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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wythenshawe look as though it will take place in mid-Februa

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wythenshawe look as though it will take place in mid-February

Clearly, as saw in Eastleigh, the candidate can make a massive difference. That election was UKIP’s best performance ever in a Westminster seat and a lot of that was down to the quality of their candidate, Diane James. I can’t see her or Nigel Farage being tempted by the upcoming challenge.

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Comments

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @MikeSmithson What would your under/over UKIP vote % number be?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Realistically I can see only 2 choices for UKIP candidate - Chris Cassidy or Paul Nuttall. If I were them I would go with Chris Cassidy assuming that he is willing and will cope with the media attention.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2014
    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Two very small bets on Lib Dems (33-1) & Conservatives (3-1) coming second for me. This is the Northwest, about as far from the Eastern UKIP strongholds as you can get.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    isam said:

    @MikeSmithson What would your under/over UKIP vote % number be?

    21-25?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    I'm in for 50p on that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    FPT - On topic, I'm not sure Cameron has learnt yet (or will ever learn) how to handle seemingly contrary evidence.

    On the one hand, he reads (and is told) that he's much more popular than his party and enjoys very strong levels of support from Conservative voters. At one point, it was nigh on 100%. On the other hand, his leadership has been characterised by the haemorrhaging of party members, activists and he is none too popular with plenty of his backbenchers either.

    The simple conclusion is to say it's one or t'other and, naturally, you'd think the Cameroons would plump for the voters, thank you very much.

    But the problem is that it's not that simple. A leader will always make enemies, and almost always progressively less popular as time goes by, but a good and perceptive leader would recognise that these choices are not mutually exclusive. The polite, patient and respective engagement of the party and its supporters - building support for each initiative, making the case and, most importantly, time for them - does not need to come at the cost of relative popularity amongst the voters at large.

    It's called leadership, and good leaders don't dictate. They inspire and excite the building of a broad coalition to follow them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Who will be the Voter's Valentine/Cupid's Candidate/Eros' Election-winner?

    FPT: Backed Ferrer to beat Berdych (2.46 on Betfair). He's got 7:4 winning record, 4:2 on hard courts. Not certain by any stretch but I think he should be odds on.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    2/5 for UKIP to come second is way too short.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    A very important and interesting speech was made at the LSE last Friday by Ben Broadbent, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.

    The speech "addresses two key questions relevant to the current debate over the economic recovery. Why have real wages declined, and should we expect them to pick up? And does the composition of growth today tell us anything about growth in the future? "

    Broadbent is intervening in the public debate on the UK's economic recovery by questioning false media assumptions before they become memes. The two main ones he targets are:

    1. that the current economic recovery is being driven by consumption and that lack of real wages growth will see growth peter out once household savings have been spent; and,

    2. that the failure of business investment to recover in line with consumption indicates the 2013 recovery is built on sand.

    On the first point, he states that consumption costs since the crisis (what consumers pay for goods and services) have grown far faster (11%) than producer profits (which derive from what factories and service providers get paid for the output consumed (2%). He argues this imbalance is due to one off factors (increase in indirect taxes, e.g. VAT rise, and, growth in global commodity prices outpacing those of services which he sees as cyclical and reversible). He argues this imbalance is now starting to reverse and that this trend will continue.

    On the second point, he argues that business investment tends to lag rather than lead a cyclical revival in output and that recent readings of key UK metrics indicates that investment is poised to recover in line with previous recoveries from recession.

    Broadbent identifies increased productivity and a recovery in Eurozone growth are far more critical to the sustainability of UK growth than any inference which might be derived from an analysis of the composition of current growth.

    This is an important speech. Reading between the lines it suggests that the BoE are taking a more optimistic position on UK growth prospects than the OBR, with the difference between the two being that the BoE considers the limiting size of the UK economy's "output gap" being less significant than other factors.

    It also suggests that the BoE MPC may be about to give more weight to recovery in productivity than employment when determining the right time to increase interest rates. I would argue this is less of a change of policy than a realisation that the BoE were misguided to make the unemployment rate their public target when moving to forward guidance. Targetting low unemployment as a target is simpler for the public to understand and easier to support than a productivity goal but even at the time forward guidance was announced as policy it was clear productivity was seen as the more important measure of the two.

    Anyway, for those interested, here is the link to the full speech:

    http://bit.ly/1e6ZrYY
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited January 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    I'm in for 50p on that.

    No. In the council seats that the LDs were strong in - some of the Wythenshawe ones where they received a fair proportion of public sector worker support - their vote has collapsed since 2010.

    I'd reckon 2nd place will be between the Tories and UKIP although I've no idea how close they will be. Certainly easy Labour win overall.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    antifrank said:

    2/5 for UKIP to come second is way too short.

    Agreed !
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Chris Wimpress ‏@ChrisWimpress 3 mins
    Urgent review ordered following the death of a patient who waited over four hours in an ambulance outside hospital in Bridgend

    Don't get ill in Wales....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    FPT - On topic, I'm not sure Cameron has learnt yet (or will ever learn) how to handle seemingly contrary evidence.

    On the one hand, he reads (and is told) that he's much more popular than his party and enjoys very strong levels of support from Conservative voters. At one point, it was nigh on 100%. On the other hand, his leadership has been characterised by the haemorrhaging of party members, activists and he is none too popular with plenty of his backbenchers either.

    The simple conclusion is to say it's one or t'other and, naturally, you'd think the Cameroons would plump for the voters, thank you very much.

    But the problem is that it's not that simple. A leader will always make enemies, and almost always progressively less popular as time goes by, but a good and perceptive leader would recognise that these choices are not mutually exclusive. The polite, patient and respective engagement of the party and its supporters - building support for each initiative, making the case and, most importantly, time for them - does not need to come at the cost of relative popularity amongst the voters at large.

    It's called leadership, and good leaders don't dictate. They inspire and excite the building of a broad coalition to follow them.

    It's difficult to lead groups of people who want something fundamentally different. There are some who want Britain out of the EU whatever the cost; there are others (like me) who are pretty much middle-of-the-road and worry about change either way; then there are the Europhiles.

    The Conservative Party seems to have all three of these in. How can he lead such a disparate group? It's impossible.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    I can't read this by-election. I almost always lose money on them, so am staying well out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. 1000, Belgium's only good for chocolates and F1.

    And as a handy route to invade France, obviously.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited January 2014

    Mr. 1000, Belgium's only good for chocolates and F1.

    And as a handy route to invade France, obviously.

    Belgium not invaded in the PB diplomacy game yet. Not very realistic in my opinion !

    http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_play.php?game_id=74363
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Morris_Dancer You're forgetting beer, chips and Tintin.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Curse of the new thread.
    FPT.

    AndyJS said:
    Rennard statement:

    https://www.facebook.com/peter.hayes.3781/posts/10203078809316850
    -----------------------------------
    Rennard say's in his statement that he is a sick man. That may be, but the statement itself is sick; made by a seemingly sick mind. He even talks of self harming his own person, as well a sobbing about how hard done by he is. Rather disgusting; rather than taking it like a man, he bawls like a baby.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2014
    In Eastleigh

    LD retained 53% of 2010 Vote
    Con 50%
    Labour 79%
    UKIP 599%

    Rotherham
    LD 8%
    Con 18%
    Lab 59%
    UKIP 209%

    Corby
    LD 23%
    Con 41%
    Lab 82%
    UKIP 5108 votes from standing start

    OE&S
    LD 79%
    Con 38%
    Lab 104%
    UKIP 118%

    Middlesbrough
    LD 25%
    Con 17%
    Lab 66%
    UKIP 161%

    South Shields
    LD 7%
    Con 36%
    Lab 66%
    UKIP 5988 votes from standing start


    Which constituency, if any, of these does W&SE resemble?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    antifrank said:

    @Morris_Dancer You're forgetting beer, chips and Tintin.

    And arguably the best ever professional cyclist (Eddie Merckx)

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    If I remember correctly, the council seat by-election the other day showed a collapse in the LD vote.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2014
    I don't think you can read too much into the local by-election in the ward in the neighbouring constituency.

    Comparing a ward from Altrincham & Sale West with Wythenshawe & Sale East would be a bit like drawing comparisons between Sutton Coldfield and Birmingham Erdington.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeK said:

    Curse of the new thread.
    FPT.

    AndyJS said:
    Rennard statement:

    https://www.facebook.com/peter.hayes.3781/posts/10203078809316850
    -----------------------------------
    Rennard say's in his statement that he is a sick man. That may be, but the statement itself is sick; made by a seemingly sick mind. He even talks of self harming his own person, as well a sobbing about how hard done by he is. Rather disgusting; rather than taking it like a man, he bawls like a baby.

    Why should someone apologise for something they sincerely believe they haven't done?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2014
    FPT:

    "corporeal said:
    » show previous quotes
    Richard.

    The inquiry found that the only aspect with insufficient evidence was whether he acted intentionally.

    An apology was warranted even if he unintentionally caused distress."


    'The inquiry found...'

    There was no inquiry. The Investigator found there was insufficient evidence to warrant an inquiry as to whether Rennard had brought the party into disrepute.

    Now he has been suspended, pending inquiry whether he has brought the party into disrepute....

    Kafka couldn't have invented that one.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper' moment.

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    @isam - I would suggest a Rotherham / South Shields combination - but suspect that none is a particularly close demographic match.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I'm laying £100 on a UKIP win. My local Paddy Power will take this bet.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Too busy laughing at Ben Broadbent's CV.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lennon said:

    Realistically I can see only 2 choices for UKIP candidate - Chris Cassidy or Paul Nuttall. If I were them I would go with Chris Cassidy assuming that he is willing and will cope with the media attention.

    I have seen Louise Bours name as a potential UKIP candidate
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Mr. 1000, Belgium's only good for chocolates and F1.

    And as a handy route to invade France, obviously.

    MD

    Don't forget beer, mussels and chips with mayonaise.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Lennon said:

    antifrank said:

    @Morris_Dancer You're forgetting beer, chips and Tintin.

    And arguably the best ever professional cyclist (Eddie Merckx)

    Arguably ????!!!???
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Pulpstar, link doesn't work for a non-player.

    Mr. Antifrank, I'm not much a drinker and have never read a Tintin story. Best chips I can recall having were from a fish and chip shop near Windermere. Bloody tons of chips, which were quite delicious.

    Mr. Lennon, I shall have to take your word for it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Mr Alanbrooke recently accused me of working for Goldman Sachs - a firm I haven't worked for since the 1990s.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Surprised Rennard didn't have a bar chart in his statement - "Clegg cannot win in Rennardgate".

    Still a lot of onions in there - bring a tear to a glass eye it would - poor wee hard done by Chris ....
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Mr Alanbrooke recently accused me of working for Goldman Sachs - a firm I haven't worked for since the 1990s.
    They are somewhat behind the times in the rural reaches of Warwickshire, Robert.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    If I remember correctly, the council seat by-election the other day showed a collapse in the LD vote.

    It did and it didn't . Compared to the 2010 local elections fought on GE day it did , but compared with the normal LD performance 2006/2007/2008 it didn't .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Pulpstar said:

    Lennon said:

    antifrank said:

    @Morris_Dancer You're forgetting beer, chips and Tintin.

    And arguably the best ever professional cyclist (Eddie Merckx)

    Arguably ????!!!???
    Not as good as Lance "It's not about the bike" Amstrong
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    FPT - On topic, I'm not sure Cameron has learnt yet (or will ever learn) how to handle seemingly contrary evidence.

    On the one hand, he reads (and is told) that he's much more popular than his party and enjoys very strong levels of support from Conservative voters. At one point, it was nigh on 100%. On the other hand, his leadership has been characterised by the haemorrhaging of party members, activists and he is none too popular with plenty of his backbenchers either.

    The simple conclusion is to say it's one or t'other and, naturally, you'd think the Cameroons would plump for the voters, thank you very much.

    But the problem is that it's not that simple. A leader will always make enemies, and almost always progressively less popular as time goes by, but a good and perceptive leader would recognise that these choices are not mutually exclusive. The polite, patient and respective engagement of the party and its supporters - building support for each initiative, making the case and, most importantly, time for them - does not need to come at the cost of relative popularity amongst the voters at large.

    It's called leadership, and good leaders don't dictate. They inspire and excite the building of a broad coalition to follow them.

    It's difficult to lead groups of people who want something fundamentally different. There are some who want Britain out of the EU whatever the cost; there are others (like me) who are pretty much middle-of-the-road and worry about change either way; then there are the Europhiles.

    The Conservative Party seems to have all three of these in. How can he lead such a disparate group? It's impossible.
    It's not easy, I grant you. However, I sort of feel that this is sometimes an excuse the leadership use to do very little about it.

    Cameron had (and still has) a group of people advising him who misread the factors that led to Blair's rise to power in 1997. They don't really understand - and, frankly, were never bright enough to understand - the New Labour 'Project'. These people genuinely thought that being actively contemptuous of Conservative party members and activists was an election winning strategy.

    So much of Cameron's problem boils down to a basic lack of courtesy and disrespect shown to his troops. There's no reason this couldn't have been maintained whilst pursuing a reform agenda, but he chose not to.

    In what other organisation (in the private, or public sector) would a successful change initiative rest on such a ridiculous premise?


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    MikeK said:

    I'm laying £100 on a UKIP win. My local Paddy Power will take this bet.

    Of course they will Mike !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited January 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Mr Alanbrooke recently accused me of working for Goldman Sachs - a firm I haven't worked for since the 1990s.
    RCS that's a little naughty, I alluded to your time at the company I didn't say you were still an employee as you've made quite clear you no longer are on several occasions. However it is a bit like having an SS tattoo. Nonetheless if you have put this aberration in your career behind you and can show me documentary evidence that you buried your employee badge at a crossroads, at midnight in the middle of a garlic farm I'll apologise faster than you can say Lord Rennard :-)
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RodCrosby said:

    FPT:

    "corporeal said:
    » show previous quotes
    Richard.

    The inquiry found that the only aspect with insufficient evidence was whether he acted intentionally.

    An apology was warranted even if he unintentionally caused distress."


    'The inquiry found...'

    There was no inquiry. The Investigator found there was insufficient evidence to warrant an inquiry as to whether Rennard had brought the party into disrepute.

    Now he has been suspended, pending inquiry whether he has brought the party into disrepute....

    Kafka couldn't have invented that one.

    The investigation found "the evidence of behaviour which violated the personal space and autonomy of the complainants was broadly credible. However, it is my judgment, considering all of the evidence collected, that it is unlikely that it could be established beyond reasonable doubt that Lord Rennard had intended to act in an indecent or sexually inappropriate way. Without proof of such an intention, I do not consider that such a charge would be tenable."

    So even if you take him as acting unintentionally, an apology would be warranted.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    when one long statement isn't enough...

    Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 4m
    Another statement on the way from Lord Rennard later today.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lennon said:

    antifrank said:

    @Morris_Dancer You're forgetting beer, chips and Tintin.

    And arguably the best ever professional cyclist (Eddie Merckx)

    Arguably ????!!!???
    Not as good as Lance "It's not about the bike" Amstrong
    The Tour is the greatest race, it is not the only race.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    @AveryLP

    The problem I see with using productivity rather than employment as a basis for action is that the productivity statistics are very unreliable and subject to substantial revisions. The unemployment figures are also subject to revision but not nearly by such a large amount.

    Our productivity numbers have also been subject to significant exceptional factors. By far the largest of these has been the precipitate fall in north sea oil production over the last few years. This has made our productivity figures look much worse than they are on an underlying basis. If you start to make allowances for such uncertainty and possible revisions you do not have a meaningful basis for forward guidance.

    It may be that the Bank has had second thoughts about forward guidance and is content that it disappears into a King style form of obfustication but I doubt it. I think we will stick with employment and that the first rise in rates will be this year unless the EZ goes into another spin.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Too busy laughing at Ben Broadbent's CV.
    Impressive, but both universities too far east.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    In small size I will lay 5/6 under or over

    Lab 46.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 12.5
    LD 11.5
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Mr Alanbrooke recently accused me of working for Goldman Sachs - a firm I haven't worked for since the 1990s.
    They are somewhat behind the times in the rural reaches of Warwickshire, Robert.

    Given the economy has to go back the future I'd argue we're ahead.

    re-shoring is the new off-shoring or haven't you heard ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Do we have an estimate for Statement 2: State Harder?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    If you go by isam's reasoning and take the minima of Labour's performance,

    Lab 59% Paul Goggins Labour 17,987 = 10612

    And the maximum of UKIP

    599% Christopher Cassidy UKIP 1,405 = 8415

    Then UKIP still doesn't win...

    For that to be a 6-1 shot is utterly, utterly ridiculous.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    isam said:

    In small size I will lay 5/6 under or over

    Lab 46.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 12.5
    LD 11.5

    Not too far off what I would suggest, although I would probably put LD lower, and would want to see who Lab choose as a candidate. Also, I would put Other Others above 3% in a by-election.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Too busy laughing at Ben Broadbent's CV.
    Impressive, but both universities too far east.

    Not far enough East Mr Pole Heidelberg and Humboldt would have been much better.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    Stingy.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469



    It's difficult to lead groups of people who want something fundamentally different. There are some who want Britain out of the EU whatever the cost; there are others (like me) who are pretty much middle-of-the-road and worry about change either way; then there are the Europhiles.

    The Conservative Party seems to have all three of these in. How can he lead such a disparate group? It's impossible.

    It's not easy, I grant you. However, I sort of feel that this is sometimes an excuse the leadership use to do very little about it.

    Cameron had (and still has) a group of people advising him who misread the factors that led to Blair's rise to power in 1997. They don't really understand - and, frankly, were never bright enough to understand - the New Labour 'Project'. These people genuinely thought that being actively contemptuous of Conservative party members and activists was an election winning strategy.

    So much of Cameron's problem boils down to a basic lack of courtesy and disrespect shown to his troops. There's no reason this couldn't have been maintained whilst pursuing a reform agenda, but he chose not to.

    In what other organisation (in the private, or public sector) would a successful change initiative rest on such a ridiculous premise?
    I think it's all too easy to understand Blair's New Labour project. It's also easy to see why no politician should go near it with a bargepole: for one thing, the media have smartened up. For another, it would only be possible in a power-hungry party of sheep-like MPs - i.e. Labour.

    As for the party and its membership: it's impossible to square that circle. When you have people putting getting out of Europe as number one priority, whilst others are firmly Europhile, then you can't give both sides what they want. There has to be compromise. And some BOOers want no compromise. To some of them, Europe is the most important issue facing Britain, which shows how utterly out of whack their priorities are.

    I see more disrespect from so-called Conservatives to Cameron than Cameron has shown towards them. If anything, he's been remarkably tolerant. Just look at the hatred some right-wingers on here show towards him.

    They haven't forgiven him for beating David Davis.

    He's also in coalition with a pre-EU party. He has a difficult course to sail.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Lennon said:

    isam said:

    In small size I will lay 5/6 under or over

    Lab 46.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 12.5
    LD 11.5

    Not too far off what I would suggest, although I would probably put LD lower, and would want to see who Lab choose as a candidate. Also, I would put Other Others above 3% in a by-election.
    Youre prob right in terms of others.. in the last 6 by elections the other averaged 8%....

    So lets say

    Lab 45.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 11.5
    LD 10.5
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2014
    Sky News... Has Farage put his foot in it?

    Revealed after the break....

    Do hope its not his "the girls in the office will be pleased " re Its Raining Men

    EDI: He said working mums are worth less to employers than men

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01q7rzn
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    corporeal said:


    So even if you take him as acting unintentionally, an apology would be warranted.

    It doesn't work like that, I'm afraid.

    The charge was 'bringing the party into disrepute.'

    The Investigator found insufficient evidence to even warrant an inquiry into the charge.

    Then he appeared to substitute his own charge, the Newspeak "invading the autonomy..." bollocks, and insinuate guilt of that instead, inventing a sanction off the top of his head. It was not his place to do any of these things under the party's own rules.

    Now they're trying to hang Rennard for simply not paying heed to this nonsense.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2014
    I was going to put some money on UKIP with William Hill but 6/1 isn't very enticing:

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/5487561/Wythenshawe-And-Sale-East-By-Election.html

    Betfair don't seem to have a market yet.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited January 2014

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    Stingy.
    The LDs will only do well in seats where they are in with a good chance of winning and where they throw the kitchen sink at it. This applies to local elections as much as Westminster by-elections or even GE2015

    Fighing for second places is something for UKIP.

    The LDs will come 4th or 5th and it doesn't matter an iota. This is first past the post.



  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    DavidL said:

    @AveryLP

    The problem I see with using productivity rather than employment as a basis for action is that the productivity statistics are very unreliable and subject to substantial revisions. The unemployment figures are also subject to revision but not nearly by such a large amount.

    Our productivity numbers have also been subject to significant exceptional factors. By far the largest of these has been the precipitate fall in north sea oil production over the last few years. This has made our productivity figures look much worse than they are on an underlying basis. If you start to make allowances for such uncertainty and possible revisions you do not have a meaningful basis for forward guidance.

    It may be that the Bank has had second thoughts about forward guidance and is content that it disappears into a King style form of obfustication but I doubt it. I think we will stick with employment and that the first rise in rates will be this year unless the EZ goes into another spin.

    David

    I agree that the nebulous nature of productivity only allows for measurement by divining stick but it is still more transparent process than calculating an output gap and using that metric as a basis for forward growth forecasts.

    It is interesting that the BoE have stopped publishing their estimate of the output gap. The Old Lady of Threadneedle street is obviously at war with the upstart Chote.

    On the next interest rate rise the markets and economics commentators seem broadly aligned on the end of second quarter 2015 as the timing of the first 0.25% rise in rates. So you are on an outsider if you think it will happen this year.

    I guess the next time this becomes an hot issue will be in the month following a fiscal stimulus budget. If 2014 Q1 GDP growth, to be announced in April, comes in at mid 2013 levels or higher (eg. 0.8%+ rather than the OBR forecast of 0.5%) then there will be significant market speculation that there will be a 2014 rise however much Carney and Osborne will want to find reasons for delaying it.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    13th Feb for b/e.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT is learning to scuba dive in southern Thailand:

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    isam said:

    In small size I will lay 5/6 under or over

    Lab 46.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 12.5
    LD 11.5

    Not too far off what I would suggest, although I would probably put LD lower, and would want to see who Lab choose as a candidate. Also, I would put Other Others above 3% in a by-election.
    Youre prob right in terms of others.. in the last 6 by elections the other averaged 8%....

    So lets say

    Lab 45.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 11.5
    LD 10.5
    £10 Conservatives Overs.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,075
    Isam / Lennon: I agree with Lennon that Rotherham and South Shields are the best comparators, but neither are particularly apt. The bulk of the seat is white working class (a la Rotherham / South Shields) but Sale East provides a bigger middle class enclave than exists in either Rotherham or South Shields. Nor are there the local issues which were so favourable to UKIP in Rotherham (although there was a case before Christmas of a hotel in Sale (albeit technically a few feet over the border in Altrincham and Sale West) accommodating 100 asylum seekers, which created some local disquiet). The UKIP strength here is likely to be more from disillusioned ex-Labour voters in Wythenshawe than among disillusioned ex-Tories in Sale, among whom UKIP haven't previously shown any particular presence.

    Interesting that this is an east/west issue. You don't get many of those in UK politics (or UK anything else, come to that).

    FWIW, My best estimate is something to the effect of:
    Lab 36%
    UKIP 28%
    Con 17%
    LD 5%

    As an aside, a neighbour of mine related a story from Sale town centre last weekend: he was accosted by a green party activist who broke off her haranguing of the UKIP party man who was setting up nearby to ask my friend his opinions on fracking. She then spent three minutes telling him why he was wrong before his three-year-old daughter came to the rescue by bellowing 'I'm bored!' and hitting the green party activist in the face with a balloon from Argos. Pavement politics is clearly alive and well in Wythenshawe and Sale East.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Mr Alanbrooke recently accused me of working for Goldman Sachs - a firm I haven't worked for since the 1990s.
    They are somewhat behind the times in the rural reaches of Warwickshire, Robert.

    Given the economy has to go back the future I'd argue we're ahead.

    re-shoring is the new off-shoring or haven't you heard ?
    I'm shore you're right, Mishter Brooke.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT is learning to scuba dive in southern Thailand:

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox

    I learnt to scuba dive in Ko Tao too actually, a beautiful place.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    DavidL said:

    @AveryLP

    The problem I see with using productivity rather than employment as a basis for action is that the productivity statistics are very unreliable and subject to substantial revisions. The unemployment figures are also subject to revision but not nearly by such a large amount.

    Our productivity numbers have also been subject to significant exceptional factors. By far the largest of these has been the precipitate fall in north sea oil production over the last few years. This has made our productivity figures look much worse than they are on an underlying basis. If you start to make allowances for such uncertainty and possible revisions you do not have a meaningful basis for forward guidance.

    It may be that the Bank has had second thoughts about forward guidance and is content that it disappears into a King style form of obfustication but I doubt it. I think we will stick with employment and that the first rise in rates will be this year unless the EZ goes into another spin.

    At its simplest level, 'productivity' is measured by dividing economic output by number of hours worked. So, if a country implements a minimum wage of - say - £15/hour, there would be a dramatic reduction in the amount of economic output, and the number of hours worked (as the vast majority of those who weren't able to command a £15/hour wage currently would continue to be unable to command such a wage). However, 'productivity' would rise, as the amount of economic output per hour worked would rise - simply by the expedient of stopping low productivity workers from working...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Lennon said:

    antifrank said:

    @Morris_Dancer You're forgetting beer, chips and Tintin.

    And arguably the best ever professional cyclist (Eddie Merckx)

    You're being unkind to Lance Armstrong there.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    Stingy.
    The LDs will only do well in seats where they are in with a good chance of winning and where they throw the kitchen sink at it. This applies to local elections as much as Westminster by-elections or even GE2015

    Fighing for second places is something for UKIP.

    The LDs will come 4th or 5th and it doesn't matter an iota. This is first past the post.

    I quite agree, which is why I don't think they have any chance of finishing second.

    That said, the Lib Dem strategy is one that means they can never win an election, and indeed are getting further away from it as future target seats slip further away.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    isam said:

    In small size I will lay 5/6 under or over

    Lab 46.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 12.5
    LD 11.5

    Not too far off what I would suggest, although I would probably put LD lower, and would want to see who Lab choose as a candidate. Also, I would put Other Others above 3% in a by-election.
    Youre prob right in terms of others.. in the last 6 by elections the other averaged 8%....

    So lets say

    Lab 45.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 11.5
    LD 10.5
    £10 Conservatives Overs.
    £10@5/6 Con over 11.5% done!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    Stingy.
    The LDs will only do well in seats where they are in with a good chance of winning and where they throw the kitchen sink at it. This applies to local elections as much as Westminster by-elections or even GE2015

    Fighing for second places is something for UKIP.

    The LDs will come 4th or 5th and it doesn't matter an iota. This is first past the post.

    I quite agree, which is why I don't think they have any chance of finishing second.

    That said, the Lib Dem strategy is one that means they can never win an election, and indeed are getting further away from it as future target seats slip further away.
    With donors and activists fleeing the party, that seems rather inevitable. I'm not sure there is an alternative for the Libs.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Too busy laughing at Ben Broadbent's CV.
    Impressive, but both universities too far east.

    Not far enough East Mr Pole Heidelberg and Humboldt would have been much better.
    Aren't they Sparkassen, Mr. Brooke?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    isam said:

    In small size I will lay 5/6 under or over

    Lab 46.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 12.5
    LD 11.5

    Not too far off what I would suggest, although I would probably put LD lower, and would want to see who Lab choose as a candidate. Also, I would put Other Others above 3% in a by-election.
    Youre prob right in terms of others.. in the last 6 by elections the other averaged 8%....

    So lets say

    Lab 45.5
    UKIP 26.5
    Con 11.5
    LD 10.5
    £10 Conservatives Overs.
    £10@5/6 Con over 11.5% done!
    :O) Now watch them lose their deposit ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Will be interesting to see if Paddy and Labrokes bring out lines
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    Stingy.
    The LDs will only do well in seats where they are in with a good chance of winning and where they throw the kitchen sink at it. This applies to local elections as much as Westminster by-elections or even GE2015

    Fighing for second places is something for UKIP.

    The LDs will come 4th or 5th and it doesn't matter an iota. This is first past the post.



    Narrative? Media reaction? Expectations? Voting habits?

    Not sure I agree that failure is free of consequences.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT is learning to scuba dive in southern Thailand:

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox

    I learnt to scuba dive in Ko Tao too actually, a beautiful place.
    I learnt to scuba dive in Gildenburgh Lake. In winter. Not a beautiful place. ;-)

    http://www.gildenburgh.com/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    Will be interesting to see if Paddy and Labrokes bring out lines

    Sure they will
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2014
    Shock retirement announcement of Tory MP for Erewash Jessica Lee who was first elected in 2010 with a massive 10.5% swing from Labour:

    http://www.nottinghampost.com/Erewash-MP-Jessica-Lee-stand-ahead-General/story-20467645-detail/story.html

    Bad news for the Tories who probably needed a first-time incumbency boost to hold the seat, which is next door to Broxtowe.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belgian consumer confidence numbers are out! They show a -4 reading... which, believe it or not, is their best level in two and a half years.

    No, I don't really care either.

    Mr Brooke is likely to see it as a 'Belgian Jam dropper'.

    Too busy laughing at Ben Broadbent's CV.
    Impressive, but both universities too far east.

    Not far enough East Mr Pole Heidelberg and Humboldt would have been much better.
    Aren't they Sparkassen, Mr. Brooke?
    Yes, they fund the Mittelstand, Wonga College Oxford have much to learn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    Stingy.
    The LDs will only do well in seats where they are in with a good chance of winning and where they throw the kitchen sink at it. This applies to local elections as much as Westminster by-elections or even GE2015

    Fighing for second places is something for UKIP.

    The LDs will come 4th or 5th and it doesn't matter an iota. This is first past the post.

    I quite agree, which is why I don't think they have any chance of finishing second.

    That said, the Lib Dem strategy is one that means they can never win an election, and indeed are getting further away from it as future target seats slip further away.
    Hmm you're probably right, I think my 50p is gone at any rate. The value must surely be with CON in 2nd place though right now I think ?

    Quincel declined from a Lib Dem Lost deposit bet too...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited January 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:


    So even if you take him as acting unintentionally, an apology would be warranted.

    It doesn't work like that, I'm afraid.

    The charge was 'bringing the party into disrepute.'

    The Investigator found insufficient evidence to even warrant an inquiry into the charge.

    Then he appeared to substitute his own charge, the Newspeak "invading the autonomy..." bollocks, and insinuate guilt of that instead, inventing a sanction off the top of his head. It was not his place to do any of these things under the party's own rules.

    Now they're trying to hang Rennard for simply not paying heed to this nonsense.

    You're tripping over your own pedantry Rod.

    There wasn't an actual charge. There was an investigation into the allegations against Lord Rennard.

    The outcome of the investigation was that the allegations of Rennard's behaviour were broadly credible, but that intent wasn't provable.

    (and saying he substituted his own charge is inaccurate, the broad charge would have been bringing the party into disrepute by way of the specific actions referenced by Webster)

    There wasn't a charge, there wasn't a sanction. There was an investigation, and based on the outcome of the investigation Rennard's behaviour, even if unintentional, warranted (at the least) an apology. (Or to be accurate, they're now looking into whether not apologising for the behaviour is grounds for a charge).
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    I'm laying £100 on a UKIP win. My local Paddy Power will take this bet.

    Of course they will Mike !
    Lets see who has the last laugh.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will be interesting to see if Paddy and Labrokes bring out lines

    Sure they will
    Btw Should an expectation of 10.5 be 33-1 for 2nd place, and an expectation of 11.5 be 3-1 for 2nd against an expectation of 26.5 ?

    I suspect the 3-1 on CON might be value anyway but I'm not sure...

    That's my reasoning behind the bet.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Its gonna happen on Feb 13th
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    I'm laying £100 on a UKIP win. My local Paddy Power will take this bet.

    Of course they will Mike !
    Lets see who has the last laugh.
    Paddy Power will I suspect.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't know the seat but what do people think of the LibDems at 33/1 to come second?
    http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british/wythenshawe-&-sale-east-by-election-e218221749#

    They only just missed second place last time, and UKIP can help them by peeling some votes off Con.

    Stingy.
    The LDs will only do well in seats where they are in with a good chance of winning and where they throw the kitchen sink at it. This applies to local elections as much as Westminster by-elections or even GE2015

    Fighing for second places is something for UKIP.

    The LDs will come 4th or 5th and it doesn't matter an iota. This is first past the post.

    I quite agree, which is why I don't think they have any chance of finishing second.

    That said, the Lib Dem strategy is one that means they can never win an election, and indeed are getting further away from it as future target seats slip further away.
    With donors and activists fleeing the party, that seems rather inevitable. I'm not sure there is an alternative for the Libs.
    I don't see any alternative either. But it is a reversion to the 1924-1955 period, in which the party was desperately trying to hang on to a diminishing number of strongholds.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    Mr. 1000, Belgium's only good for chocolates and F1.

    And as a handy route to invade France, obviously.

    And dinosaurs. Don't forget the dinosaurs.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will be interesting to see if Paddy and Labrokes bring out lines

    Sure they will
    Btw Should an expectation of 10.5 be 33-1 for 2nd place, and an expectation of 11.5 be 3-1 for 2nd against an expectation of 26.5 ?

    I suspect the 3-1 on CON might be value anyway but I'm not sure...

    That's my reasoning behind the bet.
    Im def way out of line with the 3s and 33s... I guess your bet depends on whether I have the Cons are too low or the LDs too high
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    AndyJS said:

    Shock retirement announcement of Tory MP for Erewash Jessica Lee who was first elected in 2010 with a massive 10.5% swing from Labour:

    http://www.nottinghampost.com/Erewash-MP-Jessica-Lee-stand-ahead-General/story-20467645-detail/story.html

    Bad news for the Tories who probably needed a first-time incumbency boost to hold the seat, which is next door to Broxtowe.

    2010

    Con: 39.5%
    Lab: 34.2%
    LD: 17.5%
    BNP: 4.9%
    UKIP: 1.8%
    Green: 1.1%
    Ind: 1%
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536

    FPT - On topic, I'm not sure Cameron has learnt yet (or will ever learn) how to handle seemingly contrary evidence.

    On the one hand, he reads (and is told) that he's much more popular than his party and enjoys very strong levels of support from Conservative voters. At one point, it was nigh on 100%. On the other hand, his leadership has been characterised by the haemorrhaging of party members, activists and he is none too popular with plenty of his backbenchers either.

    The simple conclusion is to say it's one or t'other and, naturally, you'd think the Cameroons would plump for the voters, thank you very much.

    But the problem is that it's not that simple. A leader will always make enemies, and almost always progressively less popular as time goes by, but a good and perceptive leader would recognise that these choices are not mutually exclusive. The polite, patient and respective engagement of the party and its supporters - building support for each initiative, making the case and, most importantly, time for them - does not need to come at the cost of relative popularity amongst the voters at large.

    It's called leadership, and good leaders don't dictate. They inspire and excite the building of a broad coalition to follow them.

    Cameron's approval rating is very strong among people who say they will currently vote Conservative.

    Much less so amongst Conservative voters from 2010.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I see that OGH has cunningly smothered all talk of the Rennard suspension, with the news of an active by-election to a parliamentary seat. So i'll now reprint my post of 3:33pm this afternoon, as I think it important.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT.

    AndyJS said:
    Rennard statement:

    https://www.facebook.com/peter.hayes.3781/posts/10203078809316850
    -----------------------------------
    Rennard say's in his statement that he is a sick man. That may be, but the statement itself is sick; made by a seemingly sick mind. He even talks of self harming his own person, as well a sobbing about how hard done by he is. Rather disgusting; rather than taking it like a man, he bawls like a baby.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    Shock retirement announcement of Tory MP for Erewash Jessica Lee who was first elected in 2010 with a massive 10.5% swing from Labour:

    http://www.nottinghampost.com/Erewash-MP-Jessica-Lee-stand-ahead-General/story-20467645-detail/story.html

    Bad news for the Tories who probably needed a first-time incumbency boost to hold the seat, which is next door to Broxtowe.

    If Labour wins it back (or if the Tories hold with a woman candidate) will it be the first constituency to ever elect 4 different women in a row? Andrea will know if it's a record!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701


    I think it's all too easy to understand Blair's New Labour project. It's also easy to see why no politician should go near it with a bargepole: for one thing, the media have smartened up. For another, it would only be possible in a power-hungry party of sheep-like MPs - i.e. Labour.

    As for the party and its membership: it's impossible to square that circle. When you have people putting getting out of Europe as number one priority, whilst others are firmly Europhile, then you can't give both sides what they want. There has to be compromise. And some BOOers want no compromise. To some of them, Europe is the most important issue facing Britain, which shows how utterly out of whack their priorities are.

    I see more disrespect from so-called Conservatives to Cameron than Cameron has shown towards them. If anything, he's been remarkably tolerant. Just look at the hatred some right-wingers on here show towards him.

    They haven't forgiven him for beating David Davis.

    He's also in coalition with a pre-EU party. He has a difficult course to sail.
    I appreciate your viewpoint JJ, and we may have to agree to disagree. I feel that some of your responses there are a little dismissive of (what I feel are) genuine concerns. They are also partly my experiences. It sort of underlines my point: I'm not sure the leadership is really listening, or willing to listen.

    I grant you there are a few die-hards. However, these are nowhere near as numerous as commonly perceived. I do not believe it was necessary to lose almost 50% of party members inside 8 years, during a period when both Labour and Liberal Democrats have experienced far smaller declines. These have included longstanding party chairman, councillors and association organisers as well activists with decades of service. There are now fewer Conservative party members *overall* than voted for Cameron in 2005. I should know, I was one of them.

    My view is that it is the responsibility of the leader to lead the party, not blame the troops. That is what he was voted into do, and what he is paid to do. No other organisation would seek to blame its staff for a failure in its change strategy. I think its a bit rich to demand absolute loyalty from all members, and their money and time whenever needed, but to arrogantly dismiss and insult them as part of a strategy to *change* the party. I just think that's crazy. Why would anyone stay a member of an organisation run like that?

    On the EU point, this is not down to obsession (aside from a few cases) - rather it's because plenty of MPs, and supporters, doubt Cameron's sincerity on it and don't trust him to deliver.

    Frankly, I think they're right to be worried.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    Its gonna happen on Feb 13th

    13 is my lucky number. Fancy that!

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    o/t - new analysis of political coverage of the indy referendum in Scottish TV reportage, both BBC and STV (first link includes link to original report).

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/fairness-in-the-first-year/

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-illegitimacy-klaxon/

    It raises some interesting issues as to the BBC's role, as well as its strong support for the London Government.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited January 2014
    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    Its gonna happen on Feb 13th

    13 is my lucky number. Fancy that!

    Mine is 29 :O) ! Black 29 ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2014
    Jessica Lee was a barrister in her mid-30s when elected for Erewash in 2010 overturning a 15% Labour majority. I would hazard a guess that she would like to make a bit of decent money in that occupation before possibly returning to politics. She may have thought it would take more than one attempt to take the seat from Labour.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    Jessica Lee was a barrister in her mid-30s when elected for Erewash in 2010 overturning a 15% Labour majority. I would hazard a guess that she would like to make a bit of decent money in that occupation before possibly returning to politics. She may have thought it would take more than one attempt to take the seat from Labour.

    Isnt her opponent (well, former opponent!) a barrister in her mid 30s?

    Has politics ever been this diverse?
This discussion has been closed.