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The next general election could be the last to be held under FPTP – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
The next general election could be the last to be held under FPTP – politicalbetting.com

The Elections Act 2022 comes into force today, replacing the Supplementary Vote system used in Mayoral and PCC Elections with First Past the Post.Personally, I think the Tories may soon regret setting a precedent for changing the voting system without a referendum…

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Comments

  • First like Sir Keir Starmer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Patel's parting shot?

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    They can ask till their primary genitalia turn purple. If they ain't in power under FPTP, nobody gonna pay them no nevermind.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,926

    First like Sir Keir Starmer.

    Only because you are using First Past The Post. I can still win on the transfers.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,449
    I'd miss FPTP. Seat betting is my most profitable market.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,300
    The next election "could" be the last to be fought under FPTP. And Leon "could" be abducted by aliens tomorrow. In both examples the "could" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

    With FPTP though, the problem is that the incumbent is always elected via FPTP. Therefore has no interest in changing it.

    A proportional system would benefit smaller parties, as well as most likely cause both main parties to split off into two (Corbynite vs New Labour, Moderate Cons vs swivel-eyed-loons, etc). So it's in the interest of neither of the main parties to let it happen.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    FUDHY “could” not be a Franco Fan.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Yes, but if a Lab-LD coalition do this they need to not be naïve enough to think this "locks" the Tories out of power forever.

    They could be out of office again very rapidly but to a new coalition of right-wing parties.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    MaxPB said:

    Unlikely, FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither of them will mess with it.

    Red Tories, Blue Tories, same shit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    There seems more of a groundswell of support for electoral reform in Labour thesedays, but whether that holds up after an election win remains to be seen, others have certainly found their enthusiasm dipping in that situation. Whether a coalition would do it I'm less certain of, but increases the chance.

    I don't think changing the voting system for mayoralties etc was in the 2019 manifesto, but could be implied by a general statement about supporting FPTP.

    We will continue to support the First Past the Post system of voting, as it allows voters to kick out politicians who don’t deliver, both locally and national

    So a general committment of some kind to electoral reform in the Labour manifesto would give them wiggle room.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    How many of the Lib Dem undead are still in the Lords?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Great news! The Metropolitan Police have told me they will not be investigating my breach of national security because it happened in the past!

    https://twitter.com/cruelabraverman/status/1585314930374639616?s=46&t=4xGu4Gm_AE44eE1YyMKjVw
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    MaxPB said:

    Unlikely, FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither of them will mess with it.

    Red Tories, Blue Tories, same shit.
    Tartan Tories, different shit.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    MaxPB said:

    Unlikely, FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither of them will mess with it.

    Red Tories, Blue Tories, same shit.
    Tartan Tories, different shit.
    That slur lost its traction circa 1968.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,492
    edited October 26
    MaxPB said:

    Unlikely, FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither of them will mess with it.

    Well clearly Labour can't count. In the last 70 years FPTP has delivered just 24 years of Labour Governments, so they clearly are as stupid as they look, should they wish to continue the Conservative leaning advantage.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 516
    kyf_100 said:

    With FPTP though, the problem is that the incumbent is always elected via FPTP. Therefore has no interest in changing it.

    A proportional system would benefit smaller parties, as well as most likely cause both main parties to split off into two (Corbynite vs New Labour, Moderate Cons vs swivel-eyed-loons, etc). So it's in the interest of neither of the main parties to let it happen.

    PR for local elections might be a bit more feasible? The politicians deciding it would be a bit less directly affected. And it's easier to do the "change system without referendum" thing for council elections that a lot fewer people care about anyway...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    FPTP

    Love the Enchanted Forest. Haven't been since Covid began but used to stay in the same hotel every year. From talking to the hotelier The Enchanted Forest is a bit of double edged sword for them. Yes, they are almost fully booked for the time it is on but September is a quiet month before hand so it is tricky to juggle the staffing coming off the Summer season so they always find it tricky to have the Hotel up to standard for the Enchanted Forest customers.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    I gave Suella Braverman her job back after seeing this interview and being reminded of her razor sharp intellect and ability to remain cool and effective under pressure.
    #Reshuffle


    https://twitter.com/parody_pm/status/1585258921497088000?s=46&t=4xGu4Gm_AE44eE1YyMKjVw
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,694
    Your regular reminder that the main purpose of FPTP is to keep the likes of Farage from being the Conservative's kingmaker, not to keep the left wing parties out of power.

    Even on the rare occasions under a more proportional system when a left wing coalition did make it past 50% of the votes, they'd then have a similar problem with the Greens, who'd have no reason not to go ultra-militant once FPTP bit the dust.

    In short: be careful what you wish for.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540

    Yes, but if a Lab-LD coalition do this they need to not be naïve enough to think this "locks" the Tories out of power forever.

    They could be out of office again very rapidly but to a new coalition of right-wing parties.

    They'll do it partly because they're naïve enough to think it keeps the Tories out of power forever, and then they will be terribly shocked when reality turns round and bites them on the bum.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Keir Starmer still banging on about “lettuce”?!?

    Puhrleeeeese.

    The man just has zero “feel”. Total dud.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,202

    TimS said:

    It’s over 20C here in the Maconnais at 8.30 and I’m out on the terrace in the dark in short sleeves listening to crickets chirping. It’s nearly November. 25C forecast tomorrow.

    #climatechange.

    Incidentally I worked out the nearest nukeable location is St Yan air force base, 43km to our SW. reckon it would be a smallish warhead for that one rather than a megaton city-destroyer. Lyon 100km to the Soith gets one of them. Possibly Le Creusot or Montceau les Mines 50km to the NW get a small one. Dijon? Far enough away not to worry.

    So I’d see the flash, possibly get a bit of fallout on a Westerly but not too much. Would be like the scene in Empire of the Sun when the boy sees the Nagasaki bomb and thinks it’s his mother going up to heaven.

    Russia doesnt have enough 'megaton' nukes to nuke Lyon with one. They may have a handful of Avangard with a yiekd of 2 to 5mt, but no more than a dozen or so. The Satan 2 Sarmats are not yet operational and the alleged 100mt nuclear torpedo is complete fantasy horseshit. No such weapon exists, they might have a 2mt torpedo but that won't be anywhere near enough to create a tidal wave.
    Most if its arsenal is aging Sarmats with multiple 400 or 800 kt warheads that may or may not work, a few hundred sub launched that may or may not work or be in dock and a hundred air dropped on heavy long range bombers plus their battlefield collection.
    This ain't '62 but any exchange would be pretty grotesque even with all their dusty old crap. Some of it would get through
    The fun bit about the 100 megaton torpedo is that it was a fantasy from the 1960s - previously proposed and developed in secret without the cooperation of the Soviet Navy. Who binned the project the moment they found out, on the grounds that it was a useless waste of time.
    Cracking bedtime horror story for the incontinent though
    Except that basic maths shows the tidal wave thing to be mostly garbage. Multi megaton tests in the 60s didn’t get close to creating a vaguely dangerous wave

    The damage would actually be from the water vaporised and made radioactive - see Baker etc. Even that would have a limited radius.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,492
    Endillion said:

    Your regular reminder that the main purpose of FPTP is to keep the likes of Farage from being the Conservative's kingmaker, not to keep the left wing parties out of power.

    Even on the rare occasions under a more proportional system when a left wing coalition did make it past 50% of the votes, they'd then have a similar problem with the Greens, who'd have no reason not to go ultra-militant once FPTP bit the dust.

    In short: be careful what you wish for.

    Wouldn't 2017 have given us a May/ Farage dream ticket? If that's what a MAJORITY of voters desire, so be it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392

    FUDHY “could” not be a Franco Fan.

    To put your mind at rest, FPT

    I am a consumer of primary research not someone who conducts. I assimilate, assess and form judgements based on data provided by others.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540

    With FPTP we end up with two main parties that are in reality coalitions. Is that better that PR where you tend to end up with actual coalitions? I’m probably not the only one who thinks the 2010-2015 government was one of the best in recent decades. Tories moderated to some extent by Lib Dems.

    One of the problems the country has now is that the internal Tory party coalition has broken down. If it was a real coalition between two independent parties we would be much more likely to see an election, and the voters would be able to decide which party in the Tory coalition was stronger in the future.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392

    With FPTP we end up with two main parties that are in reality coalitions. Is that better that PR where you tend to end up with actual coalitions? I’m probably not the only one who thinks the 2010-2015 government was one of the best in recent decades. Tories moderated to some extent by Lib Dems.

    Yes because in FPTP the coalition negotiation happens upfront and is documented in the manifesto
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,202
    Endillion said:

    Your regular reminder that the main purpose of FPTP is to keep the likes of Farage from being the Conservative's kingmaker, not to keep the left wing parties out of power.

    Even on the rare occasions under a more proportional system when a left wing coalition did make it past 50% of the votes, they'd then have a similar problem with the Greens, who'd have no reason not to go ultra-militant once FPTP bit the dust.

    In short: be careful what you wish for.

    Israel is an example where a number of small, very loony, parties often control the fate of the country.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Extraordinary from Jake Berry - says Suella Braverman committed multiple breaches and that cabinet secretary Simon Case made his view clear and that she did not own up to it but was presented with the evidence https://twitter.com/piersuncensored/status/1585361104062058508
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    FUDHY “could” not be a Franco Fan.

    To put your mind at rest, FPT

    I am a consumer of primary research not someone who conducts. I assimilate, assess and form judgements based on data provided by others.
    That is one of the most tragic things I’ve read in the 2020s.

    DYOR does actually mean Do Your Own Research You Bloody Vegetable.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    'You take a week off work if you've got the flu - not if you've committed a security breach. What's going on?'

    @SophyRidgeSky presses Maria Caulfield MP on the re-appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary.

    #TheTake: https://trib.al/dwvcRFT

    📺 Sky 501 / YouTube https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1585365577815756809/video/1
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    Endillion said:

    Your regular reminder that the main purpose of FPTP is to keep the likes of Farage from being the Conservative's kingmaker, not to keep the left wing parties out of power.

    Even on the rare occasions under a more proportional system when a left wing coalition did make it past 50% of the votes, they'd then have a similar problem with the Greens, who'd have no reason not to go ultra-militant once FPTP bit the dust.

    In short: be careful what you wish for.

    If the centre-left and the centre-right want to keep the extremes out of power then they can form a coalition with each other.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 26

    TimS said:

    It’s over 20C here in the Maconnais at 8.30 and I’m out on the terrace in the dark in short sleeves listening to crickets chirping. It’s nearly November. 25C forecast tomorrow.

    #climatechange.

    Incidentally I worked out the nearest nukeable location is St Yan air force base, 43km to our SW. reckon it would be a smallish warhead for that one rather than a megaton city-destroyer. Lyon 100km to the Soith gets one of them. Possibly Le Creusot or Montceau les Mines 50km to the NW get a small one. Dijon? Far enough away not to worry.

    So I’d see the flash, possibly get a bit of fallout on a Westerly but not too much. Would be like the scene in Empire of the Sun when the boy sees the Nagasaki bomb and thinks it’s his mother going up to heaven.

    Russia doesnt have enough 'megaton' nukes to nuke Lyon with one. They may have a handful of Avangard with a yiekd of 2 to 5mt, but no more than a dozen or so. The Satan 2 Sarmats are not yet operational and the alleged 100mt nuclear torpedo is complete fantasy horseshit. No such weapon exists, they might have a 2mt torpedo but that won't be anywhere near enough to create a tidal wave.
    Most if its arsenal is aging Sarmats with multiple 400 or 800 kt warheads that may or may not work, a few hundred sub launched that may or may not work or be in dock and a hundred air dropped on heavy long range bombers plus their battlefield collection.
    This ain't '62 but any exchange would be pretty grotesque even with all their dusty old crap. Some of it would get through
    The fun bit about the 100 megaton torpedo is that it was a fantasy from the 1960s - previously proposed and developed in secret without the cooperation of the Soviet Navy. Who binned the project the moment they found out, on the grounds that it was a useless waste of time.
    Cracking bedtime horror story for the incontinent though
    Except that basic maths shows the tidal wave thing to be mostly garbage. Multi megaton tests in the 60s didn’t get close to creating a vaguely dangerous wave

    The damage would actually be from the water vaporised and made radioactive - see Baker etc. Even that would have a limited radius.
    Yes absolutely, hence its a scare story not anything remotely plausible. Airburst for damage radius, ground burst for fallout contamination, water burst for wasting a nuke
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    With FPTP we end up with two main parties that are in reality coalitions. Is that better that PR where you tend to end up with actual coalitions? I’m probably not the only one who thinks the 2010-2015 government was one of the best in recent decades. Tories moderated to some extent by Lib Dems.

    One of the problems the country has now is that the internal Tory party coalition has broken down. If it was a real coalition between two independent parties we would be much more likely to see an election, and the voters would be able to decide which party in the Tory coalition was stronger in the future.
    I think this is the key feature of a change from FPTP.

    We've no idea what parties will emerge after the splits of a few of electoral cycles.

    Labour are already (more than) technically a coalition of The Labour Party and the Co-Operative Party - and there is a strong identity behind both of those entities - though I suspect the wider public are broadly unaware of that fact. There are Labour leaning Greens, Radical Greens, the SWP lot, Corbynites etc.

    The Tories have a broad assortment of political factions, and the LDs are divisible into Orange Bookers, Social Democrats and even the odd Liberal.

    It's worth changing the system just for the jollies.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540

    Endillion said:

    Your regular reminder that the main purpose of FPTP is to keep the likes of Farage from being the Conservative's kingmaker, not to keep the left wing parties out of power.

    Even on the rare occasions under a more proportional system when a left wing coalition did make it past 50% of the votes, they'd then have a similar problem with the Greens, who'd have no reason not to go ultra-militant once FPTP bit the dust.

    In short: be careful what you wish for.

    Israel is an example where a number of small, very loony, parties often control the fate of the country.
    That's partly because of the particular form of PR used in Israel. If they used a different system they would have different problems.

    STV doesn't result in small, very loony, parties controlling the fate of Ireland. Though it has made it easier for politicians like the Healy-Raes to flourish.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Kari Lake will be the first female POTUS, part 295

    NEW INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL OF ARIZONA

    54/43 Lake

    https://twitter.com/politicsrea/status/1585358583990190080?s=20&t=aaam4SlcreRiHj_1ZbL0yA
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,202

    TimS said:

    It’s over 20C here in the Maconnais at 8.30 and I’m out on the terrace in the dark in short sleeves listening to crickets chirping. It’s nearly November. 25C forecast tomorrow.

    #climatechange.

    Incidentally I worked out the nearest nukeable location is St Yan air force base, 43km to our SW. reckon it would be a smallish warhead for that one rather than a megaton city-destroyer. Lyon 100km to the Soith gets one of them. Possibly Le Creusot or Montceau les Mines 50km to the NW get a small one. Dijon? Far enough away not to worry.

    So I’d see the flash, possibly get a bit of fallout on a Westerly but not too much. Would be like the scene in Empire of the Sun when the boy sees the Nagasaki bomb and thinks it’s his mother going up to heaven.

    Russia doesnt have enough 'megaton' nukes to nuke Lyon with one. They may have a handful of Avangard with a yiekd of 2 to 5mt, but no more than a dozen or so. The Satan 2 Sarmats are not yet operational and the alleged 100mt nuclear torpedo is complete fantasy horseshit. No such weapon exists, they might have a 2mt torpedo but that won't be anywhere near enough to create a tidal wave.
    Most if its arsenal is aging Sarmats with multiple 400 or 800 kt warheads that may or may not work, a few hundred sub launched that may or may not work or be in dock and a hundred air dropped on heavy long range bombers plus their battlefield collection.
    This ain't '62 but any exchange would be pretty grotesque even with all their dusty old crap. Some of it would get through
    The fun bit about the 100 megaton torpedo is that it was a fantasy from the 1960s - previously proposed and developed in secret without the cooperation of the Soviet Navy. Who binned the project the moment they found out, on the grounds that it was a useless waste of time.
    Cracking bedtime horror story for the incontinent though
    Except that basic maths shows the tidal wave thing to be mostly garbage. Multi megaton tests in the 60s didn’t get close to creating a vaguely dangerous wave

    The damage would actually be from the water vaporised and made radioactive - see Baker etc. Even that would have a limited radius.
    Yes absolutely, hence its a scare story not anything remotely plausible. Airburst for damage radius, ground burst for fallout contamination, water burst for wasting a nuke
    Well, it would create a gigantic mushroom cloud….

    “It seemed to them that, black against the pall of cloud, there rose a huge shape of shadow, impenetrable, lightning-crowned, filling all the sky. Enormous it reared above the world, and stretched out towards them a vast threatening hand, terrible but impotent: for even as it leaned over them, a great wind took it, and it was all blown away, and passed; and then a hush fell.”
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    edited October 26

    I gave Suella Braverman her job back after seeing this interview and being reminded of her razor sharp intellect and ability to remain cool and effective under pressure.
    #Reshuffle


    https://twitter.com/parody_pm/status/1585258921497088000?s=46&t=4xGu4Gm_AE44eE1YyMKjVw

    Outrageous! A must listen
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Baker remains at NI.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    TimS said:

    It’s over 20C here in the Maconnais at 8.30 and I’m out on the terrace in the dark in short sleeves listening to crickets chirping. It’s nearly November. 25C forecast tomorrow.

    #climatechange.

    Incidentally I worked out the nearest nukeable location is St Yan air force base, 43km to our SW. reckon it would be a smallish warhead for that one rather than a megaton city-destroyer. Lyon 100km to the Soith gets one of them. Possibly Le Creusot or Montceau les Mines 50km to the NW get a small one. Dijon? Far enough away not to worry.

    So I’d see the flash, possibly get a bit of fallout on a Westerly but not too much. Would be like the scene in Empire of the Sun when the boy sees the Nagasaki bomb and thinks it’s his mother going up to heaven.

    Russia doesnt have enough 'megaton' nukes to nuke Lyon with one. They may have a handful of Avangard with a yiekd of 2 to 5mt, but no more than a dozen or so. The Satan 2 Sarmats are not yet operational and the alleged 100mt nuclear torpedo is complete fantasy horseshit. No such weapon exists, they might have a 2mt torpedo but that won't be anywhere near enough to create a tidal wave.
    Most if its arsenal is aging Sarmats with multiple 400 or 800 kt warheads that may or may not work, a few hundred sub launched that may or may not work or be in dock and a hundred air dropped on heavy long range bombers plus their battlefield collection.
    This ain't '62 but any exchange would be pretty grotesque even with all their dusty old crap. Some of it would get through
    The fun bit about the 100 megaton torpedo is that it was a fantasy from the 1960s - previously proposed and developed in secret without the cooperation of the Soviet Navy. Who binned the project the moment they found out, on the grounds that it was a useless waste of time.
    Cracking bedtime horror story for the incontinent though
    Except that basic maths shows the tidal wave thing to be mostly garbage. Multi megaton tests in the 60s didn’t get close to creating a vaguely dangerous wave

    The damage would actually be from the water vaporised and made radioactive - see Baker etc. Even that would have a limited radius.
    Yes absolutely, hence its a scare story not anything remotely plausible. Airburst for damage radius, ground burst for fallout contamination, water burst for wasting a nuke
    Well, it would create a gigantic mushroom cloud….

    “It seemed to them that, black against the pall of cloud, there rose a huge shape of shadow, impenetrable, lightning-crowned, filling all the sky. Enormous it reared above the world, and stretched out towards them a vast threatening hand, terrible but impotent: for even as it leaned over them, a great wind took it, and it was all blown away, and passed; and then a hush fell.”
    Tolkein at his finest
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Roger said:

    I gave Suella Braverman her job back after seeing this interview and being reminded of her razor sharp intellect and ability to remain cool and effective under pressure.
    #Reshuffle


    https://twitter.com/parody_pm/status/1585258921497088000?s=46&t=4xGu4Gm_AE44eE1YyMKjVw

    Outrageous!
    Glad you are outraged. The Tories around here really really don’t care.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    I LOVE ELON


    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585341984679469056?s=20&t=aaam4SlcreRiHj_1ZbL0yA
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    TimS said:

    It’s over 20C here in the Maconnais at 8.30 and I’m out on the terrace in the dark in short sleeves listening to crickets chirping. It’s nearly November. 25C forecast tomorrow.

    #climatechange.

    Incidentally I worked out the nearest nukeable location is St Yan air force base, 43km to our SW. reckon it would be a smallish warhead for that one rather than a megaton city-destroyer. Lyon 100km to the Soith gets one of them. Possibly Le Creusot or Montceau les Mines 50km to the NW get a small one. Dijon? Far enough away not to worry.

    So I’d see the flash, possibly get a bit of fallout on a Westerly but not too much. Would be like the scene in Empire of the Sun when the boy sees the Nagasaki bomb and thinks it’s his mother going up to heaven.

    Russia doesnt have enough 'megaton' nukes to nuke Lyon with one. They may have a handful of Avangard with a yiekd of 2 to 5mt, but no more than a dozen or so. The Satan 2 Sarmats are not yet operational and the alleged 100mt nuclear torpedo is complete fantasy horseshit. No such weapon exists, they might have a 2mt torpedo but that won't be anywhere near enough to create a tidal wave.
    Most if its arsenal is aging Sarmats with multiple 400 or 800 kt warheads that may or may not work, a few hundred sub launched that may or may not work or be in dock and a hundred air dropped on heavy long range bombers plus their battlefield collection.
    This ain't '62 but any exchange would be pretty grotesque even with all their dusty old crap. Some of it would get through
    The fun bit about the 100 megaton torpedo is that it was a fantasy from the 1960s - previously proposed and developed in secret without the cooperation of the Soviet Navy. Who binned the project the moment they found out, on the grounds that it was a useless waste of time.
    Cracking bedtime horror story for the incontinent though
    Except that basic maths shows the tidal wave thing to be mostly garbage. Multi megaton tests in the 60s didn’t get close to creating a vaguely dangerous wave

    The damage would actually be from the water vaporised and made radioactive - see Baker etc. Even that would have a limited radius.
    Yes absolutely, hence its a scare story not anything remotely plausible. Airburst for damage radius, ground burst for fallout contamination, water burst for wasting a nuke
    Well, it would create a gigantic mushroom cloud….

    “It seemed to them that, black against the pall of cloud, there rose a huge shape of shadow, impenetrable, lightning-crowned, filling all the sky. Enormous it reared above the world, and stretched out towards them a vast threatening hand, terrible but impotent: for even as it leaned over them, a great wind took it, and it was all blown away, and passed; and then a hush fell.”
    Tolkein at his finest
    Tolkein. Jeepers creepers. 5th rater
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Leon said:

    Kari Lake will be the first female POTUS, part 295

    NEW INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL OF ARIZONA

    54/43 Lake

    https://twitter.com/politicsrea/status/1585358583990190080?s=20&t=aaam4SlcreRiHj_1ZbL0yA

    Did you see the Sunday Times has picked up on her this weekend? Looking at her chances for GOP veep.

    Annoyingly BF still don't have her in their list.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,084
    edited October 26

    MaxPB said:

    Unlikely, FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither of them will mess with it.

    Red Tories, Blue Tories, same shit.
    Tartan Tories, different shit.
    That slur lost its traction circa 1968.
    Interesting to see a PBTory confessing to being shite, too. So far as I can make out the logic thereof.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Elon owning Twitter could be a game-changer

    We get The Donald back online, at last. We need to hear his thoughts. And no more banning of lab leak theories, just because they upset lefty retards
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Leon said:

    I LOVE ELON


    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    1h
    Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585341984679469056?s=20&t=aaam4SlcreRiHj_1ZbL0yA

    Let the sackings commence
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,084

    Yes, but if a Lab-LD coalition do this they need to not be naïve enough to think this "locks" the Tories out of power forever.

    They could be out of office again very rapidly but to a new coalition of right-wing parties.

    They'll have to think of a better fiddle than they tried at Holyrood with the buggered d'Hondt (which remains unchanged, btw).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    PM’s first full day in the job today and the former chairman Jake Berry already taking direct aim at Sunak’s first speech as PM outside Downing St yesterday, promising a government “of accountability at every level”
    https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1585371109738049536
    https://twitter.com/piersuncensored/status/1585361104062058508
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,084
    edited October 26
    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    Nah, just go somewhere in Scotland. Though the Aussie outback is really special. You get to see the Magellanic Clouds for one thing. And it doesn't rain so much. Different stars though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Leon said:

    Elon owning Twitter could be a game-changer

    We get The Donald back online, at last. We need to hear his thoughts. And no more banning of lab leak theories, just because they upset lefty retards

    Good joke going the rounds: Elon Musk has told 75% of Twitter employees they can Work From Home. Just not for Twitter
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    The Tories might need PR to survive their oncoming apocalypse.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576

    Endillion said:

    Your regular reminder that the main purpose of FPTP is to keep the likes of Farage from being the Conservative's kingmaker, not to keep the left wing parties out of power.

    Even on the rare occasions under a more proportional system when a left wing coalition did make it past 50% of the votes, they'd then have a similar problem with the Greens, who'd have no reason not to go ultra-militant once FPTP bit the dust.

    In short: be careful what you wish for.

    If the centre-left and the centre-right want to keep the extremes out of power then they can form a coalition with each other.
    In one sense that is perfectly rational. In the western world the Overton window + that which is actually feasible is extremely narrow, and perhaps getting narrower. In terms of big money items LD, Con and Lab offer the same thing - the modern essentials of Managed Expenditure, totalling nearly £1tn, with tinkering around the embroidered edges.

    But having two centrist parties pretending to be different at least stops the extremes having the decisive voice with -5% of the vote.

    Also, the law of unintended consequences suggests FPTP should stay.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    1h
    Elon Musk just changed his bio to "Chief Twit"


    I believe he means it

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1585344478243528704?s=20&t=aaam4SlcreRiHj_1ZbL0yA
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,084
    edited October 26

    The Tories might need PR to survive their oncoming apocalypse.

    Indeed, ScoTories and Slabs depended on it to survive.

    Minority Scottish governhment at Holyrood: PBTOries incessantly for years, soon decades = "One party SNP state!!!"

    Majority Tory government at Westminster: no such reaction from PBTs or indeed other PBers.

    Very odd perceptual difference.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    Nah, just go somewhere in Scotland. Though the Aussie outback is really special. You get to see the Magellanic Clouds for one thing. And it doesn't rain so much. Different stars though.
    Yeah we were thinking somewhere in Scotland. Doubt we'd go back to Mexico with kids, that bit of the trip wasn't particularly family friendly. Getting good photos would be great too, I've got a pretty nice camera that can do A1 poster sized prints. Would absolutely love to have a few for the kids bedrooms.

    Would love to do it in Australia, I'm annoyed now that I didn't do it when I was there last time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,465
    Leon said:

    Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸
    @JackPosobiec
    ·
    1h
    Elon Musk just changed his bio to "Chief Twit"


    I believe he means it

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1585344478243528704?s=20&t=aaam4SlcreRiHj_1ZbL0yA

    That is some good joshing in fairness.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,084
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    Nah, just go somewhere in Scotland. Though the Aussie outback is really special. You get to see the Magellanic Clouds for one thing. And it doesn't rain so much. Different stars though.
    Yeah we were thinking somewhere in Scotland. Doubt we'd go back to Mexico with kids, that bit of the trip wasn't particularly family friendly. Getting good photos would be great too, I've got a pretty nice camera that can do A1 poster sized prints. Would absolutely love to have a few for the kids bedrooms.

    Would love to do it in Australia, I'm annoyed now that I didn't do it when I was there last time.
    Mm, here are a few ideas - though obviously there are plenty of other places.

    https://www.visitscotland.com/see-do/landscapes-nature/dark-sky-parks-sites/
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 513
    See the "likelihood of voting" adjustment...

    It might be sensible for Bolsonaro to keep a low profile from now until Sunday but even if he understands this some of his associates probably won't. He will continue to look sufficiently threatening for few who say they will vote for Lula to find something else to do instead on Sunday.

    Lula has come in to 1.52 now at BF. £14m has been wagered so far!

    https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/brazil-s-lula-widens-lead-slightly-over-bolsonaro-in-two-polls/48009072

    " October 26, 2022 - 18:57

    SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over President Jair Bolsonaro has widened slightly to six percentage points less than a week ahead of a runoff vote, two polls showed on Wednesday.

    Both were conducted between Sunday and Tuesday, and the results could have been influenced by Sunday's incident in which Bolsonaro ally Roberto Jefferson shot at police as he resisted arrest.

    Lula would win 53% of the valid votes, up from last week's 52%, against 47% for Bolsonaro, who had 48% in the previous poll, a survey by PoderData said.

    A poll by Genial/Quaest found Lula widening his lead slightly to 48% of voter support, while Bolsonaro remains at 42%. Excluding blank or annulled votes and the undecided, Lula had 53% of the votes to Bolsonaro's 47%, the same numbers for valid votes as the PoderData poll showed.

    Genial/Quaest tried to estimate the impact of abstentions by making a "likely voter" adjustment for probable intentions: It showed Lula with 52.1% of valid votes against 47.9% for Bolsonaro, a narrower result than the 52.8% to 47.2% the model showed last week.
    "

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    Nah, just go somewhere in Scotland. Though the Aussie outback is really special. You get to see the Magellanic Clouds for one thing. And it doesn't rain so much. Different stars though.
    Yeah we were thinking somewhere in Scotland. Doubt we'd go back to Mexico with kids, that bit of the trip wasn't particularly family friendly. Getting good photos would be great too, I've got a pretty nice camera that can do A1 poster sized prints. Would absolutely love to have a few for the kids bedrooms.

    Would love to do it in Australia, I'm annoyed now that I didn't do it when I was there last time.
    Mm, here are a few ideas - though obviously there are plenty of other places.

    https://www.visitscotland.com/see-do/landscapes-nature/dark-sky-parks-sites/
    Thanks, will have a read through.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    Nah, just go somewhere in Scotland. Though the Aussie outback is really special. You get to see the Magellanic Clouds for one thing. And it doesn't rain so much. Different stars though.
    Yeah we were thinking somewhere in Scotland. Doubt we'd go back to Mexico with kids, that bit of the trip wasn't particularly family friendly. Getting good photos would be great too, I've got a pretty nice camera that can do A1 poster sized prints. Would absolutely love to have a few for the kids bedrooms.

    Would love to do it in Australia, I'm annoyed now that I didn't do it when I was there last time.
    Parts of Exmoor are pretty good for dark skies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    Nah, just go somewhere in Scotland. Though the Aussie outback is really special. You get to see the Magellanic Clouds for one thing. And it doesn't rain so much. Different stars though.
    Nowhere is like the Atacama. High high Andean desert and the clearest skies on the globe

    Look up at night and it conjures a sob. Astonishing

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/star-trekking-chile-astronomy-180955798/
  • MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    There are few astronomical sights more awe-inspiring than a total solar eclipse in a cloud free sky. We travelled to a small village in northern France that lay on the centre of the path of totality to see the 1999 one and had an unforgettable experience.

    I plan on celebrating on upcoming milestone birthday by viewing the 2026 total eclipse from the Sad Hill cemetery in Spain, the set of the finale of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, which lies fortuitously near the centre of the path of totality.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,598
    We seem to still be talking about Rishi Sunak's electoral dysfunction.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,643
    edited October 26
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    There are few astronomical sights more awe-inspiring than a total solar eclipse in a cloud free sky. We travelled to a small village in northern France that lay on the centre of the path of totality to see the 1999 one and had an unforgettable experience.

    I plan on celebrating on upcoming milestone birthday by viewing the 2026 total eclipse from the Sad Hill cemetery in Spain, the set of the finale of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, which lies fortuitously near the centre of the path of totality.
    And nothing more disappointing than having one obscured by thin cloud cover (Devon 1999).
  • timpletimple Posts: 98
    Carnyx said:

    Yes, but if a Lab-LD coalition do this they need to not be naïve enough to think this "locks" the Tories out of power forever.

    They could be out of office again very rapidly but to a new coalition of right-wing parties.

    They'll have to think of a better fiddle than they tried at Holyrood with the buggered d'Hondt (which remains unchanged, btw).
    Electoral Reform society has done the research and STV is the recommended method. Invented by an Englishman it is as patriotic as they come! The Irish use it and voter levels of satisfaction with the system are far higher than ours.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    Carnyx said:

    The Tories might need PR to survive their oncoming apocalypse.

    Indeed, ScoTories and Slabs depended on it to survive.

    Minority Scottish governhment at Holyrood: PBTOries incessantly for years, soon decades = "One party SNP state!!!"

    Majority Tory government at Westminster: no such reaction from PBTs or indeed other PBers.

    Very odd perceptual difference.
    The PBTs have no problem with political power so long as it is concentrated in the right hands, and they have no doubt as to whose hands that is :wink:
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,694

    Endillion said:

    Your regular reminder that the main purpose of FPTP is to keep the likes of Farage from being the Conservative's kingmaker, not to keep the left wing parties out of power.

    Even on the rare occasions under a more proportional system when a left wing coalition did make it past 50% of the votes, they'd then have a similar problem with the Greens, who'd have no reason not to go ultra-militant once FPTP bit the dust.

    In short: be careful what you wish for.

    If the centre-left and the centre-right want to keep the extremes out of power then they can form a coalition with each other.
    Right, which is what happens in Germany (and there are some other examples).

    It's not what happens in Italy. Or Israel.

    So, it's... what? Say, 50:50 that we end up with endless centrist mush going nowhere vs bouncing from one group of extremists to another? I don't like those odds.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,643

    We seem to still be talking about Rishi Sunak's electoral dysfunction.

    You're a Braverman than I am!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Roger said:

    I gave Suella Braverman her job back after seeing this interview and being reminded of her razor sharp intellect and ability to remain cool and effective under pressure.
    #Reshuffle


    https://twitter.com/parody_pm/status/1585258921497088000?s=46&t=4xGu4Gm_AE44eE1YyMKjVw

    Outrageous! A must listen
    Actually, not. The interviewer comes off as a smug, bullying shit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    🔺Exclusive: Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for an independent Scotland to join the EU have been dealt a serious blow by Brussels officlals

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3a78db5c-5567-11ed-a03e-f7ac672386f7?shareToken=2355616ad2d7862a07061dd5ec80725b
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,084
    timple said:

    Carnyx said:

    Yes, but if a Lab-LD coalition do this they need to not be naïve enough to think this "locks" the Tories out of power forever.

    They could be out of office again very rapidly but to a new coalition of right-wing parties.

    They'll have to think of a better fiddle than they tried at Holyrood with the buggered d'Hondt (which remains unchanged, btw).
    Electoral Reform society has done the research and STV is the recommended method. Invented by an Englishman it is as patriotic as they come! The Irish use it and voter levels of satisfaction with the system are far higher than ours.
    I believe the Holyrood voting system is not a devolved power, anyway (it had to be originated at Westminster, in any case, for obvious reasons of there being no Holyrood parliament to begin with ...).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Your regular reminder that the main purpose of FPTP is to keep the likes of Farage from being the Conservative's kingmaker, not to keep the left wing parties out of power.

    Even on the rare occasions under a more proportional system when a left wing coalition did make it past 50% of the votes, they'd then have a similar problem with the Greens, who'd have no reason not to go ultra-militant once FPTP bit the dust.

    In short: be careful what you wish for.

    If the centre-left and the centre-right want to keep the extremes out of power then they can form a coalition with each other.
    Right, which is what happens in Germany (and there are some other examples).

    It's not what happens in Italy. Or Israel.

    So, it's... what? Say, 50:50 that we end up with endless centrist mush going nowhere vs bouncing from one group of extremists to another? I don't like those odds.
    I’m not sure the last few years in this sceptred isle have avoided centrist mush going nowhere vs bouncing from one group of extremists to another.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,968
    PR would probably result in a nationalist right party polling about 15%. A centre right party polling about 25%. A centre left party polling about 25%. The Lib Dems on about 10%. An ultra-left party on about 5%. The Greens on about 10%. And local unionists, nationalists, and other odds and sods on another 10%.
  • MaxPB said:

    Unlikely, FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither of them will mess with it.

    Red Tories, Blue Tories, same shit.
    Tartan Tories, different shit.
    That slur lost its traction circa 1968.
    Wasn't it 1979 when the SNP put Thatcher in?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    Sean_F said:

    PR would probably result in a nationalist right party polling about 15%. A centre right party polling about 25%. A centre left party polling about 25%. The Lib Dems on about 10%. An ultra-left party on about 5%. The Greens on about 10%. And local unionists, nationalists, and other odds and sods on another 10%.

    Make a government out of that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    Scott_xP said:

    🔺Exclusive: Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for an independent Scotland to join the EU have been dealt a serious blow by Brussels officlals

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3a78db5c-5567-11ed-a03e-f7ac672386f7?shareToken=2355616ad2d7862a07061dd5ec80725b

    Enough. Sindy is not gonna happen for 20 years, if ever

    It's done. The moment was 2014, as it turns out. And they came damn close

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,084

    MaxPB said:

    Unlikely, FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither of them will mess with it.

    Red Tories, Blue Tories, same shit.
    Tartan Tories, different shit.
    That slur lost its traction circa 1968.
    Wasn't it 1979 when the SNP put Thatcher in?
    Not according to Jim Callaghan, and he should know.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,643

    MaxPB said:

    Unlikely, FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither of them will mess with it.

    Red Tories, Blue Tories, same shit.
    Tartan Tories, different shit.
    That slur lost its traction circa 1968.
    Wasn't it 1979 when the SNP put Thatcher in?
    I thought it was Frank Maguire.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    Nah, just go somewhere in Scotland. Though the Aussie outback is really special. You get to see the Magellanic Clouds for one thing. And it doesn't rain so much. Different stars though.
    It is indeed. The Southern hemisphere sky seen while camping at Kings Canyon in the Northern Territory was absolutely stunning. Also very good in the remoter parts of Zambia, well away from any light pollution.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353

    MaxPB said:

    Unlikely, FPTP keeps the duopoly in power. Neither of them will mess with it.

    Red Tories, Blue Tories, same shit.
    Tartan Tories, different shit.
    That slur lost its traction circa 1968.
    Wasn't it 1979 when the SNP put Thatcher in?
    Couldn’t have done it without the Libs..
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204
    edited October 26
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔺Exclusive: Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for an independent Scotland to join the EU have been dealt a serious blow by Brussels officlals

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3a78db5c-5567-11ed-a03e-f7ac672386f7?shareToken=2355616ad2d7862a07061dd5ec80725b

    Enough. Sindy is not gonna happen for 20 years, if ever

    It's done. The moment was 2014, as it turns out. And they came damn close

    Rejoin too. Even after the tumult of recent weeks our membership terms would require us to join the Euro and people would say no.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:


    Anyway. A magical evening this evening. The Enchanted Forest on Pitlochry. I had never heard of it until.it was recommended a couple of months backby one of our friendly Scottish contingent - but it appears to be a big deal in these parts. "Oh, you're going to the enchanted forest" they'll say, with a smile, as if you've just discovered a big and wonderful secret. "You'll have a great time." And we did. The family - the wife especially - are connosseurs of a light show, but this was something else. Ethereal, trippy, mystical, spectacular. We walked round with big happy, soppy smiles on our faces.
    As a happy postscript, heading back down the A9 to Dunkeld the sky suddenly cleared. There was a "wow" from the daughter on the right as she saw the dazzling array of stars - and then when we got back to our accommodation the same noise from everyone as we piled out of the car. Utterly astonishing. The girls had never seen anything like it. You could see the Milky Way. You could see shooting stars. Even for adults who had seen one or two starry skies in the past it was astonishing.

    We had a similar wow moment in Mexico earlier this year. We went out boating on a small lake to view bioluminescent plankton but the more amazing part was the clear sky under a new moon. I'd never witnessed the Milky Way first hand, it was an almost spiritual event for us being out there under the star light, witnessing the cosmos first hand. Seeing all those billions of stars from our tiny little bit of space was just an astonishing experience.

    I'd fully recommend proper stargazing to everyone. We want to take Jen and babies 2/3 when they arrive and are old enough. Hopefully the sky won't be full of shitty satellites ruining the view by then.
    Nah, just go somewhere in Scotland. Though the Aussie outback is really special. You get to see the Magellanic Clouds for one thing. And it doesn't rain so much. Different stars though.
    Many places in Scotland are definitely as good as the middle of a desert.

    My favourite spot near Blair/Pitlochry is up at Loch Moraig. It also has a lot of Whooper swans in the winter so there's an audio experience too (they might be there by now).

    We really do miss out a lot from not seeing the stars properly in urban areas. You only really appreciate why the ancients were so obsessed with the heavens when you see the sky in a properly dark place.
  • I know it is the express but this is good news and grown up politics

    Sunak extends Brexit olive branch to VDL and Irish PM in urgent call to end border chaos

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1688206/rishi-sunak-brexit-phone-call-von-der-leyen-Micheal-Martin-northern-ireland-protocol-1688206#ICID=Android_ExpressNewApp_AppShare
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697
    Sean_F said:

    PR would probably result in a nationalist right party polling about 15%. A centre right party polling about 25%. A centre left party polling about 25%. The Lib Dems on about 10%. An ultra-left party on about 5%. The Greens on about 10%. And local unionists, nationalists, and other odds and sods on another 10%.

    I think you can split the centre-right and centre-left into two parties each. Dry and Wet Tories, Social Democrats and Democratic Socialists (Soft Left).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,449
    edited October 26
    Meanwhile.
    Newcastle bus station doesn't have toilets.
    Yet it has 2 and a half hour journeys to Berwick.
    Are we getting HS 2?
    Levelling up?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,618
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    PR would probably result in a nationalist right party polling about 15%. A centre right party polling about 25%. A centre left party polling about 25%. The Lib Dems on about 10%. An ultra-left party on about 5%. The Greens on about 10%. And local unionists, nationalists, and other odds and sods on another 10%.

    Make a government out of that.
    We don't really know, as until we have PR (and hence much reduced Tactical Voting) we don't know what the voters really want.

    We already do form governments from such outcomes, only it is by internal party power struggles. Other countries manage to assemble governments out of such election results. Why can't we?

    What is wrong with people actually voting for the party that they support entirely? All to often people under FPTP have to vote negatively against what they do not want.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    Leon said:

    Kari Lake will be the first female POTUS, part 295

    NEW INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL OF ARIZONA

    54/43 Lake

    https://twitter.com/politicsrea/status/1585358583990190080?s=20&t=aaam4SlcreRiHj_1ZbL0yA

    Is this your latest favourite US politician ?

    She’s a fxcking lunatic who will only accept results if she wins and refuses to accept Biden won.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Scott_xP said:

    🔺Exclusive: Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for an independent Scotland to join the EU have been dealt a serious blow by Brussels officlals

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3a78db5c-5567-11ed-a03e-f7ac672386f7?shareToken=2355616ad2d7862a07061dd5ec80725b

    Dear lord, devastating. Completely unexpected. Utterly cataclysmic.

    This is completely new information never before come to light. Truly the most exclusive of exclusives.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,449

    I know it is the express but this is good news and grown up politics

    Sunak extends Brexit olive branch to VDL and Irish PM in urgent call to end border chaos

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1688206/rishi-sunak-brexit-phone-call-von-der-leyen-Micheal-Martin-northern-ireland-protocol-1688206#ICID=Android_ExpressNewApp_AppShare

    Shame it took so bloody long.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046
    The Charles Line looking well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,863
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔺Exclusive: Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for an independent Scotland to join the EU have been dealt a serious blow by Brussels officlals

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3a78db5c-5567-11ed-a03e-f7ac672386f7?shareToken=2355616ad2d7862a07061dd5ec80725b

    Enough. Sindy is not gonna happen for 20 years, if ever

    It's done. The moment was 2014, as it turns out. And they came damn close

    Rejoin too. Even after the tumult of recent weeks our membership terms would require us to join the Euro and people would say no.
    Indeed. Eventually both sides will see sense and some kind of associate membership will be forged. The UK is never going to join the euro (within foreseeables) and never submit to full political union, but it is mutually beneficial to cooperate more over trade, science, education, travel. When the embers have dulled we will probably end up in some kind of quasi EEA/EFTA

    Extremists on both sides will chafe but the appetite for another referendum or more arguments will be near-zero, especially with the extra menace of a hostile world - Putin, China, nationalist India, et al

    I sometimes wonder if the "democratic west" will unite in an entirely new union, including Japan, SoKo, Oz, etc
  • ‘much more fairer’

    Shirely ‘much fairer’ or ‘much more fair’?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Education, education, education...


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,643
    EPG said:

    The Charles Line looking well.
    True, though Bond Street opened 5 months late! (on Monday 24th)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353
    edited October 26
    dixiedean said:

    I know it is the express but this is good news and grown up politics

    Sunak extends Brexit olive branch to VDL and Irish PM in urgent call to end border chaos

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1688206/rishi-sunak-brexit-phone-call-von-der-leyen-Micheal-Martin-northern-ireland-protocol-1688206#ICID=Android_ExpressNewApp_AppShare

    Shame it took so bloody long.
    Took a while for the German car makers and the Prosecco exporters to get their act together.
This discussion has been closed.