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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you thought the party you’d like to vote could win in your seat then what would your choice be?
Interesting cross-breaks to YouGov question on who you’d vote for if CON/LAB/LD/UKIPhad chance in your seat twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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117
Probably much too optimistic, but who knows?
http://is.gd/TLZveq
They're up in UKIP territory.
<50 7/4
50-100 13/8
>100 7/4
Those RandT boffins should stand ready for egg!
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/politicsdetail?event=217018671
Lord Ashcroft has precisely crafted the mission statement of UKIP:
To cultivate disaffection, disillusionment, anxiety, distrust and grumpiness – and no longer for a cause, but as an end in itself.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10023002/Home-Office-fury-as-drug-dealer-immigrant-wins-right-to-stay-in-UK.html
Is this really what the Second World War was fought for? Ignoring the fact that they're unmarried and don't have children, thus not yet a family, why can't they maintain their right to a family life somewhere else? Furthermore, the right to a family life is clearly not as important a right as the right to liberty, yet we are allowed to strip the right to liberty from criminals. Why can't we strip other rights in the sentences?
LOL
"Roger, Have you ever met the person you are slagging off? I think your comment says more about you and your personal prejudices than anything about the object of your rather nasty comment."
I actually stole the sentiment from Peter Oborne someone I normally find unreadable but his description of Cameron and his henchmen as "an incestuous collection of louche, affluent, power-hungry and amoral Londoners" shows how wrong I was
PS. What was your most recent username before "Square Root"?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/24/continental-euroscepticism-rise
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/what-next-for-the-anti-euro-parties/
A draft text meant to feed into a French Socialist convention on Europe in June says the EU is being murdered by an alliance of the British Prime Minister and the "selfish intransigence" of Germany's Chancellor Merkel, reports Le Monde. The draft says France is the only "real" European government.
Zut alors!
As Farage is worrying the sheep with threats of the Roma and Bulgars, Dave and Angela are getting down to the real business of ridding the EU of its socialist straightjacket.
"Clegg agrees with IDS,wealthy pensioners should give up benefits"
It's surely only a short leap to suggest that all wealthy pensioners should give the government all their excess wealth. Not a bad idea but isn't it a bit communist for a Tory government? Has Cameron commented yet?
"The douche to the louche"
I like it! I think it'll fly!
He then went forth and multiplied.
Any guesses on which area he will be advocating the state takes over ?
Exercise ? Diet ? Breathing ?
'This is ridiculous. A foreign drug dealer can't be deported because he's got a girlfriend here:'
Just the tip of the iceberg,there's a plentiful supply of idiot judges always prepared to find an excuse for a criminal to stay in the UK and always ready to move the ever flexible human rights goalposts to accommodate.
I am not quite a state pensioner yet but I do get my bus pass and WFB
You can keep my bus pass,only used once for the novelty,but I enjoy my winter fuel allowance,it is for fuel,so I use it to fill up the Gas Guzzler and live up to my description as an evil greedy baby boomer.
I find my pass very useful, and use it several times a week.
'Twitter awash with a big red policy announcement tomorrow...'
Ed's going to share with us the most effective IHT avoidance Trusts?
The Tory party seems to be realising this. As Crosby would say. What's the point of him?
So we can now add plagiarism to the list.
"Help, its the wrong brother and he's gone wrong."
Why are you and tim so afraid of Shapps?
If he were truly useless and dangerous to the Tories wouldn't it be better tactics to remain schtum?
IOS can sometimes be a bit indiscreet, it was he who first revealed Labour's novel tactic of targeting Cornwall.
Or is this more evidence in support of Ken Clarke's comments?
And only 91% of tories would vote in a seat that they had a chance of winning. There is something rotten in the state of Yougov.
How to survive on £21k a day.
'£21K-a-day David Miliband exploits tax loophole that his ... - Daily Mail
www.dailymail.co.uk/.../21K-day-David-Miliband-exploits-tax-loophole-G...
Jan 28, 2012 – He said: 'Usually when spouses own shares it is to help avoid tax. Ed Miliband and Labour talk tough on tax-avoidance except when it's in the ...
It's a good policy, in many ways, but an even better way of losing elections.
What anyone posts on here doesn't matter. I am not going to pretend that anything written on here will lead to someone doing anything different. We are all howling at the moon. So I might as well say what I think.
Shapps really is useless. Cameron would do well to get rid of him.
Oh dear the french are getting very upset with Frau Merkel. Now we're in for a year of stamping their little feet to see if the Germans will give in.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2013/04/28/01003-20130428ARTFIG00073-les-relations-entre-la-france-et-l-allemagne-au-plus-mal.php
I used to love the Laughing Gravy back in the day, you've inspired me to go back soon to see what it's like now.
The 1% who swtich from Lab-LD to SNP-Plain probably didn't understand the question....or have some bizarre thinking I have not understood yet.
The 6% who switch to "wouldn't vote"....are they already afraid of the amount of leaflets on doorstep in a 4 way marginal?
Anything to shut up Len McCluskey.
I used to like it in the early 2000s too when it was rougher.. one of the first places to have board games to play while you waited for your tucker!
Then on to the Stage Door for a lock in!
One of the joys of retirement is that there is NI on your pension.
The Ukip plan would cut down pensioners incomes by quite a lot.
http://www.rbkc.gov.uk/subsites/exhibitionroad.aspx
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2291695/This-place-just-like-toilet-Entrepreneur-converts-mens-public-lavatory-cafe.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/broadcastinghouse/
I always have faith in Germany playing a winning hand in such spats thesedays though.
So far I can only be sure that Ed M's lot can't organise a p1ss up in a brewery.
' Change the law if you like, but it is disingenuous to attack judges for doing the job that Parliament requires of them.'
That's exactly what happened,but the Judge chose to ignore the new guidelines,clearly he didn't agree with them.
'In his decision to let Ali stay, the immigration judge said he was not taking into account new guidelines introduced by the Home Secretary last week, in an attempt to stop spurious human rights cases being brought by criminals to prevent their deportation.'
When you had your chat with Shapps what did you think? It seems he has been spending all CCHQ's time by getting them to read twitter and facebook. Only for it to rebound on them!
The Human Rights Act 1998 is primary legislation. As the decision of the House of Lords in Adelola makes clear, the Immigration Rules are not even a statutory instrument. Are you honestly suggesting that the judge should have given effect to an executive decree over the will of Parliament? That would be contrary to the constitutional settlement extant in this jurisdiction since the so-called Glorious Revolution.
It is good copy for "list of" articles due to the novelty of its business model. You bring your own alcohol and then it is mixed into cocktails by the bar staff. Small and almost impossible to get in without booking, it is still on the crest of the trend wave.
Problem is that it has already been well covered by the press but its story should still survive more publication.
Also is he a person we have any chance of winning over. Most comms is DM rather than leaflet. Most likely simply be cut out.
But it is odd that they make no effort to let voters weigh up their candidates in a local election.
Are from Bristol, Sormerset. something like that?
(ok, I am not good in remembering where people comes from! Yesterday I placed one in Aberdeen instead of South Ayrshire).
'Keep calm, everyone – now is not the time to do a Nicolas Cage'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10024202/Keep-calm-everyone-now-is-notthe-time-to-do-a-Nicolas-Cage.html
The Tories have given many different answers to the same question. How do we deal with UKIP?
Oblivion was a true surprise - stunningly shot, some effective twists and emotional moments of stillness, decent enough action. The plot was, weirdly, both a little simple and sparse on detail at times and oddly convuleted in some ways, if that makes any sense. I am intensely annoyed (ok, jealous) that Tom Cruise is 50 and still looks 35 (that is, Movie star 35, so better than most people at 25). Also, Jaime Lannister is in it a little.
Iron Man 3 was not at all what I had expected, but it was still at turns funny and emotional. It does contain a twist some people might think is too much, and it is not as emotional as it thinks it is - but which critics laps up of course - so it's a mixed back. Worth the price of admission, better than Iron Man 2, but not as well constructed as the original Iron Man, and tries too hard at times to be deep. Avengers was dumb fun, but IM3 wants to be impactful, and misses more than it would like.
I like Nikolaj Coster-Waldau. He's one of the better chaps for Game of Thrones DVD commentaries, and his English accent, particularly in season 2, is very good indeed.
Interesting, and glad to hear Iron Man seems to be improving.
Basically help is hard to come by so all parties have to target. We've delivered everywhere in Broxtowe, but we certainly haven't canvassed it all this year.
The new OneAldwych hotel has opened recently:
http://www.onealdwych.com/home2.aspx?utm_expid=43244275-1&utm_referrer=http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en-GB&source=hp&q=new+hotel+aldwych&gbv=2&oq=new+hotel+aldwych&gs_l=heirloom-hp.3..0l2.1919.4087.0.4501.19.13.1.0.0.0.370.2363.1j9j2j1.13.0...0.0...1ac.1.2R7_46BA5Mg
Or maybe more topically, ConDem Air?
'That is propaganda cooked up by the tabloid press. There is no evidence of it at all.'
On the basis the Telegraph's report is correct,how can the judges decision for this convicted drug dealer & illegal immigrant be anything other than taking the piss.?
'Hesham Mohammed Ali won an appeal against moves by Theresa May, the Home Secretary, to deport him because of his crimes.
He convinced a judge he had a “family life” which had to be respected because he had a “genuine” relationship with a British woman – despite already having two children by different women with whom he now has no contact.
Ali also mounted an extraordinary claim that his life would be in danger in his native Iraq because he was covered in tattoos, including a half-naked Western woman – a claim which was only dismissed after exhaustive legal examination.'
Meanwhile more GDP growth in the law enforcement industries even as I type. Marvelous, if we opened our doors to a few more like him we would be booming. No pun intended.
http://www.liberty-human-rights.org.uk/human-rights/human-rights/the-human-rights-act/what-the-rights-mean/article-8-right-to-a-private-and-family-life.php
The crucial element appears to be:
"Article 8 also provides the right to respect for one’s established family life. This includes close family ties, although there is no pre-determined model of a family or family life. It includes any stable relationship, be it married, engaged, or de facto"
It may be true (depending on Iraqi immigration law) that what you choose to call his doxy could move with him to Iraq, but British law doesn't embrace the concept of punishing people for the acts of their partners by requiring them to separate or move to a country unknown to them. Basically people who settle with someone British living in Britain is entitled to live in Britain too - it's a principle that has operated for decades, and is for instance why Abu Hamza was given British citizenship under Mrs Thatcher in 1983.
The fact highlighted by the Telegraph that he's had some previous relationships is neither here nor there. I dare say that some of us have also had relationships before marriage, without needing to fear that this will cause us to be deported.
It's obviously an unpopular case and he doesn't sound a nice chap, but it's good to see that the legal system continues to operate according to the law as approved by Parliament without bending to take account of press coverage and public pressure.
But the man is clearly a muslim.
UKIP would have sent him packing on the very next cargo plane to Baghdad.
And as for his doxy, I am sure there are plenty of British men with saucy tattoos to comfort her in her loss.
This is human rights gone mad whatever you, tim and LIAMT might claim.
It's just another example of the political class being a separate caste.
I don't think that's what Parliament had in mind when they passed the various Human Rights laws.
There was a cat, and the judge off-handedly referred to it in his judgment (essentially as "the cat will be relieved you're staying), but it was unimportant to the case. Theresa May took it out of context to try and make a story and had it blow up in her face.
Its also exposing the lie that Assad has a massive impenetrable air defence network in place. Individual batteries aside, the integrated air defence network has been very badly damaged for months.
The equally partisan news outlets I read came down on the opposite side when considering the pivotal status of the cat.
Are there any impartial legal opinions which can split the difference here?
https://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/36754/judicial_office_cat_had_nothing_to_do_with_deportation.html
The best bit had to be Theresa prefacing her story with "I am not making this up".
In their original application the couple gave details of their life together, mentioned the cat as a detail, but the case and the appeal hinged upon whether the Home Office had been applying its own policies properly in the case (it hadn't).
There's factcheck if you like.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-theresa-may-caught-catnapping-on-the-job/8064
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/6360116/Immigrant-allowed-to-stay-because-of-pet-cat.html
and
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15171980
carry the quote from the Judicial office.
"Within minutes, a spokesman for the Judicial Office at the Royal Courts of Justice, which issues statements on behalf of senior judges, said: "This was a case in which the Home Office conceded that they had mistakenly failed to apply their own policy - applying at that time to that appellant - for dealing with unmarried partners of people settled in the UK.
"That was the basis for the decision to uphold the original tribunal decision - the cat had nothing to do with the decision.""
Here's fullfact
http://fullfact.org/blog/catgate_catflap_Daily_Mail_imigrant_bolivian_cat_deportation-3018
Which has the original ruling itself at the bottom if you wish to read (note that's the original ruling, not the appeal one)
Are there other examples of MPs attempting to stop people reading what they think? Usually I was only too keen for people to read my stuff in whatever media would print it. She's obviously entitled to restrict her thoughts to a narrow circle if she wishes, but it seems very odd.
Bet they wouldn't have said that if if were a Persian rather than a Maine Coon.
2. That's not on twitter, that's a normal official press release that politicshome is reporting (the tweet button is what you'd push if you wanted to tweet the story).
3. The defence listed it as part of their case in the original trial, both in that trial and then more explicitly in the appeal the key question was the Home Office policy at the time.
Yes, I saw that that defence used the cat on both occasions, hence their comment that I quoted saying that it was a "detail" that was used. That's specifically why I didn't bother linking to it; the same quote could be used in/out of context whether defending/attacking Mrs May's comments.
I'm quite happy being instinctively sceptical of anyone who says "I'm not making this up". Sets off my bsht radar every time.
Nick, you should follow Anna Soubry on Twitter for latest updates, or visit her website to read her newsletters. She certainly doesn't seem to be trying to prevent anyone from reading what she thinks as you imply in your post.
Twitter
Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP 25 Apr
My latest email newsletter is up on my website. Click through to it for a mixed bag of news: http://bit.ly/ZQBBcw
If you don't follow Anna on twitter, just go to her website where she openly and clearly provides a link to her email newsletters. You will no doubt see her final comment regarding the reason behind the end of her monthly column in the 'local non-partisan' newspaper', which puts a slightly different slant on why she is no longer contributing to this newspaper.
"and finally...
For many years the previous MP had a monthly column in the small community paper The Beeston Express right up to the General Election in 2010. Since my election I have had the same opportunity to communicate with constituents about my work on a non partisan basis. Unfortunately, the Editor has exercised her right and has decided to cancel my monthly column. For some time people have been complaining to me that the Beeston Express is no longer the great impartial community newspaper it once was. I am disappointed that the Editor chose to ignore two statements from me about Field Farm and has now refused me the same opportunity as my predecessor. I will continue to express my views and provide updates on my work via this newsletter."