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Tories 40% behind in the Red Wall – politicalbetting.com
Tories 40% behind in the Red Wall – politicalbetting.com
Given how the “Red Wall” and Labour’s collapse there came to dominate GE2019 analysis the regular regular tracker of opinion in the seats from Redfield & Wilton is very useful but terrifying for all the new CON MPs who entered Parliament from the seats there after making gains from LAB at the last election.
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https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-provides-tax-inflation-adjustments-for-tax-year-2023
Howard tried to reverse it.
It's a national contest and at the moment it looks like CON are heading for meltdown everywhere!
The uptick of RFM is there, but nothing for the LDs. They look moribund.
In a real general election - especially a fuck the Tories ELE spectacular - we will see tactical voting off the scale. I expect my party to do much better than the UNS suggests because our votes will coalesce in seats we can win.
Way deeper than the rest of the market.
Quite extraordinary. Better than Robin Cook at the height of his powers!
Telegrph
The Bill for social care Cap has received royal assent. In fact, in a sense it has been passed twice. Once by Cameron and once by Johnson. The trials for the Cap start in next couple of months.
It is beyond a disgrace that this is once again going to be abandoned.
Plus, the reform is about other issues than just the Cap.
Unless you have direct day-to-day experience of the social care system (I have) you have no idea how broken and not fit for purpose it is. And getting worse all the time.
Plus, they must have really disliked Corbyn and ecstatic to be able to return to the fold.
Having said that, I do wonder if an election were to happen now it would be quite tricky to work out who would be the nearest challenger to the Tories given how mad the polls are.
@JamesCleverly "Well that was in response to, er, the announcements that were made, erm, at the time."
1 of Govt's best communicators struggling tday
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1582636600269631488
On that basis, you'd expect another leadership election to go for someone sensible given the latest mess. I don't see it though, think they'll double down.
And then often the worker and client disappear into a cash in hand underworld
ISTR you flagged this up before, Mr Eagles. But it looks as though you may have underestimated the problem.
Essex and Lincolnshire redoubts maybe ?
Kwarteng's short stint as an unashamedly pro business southern England chancellor has probably done lasting damage to the red wall beyond the general carnage.
The Tories worst fear is that Labour and Lib Dems are organised enough to effectively target Blue Wall seats - even if it means Labour potentially end up with 10 or so less seats - because by the looks of it they won't need them.
Go now and she is by some distance the shortest serving PM. Very embarrassing.
Stick around and have Hunt do whatever he wants and ignore her. Very embarrassing.
I think avoiding the former is something she would bear a lot for.
Must-read piece by @DavidGauke on a bonfire of delusions.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/10/liz-truss-a-bonfire-of-delusions-david-gauke
She can leave with real achievements.
The only question now is how they limit their inevitable losses. The solution to that does not lie with Liz Truss.
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1582641064078295040
He's right in saying the mini-budget was so bad that even reversing the mini-budget doesn't fix the damage it created but that will take a lot of explaining to the general public.
The story Labour needs to tell the general public needs to be simpler. But he is 110% correct that the budget has destroyed any ability for the Tory Party to use economic and low tax arguments in the next 15-20 years
In the interests of fairness and to avoid hardship, the actual rate payable could be varied based on total personal income; but the total amount should be at least 13.5% in the case of pensioners who have an income that is higher than the median average wage, but for those who are relying on the state pension, or have a very small private pension the rate should be zero. This would be the core revenue raising part of the policy.
The flipside of this would be that the state pension would rise slightly, and the triple lock would remain - and is paid universally. So the policy would benefit a majority of pensioners.
Politically I think a revolt of wealthy pensioners would be comical and counterproductive. Their mouths have been stuffed with gold for too long.
However. There is an underlying problem The Tory party chose Truss. Even if they switch a good proportion of the blue kippers Tories want what she offers. That's a problem for whoever takes over.
It's clear from Monday (and will probably be even clearer today) that she isn't mentally well at the moment and keeping her in place because you can't work out how to replace her isn't a good look.
The change in the polls was so large, and so rapid, that it represents a visceral fear-based response. When it comes to the election, it's quite possible that the Lib Dems will be able to win many voters on the basis of tactical voting. Also, if a Labour victory comes to be seen as certain, then some voters will feel confident to pre-emptively protest vote against the incoming Labour government by voting Lib Dem.
You'd expect the Lib Dems to do very well as an opposition to Labour first-term government, while the Tories are still in some disarray and disrepute.
Top end contracts are £100+ per month, which means there's going to be £20 monthly increases there.
O2 are pretty good at splitting their airtime and device costs so you only pay the increase on the airtime, EE and others, the whole contract
Most people want the Conservatives out. The last time Libdem MPs held the balance of power at Westminster they put the Conservatives in.
Layla Moran looked as though she was going to be, but doesn't seem to have broken through.
Furthermore, I'd guess that if the next general election had to be within a year, rather than two years, then the markets would probably be pricing in less damage.
This may change as the election approaches. At the moment Labour are very much not-Tories, but as they announce more policies we can expect these to receive more attention from the markets, since they will fairly soon become government policies.
NR. "When I asked you at the Tory Party Conference who supports her economic policy you said -and I'll play it to you -
JC......... "The Prime Minister made it REALLY clear what her philosophy was and if people weren't listening it's their problem not hers!"
NR. (Close to exploding) OUR PROBLEM NOT HERS! I put it to you you didn't listen to the Office of budget responsibility. You didn't listen to the Bank of England .You didn't listen to your former Chancellor. You didn't listen to virtually every economist in in Britain. When I asked her to name a single economist who agreed with her -after a long pause -she said 'Patric Mimford'! AND YOU SAY ITS OUR PROBLEM NOT YOURS.....
(Goodbye James Cleverly!)
However, in 2024 Labour will need to satisfy the OBR and IMF on their plans and they certainly will be constrained in what they can do, hence why I do not think many fear a labour government who will have to grapple with this problem throughout their 5 year term
Also on the rises in broadband/ mobile contracts in April at inflation plus 3.9% I recently agreed a new 2 year contact with BT and on referring to this unacceptable increase I was told that if I contact them between the 1st and 31st of March they will just add £2 or so to the contract.
Not sure I believe that but it is for Ofcom to step in a rule this increase frozen
And frequently with risk premiums associated too, so if that investment goes south then that's their own responsibility.
Personal responsibility means things can go bad as well as good. The state should not bail people out of bad decisions, apart from as a safety net, and if you lend to someone who can't pay you back, that's your own fault.
If looking (and depending on the data you need)
Plusnet if not much data
Giffgaff / Smarty if it's for teenagers who use Gbs a day. both of them still have Eu roaming as well.
And buy the phone separately (even second hand) - there is sod all real difference between a refurbished iPhone 12 pro and a 14 pro.
Hence Starmer will likely just have to heavily increase tax
And then tighten the screw on local government spending because a lot of councils are now Tory lead and will revert to Labour as the local Tory council cops the blame for everything falling apart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAbCsyjil4Y
(He could be a bit more articulate for a lawyer)
Turd bucket.
Lightning rod.
Lifelong Tory voters in the Home counties and West London will simply stay home or vote RefUK or even LD, as if they and their heirs get their assets taken at least they know the LDs don't want to build over the greenbelt unlike Truss.
A temporary delay given the deficit manageable but the £86k cap must come in by the next election
Plus I get a 25% discount via work which makes it very good deal.
But they were always going to lose a lot of their anti-tory support for allowing a conservative government. It's going to take a while to get it back - or a hung parliament where they support a labour-led government, which might instead lose them their anti-labour supporters...
Yep Labour lead was half then. So what. He created the mess that has led to Truss with his half baked Brexit, his lies, his corruption, his attempts to corrupt the constitution. He is the cause of this mess. The Tories are now relying on one of the sane old guard to finally stop the slide.
Truss is simply a symptom of the destruction Boris caused.