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The Swingback Myth – Do governments really recover? – politicalbetting.com
The Swingback Myth – Do governments really recover? – politicalbetting.com
(This analysis first appeared on PB in December 2007 and has been much quoted both here and in the mainstream media since. It’s even more timely today and I thought it was worth re-running – MS)
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Commenting on twelve-year-old threads could become one of the internet's more obscure hobbies.
Evening all
Once again it's all too easy to view the future through the prism of the past and assume what happened then will happen now. The events since the last GE make this a unique Parliament and assuming past polling characteristics will occur in the second half of the Parliament when they didn't in the first seems unwise.
Will Johnson going make the difference some on here hope? Short answer, I don't know - it depends the event to which the anger has been internalised against Johnson himself or whether there is a deeper malaise against the Conservatives in general - arguably understandable after 12 years as the leading party.
Any successor will face the same horrendous economic backdrop and it's hard to see (thought I note some on here have now called for the complete suspension of fuel duty. That was worth 26 billion in 2021/22 and of course with the petrol price running presumably even more as more people are coming back on to the roads.
I don't see any Chancellor voluntarily wanting to give up £26-30 billion in revenue.
Thus the central arguments for Johnson going - is he a loser? Is there anyone who would be a proven winner for the Conservatives? - remain unresolved. Hunt is no Heseltine and Sunak is no Major so the death spiral potentially goes on.
This winter, assuming the conflict in Ukraine drags on, is going to be very difficult for a lot of people even those who have perhaps weathered the storm quite well to date.
It does seem the refineries are doing very well and as this Government is such a big plan of windfall taxes perhaps they should be the next target.
Many congratulations sir. I hadn’t seen the news. Welcome to fatherhood.
For the 2005-2010 Government, it depends on when “mid-term” is defined. Swing to Tories from 2007. Swing to Government from 2008. Both held and both broke.
For the 2010-15 Government there was indeed a pronounced swingback to both Tories and Government. Both held.
For the 2015-17 Government, both rules broke.
And for the 2017-19 Government, you can’t really measure it anyway because mid-term polling was so far all over the shop that it was out the window, across the road, and in the local park.
Conclusions: There was once a rule about swingback to Governments. It morphed into a rule about swingback to Tories (possibly due to shy Tory syndrome), but this was masked because for 18 years, they were the same thing.
Then the latter rule stuttered and since fell apart. Now: God knows. Could be bloody anything, really. Don’t rely on swingback, swingaway, swing low, sweet chariot.
And casual insouciance is a feature.
If HMT can retrench and come out the other side by spring 2024, then the government have a decent chance of winning. But that's a big (though not impossible) if.
We are supposed to be weaning ourselves off fossil fuels for example.
Yet we are mulling another cut in fuel duty so that folk can keep driving.
Rather than putting out a message to cut unnecessary journeys.
The Prince of Wales has privately described the government’s policy to send migrants to Rwanda as “appalling”, The Times has been told.
Prince Charles is said to be particularly frustrated at Boris Johnson’s asylum policy as he is due to represent the Queen at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda, this month.
Migrants who arrive in Britain illegally face being deported to Rwanda, more than 4,000 miles away, under a deal struck by Priti Patel, the home secretary, in April.
Today Patel overcame an initial legal challenge to the policy after a High Court judge ruled that the first flight due to deport migrants on Tuesday could go ahead.
A source had heard Charles, 73, expressing opposition to the policy several times in private and said he was particularly uncomfortable about it amid fears that it would overshadow the summit on June 23.
“He said he was more than disappointed at the policy,” the source said. “He said he thinks the government’s whole approach is appalling. It was clear he was not impressed with the government’s direction of travel.”
Clarence House did not deny that Charles was opposed to the policy
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-charles-flying-migrants-to-rwanda-is-appalling-l6jzklfhm
#TakeBackControlFromOurUnelectedRulers
We've wasted enough time to Covid already, and we've all been repeatedly jabbed. If we potentially get infected twice a year from now on, then that's potentially four weeks of isolation for the rest of time if that's the madness you want to go down.
Absolutely not, screw that. If I catch Covid, then I won't know its Covid since I won't be taking a test (last time, I've had worse manflu's before). If I felt I needed it, I'd take some paracetamol, or Lemsip, or Strepsils - and live life normally.
You said about taking "common courtesy to take basic precautions" and I completely agree. The basic precaution is wash your hands, cover your mouth if you need to cough, and cover your nose if you need to sneeze. That's it, that's all I'll be doing if I have Covid or any other airborne virus. If I knew I had Covid I'd quite happily go shopping, or go to the cinema, or theatre, or a restaurant, or the airport as per normal.
If you want to hide behind doors for the rest of time, or behind a mask, then you can. I'll keep my vaccines up to date as required and put my faith in my own and everybody else's vaccine to do its job.
What's unique and special about driving?
And grotesque is quite unnecessary. War, slavery and famine are grotesque.
That's merely a thing you don't like.
If you walked into a Police Station tomorrow, and in front of other Police officers and on CCTV you were to stab a Police officer, and you were arrested and sent to jail, would it be your fault that you're in jail, or the court/arresting officers fault that you were?
This is absolute genius
Possibly the greatest PB comment ever
*SALUTES*
But you have got me wondering about bumble bees.
https://twitter.com/serhey_hayday/status/1535180674654691328
On pigeons - yes of course you have seen the same one twice.
On couples arguing, I’ve been married 17 years and we rarely argue. It’s partly because we are not that argumentative. My wife’s sister is much more likely to blow her top, rage for a few minutes, then it’s all over. My wife tends to bottle it up inside.
Everyone’s different. Mostly works for us.
On swingback, every election is different. Some might hear similarities to others, as now could be either 1992 or 1997, but that’s just similarities, and it’s hard to say which of those two will be closest. It could be 2010 too.
And the sun is shining, her maj made it to and past the jubilee and I have cricket later. A good day.
Well,I say 'begin,' they probably started a bit earlier TBF.
But I've never personally heard of anyone who said that.
@Leon do you have any examples from your wider experience of these matters?