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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » >How many of the CON 2010 entry will call it day?
The percentages in the CONHome article look quite stark particularly as this comes a week when women in politics have been under the spotlight. The fact that it refers just four puts it into a slightly different context.
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You're not showing any evidence to support this though.
If they were really protest voters then they wouldn't have left the Lib Dems for the Labour party, they'd have either not voted or gone to one of the smaller parties.
If voters went Lab-LD-Lab, that suggests they're left leaning rather than NOTA.
Edited extra bit: wonder what odds you could've gotten on neither Djokovic nor Ferrer making the semis.
I can only think of three though? How many were first elected in 2010 in total?
The LibDems have disappointed them by not bringing back Clause Four while in coalition with the Tories, so those voters are (now indicating to the polls that they are) back with Lab. Of course GE2015 might prove otherwise.
So before GE 2010 they were a NOTA? That's an equally bizarre claim.
Most companies would be happy with that.
Next...
15 retirements over two General Elections (admittedly, covering 10 years rather than 8) is quite a lot for a party of around 50-60, isn't it?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100255738/george-osbornes-whack-a-mole-tactic-is-denying-labour-any-advantage/
1997 was the LDs break-thru election. 18 > 46 seats.
(I actually went to that conference, but my train got delayed and I only arrived in time to stand outside while they voted it through).
But that's not what I meant - a significant amount of their support was from NOTA voters. It was participating in the cut-and-thrust of UK politics, giving Lab-Con a bit of a bloody nose (of sorts), while not having to deal with the implications still less responsibility of power. But then they ended up in power and the events I described above transpired.
The power to bring down the coalition is a recognition of the fact that in the end both sides are equal since they both can do it. From there you then argue your case and don't immediately presume that the only way forward is to then act like the election was fought under PR and any deal must reflect that kind of thinking. He could have done any number different things but he made his choice because that's what it was. A choice. A choice between thousands of different policies, many different ways to make up the coalition (or opt for something else) and how responsibility was then parcelled out. What he wasn't was powerless. He set the tone and the policy direction and all else that has followed has followed because of those decisions. The reason he is in such trouble is because of those choices and because it's far too late now to suddenly pretend he didn't make them.
We can never be certain of what might have been if he had made other choices but we do know they were his to make and that he as leader was responsible for those he has made.
1) The old national government involved all MPs in decision-making.
2) The new EU government only involves the MPs (and mainly only of the majority party) in selecting the delegates for the supreme soviet (aka Council of Ministers / Commissioners).
So as the balance of decision making and power has shifted to the supreme soviet from the now pretend national governments the MPs in the national parliaments become increasingly meaningless.
If Europhiles were honest the national elections would elect a temporary parliament to select delegates to the supreme soviet and then disband until next time - as that is effectively their sole role - but if Europhiles were honest the rebel alliance would be 80% in the polls.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/10586902/Nick-Clegg-will-call-Lord-Rennards-bluff-over-legal-action.html
I think West Ham are about 30,000/1 to qualify
I've spoken to every voter who put a cross in the LibDem box because it was a NOTA vote. And they confirm my theory.
I apologise if you and some of your fellow "true" LibDems thought every LD vote was a sincere and enthusiastic vote for a LD govt but it wasn't and ain't so. Sorry to break it to you.
France 0.9% : "policy uncertainty is weighing on growth"
I do not know of the numbers but if 4 = 11% there were presumably 38 women elected in 2010 for the tories. If so, then 34 of them are having another go.
It would be a little unfair to say that someone is stirring here and no doubt there are the usual questions as to whether a back bench MPs job can be made more interesting and the House less misogynist. But some sort of perspective is perhaps called for.
UK was 2.4%, China 7.7%, US 2%, Germany 1.3% and France (according to that report, which related to the rumoured hike by the IMF in its UK forecast) had growth of just 0.2%.
So... has France been increased significantly?
MPs fall into two broad categories:
1. Those who aspire to / expect to / do govern; and
2. Lobby fodder whose role in life is to vote and to be their constituents’ agony aunt
Most people entering politics do so with 1 in mind but most MPs are in the second category. And the second category can’t be that uplifting. I’m surprised more MPs don’t quit – the otherwise employable and smart ones anyway. Stopping second careers for MPs would turn a dribble of exits into a flood and we’d end up with the House full of dullard backbenchers (as opposed to today’s mixed lot).
NPXMP (if you’re here) – how rewarding is role 2 really? I’m sure being in the House at PMQs and the odd committee meeting were cool, but day in day out?
http://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/global-economy-watch/gew-projections.jhtml
Elsewhere this man makes a career with such amazing insights...
Owen Jones@OwenJones841 min
@DAaronovitch @georgeeaton If I was a Scottish Nat I'd want nothing more than Cameron to debate Salmond!
I wonder how much campaigning plans are being put on hold due to the Scottish referendum. Whilst No seems likelier to win, the question (and potential Yes) does mean that the parties can't really get stuck in until they know whether the country will have 10% going walkies in a few years.
"The people have spoken, the b*******"
Never a truer word.
Churchill: I defeated Nazism and saved the democratic world....
'45 electorate: Don't forget to close the door after you....
She makes a very valid point. There are those famous "hard working families" of course but the tory party should remember its roots as the party not just of landowners but shopkeepers, small businessmen (and women) and the aspirational classes who want a property owning democracy. They are what Thatcher tapped into.
There are more self employed in this country than ever before and we have an excellent record in new business formation. Tory ministers do not talk about this nearly enough and let the perception that they are all about big business and even big government take hold.
3. Lobbying government from the backbenchers to adopt specific policies (or at least, promoting those views with the aim of winning wider support among those who might form a government).
Compare to Julie Elliott MP, Sunderland Central. She hasn't rebelled once. Can she seriously agree with EVERYTHING Ed Miliband says ? What a brown-noser !
The UK's 2014 growth was upped by 0.6%, Spain's by 0.4%, Germany's by 0.2%. By contrast France is held flat, and Italy is revised downwards by 0.1%.
So: the IMF expects
Germany to grow 1.6% in 2014
UK 2.4%
France 0.9%
Spain 0.6%
Italy 0.6%
I suspect the UK will be nearer 3% for the year. I would expect France to be somewhat worse - perhaps 0.1-0.2%. I think the Germany and Italy numbers are about right, and I would be very surprised if Spain wasn't north of 2% growth by year end.
China is forecast to grow 7.5% in 2014. I'm going to go out on a limb, and predict 4-4.5%, with the economy being particularly anaemic in the fourth quarter (maybe actually down quarter-on-quarter.) This will be a drag on Japan where Abenomics seems to be losing traction, and the government has completely failed to implement any of the structural changes suggested, I would expect the real number will be nearer 1% than the 1.7% predicted.
The IMF is expecting 2.8% for the US, and I think that is probably a little bit pessimistic. I would be more bullish on Canada too.
Sky Sources: Ex-Lib Dem Chief Exec Lord #Rennard starts legal proceedings to challenge disciplinary action by party over harassment claims
Today the CBI has published an index of manufacturer's intentions to increase investment and reported that it had reached its highest level for three years. The index for intentions to increase capital expenditure on buildings rose to -1 in the quarter to January 2014 from -20. Similar increases were recorded for intentions to invest in new machinery.
Rising investment confidence was underpinned by reports by manufacturers of an increase in new orders (index up to 13 from 6), the highest level since April 2012.
This upbeat news from the CBI contrasts with Germany's ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim, who reported its index of investor expectations had fallen slightly from 61.7 in January from a seven-year high of 62 in December. Whilst the German figures undershot economist expectations and headed down rather than up, they still showed reasonably robust prospects in Germany.
Both the UK and Germany are managing to keep ahead of the rest of the EU by servicing growth in domestic demand rather than through increased exports. The rest of the EU remains weak and intra EU trade is contracting, even after allowing for the welcome recovery of the restructured peripheral economies.
The need for the EU to recover was a second theme of Broadbent's speech. He argued that increased demand from the EU for UK exports was the second main condition needed for the UK to sustain its current recovery. EU reoovery may well be happening but it is still painfully slow and fragile with France, the EU's second largest economy, going backward rather than forward.
Even the CBI survey picked up the clouds. On a monthly basis, the index for UK factory orders in January fell to minus 2 from 12 in the previous month as a similar index export orders dropped 27 points to minus 16.
It is time for St George to set forth on the continent to slay the EU dragon.
"Lord Rennard is to seek a court injunction to lift his suspension by the Liberal Democrats as the dispute within the party deepens.
The peer had his membership temporarily suspended after he refused to apologise over sexual harassment claims.
But the peer will seek a court order within days to try and halt disciplinary proceedings against him."
That said, with the Chinese economy slowing, I would be super cautious on all capital goods exporting countries. Germany and Sweden have been big beneficiaries of China's investment boom. If that begins to slow, that will severely impact those countries. For that reason, I suspect that the IMF German GDP numbers may be slightly too optimistic for 2014.
(except in English tory/lib dem marginals, of course).
Rennard doesn't understand that this is not just a legal argument. It is also about the politics and the human dimension. Even the Courts will consider how equitable the Lib Dem process was, taking account of the sexual harrassment evidence (regardless of intent not being proved) as well as how Rennard has been treated.
Nearby there's Trowell (home to the M1 services), which, when spoken, sounds like it's the home to the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast.
We ought to have a dialect thread on PB, where we all type in our local dialect:
That Clegg, e's a reet blather-yadded bogger, bletherin' on 'bout 'nowt. Ah dosst 'im ter jump in'ter cut.
Desperate news for Britain's big charities......
Difficult though it might be to believe, there are still, mainly rural, parts of the Midlands where he is still remains unrecognised as Our Saviour.
One of the strangest facets of Chinese manufacturing hegemony is the increase in their share of the global markets for building stones. Quarries in Brazil and Africa export uncut slabs to China who buy cutting equipment from Italy and re-export the processed stone back to the Americas or to Europe.
Surely this must be one of the most economically and environmentally absurd shifts in trade known to history.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 30s
Friends of @LordRennard accuse party president @timfarron of deliberately scuppering attempts to broker peace deal @LibDems
Were some votes NOTA votes sure, were they a NOTA party, rubbish.
Mars the new gap yah destination?
I guess its a riposte to those stats from Oxfam earlier in the week about the 84 wealthiest people and the poorest half of the world.
Turns out there may not even be an Oxfam in 25 years!!
Interesting article in yesterday's Times by Matt Ridley pointing out the link between polygamy and violent societies, mainly because of the fact that if one man has, say, five wives, it means that five men won't be able to find a wife, which inevitably leads to violence.
a) he keeps the Coalition in the (bad) news for ages
b) he pushes anymore leftie Lib waverers into Labour's arms*
*or so you would think from reading this blog. I suspect it will make little difference
It's all gone now, sadly. The paper mill closed in 2005.
(p.s. I expect alot of the grief in the Muslim world ultimately comes, IMHO, from sexual and alcohol frustration. Alot of poor and hopeless young men who don't have the option to distract themselves with booze or getting the leg over).
Must be even worse for the muslim lads in Britain. Imagine listening to your white/black peers tales of drunken abandon and sexual conquest.
And then having to listen to them taking the p8ss out of you...
"Stop Holiday companies charging extra in school holidays":
http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/46455
Sources close to @timfarron say asking ACAS to mediate in @LordRennard dispute was "a non runner" cos not an employee of @libdemsparty
Details
norman smith @BBCNormanS 7m
Lib Dem president @timfarron dismisses claims he wanted @LordRennard expelled from the party as "total rubbish"