Categories
It’s very hard to see Truss doing a U-Turn – politicalbetting.com
It’s very hard to see Truss doing a U-Turn – politicalbetting.com
People are saying Wednesday’s speech is the most difficult of Liz Truss’ life. It’s actually the easiest. She either dumps the 45p tax cut, or her and her party are finished > Mail on Sunday > https://t.co/fSWi9mNJHh
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Easi Easi .... !
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1576576694168694787
So, the advisors thinks it's bad, MPs think it's bad, the markets think it's bad and voters think it's bad.
That leaves Truss...
eg Grand Juries.
Now back on the roof for me.
Then she can focus on energy bills and supporting Ukraine. She might even wear a new necklace.
Now I am not so sure. I think she is daring Tory MPs to VONC her. Then her narrative will not be "I folded under pressure" but "I was betrayed"
Truly, continuity BoZo...
Remind me, how did that work out last time?
Fine Gael 21% (nc)
Fianna Fáil 17% (+1)
Greens 4% (+2)
People Before Profit/Solidarity 4% (-1)
Labour 3% (nc)
Aontú 3% (nc)
Social Democrats 3% (-1)
others/independents 8% (-3)
(Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent; 1,254; 1 October)
“You elected me leader to carry out these policies not the policies of back-stabbing Sunak which I entirely disagree with but actually he’s right and I was full of shit and I’m delighted to have the back-stabber trying to save my premiership.”
If she had to appoint the man to rescue her to impose the policies he proposed during the leadership campaign it would make her election as leader completely morally invalid and would make Verstappen’s championship win last season seem like a fair result.
They might as well try the line of, "We can't allow the UK to become uncompetitive, otherwise the opportunities we want for your children won't be there." At the moment the problem is that people think they just want to give a bung to the rich rather than there being any strategic thinking behind it (even if people disagree with the logic).
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1576586712519962624
Tax cuts produce growth. She holds that truth to be self-evident.
So much so that she hasn't evinced a single argument as to HOW this happens. It just does.
Truss's only hope - from her perspective - is to persist, and pray that her policies pay off. The chances of that are slender to zero, because the markets have lost confidence in her, so she will have to pay too much to borrow, and so on, and so forth. Of course if she does succeed, yay for UK PLC
However, because she is 98% likely to fail badly, the Tories - from their perspective - should probably get rid of her, install Sunak (or whoever) and try and minimise their defeat in 2024
"I must tell the house that I have asked Ms Truss for a number of guarantees, for both the unity of our great party and country, and such that our great nation continues to enjoy the confidence of financial markets, and the economic security and well-being, of us all, is protected. I must tell you now that no such guarantees have been received, and that consequently the Conservative Party is at war with itself".
‘…One exception is Leanne Stratford, a teacher who rooted for Truss over Sunak. She estimates that her mortgage payments could double, but doesn’t think that will stop her voting Tory again…’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/02/ive-lost-confidence-in-them-but-i-dont-know-if-i-can-switch-tories-in-west-midlands-face-voting-dilemma
This could be called "The Putin dynamic". It's also the situation the Japanese military regime faced in the 1940s, where they continued to persist at ever greater cost, not feeling they could reverse course and survive politically. But inevitably it results in catastrophe.
In addition, the need for the BoE to put up interest rates so far is not because of the Government's actions, it is because of the Fed putting up interest rates and thus driving everyone to raise them, as well as rising inflation, which is a factor amongst other things of the BoE QE programme.
If you are going to call people fucking morons, actually get it right what is the Government's fault and what isn't.
No 1.62
Yes 2.37
Yes 8/11
No Evs
O/T but this is even better than Jewish space lasers. Hurricane Ian was apparently caused by the Deep State, using Weather Manipulation.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/far-right-pundits-baselessly-claim-hurricane-ian-was-created-by-the-deep-state-to-target-gov-ron-desantis-and-other-red-states-they-are-angry-with-us/ar-AA12tIY9?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9172466c80d24d82aeafea621a28b3fb#comments
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1576593570924236800
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1576555310982266886
This has gone down very very badly with some MPs, who remind me that Truss only won the support of 50 MPs in the first round, and never won majority support despite being nailed onto win. So her base already wobbly on parliamentary party. Has she the authority to threaten MPs?
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1576590418879225857
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1576303576581914625
These idiots should put paid to the idea that Libertarianism is worth trying...
The bit you are missing is that she hasn't the depth or understanding of economics to see why her 'theories' are so shaky. She is in no position to debate a topic she doesn't understand. All she can do is parrot what she's been told and say that it is just a question of believing and sticking to one's guns. She is of moderate intellect, and apt to substitute obstinacy for understanding, hoping to pass it off as 'principle'.
On an entirely different and much more important subject, are we going to see your hero's longstanding goalscoring record beaten at last? This kid Haarland....he's a bit useful!
Since Truss needs to reassure people that her plans a) work, and b) she has put in the work to make it work, that regular option may be quite difficult, since they've had to admit to, in essence, phoning it in thus far.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/10/singapore-post-race-analysis-2022.html
We're getting some decent new posters here lately. Where have they been hiding?
The benefits will appear. Eventually. If you just believe hard enough.
Like Brexit...
For example, initial estimates were that the economy contracted by 7.2% in 2009. That's now revised up to a contraction of 4.2%. And, remember tim's glee at the "recession" of 2012, well, it never happened. In fact, the economy grew by 1.5% that year, not stellar, but a long way from a recession.
Looking at the longer term, GDP per head grew by 1% per annum, from 2000-09, and 1.2% per annum from 2010-19, which is not terrible by rich world standards over that period, but very poor compared to the whole period 1970-99, where the average was 2.5% per annum.
Contrary to what was believed at the time, the Seventies and Eighties were a time of fast economic growth. It slowed a bit in the Nineties, but was still a decent 2.1% per head, per annum.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locations=GB
Nobody is better at impersonating how presidents and PMs walk than Stefan Leonhardsberger.
His Macron, Johnson, Trudeau and Zelensky are all on point.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1576534616382447617
Every one of us has an ideology - for what it's worth, mine is quite libertarian. By and large, I believe prosperity and freedom comes from a smaller state, with less intervention, and greater personal choice.
But though I'm guided by my beliefs, I understand they have to be tempered by how those ideas work in reality. You have to be pragmatic - adapting your ideology to the problems facing the country today. My instincts are naturally free market, for example -- but free markets don't function properly in a wartime economy. So I look at other solutions. That's why I'm not averse to say a windfall tax, or even outright nationalisation of the energy industry.
Truss and Co have walked into government as if they're fantasy football fanatics who have somehow miraculously been handed the top job at a premier league club. They've been salivating about their fantasy team for years, now they're going to play it out - consequences be damned.
They are ideological zealots - and to a hammer, the whole world looks like a nail.
They have only their ideology at their disposal - and they intend to beat us about the head with it, because it is the only tool they know.
There is no compromise, no pragmatism, no common sense. That is why they are a terrible government, and have to go.
The sort of policy decisions they're coming up with belong in an ideological think tank, not a pragmatic government that needs to accept compromise, and requires a democratic mandate.
Thatcher had political capital and an economy to back up what she wanted (apparently, I wasn't there) when she held firm. Boris was coming in at a moment when the public wanted Brexit done, he was promising he could do that, and the polls backed up that the party would win an election if they followed through with him - so his withdrawing the whip was because, despite lack of majority, he was in a position of personal strength.
Truss has an economy already in the shitter, made worse by her plans, and MPs have no reason at this point to think she is the one to save them all were there an election, in fact quite the opposite.
And yes. He's right on pace. A record I never thought I'd see threatened. He's not in the World Cup either.
But I think it's madness to be cutting my taxes, while reducing benefits in real terms, during the middle of a cost of living crisis.
If I was going to do something for higher earners, it would be getting rid of the ridiculous stuff around £100k with the removal of the tax free allowance, etc.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/oct/02/luxury-flats-richest-people-social-housing-hinduja-old-war-office
'"The Hinduja brothers, named by the Sunday Times as the wealthiest people in Britain with a £28.5bn fortune, won approval to develop the historic Old War Office near Downing Street into 85 luxury flats and a 120-room five-star Raffles hotel.
The Guardian can reveal that the OWO development – in which one four bedroom flat has sold for more than £40m – should under planning rules contain 8,000 square metres of affordable housing – enough for 98 flats.
However, Westminster city council agreed to allow the Hindujas to develop the building with no affordable housing after their agents claimed that it would “not be economically feasible” to do so. [...]
The documents show that the OWO development on Whitehall has a “7870.75sqm shortfall in affordable housing” and “the policy compliant payment generated by the scheme is £39.6m”.
However, the Hindujas’ agent offered only a “£10m contribution” to the affordable housing fund. At the time of the application in 2017, the then Conservative-run council’s “viability consultant” said the suggested donation was “generous”.'
They don’t have any interest in the subject in any more depth than that. Rather, there comes a sort of moral superiority with thinking “Hmm, you say you want society to be fairer, and I agree, but these two lines on this graph show why it can’t be.” It makes certain people feel like they’re in an ‘in-group’.
It’s akin to the moralising atheists that were far more annoying online than any religious people in the earlier days of the internet. And I say this as a non-religious person myself. Thinking you’ve cracked the secret to everything when in reality you’re barely scratching the surface.
When there are things going on, this has to be one of the best forums on the 'net.
We would, unfortunately, not raise enough tax to cover more than a fraction of spending.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-tories-against-the-45p-tax-cut
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Rr77qd/aftonbladet-direkt?pinnedEntry=963887
It is far, far beyond anything I’ve seen in the last few years, even on issues like Brexit.
These are the exact sort of people who either claim to be non-political (and vote Tory) or outwardly say they are Tories. If they vote elsewhere, or don’t vote at all, in the sort of numbers it seems like they are indicating right now, the stonking Labour majorities that this week’s polls have predicted might not look so crazy.
And even if they ditch Truss, I’m really not sure what the Tories can offer under PM Sunak or PM Wallace to this group of voters. The culture war stuff is running dry. The ‘Coalition of Chaos’ doesn’t seem so scary after this…Chaos. Starmer looks far more attractive as a leader than Corbyn. And the Brexit divide isn’t as much of an issue as in 2019 anymore. It really doesn’t take much.
The NHS is way past the creaking and groaning stage. It's a heap of rubble.
I disagree with the windfall tax idea and nationalisation will do nothing to ease the energy crisis - both, in the medium term will exacerbate the issues - but in times of war and crisis sometimes you have to do things for short term survival that may have longer term negative effects.
If nothing else, the fact that Truss and co see this as an opportunity to push their ideology irrespective of the cost shows how unfit for office they are.
Would like to see his Truss, but he'd better hurry.
Because why sell an additional barrel if it isn't going to add to your post tax profits?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/02/liz-truss-news-kwarteng-conservative-party-conference-2022-updates/ https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1576593154207514624/photo/1