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Looking ahead to 2022 Senate Elections – politicalbetting.com
Looking ahead to 2022 Senate Elections – politicalbetting.com
There are four months until the next set of US elections. And midterms – normally – are not kind to the incumbent party. And that’s in normal times: this time around, you have an unpopular President lacking his predecessor’s hard core of support, and an unprecedented cost of living increase.
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Leftist Feminist Atheist Vegan Pro-life
https://mobile.twitter.com/hbernton/status/1540778670549151744/photo/1
Fetterman-Oz is fascinating. The former may not make it though thanks to health issues.
So would I! What a great Government it would be
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1543650827545591808
If you’re OK with a celebrity TV doctor who ISN’T FROM PA and has a house that used to belong to King George…
I am, uh, not your candidate.
Sounds like he could go far.
In a big tactical shift, Starmer will use a speech to denounce the “mess” created by the UK prime minister’s 2020 Brexit deal and the breakdown of trust with the EU caused by the row over the trading arrangements for Northern Ireland.
The Labour leader has until now shied away from talking about Brexit, fearing it would alienate Leave voters, but he has been emboldened by emerging evidence of the hit the departure has inflicted on the economy.
He will claim that Labour can “make Brexit work”, arguing that Johnson’s Brexit deal had contributed to a sense of a country that was “stuck”, with wages and growth stagnating and broken public services.
...
“Nothing about revisiting those rows will help stimulate growth or bring down food prices or help British business thrive in the modern world — it would simply be a recipe for more division,” he will say.
Labour would seek a veterinary agreement with the EU to cut onerous agrifood checks, mutual recognition of product standards and a deal on mobility to facilitate short business trips and help artists tour in Europe.
Starmer would use the agrifood deal to remove most checks on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and negotiate a trusted trader scheme to end the stand-off with Brussels over the rules, contained in the part of the Brexit deal called the Northern Ireland Protocol.
It just beggars belief. We have had 14 years since the financial crisis and we still seem unable or unwilling to deal with the fundamental problem with the British economy. What you might call the banking financial property complex. The solution to unaffordable housing is always to make credit more easily available. Is Starmer set to pounce and call this out for what it is? I'm not holding my breath. But before you pile in on Starmer have the Lib Dems said anything. Has Blair or any other elder statesman ever felt the need to comment?
For one thing, you fail to mention that he is a major media performer who comes across quite well on TV. No doubt the chief reason 45 backs him.
AND overestimating dual citizenship and Jersey taint. As well as Fetterman's innate appeal. PLUS not mentioning HIS health issue; having a stroke on eve of primary NOT a good look.
However, possible that strength of Democratic AG and gubernatorial nominee Josh Shapiro over his wingnut GOP opponent might help Fetterman over the top.
After winning a landslide in 2019 largely due to his own personal appeal, the Prime Minister now risks tarnishing the Tory brand.
By contrast, more people say Keir Starmer is a reason for them to vote Labour at the next election than those who say he is a turn-off.
Some 29 per cent of people not planning to vote Conservative in 2024 say Mr Johnson being leader has turned them off, while 35 per cent say they do not trust the Tories to stick to their promises and 24 per cent say the party is not doing a good job in government.
A total of 22 per cent blame rule-breaking by No 10 and Tory figures during the pandemic, while the same proportion said they were never likely to vote Conservative anyway.
The Prime Minister has a net dissatisfaction rating of 64 per cent, while just 20 per cent are satisfied with him in No 10.
Sir Keir’s ratings are more favourable, although there is not an overwhelming support for the Labour leader: his net dissatisfaction rating is the same as the proportion who are satisfied, at 30 per cent.
Of those who say they will not vote Labour at the next election, 25 per cent cite Sir Keir as the reason, while 21 per cent say the party does not have the right plan to deal with the major issues facing the country.
Out of all voters, 29 per cent say Sir Keir’s leadership makes voting Labour more appealing, while 23 per cent say it makes support for his party less appealing.
A key scene is Dr Oz kissing his little street stone in Hollywood. Just screams elite and lefty California etc etc
That's because the plan isn't to make housing more affordable for young families, or to help first time buyers onto the housing ladder.
The plan is to keep the ponzi going at all costs to inflate the asset value of existing home owners, most of whom are a) older and b) vote Conservative.
Increasing demand via longer (hence more affordable, in repayment terms at least) mortgages, as well as introducing sub-prime mortgages for benefit claimants, add more demand to a system with limited supply. That's the idea. As has been the idea of every other plan aimed at helping "young" "first time buyers" "stretched families" etc.
Help to buy, stamp duty freeze, etc, all pushed house prices up to the benefit of those who already owned houses. This latest wheeze is no different.
For example, while I like Beto O'Rourke, would prefer Dr Phil as our candidate this year in Texas!
As for the carpetbagger tag, that is WAY more effective with rural voters than in cities or suburbs. That is, the type of folks who've been voting GOP up & down the ticket for years. AND who just put Oz over the top in the VERY VERY close GOP primary.
Absolutely fascinating contest.
RIP.
Personally (as among other things a native son of the Keystone State) think that's a load of phooey. Mostly because intended audience will be more impressed with Oz's success (as documented) than by his largess (ditto). Similar to how they perceived 45.
Plus (as a bush-league consultant myself) thing the ad looks cheap and hokey, and will come across like that to Pennamite audience.
But we shall see. Just hope that Fetterman's folks can come up with something way better.
Which I'm guess is the plan, this one is more to show the flag, give heart to donors (actual & potential) and discombobulate Oz & his Munchkins (including 45). Though reckon latter is faint hope.
Bit 1970s I guess.
You can already get 'lifetime' mortgages in old age to release equity; why not just have a longer repayment period when you take out the mortgage? Surely pension income is just as secure as employment income.
I confess I don't know: but was there anything actually stopping banks doing this already?
I accept that a key argument against it is it just adds to house prices.
In my experience, today's youth, whatever their opinions, are quite unpersuaded by having boomers telling then how they SHOULD think.
What a strange generation!
Esp. in state where Jimmy Carter's immediate predecessor as governor, Lester Maddox (also Lt Gov at same time JC was Gov) who first came to fame by chasing Blacks out of his Atlanta restaurant with an ax-handle.
Science fiction writer Larry Niven has a thought for you: "There is no cause so right that one cannot find a fool following it." To which I would add, or hypocrite.
But for those who think they can prove a generality by an example, I'll give you two, one on each side: The late Nat Hentoff: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nat_Hentoff
And the late Hugh Hefner, who had very practical financial reasons for favoring abortion, just like Boris Johnson.
I don't think either Hentoff or Hefner was hypocritical in his beliefs about abortion. (As it happens, there are pro-life members of my family -- and none of them fit your caricature, though I don't doubt that it is possible to find a few people that do, human beings being imperfect.)
Shall we mention the potential for being in negative equity for 10+ years...
Two stray thoughts: Right now, naitonally the enthusiasm gap is definitely in the Republicans favor.
Here in Washington state, our senator, Patty Murray, is running expensive TV ads, both positive and negative, even before our primary. Why, I have no idea. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patty_Murray )
In the FAA we "railed" plenty of other ships in a similar manner though. The only one who ever complained was a Canadian Halifax class in the Atlantic so we went round and did it again.
Anyone who says the situation can be fixed by other than building lots of houses is a liar.
No, that would be 204% .
> to boost her showing in upcoming August primary
> because polling released by her likely general election opponent, virtually unknown Republican Tiffany Smiley, show Murray at 48, Smiley at 43, a lead for incumbent (first elected 1992) of just one percentage-point above the poll's margin of error.
Poll paid for by Smiley, but they Murray is doing her own polling - obviously.
Patty is long both in seniority (five terms, first elected 1992) and tooth (age 77) but she's still got most of her marbles, and all her desire to win re-election.
In her last mid-term election, versus well-known but hard-right Dino Rossi (who only lost 2004 governor's race by 133 votes statewide) Patty got 52% of the vote. She won 59% in 2016, but note her Republican opponent that year was a Never-Trumper which alienated part of the GOP base who skipped the race.
So it's possible that, in a less-than-stellar mid-term year for Democrats, a fresh face MIGHT (emphasis on conditional) give Patty are real run for her political life.
Maybe someone like Smiley, who is 41 and a veterans advocate whose been caregiver to her husband (wounded by suicide bomber in Iraq) and other wounded vets at Walter Reed Hospital and in eastern WA. Yet to be seen how she'd do on the campaign trail OR on the TV screen, but we should find out very soon. Clearly the Evergreen State GOP establishment (or what passes for it these days) is putting it's support (for what that's worth these days) behind Tiffany Smiley.
This in same election year that Republicans are loaded for bear to recapture the 9th congressional district (distinct possibility post-redistricting) and will almost certainly supporting a declared Nonpartisan independent for Secretary of State. AND in which thousands of Democrats will be voting for a Republican who supported Trump's impeachment for US House (Herrera Beutler or Newhouse) in two districts where they will face pro-Trump Putinist Republicans this Fall.
So Patty's has a BIG early ad buy. Anticipate seeing WAY more from now through November 8!
You and I may disagree on this, but I don't think most observers here would call Dino Rossi "hard-right". If I recall correctly, Clint Didier, who could be called "hard-right", did not endorse Rossi after the primary.
"Instead of seeking to win through competition, founders of new companies should build monopolies."
It's coming to the stage where I'm starting to want to see Musk brought down a level or three. And Thiel with him.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10978527/Police-let-22-000-suspects-roam-fail-attend-court.html
The party of law and order! Boris would no doubt bluster that this is why they are recruiting more police, forgetting to mention who cut the police in the first place.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/sas-bans-offensive-nicknames-doris-27383545
The Mirror reports SAS top brass have outlawed:-
Crabs = RAF — as pb will know, thanks to @Dura_Ace
Doris = lady soldiers
Ruperts = officers
The Mirror adds that:-
It is understood the ruling came after an Intelligence Corps soldier complained about the nickname Green Slime, in reference to the Corps’ beret colour.
He said he felt “humiliated” after, “Anything from green slime?” was said at a briefing.
Last year, SAS officers were banned from calling the SBS the ‘Shaky Boats Service’.
The MoD does not comment on the special forces.
F1: what a splendid race. Must be said the new regulations continue to work very well in allowing closer racing.
If you fall into commas over that you’ve got a condition that sounds worse than a life sentence.
Focusing on Hitler and Henry VIII is too narrow, warns Tory MP Alexander Stafford
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/03/much-focus-hitler-henry-viii-school-history-curriculum-mp-warns/ (£££)
ETA later today there will be an Adjournment debate on this subject in the House of Commons.
But, unlike the Americans who tended to adopt callsigns like Viper and Maverick the ones the Brits went for included Alien, Dogbreath, Cholmondley and Spastic.
216 Squadron RAF also has just four full-time personnel
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/04/rafs-flagship-drone-squadron-has-no-drones/ (£££)
How the Founders Intended to Check the Supreme Court’s Power
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/07/03/dont-expand-the-supreme-court-shrink-it-00043863
Probably some ways off Democrats having the votes, but I think it will happen this decade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jDUVtUA7rg
tl;dl: the German military is screwed atm. They spend vast amounts and get very little for it. And there might not be much appetite to fix its problems.
It wasn’t I think deliberate, the people designing it were just, surprise surprise, totally incompetent.
Whether a Tory MP will have the guts to actually say this is another question.
Troop cuts will leave the Army at breaking point, says Lord Dannatt
Government’s decision to shed 10,000 soldiers is ’madness’ as Britain faces resurgent threat from Russia, says retired general
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/03/troop-cuts-will-leave-army-breaking-point-says-lord-dannatt/ (£££)
The housing market is custom rigged to inflate demand and constrict supply, so as to make older voters who are already owner-occupiers feel richer, and enable them to pass on a vast trove of wealth to their children when they die. The grey vote has the politics of the country in a choke hold, its main priorities are boosting the value of pensions and house prices, so that's what happens.
It's no wonder that this country has such a problem with lack of productivity and business investment when so much of the national wealth is locked up in dead piles of bricks that do nothing, save for enabling banks and landlords to bleed the finances of mortgage payers and renters white. If housing costs for most people of working age were reasonable rather than extortionate, average disposable incomes would be much higher, levels of deprivation much lower, and the economy would be transformed accordingly. But no, we must have stupidly expensive homes because this suits existing owners, hence the fact that virtually any attempt to build new ones is (a) punished at the ballot box and (b) fought tooth and nail by hordes of furious nimbies.
Major weekend of sport behind us; similar week ahead from the looks of it!
What sort of a mess, though, have our politics become? Will Durham police announce 'no case to answer' for the LOTO, or will the PM be able to wriggle out of his problems again?
Is still pink wine supposed to be chilled like white wine or left out like red wine?
In the USN you get your callsign from the instructors at the end of RAG/FRS or from the other crew in the first posting to the fleet. You don't get to choose it but the CO has a veto.
Unless you are 70+ years old.
A mildly amusing party trick is to see if, unseen, people can tell the difference between red and white wine at room temperature. (They can't.)
She took ages to reach a decision and then split the difference whereas he makes a really crap decision quickly and then it takes ages before he relents and does some of what he should have done in the first place.
However, to do that and re-equip properly would probably take a 60% uplift in the Army's budget (maybe an extra £10-12bn a year, every year) and 3-4 years to achieve so I don't expect it anytime soon.
London seems to manage to build these - albeit at "market rates" which means the price is stupid. But little anywhere else. Doesn't help that post Grenfell nobody trusts the industry or the government not to build death traps for profit.
As I have said before the solution is to spin out Housing Associations to commercially build these snazzy apartment blocks who h are never ever up for sale. Increase supply of property people need at prices they can afford, take the lunacy out of the market and rebalance things so that renting - at same prices that don't pay someone else's mortgage - becomes normal as it is in places like Germany.
Most got that the grape was Sauvignion Blanc, but the question of origin was more perplexing. Uncle Baxter claimed both were French, while most of us picked A or B.
Baxter was right though, my FiL had indeed accidentally wrapped two of the same wine...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sex-scandal-revitalises-rebel-plot-to-topple-boris-johnson-jdtx6lbn0 https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1543851370649886720/photo/1
One "compromise" plan gaining currency: instead of removing Johnson's 1 year immunity from another vote, you introduce a new rule saying that a new confidence vote can be triggered by letters from 25% of Conservative MPs (that's currently 90)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sex-scandal-revitalises-rebel-plot-to-topple-boris-johnson-jdtx6lbn0