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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron is the only leader to be viewed more favourably th

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron is the only leader to be viewed more favourably than his party

A very big part of US polling that we see rarely in the UK are favourability ratings. Questioning such as “Do you have a favourable/unfavourable view of Obama/Democrats/Congress/ etc” have been part and parcel of US polling data for years.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    So it is nice to see Rachel Reeves doing her bit to keep Cameron in office by threatening to deny benefits to potential Labour voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    No, no, no, Mike. Cameron is a traitor, untrustworthy, an appeaser. No one will vote tory again until he is replaced with someone pure. I am certain this person of purity will be along any minute.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    68% of Kippers view Farage favourably – this doesn’t strike me as a problem, unless of course there is an alternate leader with a higher rating.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    This type of relative measure polling is only really useful when you know how favourably/unfavourably all the parties are viewed by the public along with the net differences figure. Then you can factor this polling in since the public quite obviously do not view all the parties the same way and with the same degree of favour/disfavour.

    Still handy to know though but if all the parties are viewed fairly negatively then not quite as telling as it could be.

    Incidently, this might have been posted before but this is still very funny indeed for those who missed it and it seems to be going viral unsurprisingly enough.
    Retweeted 612 times
    Nicholas Pegg ‏@NicholasPegg 16h

    And now on Radio Four, it's the UKIP Shipping Forecast. https://soundcloud.com/nicholas-pegg/ukip-shipping-forecast
    LOL

    :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    I think this has the potential to be one of the bigger stories of the day: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10582632/Police-rank-and-file-leaders-to-rein-in-partisan-and-politically-motivated-members.html

    Yet another day of bad publicity for the police.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Net favourability among party supporters in that ComRes poll:

    Ukip +90
    Con +77
    Cameron +73
    Labour +70
    Farage +64
    Lib Dems +62
    Miliband +42
    Clegg +38

    Among those aged 65+

    Ukip -4
    Con -5
    Farage -5
    Cameron -7
    Lib Dems -43
    Clegg -44
    Labour -47
    Miliband -53
  • My guess - and it is a guess - is that the default position is that the incumbent Prime Minister runs ahead of the opposition leaders. How salient is it? People are brought up, on the whole, inside a political tradition (or apathy towards all traditions) and the views of any individual towards a political party speak at least as much of their childhood happiness (or lack of) as they do of the merits of the politics themselves.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    LibDem disciplinary procedures (guide and helpful flowchart).
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf

    They are quite exemplary and fair, and the LDs have a both a duty and no option but to accept Rennard's innocence, and forget about the matter.

    Talk of further action against him is madness, and I have no doubt such would be injuncted by the courts...

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Only one story for the lib dems today thanks to Clegg and Rennard.
    norman smith‏@BBCNormanS50 mins
    Nick Clegg says "matters will not rest there" if @LordRennard returns to Hosue of Lords today without apologising @Daybreak

    Chris Mason‏@ChrisMasonBBC51 mins
    Nick Clegg tells @daybreak if Lord Rennard returns to the Lords today "it would be in defiance of basic decency" "and defiance of me."
    Tough talk from Clegg but a rather telling lack of detail on what exactly he's going to do about it. No doubt we shall see soon enough.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    DavidL said:

    No, no, no, Mike. Cameron is a traitor, untrustworthy, an appeaser. No one will vote tory again until he is replaced with someone pure. I am certain this person of purity will be along any minute.

    As I said yesterday, all that would satisfy some of them is Maggie's reanimated corpse. They fail to understand that the world has moved on, that we are no longer in the 1980s. Yesterday we got told that Conservative Party membership is declining, and only elderly members are left in some constituencies.

    What they fail to understand is that it is the attitude of many (albeit far from all) such people that might be putting off younger people from joining. I mean, who in their twenties would want to be stuck in a room with such a bunch of dinosaurs?

    What do their views offer the modern young person? The main Conservative Party is trying to appeal to them in fairly Conservative ways: work hard and you'll get rewarded; if you genuinely fall on hard times, there is a safety net. It is a very different offer from Labour's.

    Yet some issues - such as Europe - are blown up to such stupid levels compared to the other important issues. OGH is right when he points out that Europe isn't a major issue for most people, yet the dinosaurs repeatedly stick their heads in the sand (dinosaur ostriches?).

    There has to be ideological purity. Anyone who attempts to divert from that track and deal with the real world has to be shunned. Hence the disconnect between their views and Cameron's ratings.

    If it were not for UKIP's presence, they might well kill the party.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    My guess - and it is a guess - is that the default position is that the incumbent Prime Minister runs ahead of the opposition leaders.

    I'd say there's a bit more to what you say than just guesswork since the PM will always have an inbuilt advantage over an opposition leader in looking Prime Ministerial and a governing party almost always gets hit by voter dissatisfaction mid-term with local elections and other opportunities to vote against the party rather than the far more 'Presidential' GE. Which isn't to say those are hard and fast rules but it may make this type of relative polling far more salient come the GE campaign in 2015.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2014
    Stupid Clegg digging himself deeper on Sky.

    ....but seemingly backtracking towards the end, over what he will do.
  • Mick, I would have said that myself if I hadn't been trying at the same time to listen to a lecture by Richard Holloway! I really must try to stop trying to do two things at once...
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530


    Yet some issues - such as Europe - are blown up to such stupid levels compared to the other important issues. OGH is right when he points out that Europe isn't a major issue for most people, yet the dinosaurs repeatedly stick their heads in the sand (dinosaur ostriches?).

    He is right but the fact is that it sure as hell matters to a great many tory MPs, which is kind of the point. Nor is there anything new in that as previous Con leaders will quite readily testify. If Cammie didn't want Europe to be an issue with his Eurosceptic MPs then he should perhaps have given a touch more thought to where all the flounces, posturing and Cast Iron Pledges would inevitably lead.
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 40m

    Trevor Kavanagh writes... @David_Cameron really needs to act on Europe - and quickly: http://bit.ly/1aCAxmp
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    RodCrosby said:

    LibDem disciplinary procedures (guide and helpful flowchart).
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf

    They are quite exemplary and fair, and the LDs have a both a duty and no option but to accept Rennard's innocence, and forget about the matter.

    Talk of further action against him is madness, and I have no doubt such would be injuncted by the courts...

    Was that process in place when the allegations were first made years ago? (*)

    There also seems to be a rather big hole in it: it only seems to deal with revocation of membership as a sanction - the first step says "grounds for revocation". There are many other courses of action that may be deemed necessary, for instance training courses or warnings: you can have behaviour that is not ideal, or could be misconstrued, that needs dealing with, but is not against the rules.

    This document would not pass muster in some of the firms I've worked for.

    ACAS's view on grievance procedures:
    http://www.acas.org.uk/media/pdf/l/r/Bullying_and_harassment_employer_2010-accessible-version-July-2011.pdf

    (*) BTW, it is important for such documents to have version numbers and histories.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RodCrosby said:

    accept Rennard's innocence, and forget about the matter

    dream on......

    Lord Rennard to defy Nick Clegg and sit with Liberal Democrat peers, making victims feel 'physically sick'
    Lord Rennard is planning to sit with Liberal Democrat peers on the Government benches in the House of Lords in open defiance of Nick Clegg.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10582963/Lord-Rennard-to-defy-Nick-Clegg-and-sit-with-Liberal-Democrat-peers-making-victims-feel-physically-sick.html

    Rennard could sue if Clegg tries to kick him out of the Lib Dems
    Friends of the former Lib Dem chief executive said he was being ‘lined up against the wall’
    They said if Nick Clegg attempts to remove the whip they will take the case to the High Court
    The Deputy Prime Minister is set to propose a second inquiry into the peer’s failure to say sorry for the alleged incidents

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542442/Rennard-sue-Clegg-tries-kick-Lib-Dems.html#ixzz2qvIikwj4

    Nick Clegg battling to avert civil war in Lib Dems after Lord Rennard cleared of 'grope' claims

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lord-rennard-scandal-nick-clegg-3039914#ixzz2qvIzbAIP

    Lord Rennard is victim of political conspiracy, say his allies
    Former Lib Dem chief executive's legal adviser warns that dispute over sexual harassment allegations could end up in court


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/19/lord-rennard-allies-allege-political-conspiracy
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    DavidL said:

    No, no, no, Mike. Cameron is a traitor, untrustworthy, an appeaser. No one will vote tory again until he is replaced with someone pure. I am certain this person of purity will be along any minute.

    As I said yesterday, all that would satisfy some of them is Maggie's reanimated corpse. They fail to understand that the world has moved on, that we are no longer in the 1980s. Yesterday we got told that Conservative Party membership is declining, and only elderly members are left in some constituencies.

    What they fail to understand is that it is the attitude of many (albeit far from all) such people that might be putting off younger people from joining. I mean, who in their twenties would want to be stuck in a room with such a bunch of dinosaurs?

    What do their views offer the modern young person? The main Conservative Party is trying to appeal to them in fairly Conservative ways: work hard and you'll get rewarded; if you genuinely fall on hard times, there is a safety net. It is a very different offer from Labour's.

    Yet some issues - such as Europe - are blown up to such stupid levels compared to the other important issues. OGH is right when he points out that Europe isn't a major issue for most people, yet the dinosaurs repeatedly stick their heads in the sand (dinosaur ostriches?).

    There has to be ideological purity. Anyone who attempts to divert from that track and deal with the real world has to be shunned. Hence the disconnect between their views and Cameron's ratings.

    If it were not for UKIP's presence, they might well kill the party.
    The ideological purity tests may be at their highest on Europe but the same sort of fantasy is seen on other issues on here and elsewhere on a daily basis.

    For example Cameron and Osborne are clearly closet socialists as the budget deficit of £156bn was not wiped out in the first budget; because nominal spending has been broadly flat whilst real spending fell (wimps) ; because immigration was not just simply stopped or wished away (liars); because Cameron has been foolish enough to listen to the Lib Dems on whom he relies for a Parlaimentary majority (weaklings).

    I genuinely fear that the right is disintegrating to a point where they have little to offer the country, certainly not a coherent and credible government offering real world solutions. Some of this comes from years in pointless opposition, some from the poison of Thatcher's downfall, some from drawing so many of their members from people of a certain age. Given the alternative of Miliband & co it is a real problem for the future of the country.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737



    Was that process in place when the allegations were first made years ago? (*)

    There also seems to be a rather big hole in it: it only seems to deal with revocation of membership as a sanction - the first step says "grounds for revocation". There are many other courses of action that may be deemed necessary, for instance training courses or warnings: you can have behaviour that is not ideal, or could be misconstrued, that needs dealing with, but is not against the rules.

    This document would not pass muster in some of the firms I've worked for.

    ACAS's view on grievance procedures:
    http://www.acas.org.uk/media/pdf/l/r/Bullying_and_harassment_employer_2010-accessible-version-July-2011.pdf

    (*) BTW, it is important for such documents to have version numbers and histories.

    I have no idea about the history. I assume they are current, and there is no issue over what rules/when.

    The disciplinary procedures are amplified in the English Constitution (2.6-2.10)
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/PDF/Election Policy/Constitution December 2012 edition_merged.pdf

    and

    Membership Rules (Section 7)
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/English Membership Rules.pdf

    It is quite clear Webster screwed up by recommending an apology, which was ultra vires and of no effect.

    No further action based on Rennard's refusal to comply with this can be taken by the party.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Economics Rundown

    UK Rightmove House Price index is out this morning, and shows that house prices accelerated to a 6.3% y-o-y increase in January from 5.4% in December.

    Also out today, Italian industrial orders, and Belgian consumer confidence.

    It's a quiet day.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    rcs1000 said:

    Economics Rundown

    UK Rightmove House Price index is out this morning, and shows that house prices accelerated to a 6.3% y-o-y increase in January from 5.4% in December.

    Also out today, Italian industrial orders, and Belgian consumer confidence.

    It's a quiet day.

    Oh yes, and a side note, Moody's has upgraded Ireland, and Irish five year bond yields have now fallen below the UK. From double digit "the country is bust" rates just three and a half year ago, Ireland now pays just 1.63% for five year money.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Clegg's 'announcement on mental health drive' interview on R4 Today derailed by Rennard - Clegg has not, and will not speak to Rennard.....
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014


    Was that process in place when the allegations were first made years ago? (*)

    Which is precisely why Clegg, Rennard and the lib dems are in the mess they now are.
    The idea that all this was preceded by an open, thorough and satisfactory handling of the Rennard debacle is quite simply farcical. Hence the current chaos.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Justin Webb is interviewing Nick Clegg.

    Webb says Clegg is making a speech on mental health today. But Clegg also has to deal with the Rennard affair today.

    Q: Have you spoken to Rennard?

    No, says Clegg.

    Q: Why not?

    Because it is not my job to micro-manage this. Clegg says he has a duty of care to the women involved. And he has to uphold the integrity of the party's disciplinary procedures.

    The inquiry found that there was not enough evidence of an offence, but that distress had been caused, and apology was in order.

    Q: What's the point if he does not mean an apology?

    Clegg says he expects people in his party to treat people with decency.

    Q: Why won't you say that to him yourself? It sounds as if you are frightened of it, because you don't want to take sides.

    Clegg says he should remain fair and objective about what should happen.

    All he has to do is, as a duty of care to the women, make sure that the recommendations in the report are upheld.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jan/20/nick-cleggs-today-interview-on-the-lord-rennard-affair-politics-live-blog
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    rcs1000 said:

    Economics Rundown

    UK Rightmove House Price index is out this morning, and shows that house prices accelerated to a 6.3% y-o-y increase in January from 5.4% in December.

    Also out today, Italian industrial orders, and Belgian consumer confidence.

    It's a quiet day.

    Actually, I'm being a bit Euro-centric. China reported Q4 GDP numbers, which were - depending on the way you look at them - either bang in line, or very slightly weaker than expected. That said, who wouldn't want an economy that grew 7.7% year-over-year?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    A forced apology means very little. A true apology incorporates a degree of repentance and determination to act differently in the future. I cannot see that Rennard has the degree of insight into acceptable behaviour in the workplace. Actions that are not criminal can still be disciplinary events.

    If he behaves innapropriately with another member of staff he will not get off lightly, as all eyes will be upon him. I suspect that any appearance at the spring conference will be uncomfortable also.

    RodCrosby said:



    Was that process in place when the allegations were first made years ago? (*)

    There also seems to be a rather big hole in it: it only seems to deal with revocation of membership as a sanction - the first step says "grounds for revocation". There are many other courses of action that may be deemed necessary, for instance training courses or warnings: you can have behaviour that is not ideal, or could be misconstrued, that needs dealing with, but is not against the rules.

    This document would not pass muster in some of the firms I've worked for.

    ACAS's view on grievance procedures:
    http://www.acas.org.uk/media/pdf/l/r/Bullying_and_harassment_employer_2010-accessible-version-July-2011.pdf

    (*) BTW, it is important for such documents to have version numbers and histories.

    I have no idea about the history. I assume they are current, and there is no issue over what rules/when.

    The disciplinary procedures are amplified in the English Constitution (2.6-2.10)
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/PDF/Election Policy/Constitution December 2012 edition_merged.pdf

    and

    Membership Rules (Section 7)
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/English Membership Rules.pdf

    It is quite clear Webster screwed up by recommending an apology, which was ultra vires and of no effect.

    No further action based on Rennard's refusal to comply with this can be taken by the party.
  • DavidL (7.59am) said I genuinely fear that the right is disintegrating to a point where they have little to offer the country, certainly not a coherent and credible government offering real world solutions. Some of this comes from years in pointless opposition, some from the poison of Thatcher's downfall, some from drawing so many of their members from people of a certain age. Given the alternative of Miliband & co it is a real problem for the future of the country.

    I suspect that the ageing of activists is not a problem for the Tories alone. The ways in which the Internet has changed political activism are hardly understood by any Party (except possibly the Pirates about whom I know only what I read here, which leads me to think they're more of a social club than anything else).

    This, together with the prospect of declining living standards into the foreseeable future and beyond, is what leads me to talk of the "Weimarization" of our representative democracy. It can only go on delivering something for nothing - which, through imperialism and then North Sea Oil it has throughout its existence, for so long. Now, apparently, fracking is going to save it. I wonder.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Mick_Pork said:


    Was that process in place when the allegations were first made years ago? (*)

    Which is precisely why Clegg, Rennard and the lib dems are in the mess they now are.
    The idea that all this was preceded by an open, thorough and satisfactory handling of the Rennard debacle is quite simply farcical. Hence the current chaos.
    As I said when this broke last year, it's clear that the Lib Dems either did not have a robust process that would cope with a party grandee, or did not implement that process for some reason.

    As usual, it's the cover-up that causes the pain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Good morning, everyone.

    I must admit I called this Rennard business 100% wrong. Clegg's in a rather difficult position.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    Stepping back from the brink? Doesn't really look that way.
    Lord Rennard is victim of political conspiracy, say his allies

    Former Lib Dem chief executive's legal adviser warns that dispute over sexual harassment allegations could end up in court

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/19/lord-rennard-allies-allege-political-conspiracy
    This has the potential to rumble on for months. Rennard is not short of those he helped up the career ladder in the lib dems or indeed short of some no doubt rather messy internal knowledge of the party leadership and higher ups.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566
    It's clearly nice to be favoured, but the "favourable" rating has the problem of mixing "I like him" with "He's leading my party successfully". The former could influence voting intention, the latter generally doesn't, because they still think it's their party. All the leaders are broadly unpopular with supporters of other parties, but Labour supporters (who feel we should be streets ahead) and LibDems (who worry about the decline in ratings) are restive on the second point, like supporters of a football team who worry that the team isn't winning every match. It doesn't turn them into potential supporters of another team.

    Reading the Rennard articles today, the crisis is probably going to be suspended in the next day or two - the English party committee at lunchtime seems likely to suspend him, and it's not clear that he really does have a majority of peers. THe snag is that it seems likely to rumble on for a while: Clegg's best hope is that everyone gets bored with it and stops paying attention.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    On the plus side for Clegg, this is likely to be over by the start of the election campaign proper. If this had happened in 14 months or so it'd be even worse.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RodCrosby said:

    LibDem disciplinary procedures (guide and helpful flowchart).
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf

    They are quite exemplary and fair, and the LDs have a both a duty and no option but to accept Rennard's innocence, and forget about the matter.

    Talk of further action against him is madness, and I have no doubt such would be injuncted by the courts...

    "It deals only with complaints made against individual Party members under the Membership Rules which might lead to their membership of the Party being revoked. Other parts of the Rules (Council Group discipline for example) are worthy of guides in themselves and are not considered here."

    I dont see how this guide shows that the LDs have a duty and no option but to allow Rennard back into the parliamentary party, it explicitly doesnt deal with parliamentary party rules or procedures.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Mick_Pork said:


    Was that process in place when the allegations were first made years ago? (*)

    Which is precisely why Clegg, Rennard and the lib dems are in the mess they now are.
    The idea that all this was preceded by an open, thorough and satisfactory handling of the Rennard debacle is quite simply farcical. Hence the current chaos.
    As I said when this broke last year, it's clear that the Lib Dems either did not have a robust process that would cope with a party grandee, or did not implement that process for some reason.

    As usual, it's the cover-up that causes the pain.
    Where is your evidence for a cover-up? They have followed procedure up to a point and cleared him (insufficient evidence of sexual impropriety, which was the substantive charge).
  • @Morris - the Liberals can't get much lower, so this little local difficulty will make much difference. It's one for the anoraks.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RodCrosby said:


    Where is your evidence for a cover-up?

    (1) The time-lag between the original complaints being made and becoming public.
    (2) Saying that his departure as Chief Executive was due to health reasons when these allegations clearly also played a role.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mick_Pork said:


    And now on Radio Four, it's the UKIP Shipping Forecast. https://soundcloud.com/nicholas-pegg/ukip-shipping-forecast

    R4 Today played it this morning......

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    RodCrosby said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    Was that process in place when the allegations were first made years ago? (*)

    Which is precisely why Clegg, Rennard and the lib dems are in the mess they now are.
    The idea that all this was preceded by an open, thorough and satisfactory handling of the Rennard debacle is quite simply farcical. Hence the current chaos.
    As I said when this broke last year, it's clear that the Lib Dems either did not have a robust process that would cope with a party grandee, or did not implement that process for some reason.

    As usual, it's the cover-up that causes the pain.
    Where is your evidence for a cover-up? They have followed procedure up to a point and cleared him (insufficient evidence of sexual impropriety, which was the substantive charge).
    You have not proved that they followed procedure back when the allegations were first made. That document does not necessarily cover what he was accused of doing, and dates to 2013.

    Indeed, the whole way it was dealt with smacks of an abuse of process, if there was a process: meetings between top people, no formal written down documentation, sordid agreements for Rennard to step down 'for health reasons'.

    ISTR there was no paper trail for how the accusations were dealt with at the time. That's a big no-no, for a start, and its absence led to the problems last year.
  • @Morris - the Liberals can't get much lower, so this little local difficulty will not make much difference. It's one for the anoraks. It's similar to the Ashcroft stuff at the last election or the Falkirk stuff - not salient.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PeterMannionMP: Clegg on Rennard coming dangerously close to "There goes my party.  I must follow it, for I am their leader”.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ukip are doing what Cam couldn't.

    Detoxing the Con image ( all relative. .)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2014
    Neil said:


    "It deals only with complaints made against individual Party members under the Membership Rules which might lead to their membership of the Party being revoked. Other parts of the Rules (Council Group discipline for example) are worthy of guides in themselves and are not considered here."

    I dont see how this guide shows that the LDs have a duty and no option but to allow Rennard back into the parliamentary party, it explicitly doesnt deal with parliamentary party rules or procedures.

    I was talking about further action under the rules I quoted.

    I have not yet discovered any public rules for the LD HoL group, but according to media reports...

    i) Rennard is already back in receipt of the whip, since being cleared by the Investigating QC last week.

    ii) any removal of the whip at this stage would have to be ratified by the LD HoL group, and the word is they won't.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: I understand @libdems regional parties committee meeting this morning where set to instigate disciplinary proceedings against @LordRennard

    @BBCNormanS: More than 50 @LibDems have written to Party HQ protesting at conduct of @LordRennard .
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    @Scott_P

    The fools. It can't fly.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RodCrosby said:

    Neil said:


    "It deals only with complaints made against individual Party members under the Membership Rules which might lead to their membership of the Party being revoked. Other parts of the Rules (Council Group discipline for example) are worthy of guides in themselves and are not considered here."

    I dont see how this guide shows that the LDs have a duty and no option but to allow Rennard back into the parliamentary party, it explicitly doesnt deal with parliamentary party rules or procedures.

    I was talking about further action under the rules I quoted.

    I think the main issue today is his membership of the parliamentary party.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Murray beats Robert 6:1 6:2 6:7 6:2

    He'll play either Tsonga or Federer in the QF.
  • On topic - this is no doubt the reason we see such blunt tactics on social media to lay every supposed fault in Govt at Cameron's feet, they are trying to break down exactly this.

    It's been going on for months and is about as subtle as Ed's face when drinking a sip of beer.

    TSE - COYS!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    TGOHF said:

    Ukip are doing what Cam couldn't.

    Detoxing the Con image ( all relative. .)

    And yet, the public view UKIP more favourably than they view the Conservatives.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    In odd news, Vanessa Mae is to compete in the Winter Olympics:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/winter-olympics/25802907

    Saw her perform once, quite a long time ago.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    RodCrosby said:

    LibDem disciplinary procedures (guide and helpful flowchart).
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf

    They are quite exemplary and fair, and the LDs have a both a duty and no option but to accept Rennard's innocence, and forget about the matter.

    Talk of further action against him is madness, and I have no doubt such would be injuncted by the courts...

    The problem is that the Lib Dems seem to place rules that look good in theory ahead of one that work in the hard practice of the political world.

    In placing the burden of proof at 'beyond reasonable doubt', what inevitably happens is that when someone would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (as it would be in a normal employment hearing), but where the case has some uncertainty, the position of the individual becomes untenable. Perhaps this hasn't mattered in the past, when any members charged with discaplinary procedings have been lower profile, but it does now the Lib Dems are in government and scrutiny is higher.

    I don't know whether Rennard would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (though the reports comments about the credibility of the witnesses gives some suggestion as to what the author thinks), but had that burden of proof been applied, the Lib Dems would now be in a much better position whatever the finding.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Joey Jones rightly saying the report gives "ample scope for confusion."

    [my comment] The LDs should go back and read their rules before making themselves look even more ridiculous...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Labour have not made anything like enough of an attempt to trash David Cameron's brand. The Conservatives have been much more effective at ruining the public perception of Ed Miliband.

    If I were the Conservatives, I'd now be seeking to make Nigel Farage look like a loudmouthed fool. Candidly, I'm astonished they haven't really begun that process.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Norman Smith tweets: Sources close to @LordRennard say he will seek judicial review of any decision to suspend him from the party @LibDems
  • Scott_P said:

    @PeterMannionMP: Clegg on Rennard coming dangerously close to "There goes my party.  I must follow it, for I am their leader”.

    I think you are making the classic error of amplifying the negative impact of an issue on your opponents. It happens all the time on PB - before I delurked there were minute-by-minute updates on the Falkirk stuff, which had no impact at all on Labour, as any neutral observer would have seen from the outset. Labourites were just as bad about Ashcroft.

    The great danger of Rennard is Conservatives will slaver over it, wasting yet more valuable time that could be spent dealing with the very serious problems for their own party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    antifrank said:

    Labour have not made anything like enough of an attempt to trash David Cameron's brand. The Conservatives have been much more effective at ruining the public perception of Ed Miliband.

    When ?

    I must have missed that...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Clegg has won the influential support of Lord Macdonald, the former director of public prosecutions and a Liberal Democrat. Macdonald said the official party inquiry into Rennard's behaviour had shown there was broadly credible evidence that he had violated the space of women and caused distress.

    He said Rennard could not cherrypick the inquiry's findings, which had ruled that he should not be disciplined, but should apologise for causing distress even if he had done so inadvertently.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/20/nick-clegg-lord-rennard-no-apology-no-whip
  • In odd news, Vanessa Mae is to compete in the Winter Olympics:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/winter-olympics/25802907

    Saw her perform once, quite a long time ago.

    Wasn't she the one who causes the financial crisis? Ah, no, that was her sister Fannie.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    antifrank said:

    Labour have not made anything like enough of an attempt to trash David Cameron's brand. The Conservatives have been much more effective at ruining the public perception of Ed Miliband.

    If I were the Conservatives, I'd now be seeking to make Nigel Farage look like a loudmouthed fool. Candidly, I'm astonished they haven't really begun that process.

    They don't want to give UKIP publicity. And half the right wing press is sympathetic to Farage in a way they're not sympathetic to Miliband. So, they'd fight back on his behalf.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737


    The problem is that the Lib Dems seem to place rules that look good in theory ahead of one that work in the hard practice of the political world.

    In placing the burden of proof at 'beyond reasonable doubt', what inevitably happens is that when someone would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (as it would be in a normal employment hearing), but where the case has some uncertainty, the position of the individual becomes untenable. Perhaps this hasn't mattered in the past, when any members charged with discaplinary procedings have been lower profile, but it does now the Lib Dems are in government and scrutiny is higher.

    I don't know whether Rennard would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (though the reports comments about the credibility of the witnesses gives some suggestion as to what the author thinks), but had that burden of proof been applied, the Lib Dems would now be in a much better position whatever the finding.

    What you seem to be saying is that rules should be re-cast purely for Rennard to convict him at any price.

    Why should the burden of proof for a very serious charge (sexual impropriety) be lowered, when doubtless the existing rules have been implemented successfully for mundane matters of discipline over the years. Or has no-one in the Libdems ever been successfully disciplined because the burden of proof is too high?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Clegg has won the influential support of Lord Macdonald, the former director of public prosecutions and a Liberal Democrat. Macdonald said the official party inquiry into Rennard's behaviour had shown there was broadly credible evidence that he had violated the space of women and caused distress.

    He said Rennard could not cherrypick the inquiry's findings, which had ruled that he should not be disciplined, but should apologise for causing distress even if he had done so inadvertently.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/20/nick-clegg-lord-rennard-no-apology-no-whip

    That is just one QC's personal opinion of another QC's personal opinion. It is not good legal advice.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip are doing what Cam couldn't.

    Detoxing the Con image ( all relative. .)

    And yet, the public view UKIP more favourably than they view the Conservatives.

    "UKIP weather" not "Tory weather" making the weather today.

    Ukip becoming a byword for white male intolerance - takes the heat off the Tories.



  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I see that Rod Crosby has a new hobbyhorse. Has anyone found Lord Rennard's birth certificate?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    antifrank said:

    I see that Rod Crosby has a new hobbyhorse. Has anyone found Lord Rennard's birth certificate?

    I'll be passing Liverpool Record Office this afternoon. I'll pop in...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    RodCrosby said:


    The problem is that the Lib Dems seem to place rules that look good in theory ahead of one that work in the hard practice of the political world.

    In placing the burden of proof at 'beyond reasonable doubt', what inevitably happens is that when someone would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (as it would be in a normal employment hearing), but where the case has some uncertainty, the position of the individual becomes untenable. Perhaps this hasn't mattered in the past, when any members charged with discaplinary procedings have been lower profile, but it does now the Lib Dems are in government and scrutiny is higher.

    I don't know whether Rennard would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (though the reports comments about the credibility of the witnesses gives some suggestion as to what the author thinks), but had that burden of proof been applied, the Lib Dems would now be in a much better position whatever the finding.

    What you seem to be saying is that rules should be re-cast purely for Rennard to convict him at any price.

    Why should the burden of proof for a very serious charge (sexual impropriety) be lowered, when doubtless the existing rules have been implemented successfully for mundane matters of discipline over the years. Or has no-one in the Libdems ever been successfully disciplined because the burden of proof is too high?
    That's not what I'm saying at all. My point is that the burden of proof for all cases should be on the balance of probability (OTBOP), as it is in employment hearings - the nearest equivalent, to my thinking. It's not a criminal case and shouldn't be treated as such. If there is evidence for genuinely serious cases, then it should be for the courts to deal with it.

    I don't have a firm view about the Rennard allegations. However, if *any individual accused* is found not guilty OTBOP, it would make it far easier to dismiss the complainants' concerns that the hadn't received justice. On the other hand, were the person found quilty, job done. If a case lands in the limbo zone of 50-95% probability, it places everyone in difficulty and my guess is that the only reason this hasn't been an issue before is that the press and public weren't that bothered about any of the cases.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    before I delurked there were minute-by-minute updates on the Falkirk stuff, which had no impact at all on Labour, as any neutral observer would have seen from the outset. Labourites were just as bad about Ashcroft.

    Those were process issues involving people noone had ever heard of. This is an entire parliamentary party appearing to have a very relaxed view of what kind of behaviour it is acceptable for senior male executives to display towards more junior women in an organisation. It's not going to concern vast swathes of the population but it will have a significant impact on certain groups of voters (and activists).
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    RodCrosby said:

    LibDem disciplinary procedures (guide and helpful flowchart).
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf

    They are quite exemplary and fair, and the LDs have a both a duty and no option but to accept Rennard's innocence, and forget about the matter.

    Talk of further action against him is madness, and I have no doubt such would be injuncted by the courts...

    The problem is that the Lib Dems seem to place rules that look good in theory ahead of one that work in the hard practice of the political world.

    In placing the burden of proof at 'beyond reasonable doubt', what inevitably happens is that when someone would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (as it would be in a normal employment hearing), but where the case has some uncertainty, the position of the individual becomes untenable. Perhaps this hasn't mattered in the past, when any members charged with discaplinary procedings have been lower profile, but it does now the Lib Dems are in government and scrutiny is higher.

    I don't know whether Rennard would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (though the reports comments about the credibility of the witnesses gives some suggestion as to what the author thinks), but had that burden of proof been applied, the Lib Dems would now be in a much better position whatever the finding.
    You should read the Conservative Party Constitution and the sections on disciplinary procedure and you will see that " it too would look good in theory but not work in the hard practice of the political world "
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Surely a couple of QC's know the law fairly well? If not, who does!
    RodCrosby said:

    Clegg has won the influential support of Lord Macdonald, the former director of public prosecutions and a Liberal Democrat. Macdonald said the official party inquiry into Rennard's behaviour had shown there was broadly credible evidence that he had violated the space of women and caused distress.

    He said Rennard could not cherrypick the inquiry's findings, which had ruled that he should not be disciplined, but should apologise for causing distress even if he had done so inadvertently.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/20/nick-clegg-lord-rennard-no-apology-no-whip

    That is just one QC's personal opinion of another QC's personal opinion. It is not good legal advice.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip are doing what Cam couldn't.

    Detoxing the Con image ( all relative. .)

    And yet, the public view UKIP more favourably than they view the Conservatives.

    "UKIP weather" not "Tory weather" making the weather today.

    Ukip becoming a byword for white male intolerance - takes the heat off the Tories.



    I'm not sure why, in political discussions, being "White, male" is treated as being somehow reprehensible.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    RodCrosby said:

    LibDem disciplinary procedures (guide and helpful flowchart).
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf

    They are quite exemplary and fair, and the LDs have a both a duty and no option but to accept Rennard's innocence, and forget about the matter.

    Talk of further action against him is madness, and I have no doubt such would be injuncted by the courts...

    The problem is that the Lib Dems seem to place rules that look good in theory ahead of one that work in the hard practice of the political world.

    In placing the burden of proof at 'beyond reasonable doubt', what inevitably happens is that when someone would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (as it would be in a normal employment hearing), but where the case has some uncertainty, the position of the individual becomes untenable. Perhaps this hasn't mattered in the past, when any members charged with discaplinary procedings have been lower profile, but it does now the Lib Dems are in government and scrutiny is higher.

    I don't know whether Rennard would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (though the reports comments about the credibility of the witnesses gives some suggestion as to what the author thinks), but had that burden of proof been applied, the Lib Dems would now be in a much better position whatever the finding.
    You should read the Conservative Party Constitution and the sections on disciplinary procedure and you will see that " it too would look good in theory but not work in the hard practice of the political world "
    I have had the experience as a then constituency chairman of taking disciplinary proceedings to expel a member (and councillor). I found the rules to be up to the job.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Surely a couple of QC's know the law fairly well? If not, who does!

    RodCrosby said:

    Clegg has won the influential support of Lord Macdonald, the former director of public prosecutions and a Liberal Democrat. Macdonald said the official party inquiry into Rennard's behaviour had shown there was broadly credible evidence that he had violated the space of women and caused distress.

    He said Rennard could not cherrypick the inquiry's findings, which had ruled that he should not be disciplined, but should apologise for causing distress even if he had done so inadvertently.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/20/nick-clegg-lord-rennard-no-apology-no-whip

    That is just one QC's personal opinion of another QC's personal opinion. It is not good legal advice.
    Thy know the value of a caveat.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RodCrosby said:

    Clegg has won the influential support of Lord Macdonald, the former director of public prosecutions and a Liberal Democrat. Macdonald said the official party inquiry into Rennard's behaviour had shown there was broadly credible evidence that he had violated the space of women and caused distress.

    He said Rennard could not cherrypick the inquiry's findings, which had ruled that he should not be disciplined, but should apologise for causing distress even if he had done so inadvertently.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/20/nick-clegg-lord-rennard-no-apology-no-whip

    That is just one QC's personal opinion of another QC's personal opinion. It is not good legal advice.
    It doesnt look like legal advice to me - it looks like perfectly sensible advice on how to behave in life. If you behave in a way that provokes people into making broadly credible formal complaints then an apology is a good idea.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    RodCrosby said:

    LibDem disciplinary procedures (guide and helpful flowchart).
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf

    They are quite exemplary and fair, and the LDs have a both a duty and no option but to accept Rennard's innocence, and forget about the matter.

    Talk of further action against him is madness, and I have no doubt such would be injuncted by the courts...

    The problem is that the Lib Dems seem to place rules that look good in theory ahead of one that work in the hard practice of the political world.

    In placing the burden of proof at 'beyond reasonable doubt', what inevitably happens is that when someone would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (as it would be in a normal employment hearing), but where the case has some uncertainty, the position of the individual becomes untenable. Perhaps this hasn't mattered in the past, when any members charged with discaplinary procedings have been lower profile, but it does now the Lib Dems are in government and scrutiny is higher.

    I don't know whether Rennard would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (though the reports comments about the credibility of the witnesses gives some suggestion as to what the author thinks), but had that burden of proof been applied, the Lib Dems would now be in a much better position whatever the finding.
    You should read the Conservative Party Constitution and the sections on disciplinary procedure and you will see that " it too would look good in theory but not work in the hard practice of the political world "
    I have had the experience as a then constituency chairman of taking disciplinary proceedings to expel a member (and councillor). I found the rules to be up to the job.
    And I expect the rules in the Lib Dem Constitution would work work well and be up to the job in 99% of cases .
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RodCrosby said:

    Clegg has won the influential support of Lord Macdonald, the former director of public prosecutions and a Liberal Democrat. Macdonald said the official party inquiry into Rennard's behaviour had shown there was broadly credible evidence that he had violated the space of women and caused distress.

    He said Rennard could not cherrypick the inquiry's findings, which had ruled that he should not be disciplined, but should apologise for causing distress even if he had done so inadvertently.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/20/nick-clegg-lord-rennard-no-apology-no-whip

    That is just one QC's personal opinion of another QC's personal opinion. It is not good legal advice.
    I think the most telling comment on legal advice in this is Ashdown's on Carlile's advice to Rennard - that Carlile may be a good lawyer but a poor friend....
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    @david_herdson

    I don't want to sound churlish but who are you exactly to suggest what the rules of the LibDems should be?

    These rules have not been imposed by some nameless body, but rather crafted by the members themselves to run their party in the way they see fit.

    But when the procedures don't deliver the outcome one faction desires they run around squawking.

    Secondly, it appears you are confused, and in fact Webster found OTBOP for Rennard.

    Guidance and flowchart "The Role of Investigator", point 6
    "a useful question to ask yourself is whether there is a realistic prospect (i.e. a 51% chance) that any of those grounds are made out.... If not, you should recommend they take no further action."
    http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    1,355 days into this most inept, vindictive and appalling government.

    Fortunately less than 472 days left until it can be ceremoniously dumped from office.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This should be a big story but won't be:

    http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2014/january/dramatic-fall-in-non-eu-students-at-uk-universities-appears-to-justify-immigration-policy-fears-says-expert/

    "As well as the 25% fall in the number of Indian students enrolling in UK universities over the past year, HESA's figures showed a 32% drop in numbers between 2010/11 and 2011/12. This means that the number of new Indian students has almost halved in the past two years, falling from 23,985 in 2010/11 to 12,280 in 2012/13."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    1,355 days into this most inept, vindictive and appalling government.

    Fortunately less than 472 days left until it can be ceremoniously dumped from office.

    You missing the days of illegal wars and financial meltdown ?
  • On Rennard:

    Are parties not really clubs in nature? Can members not choose to expel someone? Surely an individual has no right to be a member of a body that no-one else wants them to be in. If the LDs abhor Rennard despite being unable to prove his guilt beyond reasonable doubt can they not just vote him out of the party?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Patrick said:

    On Rennard:

    Are parties not really clubs in nature? Can members not choose to expel someone? Surely an individual has no right to be a member of a body that no-one else wants them to be in. If the LDs abhor Rennard despite being unable to prove his guilt beyond reasonable doubt can they not just vote him out of the party?

    Rennard appears to care not for the damage he is doing to the party - why would you want someone who puts self before party in your party ?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    BenM said:

    1,355 days into this most inept, vindictive and appalling government.

    Fortunately less than 472 days left until it can be ceremoniously dumped from office.

    Do you really believe this, inept, vindictive and appalling?

    Can you run through the inept, vindictive and appalling policies that they have introduced and what Labour's plans are to rectify them

    What do you think of Hollande's government in France?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Patrick said:

    On Rennard:

    Are parties not really clubs in nature? Can members not choose to expel someone? Surely an individual has no right to be a member of a body that no-one else wants them to be in. If the LDs abhor Rennard despite being unable to prove his guilt beyond reasonable doubt can they not just vote him out of the party?

    No , parties have a Constitution and rules on disciplinary action / expulsion which they have to follow . It appears that not all LDs abhor Rennard and in particular the majority of LD members of the HofL do not .
  • antifrank said:

    Labour have not made anything like enough of an attempt to trash David Cameron's brand. The Conservatives have been much more effective at ruining the public perception of Ed Miliband.

    If I were the Conservatives, I'd now be seeking to make Nigel Farage look like a loudmouthed fool. Candidly, I'm astonished they haven't really begun that process.

    I think the Tory strategy is/will be to say, yeah Farage is ok, but look at the assorted fruitcakes and loonies that make up UKIP.

    Like osmosis, Farage will be damaged
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    This should be a big story but won't be:

    http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2014/january/dramatic-fall-in-non-eu-students-at-uk-universities-appears-to-justify-immigration-policy-fears-says-expert/

    "As well as the 25% fall in the number of Indian students enrolling in UK universities over the past year, HESA's figures showed a 32% drop in numbers between 2010/11 and 2011/12. This means that the number of new Indian students has almost halved in the past two years, falling from 23,985 in 2010/11 to 12,280 in 2012/13."

    I am shocked that David Cameron puts good newspaper headlines before good policy. Shocked I tell you.

    I'm so relieved that it is such a rare defect among our political leaders and it is so reassuring that the British public can see through such pandering, leading to Cameron's terrible favourability ratings... Oh. Dear.
  • Patrick said:

    On Rennard:

    Are parties not really clubs in nature? Can members not choose to expel someone? Surely an individual has no right to be a member of a body that no-one else wants them to be in. If the LDs abhor Rennard despite being unable to prove his guilt beyond reasonable doubt can they not just vote him out of the party?

    No , parties have a Constitution and rules on disciplinary action / expulsion which they have to follow . It appears that not all LDs abhor Rennard and in particular the majority of LD members of the HofL do not .
    Then he's untouchable, having been found not guilty, and they should just leave it alone now.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    antifrank said:

    Labour have not made anything like enough of an attempt to trash David Cameron's brand. The Conservatives have been much more effective at ruining the public perception of Ed Miliband.

    If I were the Conservatives, I'd now be seeking to make Nigel Farage look like a loudmouthed fool. Candidly, I'm astonished they haven't really begun that process.

    I think the Tory strategy is/will be to say, yeah Farage is ok, but look at the assorted fruitcakes and loonies that make up UKIP.

    Like osmosis, Farage will be damaged
    Although if UKIP get there act together and have a campaign headlined by Farage, Paul Nuttall and Diane James (for example) - they show diversity and differing backgrounds, whilst distinctly non-nutty - which would neuter that line of attack.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 26 secs
    Sky News learns that the International Monetary Fund is set to upgrade the UK's growth forecast more than any other major economy

    Poor old labour....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Labour have not made anything like enough of an attempt to trash David Cameron's brand. The Conservatives have been much more effective at ruining the public perception of Ed Miliband.

    If I were the Conservatives, I'd now be seeking to make Nigel Farage look like a loudmouthed fool. Candidly, I'm astonished they haven't really begun that process.

    I think the Tory strategy is/will be to say, yeah Farage is ok, but look at the assorted fruitcakes and loonies that make up UKIP.

    Like osmosis, Farage will be damaged
    That's not enough for the Conservatives. They urgently need to damage Nigel Farage personally. It should be easy enough: he's a second-rater who hasn't yet had much scrutiny.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Economics Rundown

    UK Rightmove House Price index is out this morning, and shows that house prices accelerated to a 6.3% y-o-y increase in January from 5.4% in December.

    Also out today, Italian industrial orders, and Belgian consumer confidence.

    It's a quiet day.

    Actually, I'm being a bit Euro-centric. China reported Q4 GDP numbers, which were - depending on the way you look at them - either bang in line, or very slightly weaker than expected. That said, who wouldn't want an economy that grew 7.7% year-over-year?
    Well, the Chinese apparently. I thought 8% was the growth figure they wanted to maintain in order for their economy to produce enough jobs to absorb rural migrants and prevent economic issues igniting political unrest.

    Maybe the economy has reached the stage where there are fewer rural migrants left who are looking for jobs, and a lower growth rate is enough, but I don't know enough to make that sort of judgement.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 26 secs
    Sky News learns that the International Monetary Fund is set to upgrade the UK's growth forecast more than any other major economy

    Poor old labour....

    Sounds inept and appalling...

  • Lennon said:

    antifrank said:

    Labour have not made anything like enough of an attempt to trash David Cameron's brand. The Conservatives have been much more effective at ruining the public perception of Ed Miliband.

    If I were the Conservatives, I'd now be seeking to make Nigel Farage look like a loudmouthed fool. Candidly, I'm astonished they haven't really begun that process.

    I think the Tory strategy is/will be to say, yeah Farage is ok, but look at the assorted fruitcakes and loonies that make up UKIP.

    Like osmosis, Farage will be damaged
    Although if UKIP get there act together and have a campaign headlined by Farage, Paul Nuttall and Diane James (for example) - they show diversity and differing backgrounds, whilst distinctly non-nutty - which would neuter that line of attack.
    But will the media really report that, what will really interest the media and social media is things like the Kippers that believe the floods were caused by gay marriage, or the Kipper that says

    'I actually agree with the EDL on what they protest about'
  • TGOHF said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 26 secs
    Sky News learns that the International Monetary Fund is set to upgrade the UK's growth forecast more than any other major economy

    Poor old labour....

    Sounds inept and appalling...

    What about vindictive?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Patrick said:

    On Rennard:

    Are parties not really clubs in nature? Can members not choose to expel someone? Surely an individual has no right to be a member of a body that no-one else wants them to be in. If the LDs abhor Rennard despite being unable to prove his guilt beyond reasonable doubt can they not just vote him out of the party?

    Yes they are basically clubs, and no the members can not choose to expel someone, unless they have crafted their own rules to permit such, and even then they almost certainly could not expel someone on a whim, or for trivia reasons.

    Most sensible, bona fide organizations recognize the necessity to act in good faith and according to the principles of natural justice [the courts as a matter of public policy may impose such constraints on them, if not].

    Consequently, the rules usually provide for a domestic tribunal to hear complaints and act in a quasi-judicial capacity, leading possibly to any sanction as may be provided in the rules.

    The standards of behaviour in clubs are a matter for the members themselves, and the courts are loathe to become involved. However, they WILL get involved on any of the following grounds.

    i) the club's rules have not been followed.

    ii) whether or not explicitly included in the rules, the principles of natural justice have not been followed.

    iii) there is evidence of mala fides
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Patrick said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 26 secs
    Sky News learns that the International Monetary Fund is set to upgrade the UK's growth forecast more than any other major economy

    Poor old labour....

    Sounds inept and appalling...

    What about vindictive?
    Vindictively stealing growth from the French ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Economics Rundown

    UK Rightmove House Price index is out this morning, and shows that house prices accelerated to a 6.3% y-o-y increase in January from 5.4% in December.

    Also out today, Italian industrial orders, and Belgian consumer confidence.

    It's a quiet day.

    Actually, I'm being a bit Euro-centric. China reported Q4 GDP numbers, which were - depending on the way you look at them - either bang in line, or very slightly weaker than expected. That said, who wouldn't want an economy that grew 7.7% year-over-year?
    Well, the Chinese apparently. I thought 8% was the growth figure they wanted to maintain in order for their economy to produce enough jobs to absorb rural migrants and prevent economic issues igniting political unrest.

    Maybe the economy has reached the stage where there are fewer rural migrants left who are looking for jobs, and a lower growth rate is enough, but I don't know enough to make that sort of judgement.
    There is actually a good reason to be very cautious about China right now. Private sector debt is rising much faster than economic growth. Between 2007 and 2012, private sector debt in the UK fell by about 30% of GDP, while in China it rose by the same amount. There are also good reasons to believe that the true level of debt in China much higher than the published number, with a very substantial "shadow banking sector". The negative case is that - following in the footsteps of Spain in the 2000s - each incremental dollar of GDP requires an increasing amount of debt. In addition, and this will surprise many, exports as a percentage of GDP are now higher in the UK than in China, a sharp reversal of the situation five years ago.

    By the way, on the subject of "and the first shall be last", Italian industrial orders (a very good leading indicator) are out, and they're showing a sharp improvement - up 2.3% year-over-year, and about 1% ahead of expectations. While it's not exactly a UK-like number, it does suggest that the Italian economy is (very slowly) following the Irish and Spanish out of slump.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip are doing what Cam couldn't.

    Detoxing the Con image ( all relative. .)

    And yet, the public view UKIP more favourably than they view the Conservatives.

    "UKIP weather" not "Tory weather" making the weather today.

    Ukip becoming a byword for white male intolerance - takes the heat off the Tories.

    What's wrong with being a white male, or a white female for that matter. You sir, are a racist!

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2014
    Farage writes for the Express and the Sun often reads like a brochure for Ukip, so I don't think they need worry there... The Guardian hate ukip and childishly use unflattering photos of Farage whenever possible, but they are only reinforcing what anyone who buys that paper thinks anyway.

    The Mail are a bit bipolar on kippers from my experience, though they have published this story today about Farage suspending the recent Conservative defector, who had been saying the same kind of thing for years whilst with the Tories without censure

    "However, Mr Farage today suggested that the remarks had only become a story after Mr Silvester joined Ukip from the Tory party, where he had previously aired similar views.
    Speaking in a question-and-answer session in the City, the Ukip leader said: 'I think it is very interesting that, when Mr Silvester was saying these things in 2012 and 2013 as a Conservative town councillor in Henley, it was not a news story. But suddenly he switches to Ukip and continues the same thing and gets on the national news.
    'I think that shows you and tells you all you need to know. The establishment, the status quo, the big businesses, the big Eurocrats and our three so-called main political parties are scared witless by what Ukip is doing because we are striking a chord not just for ordinary people but for many elements in the business community as well."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542179/UKIP-councillor-says-God-sent-storms-battered-Britain-David-Cameron-allowed-gay-marriage-legalised.html
  • antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Labour have not made anything like enough of an attempt to trash David Cameron's brand. The Conservatives have been much more effective at ruining the public perception of Ed Miliband.

    If I were the Conservatives, I'd now be seeking to make Nigel Farage look like a loudmouthed fool. Candidly, I'm astonished they haven't really begun that process.

    I think the Tory strategy is/will be to say, yeah Farage is ok, but look at the assorted fruitcakes and loonies that make up UKIP.

    Like osmosis, Farage will be damaged
    That's not enough for the Conservatives. They urgently need to damage Nigel Farage personally. It should be easy enough: he's a second-rater who hasn't yet had much scrutiny.
    I'm sure during the European Election campaign, the Tory Party will be doing their best to damage him.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Off-topic:

    Green madness: destroying a wilderness to provide green power:
    http://alansloman.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/the-monadhliath-mountains-ring-of-steel.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Off-topic:

    Green madness: destroying a wilderness to provide green power:
    http://alansloman.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/the-monadhliath-mountains-ring-of-steel.html

    Not that the 'non-Green' energy industry has a very good record of wilderness conservation :-)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeK said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip are doing what Cam couldn't.

    Detoxing the Con image ( all relative. .)

    And yet, the public view UKIP more favourably than they view the Conservatives.

    "UKIP weather" not "Tory weather" making the weather today.

    Ukip becoming a byword for white male intolerance - takes the heat off the Tories.

    What's wrong with being a white male, or a white female for that matter. You sir, are a racist!

    Ah - the Salmond defence... pawn to c5.
This discussion has been closed.