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Why I’m betting that Trump won’t be the GOP WH2024 nominee – politicalbetting.com
Why I’m betting that Trump won’t be the GOP WH2024 nominee – politicalbetting.com
Next Tuesday Donald Trump is due to make a statement and the speculation is that he will seek to announce his intention to run for the White House again in 2024.
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May be a straw in the wind.
https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1591479674710134786?t=hBFAnF5Cdhl6WNO8A7jtzA&s=19
Nate Cohn is projecting a 216-219 House
Ma présence à Paris le 11 novembre démontre que nous sommes amis, partenaires, alliés, que nous travaillons ensemble très étroitement en raison du retour de la guerre en Europe.
https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/11/12/james-cleverly-tout-le-monde-veut-que-le-conflit-trouve-une-issue-mais-elle-doit-etre-juste-pour-le-peuple-ukrainien_6149550_3210.html
Tuesday's explosion of fire and fury when the Orange One announces he is running again will be one for the ages and scare of so many voters.
Like Boris Johnson, Donald Trump remains a great lay.
WJB was won the Democratic nomination but lost the election in 1896, 1900 and 1908. As an anti-establishment populist, drawing votes mostly from disaffected, declining geographic regions and demographic sectors. Supported by most farmers and many workers, opposed by most business people and better-educated, more-affluent sections of society.
Only campaign where Bryan had an realistic chance of winning was in 1896, in the midst of economic depression, and agitation for "bi-metalism" (use of silver as well as gold standard) as a monetary remedy. Indeed, the then-youngish WJB won the nomination thanks to his electrifying "Cross of Gold" speech to the Democratic Convention:
"You
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Gold_speech
WJB - It is the issue of 1776 over again. Our ancestors, when but three millions in number, had the courage to declare their political independence of every other nation; shall we, their descendants, when we have grown to seventy millions, declare that we are less independent than our forefathers?
No, my friends, that will never be the verdict of our people. Therefore, we care not upon what lines the battle is fought. If they say bimetallism is good, but that we cannot have it until other nations help us, we reply that, instead of having a gold standard because England has, we will restore bimetallism, and then let England have bimetallism because the United States has it. If they dare to come out in the open field and defend the gold standard as a good thing, we will fight them to the uttermost."
Having behind us the producing masses of this nation and the world, supported by the commercial interests, the laboring interests, and the toilers everywhere, we will answer their demand for a gold standard by saying to them: "You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold."
The response of the Convention was - pandemonium.
The crowd raised Bryan to it's shoulders in triumph, as delegates grabbed the standards of a score of state and carried them to join that of Nebraska, WJB's own state, where he was already famed as "the Boy Orator of the River Platte".
Things get very interesting if no candidates gets to 270 electoral college votes and how congress votes to sort out that mess.
Remarkable.
The result is that the map that got used was essentially entirely fair and reasonable.
The criticism is that if the Dems hadn't completely taken the piss, then they would have had a moderately more favourable (i.e. slightly gerrymandered) map, and would probably have ended up not losing the House.
NOT sure I'd put any money down on that basis, but nevertheless.
Trump is a guy who HATES to lose. AND is now in electoral terms at least a three-time loser:
1. 2020 "re"-election
2. 2021 GA double US Senate runoff
3. 2022 midterm elections
Am not sure 45 is gonna want to make it 4.
How in holy hell do the Dems not get 270 then?
470 more likely.
Only New York City and its suburbs make New York a safe Democrat state overall
Of whom Sean Patrick Baloney, soon-to-be ex-US Rep & head of Dee-Trip(e), is the Poster Child of 2022.
That speech makes grammatical and logical sense.
So no comparison at all.
The GOP need to win the Senate as well as the House to have any chance of overturning the EC results too
Of course the upper limit is fuzzy depending on how quickly the immigrants integrate, which is largely a function of education and proximity of their culture of origin.
Districts were torn every which way.
A similar Trump independent campaign in 2024 would take more votes from Republican than from Democratic nominee, whomever the Rs & Ds end up nominating.
As a young boy I watched Inherit The Wind with Spencer Tracy and Fredric March.
Loved the film and the performances, became hooked on it, then my teacher informed it was based on real events, in the days of before the internet I had fun trying to read about the Scopes Monkey Trial.
Always liked WJB even if I disagreed with him on his role in the Scopes Monkey Trial.
Between that film and Gregory Peck in To Kill A Mockingbird had such a profound effect on me.
Trump gets 10%, Biden beats DS by 5 but 'EC maths' and they are even and Trump gets his best result in, i dunno, Alabama and takes it 36, 34, 30, taking their 9 votes and leaving it 268-261 to the other 2
Edit - or Dems flood to Trump in Republican strongholds as a stop De Santis measure if they are running behind
They'd otherwise be walking this. Senate and House.
*Of course. A 269-269 tie is possible too.
In 1968 Humphrey won just 1 southern state, Texas, with Wallace winning 5 southern States and Nixon
the remaining 7.
1968 was the first clear sign the Democrats had lost the South effectively in most Presidential elections going forward.
Though yes Trump would hit the GOP more now the South is a largely Republican region
In the United States, a contingent election is used to elect the president or vice president if no candidate receives a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed. A presidential contingent election is decided by a special vote of the United States House of Representatives, while a vice-presidential contingent election is decided by a vote of the United States Senate.
During a contingent election in the House, each state delegation votes en bloc to choose the president instead of representatives voting individually. Senators, by contrast, cast votes individually for vice president.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election
WJB's role in Scopes trial was part and parcel of his defense of old-time American values and old-school Christianity against the reasons and ravages of modernism and (dare I say it?) wokeism.
BTW, the play and movie "Inherit the Wind" is a total hatchet job where Bryan is concerned. About as reliable as history as Oliver Stone's "JFK".
And possibly at least one very direct 'Trump is a loser and we need to move on from him' candidate, to get smashed.
And DeSantis just throws his hat in the ring without being as direct, but just continually pointing to his result vs Trump fanatics?
Now, I think, voters are learning that populism provides no easy answers. But, they still don't like establishment centrist political figures either.
The savvy political moderate who addresses these concerns with real solutions, and shows voters absolute respect, will inherit the earth.
Can't blame the Republicans for THIS one.
Or will they learn nothing ?
He won’t run as an independent as his ego couldn’t deal with the almost certain defeat. Most likely to spoiler from the sidelines while grifting to the max, IMO.
Essentially the viewpoint of the play/movie re: William Jennings Bryan, is that of better-educated, more prosperous, eastern establishment AND liberal America of the 1920s.
Note that this section of society considered WJB's core supporters to be a bunch of ignorant, mean-spirited, fundamentally stupid hicks, hillbillies and similar bumpkins, in other words the Great Unwashed.
Sound familiar?
Its just not quite as simple as saying the NY has "fair" maps though.
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/angela-rayner-borrowed-5-600-for-cosmetic-surgery-after-shedding-baby-weight-12745228#amp_ct=1668280526700&amp_tf=From %1$s&aoh=16682805225342&referrer=https://www.google.com
His aim would not be to win, purely to say they should have nominated him again. As far as Trump is concerned he now owns the GOP and any candidate who attempts to challenge that must be humiliated
It was ages ago and all. I mean, she mentioned it so its fine for an outlet to make a story, but there's no angle here.
Utterly outrageous she didn't get a Party donor to pay for it.
What's it coming to?
Both as a allegedly quasi-coherent argument AND even more importantly as a campaign tactic.
Wages of 1/6/21.
Media outlets will choose whether to focus on it as of any interest or not.
HYUFD thought it was fertile ground for a political attack (initially that was not clear, but his follow up revealed it).
I should imagine it to be a lengthy list.
I am not interested in what legal things politicians choose to spend their own money on.
Borrowed or not.
You are seriously trying to suggest voters will find the idea the Deputy Leader of Labour, a niche political figure with all respects to her, took a loan for a personal extravagance more than a decade ago, before she was an MP and in much better economic times, to be insufficiently austere? Whilst the PM is close to billionaire status?
Could you lay out the logic for me as to why that would strike a chord? Maybe you could denigrate her intellect again because she left school at 16.
The story is just adding a bit of further detail to her backstory is all.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Norway_attacks
Sweden meanwhile has just given the far right Sweden Democrats 20% of the vote and the balance of power in the Swedish Parliament
But I enjoyed this bit of the Sky piece:
"I had my boob job on my 30th birthday," she told the Financial Times.
as I recall the days when FT people would have no idea what a boob job was.
(Got a decent history of the trial somewhere, to be fair.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_College
Somebody could do a REALLY interesting movie about the Life and Times of William Jennings Bryan. From Illinois farm to Nebraska frontier (sorta) to political fame (if not fortune) to US Secretary of State at start of WWI (until he resigned due to Lusitania Crisis) to Florida Gold Coast booster to tribune (and martyr) for Creationism.
You are true that WJB has never lived (or rather died) down the portrait of him drawn by "Inherit the Wind".
At same time, his "Cross of Gold" speech of 1896 remains as one of the great moments of American political history.
This recording made by WJB of "CoG" twenty-five does NOT have the atmosphere of the 1896 convention, but does convey some idea:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UV2wRCcWJa8