking the voters to go with your Braveheart New World if it has the appearance of a shiny new country but with the same old troughing politicians just looking out for themselves and their cronies.
But good luck to the Scots. If it does happen, then we could be looking at a horribly uncertain period of rUK government, perhaps with a Prime Minister Miliband robbed of a chunk of his MP's part way through his term, probably when Labour's inevitable economic meltdown mean that his party's polling has gone through the mid-term floor. Not a time to lose a confidence motion and have to go to the country....
Mr. Pork, what's that got to do with the apparently high level of British (excluding Scotland) indifference towards possible Scottish independence?
I appreciate it's simpler to type the word 'fop' and then write another panegyric of Salmond than to actually engage with what's being said by others, but it's quite tiresome.
Don't encourage him, MD.
He'll be posting the wiki polling chart next.
We haven't had one today.
You mean the polling average trend line which also shows every VI poll carried out from 2010.
Now why would it be that you are so upset at the prospect of polling? Could it be the same reason you and stuarttruth made us all laugh so hard when you were dismissing every poll as you were cheerleading for Romney?
In the YouGov poll today the internals (leader ratings, approval) are the best for the Tories since the conference season. But VI remains stubbornly in Labour's favour
What I think is not being fully picked up by the polling is the class differences on the referendum. Among professional people that I know and meet discussion of the referendum is fairly desultory. I know 2 people who are going to vote yes. It is way over 90% against.
But there are clearly other groups in society that are almost as strongly in favour. As a Unionist I hope that differential turnout will favour no but I do think it will be close.
Yawn, endangered species says my chums are all for the union , these peasants are a real nuisance and will soon be asking for the vote. Dear Dear have a look in the mirror, it is dolts like you that are making sure it will be YES.
And here was I thinking you were an aristocrat brought low by a drink, malcolm.
The political ramifications of a Scotch Secession go beyond the evisceration of the British Labour Party.
Suddenly Catalan secession from Spain would seem quite acceptable, maybe even logical. And the Basque Country .... Wallonia and Flanders... Tyrol in Italy?
We can expect Madrid, Brussels, and London to fight dirty if Salmond looks like winning.
What has this discussion got to do with whisky Gildas? Scotch is a drink. The people are Scots. It is ignorance like yours which drives Scots towards the YES side.
I do find it amusing that SKY has a major programme on the Scottish Independence issue this morning yet on Friday made no mention of the result of the Cowdenbeath by-election, preferring instead to talk about such world issues as a badly behaved 19 year old Canadian who frankly could do with a good birching!
Ach, stop yer greetin'. It's prickliness like this which will make Englishers like me heave a big sigh of relief when you're gone.
We don't care much either way. It will make England more Tory, and I suppose that's probably a good thing, going by the latest tax nonsense from miliband. Apart from that - *big shrug*
What a patronising git , it is people like you we will not miss.
Comments
Interesting never the less.
Rennard viewed fairly criticially, again more so anong older voters, but Clegg's handling gets the thumbs down as well. Also an amusing set of questions asking if voters find various models sexy - the bemused panel of politics nerds respond "Who?" in large numbers.
Do the figures suggest that people are changing their minds, or that former Don't Knows have moved into tyne Yes camp?
If so, that could be worrying for "Better Together"!
The latest polling points to all that being possible.
A triple Whammy
What are the quoted odds against a Tory overall majority at the moment? If Yes wins those odds could be wildly generous.
A yes vote is disastrous for Labour.
Scottish Secession would be devastating for your party, naturally, so I presume you are praying this is an outlier.
This is the highest Yes tally in any independently commissioned poll so far. It represents a six-point swing to Yes since last September, the biggest yet in a campaign in which the polls have been remarkably stable. True, there is one word of caution. The swing is entirely confined to those aged 44 and under. All pollsters, including ICM, find it more difficult to get younger voters to answer their questions. Consequently, their estimates of how such voters will behave are more likely to change randomly from one poll to the next.
It's not as simple as one bit of news 'causing' a shift: we're human, and we see patterns everywhere and love cause and effect (even when we get it wrong). It's easy to say 'this bit of news caused this movement', and you hear people shout this even when the polling occurred before the news. Or to look at a piece of news and say 'this hasn't caused a movement'.
If my theory is right, what is needed is a series of positive news stories bang-bang-bang-bang at the right intervals - the public find it hard to ignore one story, but a series of consecutive stories creates a mood and can alter behaviour. Then when the 'snap' from elastic to plastic does occur, we psephologists tend to blame the last bang only, not the cumulative effect.
If the delay between the news is too long, the plastic hinge never develops.
Naturally, the other sides also try to get this sort of effect, so you have competing materials, perhaps in a bi-metal. But that's stretching the analogy too far ...
As I said before, we need a Young's Modulues for polling. ;-)
When they were well ahead in the polls for the 2011 scottish elections they were quite content to follow the strategy mapped out for them by westminster to go hard on negative campaigning. When the polls began to close their response was to stick firmly to the negative strategy. Even when the polls went from bad to worse and the SNP started to widen their lead little Ed and his strategists thought the fault had surely to lie in still just not being negative enough. This culminated in the very people who dreamed up the scottish labour strategy in the first place making one last effort to double down and put everything into negative campaigning. The 2011 SNP landslide result we know. What is also known is that some of the very same 'masterminds' who charted that strategy out for scottish labour's 2011 campaign are right back in place coordinating the SLAB attacks and strategy for the referendum. Even Iain Gray has been brought back in, because, after all, the polls are all pointing to a No win so the strategy must be working. And even if it starts looking like it's not, they can always double down on the negativity again.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2546078/Labour-civil-war-Balls-lurches-Left-soak-rich-50-cent-tax-bombshell.html
I couldn't possibly comment ....
There is one seasonal factor that might help Conservatives as it unwinds: Christmas. Many firms pay wages early in December, so a there is a six or seven week wait for January's payday.
On-topic: is it the recovery helping Yes, or a post-storm boost for the SNP government? If the latter, it may evaporate.
But as the UK struggles with those things as well and life is already risky and difficult, the risk is less. One of my earlier posts on this was that despite the polls the yes camp had the momentum. Personally I don't want Scotland to leave, but I can see why it is such a temptation for them - no more Tory government, no more London dictat.
I hope Wawrinka can win, but would be significantly surprised. If Nadal wins with such a massive blister it would rather cement his position as the best player in the world.
From your Mail link: Survation pollster Damian Lyons-Lowe said: ‘The 50p income tax proposal is clearly popular in itself – even a fair number of Conservative voters approve of it. But the problem for Mr Balls is he lacks credibility.’
It is the underlying story that is important: the trend and regularity of positive stories. It is easy for a voter to ignore positive stories that don't particularly apply to them: there needs to be lots of positive stories, all applying to different sectors of society, until everyone has several good news story.
That's when the plastic hinge may develop.
Mystic DH 100% wrong record intact
Better PM of the UK:
Cameron: 41
Salmond: 29
Never mind, I'm sure your scottish labour chums will be there to aid SCON and provide you with yet more negative spin for this fairly remarkable independence polling.
Maybe if you ask little Ed and Balls nicely enough they'll come up to scotland to help out the scottish tories and 'better together'?
*chortle*
Again, this will be clever politics. The right hate tax dodgers if they are poor, but celebrate it when they are rich. A one rule for all approach is difficult to argue against and appear to not just be supporting your city benefactors
Labour economic logic
You should celebrate by repeating the exact same spin for the 50p tax cut for richest that heralded the biggest drop in tory polling since before 2010. I'm sure the voters just didn't get the message strongly enough from Osbrowne's omnishambles the last time.
In unrelated news, it's grim out there (again).
@ToryTreasury: There we have it. UK went into the crisis with biggest structural deficit in G7 (IMF data). Ed Balls says that deficit was "not too high".
The man was from the IFS, Labour's favourite economic think-tank. When your own side describes a policy as risky it's probably not a good one.
In reality recent changes to tax by this government appear to have had mostly positive effects, why would Labour chose to reverse them if they are keen to demonstrate economic competence?
On the other hand Morgan is making batting look ridiculously easy.
@ShippersUnbound: Asked if he would spent it all again in pre crisis years, Balls; 'some areas we would spend more...'
It's also worth recalling that the would-be King of North Britain once could not wait to ditch the pound (I believe he said it was a millstone around Scotland's neck, or similar) and now thinks sharing a currency with the UK (having left the UK) is a divine right.
One look at RP's post just shows how economically illiterate they really are.
Meanwhile back at the ranch, I have been trying to tell you all that as a unionist I expect Eck to win his Referendum by a squeaky bum margin.
Interesting news this morning that 58% of the people of rumpUK would either be delighted or not bothered to waken up and find Scotland had left the club.
I wonder if the Parliamentary draftsmen have got that Parliament (Suspension of Scottish Constituencies) Bill 2014 ready yet. GE2015 without the 59 Scottish constituencies would be fun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0
Balls "I am really proud of what we did."
The change is the move of labour to Independence, they have nowhere else to go , it is either be Tories in the UK or have a chance of changing things in an independent Scotland, many of them are not happy with that.
I do hope Scotland remains, but agree it'll be closer than many think.
If and when crossover happens it will be with ICM and then all the other pollsters will fiddle with their weighting etc to ensure they fall into line for fear of being shown to be wide of the mark.
Murnaghan this morning on SKY talking about the Scottish Referendum so might be interesting. Ironically I think a YES vote would be good for the Tory parties on both sides of the Scotland-England border. Scotland's socialist public sector junkies would get a big shock post 18th September when the international markers make it clear the only way an Independent Scotland would be taken seriously is if it adopts a centre-right free market economy, the type John Swinney and chums has quietly been building for the past 7 years while many of his chums have been talking leftie crap to win the Scottish Labour vote over.
Suddenly Catalan secession from Spain would seem quite acceptable, maybe even logical. And the Basque Country .... Wallonia and Flanders... Tyrol in Italy?
We can expect Madrid, Brussels, and London to fight dirty if Salmond looks like winning.
Depending how negotiations happen, it could occur in return for fiscal constraints and as a bargaining chip on certain matters. Disentangling a 300 year old union would require more than just a couple of years (Faslane and the carriers spring to mind).
If the ICM poll remains uncorroborated by other pollsters there will be no establishment panic on the Scottish Referendum.
If we do see a series of polls indicating the gap closing to parity, then reactions will escalate. The first real panic will come from the markets and those global corporates with a heavy exposure to Scotland. Inbound investment decisions will be deferred, exchange rates and bond yields will become volatile and capital flight from Scottish banking institutions will start.
At present the Scottish economy is recovering well with excellent recent employment figures (for the Edinburgh area in particular). A safe "no" expectation with sufficient "yes" support to ensure further devolution remains on the agenda is the only way to ensure this recovery builds.
Politics today is all about economic outcomes. If the markets aren't behind you failure is inevitable.
I wonder about Brussels... weaker nation states might well suit the meddlesome eunuchs of the EU.
Remind me which one of them won a landslide election under a voting system specifically designed to prevent that? And which one couldn't even win a majority under FPTP after the biggest financial crash in decades and so had to run begging to Clegg to save him?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/cumming-cannot-vote-in-2014-poll.22823930
LOL
I do find it amusing that SKY has a major programme on the Scottish Independence issue this morning yet on Friday made no mention of the result of the Cowdenbeath by-election, preferring instead to talk about such world issues as a badly behaved 19 year old Canadian who frankly could do with a good birching!
I appreciate it's simpler to type the word 'fop' and then write another panegyric of Salmond than to actually engage with what's being said by others, but it's quite tiresome.
Edit: Salmond will play on that.
That bloody annoys me. I don't live in bloody Gallia Narbonensis.
If that's true, why do we bother with all the expense of politicians and elections? Couldn't a committee of technocrats do just as well - or better since the markets wouldn't have to allow for political interference?
Tell me, why was it that all your little yellow boxes and spin during Osbrowne's omnishambles were so hilariously inept and pointless since you are now posing as some kind of economic guru? Because I remember you and most of the PB tories getting that one as wrong as it is possible to get.
Maybe you should find stuarttruth again and start pontificating on the next US elections since your spinning for Romney was also comedy gold.
He'll be posting the wiki polling chart next.
We haven't had one today.
But there are clearly other groups in society that are almost as strongly in favour. As a Unionist I hope that differential turnout will favour no but I do think it will be close.
A team of technocrats was prescribed for both Greece and Italy after their leaders/governments fell out with their bosses in Frankfurt and Brussels.
'No money, no honey' is the order of the day.
We don't care much either way. It will make England more Tory, and I suppose that's probably a good thing, going by the latest tax nonsense from miliband. Apart from that - *big shrug*
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-bully-pulpit/
http://wingsoverscotland.com/edited-highlights/
Why not keep the field up?
Still that would make the run-up to the referendum vote much more fun.
I too have said for a while that Scottish independence is a distinct possibility. But I have also said that the case for independence has been poorly thought out. And Salmond's poor effort this week in handling questions about the Ryder Cup jolly could yet be the fly in the ointment. There is not much point in asking the voters to go with your Braveheart New World if it has the appearance of a shiny new country but with the same old troughing politicians just looking out for themselves and their cronies.
But good luck to the Scots. If it does happen, then we could be looking at a horribly uncertain period of rUK government, perhaps with a Prime Minister Miliband robbed of a chunk of his MP's part way through his term, probably when Labour's inevitable economic meltdown mean that his party's polling has gone through the mid-term floor. Not a time to lose a confidence motion and have to go to the country....
Now why would it be that you are so upset at the prospect of polling? Could it be the same reason you and stuarttruth made us all laugh so hard when you were dismissing every poll as you were cheerleading for Romney?
So far, there are three nose types:
The Tusks - Lotus
The Platypus - Ferrari
The Rhino* - Williams/McLaren
*Ok, the Rhino-noses actually conjure up something else, but I'm using family-friendly terms.
I'm most disappointed.