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The Wednesday afternoon open thread – politicalbetting.com
The Wednesday afternoon open thread – politicalbetting.com
I’m travelling today so not much time for me write a new piece.
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The Wednesday afternoon open thread – politicalbetting.com
I’m travelling today so not much time for me write a new piece.
Comments
Its always Brexit.
I don't like the cliche, "well, its a theory" (there are many others that I will use with relish) but it does cover the situation. What I think we need to do is look for evidence in support of that theory, like the many occasions when SKS has used a rapier of wit to devastating effect. And I am kind of struggling.
We can’t rule out a very similar thing happening this time.
PS did anyone watch Wes Streetings car crash in commons today. I don’t rate him at all, he was so rubbish today. If Streeting takes over from Starmer this summer Labour definitely lose. Starmer’s the best option they have from that front bench.
(part 1)
Well, another year, another Eurovision! This article isn’t intended as a music review, but just an insight as to how Ukraine and the UK fought it out for the top spot on Saturday night May 14th. Obviously, with the war still raging in Ukraine, that country did garner sympathy votes, but their song “Stefania” by the Kaluch Orchestra was a strong entry, and, unusually, so was the UK entry, “Spaceman” by Sam Ryder. “Slomo” by Spain’s Chanel was also a bookie favourite.
I think most of you will agree, the overall quality of the 25 finalists was very high, the highest for several years. The voting is always, shall we say, “interesting”. Though in recent years, neighbours voting for neighbours has been tempered by having the votes being split evenly between television audiences and professional “juries” for each nation. For example, this year, the UK Jury comprised Nicki Chapman, Tom Aspaul, Michelle Gayle, Aisha Jawando and Ross Gautreau.
The Jury votes were actually cast on Friday 13th during a dress rehearsal for Saturday’s show. The Jury votes account for 50% of the votes, and the audience tele-voting for the other 50%, phoning in live after the last country’s performance on Saturday. Rank order is straightforward, the top country in each nation’s vote preference gets 12 points, second-place gets 10 points, then 8 points for third, and then 7 points down to 1 for positions fourth to tenth.
The Jury vote
The UK got no less than eight 12-points from the national Juries, the joint highest with Spain. The following lovely, gorgeous countries' Juries gave us 12 points:
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Czechia
France
Georgia
Germany
Ukraine
Wait, I hear you cry! France AND Germany gave us 12 points? Surely not! But it’s true – they did! Although they didn’t qualify for the final, the Irish did at least give us 8 points.
Our Jury gave our 12 points to Sweden (but the Swedes gave us only 8 points!). However, the UK jury didn’t give Ukraine anything! Naughty! On the other hand, the following four reprobate countries gave the UK nul points in the Jury vote:
Greece
Armenia
Croatia
Australia
Australia? Don't you mean Austria, Sunil? Surely? No, it's not a typo. The Aussies really didn't give us any Jury points!
At any rate, we Brits were in pole position at the conclusion of the Jury vote declaration, with 283 points. Sweden got 258 points, and Spain 231. Ukraine, by contrast, only had 192 points, with 12 points from the Juries from only Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Poland. The Ukrainians actually got nul points from the following:
Austria
Bulgaria
Estonia
Finland
Greece
Italy
Malta
Netherlands
North Macedonia
Serbia
Spain
Sweden
UK
(part 2 to follow)
The Tele-vote
However, in terms of the audience tele-vote, only the delightful Malta gave the UK 12 points. The Irish gave us only 6 points. Our audience gave Ukraine 12 points (Ukraine gave us only 7 points, as did the Aussies!).
The UK tele-vote total of 183 points across 39 countries meant only an average of 4.7 points per country. The following five reprobate countries gave the UK nul points in the tele-vote:
Croatia
Montenegro
North Macedonia
Serbia
Slovenia
Croatia, hang your head in shame! Giving us nul points in BOTH votes!
Ukraine got 12 points from all countries' tele-votes apart from:
Albania (10)
Armenia (10)
Croatia (10)
Greece (10)
Montenegro (10)
Romania (10)
Slovenia (10)
Switzerland (10)
North Macedonia (8)
Malta (8)
Serbia (7)
Naughty Serbia!
UKR first, UK second
Anyway, with a whopping 439 audience points to add to their 192 Jury points, Ukraine easily came top with 631 total points, their third victory since they first entered the contest in 2003, the other triumphs being 2004 and 2016. The UK came a very strong second, with 466 points. It was our best placing since 1998, though we did win for the fifth and last time the previous year (1997).
The Top 5 were:
Ukraine 631
UK 466
Spain 459
Sweden 438
Serbia 312
Can the UK go one better and get a sixth victory next year? Well, we'll just have to wait and see!
Full data tables can be found on Wikipedia at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2022
The other half wasn’t happy, she likes it a bit tidy whilst I’m happy to live in the woods with herd of pigs. So I will be back in good books again, so if i’m not posting much this evening I’ll leave you with this 😉
- those who get caught in the weeds vs those who look at the big picture
- those who find reasons why not to vs those who find reasons to justify
Strikes me that SKS is a weeds why not, whereas I'd want a big picture, justify to inspire a political movement.
Your thoughts?
Homing in on the HP Envy 14 as a replacement. The "14" refers to screen size.
Sir Keir’s PMQs performance today was less of an own goal, more like a player running up to take a penalty and then missing the ball. There weren’t very high expectations for the Labour leader going into the session this lunchtime, just a case of pouring salt in the wounds opened by Tory MPs on Monday, and yet he decided to do a very low energy set of questions on health funding. Looking down the timeline, it looks like LOTO may have to accept a misstep today…
Times’ Henry Zeffman: “Not sure Labour MPs will think Starmer’s showing at PMQs quite met the level of the PM’s peril”
Mail’s David Wilcock: “‘This line of attack is not working,’ Boris Johnson tells Keir Starmer at #PMQs – and he may have a point.”
Daily Mail’s Henry Deedes: “This should be the #pmqs of the year. Starmer’s moment. And he’s already killed it. The chamber now devoid of atmosphere.”
Telegraph’s Christopher Hope: “Keir Starmer is missing his open goal”
CityAM’s Stefan Boscia: “Half way through and Keir is missing an open goal here”
TalkTV’s Kate McCann: “Labour benches are silent, many not even looking at their leader as he speaks. Many dislike PMQs pantomime, but I’m not sure this Labour approach works”
JOE Politics’ Oli Dugmore:“Is Keir just really bad at politics? Is this some kind of master stroke I don’t understand? Feels like Boris is wiping the floor with him today”
New Statesman’s Ben Walker: “This isn’t 4D chess, this is just ineffective.”
The i’s Paul Waugh: “His troops, rebels and loyalists alike, were always going to be behind @BorisJohnson today but he is enjoying himself at #PMQs. Clearly delighted at Starmer’s failure to land blows and dismissive of Blackford.”
Adam Boulton: “Starmer’s inability to ad lib, reply to taunts or deviate from his pre-cooked plan not helping him.”
Times Radio’s Matt Chorley: “I genuinely think this is one of the worst PMQs Starmer has had… Hopeless.”
It is better for Labour if Boris stays in office. I can therefore see Starmer deciding not to try REALLY hard, and just give his normal uninspiring performance. Boris takes no more damage. Job done
NOT an accident. Perhaps terror, perhaps murder?
Many confusing details. And still they say he is 29, when he looks 39 or even 49
“Berlin police confirmed they had arrested a 29-year-old German-Armenian man living in Berlin.
BILD reports that the man, named only as Gor H, left a confession letter in the car.”
https://twitter.com/dfallamhain/status/1534537334078812160?s=21&t=JQPBplDtRKIsungNMSGVHg
1) Is this correct
2) If correct, what reason is there for Tory MPs to prolong their (and our) agony for months, knowing the Boris cause is hopeless -'if were done when tis done' etc
3) Is there a cunning plan and if so what.
-10% GDP is bloody awful.
By that I mean the issue with EU Freedom of Movement was it required that EU citizens have the full rights of UK citizens (ie to move without work, full access to benefits from day 1 etc). If EFTA is just “freedom of movement” in the sense of no visa required then that shouldn’t be an issue at all
-10% GDP is bloody awful.
Linked graph;
We could easily solve this problem and join EFTA tomorrow (if we are content to follow most EU single market rules when selling to the EU) if we made our own welfare system contributory. But we are too lame to do that
The weird thing about SKS is that he was DPP. He ought to have developed some skills or abilities to seize the moment but, to me, he comes very firmly in the former camp. He's clever and methodical but dull. Worthy but boring. It's not a skill set for a successful politician or a good campaigner. If I was a Labour supporter it would trouble me more than a bit.
Working on the basis that the Tories are obsessed with not so much hitting the self-destruct button but battering it out of existence may well work. But it might not.
Aha - so this is what "levelling up" means!
Primary (e)sim in my phone is from EE and the second sim is o2.
2) There isn't a reason because there is no organised opposition in the Tory Party. Nor any successor to coalesce around.
3) See above
Viewers will have noticed that some countries had - ahem - communication problems when giving their results on the night so the hosts just stated them. This was pretence.
https://eurovisionworld.com/esc/eurovision-2022-votes-from-six-national-juries-removed
OTOH you think he's so tarnished that surely they'll swap him out. OTOH there's no clear mechanism now the conf vote has gone. The cabinet could do it if there were people of strength and integrity there. Fatal snag with this? There aren't because those 2 qualities rule you out of a Boris Johnson cabinet.
You don't win trials with great starts but you can lose with them bad openings.
He's got those idiotic comments from Dorries to place Boris Johnson in awkward position.
I expect a full throated defence from Hunt soon (plus Dave and George) which leads to more blue on blue which is great for SKS.
You know those comments will be used heavily during the next GE campaign.
In spite of which Brum can't recruit enough staff for the Commonwealth Games and are negotiating with the army for a couple of spare regiments to plug the gaps.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-61721577
https://www.techradar.com/uk/reviews/hp-envy-14-eb0000na
Jeez.
And let's not forget what Corbyn did to Theresa during the campaign in 2017. Another week and he might have won.
I really think that Boris imagines he can boom his way to a win, particularly against a nonentity. Sheer force of personality and energy. He loves getting out of scrapes, and is pretty good at it. Who's to gainsay him?
1: the government drifts along, mostly concentrating on keeping Boris in office; it does manage to get some things done, but finds it hard to pass anything significant and therefore controversial. On the other hand no major event (blunder, sudden opinion poll plummet) or rise of a clear alternative leader ever happens, so Boris is able to drift along until 2024, when he loses the election.
2. drift, etc, but there *is* some trigger -- an event, an alternative leader that opposition coalescese around, or perhaps 6 months of drift come to seem unbearable. Then Boris is out. For Boris to be kicked out there must be some reason for 50 or so MPs who voted for him today to change their minds and believe that there is some better alternative.
3. Events, but the other way around -- maybe Starmer gets that FPN, or Russia suffers a massive setback in Ukraine and oil prices fall again. Maybe partygate finally gets pushed out of voters' minds by something else.
There's no cunning plan -- it's just 359 individual MPs with their own takes on future events, their own personal ambitions, and so on.
But more likely - much more likely, to my mind - is that his continued presence makes people angrier and angrier. There is, after all, no such rage as love to hatred turned. The voters want him gone. Yet he squats there. The charm no longer works. He’s like a dinner guest who earlier in the evening told brilliant jokes, albeit bawdy, but is now boorishly drunk at the table at midnight and won’t fuck off despite all the hints
That can make a person quite furious
Big broad generalities but those areas that make things are generally finding it harder than service industries to recover, often because the supply chain is still shot. Computer chips being a major example.
We make stuff, supply chains are a hair raising experience at the moment. Both with cost and delivery times. Service led business doesn't have this to worry about.
Can't think of any other reason why areas with a large number of exporters might be struggling right now.
"Finally I mentioned three potential barriers to such a deal. The third of course is EFTA itself which is why I hope someone from the Leave campaign is already in discussions with Kristinn Árnason, the current General Secretary to discuss the attitude of the four current EFTA members to the possible arrival of a fifth member in the near future."
We have wasted 6 years on this when a sensible Government, supported by a sensible opposition, would have been laying the groundwork for a long term sustainable relationship with the rest of Europe instead of looking at the issue for pure short term gain and pandering to the fanatics on both sides.
As an aside, the then Icelandic Government did say they would welcome us in EFTA after the referendum. But they are only one of 4 members.
Man with weapon detained near Brett Kavanaugh's home. He allegedly told police he wanted to kill the Supreme Court justice.
++++
The graphic doesn’t seem right. The UK economy as a whole, we are told, is now larger than it was pre-pandemic
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-finally-bigger-than-before-pandemic-november-2022-01-14/
And yet this FT graphic says 80% of the country is, economically, still much reduced
I know London predominates economically, but to this extent? Really?
The graphic doesn’t seem right. The UK economy as a whole, we are told, is now larger than it was pre-pandemic
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-finally-bigger-than-before-pandemic-november-2022-01-14/
And yet this FT graphic says 80% of the country is, economically, still much reduced
I know London predominates economically, but to this extent? Really?
+++++++
Yes, I was looking for a date, thinking it might have reflected the position at the beginning of the year rather than now.
There are two separate but linked organisations connected to the EU.
EFTA consists of 4 members which are not members of the EU. 3 of those members are also members of the EEA which is the EU/EFTA Agreement. (Switzerland is not). EU freedom of movement does not apply to EFTA members as such. However it does apply to EEA members as they are part of the Single Market so Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are all covered by the EU FoM rules as they are part of the EEA. Weirdly because of its size Liechtenstein has some exemptions from the FoM rules as they are too small and there is a fear they would be overwhelmed.
So joining EFTA does not confer EU FoM. But it also does not put us in the Single Market. For that we would need to join the EEA via EFTA and would therefore be covered by FoM.
I hope that is clear as mud
Edit: Of course it is all further complicated by both Schengen and the fact that Switzerland has separate treaties with the EU as a non EEA member of EFTA.
I wonder if Congress would have started taking gun laws seriously, if the GOP start finding their recently gained "for life" Justices don't have as long a life expectancy as they thought?
The man, described as being in his mid-20s, was found to be carrying at least one weapon and burglary tools, these people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation. Police were apparently notified that the person might pose a threat to the justice, but it was not immediately clear who provided the initial tip, these people said. The man apparently did not make it onto Kavanaugh’s property in Montgomery County but was stopped on a nearby street, these people said.
Two people familiar with the investigation said the initial evidence indicates that the man was angry about the leaked draft of an opinion by the Supreme Court signaling that the court is preparing to overturn Roe. v. Wade, the 49-year-old decision that guaranteed the constitutional right to have an abortion. He was also angry over a recent spate of mass shootings, these people said.
The man was arrested at about 1:50 a.m. today, Supreme Court spokeswoman Patricia McCabe said in a statement.
“The man was armed and made threats against Justice Kavanaugh,” McCabe said. “He was transported to Montgomery County Police 2nd District.”
The story is developing and will be updated.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/06/08/kavanaugh-threat-arrest-justice/
https://frame.work/gb/en
It might be a problem for the other EFTA states (admitting a very large, relatively poor neighbour), who don't want their countries overrun by Brits looking for higher wages... but as all the EFTA countries had FoM with the UK historically, I think they'd be able to get over it.
I really don't see the attraction of leaving our former status in favour of the EEA as it would prevent us having different sectoral policies and limit our ability to champion new alliances or new forms of cooperation.
Personal one I went cheaper but similar specs and have had more problems (might just be bad luck).
I'm still getting a k_mode_excepted error and blue screen of death every time I don't shut it down and just close the lid. Have tried the top 3 internet solutions to no avail, which is generally my limit before I give up, so need to find someone who knows what they are doing.
I could check, I suppose, but I'd rather not.
It’s up to Tories to remove Boris, not Starmer. Boris is Opposition parties prize asset at ballot box now. But opposition still need to paint picture of Tory failure, not Boris failure in case Boris goes, the change voters need to want from Labour perspective, is change of government not change of Tory leader.
Labours campaigning this summer will quite rightly be about years of Tory failure on domestic policy, not Boris failure. Labour won’t mention partygate or Boris all summer now, but they will talk about conditions in hospitals, waiting lists, ambulance response times, crime up, less doctors, etc.
The 148 and friends in media are just going to have to get used to it 😁
She resigned as lead non exec after talk with Perm Sec.
Sources say Truss believed comments made job "untenable".
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/18820731/defiant-boris-johnson-cheered-by-tory-mps/ https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1534549201979428864/photo/1
ANYWAY it is a criminal indictment of our politics that we, as a nation, did not sit down, and have not sat down, and discussed all these options, from the hardest Brexit to EEA/EFTA
We’re like someone who got divorced but paid no heed to our own situation after the divorce and so we’ve ended up sleeping in the car. All sides are to blame for this,. The Hard Brexiteers who told lies because they worried the voters would say Remain if they thought about it, the Remainers who tried to overturn the referendum when they could have been doing exactly THIS: arguing passionately for EFTA/EEA (and surely winning the day), and of course all the lying governments that denied us prior plebiscites on the EU
But mistakes can be rectified. We need a national conversation now as to what we do. Boris and Starmer both need to go, before we can do this
From the meaningful votes the "compromises" that significant numbers of Tories backed were No Deal, and the option nicknamed 'managed no deal'.
In the end we got the compromise of a new deal, which Parliament was able to accept, so all's well that ends well.
He's proposing we join EFTA, but only EFTA.
I did. Hated my Mac
And the only way to keep everyone happy was to repatriate powers over everything. That's the logic of the government's position, and why it's not surprising we ended up passing through here and now.
It has problems that we haven't solved in terms of the resulting faff at borders, but that's another story.
The reality of island of Ireland politics + the Brexit vote is why both sides should make this a special case.
The Brexit vote swung the way it did because of FoM. Neither side campaigned in Ref2016 on the basis that exiting the EU was impossible because of Ireland - merely that it was a problem to resolve. Events have shown it's insoluble both practically and politically.
Therefore both sides should give way. The UK should give way on SM membership (via EEA or Swiss arrangement) and, uniquely, the EU should give way on FoM.
Peace in Ireland matters more than either of these things.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3961955/#Comment_3961955