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The question that won’t go away for Sunak – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 15 in General
The question that won’t go away for Sunak – politicalbetting.com

Will you apologise for the £30 billion black hole created by your predecessor and Party? – @BethRigby Rishi Sunak refuses to apologise and refers back to the speech he made when he first became PM in which he said "mistakes were made".https://t.co/zn1yfsZxbw? Sky 501 pic.twitter.com/nYJHjj7EiF

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Comments

  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469
    Maybe We Are Doomed Anyway, part 2,392


    "Humans could face a reproductive crisis if action is not taken to tackle a drop in sperm count, researchers have warned after finding the rate of decline is accelerating.

    "A study published in the journal Human Reproduction Update, based on 153 estimates from men who were probably unaware of their fertility, suggests that the average sperm concentration fell from an estimated 101.2m per ml to 49.0m per ml between 1973 and 2018 – a drop of 51.6%. Total sperm counts fell by 62.3% during the same period."

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/15/humans-could-face-reproductive-crisis-as-sperm-count-declines-study-finds

    It really does feel like a bizarre conflation of apocalyptic forces is determined to kick humans off the planet. I'm calling it The Omnigeddon: Revenge of Gaia
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,768
    edited November 15

    British political journalism is in the gutter.

    Epitomised by the screaming of stupid questions at politicians in Downing Street, then turning back to the camera and appearing to be serious. Pillocks.

    I feel like a lose a few IQ points anytime I make the mistake of turning on the TV news these days. I only turned it on this evening because bloody WWIII might be breaking out, and my ear drums got assaulted by Death Rigby screaming at Sunak playing the sort of silly games we see from twitter employees who get their marching orders a few hours later for trying to same nonsense with Emperor Elon.
  • Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,811
    Lindt balls is my answer to the burning question of the day.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,981

    It was pathetic "when did you stop beating your wife" style "journalism", all to try and get clicks for a headline of "PM won't apologise". Not serious a interview line of inquiry. Everybody knows that Sunak explicitly and repeatedly laid out why Truss plan was a bad idea during the leadership election (and he was proved correct).

    The real question(s) should be ok, you got the steering wheel now, what you going to do and why.

    No. it’s not an unreasonable question.

    “Mistakes were made” is way more pathetic.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,304

    Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.

    In needs a snazzy name. No-one is remembering "mini-budget" in 20 years. We didn't even get truss-gate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    It was pathetic "when did you stop beating your wife" style "journalism", all to try and get clicks for a headline of "PM won't apologise". Not serious a interview line of inquiry. Everybody knows that Sunak explicitly and repeatedly laid out why Truss plan was a bad idea during the leadership election (and he was proved correct).

    The real question(s) should be ok, you got the steering wheel now, what you going to do and why.

    To me its like those catchy yet counter productive slogans or phrases, like climate reparations or defund the police, which put off some people who would otherwise be sympathetic to the actual core aims being expressed.

    Trying to get a top politician to apologise is unlikely to succeed, won't really ruffle them, and won't be appreciated even if they give it, which is another reason they rarely do, on top of not wanting to look weak.

    It's a distraction to frame it that way, and probably makes it easier for him to avoid grapping with how bad things are and whether his plans will do any good, since while how bad things are is still part of the question, the framing gives him a hook to prevaricate if he wants to, since he can waffle on about the apology part.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    carnforth said:

    Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.

    In needs a snazzy name. No-one is remembering "mini-budget" in 20 years. We didn't even get truss-gate.
    Well it has the Trussterf*ck, but not really suitable for all hours reporting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,768
    edited November 15
    Nigelb said:

    It was pathetic "when did you stop beating your wife" style "journalism", all to try and get clicks for a headline of "PM won't apologise". Not serious a interview line of inquiry. Everybody knows that Sunak explicitly and repeatedly laid out why Truss plan was a bad idea during the leadership election (and he was proved correct).

    The real question(s) should be ok, you got the steering wheel now, what you going to do and why.

    No. it’s not an unreasonable question.

    “Mistakes were made” is way more pathetic.
    The mere uttering of "Learning lessons" and "mistakes were made" should require you to do an I'm a Celebrity style bushtucker trial. I am informed that at the moment Matt Hancock appears to be doing them for everybody on a nightly basis.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    Nigelb said:

    It was pathetic "when did you stop beating your wife" style "journalism", all to try and get clicks for a headline of "PM won't apologise". Not serious a interview line of inquiry. Everybody knows that Sunak explicitly and repeatedly laid out why Truss plan was a bad idea during the leadership election (and he was proved correct).

    The real question(s) should be ok, you got the steering wheel now, what you going to do and why.

    No. it’s not an unreasonable question.

    “Mistakes were made” is way more pathetic.
    How he will deal with the 30bn black hole his party caused is a reasonable question, and is no doubt part of the overall package of points. But whether he will apologise for it is meaningless.

    I don't care if he apologises for it or not, I care whether he can do anything about it. That doesn't require a public mea culpa.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,930

    British political journalism is in the gutter.

    Epitomised by the screaming of stupid questions at politicians in Downing Street, then turning back to the camera and appearing to be serious. Pillocks.

    +1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    My wife has now contracted covid in hospital.

    :rage:
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,100
    Can anyone explain to me how the Truss/Kwarteng mini budget created a £30bn black hole? Has the cost of government borrowing permanently gone up as a result?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,874
    dixiedean said:

    Sizeable COVID outbreak at my school.
    Just enough staff to keep going, but exactly that. If anyone else goes down we can't maintain mandated staff/pupil ratios (that is one teacher per scheduled class). No prep time whatsoever. We'll be reliant on the supply agencies tomorrow.
    I'm fine. Negative.

    Hi Dixie, this is stuff of my nightmares! I organise the cover in my school, luckily it's been sporadic at worst on the staff. We don't know about the students as we don't have tests anymore.
  • Sunak's problem is that he can't really turn around and say the Tory membership made the mistake in preferring Truss to him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,861
    He said mistakes were made which is correct but is moving on.

    Apologies can look weak and certainly as he was not PM or Chancellor at the time no need for him to apologise. We will see in more detail in Hunt's mini budget how he and Sunak aim to resolve the problem
  • carnforth said:

    Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.

    In needs a snazzy name. No-one is remembering "mini-budget" in 20 years. We didn't even get truss-gate.
    Liztopia
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,390

    dixiedean said:

    Sizeable COVID outbreak at my school.
    Just enough staff to keep going, but exactly that. If anyone else goes down we can't maintain mandated staff/pupil ratios (that is one teacher per scheduled class). No prep time whatsoever. We'll be reliant on the supply agencies tomorrow.
    I'm fine. Negative.

    Hi Dixie, this is stuff of my nightmares! I organise the cover in my school, luckily it's been sporadic at worst on the staff. We don't know about the students as we don't have tests anymore.
    Given overall vaccine levels surely people aren't having to isolate etc so unless one is badly affected why should they even have to miss work?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,469

    My wife has now contracted covid in hospital.

    :rage:

    Sounds grim. Good luck. God speed
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,267

    dixiedean said:

    Sizeable COVID outbreak at my school.
    Just enough staff to keep going, but exactly that. If anyone else goes down we can't maintain mandated staff/pupil ratios (that is one teacher per scheduled class). No prep time whatsoever. We'll be reliant on the supply agencies tomorrow.
    I'm fine. Negative.

    Hi Dixie, this is stuff of my nightmares! I organise the cover in my school, luckily it's been sporadic at worst on the staff. We don't know about the students as we don't have tests anymore.
    There were a few students today with really bad coughs. We can't test them or send them home. We have tests for the staff. We've been taking extended loo breaks to test on a rota. There aren't many supply available right now.
    Most are being offered a choice of school. Do you want XY or Z?
    School X (the nice, easy middle class one wins of course).
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,957

    Sunak's problem is that he can't really turn around and say the Tory membership made the mistake in preferring Truss to him.

    Sunak's real problem, as I said in the previous thread, is the fragile unity within the Parliamentary Party.

    There was, and is, a sizeable minority of Conservative MPs who think the Kwarteng policy was the right policy and the mistakes were in presentation and going off too hastily. John Redwood has said as much today - he basically wants Hunt to implement a more measured version of Kwarteng.

    This significant minority believe the only way to win re-election is to cut taxes and spending to boost growth - full stop. Now, I might argue that's a fundamental misreading of the public mood but that's not they see it - indeed, they see tax rises as another nail in the Party's coffin in terms of re-election.

    Sunak has to consider that - there's no guarantee, having undermined two Prime Ministers, there isn't the capacity to knock over a third especially if the polls remain as disastrous as they are (24 points down with one I saw today).

    The inflation figure tomorrow will be revealing - if, as in the US, there are signs the inflationary spiral is running out of steam, the possibility of interest rates not rising as much as feared heaves into view. If, however, inflation looks to be rising, the Government will need to convince the markets it can and is getting on top of the inflationary problem - I'm not quite sure how raising benefits in line with inflation achieves that but Sunak will argue (of course) he has to be seen to be helping the poorest.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    Leon said:

    My wife has now contracted covid in hospital.

    :rage:

    Sounds grim. Good luck. God speed
    Thanks. I shouldn't be surprised, but I am left angry.

    The odd thing is the conflicting way they are dealing with it. Maybe @Foxy can comment if he is around? She has been moved to a separate bay in the ward, well away from others. Yet they did not bother to tell various visitors over last couple of days that she was positive.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,920
    I am told that the staff at Lakenheath have asked that movements of planes not be posted on the internet.

    Any 24 hour supermarkets open where you are?
  • Leon said:

    Maybe We Are Doomed Anyway, part 2,392


    "Humans could face a reproductive crisis if action is not taken to tackle a drop in sperm count, researchers have warned after finding the rate of decline is accelerating.

    "A study published in the journal Human Reproduction Update, based on 153 estimates from men who were probably unaware of their fertility, suggests that the average sperm concentration fell from an estimated 101.2m per ml to 49.0m per ml between 1973 and 2018 – a drop of 51.6%. Total sperm counts fell by 62.3% during the same period."

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/15/humans-could-face-reproductive-crisis-as-sperm-count-declines-study-finds

    It really does feel like a bizarre conflation of apocalyptic forces is determined to kick humans off the planet. I'm calling it The Omnigeddon: Revenge of Gaia

    They must have missed the bit where there are now 8 billion of us:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-63624651
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,467

    My wife has now contracted covid in hospital.

    :rage:

    Very sorry to hear that - wishing her a very speedy recovery.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,729

    Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.

    Nineteen years as per Jefferson
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,160
    Surely we can all agree to disagree with Mike’s closing contention?

    Liz Truss is a titan of our times. A visionary. A freedom fighter for liberty and all that is right. She will return: renewed, refreshed, reinvigorated. This is a mere interval in our audience to her greatness.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,744

    It was pathetic "when did you stop beating your wife" style "journalism", all to try and get clicks for a headline of "PM won't apologise". Not serious a interview line of inquiry. Everybody knows that Sunak explicitly and repeatedly laid out why Truss plan was a bad idea during the leadership election (and he was proved correct).

    The real question(s) should be ok, you got the steering wheel now, what you going to do and why.

    Obviously the Tories would love to simply change leader and have us believe that everything that went before never happened and had nothing to do with them but I doubt the voters are going to buy it.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,160

    Its interesting how all the politicians / public figures will get dragged over the coals for ever more for any mistake made over COVID (even if some of it was only known in hindsight). Yet all the total dickheads in the media, when it was crucial to get things right, instead every day f##ked up, caused confusion, broke the rules and kept raising every ridiculous loophole they could think of, still there on our screens, demanding apologies of others.

    Quite like Beth Rigby TBH.

    Beth Rigorous, that’s what they call her.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,100
    I'll repeat what I said on the previous thread. Can anyone explain where the £30bn comes from? Debt interest I assume?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,160
    carnforth said:

    Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.

    In needs a snazzy name. No-one is remembering "mini-budget" in 20 years. We didn't even get truss-gate.
    In 20 years, maybe just two years, it will be known simply as: Genius. And Liz simply as: Upside.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Looking at the header I was expecting the question to be Who knew what when about complaints, formal or not, about that odious pig Raab?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,609

    I'll repeat what I said on the previous thread. Can anyone explain where the £30bn comes from? Debt interest I assume?

    Doesn't Truss's unfunded Energy Price Cap freeze have some role in there?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,398
    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,248

    carnforth said:

    Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.

    In needs a snazzy name. No-one is remembering "mini-budget" in 20 years. We didn't even get truss-gate.
    On topic, when Truss’s plan for a growth bounty to boost the economy caused a ripple and was met with snickers in the City she was caught twix a rockie road and a hard place. It put her in a right twirl and she decided to take some time out.

    I heard a wispa that the new PM plans to fudge the books - maybe the City will be kinder but it’s not going to be a picnic. We just have to remember it’s a marathon not a sprint.
    When it comes to the crunchie, I think Sunak is going to find it toffo than he thinks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 44,981
    The protests against the regime in Iran show no sign at all of stopping.

    Iranian security forces shoot dead at least two demonstrators
    Forces opened fire as protests sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death swelled on anniversary of bloody 2019 crackdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/15/iranian-security-forces-shoot-dead-at-least-two-demonstrators
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,334

    My wife has now contracted covid in hospital.

    :rage:

    Sorry to hear that
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,609
    mwadams said:

    carnforth said:

    Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.

    In needs a snazzy name. No-one is remembering "mini-budget" in 20 years. We didn't even get truss-gate.
    On topic, when Truss’s plan for a growth bounty to boost the economy caused a ripple and was met with snickers in the City she was caught twix a rockie road and a hard place. It put her in a right twirl and she decided to take some time out.

    I heard a wispa that the new PM plans to fudge the books - maybe the City will be kinder but it’s not going to be a picnic. We just have to remember it’s a marathon not a sprint.
    When it comes to the crunchie, I think Sunak is going to find it toffo than he thinks.
    Especially if his party begins to flake and the fruit & nut cases form a breakaway.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,160
    T


    R


    U


    S


    S

    What a lady.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 875
    Off topic, but some interesting numbers:

    "If we focus exclusively on [House] districts where the margin of victory was less than 15 points, such that the seat was conceivably in the balance, the picture that emerges is quite different.

    In these 114 districts, candidates bearing Trump endorsements underperformed their baseline by a whopping five points, while Republicans who were without Trump’s blessing overperformed their baseline by 2.2 points — a remarkable difference of more than seven points."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/15/data-trump-weighed-down-republican-candidates/

    It is likely that, if Trump had just shut up after his loss in 2020, Republicans would have taken the Senate this year, and scored significantly larger gains in the House.

    (More evidence for my -- mostly joking -- theory that Trump is a Democratic plant, installed to damage the Republican Party. And it does appear to be true that Bill Clinton encouraged Trump to run in 2016.)
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,634
    edited November 15

    Can anyone explain to me how the Truss/Kwarteng mini budget created a £30bn black hole? Has the cost of government borrowing permanently gone up as a result?

    No, those costs are back where they otherwise would have been (relative to similar economies). As ever, it’s a massive oversimplification and nonsense to say there’s a £30Bn “blackhole”* because of the Tories. However them’s the breaks. Labour wasn’t responsible for the 2008/9 crash and the Tories did what all the talking heads recommended on the ERM. Facts and politics are different countries and always have been.

    *The “blackhole” phrase bothers me as, given the origin, surely it should mean that our finances are infinitely dense, not that there’s an absence.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    T


    R


    U


    S


    S

    What a lady.

    S

    I

    R



    G

    A

    V

    I

    N


    What a knight.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,334

    carnforth said:

    Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.

    In needs a snazzy name. No-one is remembering "mini-budget" in 20 years. We didn't even get truss-gate.
    On topic, when Truss’s plan for a growth bounty to boost the economy caused a ripple and was met with snickers in the City she was caught twix a rockie road and a hard place. It put her in a right twirl and she decided to take some time out.

    I heard a wispa that the new PM plans to fudge the books - maybe the City will be kinder but it’s not going to be a picnic. We just have to remember it’s a marathon not a sprint.
    Reminded me of this

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bqeGxMgVOHI

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,093
    Why not
    Roger said:

    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far

    He'll probably get better but you can at the moment see a young and inexperienced politician not comfortable with scrutiny.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,363

    I'll repeat what I said on the previous thread. Can anyone explain where the £30bn comes from? Debt interest I assume?

    It's bullshit.

    There's no way the marginal debt interest expense for Gilts issued during the brief Truss/Kwarteng spike comes to £30bn.

    PSBR is about £20bn/month. If we also assume £10bn of gilts rolled over in the month (which I would doubt), then there is a maximum of £30bn of UK government debt issued at elevated rates.

    If we assume an average maturity of ten years, and a 200 basis points increase in debt servicing costs, then we get 10 years * £30bn * 2%.

    Which is £6bn,

    Which is almost certainly too high.

    Obviously, if the elevated rates were in place for six or 12 months, then you start to get to some serious numbers. But a couple of weeks after a bum budget will have resulted in a couple of billion of excess interest payments, no more.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    biggles said:

    Can anyone explain to me how the Truss/Kwarteng mini budget created a £30bn black hole? Has the cost of government borrowing permanently gone up as a result?

    No, those costs are back where they otherwise would have been (relative to similar economies). As ever, it’s a massive oversimplification and nonsense to say there’s a £30Bn “blackhole”* because of the Tories. However them’s the breaks. Labour wasn’t responsible for the 2008/9 crash and the Tories did what all the talking heads recommended on the ERM. Facts and politics are different countries and always have been.

    *The “blackhole” phrase bothers me as, given the origin, surely it should mean that our finances are infinitely dense, not that there’s an absence.
    I think the Special Financial Operation is the black hole, and the 30bn is what gets within its event horizon.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,467
    kinabalu said:

    Why not

    Roger said:

    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far

    He'll probably get better but you can at the moment see a young and inexperienced politician not comfortable with scrutiny.
    My take on Sunak is a very strong desire to be accepted by his peers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,093
    Jonathan said:

    Tories don’t want to talk about how they crashed the economy and cost us billions. 🤷‍♂️

    Yes, I'm not a fan of the "will you apologize?" mantra but they - meaning he since he's the PM - can't expect not to have the minibudget catastrophe on the media agenda for quite some time yet. Maybe by 2035 it'll drop away.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,502
    I’m sorry Mike, I disagree with your header. I think Sunak’s strategy for dealing with the Truss intermezzo is a strong one - mistakes were made, but don’t explain further.

    One thing that may have dragged the Con rating so low this year is the amount of blue on blue. If this is the case, Sunak is wise to try and avoid more.

    This is the first time the UK has changed Prime Ministers during a Parliament by having a full leadership contest, and going to membership - and look where it’s left the parties ratings in eyes of the voters. Just as you enter opposition by all means have debate for soul of your party, but after the blue on blue the losers have to show discipline and show support - this was blue on blue whilst governing, nor did Truss and Kwarteng have any discipline from losers afterwards.

    Your header seems to be suggesting it’s wise for Sunak to break that discipline for party unity, stir party division again in his answers to Rigby?
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 404
    Hardly anybody in the country at the time of the next GE will give the slightest toss about what happened in September 2022.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 404
    edited November 15

    kinabalu said:

    Why not

    Roger said:

    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far

    He'll probably get better but you can at the moment see a young and inexperienced politician not comfortable with scrutiny.
    My take on Sunak is a very strong desire to be accepted by his peers.
    He's obviously got severe emotional problems, otherwise he wouldn't donate money to the boarding school he went to. Most ex-inmates of say Wormwood Scrubs or Broadmoor aren't like that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,398
    edited November 15
    Jonathan said:

    Tories don’t want to talk about how they crashed the economy and cost us billions. 🤷‍♂️

    I'm not sure you're right. The impression I'm getting with Sunak is that he's delighted to draw attention to Truss's mistakes so he can be the knight on the white charger.

    Her questions above were plain stupid. They played into his hands. The more she was doing a job on Truss the more he was preening himself. He didn't want them to stop. All his Christmasses had come at once. As for the inane questions about apologising for Truss being useless....he could hardly suppress a giggle

    It was Gibbon and Mason who gave him a hard time. They were canny enough to know that if you want to embarrass Sunak ask questions about his mistakes not hers!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    Someone kindly drew my attention to a new blog by Cyclefree:

    https://www.legalfeminist.org.uk/2022/11/14/chestertons-fence/

    “Lessons will be learnt”. How often do we hear this? If only. Lessons are not learnt: not by those who should learn them; not enough to prevent similar problems happening again.

    Why?…..

    It is unconscionable for the Scottish government to ignore evidence, to refuse to listen to women who have suffered abuse, to refuse to acknowledge the possibility of risks let alone assess them, to take no steps to mitigate them, not to do the necessary research, to assert what they would like to be true rather than engage and explain.


    There is one comment which may not be quite accurate - that we don’t know much about trans prisoner offending rates - there is data:

    https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/18973/pdf/

    Of the 125 transgender prisoners counted by the prison service in 2017, 60 had been convicted of sexual offenses, including 27 convicted of rape (BBC News 2018). In the overall prison population, by comparison, 19% of males had been convicted of sexual crimes and only 4% of females (Ministry of Justice 2018b)
  • YokesYokes Posts: 987
    edited November 15
    I like this idea that the Truss budget suddenly put a massive hole in the public finances.

    I am not sure it did all of that on its own. This additional deficit could well be based on the forecasts & the difference between one OBR report back when and now. At one time the OBR didnt foresee inflation at the levels its at & and expected growth which isnt going to happen. The Truss budget didnt create either of those. Its damage on the public finances was borrowing costs which the budget was responsible for.

    Ukraine & Poland

    Whilst we wait for firm confirmation of what exactly landed on Polish soil what we can say is:
    1. Yes it could have been a Ukrainian long range air defence missile
    2. It could have been a Russian air to ground or surface to surface missile
    3. It could have been a Russian air defence missile of the same type as the Ukrainians. The Russians have been using S300s in an improvised surface to surface role for many weeks.
    4. There is a long range Polish radar station that has complete sight of anything in that region and the area is has enough ground & air sensors that it could microwave your brain. They will already have a high if not 100% confidence on its origin

    One other thing, amid the idea of a winter pause in hostilities as if its some kind of football league, why should their be one? The Ukrainians are getting an awful lot of gear designed to operate in all but the harshest winter weather. Any pause is just as likely to be regroup, resupply and battlefield prep related as it is seasonal.
  • Does anyone rate Reth Bigby
  • YokesYokes Posts: 987
    DJ41 said:

    Hardly anybody in the country at the time of the next GE will give the slightest toss about what happened in September 2022.

    They will remember it and for many the die is already cast for their vote next time around
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    DJ41 said:

    Hardly anybody in the country at the time of the next GE will give the slightest toss about what happened in September 2022.

    I disagree. People are always claiming 'People won't care about/remember X', and it's true in the sense people won't reference the specific thing, but pressure builds up, and major events shake people's perceptions and make them interpret new events and announcements differently.

    What's happened in the last few months has built for some time, and may have fundamentally shifted what people will accept in terms of political argument. So people will, in fact, give a toss about what happened, even if they don't think to specifically reflect on it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,467
    DJ41 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why not

    Roger said:

    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far

    He'll probably get better but you can at the moment see a young and inexperienced politician not comfortable with scrutiny.
    My take on Sunak is a very strong desire to be accepted by his peers.
    He's obviously got severe emotional problems, otherwise he wouldn't donate money to the boarding school he went to.
    Well, that sort of plays in. I feel like that's where his snottier moments come from - insecurity. I don't blame him for it. But it's a very difficult world, and I don't trust Sunak to defend us in the counsels of the world if he's going all out to impress everyone there with what a good chap he is.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,609
    edited November 15
    OT Was Trump supposed to be announcing his 2024 run tonight?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229
    Yokes said:



    One other thing, amid the idea of a winter pause in hostilities as if its some kind of football league, why should their be one? The Ukrainians are getting an awful lot of gear designed to operate in all but the harshest winter weather. Any pause is just as likely to be regroup, resupply and battlefield prep related as it is seasonal.

    I think to a degree people just assume fighting does not happen on a large scale in winter conditions, when presumably it always has done, if the forces have the capability and resources to allow for it, and if it is in their interests.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    He finally put on a suit...


  • YokesYokes Posts: 987

    OT Was Trump supposed to be announce his 2024 run tonight?

    Apparently. I still have my doubts that a) he will run and b) he is really going to be running to the finish.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    OT Was Trump supposed to be announce his 2024 run tonight?

    Still expected apparently.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-announce-president-2024-rcna36987
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    He finally put on a suit...


    Sell out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,609
    rcs1000 said:

    I'll repeat what I said on the previous thread. Can anyone explain where the £30bn comes from? Debt interest I assume?

    It's bullshit.

    There's no way the marginal debt interest expense for Gilts issued during the brief Truss/Kwarteng spike comes to £30bn.

    PSBR is about £20bn/month. If we also assume £10bn of gilts rolled over in the month (which I would doubt), then there is a maximum of £30bn of UK government debt issued at elevated rates.

    If we assume an average maturity of ten years, and a 200 basis points increase in debt servicing costs, then we get 10 years * £30bn * 2%.

    Which is £6bn,

    Which is almost certainly too high.

    Obviously, if the elevated rates were in place for six or 12 months, then you start to get to some serious numbers. But a couple of weeks after a bum budget will have resulted in a couple of billion of excess interest payments, no more.
    I thought the £30bn was just an estimate of the unfunded cost of the mini-budget spending (energy) and tax-cut commitments.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,467
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories don’t want to talk about how they crashed the economy and cost us billions. 🤷‍♂️

    I'm not sure you're right. The impression I'm getting with Sunak is that he's delighted to draw attention to Truss's mistakes so he can be the knight on the white charger.

    Her questions above were plain stupid. They played into his hands. The more she was doing a job on Truss the more he was preening himself. He didn't want them to stop. All his Christmasses had come at once. As for the inane questions about apologising for Truss being useless....he could hardly suppress a giggle

    It was Gibbon and Mason who gave him a hard time. They were canny enough to know that if you want to embarrass Sunak ask questions about his mistakes not hers!
    Gosh. I completely agree. Good call.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    It’ll be the Queen Mum next,

    Russian Telegram channels are now pushing the conspiracy that the missile strike in Poland was a British provocation

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592610774668939264
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,248

    mwadams said:

    carnforth said:

    Like Black Wednesday and the Great Financial Crisis the Truss Interregnum is the sort of thing that keeps a party out of power for a generation*.

    *A proper generation, not a Scottish generation.

    In needs a snazzy name. No-one is remembering "mini-budget" in 20 years. We didn't even get truss-gate.
    On topic, when Truss’s plan for a growth bounty to boost the economy caused a ripple and was met with snickers in the City she was caught twix a rockie road and a hard place. It put her in a right twirl and she decided to take some time out.

    I heard a wispa that the new PM plans to fudge the books - maybe the City will be kinder but it’s not going to be a picnic. We just have to remember it’s a marathon not a sprint.
    When it comes to the crunchie, I think Sunak is going to find it toffo than he thinks.
    Especially if his party begins to flake and the fruit & nut cases form a breakaway.
    They certainly don't look United. Tory split in. 5, 4, 3, 2 ,1.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,838

    Off topic, but some interesting numbers:

    "If we focus exclusively on [House] districts where the margin of victory was less than 15 points, such that the seat was conceivably in the balance, the picture that emerges is quite different.

    In these 114 districts, candidates bearing Trump endorsements underperformed their baseline by a whopping five points, while Republicans who were without Trump’s blessing overperformed their baseline by 2.2 points — a remarkable difference of more than seven points."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/15/data-trump-weighed-down-republican-candidates/

    It is likely that, if Trump had just shut up after his loss in 2020, Republicans would have taken the Senate this year, and scored significantly larger gains in the House.

    (More evidence for my -- mostly joking -- theory that Trump is a Democratic plant, installed to damage the Republican Party. And it does appear to be true that Bill Clinton encouraged Trump to run in 2016.)

    From the same article:

    "If we look at all 401 contests in which a single Democrat faced a single Republican, there is not much difference. Relative to baseline expectations derived from their districts’ recent voting patterns (as calculated by the Cook Partisan Voting Index), 144 Trump-endorsed candidates exceeded their baselines by an average of 1.52 points. In 257 races where Trump did not endorse a general-election candidate, Republicans exceeded their baseline by 1.46 points."

    Doesn't this imply that in the districts which were won by over 15 points Trump-endorsed candidates performed better than the ones he didn't endorse?

    Not sure I really get why Trump endorsed candidates did better than the ones he didn't endorse in non competitive districts, but worse in competitive districts.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DJ41 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why not

    Roger said:

    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far

    He'll probably get better but you can at the moment see a young and inexperienced politician not comfortable with scrutiny.
    My take on Sunak is a very strong desire to be accepted by his peers.
    He's obviously got severe emotional problems, otherwise he wouldn't donate money to the boarding school he went to. Most ex-inmates of say Wormwood Scrubs or Broadmoor aren't like that.
    There's a bloke I know who was expelled for drink and corrupting the youth at age 16 or 17, promptly ODed on paracetamol and spent 2 weeks not quite dying, no children of his own but his stepchildren went, with his approval, to state schools, who shows up on the same page as Sunak as having donated 4 figure sums at least 3 years running. WTAF? The mind boggles, or as they say there, bogles.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,334
    rcs1000 said:

    I'll repeat what I said on the previous thread. Can anyone explain where the £30bn comes from? Debt interest I assume?

    It's bullshit.

    There's no way the marginal debt interest expense for Gilts issued during the brief Truss/Kwarteng spike comes to £30bn.

    PSBR is about £20bn/month. If we also assume £10bn of gilts rolled over in the month (which I would doubt), then there is a maximum of £30bn of UK government debt issued at elevated rates.

    If we assume an average maturity of ten years, and a 200 basis points increase in debt servicing costs, then we get 10 years * £30bn * 2%.

    Which is £6bn,

    Which is almost certainly too high.

    Obviously, if the elevated rates were in place for six or 12 months, then you start to get to some serious numbers. But a couple of weeks after a bum budget will have resulted in a couple of billion of excess interest payments, no more.
    I’ve kind of blocked the mini budget from memory… but I thought that not all the changes have been reversed (eg eliminating the reduction in NICs?). So perhaps the £30bn is “if we don’t reverse this then we will have a deficit of X”
  • YokesYokes Posts: 987
    edited November 15

    It’ll be the Queen Mum next,

    Russian Telegram channels are now pushing the conspiracy that the missile strike in Poland was a British provocation

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592610774668939264

    Between them and the Iranians I dont know which set credit us more for having such considerable powers. I suspect if this fleshes out, it will be due to interference by the Brits with the missiles guidance. The UK got the blame for messing about with Russian comms early on in the war, though that probably did have something in it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,408
    Yokes said:

    I like this idea that the Truss budget suddenly put a massive hole in the public finances.

    I am not sure it did all of that on its own. This additional deficit could well be based on the forecasts & the difference between one OBR report back when and now. At one time the OBR didnt foresee inflation at the levels its at & and expected growth which isnt going to happen. The Truss budget didnt create either of those. Its damage on the public finances was borrowing costs which the budget was responsible for.

    Ukraine & Poland

    Whilst we wait for firm confirmation of what exactly landed on Polish soil what we can say is:
    1. Yes it could have been a Ukrainian long range air defence missile
    2. It could have been a Russian air to ground or surface to surface missile
    3. It could have been a Russian air defence missile of the same type as the Ukrainians. The Russians have been using S300s in an improvised surface to surface role for many weeks.
    4. There is a long range Polish radar station that has complete sight of anything in that region and the area is has enough ground & air sensors that it could microwave your brain. They will already have a high if not 100% confidence on its origin

    One other thing, amid the idea of a winter pause in hostilities as if its some kind of football league, why should their be one? The Ukrainians are getting an awful lot of gear designed to operate in all but the harshest winter weather. Any pause is just as likely to be regroup, resupply and battlefield prep related as it is seasonal.

    If it's an S-300, as seems probable, then it's Ukrainian as it's too far west to be Russian. (S-300 range = few hundred km at best.)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592603808634638336
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,334

    kinabalu said:

    Why not

    Roger said:

    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far

    He'll probably get better but you can at the moment see a young and inexperienced politician not comfortable with scrutiny.
    My take on Sunak is a very strong desire to be accepted by his peers.
    Well since doesn’t know anyone working class he kind of needs their approval

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    kle4 said:

    He finally put on a suit...


    Sell out.
    I know. Not been elected five minutes and he ditches the whole platform.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,502
    edited November 15
    biggles said:

    Can anyone explain to me how the Truss/Kwarteng mini budget created a £30bn black hole? Has the cost of government borrowing permanently gone up as a result?

    No, those costs are back where they otherwise would have been (relative to similar economies). As ever, it’s a massive oversimplification and nonsense to say there’s a £30Bn “blackhole”* because of the Tories. However them’s the breaks. Labour wasn’t responsible for the 2008/9 crash and the Tories did what all the talking heads recommended on the ERM. Facts and politics are different countries and always have been.

    *The “blackhole” phrase bothers me as, given the origin, surely it should mean that our finances are infinitely dense, not that there’s an absence.
    I think it’s the Tories putting this BS out there ahead of the budget, to justify their money grab.

    Beth used 30 billion, many newspapers now say sixty billion.

    There was a fantastic graph on PB last week, I think Ping, borrowing costs have gone up the same across Europe (except we seemed to start from a higher base) so that’s not fault of Truss and tge budget either. Nor the temporary run on the pound caused by US interest rates and strength of dollar against every currency. Nor were any of Truss tax cuts or policies actually implemented. Sunak’s policies have maxxed out the UK credit card with money pits like eat out to help out, Sunak is the one who presided over the mess pension schemes have got into. Sunak was the chancellor who carried on printing money long after it wise to do so.

    So my theory is Sunak and Hunt are bullshitters - they need money for services like NHS, need money to bail out councils, need money to buck the energy market till April - they need money to pay for THEIR policies and invent rubbish about black holes to justify their “mug everyone” budget.

    If it’s a painful budget, it’s to pay for Sunak’s years at treadury, not Kwartengs hours there.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 987
    Dura_Ace said:

    Yokes said:

    I like this idea that the Truss budget suddenly put a massive hole in the public finances.

    I am not sure it did all of that on its own. This additional deficit could well be based on the forecasts & the difference between one OBR report back when and now. At one time the OBR didnt foresee inflation at the levels its at & and expected growth which isnt going to happen. The Truss budget didnt create either of those. Its damage on the public finances was borrowing costs which the budget was responsible for.

    Ukraine & Poland

    Whilst we wait for firm confirmation of what exactly landed on Polish soil what we can say is:
    1. Yes it could have been a Ukrainian long range air defence missile
    2. It could have been a Russian air to ground or surface to surface missile
    3. It could have been a Russian air defence missile of the same type as the Ukrainians. The Russians have been using S300s in an improvised surface to surface role for many weeks.
    4. There is a long range Polish radar station that has complete sight of anything in that region and the area is has enough ground & air sensors that it could microwave your brain. They will already have a high if not 100% confidence on its origin

    One other thing, amid the idea of a winter pause in hostilities as if its some kind of football league, why should their be one? The Ukrainians are getting an awful lot of gear designed to operate in all but the harshest winter weather. Any pause is just as likely to be regroup, resupply and battlefield prep related as it is seasonal.

    If it's an S-300, as seems probable, then it's Ukrainian as it's too far west to be Russian. (S-300 range = few hundred km at best.)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592603808634638336
    No idea but I'd assume its launch point if it was Russian surface to surface was from Belarus.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,999

    biggles said:

    Can anyone explain to me how the Truss/Kwarteng mini budget created a £30bn black hole? Has the cost of government borrowing permanently gone up as a result?

    No, those costs are back where they otherwise would have been (relative to similar economies). As ever, it’s a massive oversimplification and nonsense to say there’s a £30Bn “blackhole”* because of the Tories. However them’s the breaks. Labour wasn’t responsible for the 2008/9 crash and the Tories did what all the talking heads recommended on the ERM. Facts and politics are different countries and always have been.

    *The “blackhole” phrase bothers me as, given the origin, surely it should mean that our finances are infinitely dense, not that there’s an absence.
    I think it’s the Tories putting this BS out there ahead of the budget, to justify their money grab.

    Beth used 30 billion, many newspapers now say sixty billion.

    There was a fantastic graph on PB last week, I think Ping, borrowing costs have gone up the same across Europe (except we seemed to start from a higher base) so that’s not fault of Truss and tge budget either. Nor the temporary run on the pound caused by US interest rates and strength of dollar against every currency. Nor were any of Truss tax cuts or policies actually implemented. Sunak’s policies have maxxed out the UK credit card with money pits like eat out to help out, Sunak is the one who presided over the mess pension schemes have got into.

    So my theory is Sunak and Hunt are bullshitters - they need money for services like NHS, need money to bail out councils, need money to buck the energy market till April - they need money to pay for THEIR policies and invent rubbish about black holes to justify their “mug everyone” budget.
    It might be £100bn by Thursday 👿
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,046
    Interesting choice of words….

    BREAKING:

    The Polish government confirms that the missile that struck Poland and killed 2 Poles today “is a Russian-produced missile”.


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1592660147473895424
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,100
    Yokes said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Yokes said:

    I like this idea that the Truss budget suddenly put a massive hole in the public finances.

    I am not sure it did all of that on its own. This additional deficit could well be based on the forecasts & the difference between one OBR report back when and now. At one time the OBR didnt foresee inflation at the levels its at & and expected growth which isnt going to happen. The Truss budget didnt create either of those. Its damage on the public finances was borrowing costs which the budget was responsible for.

    Ukraine & Poland

    Whilst we wait for firm confirmation of what exactly landed on Polish soil what we can say is:
    1. Yes it could have been a Ukrainian long range air defence missile
    2. It could have been a Russian air to ground or surface to surface missile
    3. It could have been a Russian air defence missile of the same type as the Ukrainians. The Russians have been using S300s in an improvised surface to surface role for many weeks.
    4. There is a long range Polish radar station that has complete sight of anything in that region and the area is has enough ground & air sensors that it could microwave your brain. They will already have a high if not 100% confidence on its origin

    One other thing, amid the idea of a winter pause in hostilities as if its some kind of football league, why should their be one? The Ukrainians are getting an awful lot of gear designed to operate in all but the harshest winter weather. Any pause is just as likely to be regroup, resupply and battlefield prep related as it is seasonal.

    If it's an S-300, as seems probable, then it's Ukrainian as it's too far west to be Russian. (S-300 range = few hundred km at best.)

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592603808634638336
    No idea but I'd assume its launch point if it was Russian surface to surface was from Belarus.
    Bit of a blind spot there from 'expert' Dura Ace.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,924
    The trend of random members of the public trying to prevent the police carrying out their duties is quite worrying.

    image

    https://twitter.com/MPSIslington/status/1592486438951849984
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,634

    It’ll be the Queen Mum next,

    Russian Telegram channels are now pushing the conspiracy that the missile strike in Poland was a British provocation

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592610774668939264

    Makes you proud, how much they like to blame us.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,467

    kinabalu said:

    Why not

    Roger said:

    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far

    He'll probably get better but you can at the moment see a young and inexperienced politician not comfortable with scrutiny.
    My take on Sunak is a very strong desire to be accepted by his peers.
    Well since doesn’t know anyone working class he kind of needs their approval

    I don't think he is after working class approval; I think he said precisely that silly thing to be 'in the club' with his posh mates. I am not posh and didn’t go to a posh school, but I've said daft supercillious things to fit in with a group before.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,634

    The trend of random members of the public trying to prevent the police carrying out their duties is quite worrying.

    image

    https://twitter.com/MPSIslington/status/1592486438951849984

    Is it a trend? Have there been others?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    biggles said:

    It’ll be the Queen Mum next,

    Russian Telegram channels are now pushing the conspiracy that the missile strike in Poland was a British provocation

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592610774668939264

    Makes you proud, how much they like to blame us.
    Provocation?

    Not sure they understand the word.

    We incited them to do it with Liz Truss's anti-russian rants?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    biggles said:

    It’ll be the Queen Mum next,

    Russian Telegram channels are now pushing the conspiracy that the missile strike in Poland was a British provocation

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592610774668939264

    Makes you proud, how much they like to blame us.
    It's the World Service that really gets up Putin.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,100
    If RCS is right and I've no reason to doubt him it just shows that the central problem is really one of growth. The UK economy is still smaller than it was pre-pandemic and there is little forecast for growth. Why?
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 10

    This is the first time the UK has changed Prime Ministers during a Parliament by having a full leadership contest, and going to membership - and look where it’s left the parties party’s ratings in eyes of the voters.

    Liz Truss was the second time. Boris Johnson was the first.
  • novanova Posts: 468
    kinabalu said:

    Why not

    Roger said:

    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far

    He'll probably get better but you can at the moment see a young and inexperienced politician not comfortable with scrutiny.
    Thank god he's got plenty of time to learn his trade before he gets into a position with the power to really mess things up.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kinabalu said:

    Why not

    Roger said:

    I don't rate Beth Rigby but he was equally evasive on Ch4 and on the BBC. Gary Gibbon gave him a really torrid time and the questions had nothing to do with deficits or Liz Truss. They were about his shady Cabinet appointments.

    At first i thought Gibbon was going too far but after several minutes of Sunak's evasion I could understand why. He just wouldn't answer his questions. He was being slippery Just prepared answers to questions he wasn't asked.

    The Boris Johnson technique in other words. He came across as slippery. Chris Mason asked the same questions and got the same treatment. Sunak has a lot to learn. Having a personal PR company will only take you so far

    He'll probably get better but you can at the moment see a young and inexperienced politician not comfortable with scrutiny.
    My take on Sunak is a very strong desire to be accepted by his peers.
    Well since doesn’t know anyone working class he kind of needs their approval

    I don't think he is after working class approval; I think he said precisely that silly thing to be 'in the club' with his posh mates. I am not posh and didn’t go to a posh school, but I've said daft supercillious things to fit in with a group before.
    But if you are a Soton doctor's son who goes to Winchester n Oxford, where are you going to pick up working class mates?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,100
    Muesli said:

    This is the first time the UK has changed Prime Ministers during a Parliament by having a full leadership contest, and going to membership - and look where it’s left the parties party’s ratings in eyes of the voters.

    Liz Truss was the second time. Boris Johnson was the first.
    Johnson did hold an election shortly afterwards.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,229

    biggles said:

    Can anyone explain to me how the Truss/Kwarteng mini budget created a £30bn black hole? Has the cost of government borrowing permanently gone up as a result?

    No, those costs are back where they otherwise would have been (relative to similar economies). As ever, it’s a massive oversimplification and nonsense to say there’s a £30Bn “blackhole”* because of the Tories. However them’s the breaks. Labour wasn’t responsible for the 2008/9 crash and the Tories did what all the talking heads recommended on the ERM. Facts and politics are different countries and always have been.

    *The “blackhole” phrase bothers me as, given the origin, surely it should mean that our finances are infinitely dense, not that there’s an absence.
    I think it’s the Tories putting this BS out there ahead of the budget, to justify their money grab.

    Beth used 30 billion, many newspapers now say sixty billion.

    There was a fantastic graph on PB last week, I think Ping, borrowing costs have gone up the same across Europe (except we seemed to start from a higher base) so that’s not fault of Truss and tge budget either. Nor the temporary run on the pound caused by US interest rates and strength of dollar against every currency. Nor were any of Truss tax cuts or policies actually implemented. Sunak’s policies have maxxed out the UK credit card with money pits like eat out to help out, Sunak is the one who presided over the mess pension schemes have got into.

    So my theory is Sunak and Hunt are bullshitters - they need money for services like NHS, need money to bail out councils, need money to buck the energy market till April - they need money to pay for THEIR policies and invent rubbish about black holes to justify their “mug everyone” budget.
    It might be £100bn by Thursday 👿
    Whatever plans are announced I assume that, if it restores some confidence (even if meaning a further polling hit), then I'd expect said plans to be scaled back in 6-12 months - tax rises deferred, cuts delayed - once the government has shown willing at least.
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