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A tribute to Sir David Butler – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Remaining Midterms wishlist

    1. Dems retain House - still theoretically possible, but I admit very unlikely
    2. Kari Lake defeated - I'm quite hopeful on this
    3. Lauren Boebert defeated - Less likely, but possible. Looks like there will be a recount no matter who is leading.
    4. Sen Warnock reelected in Georgia runoff - I think this will happen.

    Even if all 4 fail it's still been a pretty great set of results.

    Georgia will probably have a lower turnout if it isn't crucial to senate control.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
  • Kari Lake supporters outside the Maricopa ballot counting center: “We the people are requesting the military to step in and redo our election. It was fake.” 🎥 Reuters

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1591823911356076032
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    DJ41 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT: I read a book on Greek history, a modern work, in which the historian extolled the virtues of 'interpreting' history according to new schools of thought. Such as Marxism.

    Bastardisation and revisionism mean modern works can be as bad or worse as older works for bias.

    Edited extra bit: I also read a Norse myth book (recent) including a section on the historical Ivar the Boneless which suggested his lack of bones was indicative of a more forward thinking Viking sentiment with less reliance on physical prowess. Except Justin Pollard in his biography of Alfred the Great explains the nickname may simply be a mistranslation (I forget of what) which means the author is either deliberately omitting a relevant fact as it's inconvenient to their agenda or they know less than me, the reader, which also does not seem very reassuring.

    Edited extra bit 2: I also stopped watching one history YouTube channel when the chap behind it described sex-determined roles in medieval farming as being due to outdated gender stereotypes. Sure. Because men being twice as strong as women and other biologically caused and observable facts are just *so* 14th century.

    Marxist approaches can be very fruitful in reinterpreting ancient history. It's great knowing Pericles gave this speech and Nicias lost this battle and Socrates had this dialogue, but it is also instructive to know or at least ask where the money was coming from and who was exploiting whom along the way.
    I think from Morris_Dancer's statement it was the ones which are aa bit more than simply thinking about economic issues and systems that would be problematic, as with any approach which involves fitting things into a preconceived ideology.
    Here's a brilliant book by the cleverest man I personally know, and he is expressly marxist and so is his approach in the book:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reciprocity-Ritual-Developing-City-State-Paperbacks/dp/0198150369

    I think the ideological approach can be fruitful. If you start from the hypothesis that some bugger is exploiting some other bugger, as per uncle Karl, and go out looking for oppressive exploitation it can yield useful insights. In my case, and had had the energy to turn this into a book or at least paper, that the ancient Greek world was one fucking great garment sweatshop, the workers being every single woman who wasn't a priestess or a prostitute. They are all spinning or weaving 24/7 in plays and on vases and in Homer.
    Yes, of course it's true that it's the material production relations that define the nature of any fundamentally exploitative society. It's not ideology to recognise that; it's the truth.

    Nothing wrong with the study of surface, though, even through time. It's thinking the surface is the underlying that's ideological (and stupid). As for "yes, 'we' need that way of looking at things and several other ways too", that's super-stupid and can also be amusing - a case of academics admiring their own reflections while carefully avoiding stepping on each other's toes.

    Marxism absolutely does NOT go well with anything that's academic whatsoever. That was part of the original downfall in the 1871-1914 period in Germany with the SPD. (Nice symbol you use here, though, Dura.)
    Well, that's certainly not true. It's extremely useful as a theoretical framework for identifying social and economic trends particularly relating to imbalances built up by the accumulation of wealth in different groups. Heck, I use it for that all the time and I'm no Marxist.

    It just doesn't work as a political philosophy because it essentially assumes people act according to mathematical formulas. And they don't.
    Quite. Who is to say that those Greek women did not derive a great deal of pleasure from their weaving? …
    What, all of them ?

  • FPT @Sean_F I'd love to read the original archives and papers of General Howe, Clinton and Cornwallis.

    I never feel I've read a fully satisfactory account of British strategy during the American Revolutionary War and I think I'd find it fascinating.

    It was a well planned conventional strategy. Punch through the middle and then swing north to take Boston

    There were a number of occasions where the Americans were very very lucky. Classic black swan

    Yes, and the detail of that - available to read about - has always been very superficial.

    I'd like to really get into the weeds of it and understand if it was possible with the troops and resources the British had available.

    There are only about 3-4 serious books I can think about that write about it from a British perspective.
  • First time I became aware of the existence of David Butler in early 1990s, when I purchased a copy of "The General Election of 1964" at a Friends of Seattle Public Library book sale (it was library discard).

    Thirty years later have the entire set, from 1945 (when DB was a leading contributor) to 2019.

    Check out link below for example of Sir David's election-night analysis:
    1955 General Election (BBC)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jl8OeeLZCuE

    Ironic that Butler gets right and left mixed up in the first few minutes, when introducing the team on his "right".
  • Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    We will if it goes down in flames, but if you are right it will be dismissed as a lucky guess - 'pigs and truffles, old chap'.

    Anyway you need to be a bit pithier if you wish to aspire to the post of Site Anti-Tipster-in-Chief. Roger's celebrated 'No' will never be improved upon, though Leon with his 'surprise on the upside' is a worthy successor.

    Keep trying though. It's good to have ambition.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    DJ41 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT: I read a book on Greek history, a modern work, in which the historian extolled the virtues of 'interpreting' history according to new schools of thought. Such as Marxism.

    Bastardisation and revisionism mean modern works can be as bad or worse as older works for bias.

    Edited extra bit: I also read a Norse myth book (recent) including a section on the historical Ivar the Boneless which suggested his lack of bones was indicative of a more forward thinking Viking sentiment with less reliance on physical prowess. Except Justin Pollard in his biography of Alfred the Great explains the nickname may simply be a mistranslation (I forget of what) which means the author is either deliberately omitting a relevant fact as it's inconvenient to their agenda or they know less than me, the reader, which also does not seem very reassuring.

    Edited extra bit 2: I also stopped watching one history YouTube channel when the chap behind it described sex-determined roles in medieval farming as being due to outdated gender stereotypes. Sure. Because men being twice as strong as women and other biologically caused and observable facts are just *so* 14th century.

    Marxist approaches can be very fruitful in reinterpreting ancient history. It's great knowing Pericles gave this speech and Nicias lost this battle and Socrates had this dialogue, but it is also instructive to know or at least ask where the money was coming from and who was exploiting whom along the way.
    I think from Morris_Dancer's statement it was the ones which are aa bit more than simply thinking about economic issues and systems that would be problematic, as with any approach which involves fitting things into a preconceived ideology.
    Here's a brilliant book by the cleverest man I personally know, and he is expressly marxist and so is his approach in the book:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reciprocity-Ritual-Developing-City-State-Paperbacks/dp/0198150369

    I think the ideological approach can be fruitful. If you start from the hypothesis that some bugger is exploiting some other bugger, as per uncle Karl, and go out looking for oppressive exploitation it can yield useful insights. In my case, and had had the energy to turn this into a book or at least paper, that the ancient Greek world was one fucking great garment sweatshop, the workers being every single woman who wasn't a priestess or a prostitute. They are all spinning or weaving 24/7 in plays and on vases and in Homer.
    Yes, of course it's true that it's the material production relations that define the nature of any fundamentally exploitative society. It's not ideology to recognise that; it's the truth.

    Nothing wrong with the study of surface, though, even through time. It's thinking the surface is the underlying that's ideological (and stupid). As for "yes, 'we' need that way of looking at things and several other ways too", that's super-stupid and can also be amusing - a case of academics admiring their own reflections while carefully avoiding stepping on each other's toes.

    Marxism absolutely does NOT go well with anything that's academic whatsoever. That was part of the original downfall in the 1871-1914 period in Germany with the SPD. (Nice symbol you use here, though, Dura.)
    Well, that's certainly not true. It's extremely useful as a theoretical framework for identifying social and economic trends particularly relating to imbalances built up by the accumulation of wealth in different groups. Heck, I use it for that all the time and I'm no Marxist.

    It just doesn't work as a political philosophy because it essentially assumes people act according to mathematical formulas. And they don't.
    Quite. Who is to say that those Greek women did not derive a great deal of pleasure from their weaving? It is fundamentally flawed to categorise certain tasks as menial and therefore assign those who perform them as the exploited. Olympic athletes are forced to run and jump to the point of exhaustion. A game of golf is chasing a ball around a field trying to direct it into a hole with a small stick. That we don't define those activities as torture is just a question of perception.
    And them slaves had a natural affinity for cotton picking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Kari Lake supporters outside the Maricopa ballot counting center: “We the people are requesting the military to step in and redo our election. It was fake.” 🎥 Reuters

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1591823911356076032

    Latest returns looking positive for her then I assume.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Kari Lake supporters outside the Maricopa ballot counting center: “We the people are requesting the military to step in and redo our election. It was fake.” 🎥 Reuters

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1591823911356076032

    Isn’t that “we the tw@ts” ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    No idea 😂
  • kle4 said:

    Kari Lake supporters outside the Maricopa ballot counting center: “We the people are requesting the military to step in and redo our election. It was fake.” 🎥 Reuters

    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1591823911356076032

    Latest returns looking positive for her then I assume.
    Yup.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    More of this line of questioning for ministers please:

    Zinger from Sophy Ridge to Jeremy Hunt as he prepares to put up pensions by inflation while cutting the pay of public sector workers in real terms.

    "Do nurses have broader shoulders than wealthy retirees on the golf course?"


    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1591714115512569856
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Not good news for the residents of Thurrock.

    "Gareth Davies
    @Gareth_Davies09

    BREAKING: Toucan Energy Holdings 1, the company which owes Thurrock Council £655m, has gone into administration"

    https://twitter.com/Gareth_Davies09/status/1591032321318490113
  • murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    Technically yes but likely to be GOP - CA seats still counting not moving enough in the Ds favour according to Wasserman
  • Heh


    Has anyone yet set up a "Verified" account for "Elon Musk" on the new Twit thingy?

    OR is he hoping folks assume that his REAL postings are actually parodies?

    Quasi-plausible semi-deniability! (Or visa-versa!!)
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    DJ41 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT: I read a book on Greek history, a modern work, in which the historian extolled the virtues of 'interpreting' history according to new schools of thought. Such as Marxism.

    Bastardisation and revisionism mean modern works can be as bad or worse as older works for bias.

    Edited extra bit: I also read a Norse myth book (recent) including a section on the historical Ivar the Boneless which suggested his lack of bones was indicative of a more forward thinking Viking sentiment with less reliance on physical prowess. Except Justin Pollard in his biography of Alfred the Great explains the nickname may simply be a mistranslation (I forget of what) which means the author is either deliberately omitting a relevant fact as it's inconvenient to their agenda or they know less than me, the reader, which also does not seem very reassuring.

    Edited extra bit 2: I also stopped watching one history YouTube channel when the chap behind it described sex-determined roles in medieval farming as being due to outdated gender stereotypes. Sure. Because men being twice as strong as women and other biologically caused and observable facts are just *so* 14th century.

    Marxist approaches can be very fruitful in reinterpreting ancient history. It's great knowing Pericles gave this speech and Nicias lost this battle and Socrates had this dialogue, but it is also instructive to know or at least ask where the money was coming from and who was exploiting whom along the way.
    I think from Morris_Dancer's statement it was the ones which are aa bit more than simply thinking about economic issues and systems that would be problematic, as with any approach which involves fitting things into a preconceived ideology.
    Here's a brilliant book by the cleverest man I personally know, and he is expressly marxist and so is his approach in the book:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reciprocity-Ritual-Developing-City-State-Paperbacks/dp/0198150369

    I think the ideological approach can be fruitful. If you start from the hypothesis that some bugger is exploiting some other bugger, as per uncle Karl, and go out looking for oppressive exploitation it can yield useful insights. In my case, and had had the energy to turn this into a book or at least paper, that the ancient Greek world was one fucking great garment sweatshop, the workers being every single woman who wasn't a priestess or a prostitute. They are all spinning or weaving 24/7 in plays and on vases and in Homer.
    Yes, of course it's true that it's the material production relations that define the nature of any fundamentally exploitative society. It's not ideology to recognise that; it's the truth.

    Nothing wrong with the study of surface, though, even through time. It's thinking the surface is the underlying that's ideological (and stupid). As for "yes, 'we' need that way of looking at things and several other ways too", that's super-stupid and can also be amusing - a case of academics admiring their own reflections while carefully avoiding stepping on each other's toes.

    Marxism absolutely does NOT go well with anything that's academic whatsoever. That was part of the original downfall in the 1871-1914 period in Germany with the SPD. (Nice symbol you use here, though, Dura.)
    Well, that's certainly not true. It's extremely useful as a theoretical framework for identifying social and economic trends particularly relating to imbalances built up by the accumulation of wealth in different groups. Heck, I use it for that all the time and I'm no Marxist.

    It just doesn't work as a political philosophy because it essentially assumes people act according to mathematical formulas. And they don't.
    Quite. Who is to say that those Greek women did not derive a great deal of pleasure from their weaving? It is fundamentally flawed to categorise certain tasks as menial and therefore assign those who perform them as the exploited. Olympic athletes are forced to run and jump to the point of exhaustion. A game of golf is chasing a ball around a field trying to direct it into a hole with a small stick. That we don't define those activities as torture is just a question of perception.
    And them slaves had a natural affinity for cotton picking.
    Surely 'Dem slaves', Ish?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    DJ41 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT: I read a book on Greek history, a modern work, in which the historian extolled the virtues of 'interpreting' history according to new schools of thought. Such as Marxism.

    Bastardisation and revisionism mean modern works can be as bad or worse as older works for bias.

    Edited extra bit: I also read a Norse myth book (recent) including a section on the historical Ivar the Boneless which suggested his lack of bones was indicative of a more forward thinking Viking sentiment with less reliance on physical prowess. Except Justin Pollard in his biography of Alfred the Great explains the nickname may simply be a mistranslation (I forget of what) which means the author is either deliberately omitting a relevant fact as it's inconvenient to their agenda or they know less than me, the reader, which also does not seem very reassuring.

    Edited extra bit 2: I also stopped watching one history YouTube channel when the chap behind it described sex-determined roles in medieval farming as being due to outdated gender stereotypes. Sure. Because men being twice as strong as women and other biologically caused and observable facts are just *so* 14th century.

    Marxist approaches can be very fruitful in reinterpreting ancient history. It's great knowing Pericles gave this speech and Nicias lost this battle and Socrates had this dialogue, but it is also instructive to know or at least ask where the money was coming from and who was exploiting whom along the way.
    I think from Morris_Dancer's statement it was the ones which are aa bit more than simply thinking about economic issues and systems that would be problematic, as with any approach which involves fitting things into a preconceived ideology.
    Here's a brilliant book by the cleverest man I personally know, and he is expressly marxist and so is his approach in the book:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reciprocity-Ritual-Developing-City-State-Paperbacks/dp/0198150369

    I think the ideological approach can be fruitful. If you start from the hypothesis that some bugger is exploiting some other bugger, as per uncle Karl, and go out looking for oppressive exploitation it can yield useful insights. In my case, and had had the energy to turn this into a book or at least paper, that the ancient Greek world was one fucking great garment sweatshop, the workers being every single woman who wasn't a priestess or a prostitute. They are all spinning or weaving 24/7 in plays and on vases and in Homer.
    Yes, of course it's true that it's the material production relations that define the nature of any fundamentally exploitative society. It's not ideology to recognise that; it's the truth.

    Nothing wrong with the study of surface, though, even through time. It's thinking the surface is the underlying that's ideological (and stupid). As for "yes, 'we' need that way of looking at things and several other ways too", that's super-stupid and can also be amusing - a case of academics admiring their own reflections while carefully avoiding stepping on each other's toes.

    Marxism absolutely does NOT go well with anything that's academic whatsoever. That was part of the original downfall in the 1871-1914 period in Germany with the SPD. (Nice symbol you use here, though, Dura.)
    Well, that's certainly not true. It's extremely useful as a theoretical framework for identifying social and economic trends particularly relating to imbalances built up by the accumulation of wealth in different groups. Heck, I use it for that all the time and I'm no Marxist.

    It just doesn't work as a political philosophy because it essentially assumes people act according to mathematical formulas. And they don't.
    Quite. Who is to say that those Greek women did not derive a great deal of pleasure from their weaving? It is fundamentally flawed to categorise certain tasks as menial and therefore assign those who perform them as the exploited. Olympic athletes are forced to run and jump to the point of exhaustion. A game of golf is chasing a ball around a field trying to direct it into a hole with a small stick. That we don't define those activities as torture is just a question of perception.
    And them slaves had a natural affinity for cotton picking.
    Surely 'Dem slaves', Ish?
    Sho' t'ing, Massa Pete.
  • Heh


    Unfortunately she's referring to her divorce settlement as the billionaire actually had no money left.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,700
    Twitter this weekend is like what happens when you get a supply teacher in who has no idea how to control the class.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160
    WillG said:

    Chris said:

    Elon Musk responds to a senator complaining about Twitter Blue:

    @SenMarkey
    A @washingtonpost reporter was able to create a verified account impersonating me—I’m asking for answers from @elonmusk who is putting profits over people and his debt over stopping disinformation. Twitter must explain how this happened and how to prevent it from happening again.


    @elonmusk
    Perhaps it is because your real account sounds like a parody?


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591813228119855104

    Is that an Elon Musk parody account, or is Elon Musk beyond parody?
    These websites need to decide if they are publishers or platforms. If they are publishers, they should be liable for information published on them. If they are platforms, they should be regulated as public utilities once they get above a certain size.
    It's not that simple.

    Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments.

    And, ultimately, as a publisher, that's what you'd have to do.

    Which means that everyone is a platform.

    Which brings us to point two: platforms work because they surface stuff that keeps people coming back. It's why Netflix, Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok, etc. spend gazillions of dollars trying to optimize algorithms so you see stuff that keeps you coming back.

    If they are platforms, then do they have the right to act in their own economic best interests by working on algorithms to ensure you see stuff that will keep you coming back?

    That seems pretty fucking crazy: if lots of people come onto your platform, you're no longer allowed to run the service for shareholders, by algorithmically curating content.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    Heh


    What's the difference between Elon Musk and the Twitter account of Melania Trump:

    One made the verified tick a joke
    The other made a very snide dick joke.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    Looks like the GOP will scrape over the line . There’s still a very narrow path for the Dems but this relies on the late vote count in California becoming a lot more blue . Of more interest purely from a pass the popcorn and watch the drama unfold perspective is the governors race in Arizona .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Heh


    His brain or his dick?
  • nico679 said:

    murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    Looks like the GOP will scrape over the line . There’s still a very narrow path for the Dems but this relies on the late vote count in California becoming a lot more blue . Of more interest purely from a pass the popcorn and watch the drama unfold perspective is the governors race in Arizona .
    Never thought I would be so pleased to see a Lake dry up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160

    murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    Technically yes but likely to be GOP - CA seats still counting not moving enough in the Ds favour according to Wasserman
    I think the Republicans get to 220.

    With that said... That's still wafer thin. One person sick, or a special election, or whatever, and the Republicans could easily lose their majority.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    nico679 said:

    murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    Looks like the GOP will scrape over the line . There’s still a very narrow path for the Dems but this relies on the late vote count in California becoming a lot more blue . Of more interest purely from a pass the popcorn and watch the drama unfold perspective is the governors race in Arizona .
    Never thought I would be so pleased to see a Lake dry up.
    If only she would. She seems to be in full spate at the moment, and nearly as polluted as the average Essex beach.
  • murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    I've just gone through those outstanding. It's looking much firmer for the Republicans now. They already have 211 seats. I get them to 218 seats minimum with the following seven:

    HD6 Arizona - 0.4% GOP lead; 91% counted
    HD3 California - 6% GOP lead; 51% counted
    HD27 California - 10.8% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD45 California - 7.4% GOP lead;63% counted
    HD3 Colorado - 0.4% GOP lead; 99% counted
    HD22 New York - 1.5% GOP lead; 94% counted
    HD5 Oregon - 2.3% GOP lead; 93% counted

    In addition, there are these three very much still in play, and they could get to 221 if they snatch them all. I can't see why they won't get HD22:

    HD22 California - 5% GOP lead; 39% counted
    HD41 California - 1.4% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD13 California - absolute knife edge (GOP 84 votes ahead!); 46% counted

    If I had to guess right now it's heading to 220 GOP/ 215 Dems. I think the 2/1 for the Republicans in the 220-229 seat band is value, so I've stuck £20 on.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    rcs1000 said:

    murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    Technically yes but likely to be GOP - CA seats still counting not moving enough in the Ds favour according to Wasserman
    I think the Republicans get to 220.

    With that said... That's still wafer thin. One person sick, or a special election, or whatever, and the Republicans could easily lose their majority.
    If Representatives were required to be sane, they'd be buggered anyway judging by some of the new mob's comments.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Chris said:

    Elon Musk responds to a senator complaining about Twitter Blue:

    @SenMarkey
    A @washingtonpost reporter was able to create a verified account impersonating me—I’m asking for answers from @elonmusk who is putting profits over people and his debt over stopping disinformation. Twitter must explain how this happened and how to prevent it from happening again.


    @elonmusk
    Perhaps it is because your real account sounds like a parody?


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591813228119855104

    Is that an Elon Musk parody account, or is Elon Musk beyond parody?
    These websites need to decide if they are publishers or platforms. If they are publishers, they should be liable for information published on them. If they are platforms, they should be regulated as public utilities once they get above a certain size.
    It's not that simple.

    Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments.

    And, ultimately, as a publisher, that's what you'd have to do.

    Which means that everyone is a platform.

    Which brings us to point two: platforms work because they surface stuff that keeps people coming back. It's why Netflix, Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok, etc. spend gazillions of dollars trying to optimize algorithms so you see stuff that keeps you coming back.

    If they are platforms, then do they have the right to act in their own economic best interests by working on algorithms to ensure you see stuff that will keep you coming back?

    That seems pretty fucking crazy: if lots of people come onto your platform, you're no longer allowed to run the service for shareholders, by algorithmically curating content.
    "Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments."

    AI says Hi! ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Chris said:

    Elon Musk responds to a senator complaining about Twitter Blue:

    @SenMarkey
    A @washingtonpost reporter was able to create a verified account impersonating me—I’m asking for answers from @elonmusk who is putting profits over people and his debt over stopping disinformation. Twitter must explain how this happened and how to prevent it from happening again.


    @elonmusk
    Perhaps it is because your real account sounds like a parody?


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591813228119855104

    Is that an Elon Musk parody account, or is Elon Musk beyond parody?
    These websites need to decide if they are publishers or platforms. If they are publishers, they should be liable for information published on them. If they are platforms, they should be regulated as public utilities once they get above a certain size.
    It's not that simple.

    Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments.

    And, ultimately, as a publisher, that's what you'd have to do.

    Which means that everyone is a platform.

    Which brings us to point two: platforms work because they surface stuff that keeps people coming back. It's why Netflix, Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok, etc. spend gazillions of dollars trying to optimize algorithms so you see stuff that keeps you coming back.

    If they are platforms, then do they have the right to act in their own economic best interests by working on algorithms to ensure you see stuff that will keep you coming back?

    That seems pretty fucking crazy: if lots of people come onto your platform, you're no longer allowed to run the service for shareholders, by algorithmically curating content.
    Although that’s not entirely the case for Twitter.
    The stuff I’m interested in is from the people I follow - and the people they follow. Optimising the algo really isn’t particularly important in that respect.
  • murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    I've just gone through those outstanding. It's looking much firmer for the Republicans now. They already have 211 seats. I get them to 218 seats minimum with the following seven:

    HD6 Arizona - 0.4% GOP lead; 91% counted
    HD3 California - 6% GOP lead; 51% counted
    HD27 California - 10.8% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD45 California - 7.4% GOP lead;63% counted
    HD3 Colorado - 0.4% GOP lead; 99% counted
    HD22 New York - 1.5% GOP lead; 94% counted
    HD5 Oregon - 2.3% GOP lead; 93% counted

    In addition, there are these three very much still in play, and they could get to 221 if they snatch them all. I can't see why they won't get HD22:

    HD22 California - 5% GOP lead; 39% counted
    HD41 California - 1.4% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD13 California - absolute knife edge (GOP 84 votes ahead!); 46% counted

    If I had to guess right now it's heading to 220 GOP/ 215 Dems. I think the 2/1 for the Republicans in the 220-229 seat band is value, so I've stuck £20 on.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false
    Wasserman thinks it's getting harder for the Democrats to take HD 27 / 41 / 45 given the latest trends so thatr backs that up.

    I think HD5 has been called - https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/11/republican-lori-chavez-deremer-wins-oregons-5th-district-seat-in-congress-flipping-longtime-democratic-seat-red.html

    I would also be looking at HD1 in Arizona - mainly Maricopa, very small Dem lead and with (apparently) more-R leaning votes to come.

    Re AZ Governor's race, still on a knife edge - last drop was in a Blue area but percentage was decent enough for Lake - https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591854972916105219
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    DJ41 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FPT: I read a book on Greek history, a modern work, in which the historian extolled the virtues of 'interpreting' history according to new schools of thought. Such as Marxism.

    Bastardisation and revisionism mean modern works can be as bad or worse as older works for bias.

    Edited extra bit: I also read a Norse myth book (recent) including a section on the historical Ivar the Boneless which suggested his lack of bones was indicative of a more forward thinking Viking sentiment with less reliance on physical prowess. Except Justin Pollard in his biography of Alfred the Great explains the nickname may simply be a mistranslation (I forget of what) which means the author is either deliberately omitting a relevant fact as it's inconvenient to their agenda or they know less than me, the reader, which also does not seem very reassuring.

    Edited extra bit 2: I also stopped watching one history YouTube channel when the chap behind it described sex-determined roles in medieval farming as being due to outdated gender stereotypes. Sure. Because men being twice as strong as women and other biologically caused and observable facts are just *so* 14th century.

    Marxist approaches can be very fruitful in reinterpreting ancient history. It's great knowing Pericles gave this speech and Nicias lost this battle and Socrates had this dialogue, but it is also instructive to know or at least ask where the money was coming from and who was exploiting whom along the way.
    I think from Morris_Dancer's statement it was the ones which are aa bit more than simply thinking about economic issues and systems that would be problematic, as with any approach which involves fitting things into a preconceived ideology.
    Here's a brilliant book by the cleverest man I personally know, and he is expressly marxist and so is his approach in the book:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reciprocity-Ritual-Developing-City-State-Paperbacks/dp/0198150369

    I think the ideological approach can be fruitful. If you start from the hypothesis that some bugger is exploiting some other bugger, as per uncle Karl, and go out looking for oppressive exploitation it can yield useful insights. In my case, and had had the energy to turn this into a book or at least paper, that the ancient Greek world was one fucking great garment sweatshop, the workers being every single woman who wasn't a priestess or a prostitute. They are all spinning or weaving 24/7 in plays and on vases and in Homer.
    Yes, of course it's true that it's the material production relations that define the nature of any fundamentally exploitative society. It's not ideology to recognise that; it's the truth.

    Nothing wrong with the study of surface, though, even through time. It's thinking the surface is the underlying that's ideological (and stupid). As for "yes, 'we' need that way of looking at things and several other ways too", that's super-stupid and can also be amusing - a case of academics admiring their own reflections while carefully avoiding stepping on each other's toes.

    Marxism absolutely does NOT go well with anything that's academic whatsoever. That was part of the original downfall in the 1871-1914 period in Germany with the SPD. (Nice symbol you use here, though, Dura.)
    Well, that's certainly not true. It's extremely useful as a theoretical framework for identifying social and economic trends particularly relating to imbalances built up by the accumulation of wealth in different groups. Heck, I use it for that all the time and I'm no Marxist.

    It just doesn't work as a political philosophy because it essentially assumes people act according to mathematical formulas. And they don't.
    Quite. Who is to say that those Greek women did not derive a great deal of pleasure from their weaving? It is fundamentally flawed to categorise certain tasks as menial and therefore assign those who perform them as the exploited. Olympic athletes are forced to run and jump to the point of exhaustion. A game of golf is chasing a ball around a field trying to direct it into a hole with a small stick. That we don't define those activities as torture is just a question of perception.
    And them slaves had a natural affinity for cotton picking.
    Surely 'Dem slaves', Ish?
    Sho' t'ing, Massa Pete.
    On a serious note, it is worth looking at the levels of compulsion and choice in each segment of previous societies.

    Choice of action seems to have been very limited in most - zero for slaves, obviously, but very few in Ancient Athens would have had much choice in life.

    How that lack of choice was enforced by the society is worth looking at - social pressure among non-slaves seems to have been the main mechanism.
  • I guess the key implication of that analysis is that the 1.2 price available for the GOP taking the House should now be down to 1.05/1.06.

    If you look at the seats I've posted upthread to *not* get to 218 seats.

    Something really weird would need to happen in HD3/HD27/H45 in California, where they've already counted over half the votes and the Republicans have whopping leads, or HD6 in Arizona would need to flip with a surge of Dem ballots in the final few votes.

    Given their demographics that's very unlikely.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Tres said:

    Twitter this weekend is like what happens when you get a supply teacher in who has no idea how to control the class.

    Probably just me but I haven’t seen anything different. Perhaps the people I follow are the reason?
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited November 2022
    FPT:


    This is a smart idea. Better than Royal Mail's barcoded stamps.
    https://www.anpost.com/Post-Parcels/Sending/Digital-Stamp

    And to think that only a few years ago the ROI couldn't get it together to operate a postcode system outside of Dublin.

    The French postal company La Poste can even write your letter for you: "Vous souhaitez rédiger une lettre sur un sujet en particulier mais vous en êtes en panne d’inspiration ? Découvrez nos modèles de lettres soigneusement rédigés qui pourront vous donner un coup de pouce pour démarrer votre écrit." ("You want to write a letter on a given subject but you are out of inspiration? Discover our carefully written sample letters that can give you a boost to start your writing.")

    Next up, countries will probably start marginalising sending emails using proper email programs rather than "apps".

    Already there are many people who haven't got a clue how to attach a document to an email, but boy, can they put one on the cloud.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    ydoethur said:

    nico679 said:

    murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    Looks like the GOP will scrape over the line . There’s still a very narrow path for the Dems but this relies on the late vote count in California becoming a lot more blue . Of more interest purely from a pass the popcorn and watch the drama unfold perspective is the governors race in Arizona .
    Never thought I would be so pleased to see a Lake dry up.
    If only she would. She seems to be in full spate at the moment, and nearly as polluted as the average Essex beach.
    Trump, if they fell out, would call her Kari Puddle.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    Sunday evening, so another trip to a pub to digest archetypal autumn Sunday afternoon pub music. Sadly not forthcoming at the otherwise very nice Fat Walrus, they were playing 2020s chart hits. So I am playing my own normcore tracks back at home: a bit of Keane.

    I’m reflecting that we are living through one of those more frightening epochs. I wonder, given the comments this morning on how boring PB has become with well meaning but normie remoaner types like me self-censoring, whether we like to get more extreme in our online debating the duller the actual news is?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    TimS said:

    Sunday evening, so another trip to a pub to digest archetypal autumn Sunday afternoon pub music. Sadly not forthcoming at the otherwise very nice Fat Walrus, they were playing 2020s chart hits. So I am playing my own normcore tracks back at home: a bit of Keane.

    I’m reflecting that we are living through one of those more frightening epochs. I wonder, given the comments this morning on how boring PB has become with well meaning but normie remoaner types like me self-censoring, whether we like to get more extreme in our online debating the duller the actual news is?

    The problem I see is that our politicians have so little room for maneuver, as Truss so conclusively proved. Politics and policies barely come into it. They are all trying to thread a needle and the target is getting smaller and smaller. Problems are intractable and frustrating, it must be miserable. If they weren't such a bunch of shysters on all sides you would feel sorry for them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    TimS said:

    Sunday evening, so another trip to a pub to digest archetypal autumn Sunday afternoon pub music. Sadly not forthcoming at the otherwise very nice Fat Walrus, they were playing 2020s chart hits. So I am playing my own normcore tracks back at home: a bit of Keane.

    I’m reflecting that we are living through one of those more frightening epochs. I wonder, given the comments this morning on how boring PB has become with well meaning but normie remoaner types like me self-censoring, whether we like to get more extreme in our online debating the duller the actual news is?

    Personally, the world feels a tiny bit less frightening this weekend following the US electorate slap in the face for Trump. Putin must be annoyed about that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    edited November 2022
    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)
  • murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    I've just gone through those outstanding. It's looking much firmer for the Republicans now. They already have 211 seats. I get them to 218 seats minimum with the following seven:

    HD6 Arizona - 0.4% GOP lead; 91% counted
    HD3 California - 6% GOP lead; 51% counted
    HD27 California - 10.8% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD45 California - 7.4% GOP lead;63% counted
    HD3 Colorado - 0.4% GOP lead; 99% counted
    HD22 New York - 1.5% GOP lead; 94% counted
    HD5 Oregon - 2.3% GOP lead; 93% counted

    In addition, there are these three very much still in play, and they could get to 221 if they snatch them all. I can't see why they won't get HD22:

    HD22 California - 5% GOP lead; 39% counted
    HD41 California - 1.4% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD13 California - absolute knife edge (GOP 84 votes ahead!); 46% counted

    If I had to guess right now it's heading to 220 GOP/ 215 Dems. I think the 2/1 for the Republicans in the 220-229 seat band is value, so I've stuck £20 on.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false
    Wasserman thinks it's getting harder for the Democrats to take HD 27 / 41 / 45 given the latest trends so thatr backs that up.

    I think HD5 has been called - https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/11/republican-lori-chavez-deremer-wins-oregons-5th-district-seat-in-congress-flipping-longtime-democratic-seat-red.html

    I would also be looking at HD1 in Arizona - mainly Maricopa, very small Dem lead and with (apparently) more-R leaning votes to come.

    Re AZ Governor's race, still on a knife edge - last drop was in a Blue area but percentage was decent enough for Lake - https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591854972916105219
    HD1 in Arizona is 90% counted and the Dems have a 2,500+ vote lead.

    Struggle to see that being overtaken unless there's a big dump of rural Republican voters left.

    One caveat: I'm assuming CNN's estimates of the total number of votes counted is accurate and there are no "undiscovered" piles of mail-ins still to come.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Verstappen is a nasty piece of work
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Chris said:

    Elon Musk responds to a senator complaining about Twitter Blue:

    @SenMarkey
    A @washingtonpost reporter was able to create a verified account impersonating me—I’m asking for answers from @elonmusk who is putting profits over people and his debt over stopping disinformation. Twitter must explain how this happened and how to prevent it from happening again.


    @elonmusk
    Perhaps it is because your real account sounds like a parody?


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591813228119855104

    Is that an Elon Musk parody account, or is Elon Musk beyond parody?
    These websites need to decide if they are publishers or platforms. If they are publishers, they should be liable for information published on them. If they are platforms, they should be regulated as public utilities once they get above a certain size.
    It's not that simple.

    Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments.

    And, ultimately, as a publisher, that's what you'd have to do.

    Which means that everyone is a platform.

    Which brings us to point two: platforms work because they surface stuff that keeps people coming back. It's why Netflix, Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok, etc. spend gazillions of dollars trying to optimize algorithms so you see stuff that keeps you coming back.

    If they are platforms, then do they have the right to act in their own economic best interests by working on algorithms to ensure you see stuff that will keep you coming back?

    That seems pretty fucking crazy: if lots of people come onto your platform, you're no longer allowed to run the service for shareholders, by algorithmically curating content.
    "Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments."

    AI says Hi! ?
    If AI can understand libel can we make a few lawyers redundant?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Chris said:

    Elon Musk responds to a senator complaining about Twitter Blue:

    @SenMarkey
    A @washingtonpost reporter was able to create a verified account impersonating me—I’m asking for answers from @elonmusk who is putting profits over people and his debt over stopping disinformation. Twitter must explain how this happened and how to prevent it from happening again.


    @elonmusk
    Perhaps it is because your real account sounds like a parody?


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591813228119855104

    Is that an Elon Musk parody account, or is Elon Musk beyond parody?
    These websites need to decide if they are publishers or platforms. If they are publishers, they should be liable for information published on them. If they are platforms, they should be regulated as public utilities once they get above a certain size.
    It's not that simple.

    Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments.

    And, ultimately, as a publisher, that's what you'd have to do.

    Which means that everyone is a platform.

    Which brings us to point two: platforms work because they surface stuff that keeps people coming back. It's why Netflix, Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok, etc. spend gazillions of dollars trying to optimize algorithms so you see stuff that keeps you coming back.

    If they are platforms, then do they have the right to act in their own economic best interests by working on algorithms to ensure you see stuff that will keep you coming back?

    That seems pretty fucking crazy: if lots of people come onto your platform, you're no longer allowed to run the service for shareholders, by algorithmically curating content.
    "Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments."

    AI says Hi! ?
    If AI can understand libel can we make a few lawyers redundant?
    Yes, and inevitably. This is going to happen
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Can't understand why she isn't suggested as a candidate more often tbh.
  • Re OR05, the Oregonian has called the race, but neither AP nor CNN have done so.

    That said, reckon that Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer will indeed win this seat, and serve in US House as 1st Latina Republican from Oregon, and likely along with yet another Willamette Valley Latina, Democrat Andrea Salinas in OR06 (now leading by 4,400 votes).

    Note that just across the Columbia River in Washington State, Latina Republican incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler lost her 2022 primary in WA03, but was avenged when her Trump-endorsed challenger himself lost in the general - to Latina Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

    Clearly, Latinas are emerging as a real force in the evolving politics of the ever-changing Pacific Northwest.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    I've just gone through those outstanding. It's looking much firmer for the Republicans now. They already have 211 seats. I get them to 218 seats minimum with the following seven:

    HD6 Arizona - 0.4% GOP lead; 91% counted
    HD3 California - 6% GOP lead; 51% counted
    HD27 California - 10.8% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD45 California - 7.4% GOP lead;63% counted
    HD3 Colorado - 0.4% GOP lead; 99% counted
    HD22 New York - 1.5% GOP lead; 94% counted
    HD5 Oregon - 2.3% GOP lead; 93% counted

    In addition, there are these three very much still in play, and they could get to 221 if they snatch them all. I can't see why they won't get HD22:

    HD22 California - 5% GOP lead; 39% counted
    HD41 California - 1.4% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD13 California - absolute knife edge (GOP 84 votes ahead!); 46% counted

    If I had to guess right now it's heading to 220 GOP/ 215 Dems. I think the 2/1 for the Republicans in the 220-229 seat band is value, so I've stuck £20 on.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false
    Wasserman thinks it's getting harder for the Democrats to take HD 27 / 41 / 45 given the latest trends so thatr backs that up.

    I think HD5 has been called - https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/11/republican-lori-chavez-deremer-wins-oregons-5th-district-seat-in-congress-flipping-longtime-democratic-seat-red.html

    I would also be looking at HD1 in Arizona - mainly Maricopa, very small Dem lead and with (apparently) more-R leaning votes to come.

    Re AZ Governor's race, still on a knife edge - last drop was in a Blue area but percentage was decent enough for Lake - https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591854972916105219
    HD1 in Arizona is 90% counted and the Dems have a 2,500+ vote lead.

    Struggle to see that being overtaken unless there's a big dump of rural Republican voters left.

    One caveat: I'm assuming CNN's estimates of the total number of votes counted is accurate and there are no "undiscovered" piles of mail-ins still to come.
    HD1 looks set to go to the GOP as the remaining uncounted votes should break more strongly for them . HD 6 which is in Pima county has a better chance for the Dem . One issue though is whether the on the day ballot drop box votes will be sufficiently blue as I think they’re now down to counting those .
  • ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Can't understand why she isn't suggested as a candidate more often tbh.
    May serve her best to NOT peak too early.

    However, your point is VERY well taken. Reckon that we'll be hearing more & more about Gretchen Witmer in coming months.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Another Democrat to watch for the future.

    They Told Him to Change His Name. Now Crowds Are Shouting It.
    Aftab Pureval, the young mayor of Cincinnati, has Democrats reaching for some flattering comparisons.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/11/blue-cities-labs-democratic-stars-00065985

    They have quite an interesting group of forty-somethings coming through.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Can't understand why she isn't suggested as a candidate more often tbh.
    Highlighted the important part.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Can't understand why she isn't suggested as a candidate more often tbh.
    Highlighted the important part.
    Imagine if somehow 2028 were Whitmer vs Haley.

    That would show a country that's come a fair way on gender rights.

    And it isn't impossible.
  • nico679 said:

    murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    I've just gone through those outstanding. It's looking much firmer for the Republicans now. They already have 211 seats. I get them to 218 seats minimum with the following seven:

    HD6 Arizona - 0.4% GOP lead; 91% counted
    HD3 California - 6% GOP lead; 51% counted
    HD27 California - 10.8% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD45 California - 7.4% GOP lead;63% counted
    HD3 Colorado - 0.4% GOP lead; 99% counted
    HD22 New York - 1.5% GOP lead; 94% counted
    HD5 Oregon - 2.3% GOP lead; 93% counted

    In addition, there are these three very much still in play, and they could get to 221 if they snatch them all. I can't see why they won't get HD22:

    HD22 California - 5% GOP lead; 39% counted
    HD41 California - 1.4% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD13 California - absolute knife edge (GOP 84 votes ahead!); 46% counted

    If I had to guess right now it's heading to 220 GOP/ 215 Dems. I think the 2/1 for the Republicans in the 220-229 seat band is value, so I've stuck £20 on.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false
    Wasserman thinks it's getting harder for the Democrats to take HD 27 / 41 / 45 given the latest trends so thatr backs that up.

    I think HD5 has been called - https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/11/republican-lori-chavez-deremer-wins-oregons-5th-district-seat-in-congress-flipping-longtime-democratic-seat-red.html

    I would also be looking at HD1 in Arizona - mainly Maricopa, very small Dem lead and with (apparently) more-R leaning votes to come.

    Re AZ Governor's race, still on a knife edge - last drop was in a Blue area but percentage was decent enough for Lake - https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591854972916105219
    HD1 in Arizona is 90% counted and the Dems have a 2,500+ vote lead.

    Struggle to see that being overtaken unless there's a big dump of rural Republican voters left.

    One caveat: I'm assuming CNN's estimates of the total number of votes counted is accurate and there are no "undiscovered" piles of mail-ins still to come.
    HD1 looks set to go to the GOP as the remaining uncounted votes should break more strongly for them . HD 6 which is in Pima county has a better chance for the Dem . One issue though is whether the on the day ballot drop box votes will be sufficiently blue as I think they’re now down to counting those .
    I've been watching HD6 closely and I haven't seen any change in the trend in votes as Pima County has been progressively counted.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited November 2022
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Not a bad call at all. If Biden goes (which I think he will) we could well see someone like Whitmer come through from the back of the pack. Don't see Harris getting it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited November 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Another Democrat to watch for the future.

    They Told Him to Change His Name. Now Crowds Are Shouting It.
    Aftab Pureval, the young mayor of Cincinnati, has Democrats reaching for some flattering comparisons.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/11/blue-cities-labs-democratic-stars-00065985

    They have quite an interesting group of forty-somethings coming through.

    Glad you posted that!

    Very interesting read about a seriously interesting guy. Reporter was especially impressed by how this progressive Democratic mayor got a quasi-drunken crowd of serious Cincinnati Bengals football fans - many clearly NOT prog Dems - to chant "Aftab! Aftab!' at recent pre-game rally.

    Note this is in many ways quintessential US media political puff piece, based on tried & true formula of IDing a hot political prospect, following them around for a few days watching them do their stuff, then writing it up as the Next Big Thing.

    Hard to tell IF Aftab Pureval will make it into THAT league.

    BUT must say that I got pretty excited reading this feature article. Similar to how I got excited when reading about Barack Obama in early stages of his US Senate campaign in 2004.

    Addendum - AFTAB! AFTAB!
  • murali_s said:

    What's the latest on the House results. Still knife-edge?

    I've just gone through those outstanding. It's looking much firmer for the Republicans now. They already have 211 seats. I get them to 218 seats minimum with the following seven:

    HD6 Arizona - 0.4% GOP lead; 91% counted
    HD3 California - 6% GOP lead; 51% counted
    HD27 California - 10.8% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD45 California - 7.4% GOP lead;63% counted
    HD3 Colorado - 0.4% GOP lead; 99% counted
    HD22 New York - 1.5% GOP lead; 94% counted
    HD5 Oregon - 2.3% GOP lead; 93% counted

    In addition, there are these three very much still in play, and they could get to 221 if they snatch them all. I can't see why they won't get HD22:

    HD22 California - 5% GOP lead; 39% counted
    HD41 California - 1.4% GOP lead; 53% counted
    HD13 California - absolute knife edge (GOP 84 votes ahead!); 46% counted

    If I had to guess right now it's heading to 220 GOP/ 215 Dems. I think the 2/1 for the Republicans in the 220-229 seat band is value, so I've stuck £20 on.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false
    Wasserman thinks it's getting harder for the Democrats to take HD 27 / 41 / 45 given the latest trends so thatr backs that up.

    I think HD5 has been called - https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/11/republican-lori-chavez-deremer-wins-oregons-5th-district-seat-in-congress-flipping-longtime-democratic-seat-red.html

    I would also be looking at HD1 in Arizona - mainly Maricopa, very small Dem lead and with (apparently) more-R leaning votes to come.

    Re AZ Governor's race, still on a knife edge - last drop was in a Blue area but percentage was decent enough for Lake - https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591854972916105219
    HD1 in Arizona is 90% counted and the Dems have a 2,500+ vote lead.

    Struggle to see that being overtaken unless there's a big dump of rural Republican voters left.

    One caveat: I'm assuming CNN's estimates of the total number of votes counted is accurate and there are no "undiscovered" piles of mail-ins still to come.
    Don't think so. Was basing the assessment more on the view that later counted votes break for the Rs.
  • OllyT said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Not a bad call at all. If Biden goes (which I think he will) we could well see someone like Whitmer come through from the back of the pack. Don't see Harris getting it.
    Last time I checked Harris wasn't very popular, and was basically window dressing.

    Still the case?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Nigelb said:

    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.

    And in the meantime, the less popular ex worlds-richest-man, Jeff Bezos, just gave Dolly Parton $100 million to give to charities of her choice.

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/dolly-parton-receives-100-million-award-jeff-bezos-2022-11-13/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Exclusive: a leaked a people’s survey from Dominic Raab’s private office in 2019- when he was foreign secretary- showed that 40% of those who responded said they’d been bullied or harassed and 75% said they’d seen bullying or people being treated unfairly at work 👇 https://twitter.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1591841019657875456
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    Verstappen is a nasty piece of work

    You think??
  • Nigelb said:

    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.

    Elon Musk has turned himself into an almost perfect political kicking bag for Democratic politicos.

    ESPECIALLY Dem US Senators who retain- thanks to small 11th hour boost from EM - their majority AND clout.
  • It never ceases to amaze me how silly some American names are.

    And why do all Republican women look like that? Sarah Palin, Lauren Boebert, Tudor Dixon..

    All brown hair, brown eyes, orange skin, luminous teeth and glasses. Erugh.
  • Nigelb said:

    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.

    And in the meantime, the less popular ex worlds-richest-man, Jeff Bezos, just gave Dolly Parton $100 million to give to charities of her choice.

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/dolly-parton-receives-100-million-award-jeff-bezos-2022-11-13/
    She's FAR better steward for the moolah than HE'll ever be.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,792
    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    As someone who has very little understanding of sport - and even less cricket - what is 'T20'? All I know of cricket it people hitting a ball with a stick and there is a 'six' or a 'four' - for ignorance reference.
  • Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
  • OllyT said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Not a bad call at all. If Biden goes (which I think he will) we could well see someone like Whitmer come through from the back of the pack. Don't see Harris getting it.
    Last time I checked Harris wasn't very popular, and was basically window dressing.

    Still the case?
    More big nothing than window dressing. NOT an adornment to the administration. Just Senate tie-breaker.

    Which ain't chopped liver. But also not beyond normal bounds for typical less-than-meets-the-eye Veep.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    The USA didn't have much of an overseas empire.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Nigelb said:

    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.

    And in the meantime, the less popular ex worlds-richest-man, Jeff Bezos, just gave Dolly Parton $100 million to give to charities of her choice.

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/dolly-parton-receives-100-million-award-jeff-bezos-2022-11-13/
    She's FAR better steward for the moolah than HE'll ever be.
    Whilst Musk is shitposting and potentially losing billions in stoopid and unnecessary buyouts, Bezos is giving money that makes a difference.

    Both men want to create civilisations in space. If you were to live on a space outpost run by Musk or Bezos, which would you prefer?

    In my case, ideally neither. But if it was a forced choice, Bezos every time. He won't decide to cut off your oxygen because he's ad a spat with his latest girlfriend, or impregnate random employees.
  • Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Has anyone heard of Nat Turner Rebellion?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQkXQtFHWJE
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Chris said:

    Elon Musk responds to a senator complaining about Twitter Blue:

    @SenMarkey
    A @washingtonpost reporter was able to create a verified account impersonating me—I’m asking for answers from @elonmusk who is putting profits over people and his debt over stopping disinformation. Twitter must explain how this happened and how to prevent it from happening again.


    @elonmusk
    Perhaps it is because your real account sounds like a parody?


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591813228119855104

    Is that an Elon Musk parody account, or is Elon Musk beyond parody?
    These websites need to decide if they are publishers or platforms. If they are publishers, they should be liable for information published on them. If they are platforms, they should be regulated as public utilities once they get above a certain size.
    It's not that simple.

    Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments.

    And, ultimately, as a publisher, that's what you'd have to do.

    Which means that everyone is a platform.

    Which brings us to point two: platforms work because they surface stuff that keeps people coming back. It's why Netflix, Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok, etc. spend gazillions of dollars trying to optimize algorithms so you see stuff that keeps you coming back.

    If they are platforms, then do they have the right to act in their own economic best interests by working on algorithms to ensure you see stuff that will keep you coming back?

    That seems pretty fucking crazy: if lots of people come onto your platform, you're no longer allowed to run the service for shareholders, by algorithmically curating content.
    "Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments."

    AI says Hi! ?
    If you are going to be *responsible* for what is posted, you probably aren't going to want to rely on AI.
  • Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
    Addendum - also note the huge popularity of American baseball in Japan and (Hispanic) Caribbean, most notably Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Venezuela.

    Latinos and to lesser extent Japanese are the present AND future or Major League Baseball in USA.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    OllyT said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Not a bad call at all. If Biden goes (which I think he will) we could well see someone like Whitmer come through from the back of the pack. Don't see Harris getting it.
    There does seem room for the Biden candidate, if he is not there. Apparetly Whitmer has 'showed support' for Biden today, so presumably would be well set.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    The USA didn't have much of an overseas empire.
    It's cultural power may well be more powerful than ours ever was though.

    Baseball seems to have a pretty decent following around the globe, and Basketball in a few places.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    As someone who has very little understanding of sport - and even less cricket - what is 'T20'? All I know of cricket it people hitting a ball with a stick and there is a 'six' or a 'four' - for ignorance reference.
    A short format of the game, lasts around 3 hours, rather than 7 for one day cricket and 5 days for test matches.

    I’ve played it since the 80’s when our village side played midweek evening matches. It took off about 20 years ago and has spread through the cricket work with huge tournaments that recruit multinational teams of star players (which has led to a much better atmosphere and sportsmanship around the world in international cricket as the players mix so much more than before).
    The short nature of the game makes it ideal for evenings under floodlights and is attractive to time poor people.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    Andy_JS said:

    Not good news for the residents of Thurrock.

    "Gareth Davies
    @Gareth_Davies09

    BREAKING: Toucan Energy Holdings 1, the company which owes Thurrock Council £655m, has gone into administration"

    https://twitter.com/Gareth_Davies09/status/1591032321318490113

    Is that a Conservative administration, by any chance?
  • WillG said:

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    The USA didn't have much of an overseas empire.
    Twenty20 started here in England in 2002. And rugby even got across to the French and Italians.

    Something more to it than that.
  • Nigelb said:

    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.

    And in the meantime, the less popular ex worlds-richest-man, Jeff Bezos, just gave Dolly Parton $100 million to give to charities of her choice.

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/dolly-parton-receives-100-million-award-jeff-bezos-2022-11-13/
    She's FAR better steward for the moolah than HE'll ever be.
    Whilst Musk is shitposting and potentially losing billions in stoopid and unnecessary buyouts, Bezos is giving money that makes a difference.

    Both men want to create civilisations in space. If you were to live on a space outpost run by Musk or Bezos, which would you prefer?

    In my case, ideally neither. But if it was a forced choice, Bezos every time. He won't decide to cut off your oxygen because he's ad a spat with his latest girlfriend, or impregnate random employees.
    Still prefer Dolly Parton in this respect to Jeff Bezos.

    And speaking of women & spats, believe that JB's ex has a way better track record as philanthropist?

    Similar to Bill Gates (remember him?) and HIS ex?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
    But that is to see US teams. How many turn up to Munich Munchers against Bremen Dockers in the GFL?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    As someone who has very little understanding of sport - and even less cricket - what is 'T20'? All I know of cricket it people hitting a ball with a stick and there is a 'six' or a 'four' - for ignorance reference.
    This video may help - whilst designed to explain the game to baseball fans, it goes over the basics, including the formats.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWpbtLIxYBk&list=FLg5SdxeHca5JpoZ1j9-RpJg&index=5

    But, really, all you need to know is T20 is cricket condensed into 2-3 hours so it is similar to a lot of other team sports in length.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    DavidL said:

    Verstappen is a nasty piece of work

    You think??
    If only there had been some signs.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Chris said:

    Elon Musk responds to a senator complaining about Twitter Blue:

    @SenMarkey
    A @washingtonpost reporter was able to create a verified account impersonating me—I’m asking for answers from @elonmusk who is putting profits over people and his debt over stopping disinformation. Twitter must explain how this happened and how to prevent it from happening again.


    @elonmusk
    Perhaps it is because your real account sounds like a parody?


    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591813228119855104

    Is that an Elon Musk parody account, or is Elon Musk beyond parody?
    These websites need to decide if they are publishers or platforms. If they are publishers, they should be liable for information published on them. If they are platforms, they should be regulated as public utilities once they get above a certain size.
    It's not that simple.

    Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments.

    And, ultimately, as a publisher, that's what you'd have to do.

    Which means that everyone is a platform.

    Which brings us to point two: platforms work because they surface stuff that keeps people coming back. It's why Netflix, Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok, etc. spend gazillions of dollars trying to optimize algorithms so you see stuff that keeps you coming back.

    If they are platforms, then do they have the right to act in their own economic best interests by working on algorithms to ensure you see stuff that will keep you coming back?

    That seems pretty fucking crazy: if lots of people come onto your platform, you're no longer allowed to run the service for shareholders, by algorithmically curating content.
    "Firstly, it is not really possible for a website (even one as small as PB) to monitor all comments to ensure that they are nobody is posting stuff that is libelous (or worse). No website could profitably vet all comments."

    AI says Hi! ?
    If AI can understand libel can we make a few lawyers redundant?
    We are in a completely new situation - like when writing, printing, mass media, telecomms etc were first invented. In each case society had to adjust.

    What is not tolerable is that if the BBC, Mail or Grauniad libels person X they can be liable for zillions; but if the same number of readers see an anonymous libellous post on Facetwit (or a post by someone not worth powder and shot) the libelled person has no remedy.

    It means among other things that Facetwit has a commercial advantage over the Mail - it can make billions by salacious libels without accountability.

    It also means that Facetwit has no reason to value truth for its own sake or even for commercial reasons.

    At the moment the Facetwits are saying (1) yes we can make billions by unaccountable libellous lies (2) we can't possibly afford to moderate our content. One side has to go.

  • Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
    But that is to see US teams. How many turn up to Munich Munchers against Bremen Dockers in the GFL?
    Less than 3m? But MY point is, 3m ain't exactly crap!
  • kle4 said:

    OllyT said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Not a bad call at all. If Biden goes (which I think he will) we could well see someone like Whitmer come through from the back of the pack. Don't see Harris getting it.
    There does seem room for the Biden candidate, if he is not there. Apparetly Whitmer has 'showed support' for Biden today, so presumably would be well set.
    A lot of the Democrat strategy has / is been based on the assumption Trump runs in 2024.That will presumably have to change now, or at least get a serious rethink. If DeSantis runs, then I don't think Biden would continue - he'd hand it over to someone younger.

    I think the Democrats know Harris is not good enough and Pete B wouldn't be either. Whitmer could be a decent shout to counter RDS. However, her one Achilles heel vs RDS may be the whole Covid thing - I think RDS would have a field day with some of her actions in MI.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Nigelb said:

    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.

    And in the meantime, the less popular ex worlds-richest-man, Jeff Bezos, just gave Dolly Parton $100 million to give to charities of her choice.

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/dolly-parton-receives-100-million-award-jeff-bezos-2022-11-13/
    She's FAR better steward for the moolah than HE'll ever be.
    Whilst Musk is shitposting and potentially losing billions in stoopid and unnecessary buyouts, Bezos is giving money that makes a difference.

    Both men want to create civilisations in space. If you were to live on a space outpost run by Musk or Bezos, which would you prefer?

    In my case, ideally neither. But if it was a forced choice, Bezos every time. He won't decide to cut off your oxygen because he's ad a spat with his latest girlfriend, or impregnate random employees.
    Still prefer Dolly Parton in this respect to Jeff Bezos.

    And speaking of women & spats, believe that JB's ex has a way better track record as philanthropist?

    Similar to Bill Gates (remember him?) and HIS ex?
    Well, yes. And as he is giving her $100 million to dole out to charities of her choice, perhaps he realises this (he has apparently been doling out money like this since 2001). And yes, MacKenzie Scott has been doing a great job as well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
    But they are all expats

    On my recent flight from Denver to London Heathrow I actually caught the same flight as the entire Denver Broncos team, who were flying over for a "big match" at Wembley. On my left I had a hardcore fan, and on my right I had the PR girl for the whole state, who was also flying out to sell Colorado as an investment opportunity by using NFL

    She was in a state of sunken depression

    Why? Because, as she said "Brits don't give a fuck about American Football." She said she was calling people at big companies and offering them VIP seats at the game and they were turning them down, universally, saying, "No sorry, but you could pop by our office and tell us stuff". She could not believe it. She said in the USA companies would be biting her hand off. She said yes the stadium would be full but nearly everyone would be American

    She actually asked me why we don't care. I had to explain to her that Britain invented all the best sports in the world and American sports are, in comparison, a tiny bit shit, and we are particularly spoiled with great sport in London. Tho I said it in a nicer way, obvs. She was clearly upset

    American Football is unexportable because it is overblown, weird and not very good. Basketball is basically a joke for ten foot tall freaks. Baseball- AIUI - is a wonderful sport, but very complex, and I reckon T20 cricket has got it nailed in terms of batting sports with global appeal. Ice hockey lol
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Nigelb said:

    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.

    And in the meantime, the less popular ex worlds-richest-man, Jeff Bezos, just gave Dolly Parton $100 million to give to charities of her choice.

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/dolly-parton-receives-100-million-award-jeff-bezos-2022-11-13/
    She's FAR better steward for the moolah than HE'll ever be.
    Whilst Musk is shitposting and potentially losing billions in stoopid and unnecessary buyouts, Bezos is giving money that makes a difference.

    Both men want to create civilisations in space. If you were to live on a space outpost run by Musk or Bezos, which would you prefer?

    In my case, ideally neither. But if it was a forced choice, Bezos every time. He won't decide to cut off your oxygen because he's ad a spat with his latest girlfriend, or impregnate random employees.
    Maybe Musk would do better to get you there with his impetuous dreaming and drive, but Bezos would run things less manically (or maniacally) when you got there?

    Bezos seems like your garden variety business tyrant compared to the er, idiosyncracies of Musk.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
    But that is to see US teams. How many turn up to Munich Munchers against Bremen Dockers in the GFL?
    Less than 3m? But MY point is, 3m ain't exactly crap!
    The point is the sport hasn’t really taken off in the way that football has, or cricket or rugby. What other nations have serious American Football leagues?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Nigelb said:

    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.

    Elon Musk has turned himself into an almost perfect political kicking bag for Democratic politicos.

    ESPECIALLY Dem US Senators who retain- thanks to small 11th hour boost from EM - their majority AND clout.

    Nigelb said:

    Markey wasn’t the soft target Musk assumed.

    https://twitter.com/SenMarkey/status/1591827463583453190
    One of your companies is under an FTC consent decree. Auto safety watchdog NHTSA is investigating another for killing people. And you’re spending your time picking fights online. Fix your companies. Or Congress will.

    Elon Musk has turned himself into an almost perfect political kicking bag for Democratic politicos.

    ESPECIALLY Dem US Senators who retain- thanks to small 11th hour boost from EM - their majority AND clout.
    Which will only boost those who believe the Musk hatred is partisan.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    Good post.

    A few ideas: discuss. I’m not sure all/any of them will work but a few ideas I had

    1. maiden over (or even three/four consecutive dots) delivers a wicket (batsman is striked out)

    2. team 1 bats 10 overs, then 20 for team 2, then final 10 overs for team 1 - will reduce luck of toss winning possibly?

    3. Covered stadiums / retractable roofs - so rain can’t stop play (this would obviously take time and would be unevenly distributed)

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    It never ceases to amaze me how silly some American names are.

    And why do all Republican women look like that? Sarah Palin, Lauren Boebert, Tudor Dixon..

    All brown hair, brown eyes, orange skin, luminous teeth and glasses. Erugh.

    Whatever you think of her, Kari Lake is definitely hot. American women with money are polished and sexy
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
    But that is to see US teams. How many turn up to Munich Munchers against Bremen Dockers in the GFL?
    Less than 3m? But MY point is, 3m ain't exactly crap!
    The point is the sport hasn’t really taken off in the way that football has, or cricket or rugby. What other nations have serious American Football leagues?
    American Football just isn't a very good game. And it's hard to get into, due to so many complicated rules. And you need replays to understand what has actually happened each play. The one they really should have exported better is basketball.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    OllyT said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    20h
    Ron DeSantis now has a 7-point lead over Trump along GOP voters nationwide in a 2024 primary matchup.

    Last month, Trump held the 7-point margin.

    Remember my long-standing yet much mocked forecast on here from way back: Neither Biden nor Trumpton will be nominees
    If the Democrat candidate isn't Biden, who will it most likely be?
    My girl Gretchin "The big W" Whitmer.
    Not a bad call at all. If Biden goes (which I think he will) we could well see someone like Whitmer come through from the back of the pack. Don't see Harris getting it.
    There does seem room for the Biden candidate, if he is not there. Apparetly Whitmer has 'showed support' for Biden today, so presumably would be well set.
    A lot of the Democrat strategy has / is been based on the assumption Trump runs in 2024.That will presumably have to change now, or at least get a serious rethink. If DeSantis runs, then I don't think Biden would continue - he'd hand it over to someone younger.

    I think the Democrats know Harris is not good enough and Pete B wouldn't be either. Whitmer could be a decent shout to counter RDS. However, her one Achilles heel vs RDS may be the whole Covid thing - I think RDS would have a field day with some of her actions in MI.
    Perhaps Trump is being clever after all. Constantly talk about running, forcing Biden to think he has to stay in the race too, preventing coalescence around a decent alternative, and then stand down and back DeSantis fully, whilst trousering all the donations he's received as a reward, catching the Dems offguard.

    No, I don't believe it really.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
    But they are all expats

    On my recent flight from Denver to London Heathrow I actually caught the same flight as the entire Denver Broncos team, who were flying over for a "big match" at Wembley. On my left I had a hardcore fan, and on my right I had the PR girl for the whole state, who was also flying out to sell Colorado as an investment opportunity by using NFL

    She was in a state of sunken depression

    Why? Because, as she said "Brits don't give a fuck about American Football." She said she was calling people at big companies and offering them VIP seats at the game and they were turning them down, universally, saying, "No sorry, but you could pop by our office and tell us stuff". She could not believe it. She said in the USA companies would be biting her hand off. She said yes the stadium would be full but nearly everyone would be American

    She actually asked me why we don't care. I had to explain to her that Britain invented all the best sports in the world and American sports are, in comparison, a tiny bit shit, and we are particularly spoiled with great sport in London. Tho I said it in a nicer way, obvs. She was clearly upset

    American Football is unexportable because it is overblown, weird and not very good. Basketball is basically a joke for ten foot tall freaks. Baseball- AIUI - is a wonderful sport, but very complex, and I reckon T20 cricket has got it nailed in terms of batting sports with global appeal. Ice hockey lol
    Ice hockey is incredibly enjoyable to watch. Especially in person. The problem is its very expensive to learn to play unless you live near the Arctic Circle.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
    But they are all expats

    On my recent flight from Denver to London Heathrow I actually caught the same flight as the entire Denver Broncos team, who were flying over for a "big match" at Wembley. On my left I had a hardcore fan, and on my right I had the PR girl for the whole state, who was also flying out to sell Colorado as an investment opportunity by using NFL

    She was in a state of sunken depression

    Why? Because, as she said "Brits don't give a fuck about American Football." She said she was calling people at big companies and offering them VIP seats at the game and they were turning them down, universally, saying, "No sorry, but you could pop by our office and tell us stuff". She could not believe it. She said in the USA companies would be biting her hand off. She said yes the stadium would be full but nearly everyone would be American

    She actually asked me why we don't care. I had to explain to her that Britain invented all the best sports in the world and American sports are, in comparison, a tiny bit shit, and we are particularly spoiled with great sport in London. Tho I said it in a nicer way, obvs. She was clearly upset

    American Football is unexportable because it is overblown, weird and not very good. Basketball is basically a joke for ten foot tall freaks. Baseball- AIUI - is a wonderful sport, but very complex, and I reckon T20 cricket has got it nailed in terms of batting sports with global appeal. Ice hockey lol
    One man's opinion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    I find it fascinating how crap the USA has been in exporting its sport whereas we, well, have been almost universally successful.
    Reportedly 3m people requested tickets to today's NFL game in Munich, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
    But that is to see US teams. How many turn up to Munich Munchers against Bremen Dockers in the GFL?
    Less than 3m? But MY point is, 3m ain't exactly crap!
    The point is the sport hasn’t really taken off in the way that football has, or cricket or rugby. What other nations have serious American Football leagues?
    American Football just isn't a very good game. And it's hard to get into, due to so many complicated rules. And you need replays to understand what has actually happened each play. The one they really should have exported better is basketball.
    As a child I'd watch the highlights show on Channel 4 they used to show on American Football. It seems interesting enough, and I know a few people who are really into it (and americans can't seem to get enough of it, given how huge college football is).

    I don't think it is the sport itself that is the problem, necessarily, just that there isn't much space for it in a crowded field. Though the expenses needed to get really good at it, or casual play preparation probably isn't a help, it isn't like soccer where you only need a ball and you are ready. (Cricket likewise has expensive set up).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Leon said:

    T20 cricket has the potential to be easily the world's biggest sport, after football

    1. It is non-stop compulsive viewing, between competitive teams
    2. It has an ENORMOUS fan base in the subcontinent - 1.6bn people
    3. It is also worldwide, England to Oz to SA to the Windies
    4. It is perfectly aimed at humans who nowadays have less patience with long form of anything
    5. The Asian diaspora will spread it globally
    6. It has a natural glamour, the nightgames, the personalities, plus the easiness of understanding

    Cons:

    It is not a flawless product (the advantage to toss winning teams is an example). It needs to recruit a couple more rich nations to take off? And more

    But I can see it overtaking Basketball and NFL, which remain hard to export for the USA (esp the latter)

    Good post.

    A few ideas: discuss. I’m not sure all/any of them will work but a few ideas I had

    1. maiden over (or even three/four consecutive dots) delivers a wicket (batsman is striked out)

    2. team 1 bats 10 overs, then 20 for team 2, then final 10 overs for team 1 - will reduce luck of toss winning possibly?

    3. Covered stadiums / retractable roofs - so rain can’t stop play (this would obviously take time and would be unevenly distributed)

    1. No, just no. T20 is played by the same rules as test cricket bar fielding restrictions, numbers of overs you can bowl, and tighter on wides. You’ll be suggesting a Max zone for double runs behind the bowler next.
    2. Yes, could be interesting. In standard T20 (I.e. with a home side and an away side) I’d let the away side choose, to stop pitches being prepped to suit.
    I think not usuing used wickets guards against some of the worst issues with the toss.
    3. I’m surprised we’ve not seen this yet, although the issue is worst in the U.K. and NZ. It’s certainly doable, but very costly. I wonder what effects would be on swing etc? Bowlers need some help.
This discussion has been closed.