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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Rennard case leads to any further seepage of support from the Lib Dems then LAB looks set to be the winner
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•Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [43%]
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Saw your comment about language issues earlier you may find the link useful if you are not already aware of them.
http://www.pocketcomms.co.uk/
Most bank lending to SMEs is in the form of 'core funding', i.e. overdrafts, bank loans and credit cards. These can be provided as extensions to core consumer products, using centralised 'behavioural credit scoring' systems to manage risk and consumer account processing to deliver product.
And I am not convinced by Robert's suggestion that such lending carries much higher risks or has greater levels of default than household lending.
The fall in lending to SMEs since the recession has resulted as much from the uncertain economic outlook and suppressed demand than it has from the banking sector limiting supply.
Recent statistics from the BoE (its Credit Conditions and Bank Liabilities reports) suggest that all of economic optimism, credit availability and SME loan applications are on the increase, with funding spreads, arrangement fees and defaults falling.
An upturn in lending to small businesses will be determined far more by the cyclical nature of economic recovery than any impact banking sector structure may (or may not) have on competition.
Certainly high interest rates are appropriate for high risk short term loans, and the rise of Wonga and similar shows that there is little bar to entry of new products and services, except Mr Milliband himself!
Rather than deride Wonga, he should encourage their model with lower rates and slightly longer terms.
I don't understand what all the fuss is about.
The inquiry found him not liable to a criminal standard of proof. But the granting or withholding of the whip is an entirely political decision. It may be unjust, but Clegg can withhold the whip without cause if he wants to.
Not trolling at all.
It's a genuine question you don't seem able to answer: if you don't really care about the issue, then why are you against it? If you have no religious issue with it (presumably, because if you did you'd probably be firmly for or against) then what is your reasoning?
Or is it your position to restrict rights from people for no reason?
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When the bill was going through parliament I commented a lot about it, and why I was against it. But saying things on internet sites makes it seem like the opinion you hold is stronger than it actually is, especially when the issue is not on topic, and I don't really want the gay people on here to think I am some kind of homophobic nutter who dislikes them, so don't really want to get into a big to do about something that doesn't really matter to me.
You yourself were calling people that weren't in favour "loonys" the other day and making other disparaging comments, now you want to have an argument about why I dont share your opinion... why should I want to get involved?
I do care strongly about immigration and its effects, and betting, and on those topics Im happy to argue all day long, as I have demonstrated many times
No one can deny that they are equal of any party on sleaze now. This seems to stick more to them yhough than other parties. Perhaps it is the novelty. UKIP has had an astonishing list of scandals, yet is teflon coated. They have the advantage though of not being in power, and no real promise of govt either. Scandals in opposition do not amount to much.
France: Sex but no scandal
And New Hampshire is one of the states that Republicans should really be competitive in if they're going to win a presidential election. In reality, the state is becoming more in line with the rest of New England, which is now very blue. By my calculations, if you give the Democrats all the states they have won in the last six elections, you get 248 electoral votes. Add in New Hampshire and New Mexico into that, you get to 257. You're left with the Republicans entirely dependent on blue-collar Ohio. Is the GOP going to be do that in its current incarnation?
Perhaps people who are against gay marriage without a good reason (*) are, well, a bit loony. The world's moved on. Gay couples have got married and the world hasn't ended. And the world is a little better for having a little more happiness. (**)
What's the harm in supporting it now? After all, your position seems to be one of preventing a subsection of society from having the same rights as the rest of us.
(*) And good reasons seem hard to come by. Religion is one, and even that is arguable.
(**) There is the counter-argument: why do we wish to inflict the horrors of marriage onto another section of society? ;-)
Also, RIP Chris Chattaway, a sad week in that we have lost 2 talented, decent men with Rodger Lloyd-Pack also passing away!
I think a rather more detailed response is called for, Mr. Smithson.
What is it about the Brown banking settlement that inspires you so much ? Ed Lympe Pole.
I am not claiming that the current UK banking sector is ideally structured to encourage competition nor that the political and the regulatory authorities should disregard further sectoral reform.
What I am saying is that business finance cost and availability is determined by a much broader range of factors than banking sector structure and that structural reform is low down of priority problems to solve and is relatively low in weight as an influence on the competitiveness of the business finance market.
Singling out industry structure as the sole or major problem and suggesting that its reform will lead to higher levels of customer service, lower costs and increased competition is simply the dumbing down of a complex problem for the purposes of gaining electoral traction. Bluntly, it is a sellable deception.
so how long until George gets going ?
The consequences of a demographic event takes years to work through, so don't take succour from the World not ending just yet.
BTW, stop calling those who oppose same sex marriage mentally ill. Or do you want us to respond in kind to homosexuals?
Let's keep it civil and treat each other with mutual respect.
Because of his life peerage he has the right to sit on the legislative process, ruling us until he dies, and is also a powerful argument for the abolition of the House of Lords.
But from your personal business point of view, this year will be as good it gets to be a West Midlands metal basher in search of bank finance. OK the economy will continue to improve and confidence rise further leading to greater credit availability, but relative to other sectors of the economy and in terms of loan costs, I would be surprised if you will be able to better 2014.
The Treasury and Bank of England will be pushing the notes into the pockets of your blue boiler suit. Osborne will probably even visit you to do the stuffing in front of cameras.
"If you commit an offence, we will investigate it and you will be prosecuted."
Except of course if you have your car broken into, or house burgled when they will do the most perfunctory of investigations possible.
t must be true if it was on a pub blackboard!
The fact that you keep using extremes such as "loony" and talking about the world not ending is another reason why I cant be bothered to have the argument, as it seems that anyone that isn't pro your side of the debate is an extremist.
I forgot that infertile heterosexual couples cannot get married for that reason, for instance women past the menopause.
Oh, hang on.
The fact is GO should have tackled bank reform in 2011 and if he had done so we'd have a few billion more on our GDP. Indeed I think we have already bettered 2014 in 2007 as our GDP still hasn't recovered to pre recession levels. As for singling out reform as the only thing that will drive improvements I fear Mr Pole you are doing me an injustice. My argument is as I stated yesterday that restructuring per se isn't a panacea for recovery, but it will be a strong contributory factor, one which tragically HMG has chosen to ignore.
Perhaps you should, as well.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/18/bbc-whistleblowers-newsnight-savile-scandal
With homosexual couples, there is no chance of children of the marriage.
If you wish to stop non-fertile couples from marrying, I would agree with your proposal.
There is a difference between balance of probabilities and the standard required for criminal proof. Rennard was judged to have exceeded one, but not the other. An apology is called for, and - potentially - a political punishment. A criminal punishment is not warranted.
That's not whistleblowing, that'd be madness.
https://m.soundcloud.com/nicholas-pegg/ukip-shipping-forecast
Really? I'd be interested to know how a woman in her eighties, who has been legally able to marry for centuries, has a theoretical chance of children.
Go on, educate us.
Rennard was not properly 'judged' to have done anything.
Webster was not a competent tribunal, the demand for an apology was probably ultra vires, and clearly the principles of natural justice were ignored.
A few thoughts, if the gays are responsible for the weather.
1) The weather would be more fabulous
2) There'd be more rainbows
3) It's raining men wouldn't just be a song, but an actual occurrence
4) All those anti-gay, drought ridden African countries must be feeling a bit narked the way they treat the gays.
@jameschappers: Chris Davies on @bbcwestminhour: 'This is touching someone’s leg through clothing..equivalent of an Italian man pinching a woman’s bottom'
more maramlade for the day after tomorrow.
The fact is GO should have tackled bank reform in 2011 and if he had done so we'd have a few billion more on our GDP. Indeed I think we have already bettered 2014 in 2007 as our GDP still hasn't recovered to pre recession levels. As for singling out reform as the only thing that will drive improvements I fear Mr Pole you are doing me an injustice. My argument is as I stated yesterday that restructuring per se isn't a panacea for recovery, but it will be a strong contributory factor, one which tragically HMG has chosen to ignore.
But George did get going the moment he set foot in No 11.
Here is an extract from his Mansion House Speech made on 16 June 2010:
the new Government is establishing an independent commission on the banking industry. It will look at the structure of banking in the UK, the state of competition in the industry and how customers and taxpayers can be sure of the best deal. The Commission will come to a view. And the Government will decide on the right course of action. Sir John Vickers has agreed to chair the Commission.
The Vickers Commission published a summary of issues paper in September 2010 which highlighted the following scope of the commission's work:
• Financial stability
• Competition
• Interaction of financial stability and competition
• Lending and the pace of economic recovery
• Competitiveness of UK financial services and the wider economy
• Risks to the Government’s fiscal position
The main priority for Vickers was to make recommendations on how the taxpayer and retail depositors could avoid loss in the event of future bank failures. He did however also consider and recommend measures to regulate and enhance competitiveness.
Vickers published an interim report in April 2011 and a final report in September 2011. His main recommendation was to establish a ring-fencing structure rather to split up the large UK banks.
[to be continued]
[Osborne and Banks, continued ..]
Vickers's recommendations were broadly accepted by Osborne, even though they were very contentious within the industry; anticipated rather than followed work being done in the US and the EU; were complex and far-ranging requiring substantial changes to existing structure; and, were dealing with a banking sector whose combined assets were over three times the size of the UK's Gross National Product!
Osborne announced to the HoC on 19 December 2011 that the government accepted:
• The principle of ring fencing. It was undecided over whether there should be a de-minimis exemption for small banks;
• Large retail banks will have to hold equity capital of 10% and a loss absorbing capacity of 17% for large banks. There could be adjustments of this figure for banks with a large overseas operation which could be shown to pose no threat to UK stability if it failed.
• The principle of depositor preference
• Improved competition – easier switching of bank accounts, to be done within seven days by September 2013. The government did not accept the recommendation that the divestment of Lloyd’s branches should go beyond that required under EU rules.
He announced that the Financial Services Bill in passage at the time would be amended to adopt the recommendations, and he stated that:
“I can confirm that primary and secondary legislation relating to the ring fence will be completed by the end of this Parliament in May 2015, and that banks will be expected to comply as soon as practically possible thereafter. The Government will work with the banks to develop a reasonable transition timetable.”
Come on, Mr. Brooke, you can hardly have expected any Chancellor to have moved this far and fast in so short a time!
And I have left out a whole number of further measures which have followed on from Vickers and the 2012 Act.
(* admittedly he was at some point along the transgender path, rather than originally born a man)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1582908/Pregnant-man-stuns-medical-profession.html
I have personal experience of how these things can spin catastrophically out of control.
People in clubs and associations seem to lose their heads completely when there is a scent of blood, and when the target refuses to be bullied into submission.
The LibDems need to get a grip, fast, and start taking competent legal advice, which it appears - from their disarray - they have not yet done...
I bet when Lord Rennard visits his mother, she had to go on wikipedia to find out who he is.
Yup, here's the story.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/showbiz/chinese-love-curly-fu-thats-6527306
Is a bit like in the 60s and 70s James Bond was known in Japan as Mr Kiss Kiss Bang Bang
Perfectly safe to comment about him.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542003/Calls-Queen-strip-sleazy-Lib-Dem-Lord-Rennard-peerage-sexual-harassment-claims.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
As I said, spinning catastrophically out of control...
"Clubs are the most anomalous group of human beings known to law.", Feeney v MacManus [1937]
I reckon he could lose his whip.
Jimmy Savile is dead, if you haven't noticed.
Perfectly safe to comment about him.
Jimmy is dead? Say it ain't so!
As I said, it ain't whistleblowing, it's just an opportunity to get in trouble. I hope if Mike had anything to say about Savile or the BBCs involvement, he'd go to the relevant authorities, rather than post about it on here.
Hows is your accent these days , Mr Eagles? A cross between Yorkshire and Mordor I suspect and so unintelligible to any civilised person.
I guess what drives my view, not everyone is interested in politics and follows the minutiae of stories like us.
As the Virgin Mary was cited further down this thread, I would put point out her cousin Elisabeth conceived at an advanced age (John the Baptist), but she, of course, had been married much earlier.
A little bit strange to see scripture quoted on this thread after the piss being taken out of that Baptist Ukipper.
My accent is getting worse, it is all about the cadence.
It is not helped by the fact I spend the day in Manchester, and the evenings in South Yorkshire.
As I said, it ain't whistleblowing, it's just an opportunity to get in trouble. I hope if Mike had anything to say about Savile or the BBCs involvement, he'd go to the relevant authorities, rather than post about it on here.
If Mike Smithson has gone to the authorities about Jimmy Savile, then that is indeed praiseworthy. Please give us the details of how the police failed to put a stop to this monster so we can punish the force involved.
(but seriously, Coventry is a little to the east of *real* Brummie territory).
Anyway, thanks for that news about young Sunil, most heartening. I expect his mum is pleased.
Belike and all that!
Clegg needs to take ownership of this issue. This is the perfect opportunity for him to start slapping people down. I don't think that this will move the polls but I do think that it will lose the Lib Dems members unless Clegg and the leadership are seen to be actively engaged in stamping out acceptance of this sort of behaviour.
http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/52740
Oh, hang on...
You can always rely on Chris Davies to take a delicate issue requiring political leadership and instead apply the sledgehammer of stupidity.
Well of course I can Mr P, that;s why I post what I post and have stopped voting blue. If GO had time to dick about with stupid budgets, nonsense dividing lines, internal bickering and other such stupidities then he had times to tackle reform but has just chosen not to. Frankly nobody will be in a much better position than GO for reform for quite some time but he has ignored his big chance to play politics.
But he has.
Here's a fairly good summation of why the Rennard faction and the Cleggites are at each others throats. Doesn't matter if this does or does not get a huge amount more traction in the media.
This is already doing severe damage inside the lib dems and it's going to cost Clegg dearly.