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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron is the only leader to be viewed more favourably than his party
A very big part of US polling that we see rarely in the UK are favourability ratings. Questioning such as “Do you have a favourable/unfavourable view of Obama/Democrats/Congress/ etc” have been part and parcel of US polling data for years.
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Still handy to know though but if all the parties are viewed fairly negatively then not quite as telling as it could be.
Incidently, this might have been posted before but this is still very funny indeed for those who missed it and it seems to be going viral unsurprisingly enough. LOL
Yet another day of bad publicity for the police.
Ukip +90
Con +77
Cameron +73
Labour +70
Farage +64
Lib Dems +62
Miliband +42
Clegg +38
Among those aged 65+
Ukip -4
Con -5
Farage -5
Cameron -7
Lib Dems -43
Clegg -44
Labour -47
Miliband -53
http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf
They are quite exemplary and fair, and the LDs have a both a duty and no option but to accept Rennard's innocence, and forget about the matter.
Talk of further action against him is madness, and I have no doubt such would be injuncted by the courts...
What they fail to understand is that it is the attitude of many (albeit far from all) such people that might be putting off younger people from joining. I mean, who in their twenties would want to be stuck in a room with such a bunch of dinosaurs?
What do their views offer the modern young person? The main Conservative Party is trying to appeal to them in fairly Conservative ways: work hard and you'll get rewarded; if you genuinely fall on hard times, there is a safety net. It is a very different offer from Labour's.
Yet some issues - such as Europe - are blown up to such stupid levels compared to the other important issues. OGH is right when he points out that Europe isn't a major issue for most people, yet the dinosaurs repeatedly stick their heads in the sand (dinosaur ostriches?).
There has to be ideological purity. Anyone who attempts to divert from that track and deal with the real world has to be shunned. Hence the disconnect between their views and Cameron's ratings.
If it were not for UKIP's presence, they might well kill the party.
....but seemingly backtracking towards the end, over what he will do.
There also seems to be a rather big hole in it: it only seems to deal with revocation of membership as a sanction - the first step says "grounds for revocation". There are many other courses of action that may be deemed necessary, for instance training courses or warnings: you can have behaviour that is not ideal, or could be misconstrued, that needs dealing with, but is not against the rules.
This document would not pass muster in some of the firms I've worked for.
ACAS's view on grievance procedures:
http://www.acas.org.uk/media/pdf/l/r/Bullying_and_harassment_employer_2010-accessible-version-July-2011.pdf
(*) BTW, it is important for such documents to have version numbers and histories.
Lord Rennard to defy Nick Clegg and sit with Liberal Democrat peers, making victims feel 'physically sick'
Lord Rennard is planning to sit with Liberal Democrat peers on the Government benches in the House of Lords in open defiance of Nick Clegg.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10582963/Lord-Rennard-to-defy-Nick-Clegg-and-sit-with-Liberal-Democrat-peers-making-victims-feel-physically-sick.html
Rennard could sue if Clegg tries to kick him out of the Lib Dems
Friends of the former Lib Dem chief executive said he was being ‘lined up against the wall’
They said if Nick Clegg attempts to remove the whip they will take the case to the High Court
The Deputy Prime Minister is set to propose a second inquiry into the peer’s failure to say sorry for the alleged incidents
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542442/Rennard-sue-Clegg-tries-kick-Lib-Dems.html#ixzz2qvIikwj4
Nick Clegg battling to avert civil war in Lib Dems after Lord Rennard cleared of 'grope' claims
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lord-rennard-scandal-nick-clegg-3039914#ixzz2qvIzbAIP
Lord Rennard is victim of political conspiracy, say his allies
Former Lib Dem chief executive's legal adviser warns that dispute over sexual harassment allegations could end up in court
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/19/lord-rennard-allies-allege-political-conspiracy
For example Cameron and Osborne are clearly closet socialists as the budget deficit of £156bn was not wiped out in the first budget; because nominal spending has been broadly flat whilst real spending fell (wimps) ; because immigration was not just simply stopped or wished away (liars); because Cameron has been foolish enough to listen to the Lib Dems on whom he relies for a Parlaimentary majority (weaklings).
I genuinely fear that the right is disintegrating to a point where they have little to offer the country, certainly not a coherent and credible government offering real world solutions. Some of this comes from years in pointless opposition, some from the poison of Thatcher's downfall, some from drawing so many of their members from people of a certain age. Given the alternative of Miliband & co it is a real problem for the future of the country.
The disciplinary procedures are amplified in the English Constitution (2.6-2.10)
http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/PDF/Election Policy/Constitution December 2012 edition_merged.pdf
and
Membership Rules (Section 7)
http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/English Membership Rules.pdf
It is quite clear Webster screwed up by recommending an apology, which was ultra vires and of no effect.
No further action based on Rennard's refusal to comply with this can be taken by the party.
UK Rightmove House Price index is out this morning, and shows that house prices accelerated to a 6.3% y-o-y increase in January from 5.4% in December.
Also out today, Italian industrial orders, and Belgian consumer confidence.
It's a quiet day.
The idea that all this was preceded by an open, thorough and satisfactory handling of the Rennard debacle is quite simply farcical. Hence the current chaos.
Webb says Clegg is making a speech on mental health today. But Clegg also has to deal with the Rennard affair today.
Q: Have you spoken to Rennard?
No, says Clegg.
Q: Why not?
Because it is not my job to micro-manage this. Clegg says he has a duty of care to the women involved. And he has to uphold the integrity of the party's disciplinary procedures.
The inquiry found that there was not enough evidence of an offence, but that distress had been caused, and apology was in order.
Q: What's the point if he does not mean an apology?
Clegg says he expects people in his party to treat people with decency.
Q: Why won't you say that to him yourself? It sounds as if you are frightened of it, because you don't want to take sides.
Clegg says he should remain fair and objective about what should happen.
All he has to do is, as a duty of care to the women, make sure that the recommendations in the report are upheld.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jan/20/nick-cleggs-today-interview-on-the-lord-rennard-affair-politics-live-blog
If he behaves innapropriately with another member of staff he will not get off lightly, as all eyes will be upon him. I suspect that any appearance at the spring conference will be uncomfortable also.
I suspect that the ageing of activists is not a problem for the Tories alone. The ways in which the Internet has changed political activism are hardly understood by any Party (except possibly the Pirates about whom I know only what I read here, which leads me to think they're more of a social club than anything else).
This, together with the prospect of declining living standards into the foreseeable future and beyond, is what leads me to talk of the "Weimarization" of our representative democracy. It can only go on delivering something for nothing - which, through imperialism and then North Sea Oil it has throughout its existence, for so long. Now, apparently, fracking is going to save it. I wonder.
As usual, it's the cover-up that causes the pain.
I must admit I called this Rennard business 100% wrong. Clegg's in a rather difficult position.
Reading the Rennard articles today, the crisis is probably going to be suspended in the next day or two - the English party committee at lunchtime seems likely to suspend him, and it's not clear that he really does have a majority of peers. THe snag is that it seems likely to rumble on for a while: Clegg's best hope is that everyone gets bored with it and stops paying attention.
I dont see how this guide shows that the LDs have a duty and no option but to allow Rennard back into the parliamentary party, it explicitly doesnt deal with parliamentary party rules or procedures.
(2) Saying that his departure as Chief Executive was due to health reasons when these allegations clearly also played a role.
Indeed, the whole way it was dealt with smacks of an abuse of process, if there was a process: meetings between top people, no formal written down documentation, sordid agreements for Rennard to step down 'for health reasons'.
ISTR there was no paper trail for how the accusations were dealt with at the time. That's a big no-no, for a start, and its absence led to the problems last year.
Detoxing the Con image ( all relative. .)
I have not yet discovered any public rules for the LD HoL group, but according to media reports...
i) Rennard is already back in receipt of the whip, since being cleared by the Investigating QC last week.
ii) any removal of the whip at this stage would have to be ratified by the LD HoL group, and the word is they won't.
@BBCNormanS: More than 50 @LibDems have written to Party HQ protesting at conduct of @LordRennard .
The fools. It can't fly.
He'll play either Tsonga or Federer in the QF.
It's been going on for months and is about as subtle as Ed's face when drinking a sip of beer.
TSE - COYS!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/winter-olympics/25802907
Saw her perform once, quite a long time ago.
In placing the burden of proof at 'beyond reasonable doubt', what inevitably happens is that when someone would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (as it would be in a normal employment hearing), but where the case has some uncertainty, the position of the individual becomes untenable. Perhaps this hasn't mattered in the past, when any members charged with discaplinary procedings have been lower profile, but it does now the Lib Dems are in government and scrutiny is higher.
I don't know whether Rennard would have been found to have broken the rules on the balance of probability (though the reports comments about the credibility of the witnesses gives some suggestion as to what the author thinks), but had that burden of proof been applied, the Lib Dems would now be in a much better position whatever the finding.
[my comment] The LDs should go back and read their rules before making themselves look even more ridiculous...
If I were the Conservatives, I'd now be seeking to make Nigel Farage look like a loudmouthed fool. Candidly, I'm astonished they haven't really begun that process.
The great danger of Rennard is Conservatives will slaver over it, wasting yet more valuable time that could be spent dealing with the very serious problems for their own party.
I must have missed that...
He said Rennard could not cherrypick the inquiry's findings, which had ruled that he should not be disciplined, but should apologise for causing distress even if he had done so inadvertently.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/20/nick-clegg-lord-rennard-no-apology-no-whip
Why should the burden of proof for a very serious charge (sexual impropriety) be lowered, when doubtless the existing rules have been implemented successfully for mundane matters of discipline over the years. Or has no-one in the Libdems ever been successfully disciplined because the burden of proof is too high?
Ukip becoming a byword for white male intolerance - takes the heat off the Tories.
I don't have a firm view about the Rennard allegations. However, if *any individual accused* is found not guilty OTBOP, it would make it far easier to dismiss the complainants' concerns that the hadn't received justice. On the other hand, were the person found quilty, job done. If a case lands in the limbo zone of 50-95% probability, it places everyone in difficulty and my guess is that the only reason this hasn't been an issue before is that the press and public weren't that bothered about any of the cases.
I don't want to sound churlish but who are you exactly to suggest what the rules of the LibDems should be?
These rules have not been imposed by some nameless body, but rather crafted by the members themselves to run their party in the way they see fit.
But when the procedures don't deliver the outcome one faction desires they run around squawking.
Secondly, it appears you are confused, and in fact Webster found OTBOP for Rennard.
Guidance and flowchart "The Role of Investigator", point 6
"a useful question to ask yourself is whether there is a realistic prospect (i.e. a 51% chance) that any of those grounds are made out.... If not, you should recommend they take no further action."
http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/docs/DisciplinaryProcedureGuide.pdf
Fortunately less than 472 days left until it can be ceremoniously dumped from office.
http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2014/january/dramatic-fall-in-non-eu-students-at-uk-universities-appears-to-justify-immigration-policy-fears-says-expert/
"As well as the 25% fall in the number of Indian students enrolling in UK universities over the past year, HESA's figures showed a 32% drop in numbers between 2010/11 and 2011/12. This means that the number of new Indian students has almost halved in the past two years, falling from 23,985 in 2010/11 to 12,280 in 2012/13."
Are parties not really clubs in nature? Can members not choose to expel someone? Surely an individual has no right to be a member of a body that no-one else wants them to be in. If the LDs abhor Rennard despite being unable to prove his guilt beyond reasonable doubt can they not just vote him out of the party?
Can you run through the inept, vindictive and appalling policies that they have introduced and what Labour's plans are to rectify them
What do you think of Hollande's government in France?
Like osmosis, Farage will be damaged
I'm so relieved that it is such a rare defect among our political leaders and it is so reassuring that the British public can see through such pandering, leading to Cameron's terrible favourability ratings... Oh. Dear.
Sky News learns that the International Monetary Fund is set to upgrade the UK's growth forecast more than any other major economy
Poor old labour....
Maybe the economy has reached the stage where there are fewer rural migrants left who are looking for jobs, and a lower growth rate is enough, but I don't know enough to make that sort of judgement.
'I actually agree with the EDL on what they protest about'
http://order-order.com/2014/01/20/rachel-reeves-labours-new-benefits-literacy-and-maths-test/
Most sensible, bona fide organizations recognize the necessity to act in good faith and according to the principles of natural justice [the courts as a matter of public policy may impose such constraints on them, if not].
Consequently, the rules usually provide for a domestic tribunal to hear complaints and act in a quasi-judicial capacity, leading possibly to any sanction as may be provided in the rules.
The standards of behaviour in clubs are a matter for the members themselves, and the courts are loathe to become involved. However, they WILL get involved on any of the following grounds.
i) the club's rules have not been followed.
ii) whether or not explicitly included in the rules, the principles of natural justice have not been followed.
iii) there is evidence of mala fides
By the way, on the subject of "and the first shall be last", Italian industrial orders (a very good leading indicator) are out, and they're showing a sharp improvement - up 2.3% year-over-year, and about 1% ahead of expectations. While it's not exactly a UK-like number, it does suggest that the Italian economy is (very slowly) following the Irish and Spanish out of slump.
The Mail are a bit bipolar on kippers from my experience, though they have published this story today about Farage suspending the recent Conservative defector, who had been saying the same kind of thing for years whilst with the Tories without censure
"However, Mr Farage today suggested that the remarks had only become a story after Mr Silvester joined Ukip from the Tory party, where he had previously aired similar views.
Speaking in a question-and-answer session in the City, the Ukip leader said: 'I think it is very interesting that, when Mr Silvester was saying these things in 2012 and 2013 as a Conservative town councillor in Henley, it was not a news story. But suddenly he switches to Ukip and continues the same thing and gets on the national news.
'I think that shows you and tells you all you need to know. The establishment, the status quo, the big businesses, the big Eurocrats and our three so-called main political parties are scared witless by what Ukip is doing because we are striking a chord not just for ordinary people but for many elements in the business community as well."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542179/UKIP-councillor-says-God-sent-storms-battered-Britain-David-Cameron-allowed-gay-marriage-legalised.html
Green madness: destroying a wilderness to provide green power:
http://alansloman.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/the-monadhliath-mountains-ring-of-steel.html