Categories
The front pages on the confidence vote – politicalbetting.com
The front pages on the confidence vote – politicalbetting.com
0
This discussion has been closed.
The front pages on the confidence vote – politicalbetting.com
Comments
Is there anyone disloyal? Well, Priti Patel said nothing but on the other hand she is not suspected of planning her own leadership bid or of plotting against Big Dog.
Priti Patel is also piloting the National Security Bill through Parliament, so this would not be a good time to move her. The bill aims to update our national security legislation in order to offend pinko commies like David Davis by empowering Boris to direct the assassination of troublesome priests. No, Priti is safe for the time being.
Rishi has already been neutered, although paradoxically, Boris probably weakened himself in the process. Rishi is probably safe too.
Which brings us to the fourth Great Office of State. There is no special reason for keeping Liz Truss; she has done nothing of note; she clearly does covet the top job. On the other hand, Boris might feel that just as in his own case, now is not the time. We would almost be in Foreign Secretary of the Month territory with yet another change.
So I'm not anticipating any immediate change to the Court of King Boris.
And I could look very silly by tea time!
Cakeism.
Excellent “The rest is history” podcast episode on “how prime ministers fall”
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-rest-is-history/id1537788786
Or
https://play.acast.com/s/the-rest-is-history-podcast
Well worth a listen, imo.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971725951672322
rcs1000 said: Luckyguy1983 said: bondegezou said:Does anyone think that re-litigating the NIP is going to win the Tories crucial votes in the by-elections? Boris’s great promise was to get Brexit done. Undoing your own Brexit plan doesn’t make your (supposed) big achievement look good!
Depends if it eases the situation.
My view is that Article 16 is a crucial weapon for holding the EU's feet to the fire to ensure that the Smart Border / Trusted Trader programme is delivered on a reasonable time horizon.
One should therefore have a list of deliverables, and a list of ways the EU has failed to meet its obligations, and should use Article 16 to kick off the talks, the consequence of which (if the EU doesn't get a move on) should be the passing of legislation that undoes the requirement of checks between the UK and Northern Ireland.
Passing a law without at least trying the mechanisms in the Northern Ireland protocol, to my mind, contravenes both the letter and the spirit of the treaty. And would, I suspect, be self defeating because the EU would respond with a set of targeted tariffs on British goods. And we'd escalate, and then before we know it, we've added another drag to the economy to add to the cost of living crisis, over an issue where it's far from clear that we are abiding by the treaty we signed.
This - 100% agree. But is the govt prepared to do the work,
Its really paradoxical to see someone calling for the Johnson govt to identify ways that the "EU has failed to meet its obligations" re BREXIT and NI. After the confessed law breaking, promises about `oven-ready' deals, sucking up to the DUP in 2017-9 it almost sounds tongue in cheek. It seems to me the Johnson government needs to meet its obligations in the first instance.
... big snip ...
Patient satisfaction with GP services is at a record low, mainly driven by complaints about access.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/almost-half-of-family-doctors-plan-to-retire-by-60-poll-shows-bsd6593sq (£££)
It is a vicious circle. High pressure on GPs makes them go part-time or retire, which increases pressure on those left behind.
The government's current argument against the Protocol seems to be that the EU is adhering to its provisions too rigidly. Beyond the swivel-eyed worlds of Unionism and Brexitism that's not a massively convincing one.
It's pretty clear now that the deal was signed on the UK side in bad faith as a means to get Johnson through an immediate crisis and to enable him to paint an entirely false prospectus to voters in 2019. That seems to be Lord Frost's position, for example.
Given how low levels of trust in Johnson are now, it's going to be very tough to carry the electorate with him in any kind of action that risks amplifying the cost of living crisis - especially when a majority of the people in Northern Ireland do not want to see it revoked.
Really! Chaos would be an improvement.
Johnson does not have the political capital he needs - either inside the Conservative party or among the voters - to successfully pursue any kind of policy that involves the risk of trade sanctions being inflicted on the UK. His lies are catching up with him.
He could replace ambitious Cabinet colleagues with salt of the earth 2019 RedWallers. That would raise their profile and rid himself of the enemy within.
Quite A Lot Of Politicians Are Mediocre
Yes, that’s a headline for the ages. Hold the front page
The problem with Johnson's approach of lying about the NI protocol, then trying to dump it is that the government loses all credibility to negotiate.
Lying to Parliament over partygate is an internal matter to Britain, but lying in international negotiations does permanent and lasting damage to our credibility as a trustworthy nation.
It’s not fully his fault but Boris is the living embodiment of Brexit and Covid. Every time you see his face, your brain instinctively goes back to those two things. Ugh.
They are not the only politicians too thick to realise this of course. Ed Davey and Kier Starmer suffer from the same brain malfunction, with their campaign literature and public statements still variously dominated by “we opposed Brexit” and partygate.
Sod off the whole miserable lot of you. We all need to move on.
** Tory rebel MP tells me resignations from the Government are now expected tomorrow ** #Toryleadership
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dead-man-walking-times-commentators-give-their-verdicts-boris-johnson-confidence-vote-0f59md3bt
The cabinet continue to debase themselves
And pushing back against idea of retribution against the rebels “if you do that you dig two graves - one for yourself”
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1534051254963404800
Corbyn was a non-entity calamitously promoted to entity by idiot Labour MPs then party members, who thereby allowed Corbz to parasitise the party and almost turn it into a vile crypto-Marxist “movement” to suit his own horrible opinions
Boris J was a highly successful journalist (as editor of the Speccie) who was twice elected mayor of London, who then became a Cabinet Minister, won the Brexit referendum - and so, in time, he became British prime minister, with an unexpectedly huge majority. It’s quite a list of significant achievements
The ONLY parallel is that Boris is leading the Tories to a grievous, tarnishing defeat, if he stays on, just as Corbyn did to Labour.
Both are surrounded by mediocrities yes, but that’s true of every party leader in the country, most of the time. I don’t see dazzling talent around Starmer, and Starmer himself is fairly mediocre
Boris has to go, tho. I suspect he will go soon
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1534051521964429313
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-mps-fear-game-is-up-public-boris-johnson-leadership-vote-1671558
If, say, Sunak, Gove and Javid went, would he survive that? I doubt it
I also severely doubt that they have the cullions to do it; and yet, I also severely doubt that Boris can carry on much longer. Something unexpected has to happen to break the logjam
Excoriating from @WilliamJHague. A very difficult read for all Tory MPs.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-should-look-for-an-honourable-exit-7fkgkl2rq?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1654549602
The proposal was always that it would be a temporary measure in place until the details of the trusted trader scheme were agreed.
The EU is frustrating the treaty which (under contract law at least) is akin to a breach
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/06/world/europe/boris-johnson-confidence-vote.html
“The prime minister survived a no-confidence vote, but has been politically wounded by the same baffling mix of strengths and foibles that propelled his rise: rare political intuition, and breathtaking personal recklessness”
That’s fair and astute. I suspect the NYT is better at doing this because their analysis is devoid of the intense Brexit angst that warps every British opinion of Boris (for or against).
126 fines and 148 votes of no confidence later, the PM is still struggling to move on from it. https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1468285179919749120
Abolish the GP and replace with something better.
Just as we have to accept Brexit and deal with the damage, so we have to do the same with the Protocol.
Firstly it doesn’t draw a line under partygate, wallpaper, Owen Paterson etc - these issues still anger the voters and can destroy the Tories. All these things are because of Boris and the way he thinks, acts and doesn’t act. To think that the public will also think “ok, fair do’s, let’s look at the sunny future only” is nuts. It’s insulting to the electorate but fully what you expect from Boris - he frankly just does not give a shit about people only himself. He might want a line drawn under it for selfish interest but it’s not going to happen.
For him to say the party should come together when we know he’s a vindictive bastard and his “loyalists” are briefing about revenge again shows they just don’t get it.
Listening to the boorish cheering at the announcement of the result made me just envisage a group of twats treating the future of the country like the rugby club end of season awards where their captain gets player of the year award from the sponsors who also happen to be owned by his father in law.
I’m a socially Liberal and fiscally conservative Tory. I appreciate that some traditional Tory ideas of tax and spend have been blown apart by necessity from Covid and Ukraine but that wouldn’t be a problem if the man at the top had a plan, a route through this and an end goal but he doesn’t - he just throws out some buzz ideas and hopes they somehow happen - he’s too lazy and arrogant to do the hard dirty work.
I honestly admit that when Boris took over I really hoped he would be a PM who whilst being shallow and “populist” in a loose sense would surround himself by active bright people who would do all the heavy lifting and he would be chairman of the board and walk away with the big bonuses on others work but he’s the worst combination - lazy, arrogant, insecure, vindictive and so he cannot let good people do the work in case it shows up his lack of depth and poses a threat to him as world king.
Maybe that’s why I was so angry they didn’t dump him - a guy who fooled me into thinking he was socially liberal and fiscally conservative is just nothing, just a blob of nothing whose sole function is to live and procreate without improving anything.
I am absolutely certain that within a couple of months after he’s tried all the boosterism bullshit and made stupid decisions purely from an eye on politics something else will happen that shows him to be totally unsuitable as a person to be PM and we will go through this dance again and will hear the same lines “it’s not the time”, “it’s people trying to derail Brexit”, “I’m a winner” and it’s on all the Tories who didn’t eject him last night.
A senior Johnson critic sums up the mood post-vote among rebels: ‘It’s the worst of all worlds. Slow death as we slide under the waves.’
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1534056397478014977
https://twitter.com/LouisDegenhardt/status/1534055892282490880
Johnson needs to stick to his word on his Oven Ready Deal. Unilateral ignoring of what is inconvenient to him is what got him into his mess, not what will get him out of it.
Agree a moratorium on standards - we float alongside the EU as we are now. Agree a customs arrangement on the back of that floating and we're there. Won't be membership of the single market and customs union, but will be analogues of those.
The problem is that the EU see no need to negotiate anything with Boris Johnson. So there won't be a solution whilst he remains in office.
Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, the chief executive of Business for Scotland, told an audience at a #ProgresstoYes conference that he pushed for senior SNP figures to distance themselves from comments made by Ian Blackford.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c493c690-e5db-11ec-aa87-2eea7c6e5b01
If the UK wants a Trusted Trader scheme, it needs to get agreement from the other party for it. The EU has make several suggestions on this following engagement with stakeholders in Northern Ireland, but the UK has refused to work with the EU on these. For its part, UKG had had no similar engagement with NI stakeholders.
This is not to say the Protocol can't be improved, but it can only be done in agreement, where the status quo is already locked down.
When you are both absolutely aligned and will remain so by default, it makes an agreement recognising this reality much easier than if both sides were sabre rattling beforehand. This government have given up their positions on customs and divergence. The only thing that matters is free movement and a fudge can be found there as well in exchange for "spiteful" EU nations like Spain abandoning the 3rd country restrictions on British economic migrants which we demanded.
There are a lot of people like you in politics, especially (but not exclusively) on the Left. As and when Labour gain power they will make their move. Starmer will come under pressure to yield to their desires, in some form (Single Market access to start with). Brexit will therefore vex us for many years to come
Drinkers who suffered the worst affects of alcoholism did not change their habits when Scotland's minimum pricing was introduced, a study has shown.
Public Health Scotland (PHS) reported minimum unit pricing (MUP) led to some people cutting back on food and energy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61710564
At least the outcomes were measured - unlike education, for example.
Even Dan Hannan has twigged. Some day, maybe, you will too.
Both Leon and Johnson probably voted remain, but post the vote both have realised that the culture war mileage outpaces the economic damage.
https://twitter.com/DrNishW/status/1532120348510109698?t=Nppm57j6YSsosU-wE_Z3_g&s=19
Why not read what I post, instead of imagining what you wanted me to post.
https://www.reuters.com/article/eu-commission-swiss-idUSZ8N21500X
There is a much larger discussion to be had about the UK's future economic direction.
But we have now wasted more than 6 years with all this Brexit nonsense when there were more pressing things to focus on.
History will not judge this period kindly
What a fantastic crop of people the Forza Boris party has to chose from.
I disagree that there are “very few ultras”. This is nonsense. About 10-20% of the country is passionately Remoaner, and wants to rejoin ASAFP. They tend to be active in politics and they tend to be on the Left (but you can find them anywhere). They will re-emerge as soon as the Tories fall. Watch this space
One of Boris's legacies will be a 30 minute queue every time we enter the EU...
Here are the problems with your straw man.
Boris won't negotiate. Is clueless about what he wants because he doesn't know what he has (his oven-ready deal)
The EU see no need to negotiate with a liar who is not long for this world
We *already have* full alignment on standards so there is nothing there to negotiate
The kind of "if you then I" negotiation the Swiss are stuck in is way beyond Boris. There are so many detail areas where we could have asked for access - touring musicians as an example - where the EU expected us to do so and we simply didn't bother because we didn't understand what we were doing.
So yes. Any agreement between two parties has penalties for default. I negotiate contracts for a living and have invoked said penalties on major supermarkets so I have no problem with sanctioning the counter party. Its just that we won't be doing that because we're shit.
For months now the government have flitted between "Trigger Article 16" and "scrap the protocol". Have they done either - despite repeated claims they are doing so within days? No - because they haven't a fucking clue what they are doing, what they want, what they have signed up to.
And you support *that*.
We are not going to rejoin the EU. We won't ask for it. They won't agree to it. What we need to do now is to negotiate free trade with our biggest market. Thats the only game in town.