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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wythenshawe look as though it will take place in mid-February
Clearly, as saw in Eastleigh, the candidate can make a massive difference. That election was UKIP’s best performance ever in a Westminster seat and a lot of that was down to the quality of their candidate, Diane James. I can’t see her or Nigel Farage being tempted by the upcoming challenge.
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http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#
They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.
On the one hand, he reads (and is told) that he's much more popular than his party and enjoys very strong levels of support from Conservative voters. At one point, it was nigh on 100%. On the other hand, his leadership has been characterised by the haemorrhaging of party members, activists and he is none too popular with plenty of his backbenchers either.
The simple conclusion is to say it's one or t'other and, naturally, you'd think the Cameroons would plump for the voters, thank you very much.
But the problem is that it's not that simple. A leader will always make enemies, and almost always progressively less popular as time goes by, but a good and perceptive leader would recognise that these choices are not mutually exclusive. The polite, patient and respective engagement of the party and its supporters - building support for each initiative, making the case and, most importantly, time for them - does not need to come at the cost of relative popularity amongst the voters at large.
It's called leadership, and good leaders don't dictate. They inspire and excite the building of a broad coalition to follow them.
FPT: Backed Ferrer to beat Berdych (2.46 on Betfair). He's got 7:4 winning record, 4:2 on hard courts. Not certain by any stretch but I think he should be odds on.
The speech "addresses two key questions relevant to the current debate over the economic recovery. Why have real wages declined, and should we expect them to pick up? And does the composition of growth today tell us anything about growth in the future? "
Broadbent is intervening in the public debate on the UK's economic recovery by questioning false media assumptions before they become memes. The two main ones he targets are:
1. that the current economic recovery is being driven by consumption and that lack of real wages growth will see growth peter out once household savings have been spent; and,
2. that the failure of business investment to recover in line with consumption indicates the 2013 recovery is built on sand.
On the first point, he states that consumption costs since the crisis (what consumers pay for goods and services) have grown far faster (11%) than producer profits (which derive from what factories and service providers get paid for the output consumed (2%). He argues this imbalance is due to one off factors (increase in indirect taxes, e.g. VAT rise, and, growth in global commodity prices outpacing those of services which he sees as cyclical and reversible). He argues this imbalance is now starting to reverse and that this trend will continue.
On the second point, he argues that business investment tends to lag rather than lead a cyclical revival in output and that recent readings of key UK metrics indicates that investment is poised to recover in line with previous recoveries from recession.
Broadbent identifies increased productivity and a recovery in Eurozone growth are far more critical to the sustainability of UK growth than any inference which might be derived from an analysis of the composition of current growth.
This is an important speech. Reading between the lines it suggests that the BoE are taking a more optimistic position on UK growth prospects than the OBR, with the difference between the two being that the BoE considers the limiting size of the UK economy's "output gap" being less significant than other factors.
It also suggests that the BoE MPC may be about to give more weight to recovery in productivity than employment when determining the right time to increase interest rates. I would argue this is less of a change of policy than a realisation that the BoE were misguided to make the unemployment rate their public target when moving to forward guidance. Targetting low unemployment as a target is simpler for the public to understand and easier to support than a productivity goal but even at the time forward guidance was announced as policy it was clear productivity was seen as the more important measure of the two.
Anyway, for those interested, here is the link to the full speech:
http://bit.ly/1e6ZrYY
No. In the council seats that the LDs were strong in - some of the Wythenshawe ones where they received a fair proportion of public sector worker support - their vote has collapsed since 2010.
I'd reckon 2nd place will be between the Tories and UKIP although I've no idea how close they will be. Certainly easy Labour win overall.
Urgent review ordered following the death of a patient who waited over four hours in an ambulance outside hospital in Bridgend
Don't get ill in Wales....
The Conservative Party seems to have all three of these in. How can he lead such a disparate group? It's impossible.
No, I don't really care either.
And as a handy route to invade France, obviously.
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_play.php?game_id=74363
FPT.
AndyJS said:
Rennard statement:
https://www.facebook.com/peter.hayes.3781/posts/10203078809316850
-----------------------------------
Rennard say's in his statement that he is a sick man. That may be, but the statement itself is sick; made by a seemingly sick mind. He even talks of self harming his own person, as well a sobbing about how hard done by he is. Rather disgusting; rather than taking it like a man, he bawls like a baby.
LD retained 53% of 2010 Vote
Con 50%
Labour 79%
UKIP 599%
Rotherham
LD 8%
Con 18%
Lab 59%
UKIP 209%
Corby
LD 23%
Con 41%
Lab 82%
UKIP 5108 votes from standing start
OE&S
LD 79%
Con 38%
Lab 104%
UKIP 118%
Middlesbrough
LD 25%
Con 17%
Lab 66%
UKIP 161%
South Shields
LD 7%
Con 36%
Lab 66%
UKIP 5988 votes from standing start
Which constituency, if any, of these does W&SE resemble?
Comparing a ward from Altrincham & Sale West with Wythenshawe & Sale East would be a bit like drawing comparisons between Sutton Coldfield and Birmingham Erdington.
"corporeal said:
» show previous quotes
Richard.
The inquiry found that the only aspect with insufficient evidence was whether he acted intentionally.
An apology was warranted even if he unintentionally caused distress."
'The inquiry found...'
There was no inquiry. The Investigator found there was insufficient evidence to warrant an inquiry as to whether Rennard had brought the party into disrepute.
Now he has been suspended, pending inquiry whether he has brought the party into disrepute....
Kafka couldn't have invented that one.
Don't forget beer, mussels and chips with mayonaise.
Mr. Antifrank, I'm not much a drinker and have never read a Tintin story. Best chips I can recall having were from a fish and chip shop near Windermere. Bloody tons of chips, which were quite delicious.
Mr. Lennon, I shall have to take your word for it.
Still a lot of onions in there - bring a tear to a glass eye it would - poor wee hard done by Chris ....
Cameron had (and still has) a group of people advising him who misread the factors that led to Blair's rise to power in 1997. They don't really understand - and, frankly, were never bright enough to understand - the New Labour 'Project'. These people genuinely thought that being actively contemptuous of Conservative party members and activists was an election winning strategy.
So much of Cameron's problem boils down to a basic lack of courtesy and disrespect shown to his troops. There's no reason this couldn't have been maintained whilst pursuing a reform agenda, but he chose not to.
In what other organisation (in the private, or public sector) would a successful change initiative rest on such a ridiculous premise?
So even if you take him as acting unintentionally, an apology would be warranted.
Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman 4m
Another statement on the way from Lord Rennard later today.
The problem I see with using productivity rather than employment as a basis for action is that the productivity statistics are very unreliable and subject to substantial revisions. The unemployment figures are also subject to revision but not nearly by such a large amount.
Our productivity numbers have also been subject to significant exceptional factors. By far the largest of these has been the precipitate fall in north sea oil production over the last few years. This has made our productivity figures look much worse than they are on an underlying basis. If you start to make allowances for such uncertainty and possible revisions you do not have a meaningful basis for forward guidance.
It may be that the Bank has had second thoughts about forward guidance and is content that it disappears into a King style form of obfustication but I doubt it. I think we will stick with employment and that the first rise in rates will be this year unless the EZ goes into another spin.
Lab 46.5
UKIP 26.5
Con 12.5
LD 11.5
re-shoring is the new off-shoring or haven't you heard ?
Lab 59% Paul Goggins Labour 17,987 = 10612
And the maximum of UKIP
599% Christopher Cassidy UKIP 1,405 = 8415
Then UKIP still doesn't win...
For that to be a 6-1 shot is utterly, utterly ridiculous.
As for the party and its membership: it's impossible to square that circle. When you have people putting getting out of Europe as number one priority, whilst others are firmly Europhile, then you can't give both sides what they want. There has to be compromise. And some BOOers want no compromise. To some of them, Europe is the most important issue facing Britain, which shows how utterly out of whack their priorities are.
I see more disrespect from so-called Conservatives to Cameron than Cameron has shown towards them. If anything, he's been remarkably tolerant. Just look at the hatred some right-wingers on here show towards him.
They haven't forgiven him for beating David Davis.
He's also in coalition with a pre-EU party. He has a difficult course to sail.
So lets say
Lab 45.5
UKIP 26.5
Con 11.5
LD 10.5
Revealed after the break....
Do hope its not his "the girls in the office will be pleased " re Its Raining Men
EDI: He said working mums are worth less to employers than men
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01q7rzn
The charge was 'bringing the party into disrepute.'
The Investigator found insufficient evidence to even warrant an inquiry into the charge.
Then he appeared to substitute his own charge, the Newspeak "invading the autonomy..." bollocks, and insinuate guilt of that instead, inventing a sanction off the top of his head. It was not his place to do any of these things under the party's own rules.
Now they're trying to hang Rennard for simply not paying heed to this nonsense.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/5487561/Wythenshawe-And-Sale-East-By-Election.html
Betfair don't seem to have a market yet.
Fighing for second places is something for UKIP.
The LDs will come 4th or 5th and it doesn't matter an iota. This is first past the post.
I agree that the nebulous nature of productivity only allows for measurement by divining stick but it is still more transparent process than calculating an output gap and using that metric as a basis for forward growth forecasts.
It is interesting that the BoE have stopped publishing their estimate of the output gap. The Old Lady of Threadneedle street is obviously at war with the upstart Chote.
On the next interest rate rise the markets and economics commentators seem broadly aligned on the end of second quarter 2015 as the timing of the first 0.25% rise in rates. So you are on an outsider if you think it will happen this year.
I guess the next time this becomes an hot issue will be in the month following a fiscal stimulus budget. If 2014 Q1 GDP growth, to be announced in April, comes in at mid 2013 levels or higher (eg. 0.8%+ rather than the OBR forecast of 0.5%) then there will be significant market speculation that there will be a 2014 rise however much Carney and Osborne will want to find reasons for delaying it.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox
Interesting that this is an east/west issue. You don't get many of those in UK politics (or UK anything else, come to that).
FWIW, My best estimate is something to the effect of:
Lab 36%
UKIP 28%
Con 17%
LD 5%
As an aside, a neighbour of mine related a story from Sale town centre last weekend: he was accosted by a green party activist who broke off her haranguing of the UKIP party man who was setting up nearby to ask my friend his opinions on fracking. She then spent three minutes telling him why he was wrong before his three-year-old daughter came to the rescue by bellowing 'I'm bored!' and hitting the green party activist in the face with a balloon from Argos. Pavement politics is clearly alive and well in Wythenshawe and Sale East.
That said, the Lib Dem strategy is one that means they can never win an election, and indeed are getting further away from it as future target seats slip further away.
Not sure I agree that failure is free of consequences.
http://www.gildenburgh.com/
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Erewash-MP-Jessica-Lee-stand-ahead-General/story-20467645-detail/story.html
Bad news for the Tories who probably needed a first-time incumbency boost to hold the seat, which is next door to Broxtowe.
Quincel declined from a Lib Dem Lost deposit bet too...
There wasn't an actual charge. There was an investigation into the allegations against Lord Rennard.
The outcome of the investigation was that the allegations of Rennard's behaviour were broadly credible, but that intent wasn't provable.
(and saying he substituted his own charge is inaccurate, the broad charge would have been bringing the party into disrepute by way of the specific actions referenced by Webster)
There wasn't a charge, there wasn't a sanction. There was an investigation, and based on the outcome of the investigation Rennard's behaviour, even if unintentional, warranted (at the least) an apology. (Or to be accurate, they're now looking into whether not apologising for the behaviour is grounds for a charge).
I suspect the 3-1 on CON might be value anyway but I'm not sure...
That's my reasoning behind the bet.
Con: 39.5%
Lab: 34.2%
LD: 17.5%
BNP: 4.9%
UKIP: 1.8%
Green: 1.1%
Ind: 1%
Much less so amongst Conservative voters from 2010.
AndyJS said:
Rennard statement:
https://www.facebook.com/peter.hayes.3781/posts/10203078809316850
-----------------------------------
Rennard say's in his statement that he is a sick man. That may be, but the statement itself is sick; made by a seemingly sick mind. He even talks of self harming his own person, as well a sobbing about how hard done by he is. Rather disgusting; rather than taking it like a man, he bawls like a baby.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/fairness-in-the-first-year/
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-illegitimacy-klaxon/
It raises some interesting issues as to the BBC's role, as well as its strong support for the London Government.
Has politics ever been this diverse?