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Will Johnson remain an MP after September 6th? – politicalbetting.com
Will Johnson remain an MP after September 6th? – politicalbetting.com
One of the big Boris Johnson issues on which punters have a mixed view is whether he’ll remain as an MP until at least the next General Election.
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There is no obligation to do anything as MP, so it’s free money essentially.
Indeed if Truss wins I would say Sunak is more likely to leave the Commons for the private sector than Boris is to depart
https://twitter.com/neildotobrien/status/1559058038736277506?s=21&t=OEra92fTH5N3oYqK1xwnMg
I don’t know how this squares with the labour shortages. You could argue we now have the “worst of both worlds”.
Again, there is no obligation to do anything as MP, you don’t really even need to turn up.
Boris will do the bare minimum, thereby having his cake and eating it.
And although I disagree with that particular premise, i believe it’s an interesting thread.
The worst that happens is that he has to declare his earnings, and it's possible that he will quite enjoy that.
To a large degree, it comes down to Truss's attitude. She could throw him to the wolves if she were so minded. In a lot of ways, it would make her life easier. But she has surrounded herself by the Justice4Boris crew.
1.09 Liz Truss 92%
11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%
Next Conservative leader
1.09 Liz Truss 92%
11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%
I consider the loosening of non-EU migration rules as a positive side-effect of controlling EU migration. To have the whole world migrating on a looser but level playing field is better than uncontrolled on one side and draconianly restricted on the other.
The transparency obligations on an MP are an issue; the risks of an unfavourable Privileges Committee finding are real (hence attempts by Team Johnson to discredit members); and the income is trivial compared with that on offer on speaker circuit.
In terms of causing a difficult by-election for his successor, Johnson doesn't care about other people, so that's not a factor.
On the possibility of a comeback, he's returned to the Commons before and may do again. The particular seat he is in is less than ideal, and he could find another with minimum effort should he wish to do so.
Figure 1. Expected inflation by income quintile in October 2022
Figure 2. Changes in real take-home income, this year (2022/23) compared to last
I hope we'll be equally critical of Johnson doing the same.
It should probably be a requirement that an MP actually attends a minimum number of surgeries a year, only exempted if they are of sufficient stature that there would be a security risk if they did so (so, Cabinet level or LotO - and even then, it should be expected a member of their office would conduct the surgeries instead and convey their constituents issues to the MP). Should they fail to do so then its considered they've called a by-election similar to a recall petition.
I don't know where that would leave the Speaker, and Sinn Fein MPs. Maybe it would force people to sort out the Speaker problem (I know we've suggested here the Speaker is the MPs MP and a by-election in the Speakers seat) and as for Sinn Fein, maybe they'll be forced to fight a by-election annually.
There is a massive amount of immigration from the Philippines into nursing for example (and thank god), but it might be argued that this is 'unproductive' immigration, whereas young creative French and Italians were more likely to generate economic growth.
The voters of Uxbridge might put a little more thought into their vote next time.
I don't think he'd fancy the possibility of losing, and wouldn't care about the hospital pass to the whomever might be his replacement.
But the astonishing thing to me is that the UK now has *more* immigration, and labour shortages to boot. I have no idea how to explain that.
Someone notes in the thread that family reunions are up a lot.
Drifting off topic (or maybe not - I'm discussing MPs who don't bother turning up - Johnson is in the header after all!), but how does this work? I know Sinn Fein advertise themselves as 'elect us and we WON'T attend Parliament' so the electorate can't say they don't know what they're getting but do they hold surgeries, and if they do, how do they convey their concerns to the UK Parliament?
And what would happen if there was a local political crisis that required an MP [1]. Would they still continue to ignore Parliament and say nothing?
[1] I realise a 'local' political crisis in those seats is only likely to be about one thing, and decisions are likely to be taken elsewere therefore (London, Dublin.... Washington!) but still......
This winter will be brutal; what happens next year is not yet decided.
https://twitter.com/gordonhudsonnu/status/1559136861616046080?s=20&t=_Y4lIvDowIRhR6LDX_hj1Q
This *feels* quite convincing. But then the "rock in a loch" hypothesis felt equally convincing
So I wonder if there is - as I suggested before - a human urge to believe the least weird explanation for something weird, to the extent that you will mentally overrule what your eyes are seeing
What the photo shows is a whacking big weird thing hanging in the sky. What my brains tells me I am seeing is just a rock in a puddle! No, it's just a mountain!
Never "it's a really big weird thing hanging in the sky"
Energy (Particularly gas) needs to be seen as a strategic national resource now by nation states now, rather than a global commodity.
The decommissioning for gas in the North sea needs to have been stopped yesterday, and we need to remain good friends with the arabs no matter what tbh.
https://twitter.com/ETC_energy/status/1559110148089683969
How much European gas is supplied by Russia and where is it used?
Russia provides ~40% of Europe's gas consumption – generating electricity, providing heat in homes and industry and used as a feedstock.
Our third Explainer sets out options to replace Russian gas within a year
Stays on as MP and even hints at wanting the job back - 6 shortening to 3 a couple of months later
Resigns seat - drifting back and forth between 10 and 25
On EU nurses, this always seems to get forgotten in amongst all the Brexit talk:
https://www.nursingtimes.net/roles/nurse-managers/new-english-language-test-agreed-for-european-nurses-08-10-2015/
What do you think is in that photo? I genuinely have no idea, and am open to any explanation
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/world-s-worst-dropout-rate-adds-to-headaches-for-uk-workforce
FLYING OVERHEAD!
oh no it's a plane
EU nationals overall were a positive for the treasury , they were more likely to be younger and fitter and in well paid jobs .
Non EU nationals were a negative for the treasury especially as family reunion was a larger part of those coming and they brought older family members who took up more resources.
All the UK has done is replace EU nationals with non EU ones from countries which didn’t reciprocate any freedom of movement rights so in effect UK citizens lost their chance to live in 27 other countries and ended up with more immigration .
Talk about shooting yourself in the foot . It’s noticeable now how quiet the right wing press are about current levels of immigration , seeing as they went full on with the anti EU hate , clearly highlighting how they duped their readers is something they want to avoid !
I'm not really interested.
Show me several dozen recent ones and I might be.
Does it need a Commons vote to recall him ?
However I can hardly force you to reply, so fair dos
We need to bring back the Vagrancy Laws.
Populist Toryism does not seek to resolve problems. It seeks primarily to exploit them to whip up the division it judges to be its best bet for winning elections.
That's my take on this interesting question you've posed.
For a start they usually have a clear sky above, and although you can occasionally see layers during fronts these are normally very local and you can't see distant objects.
What definition there is in the sky in the photograph is also visible both above and below the 'object'. Layered cloud of any kind would be visible as a line across the image.
The rest of the 1100TWh is labelled 'tricky tradeoffs'.
Nothing about this is simple, but some mitigation is certainly possible within the next twelve months.
So essentially; it’s the over 50s dropping out because of “long term sickness”, along with some anecdotal suggestions that the dropout skews female with mental health issues.
Oliver Blanchard, quoted in the piece, suggests that Covid demonstrated that for some it was quite nice to stay at home and a decent chunk of older people do not need to work (at least for financial reasons).
The cost of living may change minds, but I suspect certain carrots may be required, though don’t push me on what. Jobs need to provide something more than just money.
https://twitter.com/BAESystemsAir/status/1559179302918361090
Today, we’ve handed over the first of 24 @eurofighter Typhoons to the Qatar Emiri Air Force at a ceremony in Warton, Lancashire.
This jet will provide critical air support during @FIFAWorldCup this year.
In all seriousness, you don't have any interest at all? To me it would be one of the most interesting revelations in the history of humankind. Perhaps THE most interesting
The King over the Water routine only works if are not actually there...
His triumphant return will therefore include a spectacular constituency win as a precursor.
Sure if I could have a friendly conversation with ET where he/she/it/they tells me all about life on planet zog and space travel, great, I would be up for that, but doubt that is on offer.
I tend to agree. The shape being so similar to a mountaintop is probably coincidence. Nothing else supports this thesis. How could it happen, photographically? Psychologically? How come the plane is in the photo but no other landscape features? Nor does this hypothesis remotely square with the eye-witness accounts (which might all be lies, of course)
I'm down to three explanations
1. A long elaborate hoax
2. Surprising human tech
3. Aliens!???!
Each individual can be net positive or net negative for the Treasury, to lump together all of a nationality together and claim what's true for some is true for all is what could be termed 'racism'.
Some EU nationals were a net positive being young and fit and in well paid jobs.
Some EU nationals were a net negative being unskilled who came to work in minimum wage jobs as it was better than their minimum wage.
Some non-EU nationals were net negative engaging in family reunion etc
Some non-EU nationals were net positive being young and fit and skilled etc
What's changed post-Brexit is we've tightened up rules on unskilled Europeans coming her to work minimum wage jobs (so skilled Europeans can still get a visa) while loosening restrictions on skilled non-Europeans who were struggling to get a visa in the past.
If that means more skilled non-Europeans compensating for fewer less skilled EU nationals then that is a net improvement and will see the net compensation to the Treasury for both groups improving potentially as the skilled Europeans are no longer deflated by their unskilled counterparts, while skilled non-Europeans have an easier route in which they were blocked from in the past.
Win/win, best of both worlds. Unless you're a racist who wants to keep out non-Europeans.
The oft repeated claim on PB is that immigration discourages capital investment, and therefore depresses productivity growth.
Now, that may or may not be true, but that chart basically tells you that in 2008/9, GDP per Capita growth basically shifted down a gear.
Here's the thing: that's true in pretty much every developed country, irrespective of whether they are high immigration, low immigration, or net emigration.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3950282/#Comment_3950282
"...most economists (but not all) believe that immigration increases wages over time, by increasing firm productivity."
Personally I'm beyond worrying about how I'm going to pay the gas bill, and more thinking through what I would do in the event of either the electric or gas grids collapsing this winter during a cold snap. I'm very fortunate, I own a company permanently sat on what in domestic terms is a huge amount of energy (I've stockpiles of Diesel, LPG and Coal), some of which I can borrow, so I won't freeze to death - however if the electric grid goes down the lack of clean water and sewerage will get unfunny quite quickly.
It doesn't look as though Beto O'Rourke will be the next Texas Governor.
Anyway, here's a cropped picture of Schiehallion (being a suitable hill for an EXPERIMENT) in a cloud inversion. I took this in January, not August, but you get the idea. The location is only a few miles from Calvine (in the Drumochter hills).
Even with a serious overexposure I think you'd struggle to get something similar to the mystery image.
I still think it is a reflection but am prepared to be convinced.
I totally understand the obsession with ALIENS. Are we alone? It is a fundamental question which will shape how we see the universe if it can ever answered in the negative.
I doubt we'll discover them in this way, though.
Vulcam to Earth.
Personally, I think that in most occasions, immigration is a symptom of deeper problems. And one is best off seeking to solve the underlying issues, rather than attempting to band aid the problem at the symptom level.
If your country doesn't produce enough trained plumbers or electricians, and is importing 24 year olds with those skills, well maybe you have a problem with education and training. Likewise, if you have a problem with low labourforce participation rates for certain segments of the population, you might want to ask why that is.
You could argue that current capital investment in digital et al. is replacing skilled employees, rather than low skilled; so a surplus of high skilled employees could reduce capital investment?
Given the nature of our economy, services vs manufacturing, capital investment is more around digital assets today rather than heavy plant.
U.K. small building sites are visibly less automated than their French equivalents, for example.
A handful of months on the back benches and a VONC on the hapless Truss, and Johnson returns, stronger faster, fitter. All his misbehaviour will have been purged and BigDog is saved again.
https://wol.iza.org/articles/skill-based-immigration-economic-integration-and-economic-performance/long
Key findings
Pros
Skill-based selection of immigrants responds to the needs of the economy.
High-skilled immigrants have better labor market prospects in general than immigrants admitted based on kinship ties or for humanitarian reasons.
High-skilled immigrants boost innovation, a key to long-term economic growth.
High-skilled immigrants in the labor market can raise wages for low-skilled native workers struggling with declining labor market prospects.
Highly paid skill-based immigrants widen the tax base and help offset growing fiscal challenges.
Cons
The design of selection systems for skill-based admissions is complicated and requires frequent updating as the economic environment changes.
Skill-based immigrants face formidable economic integration challenges due to skill and credential transferability problems and underutilization of their human capital.
Identifying short-term skill shortages as a basis for admissions is difficult and may not be in line with long-term needs of the economy.
Allocating a higher share of immigrant admissions based on skills usually comes at the expense of kinship- and humanitarian-based admissions.
What it is, it's the USAF Aurora project.
Those who voted for that, like me, have got exactly what we voted for.
Those who are now saying "Brexit means more non-Europeans and that's bad" are being racist.
Is there an obvious reason why no one's prepared to discuss the elephant in the room? The next Prime Minister and the Leader of the opposition share one thing in common.
Both were staunch Remainers.
Even a pro hanging blue passport loving Daily Express reader from Hartlepool who is over 70 and left school at 16 would by now have joined the dots.....
I can understand- just-why Truss might be squirming in embarrassment at the choices she subsequently made but not Starmer. His hands were clean. As large swathes of the country slip into penury why is he keeping up his omerta?
What's going on and where is this fabled brain of his?