Penny Mordaunt: Now 2nd favourite for the CON leadership – politicalbetting.com
Penny Mordaunt: Now 2nd favourite for the CON leadership – politicalbetting.com
One of the big developments in the next CON leader betting that PB hasn’t really covered has been the rise and rise of ex-Royal Navy reservist Penny Mordaunt. She’s now the 13% second favourite and appears highly credible.
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She needs to write some op eds and deliver some speeches.
100,000. Possibly a lot more
Why? Because the intersectional suffering of British Muslims (brown, marginalised, immigrant, poor) was deemed more important, and worthy of protection than “slutty white British girls from difficult backgrounds” who did not count in the hierarchy, and who had no one to protect them, Whereas these rapists had an entire industry of lawyers and diversity officers and the rest pushing their cause, and thereby cowing councillors and police into silence
That’s what Woke does. If your intersectional oppression is deemed more important, tens of thousands of kids get raped
I suspect the same must be true of a majority of general election voters. Her ascent would have rather a bit of “arsene who?” about it.
Don’t let that stop you bettors!
Not necessarily a disadvantage, mind.
I maintain though. The next leader will have to sketch out some kind of plan.
The rest? Not really.
Hardly thinking quickly on her feet; more of a glance at her true feelings.
The problem is simply that she’s a bit thick.
She’d be a good party chairman or something.
Is it Brexit they want to know?
Do you ever stop and look at yourself?
£15 an hour minimum wage.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/08/tackle-cost-living-crisis-raise-minimum-wage-15-pounds-hour?CMP=fb_cif
Certainly *this* Brexit. Others were available.
Is Nadine still editing the BBC?
However banging on about men in womens toilets when people cannot afford to put the heating on is not going to be a winner at the next GE.
The Council’s culture is unhealthy: bullying, sexism, suppression and misplaced
‘political correctness’ have cemented its failures. The Council is currently incapable
of tackling its weaknesses, without a sustained intervention.
The issue of race is contentious, with staff and
Members lacking the confidence to tackle difficult issues for fear of being seen as
racist or upsetting community cohesion. By failing to take action against the
Pakistani heritage male perpetrators of CSE in the borough, the Council has
inadvertently fuelled the far right and allowed racial tensions to grow. It has done a
great disservice to the Pakistani heritage community and the good people of
Rotherham as a result.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/401125/46966_Report_of_Inspection_of_Rotherham_WEB.pdf
Not a pretty prospect.
Enjoy.
It's rubbish for the country (we are going to be poorer as a result, and that's only a downside), but the political price for showing leadership not followership would be massive. And like it or not, if you lose elections, you don't get to do anything.
Anyone agree? Putting yourselves in their shoes, once Boris loses the general election is time for Fresh face to take over, Penny and many others may now be thinking. Last Monday’s VONC was a key moment in deciding the Tory leader igoing into next general election, leaving likes of Penny now preparing for a probable post election contest?
Q2. Which of the following are important or not important when considering how you will vote in the
Wakefield by-election?
"Beergate" allegations over Keir Starmer drinking a beer in a constituency office:
61% not important
28% not important
https://www.survation.com/labour-set-to-win-in-wakefield-by-election/
Big G tried his best
The site is probably slowly trending from centre-right to centre-left reflecting the gradual repellence of the more educated from the neo-populist right.
When anyone asks, like a bewildered old crone, what Woke is, and Why it Matters, point them to Rotherham
The author is a member of the Campaign Group and a backbencher. I stand to be corrected by the course of events, but I doubt that Rachel Reeves will repeat McDonnell's trick of stuffing the next Labour manifesto with a trillion squillion quid of unfunded spending commitments.
On the general topic of how to make sure that lower paid and unemployed people don't starve or freeze to death, making sure that employers don't get away with poverty pay has its place, but zero hours contracts are more likely to be in the crosshairs of the next Labour-led administration than massive hikes in the minimum wage. More broadly, the most effective way to bolster rock-bottom incomes is to throw away the imported American attitude towards "welfare" claimants and have a return to a more generous rate of social security provision. Granted this is traditionally considered a hard sell for just about managing, small-c conservative voters who still buy into the schtick about working yourself into the ground for a pittance whilst resenting the "undeserving poor," but a couple of years of 10% inflation (meaning that they themselves are no longer able to manage) might help to change some minds.
The strategy is to not come bottom in that or any previous round by ensuring that someone else is less popular than you.
It's a classic case of not having to run faster than the bear, just faster than at least one other person in the woods.
If there are two candidates less unpopular than Hunt then he can't make it, except by luck. (The votes disproportionately go to one of the less unpopular ones not the other.)
The MPs may have it in mind to carefully choose two non lunatics as the final two, even if they have to hold their noses, because if there is just one lunatic in the final two obvs the membership will choose that person. This gives Hunt a chance.
However if MPs had that sort of strategic sense they would have chucked Boris out this week, as they all know that 54 letters mean his position can't be recovered but they decided to prolong the agony for themselves (and us). So don't bank on it. They really are that useless.
I am on Hunt at 12/1. That's about right I think. It does require an outbreak of sanity. Not likely. Not impossible
My feeling is she was ahead of the game
PB.com would be you, @Roger @Nigel_Foremain and @Heathener - and your ilk - who do not have a single interesting or amusing thought to share between you, from one year to the next. It would be an old people’s home. The tinkle of spoons on saucers would predominate. All else would be silence. And darkness
Their shades are still around in the form of ex moderate MPs now in the HoL.
Now, as a wise man once said, the times they are a-changin'. I'm not convinced the next political direction has been set - it won't be re-hashed Blairism but may be a more environmentally based social democracy or liberalism (the success of Golob in Slovenia and to an extent the strong vote for NUPES in France currently both suggest centre-right populism has run its course).
I literally don't know where the LDs for example are going to position for the next GE - Davey has publicly called for a cut in VAT.
I hear Reddit is a gas
This is how they look at it
Single person working 40 hours per week on min wage takes home roughly 17k a year
single person on uc gets uc+council tax rebate+housing benefit+free prescriptions and in the south east where I am just the first 3 = 277+650+120 a month for a take home of 12564.
So the way they look at it is I am slogging my guts out 40 hours a week all year and it equates to about an extra 80 a week or to put it another way I earn 2£ an hour in reality
And have you apologised to @HYUFD over your allegation he is paid to post here ?
My LibDem friends are nearly all simply focused on winning, and vaguely think that getting rid of the Tories and establishing sensible moderate rule is all that's needed - worry about the details later. There are plenty of Labour people like that too, but also quite a lot like me who want to win but want to have a concrete sense of direction. That's not a huge division, which is why tactical voting is so prevalent, and it's that as much as the Government's real or perceived failings that will probably see the Tories out next time.
Curiously, I don't think most of the Tories will mind all that much. Johnson himself sees it pretty much as a game - he loves winning, but recognises that sometimes you lose, oh well. Many Conservatives recognise that the Government has lost any identifiable form or direction and would quite like a spell in opposition to sort themselves out. Very few really feel a Starmer government dependent on Libdem votes is a very scary thought.
Stagflation, as coined by McLeod, was slow growth high inflation. But because the only experience we've had of that was rising and high unemployment, that became part of the definition.
I detect this fallacy in another area. Experience of Labour replacing the Tories in government, if you are under 65? n=1. Therefore. Labour needs to be 20 points ahead to win.
Folk say "This is nothing like 1997!"
Thatcher wasn't. Cameron wasn't. But Blair was, and often more. But Blair is a huge outlier. Nobody has ever had leads of such magnitude over a sustained period.
Folk make the mistake of thinking the next time will be exactly like their only other experience of something. It rarely is. Don't believe me? Have a second child.
A former Wokist who has seen the error of his ways perhaps?
These are just predictions not actual measures.
This year the UK will have the fastest growth in the G7 so 'worst performance' is frankly bollocks.
Next year we are predicted to have the worst performance in the G7. So if that comes true then they will have a point. Until the it is nothing more than a prediction and, as the BBC says, there are a huge number of variables that could change it quite considerably.
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/v7rq5e/i_made_a_map_of_the_caucus_breakdown_of_the_us/
Thing that strikes me from this very interesting map, is the geographical diversity of all the groupings, at least in terms of being spread across the landscape and NOT clumped in just one section. More cohesion in terms of demography including urban & suburban, exurban & rural.
So I think there will be another challenge - at least one more - next summer.
Is this all to be paid for with another thirty trillion quid in borrowing, or are we going back to austerity - in which case, what is the Government going to stop paying for this time?
I'd rather guessed that would have been your feeling.
Borrow money for spending and cut taxes particularly vat to fight slump in growth.
By 2023 Q2 things might start to improve. But until then we all need to buckle down and brace ourselves. A government with a sense of direction and a sense of priorities would help but only at the edges. The biggest problem we have are fuel prices because the delivery costs drive the cost of everything else. Rishi took 5p off duty, it turned out to be less than a week's increase. That shows how futile the government's efforts are in the face of the tsunami. Brace, brace and think of the most vulnerable.