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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not a bad set of weekend polls for Labour but doubts fueled
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not a bad set of weekend polls for Labour but doubts fueled by the leader ratings remain
Very irritatingly Opinium don’t publish their full dataset until after the weekend so we have yet to see the firm’s fortnightly leader approval ratings and a Euro election poll that they carried out.
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bit of a nerdy moment, but does anyone know what the buttons on the speakers chair do (just to the right of his shoulder)?
http://i.imgur.com/1W2LNqe.png
The figures in the graphic shown suggest that they are all multiples of 0.2, and that perhaps it's an average of 5 polls which have multiples of 1.
A long-serving Liberal Democrat MP said: “It is certainly the case that strength and breadth of support for Lord Rennard in the Lords is quite eyebrow-raising. You have to remember that the Lords is stuffed full of lawyers who are angry over the cavalier way that proper procedure has been thrown to the wind.”
Well, thank God for LibDem lawyers... Farron and Clegg would be wise to listen to them.
Rennard 'could face new investigation'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25798256
which is so wrong-headed I'm lost for words. The LibDem witch-hunt is starting to bear an uncanny resemblance to one of my own experiences. That ended badly, with the implosion of the organization and the personal bankruptcies of the witchfinders...
The people who are "bringing the party into disrepute" are those who are contumaciously and publicly contesting the party's own rules, and its lawful decisions.
Now that's a scandal! :-)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2541857/The-earl-35m-Downton-dilemma-How-son-flamboyant-peer-paid-older-sisters-left-fathers-selling-Freud-masterpiece-proved-mothers-adultery.html
Can anyone confirm?
The LDs are in a massive hole here which could be very dangerous and potentially worse than tuition fees.
I don't see why the BBC put The Bridge espisodes back-to-back. There are only 10. Oh well. We're six episodes in, and last night was, again, rather enjoyable.
Mr. Smithson, whilst that may potentially be the case I suspect it won't be. Rennard is not a household name (unlike many going through the courts right now), and my understanding is that the allegations are less serious than current court cases, the coverage of which will overshadow him and the Lib Dems for most people.
That said, it certainly won't help the yellows.
Mike Smithson wrote on the previous thread :
"I've been warching 2 hours of the Bridge and am only just catching up with the site.
If people seek to use what I regard as offensive terms then they will get posts deleted and, if they persist, find themselves not wanted here.
If you want to moan about it go some place else.
Do I make myself clear"
...................................................................
I hope that as one of PB's longest standing contributors you will allow me to address this issue in the wider interests of the site.
Firstly the offending word was used entirely within the correct historical context of a friendly discussion on the merits of marmalade. At no time was it used to insult or offend other users. That such use of a word and the subsequent moderation came to pass is an embarrassment to PB.
Clearly you find the word offensive and out of context this might be true but surely not in this case.
To a large degree this goes to the heart of PB, its growing reputation and your own sensibilities. To my mind the success of the site means that it is now more important than the site owners own personal views. You have responsibilities not only to your own beliefs but to the wider considerations of the values that PB has championed, that to my mind has always included a liberal interpretation of freedom of expression.
Being a site owner of a nationally acclaimed political website is no easy task. Having to manage a diverse group in an true OGH fashion must try the patience of the mostly saintly of saints and you will know I have the highest regard for the outstanding job that you and Robert have done over the years.
However may I ask you to reflect calmly and in the wider interest of this fine site to set aside your decision. It takes a big man to publically accept a mistake and I believe you are such a man.
Thank you.
The LibDem position should be:-
1. Case closed.
2. STFU, you are bringing the party into disrepute, and are palpably liable to sanction yourselves.
3. If you don't like the rules and natural justice, tender your resignations from this party, else see 2.
And I can assure you, the 'strictly legal view' is the only one which will prevail, should this mess come to the attention of the courts, as well it might...
For a LD party with few prominent women or ethnic minorities to look like the only way ahead for candidates is the casting couch would be very destructive.
It does not seem as if Rennard broke the law, but there is a large amount of crude and boorish behavior short of illegality that needs addressing.
Renard the Fox, inside the coop, with all those L/Dem chickens, Not a pretty sight!
A former aide to Nick Clegg has quit the Liberal Democrats and accused him of a failure to show "moral leadership" in the Lord Rennard sexual harassment row.
Bridget Harris was one of four party activists who made allegations against the peer." Link PH
Down with the tyranny of Old Grumpy Head!
Free the Thailand One!
Bring Back SeanT!
Establish corrective re-education centres where those who stifle legitimate free speech on the pretext of politically-correct hystericalism will be forced to knit variously-cultured rag doll toys!
Just saying.
Not sure I'd consider a land value tax to be liberal, though.
Yes The Bridge was fantastic last night but I'm not convinced with playing two episodes immediatly after each other.
The scene in which our heroine, Saga, is in bed with her partner while her prospective mother-in-law is also at the flat must have been a first in any TV series.
Where are you voting?
MoS says Lynton Crosby has told Tories they must produce "new policy to curb immigrants and benefits" every week - http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jan/19/ed-milibands-interview-on-the-andrew-marr-show-politics-live-blog#block-52db9884e4b040bca45b4bc2 …
On reflection (I think you raised it last week) I think it probably is better than Homeland. Perhaps because it's a shorter series (I think, anyway), and there are practically no scenes that feel superfluous. Interesting that both have female leads with, er, interesting personalities and male colleagues with difficult home lives.
The bridge is impressive though...
He is their problem now, though.
I hope all the other parties have robust procedures for any form of bullying, just as companies should have. Although I bet Labour's on bullying hasn't been tightened up after McBride/Campbell... ;-)
"the boat-owner", FFS.
Infantile pap.
Pompous drivel. It's Mike Smithson's website and he can enforce any rules he likes. You may find them illiberal, Jack, and on another day I might find them illiberal, but since neither of us are liberals that's hardly relevant, is it?
Rennard's also been high up in the news cycle for a few days now, added onto the headlines a year ago. It may well have an effect. Sleaze did for the Tories 20 years ago; the Lib Dems have to be careful not to get themselves into a similar position. Sadly, with Huhne and Hancock, that's a (small) possibility that they will.
Rennard undoubtably has talents, and his pavement politics has brought benefits to the party.
It does seem that, as in other parts of public life, "talent" is allowed a lot of leeway that is not permitted for others. This has elsewhere bitten a few organisations on the arse and done a lot of long term damage.
Jobs for the boys girls...
The handling of it is another matter. But again, not a shock.
What is the best way? I would suggest taxes should be fair, and - if at all possible - avoid distorting the functioning of a market economy.
I think taxing inefficient use of capital is not a bad way - and is certainly better than taxing work, which is something I think we all want to encourage.
As an aside, I'm good friends with the Pirate's UK Press Officer. He's suitably nuts (Hi Harry!), but he's also smart as a button. The Pirates are much more likely, I suspect, to think of innovative solutions to problems, than the - frankly populist - UKIP.
I feel a bit sorry for Clegg in this; it's a longstanding mess. There'll be no satisfactory resolution now - someone (or some people, or the party, and possible the lot of them) will end up being hard done by.
And all because the Lib Dems had no procedures for such things, or did not follow them, years ago.
Orwell, 1984 , appendix
Belfont was a crook, plain and simple. Scorcese gets sucked into the pizzazz and superficial glamour and doesn't think at all about consequences for his victims who just don't figure in the movie at all.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE3r_CgScms
I thought Wolf/Wall St was a great film, but the much more worthy 12 Years A Slave left me numb, zonked out by the sheer brutality of it.
I guess it's a case of horses for courses.
"matter should be declared closed. Clegg should have remained neutral."
"people should respect internal laws."
"should be the end of the debate."
Never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake.
Carlile "Webster should not have made the comments he made"
Exactly what I said yesterday....
"internal rules", surely?
Re 1984, one thing that struck me when I first read it at the age of 11 was why anyone wanted to be a party member. Just dropping out and becoming a Prole looked like a much better deal - free gin and prnography, as much sex as you could manage and nobody in authority gives a toss what you say or do. A bit like life on some of our sink estates really.
Wolf of Wall Street is an appalling piece of work,bested only by Counsellor..did anyone actually read the scripts..
q.v. the Left...
Frankly, it looks a mess. The alleged "casting couch" culture is shameful, and should have been sorted out years ago, and gives the impression that the LDs are, at best, naive.
Hence the reason why he has been found not guilty, but there is an argument that he should apologise.
Only 7 of their 57 MPs are female, but it is even worse in the 40yr to 60yr age range where only 2 out of 34 (40yr to 60yr) LD MPs are female. Is this the real legacy of the Rennard time at the top of their party?
As an aside, I'm good friends with the Pirate's UK Press Officer. He's suitably nuts (Hi Harry!), but he's also smart as a button. The Pirates are much more likely, I suspect, to think of innovative solutions to problems, than the - frankly populist - UKIP.
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Yes rcs100, anything to beat UKIP over the head with, you now bring in the Pirate party to assist you. You and your ilk must be really, really, scared of the growing UKIP phenom. It must absolutely give you the jitters to see your lovely, cosy, two party system become undone; thread by thread.
Anyway, quick moan. This Musketeers business is 10 one hour episodes.
The BBC currently has War and Peace in production for 6 one hour epsiodes. At that pace people will be marrying widows before the last spouse is cold. The 1972 production was 15 hours long which was just about right. Trying to do War and Peace in the same span as Pride and Prejudice is just pointless, and they'll just end up with a generic Ruski melodrama.
The accused (we don't have defendants in Scotland) will receive service of a Petition which is the type of charge sheet used when there is to be a Sheriff and Jury or High Court prosecution as will occur here.
They may be waiting for the initial results of the post mortem to decide what the charge should be. If they believe the child was intentionally killed it will be Murder. If they believe the child was unintentionally or inadvertently killed it will be Culpable Homicide (Manslaughter in England). If they believe the child died of natural causes it could be something like Preventing a Lawful Burial and Attempting to Pervert the Course of Justice.
Normally in cases like this the accused will be remanded in custody and therefore the trial must begin within 3 months though it can be adjourned by agreement of both sides and in special circumstances by the court.
I have no idea what sort of man Rennard is but I suspect I have a pretty clear idea of how he probably views himself (we are all deluded about our own attractiveness as we get older. We all see ourselves as we were when we were 20). Accepting you are no longer attractive to women is a tough bit of personal enlightenment and I would suspect this clouded his whole attitude to the women around him.
Was he wrong to press his case with them? Yes undoubtedly. It was crass and I would like to think I had more self awareness but being happily married I have not had the opportunity to test my own chivalry in that way for a good few decades. But in the end he did nothing illegal and if we are going to say that being crass and obnoxious is now a cause for dismissal from a political party then I am not sure how many politicians we would have left.
If Rennard has done something that breaks the law (either civil or criminal) then he should be prosecuted for it and suffer the consequences from the Lib Dems. If he has been obnoxious and overbearing and made people feel uncomfortable but has not done anything that amounts to a provable case of sexual harassment then the Lib Dems really should be accepting the findings of their own investigation and moving on.
Otherwise you will end up with the sort of charges that were mocked by 'Not the 9 O'clock News'. "Looking at me in a funny way" "Being in possession of an offensive wife"
Borough of Tower Hamlets: a byword for sleaze
Muslim mayor Lutfur Rahman in line of fire over public grants in Tower Hamlets, East London
" Mr Golds said: “I think we know what the perceived community benefits in these cases are: the re-election of Lutfur Rahman. This council is out of control and its behaviour smacks of the days of Dame Shirley Porter.”
John Biggs, Mr Rahman’s Labour opponent for the mayoralty, said: “It looks as if Lutfur Rahman is trying to use taxpayers’ money to buy votes.”
Dame Shirley, the gerrymanderer of the Westminster “homes for votes” scandal in the late Eighties and early Nineties, was eventually disqualified, humiliated and forced into exile – but don’t expect anything to happen to Lutfur Rahman any time soon.
Terrified of being accused of racism, the authorities appear content to let Tower Hamlets stew in its own juice. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10581958/Borough-of-Tower-Hamlets-a-byword-for-sleaze.html
Not knowing a lot about the circumstances there is likely to be a question mark about whether the charge will be murder or culpable homicide. The latter may arise if there has been an accident or if there are mental health issues. This is why the paper is reporting a charge in connection with the death.
Even if she is charged with murder at this point the charge may be reduced to cupl hom later on when more information is available.
When the word matters more than the context all hope is lost. Maybe it is time for a change...?
:young-turks:
One of Britain’s biggest charities, whose patron is Prince Harry, has used hundreds of thousands of pounds of donors’ money to pay the boarding school fees of its chief executive’s children.
The Halo Trust, whose trustees include the actress Angelina Jolie, has sanctioned the payment of tens of thousands of pounds a year for more than a decade to fund the private education of Guy Willoughby’s four children.
Mr Willoughby, who founded the mine clearance charity, receives a financial package worth between £210,000 and £220,000 a year, according to the most recent accounts. The package includes the cost of sending his children to two of Britain’s most expensive private schools – Oundle School in Northamptonshire, attended by Mr Willoughby’s son, and Queen Margaret’s School in York, where two of his daughters study.
Oundle currently charges £30,705 a year for boarders while Queen Margaret’s charges £27,825 although there is an additional discount for siblings. Mr Willoughby admitted to The Telegraph that the cost of boarding school was “staggering”.
Eritrea Willoughby, Mr Willoughby’s eldest child, is now at university but also had her boarding school fees paid for by the charity......
Tom McMullen, the charity’s chairman of trustees, said the schools invoiced Halo, which then paid the fees direct. He was unable to say precisely how much was paid to the schools by the charity.
The practice has been in place at Halo for more than a decade although no mention is made of the arrangement in the charity’s accounts or on its website. ...
Mr Willoughby, 53, a former soldier and jockey, co-founded Halo in 1988 and has seen it grow into one of the UK’s biggest charities. Last year the charity, whose headquarters are in Scotland, had income of more than £26 million, including £4 million of taxpayers’ money from the Department for International Development.
It employs about 7,000 mine clearers from the countries in which it operates as well as 30 expatriate managers.
Staff who have worked for the organisation for more than seven years are eligible for its school fees scheme. Only Mr Willoughby and two to three other members of staff currently qualify.
The charity rose to prominence in 1997 when Diana, Princess of Wales, visited a minefield in Angola being cleared by Halo shortly before her death.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/prince-harry/10581795/Charity-backed-by-Prince-Harry-and-Angelina-Jolie-pays-boarding-school-fees-for-its-chief-executive.html
Probably because Dumas wrote his novels as a series of pieces for magazines each being published before the next was completed. This meant that not only did each episode have to include a mini-climax and a hook for the next one thus leaving readers with a sense of satisfaction and anticipation. Additionally, there is no way of knowing where a Dumas novel is going to go as you read it, probably because the author didn't really know when he was writing it.
An interesting technique, Dickens I think did something similar. I wonder if we could persuade Morris Dancer to have a go at it with his planned Sir Edric series.