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SKS doesn’t need a LAB majority to become PM – politicalbetting.com
SKS doesn’t need a LAB majority to become PM – politicalbetting.com
All of the discussion after the Chester by-election about whether LAB can get a majority is irrelevant to whether SKS moves into Number 10. The big issue is the Tory seat total.
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https://www.openthebooks.com/substack-why-illinois-is-in-trouble--132188-public-employees-with-100000-paychecks-cost-taxpayers-17-billion/
Alternatively and more palatable for Starmer would be to do a deal with the LDs if just short of a majority as Cameron did in 2010
The facts remain the same - the Tory leader (presumably Sunak, but by then who knows?) stays PM until, after the election, Sir Keir has a demonstrable majority, either through Labour seats alone or some formal agreement with another party or parties.
In this case, possession really is nine-tenths of the law.
This fucking guy
https://twitter.com/itstimconnors/status/1599544717943123969
Also.
https://twitter.com/pentaquarky/status/1599645929518530560
However yes it is very unlikely and only slightly possible if SNP hold balance of power and demand indyref
Rishi might say to Keir 'OK we've lost, it's your turn now, as long as you don't do anything completely stupid we will give you informal support' ie not a coalition, no cabinet seats for CON.
Just an idea but probably not going to happen!
Can you imagine what the likes of Pidcock and Long Bailey would say to a grand coalition? Or even BJO, Nick Palmer and Kinabalu on these very boards?
Starmer would far more likely dare the SNP to vote the Tories back in then go to Scotland and say, 'OK, who's your real enemy?'
If I own my own gaff then that should be a liability I need to pay for, in order to have a gaff to live in, that's not a problem I'm responsible for paying my own way.
If the Duke of Buccleuch owns lots of gaffs, then they should be liabilities he needs to pay for too, scaled up to match whatever he owns.
If you're making productive use out of your land, because you have a productive business or because you need a place to live, then there's no harm in you paying your fair share of taxation from your ownership. As said, land ownership should be taxed as recompense for the community losing access to that land, but if you're using it productively you can afford to pay that tax.
If you're not using it productively, well you always have the option of selling the land and relinquishing the property rights to someone else who can use it as a home of their own to live in rather than being obliged to pay rent to the Duke of Buccleuch who is living off rent-seeking from you.
The key is if you tax land properly, then you deal with the externality of the rest of the community not having access to their land and can significantly reduce income-related taxes meaning that people can keep more of their own efforts, rather than rent-seeking off others.
And we know Nick is so reasonable he'd consider any proposal.
Kinabalu might be a stumbling block.
In the scenario where the Tories have most seats, but are well short of a majority it will likely go to a confidence vote of some sort. The SNP will want a second referendum before supporting a Labour government, Labour won't want to promise that, so it goes to a vote and we'd see whether the SNP would really keep a Tory in Number Ten without a deal.
But I think it's academic because the next election will set more records than Ben Stokes' England Test team.
Nige and other Europhobes will be wanting a stinking Lab majority.
I think it was Johnson he liked rather than the Tories per se. As a shallow, bungling opportunist with racist overtones and a penchant for splurging lots of money he didn't have on things he didn't need I suppose the parallels with Corbyn were gratifying for him.
You don't become a farmer for the money, only to preserve the family farm and provide food and wholesome produce.
If you'd put £10 on this morning, you could have it back, along with the prospect of £400 if Japan go all the way.
Not bad for a football ignoramus.
Is that possible? I have not recorded it
It is mad that you cannot do this. With streamed sports you can go back and watch the entire thing from the start, no problemo - eg Amazon's rugby broadcasts
Agree about the madness.
Would be different if England had a parliament, with Tories in charge, and Labour et al i/c the UK, but it doesn't and it won't.
They're doomed now.
However there is near zero chance of him being in a position to form a government with SNP support on current polls anyway
In any case, the preservation argument doesn't apply to great estates which rent out farms - you can't claim the argument of estate preservation as a justification for renting out farms and them claim it also for owner occupied farms.
All it would do is see more large estates, farms and small businesses be taken over by soulless multinationals
This photograph used by @netflix and Harry and Meghan to suggest intrusion by the press is a complete travesty. It was taken from a accredited pool at Archbishop Tutu’s residence in Cape Town. Only 3 people were in the accredited position. H & M agreed the position. I was there.
https://twitter.com/theroyaleditor/status/1599799660335472641
I'd be surprised if you couldn't watch it through Now TV.
If the Tories are the largest party then I think it would have to be another election. The SNP would then have to explain what the point is of voting for them when they won't get rid of the hated Tories at the first opportunity.
Bluntly, it is hard to see a positive scenario for the SNP in the event of a hung Parliament. They almost certainly won't be getting their referendum, and they will have to either vote Labour in without one or explain why they didn't get rid of the Tories. Neither is a good option.
Their optimum result is a very small Tory majority with zero seats in Scotland. At that point you would have to say the UK government lacked legitimacy north of the border.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11499543/Harry-Meghans-bombshell-Netflix-documentary-war-public.html
It is the likes of Amazon and their warehouses that need to be
taxed more to bring them into line with the corporation tax etc other businesses pay
The tide is turning in large parts of the country towards a closer relationship with the EU and single market and away from the little Englander attitudes of the ERG and Farage
The whole point is that they do not *normally* vote. They did not vote on the student fees issue, for instance, unlike (IIRC) Unionist MPs for Scottish constituencies, with some honourable exceptions amongst the Tories at least.
And losing a couple of votes on popular English-only legislation would be a way to make the argument to the voters that an early election was required where they were given a majority.
It would certainly be a difficult situation and require certain qualities of leadership - seeing what a mess some PMs have created even with a majority you might have low confidence that those skills would be evident, but that says more about the standard of our politicians than the difficulty of the situation.
https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union
That's not principles, that's politics.
Michael Gove drops mandatory housebuilding targets in face of Conservative rebellion
Full story at the @Telegraph's website
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/05/michael-gove-house-building-targets-scrapped-tory-rebellion/
Ireland seems to be the only place in the world you can't watch Doctor Who on catch-up - Disney have bought the rights for everywhere in the world excluding UK & Ireland. Nobody will pay for the Irish rights because you can get the live BBC broadcast signal in most of Ireland, but iPlayer is blocked outside of the UK.
The only remaining alternative is to wait for the DVDs (or use a VPN and give a fake postcode).
The situation with geographical restrictions on media rights is bafflingly complex. At least with Netflix stuff they've produced themselves you know you can watch it wherever you are.
But how come nobody asks *why* the Tories should ask the SNP to vote on English-only matters? They've b een complaining about the West Lothian Question for a quarter of a century and yet did almost nothing on it, setting up and then abolishing EVEL.
Key quote:
The emergence of DIY Assault Drone/Cruise missile production by Syrian warlords, & now AFU, marks a “Revolution in Military Affairs” that rivals the 1967 sinking of the Israeli Destroyer INS Eilat by Egyptian Styx Cruise missiles.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1599806940678303744
Theresa Villiers tells @skynews that Michael Gove has listened on housing targets and councils will be able to get out of them if it damages the “character of the area”
First reported by @TelePolitics
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1599808233761169413
Unless of course the Tories had the sense to realise, as did Heath in 1974 and Baldwin in 1929 but not of course the phenomenally ill-advised Brown in 2010, that it's hopeless and they resign anyway.
There is no requirement for the SNP to publicly support anything.
I know Gus O'Donnell thought otherwise but he was an even bigger and more useless twat than Susan Acland-Hood.
Not much point having long-range precision weaponry if you don't know where to target it - that seems to be one of the key Russian failings.
LAB: 48% (+1)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
REF: 5% (-)
via @RedfieldWilton, 04 Dec
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britainpredicts
We offered Labour votes to defeat the rebels, but Rishi Sunak and Michael Gove seem to have chosen party before country.
This is so weak. In office but not in power.
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1599811012646952966
https://twitter.com/daniel_j_martin/status/1599802725868670976
The revolution with drones/cheap cruise missiles is the breaking of the rules of military procurement - that it is a solemn, ultra expensive way of procuring an ever smaller number of weapons.
People having been talking about how you could knock together a V1 look alike for a few thousand quid a pop, for years. Now it is happening.
It’s something like SpaceX - by ignoring the rules about feeding the politicians, their friends and the rest of the pyramid of the military-industrial base, they’ve got space launch down to a *cost* of $20 million or so for 16 tons to LEO. It’s not magic, just throw away what you don’t need….
There’s no point in dragging out a govt where loony backbenchers have such a huge sway. Looking forward to a large number of these MPs losing their seat
I think it unlikely Charles would depart from that.
All that is needed now is increased allowances for IHT (to Tory-approved nuclear families only).
Sorry, if so @Driver , not very well today, struggling to understand some things.
At the Epping Christmas Trees Festival at the weekend the Epping Society even had a 'Protect our Greenbelt' tree.
You only have to look at Chesham and Amersham and the Tory councillors who have lost their seats to LDs and Independents over housebuilding proposals in local plans to see that.
Though longer term housebuilding targets which were in place and local plans are necessary to get new housing and property owners and potential Tory voters, especially in the expensive London and South East and home counties region, in the short term voters who live there and own property won't thank you for it
64% for LLG is wipeout territory. Add 3% to Labour for Greens coming home, and 3% to Con for REFs coming home, and you still have a handy 10% LD vote to do some nice tactical damage in the South.
But other pollsters are available and I still expect Labour down to low 40s and Tories up to mid 30s by end of 2024.
The best idea suggested here was for Labour to promise half a dozen new towns in Conservative safe seats. Worth it just for the trolling, and might even get built.
Maybe Lisa Nandy needs to catch up with the new labour policy which is now conservative policy
But can't the Conservatives find a less damaging way to do that? Turn Channel 4 into 24 hour rolling Countdown or something. (To be clear, proper Countdown, not that horrible Jimmy Carr version. Poor Rachel and Suzie must be mortified.)
The US is looking at how to revamp its procurement for volume munitions (the ground launched small diameter bomb program is an example).
And one of the most wanted bits of kit in Ukraine is the four decades old Gepard - decent radar, and can cheaply and very effectively shoot down drones:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/10/24/ukraine-launches-android-app-to-track-and-destroy-kamikaze-drones_6001541_4.html
Ought to be relatively easy to produce a cheaper mass produced modern version.
Though the SNP case for a second referendum may be undermined if they go into the election that delivers that hung parliament treating it as a de facto referendum and not making the 50% target they would effectively need to demonstrate majority support for independence. Would be hard to then stand up and say "we won't support your minority Lab government without a commitment to indyref2".
Equally though, if they did make that target would strengthen the case to say no support to Labour without an indyref2 commitment as a bare minimum.
I was relying on Japan's fitter team to see them through in extra time.
Not sure what happened in NI and Wales.
Edit: *obvs in cooperation with local councils of various hues/mixes.
It's why more incremental reform is the way to go - there is not a sufficient problem from the existence of the Lords to spend inordinate time replacing it with something confused, they can take their time and there are some easy quick fixes to start with.
At least it's not us
GO JAPAN
The only way it would be different is if the largest opposition party has fewer MPs than the government, as in 1924 when Baldwin decided to meet Parliament even though Asquith had already announced he would vote the Unionists out and put Labour in.