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This look problematic for ministers – politicalbetting.com
This look problematic for ministers – politicalbetting.com
Breaking news: The UK’s economy is set to be the worst performer in the G20 bar Russia over the next two years, according to the OECD https://t.co/BiGs0rHChn pic.twitter.com/cohlrKKJPt
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Hand of God 1
I've mentioned a few times on here about the absurd phenomenon of central government trying to use Council's as a whipping boy that gets blamed for what are basically their own bad political decisions.
What has happened is government have started sending in Commissioners when the financial position of the Council's in question becomes impossible. This has gone on for a while, in Liverpool and Croydon for instance, and what seems to happen is once the Commissioners are in, they tend not to leave, because there is no real way of fixing the problems, because they are rooted in the impossible financial position of local government, which is in turn due to failings in government policy, as well as other things like government creating large new unfunded statutory duties. It is basically all the 'austerity' chickens coming home to roost.
To address this problem and the increased demand for this work government are now setting up a new department to appoint inspectors to 'turn around' Councils.
The wage...... £1200 per day.
So that is the equivalent of £264000 per year (assuming you work for 44 weeks).
https://dluhc-turnacouncilaround.com/
Argentina surely didn’t score.
Do Britons believe the UK Government is currently taking the right measures to address the cost-of-living crisis? (20 November)
No 58% (-8)
Yes 25% (+5)
Don't know 17% (+2)
Changes +/- 13 November
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1595024411459227648
I WIELDED THE CURSE OF THE MIGHTY LEONDAMUS
Forget the idea that Rishi Sunak is a Thatcherite. All his political hopes and fears are embodied in John Major. Sunak desperately wants to emulate Major the general election winner of 1992, rather than the loser of 1997. That's why the Conservatives are already starting to borrow from their successful 1992 campaign playbook - and it's also why Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves should study the election that Labour lost in 1992, rather than the party's landslide win in 1997.
https://www.qmul.ac.uk/mei/news-and-opinion/items/rishi-sunaks-major-dilemma.html
Nothing is forever.
Having said that, how many of their players still play in domestic leagues? Maybe not that many.
Wages like everything obey the laws of supply and demand which is exactly why Wolffson can't get workers...he still wants to pay minimum wage and with FoM still in place he would be able to and no Brexit isnt the only reason for it. The reason for it is a smaller labour pool. The smaller labour pool has multiple reasons but the ending of FoM is certainly one of them.
A lot of people I know were minimum wage people in hospitality and before the ending of FoM the standard response if they asked for a rise was if they don't like the wage they can quit as plenty of people to replace them. Where was the economic bonus of the EU for those people? Sure people like you, rochdale and Wolffson did ok from us being in the EU, the bottom half of the country not so much
Robison says that amendments which use the phrase ‘for the avoidance of doubt’ “don’t add value to our laws”. #GRRBill
https://twitter.com/lnmackenzie1/status/1594988624797466626
Robison saying she will support Pam Duncan Glancy’s amendment 37 on Equality Act which says “For the avoidance of doubt, nothing in this Act modifies the Equality Act 2010.”
https://twitter.com/lnmackenzie1/status/1595025054576050179
Of course, teams from places with awful regimes is different to being hosted by one.
The next step will be when prudent councils responding sensibly run out of money. That's pretty much inevitable now.
Two things to watch in the 'LURB' bill.
A government amendment for 'street votes'. So basically, instead of having the Council take a planning decision, it is decided instead by way of a referendum by people in the local area. So all the objectors can basically unite to vote down any proposal for development. The planning system gets replaced by direct democracy. This is actually likely to happen, it is going to probably become law.
Secondly, 46 tory backbenchers have backed an amendment that takes away housing targets, so Councils are under no actual obligation to build new housing. Something like this will happen given the level of support it has.
This is all absolutely psychotically stupid and insane. It is actually going to end the property development industry and all the jobs and economic growth it creates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_squads#Argentina
No votes in fixing local council funding.
And planning is even more stupid, when government rules dictate and guidance is about encouraging development, but as you note in desperate efforts to save votes they want to go simultaneously in the other direction on local consent.
I've not yet seen how they think they can force it without them. And certainly they won't manage to simply encourage the required amount to happen.
MPs are awful on planning - since they are not decision makers they have no reason not to pander even to minority or loony concerns (see Wera Hobhouse - yes I know the official objection was not the 5G health but that was clearly the reason for many objectors), or try to get the Secretary of State to step in, which causes long delays.
It is always European teams that win nowadays, and a small group of them too. I am on the French to win, Spain too. I don't think this is a good enough German side. England, or Belgium are in as an outside chance.
Going for tax rises/spending cuts at a time of economic hardship inevitably means that such hardship will be worse than it needs to be.
Even if the Conservatives did scrape a 1992-type win, in 2024, they'd get slaughtered in subsequent local elections, and the next general election, so what really is the point?
However removing major planning decisions from local authorities to direct referendum is probably going too far and would lead to most development projects and local plans being voted down
If the EU is to blame for low wages I struggle to understand why the EU is home to so many high wage economies. I think it is much more to do with the Thatcherite economic model we've been pursuing for the last few decades, and which leaving the EU will have no effect on.
How do we increase productivity and growth? Well, the Govt thinks the answer is to reduce R&D tax credits for start-ups.
I'd venture that 2024 isn't 1992. Nor is it 1997.
It's 2024.
They shouldn't have been surprised, but no one else should either as they were clear what path was being taken. No good options left.
You had England down for a draw against Iran – you have changed your tune somewhat.
Saying it could be 'like' 1992 doesn't mean exact, 'like' is a very flexible word.
I dare say it's a fool's errand in political terms just as it is in meteorology.
In general, I'm fairly sceptical that these sorts of tax incentives increase R & D in any meaningful sense (and I have taken advantage of them in the past, for genuine R & D). They of course increase the amount of company expenditure which is classified as R & D, but that's a different matter. Even with no fraud or dodgy accounting at all, the dead cost - subsidising R & D which would have been done anyway - must be huge.
a) The economy grows by 3% year on year but half the population has to live on governement handouts such as working tax credits with falling living standards
b) The economy doesnt grow but everyone can make enough in wages to live reasonably comfortably and while living standards arent improving nor are they getting worse.
Personally I would choose b) everytime
If no statute ever created doubt in the world of legal interpretation there would be a lot fewer lawyers. For example the SC decision due tomorrow (I think) on the Scotland Act would not be needed.
To me one interpretation of it is obvious and unambiguous; to the SNP the opposite applies.
Does this do that? IDK, plenty of decisions and pain deferred, but I don't think the choice was straightforward either.
Is Chloe Smith's decision to quit politics a sign that the Tories believe they are heading for a wipeout in 2024?
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/are-tory-mps-beginning-to-quit-politics-to-avoid-election-routing_uk_637cb72ce4b06d5b60996798
I never did understand what the point of it was. There’s very little I want “Alexa” to do except perhaps to unload the dishwasher or take the bins out and she can’t do that.
https://twitter.com/kevin_maguire/status/1595037077544075269
I also put 0 growth in
Now I hope we will get to b with some growth, though maybe not as much as we would have if we were in the eu but its going to be a long slog with many strands needed to be in place.
Two strands I believe removal of FoM solves.
First it rebalances the supply and demand nature of the jobs market whereas before we had for all intents infinite supply and that seems to be to an extent working with wage rises for a lot that hadnt seen any for years when you discount legally mandated minimum wage rises.
Secondly and jury is still out on this one and it will take time to work through. As managers realise they can't just throw more cheap labour at a task they will start thinking about how to increase productivity via automation. An example often cited being a french building site the first thing they set up is a mini crane whereas we hire bodies to carry bricks around.
There are many other strands we need to work on such as monetising ip generated from universities, encouraging entrepreneurship, encouraging long term thinking in business etc.
Our main problem now sadly is we are led by pygmies...not only politicians but senior managers
Perhaps I lack imagination.
All the stuff I want to do on a screen involves consumption of text or images.
I do not think the two are the same thing.
I have an Alexa in my living room, another in the kitchen, and the Google version in the bedroom
It is particularly useful in the kitchen when I am generally using my hands. It can play music to accompany the cooking, it can set multiple timers for boiling, frying, roasting, it gives me recipe tips, tells me how many teaspoons in a tablespoon, it offers gastronomic advice (fry kale for 3 minutes!), it tells me the weather, it can phone people, tells me when and which shops are open - and 1000 more things
I absolutely rely on it. It’s brilliant
Also, you make a comparison to a French building site. France, of course, is in the EU and has FoM. So, why are the French better at making that sort of investment?
https://twitter.com/yousaf1788/status/1595030709588168704?s=46&t=i2CCJY004C4dX9W8DFZ7uw
The scorer is minted for the rest of his life
The point is: defining yourself as still being "for" or "against" something that has already happened is pointless, and detracts from where you should be, which is being "for" something that can be done in future to improve things. "I wouldn't start from here" is a waste of time.
Their last series of lockdowns was to buy time to vaccinate their population. But the amount of vaccine hesitancy in China is really high, especially amongst the older generations (which is especially bad for covid), and they've failed again.
With a celebration to match. He does a total body flip
As to the immigration remaining the same I would say its not feeding into labour supply for the following reasons
a ) a lot of non eu immigration is family based and not necessarily here to join the work force whereas most FoM was young people coming to join our work force
b ) How do you know immigration is the same we had no idea how many were coming in as the home office is useless and didn't count them but relied on some people with clip boards at a few airports and ports asking a random selection of people. Since brexit there have been some huge anomalies between the number the government thought we had and the number applying for leave to stay
c ) Migration is now points based and the people coming in aren't going into bar work or waiting tables or being a barista
It shows the effect of having enough people scared of vaccines.
"I am against Brexit" is silly.
A case fatality rate of 4.7% - 1 in 20 dying - suggests the health system broke down in Hong Kong. That’s like the original Wuhan CFR
So they can’t ever really Unlockdown. Unless they get those people jabbed
It’s deeply mysterious. This is a regime which is happy to lock people in homes, or imprison millions
Yet they don’t make the jabs compulsory 😶
For ultimately, that is China's way out as it was for many other countries, hard ask or not.
There is a fundamental problem in that some peoples labour is just not economic to an employer, producing less output than the input. We choose to subsidise their pay, other nations tolerate higher unemployment for the low skilled. There are advantages to each, but our rivals do get productivity and economic growth as well as higher wages.
I wouldn't want to go back to the mass unemployment of Thatchers Britain, but an unemployment rate a bit higher might well solve our dependency on immigration.
Or controlling music. If I'm washing up dishes I can change the music without having to dry my hands and touch a screen.
And the kids like to control music with it too, the youngest often speaks gibberish to it and its amusing to see what comes out. My children recently discovered a love of Toto from the 80s, not because they'd heard of it but because "Toto" [toe-toe] was something random my daughter asked Alexa to play and all of a sudden Africa was playing and they loved it. 🤣
Its not exactly life-changing, but its certainly nice to have.
“WATCH: Scenes of unrest emerged in China’s Guangzhou as residents knocked over quarantine barriers and flooded the streets after a Covid lockdown was extended.
This was a rare show of protest against China's zero-Covid policy, which has been in force for nearly three years.”
https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1592541685086507008?s=46&t=s3QorvE2IqPllw8NgXB8tA
https://twitter.com/sara_tassera/status/1595002914635849728?s=46&t=s3QorvE2IqPllw8NgXB8tA
Not good for Xi
a) There was plenty of family-based immigration when we were in the EU. There’s plenty now. I’ve not seen stats showing a major shift in this.
b) The Home Office is poor at many things (a good reason to vote out the people in charge), but I think the numbers are broadly accurate. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-june-2022 has plenty of details. You misrepresent methods used.
c) https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-june-2022/why-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-work “ There were 331,233 work-related visas granted in the year ending June 2022 (including dependants). This was 72% more than in 2019, the last full year prior to the pandemic.
“ ‘Worker’ visas (previously known as ‘skilled work’) accounted for two-thirds (67%) of all work-related visas granted with 216,450 grants. This is almost double (+96%) when compared to equivalent routes in 2019, with the growth driven by the introduction of the ‘Skilled Worker’ visa in 2020. Grants from ‘Temporary Worker’ routes have also increased by 67% to 72,526, following an increase in the number of visas available through the ‘Seasonal Worker’ route, from 2,500 in 2019 to 40,000 in 2022.”
Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov had clearly given up on the idea of defeating Ukraine militarily. In his desperation to scare the West into stopping its support, he resorts to nuclear threats—but even fellow propagandists are sick of it & say he lost all sense of reality.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1594915216026112000
A Chinese colleague, at work, has long calls where he tries to convince the elderly in his family to get Pfizer etc....
But as long as, absurdly, a fantastic frictionless free trade association believes it should also be a parliament, flag, currency union, diplomatic entity, embryo nation-state, have powers over our Supreme Court and parliament, be the umpire of people movements for 500,000,000 people etc it is going to be a struggle.
SFAICS in this mess the only sane way forward is, uniquely, an agreement between centrist Tory, Lab, LD and SNP to move towards EEA/EFTA. It has to be killed as an election busting issue or we shall never progress. I am not holding my breath. They missed the chance after 2016. I fear they will keep doing so.