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Getting Brexit done, badly – politicalbetting.com
Getting Brexit done, badly – politicalbetting.com
The EU transition period ended on Dec 31st 2020. Since then, do you think Brexit has gone well or badly?Well: 12% (-4 since June)Neither well nor badly: 20% (=)Badly: 59% (+5)https://t.co/GJgshKLMmh pic.twitter.com/vDJhSDTbHI
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11472779/Bombshell-polling-reveals-Sir-Keir-Starmer-ahead-Rishi-Sunak-11-12-key-issues.html
Women think men with big ears like Gary Lineker make better lovers, poll reveals
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/women-think-men-big-ears-28592673
But, we aren’t going back into the EU so we need to work out how to make the best of it.
Regulatory alignment and a benign visa regime for young workers would be the obvious frame.
Have some friendly centrist from one of the member states go around saying, "I'd like to make an invitation to the UK to rejoin the EU". Most likely someone influential in one of the member states will say "No, I don't we should let them back in" or "OK but if they rejoin they're doing it properly, full Euro membership, Schengen, no rebate, the proper thing". Starmer can then say, "whatever you think about the merits of rejoining, it's not possible, so put that box away and close the lid".
In the unlikely event that all the stars align and the Friendly European Centrist does actually manage to get everybody to agree to a reasonably status-quo-ante-like version of Rejoin, at that point PM Starmer can say, "The EU have put this invitation on the table, let's get it out of the way and have a quick referendum so we can put it to rest one way or the other".
It's about psephology, history, data, and above all listening.
@TSE
p.s. Starmer has to do and say precisely nothing on Brexit. Like most things. The tories have hung themselves.
So I'm not criticising those oldies on here who are finding it hard to accept the reality that Labour will win a comfortable majority.
But you do need to wake up and smell the coffee, especially if you are betting money.
Yes, Labour are extremely likely to win. I don’t know anyone on here that denies it
Liz Truss signed a “historic” deal with Japan as trade secretary in October 2020, describing it as a “landmark moment for Britain”. It was claimed it would boost trade by billions of pounds and help the UK recover from the pandemic.
However, figures collated by the Department for International Trade show exports to Japan fell from £12.3bn to £11.9bn in the year to June 2022. Exports in goods fell 4.9% to £6.1bn and services fell 2% to £5.8bn.
It's hard for the older folk to take but there really has been a once in a generation sea-change. I know that TSE and Mike are struggling to accept that a Labour majority is likely (go figure Leon) but it behoves those of us who bet serious money to study the facts.
The biggest block to this thinking, apart from the fact that older people find it harder to adapt to changing circumstances, is that people believe in precedence. An outright Labour win from such a poor starting position is unprecedented.
But, and this is the killer to that argument, we have just gone through, and still are, the most unprecedented period in British life since the second world war, which also yielded an unprecedented Labour win.
And unlike 1997, which heralded the last sea-change, the economic circumstances are dire.
I will bet anyone my house that Labour will win an outright majority if they bet me theirs that they won't.
A useful starting exercise would be to picture the House of Commons with fewer than 100 Conservative MPs. Because that's the kind of reality the polls are showing, and the doorstep canvassing reveals.
Reboot your minds. Those young tory MPs jumping ship know it ...
And there I shall leave it. Have a nice day.
xx
Labour will win big. It’s certain
It is possible that @TSE and OGH are staying neutral or being provocative to drum up interest. A dead cert is not an interesting bet. And, as I said last night, the site needs some pepping up
First such accord after leaving EU was predicted to bring £15bn boost but UK now lags rivals
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/26/brexit-britain-japan-trade-deal-exports-slump
Have the Tories blamed this on Liz Truss yet ?
Politics is going through a post Johnson/Truss/Trump recovery. That level of crazy was unsustainable. PB always reflects the world outside.
Meanwhile crazy lurks just below the surface. Yesterday I was called Hitler before 9.30am by our enraged resident Nat.
The total failure of right wing politicians and the pitiful demise of the right wing ideology is an interesting topic.
I probably enjoy their company more than men.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/26/world/europe/nato-weapons-shortage-ukraine.html
TLDR: Ukraine and Russia are both expending weapons at rate that runs far in excess of the capacity to replenish them. At least Ukraine are getting them free (EU) or via a payday loan (USA).
Not mentioned in the article but it occurs to me that it's India's arse that Ukraine should be kissing. They are an artillery army due to Soviet influence and are sitting on reserves of 155mm rounds that are the size of Kangchengjunga.
Because Humanity is failing. Birth rates plunge. The climate roils. People R gettin stupid
We are all fucked
I do make serious bets so let me come clean: I've bet on both a Labour OM and also NOM; my big play is to lay Conservative majority. I have over £300 at risk on it on Exchange.
In my view that covers almost all realistic eventualities, including the possibility of a recovery in 2024, just before the election, as DNV/WNV rally to Sunak and the economy/geopolitical landscape improves, through to Tories being ahead in a hung parliament, Labour being ahead on seats in the same, and even a Labour landslide.
Care to share your bets and how much youve put at risk?
The site isn't poorer for losing its bullies and trolls but insightful, intelligent and interesting below the line posters like @Richard_Nabavi @AlastairMeeks @Cyclefree @david_herdson and even @SouthamObserver . We still have many great regulars, of course, but not as many as we'd like to.
It has been achingly dull the last week or so, and that's because of the World Cup and the fact there's no live politics betting going on.
Head of the Royal Navy defends handling of rape allegations
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63770307
I could pick apart his stupid fails of logic all night, although I'm sure she'd do it much better. But the key point is, he's just said in effect, whether he realises it or not, criminal matters should be investigated by organisations other than law enforcement agencies.
Which is ludicrous. That's how you get these self-perpetuating situations in the first place.
As for his talk about 'the context'...I think he's missed the real context, that too many dangerous and predatory men have power over women and have for years misused it with impunity, entirely.
I couldn't care to list the number of times I've bet on a "dead cert" only for my position to fall apart in the last 6 hours as it becomes clear that isn't what's going to happen.
Be careful.
I rarely agree with you, but it is refreshing to hear a perspective from someone who doesn’t consistently spout the standard BritNat nonsense.
If you were more long-termist in your thinking, would you support Scottish independence?
China? Russia? Lula? Islamist regimes? Venezuela?
Covid was leaked from a lab inside a communist regime, a lab which was funded by the capitalist USA, co-founded by an EU state, and guided by a not-for-profit NGO, Ecohealth
It is the perfect symbol of our perfect storm. Omnigeddon is way beyond party politics. If you really think “Thatcher” is to blame for our systemic woes then you are a fitting example of modern PB: depressingly stupid
Those young people who dissent from orthodoxy do so at their own risk, and the Equity, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI) agenda forces them to self-censor. A majority of Right-leaning young people who said they were taught at least three of five CSJ concepts worried about being expelled or punished for voicing their opinions. Nearly half of Right-leaning employees under 35 who have taken diversity training worry about being fired or losing their reputation.
My work shows that the public opposes wokeness by more than two to one across 25 issues, and these questions split the Left while uniting the Right. Yet the Tories seem incapable of tacking the spread of cultural socialism in schools, the NHS, the police and civil service. Conservative MPs lack both the conviction and courage to act, unlike their US Republican counterparts like Ron DeSantis. Too many are business liberals who pray at the altar of economic dynamism and care little about the country’s culture and traditions. This is reflected in the unprecedented net migration figure of over half a million and the years-long inattention to the flow of asylum seekers crossing the Channel.
If most Britons no longer believe in freedom of speech or scientific reason and view our past as a racist nightmare, this is not some “culture war” sideshow. It undermines the very essence of British civilisation.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/26/school-indoctrination-turning-british-youth-woke-tories-remain/
I know he irked you, but people like him are necessary. They provide needle. The annoying grit that nonetheless makes the pearl of debate
It was an amusing in-joke on PB that we should “stick to betting”. Of course that WAS a joke. If the
debate is one day reduced to basic betting advice then it will be an intellectual desert inhabited by nerds and geeks. And the odd Scot Nat
I fear it is already halfway down that road
Scotland:
Well: 6% (12%)
Neither well nor badly: 17% (20%)
Badly: 68% (59%)
As David Cameron said, leaving the European Union would lead to the 'disintegration' of the United Kingdom.
The key problem with Keir Starmer’s thousand-times-revived Devomax proposal is that it still reserves foreign relations and international treaties to the colonial government in Westminster. It blocks Scotland rejoining our allies in Europe. That is the main reason why it has only 17% support, according to Professor John Curtice.
The second problem is that it is a lie. Again.
I think that they may end up in a Red-Orange-Purple-Green coalition. Colours that are combined in nature only to warn "This critter is highly toxic. Beware..."
If the “bowels of tired right wing dogma” are “diseased and constipated”, how come Truss was “shitted out”? So, the diseased bowels of right wing dogma AREN’T constipated? How does that work then? Did the colon of conservatism suddenly intake a laxative of left wingery? Via the pessary of politicalbetting?
Also, is shitted out right? Surely it’s shat?
Time for a macchiato
First, Sunak’s Tories face Theresa May’s 2017 problem, when she struggled to unite austerity-backing David Cameron voters (many of whom voted Remain in the referendum) with 2016 Brexiteers (many of whom disliked austerity).
In the absence of the twin unifiers of the last Election – the drive to ‘get Brexit done’ under Johnson and horror at the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn in No 10 – the 2019 coalition has collapsed. Anti-austerity Leavers have deserted the party in droves, while more liberal Tory Remainers had already gone.
Next, Sunak has Gordon Brown’s 2010 problem. Brown argued furiously that Britain’s credit crunch and subsequent recession were the result of a global financial crisis, not his own mismanagement.
The voters took a different view – or in any case decided that whoever had caused the problem, they wanted someone else to get them out of it.
Worst of all, it looks increasingly as if Sunak is up against John Major’s 1997 problem – a governing party that looked so exhausted, tainted and ill-disciplined that even a strongly recovering economy could not stave off defeat at the hands of a newly detoxified Labour opposition.
If the Tory back benchers and “anti-growth coalition” don’t get their house in order they’ll go down to an even heavier defeat than they deserve.
Think back to the late 90's, and very early noughties. New Labour was the only game in town for the best part of a decade. Hardly anyone with an interest in politics and ideas went through the blue lane; I wonder if Dave would have done so had he been five or so years younger. That generation is the one in its forties now.
Result? Look at the Conservative movement now. Far too many freaks, chancers and (to go back on topic) Eurobores, because they're the only ones who were attracted by the Conservatives in the days of Major, Hague and IDS. And grumpy old boomers who really ought to have been metaphorically pensioned off by now but are still making what intellectual weather there is.
Whilst they will eventually pull out of this, the party pendulum doesn't stick forever, God knows what that will look like.
The Tories gave the Tory Party Truss. She was an appropriate leader and apt symbol of their self-destructive cause.
Who do you think you are, @HYUFD?
Apart from the legal issue of theft, it makes the threads ridiculously unreadable. (And nearly everyone around here is too loquacious anyway.)
Just read a series of tweets re Brexit from Starmer and he is more anti rejoin than the conservatives
It adds to the narrative he will say anything he thinks is popular but I would suggest a large number of Labour supporters will be dismayed this morning
This is a golden opportunity for the lib dems to come out for rejoining
I expect a Starmer led government but I have no idea how or whether it will be a majority or a coalition
Oh and youngsters were out of control and exams were easier because we weren't as bright.
Ring any bells?
I remember thinking I wasn't going to fall into the same stereotype of my parents and I haven't.
“MIT tells prospective faculty how to write a successful diversity statement.”
“Woe to those students who have immersed themselves wholly in quantum mechanics or classical literature out of the love of the field and of knowledge. Without a track record in promoting diversity, as well as a philosophy of diversity, those people are doomed.”
https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1596561855463432194?s=46&t=mEWZ4fqc1jhlAs0KW9mmXw
Remember, this is MIT
I’m developing a new Theory of Omnigeddon. Right now, every major society on earth is self destructing in its own peculiar way
In the east it’s masks, plunging birth rates, zero covid. In the west, it’s Woke, insane migration, and plunging birth rates. Etc
Convinced he would see the end times.
I though Brexit was supposed to have reinvigorated you.
It is striking that most, if not all of the professions under discussion have seen huge change in recent decades in gender membership. In WW2 (ok 80 years ago) the British army was entirely male. Women served in affiliated roles, but did not go to the front to fight, nor fly bombers over Berlin. Attitudes change. In the Falklands in 1982 it was the same. And yet in 2022 society has moved on and many more women are to be found excelling in the army, navy, police, parliament etc. Does any of this excuse terrible behaviour and attitudes towards women? Of course not. But it does provide context. Many of those men in those environments entered it in a different era, I do not expect my father to share my attitudes to everything - he’s 83, and lived a different life. I do expect him to be kind and do the right thing, and as a policemen for 30 years and a Guardsman before I hope and believe he did.
Ultimately too many men are brought up badly, or have traumatic childhoods. My aunt, who was a social worker, opened my eyes to the shit start in life some get.
I note the recent TV ads about misogyny and think it’s a good start.
But the battle isn’t going to be one by tarring all men with the same brush.
Starmer is further to the right than the Tories. That doesn’t go down well in Prestonpans, Lochgelly or Shettleston.
Labour have entirely tailored their offering to the most reactionary elements of English society. Fair enough. But there are consequences to such a choice.
With regard to discussions about whether it is ‘shitted’ or ‘shat’, you have the perfect metaphor for the current dynamic range of right wing thought. The outcome is the same.
I remember when the right had challenging thinkers.
Perhaps you should consider the possibility that we are, as a species, quite comprehensively fucked in a way we haven’t been since WW2 at least - and possibly as far back as the Ice Age
There was probably an old Roman git in about AD 379 who kept saying “Look, these Ostrogoths worry me” and everyone said “oh shut up, the empire is fine, have a fried dormouse”
Why she is so wrong to ignore the warnings of the UN Rapporteur about the risks of self-ID for Scottish women & girls
https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1596781351968989186
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/27/nicola-sturgeon-will-endanger-women-if-she-opens-single-sex-spaces-almost-everone
Or, Labour, having been forced to actually give some policies and facing a large amount of scrutiny, don’t do quite as well as expected, make no headway in Scotland, and scrape over the line.
I know you believe that it’s nailed on because reasons, but you may be wrong.
Why are (some on) the right such snowflakes on this? If they disagree, then argue their side and have faith in their ability to win the argument. It's nothing new having raving left teachers - I was taught by an actual communist and a member of the SWP but it didn't get me voting for Corbyn.
I tend to agree. Trussism was the fever of Brexit, finally breaking
The patient thrashed with a rictus grin, the temperature peaked, we came close to the end, and then Doctor Hunt-Sunak, with his pills, hurried from the room and told us the recovery would be long
Right now we are hoping for a better prognosis from old Doc Starmer, with his ancient elixirs
https://twitter.com/georgvh/status/1596123168472801281?s=46&t=pyRopc9M1bFTGAIaw0wZJA
But the most likely outcome is that Sturgeon, a self-professed feminist and nationalist, will leave the door wide open for a Conservative government in Westminster to step in to protect Scottish women, by updating the Equality Act to clarify its sex-based protections for women apply only to those who are biologically female.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/27/nicola-sturgeon-will-endanger-women-if-she-opens-single-sex-spaces-almost-everone
And so on
As it happens, I am not entirely pessimistic. I think we are on the cusp of a technological revolution - esp AI - which might save us (tho it also brings hazards). However it is foolish and juvenile to deny that we face a polycrisis of unprecedented challenges
The meat producer, based in Hull, is spending £4 million to recruit the butchers to alleviate labour shortages.
Last year, a staffing crisis hampered production, leaving Cranswick with 25 per cent fewer staff at its plants in Hull and Norfolk. Staff shortages have hit many meat processing firms as a combination of employees leaving and an absence of new workers have restricted growth.’
https://apple.news/AzOuA6TLcQiqnJ3oyjBPsnw
Friend of mine works in a slaughterhouse, an engineer on the machines. A bloke I know vaguely down the pub works at the same place, killing the livestock. He’s a weird bloke.
Not a place I’d like to work. Not surprised these places are struggling to recruit. Unsurprisingly, in half the roles you spend most of the time covered in blood.
Good job we’ve taken back control to fly people half way round the globe at vast cost. It’s not like food prices haven’t risen sharply already.
Move on please.
Mr. Monkey, there are valid criticisms of the way things have turned out. A failure to predict persistent double digit inflation caused by Russia invading Ukraine is not on that list.
More importantly, the questions in the survey are pretty dreadful. It's not:
Have you been taught that white people are responsible for all the bad things in the world*
It's:
Have you heard at school or from a teacher that some people might think that white people, etc.
My children are at school. In LA. Aged 14 and 12.
I have literally not a single moment of concern that they are being taught that white people are responsible for all the bad shit in the world.
Are they being taught that some institutions are structurally racist? Not that I've noticed, but if they said if of police forces in Alabama, I can't say I'd disagree.
My kids are getting much the same diet of bullshit I always got. If there's one area where woke is genuinely prevalent (as in, I'm seeing and hear it, rather than I'm learning about it from hysterical voices in the press or on PB), it's probably gender. There is - undoubtedly - far more pronoun focus than I give a shit about.
Right, I'm off to bed.
So long suckers.
* Yes, I know, I'm being ridiculous.
I think this thing has to be fought state by state, through educational and cultural institutions.
Same applies here, but our politicians are too cowardly and back down at the first sign of opposition from the broadcast media and civil service.
You can only have robust and interesting debate if people are themselves robust. Otherwise we will end up like mastodon (shudder)
We need him back.
His books are some of the most considered and thought-provoking I've tried on the subject, and far more reasoned that you'd prefer to characterise him as.
I bet you haven't read them. You should.
OIL MARKET: Washington eases its oil sanctions on Venezuela, allowing Chevron (for the next 6 months) to pump crude in the Latin American nation and export it into the United States. A major shift in the White House policy
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1596562915645165573
Explain how you think my previous comment was invalid, if you would.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63768031
The challenge is how we maintain and improve the living standards of all, and that means balancing the currently shit lives of too many of the global south, or whatever the current term is, against those of people in the rich nations. In a just work, everyone everywhere would have the same life chances. It goes without saying that we are a million miles from that.
But is 2022 scarier or worse than 1962, or 1939? Or 1348?
I don’t think so. We know the scale of the challenge. And we have incredible scientific and engineering abilities. FFS we developed a vaccine against a novel deadly virus within weeks, tested same and started vaccinating people in under 10 months.
In the U.K. we have increased renewable power generation on an incredible scale. Challenges of storage aside, it’s possible now to envisage using no fossil fuel for electricity.
That’s progress.
I fear @leon has been doomscroling twitter again. I also note he has not travelled for a couple of weeks, and it’s winter, so the black dog is feeling up on him. Time to book a flight…
@eefjerammeloo
Chilling. The national anthem. Especially that phrase ‘qi lai!’ (‘stand up!’). Never seen anything like this. Well, except in #HongKong…
‘Down with the party! Down with Xi Jinping!’ Free Xinjiang!’
https://twitter.com/eefjerammeloo/status/1596570777037713409
LAB GAIN from CON @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
MAJ: 7.4%
pollingreport.uk/seats/E14000846
https://twitter.com/pollingreportuk/status/1596549368840179713?s=46&t=pyRopc9M1bFTGAIaw0wZJA
I would never claim to have any expertise in Somerset voting behaviour, but I was under the impression that this part of England was more of a Con/LD battleground?
Relevant to the comment upthread regarding the absence of the Lib Dems.
He’s done his time. Release the Ish
Tsinghua university right now👇🏼 city after city seeing protests small and large against Zero Covid policies and against excesses of Communist Party rule - every hour there seems to be a new one
https://twitter.com/EmilyZFeng/status/1596769092840873991