I am not sure that the flipside of reduced unemployment is poor productivity.
If you truly understood why productivity has fallen both before, through and after the recession then you would have a very well paid job awaiting you at the Treasury or Bank of England.
If you had 1000 jobs, 300 low productivity but 150 officially unemployed and off the books in the shadow economy and then the extra 150 was chivied back onto the books (which i approve of btw) then your ratio of low productivity jobs would go from 150/850 (18%) to 300/1000 (30%).
I don't know if that is what is happening but based on some of the areas i used to work it is possible.
It would be easy to test. You'd look for areas with unusually high unemployment next door to areas of high unemployment and see if the higher level area was drifting down to the same level as the lower level area.
Some people don't like good economic news, it doesn't fit with their political agenda. This applies equally to lefties and kipper types.
No, we're just suspicious of over inflated figures and wobbly statistics. I welcome 160K of new jobs with open arms, and so do all of UKIP. Provided that is, that they are proper jobs providing a proper service for a proper wage and not some shelf filling work that will not be needed in a couple of months. It will be interesting to see a proper breakdown - not only if they were in private or public divisions - of the 160K and see what percentage of manufacturing there is besides windmills.
Oh Priti Priti, just join UKIP, this bluster isn't becoming, or convincing
If that's Priti Patel what's she done now?
Andrew Neil asked her what the difference between what UKIP want and what she wants was, and she just ran around in circles without being able to say anything... (although she looked good saying it!)
Obviously in the wrong party
Are you a secret lib dem?
Oh please! I've just had a shower, now I need another one!
So you had the first shower after watching Priti?
Haha , no I'd been for a run that I thought I had done in a good time, but was actually my second worst of the year
Hmm I should go for a run at some point, rather fallen off that wagon. Doubt I could do a 5k in sub 23 minutes that I managed a coupl of years back !
I just did 23:40 for just under 5k...absolute rubbish... strong headwind & uphill finish though, it was like running at Cheltenham!
I've read on here often that a lib dem implosion will hit the tories harder than labour, because of the libs 'ground game' in southern England seats (such as Eastleigh).
They'll need one hell of a ground game to hang onto those puppies now.
I'd be very surprised if that does happen but if it does, it won't just be the Tories with fingers hovering over the Panic button. Labour has to win the locals comfortably if it has a chance for 2015.
Not necessarily. Labour were comprehensively routed at the Locals in 2008 and 2009, yet still hung onto 258 seats at GE 2010.
Losing seats in government happens; it shouldn't be the case in opposition and would point to a widespread softness in the GE VI were it to.
@JackW - A North-West contrast to my Brigg and Goole suggestion earlier - Blackpool North and Cleverleys - Majority of just 5% or so for the sitting Tory, with a reasonable Lib Dem vote to squeeze (13%) and the potential for a strong UKIP performance. Depends on your other seats - might be a bit too similar to (say) Hastings and Rye although at the other end of the country.
@JackW - Also 2 Welsh marginals. Arfon (North Wales Plaid/Labour marginal) and Vale of Glamorgan (Tory/Lab marginal - won by the party with most seats since creation in 1983)
I've read on here often that a lib dem implosion will hit the tories harder than labour, because of the libs 'ground game' in southern England seats (such as Eastleigh).
They'll need one hell of a ground game to hang onto those puppies now.
Taffys - Dave needs the Libs to do well because of Lab/Con marginals not Lib/Con. The LDs have historically split the lefty vote allowing Tories to win seats under FPTP where they actually polled less than the Lab/LD vote combined. That combined lefty vote is now mostly only in the Labour camp - pushing Labour back above Tories in those marginals.
The Lib Dems situation really got alot more dire. I think the chances of Clegg going have become an actual possibility now.
All of the Hancock stuff has been out there for ages, just take a look at Guido. The lib dems should have been on top of this.
You are correct , there have been smears against Hancock and other Portsmouth Lib Dems for many years , people who were not able to defeat them at the ballot box reverted to other means . Les Cummings was found guilty of doing so . A website run by an ex Conservative was shut down . The solution is not to continue smearing but to sort things out in a court of law whether civil or criminal .
Andy - Can you link your spreadsheet with Lib Marginals (To both sides) ?
From memory there are a few Labour targets and then a huge gap to Leeds North West and alot that are out of reach unless the Lib Dems really, really implode ?
In other words, Salmond and the SNP have failed to create a game changer with their White Paper on Independence. And now they are left scrambling around politicking about a debate with David Cameron after originally telling him to butt out of their Indy Referendum.
Was looking on the front page of Channel 4 new's website for anything on Hancock and see this tweet from Hague
"Concerned by latest reports from Bor of #SexualViolence in #SouthSudan crisis. Civilians should be protected"
points Government Minister Hague at the children's commissioner's report on what's happening in the gang-ruled areas of Britain.
"Sexual violence in gang neighbourhoods is 'like that in war zones' with girls as young as 11 being groomed and raped...Warning came following shocking Children's Commissioner report"
So this is the same Mr Hague that told the Scots in Glasgow a few days ago that they had to stay in the union as the full clout and strength of the union was the only way to stop women and children being attacked in war zones this way?? "But we could only do so because we had the full weight of the United Kingdom, its alliances and its first-class diplomatic network behind us".
Edit 1: But we keep being told that the UK will remain the same old UK with all its international rights and treaties even if the Scots leave (all 9%-odd of the population)
Edit 2: we'd really, really like Mr Cameron to discuss this assertion n public with the First Minister (well, the first elected politician below HM the Queen level): not least the fact Mr Hague came here when he doesn't have a vote and should stay out of the debate according to Mr C. Or was Mr H on an unofficial visit?
1. The Yellow Box clearly states the figures I quoted were a "% of GDP".
2. The figures in your video are a subset of Public Sector Net Debt, i.e. they are PSND "excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions".
I am not contesting that 'PSND ex' has risen in both nominal and real terms over the course of this parliament: it is the inevitable consequence of inheriting public finances from Labour which required the government to borrow £1 in every £4 spent. This ratio has already fallen from 1:4 to 1:6 and will fall further in this parliamentary term, but it will take 8-9 years [from 2010] to balance.
What the PSND figures show is that nominal net debt was £2 228 308 million at the end of the 2009/10 fiscal year. At the end of December 2013 this figure was £2 228 315 million, so currently a rise in nominal debt of £7 million over the course of this parliament. A massive real terms fall which accounts for the decline in the GDP ratio.
You must remember the rise in PSND ex, from £828 419 million at the end of the 2009/10 f/y to £1 254 303 million at the end of December 2013 is fully consolidated in the PSND figures.
You not only lose your woggle, TLBS, but you lose your new Cub Scout cap too.
That combined lefty vote is now mostly only in the Labour camp - pushing Labour back above Tories in those marginals.
I understand that but there are also a number of lib/tory marginals. It's often argued that those marginals ARE DIFFERENT because the ground game of the libs there is very strong.
I'm wondering if they are really that different now.
The Lib Dems situation really got alot more dire. I think the chances of Clegg going have become an actual possibility now.
All of the Hancock stuff has been out there for ages, just take a look at Guido. The lib dems should have been on top of this.
You are correct , there have been smears against Hancock and other Portsmouth Lib Dems for many years , people who were not able to defeat them at the ballot box reverted to other means . Les Cummings was found guilty of doing so . A website run by an ex Conservative was shut down . The solution is not to continue smearing but to sort things out in a court of law whether civil or criminal .
You still calling them 'smears' Mark?... I think it's gone beyond that, and that the multiple women in the case deserve better...
This may have already been posted but this is a link to the annual Bill Gates letter where he refutes (very effectively in my view) some of the myths about aid and improving the lives those less fortunate than ourselves. Very well worth reading and certainly inspiring. It would be nice to see some of this used to counter the arguments about overseas aid being 'wasteful'
Over the years he has slowly developed into one of my heroes. It is great to see someone of his stature and influence directly challenging and refuting the Malthusian paradigm of inevitable poverty for the majority of humanity.
tbf, Melissa should probably be your heroine, rather than Bill your hero. It's mainly her doing.
That combined lefty vote is now mostly only in the Labour camp - pushing Labour back above Tories in those marginals.
I understand that but there are also a number of lib/tory marginals. It's often argued that those marginals ARE DIFFERENT because the ground game of the libs there is very strong.
I'm wondering if they are really that different now.
Mr. K: "In a shock decision the European Court of Justice (ECJ) went against its own legal adviser to give the European Securities and Markets Authority the power to ban short selling when it fears for market stability, scrapping the UK’s veto over the rules."
Is this a shock? The EU and ECJ are despicable, unaccountable power-grabbing organisations. The sooner we leave, the better.
The Lib Dems situation really got alot more dire. I think the chances of Clegg going have become an actual possibility now.
All of the Hancock stuff has been out there for ages, just take a look at Guido. The lib dems should have been on top of this.
You are correct , there have been smears against Hancock and other Portsmouth Lib Dems for many years , people who were not able to defeat them at the ballot box reverted to other means . Les Cummings was found guilty of doing so . A website run by an ex Conservative was shut down . The solution is not to continue smearing but to sort things out in a court of law whether civil or criminal .
You still calling them 'smears' Mark?... I think it's gone beyond that, and that the multiple women in the case deserve better...
You would be on firmer ground if you had expressed equal concern re the multiple men involved in a case which is coming to court shortly and where a Conservative MP has been charged .
Indeed we shouldn't be smiling about that: with UKIP working for a Labour government and also to sabotage the EU referendum, the chances of the City being wrecked with the help of the EU are increasing.
Andy - Can you link your spreadsheet with Lib Marginals (To both sides) ?
From memory there are a few Labour targets and then a huge gap to Leeds North West and alot that are out of reach unless the Lib Dems really, really implode ?
I don't have a LD marginals list atm. These are the target lists:
I have not lost anything. It's just two different definitions, and yours is misleading, as you know. But if you choose to spam this site with propaganda, that's up to you. The graph on that video is sourced from The Spectator I think – hardly a left-wing source.
UK car sales 2265k vehicles, UK production 1510k. That difference is about £8 bn on our BoP or 3 car plants.
Not sure your figures are right here, Mr. Brooke. The OBR did a 'blue box' analysis of the impact of the rise in car manufacturing on UK BoP and GDP.
While it broadly made the same general point as you - that an increase in car sales and car manufacturing does not translate to proportional increases in GDP and decreases in the BoP due to the imports it sucks in - the actual outcome was calculated by the OBR at a very small net benefit to both at current sales and manufacturing levels.
I have quoted this passage before but it is worth a second airing:
Car consumption and production
In volume terms, spending on cars in the UK has grown strongly, accounting for nearly a third of household consumption growth since the third quarter of 2011. Facilitating this spending, car finance has been the main reason for the strong recent growth in unsecured credit.
Demand for durable goods, such as cars, is highly sensitive to consumer confidence and access to credit, both of which fell sharply in 2008 as the financial crisis deepened. The introduction of the car scrappage scheme in April 2009 gave a temporary boost to demand that ended in 2010. The current recovery began in mid-2011, and has continued, with new car registrations rising more than 10 per cent a year.
But UK car consumption is highly import intensive. Chart C shows that the share of new car registrations met by domestic production has fallen from 45 per cent two decades ago to just 14 per cent now. This limits the benefit to GDP growth of stronger car consumption. Indeed, Chart D shows that more than half the contribution to household consumption growth from car consumption was accounted for by imports.
But the UK also produces cars for export and overseas demand has also been strong. While overall net trade has made a very modest contribution to GDP in recent years, the UK car-trade balance has moved from a 0.5 per cent of GDP deficit in 2007 to a small surplus in the first three quarters of 2013, helped by the strength of non-EU exports (particularly to China). But again the impact on GDP is limited, as domestic car production uses nearly three times more imports for every pound of output than the economy as a whole. So while domestic car consumption is a good indicator of consumer confidence, and car trade in isolation has helped reduce the UK’s trade deficit, the overall effect on the economy has been less positive.
Mr. K: "In a shock decision the European Court of Justice (ECJ) went against its own legal adviser to give the European Securities and Markets Authority the power to ban short selling when it fears for market stability, scrapping the UK’s veto over the rules."
Is this a shock? The EU and ECJ are despicable, unaccountable power-grabbing organisations. The sooner we leave, the better.
Well we know that the ECJ is a purely political body and the label "Justice", is another big lie. ONLY UKIP and ONLY UKIP will get us out of the increasingly despotic and authoritarian EU.
I have not lost anything. It's just two different definitions, and yours is misleading, as you know. But if you choose to spam this site with propaganda, that's up to you. The graph on that video is sourced from The Spectator I think – hardly a left-wing source.
Only thing that can save the Conservatives I feel are bribes at the nxt election. Tax cuts for every man, woman and their dog. Tax cuts for the rich, tax cuts for the poor. Book unbalancing huge massive giveaways.
Comments
You forgot to add the qualifier "as a proportion of GDP" - what happens to those figures if there is another recession? It's a silly measure.
The government will have massively increased the debt by 2015 - not "paying off the national credit card" as Osborne says in this speech:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2u-9Gn1IlE
No, we're just suspicious of over inflated figures and wobbly statistics. I welcome 160K of new jobs with open arms, and so do all of UKIP. Provided that is, that they are proper jobs providing a proper service for a proper wage and not some shelf filling work that will not be needed in a couple of months. It will be interesting to see a proper breakdown - not only if they were in private or public divisions - of the 160K and see what percentage of manufacturing there is besides windmills.
They'll need one hell of a ground game to hang onto those puppies now.
https://mobile.twitter.com/LeylaHussein
I'm sure a kipper government would be doling out major CEO positions to job seekers like confetti.
I see Dyson is creating 3000 engineering jobs in Malmsbury, those good enough for you??
From memory there are a few Labour targets and then a huge gap to Leeds North West and alot that are out of reach unless the Lib Dems really, really implode ?
2. The figures in your video are a subset of Public Sector Net Debt, i.e. they are PSND "excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions".
I am not contesting that 'PSND ex' has risen in both nominal and real terms over the course of this parliament: it is the inevitable consequence of inheriting public finances from Labour which required the government to borrow £1 in every £4 spent. This ratio has already fallen from 1:4 to 1:6 and will fall further in this parliamentary term, but it will take 8-9 years [from 2010] to balance.
What the PSND figures show is that nominal net debt was £2 228 308 million at the end of the 2009/10 fiscal year. At the end of December 2013 this figure was £2 228 315 million, so currently a rise in nominal debt of £7 million over the course of this parliament. A massive real terms fall which accounts for the decline in the GDP ratio.
You must remember the rise in PSND ex, from £828 419 million at the end of the 2009/10 f/y to £1 254 303 million at the end of December 2013 is fully consolidated in the PSND figures.
You not only lose your woggle, TLBS, but you lose your new Cub Scout cap too.
I understand that but there are also a number of lib/tory marginals. It's often argued that those marginals ARE DIFFERENT because the ground game of the libs there is very strong.
I'm wondering if they are really that different now.
UK car sales 2265k vehicles, UK production 1510k. That difference is about £8 bn on our BoP or 3 car plants.
http://www.cityam.com/article/1390442087/humiliation-uk-europe-overrules-finance-veto
"In a shock decision the European Court of Justice (ECJ) went against its own legal adviser to give the European Securities and Markets Authority the power to ban short selling when it fears for market stability, scrapping the UK’s veto over the rules."
Is this a shock? The EU and ECJ are despicable, unaccountable power-grabbing organisations. The sooner we leave, the better.
Whatever the arguments, you can't argue with the numbers.
Hugh et al think they only have to turn up with a red rosette to get a majority. They could be right.
Lab:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE&usp=drive_web
Con:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc&usp=drive_web
LD:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHJvOXRkdEVLNUhBWG1JQzBVekVjWnc&usp=drive_web
Combined:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHNjRUpXY2ZYamVrVlJPbmRNdzNTd0E&usp=drive_web
Anthony Wells has a LD defence list:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/
I have not lost anything. It's just two different definitions, and yours is misleading, as you know. But if you choose to spam this site with propaganda, that's up to you. The graph on that video is sourced from The Spectator I think – hardly a left-wing source.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/01/david-cameron-tells-porkies-about-britains-national-debt/
While it broadly made the same general point as you - that an increase in car sales and car manufacturing does not translate to proportional increases in GDP and decreases in the BoP due to the imports it sucks in - the actual outcome was calculated by the OBR at a very small net benefit to both at current sales and manufacturing levels.
I have quoted this passage before but it is worth a second airing:
Car consumption and production
In volume terms, spending on cars in the UK has grown strongly, accounting for nearly a third of household consumption growth since the third quarter of 2011. Facilitating this spending, car finance has been the main reason for the strong recent growth in unsecured credit.
Demand for durable goods, such as cars, is highly sensitive to consumer confidence and access to credit, both of which fell sharply in 2008 as the financial crisis deepened. The introduction of the car scrappage scheme in April 2009 gave a temporary boost to demand that ended in 2010. The current recovery began in mid-2011, and has continued, with new car registrations rising more than 10 per cent a year.
But UK car consumption is highly import intensive. Chart C shows that the share of new car registrations met by domestic production has fallen from 45 per cent two decades ago to just 14 per cent now. This limits the benefit to GDP growth of stronger car consumption. Indeed, Chart D shows that more than half the contribution to household consumption growth from car consumption was accounted for by imports.
But the UK also produces cars for export and overseas demand has also been strong. While overall net trade has made a very modest contribution to GDP in recent years, the UK car-trade balance has moved from a 0.5 per cent of GDP deficit in 2007 to a small surplus in the first three quarters of 2013, helped by the strength of non-EU exports (particularly to China). But again the impact on GDP is limited, as domestic car production uses nearly three times more imports for every pound of output than the economy as a whole. So while domestic car consumption is a good indicator of consumer confidence, and car trade in isolation has helped reduce the UK’s trade deficit, the overall effect on the economy has been less positive.
ONLY UKIP and ONLY UKIP will get us out of the increasingly despotic and authoritarian EU.
And they indisputably tell the story accurately.
Forget your cap, :TLBS, that is but a small and temporary inconvenience. It now appears you have lost your marbles, an altogether more serious matter.
http://www.mikehancock.co.uk/news/944/24/Statement-from-Portsmouth-Liberal-Democrats/
Even that might not be enough.
From the Guardian, that straight talking no-nonsense UKIP leader everybody loves.
Your concern is touching. Now, I believe LP stands for Limp Pole - no wonder you never did well at Scouts!
Perhaps we should send Mike Hancock to Bratislava to join you. He seems to have the appropriate implantation skills.
Blimey. It really is a whole different world.