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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB is going to win the numbers of seats at LE2013 that are being predicted then it’s going to have to take a fair number from 3rd place
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We could see all sorts of odd results.
I'm preparing to tell Telegraph readers that Immigration can be Good. Here I am, clearing my throat...
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100214432/britain-is-nicer-than-it-used-to-be-no-im-serious-even-checkout-staff-are-more-poilite/
What a load of sanctimonious waffle, even for you, SeanT. Despite a tip of the hat to UKIP, this was a dreadful piece, quite unbecoming of your writing talents. Of course Telegraph readers may lap it up but even they can tell the difference between cream and curds.
In actual (not notional) terms, the the Conservatives and Lib Dems won 69% of the vote between them in 2009. I think the combined figure will be closer to 50% this time around.
Actually Sean, I'm quite decided. I support UKIP and my 79th birthday is tomorrow. BTW I've never fallen pregnant.
Some of the comments are from residents with the RG45 7EG postcode.
I think that shows what a mountain Labour has to climb to have real impact here. These polls are in many of the large parts of the country where Labour does not exist, like Scotland for the tories only more so.
If Ed was 20% ahead in the polls something really exciting might have happened. He isn't. Given their disaster of 2009 Labour will improve but 350 is probably pushing it. The people in these areas simply know better than that and won't make the same mistakes again.
Well happy birthday! Sounds like you are the perfect demographic. As for not getting pregnant -just keep Farage away from the Latvians
I've always been a convert in that particular stable, particularly when it comes to the legalisation of some drugs where the argument is predicated on the current drugs policy not working. Anyway, I think the big question is whether people's perceptions will ever close in on reality, or even get better in any respect. Are we going to have a tipping point?
Mea culpa, I meant to type "comments from residents within the L31 1HW postcode."
They should be able to re-establish fair-sized groups in Kent, Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Hertfordshire, if they have a good night.
Some comments from DN22 0PD too.
"I'm preparing to tell Telegraph readers that Immigration can be Good. Here I am, clearing my throat..."
Prepare for second shortest career in media history....here's the first
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2312763/TV-anchor-AJ-Clemente-fired-words-air-f---s-.html
Interesting graph (which is becoming a nice habit), but how many seats don't feature above?
Yesterday someone on SKY was referring to 600 Tory losses, the first time I had heard that number. More often it has been around 350 losses. What is the consensus of a "good" night for David Cameron on Thursday? Fewer than 300 seats and 5-6 councils lost? What would be a "good" night for Ed Miliband? Gaining more than 300 seats and 5-6 councils?
Never thought I'd say this but I am interested in Tim's prespective on this one and that of someone like Mark Senior.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/james-forsyth/2013/04/ed-miliband-stays-in-the-rough-with-oddly-charmless-radio-interview/
"The problem with Ed Miliband’s World at One interview was that he addressed Martha Kearney as if she was a public meeting. Whenever she asked him a difficult question, he just spoke louder. At one point, he barked at her ‘you don’t understand’."
"The content was also odd. At one point, Miliband implied that a VAT cut would pay for itself — an extreme Lafferite position. It was a sign of just how much Labour doesn’t want to admit that it would increase borrowing, even if only for the short term."
This season, no. Last season I think Kovalainen got out 2-3 times.
I'm planning to put up my early season review of the initial fly-away races tomorrow, for those interested.
Guido has a link to in the interview as well.
http://order-order.com/2013/04/29/listen-ed-milibands-world-at-one-car-crash/#comments
In how many of these rural shire seats where Labour is third do they have the organisation or dedication to put in that kind of effort? Probably not many. As Sean F rightly says, there are some councils which are a good deal more 'urban' / industrial, where Labour stands a better chance but then they'll be starting many of the races there in second, rather than third, place.
I would expect the Conservatives to lose control of rather more than 5/6 councils probably twice that many but most to NOC . Labour will gain overall control in no more than 3/4 . Lib Dems IMHO have a strong chance of taking overall control in Somerset .
Thanks Mark, that is very interesting. I had looked at each of the councils last week and noted that in many the Conservative lead over any other party was very large but the overall majority pre any ward by-elections over the past few years was in single figures.
Thanks for the tip about "The World at One". I thought I'd listen for a couple of minute but it was hypnotic. That man has a special talent; how can he sound so condescending and vacuous at the same time?
Not that it matters much as no one listens to these sort of interviews normally. I didn't even know what WATO stood for before today.
I remember Francis Pym managing to crash and burn like that in a TV interview during an election campaign (and years later, he admitted that he thought he'd wrecked the campaign). Of course, it made not the slightest difference.
But Labour might be more cautious in the future about choosing their interviews for Ed.
You said in the previous thread that the state should intervene in what religious bodies thought if they wanted to have a tax break (I paraphrase - fairly I hope).
Telling charities that what they do must comply with the land is fine. Telling people what they must think is not. If a charitable organisation believes that marriage is a sacrament between a man and a woman (let's make it a Jewish organisation) there is no reason why its work providing a soup kitchen to the homeless should not benefit from a tax break (if that is what the law permits). Providing food to the homeless is the activity for which the tax break is provided. Their view of what marriage means is irrelevant to the charitable activity which is being provided/subsidised by the rest of us.
@Easterross - good luck.
The policeman interviewed specifically said that the passage of time doesn't alter what constitutes abuse. Boys from the age of eight doing a two mile run in the snow with nothing on except for shorts several times a week before lessons would surely get the torturer a lengthy stretch in jail.
(Being interfered with by a male or female pervert would at least have been warm!)
http://order-order.com/2013/04/29/tory-mp-claims-dave-is-safe-no-matter-what-but/#comment-1694020
Annoyingly, while I can assess that 28% of people think that crime is rising in their local area, I really want to know how many of the rest think it is falling. At the national level, perceptions haven't changed much, at the local they have. At the national level, the question is really when reality will kick in.
But they are not too massively off the pace. HRT were, sadly, and often broke the 107% rule. For instance in China this year, the last man (excluding Webber, who was disqualified) was within four seconds of the top time in Q1. That's good enough in my eyes. We need new blood to come into F1 every so often, and too-strict rules will prevent it.
Besides, where do you draw the line? 107%? 105%? 103%? Or would you prefer a system where any team who does not score a point in three years loses their rights to be in F1?
When I was a kid, there were regularly over 24 cars on the grid. It seemed so much more active. The worst was the 2005 US GP. Ahem.
I'd like both teams to remain. As well as increasing the spectacle, both teams are based in the UK and employ good people, so it works on purely jingoistic terms as well.
(*) I can't believe I knew that without looking it up. I need to get a life. Anyone got one going spare?
Ha, I remember 2005. That was a joke.
On points, I knew those setups, but not the years.
Those are some good arguments for the teams to remain. I do think 24 cars is a good total for the grid, but I wish the backmarkers were more competitive.
"Guido has a link to in the interview as well."
He's poor but to call it "a car crash" as Guido does devalues the expression. I'm afraid that's what Ed is like in front of an interviewer. If Labour think that's going to be a problem they've got two years to do something about it.
Kinnock was a better orator and braver in some ways e.g. his speech about the Militant Tendency at the Labour Conference was one of the finest speeches ever. But he was a stronger personality and once people had formed a view of him, it was hard to shift, especially as for so often he had to fight against the very damning view people had formed of the Labour party at the time.
EdM doesn't set the house on fire nor does he scare the bejasus out of you (though I think his natural tendencies are statist and authoritarian) and the Labour appears to be more united than people expected and not populated by the sort of wild-eyed loons we had in the 1980's. That may well be enough when set against a Tory/Lib Dem coalition which, while doing some good things (the raising of the personal allowance etc) seems a bit "meh" and doesn't inspire much loyalty or sense of what they want to do with power.
Even if Labour win I think they will very rapidly find themselves lost because they appear to have no compass by which to chart their journey.
As for 107%; it was not necessarily ignored. They realised that sometimes a driver was slow for some reason beyond their control, for instance a mechanical problem, brainfart or track conditions. For this reason, if a driver had got within that time in one of the free practice sessions, they were generally allowed in.
ISTR there was one year when it rained halfway though qualifying and after one driver had set a very fast time in the dry. Most of the drivers would have been out if the rule was rigidly applied!
Return to 1950s values:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7R7dDJmwPY
Ed didn't sound very composed, but at times he sounded incoherent, it doesn't help if you have a voice for the silent movies and a face for radio. Ultimately if the message is poor, even good presentation won't help.
Janet Daby (Lewisham Cllr) http://janetdaby.blogspot.it/
Vicky Foxcroft (Lewisham Cllr, Unite officer) http://www.vickyfoxcroft.com/
Paula Hirst http://www.paulahirst.com/
Florence Nosegbe (Lambeth Cllr, former NEC candidate, Progress, runner up in Lewisham East selection)
Catherine McDonald (Southwark Cllr, former SpAd to Jim Knight) http://www.catherinemcdonald.org.uk/
Mendora Ogbogto (I don't have a clue on who she is)
Hustings and vote on May 18th.
What?! No Dora?! I demand a re-run!!!!
Brilliant!
Controversy - both Vicky and Janet claim support from CWU, they cant both be right?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/29/ed-miliband-not-tony-blair-who-impress
"It is not Miliband's detractors, haters and enemies who are making an issue of his personality or image – it is Miliband himself. Far from opposing the Conservatives with a nuts and bolts economic critique, he is a pure personality politician. Unfortunately for Labour, the type of personality he projects is not intended to woo "middle England". (The very thought of it …) No: Miliband's world is smaller. Amazingly, he works hard at presenting an image – but it is an image designed to please his own movement. Miliband has constructed an image as a man who spurns New Labour, whose heart is with the workers and their unions, who is no friend to bankers and no enemy to the poor. It is a wonderfully attractive face to present to many in the Labour party and among its well-wishers who crave a bit of red in their flagbearer. Although in reality, Miliband remains as mildly centrist as any contemporary British politician, he has tailored his image to please people who long for the old left to come back. His awkwardness and geekishness help with this. How like dear old Michael Foot he is at times.
But none of Miliband's posturing to please the left means anything at all to the wider electorate that voted New Labour into power three times. While Tories celebrate their three-term leader of yore, Labour denies its far more recent years of triumph. Miliband is rewarded by supporters simply for being Not New Labour. Lack of smoothness helps suggest that.
The very face and mannerisms that help him to be Not Tony Blair by definition fail to mean much to voters who think Aneurin Bevan is a Swedish centre forward. Miliband's persona makes sense within the history of the Labour movement. Outside it, he is communicating less and less."
And we're just at the start of Euro selections and I already notice some names in more than one Endorsements page for candidates in the same region and with just a single ballot (not in regions with 1 ballot per gender. So 2 endorsements would make sense).
I can officially announce that my endorsement for the Lewisham Deptford Labour selection is up for grabs. Come on ladies, how much do you want it?
Not sure if he'll be advocating a £12Bn VAT giveaway to lower the deficit mind you..
Who are you supporting for the Euro selection? The wonderfully named Seb Dance?
But when those bodies start putting their views into practice in such a way as treats minority groups as inferior, the state is entitled to say "you hold those views, fine, but don't expect a tax advantage to be maintained for you when you put yourself outside society's norms today in a way that harms others."
It's not the most attractive shortlist, is it? He seems perfectly fine. Though a former spad. All told I am happier having a vote on the Green selection than Labour's
That Bevan is a better centre forward than Zlatan Ibrahimović
A former SpAd is a gay relationship with another former SpAd.
There are some rumblings on who has been excluded from that shortlist. Labour should get a third seat, so the top new candidate is likely to get in. Anderson or Bertoletti as early favourites?
http://mypict.me/index.php?id=354064184
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/tory-leadership-prepares-mps-for-the-worst/
All my schooling was in the 1940's and early 1950's, (I was conscripted in 1952). It is a fact that caning was frequently practised - on hands mostly, but on the bottom also - and punishments for educational or disciplinary infringements of having to write out up to 500 lines of some peculiarly banal comments, common.
Mind you, all us pupils used to laugh off these punishments, mainly because this was the norm for the times and corporal punishment was widespread.
You're just backing the Italian, Andrea
I note than Lucy and Kamaljeet also need to talk to each other about who really has the backing of Unite and the GMB.
http://audioboo.fm/boos/1360195-ed-miliband-wato-29-4-13
Warning - not for people of a nervous disposition or socialists.
And the reason they are in this pickle is perfectly clear: it's a combination of Brown's deficit-denial, which left Labour in a strategic cul-de-sac, and the fact that Osborne has actually judged things correctly. There really is no alternative to the gentle course towards sanity which he has set out.
If we lose 750 seats, that's an ELE.
Also check Theresa Griffin and Afzal Khan's endorsements in North West to spot some names/unions being in 2 lists...at least there there is the chance of 2 new Lab candidates being elected, so second choice would probably get a seat.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10025928/Ed-Miliband-asked-13-times-whether-Labour-would-borrow-more.html
Noted that Letta has agreed to cut Monti's Mansion Tax (IMU).
Is this a tax holiday, suspension sine die or a repeal?
He said no payment in June while government will reform the system.
http://youtu.be/IEkGtTG0AtA
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/ed-milibands-coldplay-bid-to-voters/
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/school-campaigner-fiona-millar-quits-labour-battle-for-glenda-jacksons-seat-8595217.html
"Education campaigner Fiona Millar today revealed she is pulling out of a battle to represent Labour in Glenda Jackson’s seat at the 2015 election.
She told the Evening Standard she would instead focus all her energy on campaigning against Michael Gove’s school reforms. She also felt Ed Miliband’s education policies were too “vague” at present and wanted to stay outside “the party machine”."
Oh dear
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2316626/Miliband-refuses-TEN-times-admit-Labour-borrow-billions-Alternative-Queens-Speech-reveals-28-1billion-black-hole.html
Was it 10 times or 13 times? Can we get this independently audited?
NBA player Jason Collins comes out as gay.
Good on him. I hope everyone's supportive. Now all we need are for the gay premiership (and other) players to come out as well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22341153
Thanks. It sounds as definitive.
If Holborn & St Pancras becomes vacant in the next 2 years, we will check if she has finished fighting Gove's reforms
Watching Panorama the other day, many Muslims have Sharia ceremonies that are not official weddings under UK law, but are still official to them in that the cleric is the only person who can grant divorce etc
It could be that soon marriages of all sexes are equivalent to civil ceremonies ie legal in terms of the the state, with seperate religious ceremonies for those who are religious, depending on whether the church approve or not?