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Punters give Biden just a 30% chance of being the WH2024 nominee – politicalbetting.com
Punters give Biden just a 30% chance of being the WH2024 nominee – politicalbetting.com
Although it is less than 2 years since the last White House Race the betting markets on who will be the parties’ nominees and who will win in 2024 are very active. The big question is whether the incumbent, Joe Biden who will be 80 shortly after November’s midterms, is going to run again. A problem for him is that once has said that he is standing aside he becomes a lame duck.
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Since then, we have been more likely to choose generals, and governors. That makes sense, too; as we became less and less isolationist, we needed men who could manage our enormous armed forces, and men who had that rare talent for managing large public bureaucracies. Vice presidents too, often get a shot, especially if the president they served was thought to be successful.
Oddly enough, none the four potential challengers Mike lists have the kind of experience once thought necessary to be a serious candidate in the US. Kamala Harris serving a president who is, fairly or unfairly, not thought to be a great success, nor was she in her time as California Attorney General. Pete Buttigeig was mayor of a medium-sized city. Elizabeth Warren has never held an executive position. Michelle Obama has never held a significant executive position.
This poor field is not because there are no successful governors in the Democratic Party, though the two most obvious, Cuomo of New York and Newsom of California, have disqualified themselves, in different ways. But that still leaves former governors such as Gina Raimondo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gina_Raimondo and John Hickenlooper: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hickenlooper
But, neither seem attractive to Democratic caucus goers and voters, nor to British bettors.
(Full disclosure: Were they to ask me -- they won't -- I would advise the Democrats to choose Hickenlooper. He has a science degree, he had a successful business career, and was successful as both mayor of Denver and governor of Colorado.)
What if - and hear me out - popular newspapers were not master manipulators of public opinion and were instead highly adept at understanding and tracking it?
https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/status/1525776457989074944
Ahead of a leadership review in the health service, analysis shows the number of officials has more than doubled in two years
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/05/15/report-nhs-reveals-astonishing-explosion-central-bureaucracy/ (£££)
Joe Biden has not become sharper during his two years as President. He's on the cusp of 80. He would be massacred in the debates. (He would - let us not forget - be 82 at the beginning of his second term. Can anyone seriously suggest that we should have a President that will be nearer 90 than 80 at the end of his term?
I would sell Biden, and be a modest buyer of Harris. Buttigieg is great, but transport secretary is not a high profile role. I would expect an elected representative or two to have a tilt. How about:
- Sherrod Brown of Ohio
- JB Pritzker of Illinois
- Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan
- Steve Sisolak of Nevada
- Bob Casey of Pennsylvania
- Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
or
- Jon Ossoff of Georgia
The listed names only add up to 68%, so there's plenty of room for other candidates. See the full list:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/30186572/multi-market?marketIds=1.178163685
I doubt he'll even think of running again.
The question here isn't what we thing should happen, it's what (health permitting) Joe Biden thinks should happen. OK, he could be challenged either from the left or from the competent centre, but primary voters generally get behind their president.
Biden wouldn't get a free run. He'd be primaried. And he'd be the guy with the Big Red X on his back. Can you imagine the impact of him being massacred by his own party on TV?
Biden would only run again if guaranteed a free run.
There will be no free run.
How is the average consumer expected to judge? Perhaps we were better off in the old days when you bought gas from the gas board and electricity from the electricity board. The market is skewed in favour of clued-up professionals who are underpinned by the state stepping in to organise bail-outs when over-aggressive trading goes pear-shaped.
Here is the result of my analysis.
Conclusions
De Santis has the best chance of winning IF nominated (66%).
Harris has the worst (36%).
Of the Democrats, Biden has the best chance IF nominated (50%).
Of the Republicans, it's De Santis (66%).
For the Democrats there's a 45% chance that none of the top three runners will be nominated.
For the Republicans it's a 27%.
There's a 32% chance that the next President will not be any of the top three runners of either party.
A non-violent protest of less than 100 people led to immediate Congressional legislation and more opinion articles and certain future references in American political debates than will a mass murder of 10 people.
https://mobile.twitter.com/peterwsinger/status/1525905348363681792
I ignored Scottish Power's attempt to coerce me into something similar and I'm paying half what they wanted.
#BREAKING Russian assets of France's Renault now state property: ministry
https://twitter.com/afp/status/1526078004950351872
Last I saw, after the April cap increase, he was suggesting a fix 25% above the current cap would be worth considering for those who wanted price certainty against future cap changes, but noting everything in this market is a gamble. Obviously, the futures markets have run for several weeks since then, so that advice could have changed substantially, so DYOR.
Tbh, not many of the fixes on offer we're meeting his value criteria back last month.
Also, and I don't want to push too hard, but be aware that often the best price fixes are only available for very short time spans, sometimes just a few days, in the current market, so DYOR as soon you are offered.
'Dad, what are you doing with my felt tip pens?'
'You'll see, son. You'll see'.
* other than a Veep, which may or may not be considered a cabinet post in theory)
I think Biden will step out of the race after the mid terms. He always looked like a single term President.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joe-biden-administration-approval-ratings-and-hypothetical-voting-intention-18-april-2022/
If Biden does not run again though I would suggest Buttigieg is the Democrats best hope of holding the White House as OGH suggests
Hopefully Amtrak Joe will restore things.
Have a good morning.
The economy looks as though it will be brutal for the midterms, but an end to the war in Ukraine, should it come soon enough, could see it improve rapidly, as the pandemic disruption in China will also be over (very probably).
Then it's down to how many of his marbles he still has...
30% looks a decent guess, I suppose.
Deluded on Biden's chances? Not at all, he is correct.
Inclined to agree that it's too early to judge on who the Presidential candidates will be. How near, for example, is Trump to arrest?.
At 'home,' is today that Northern Ireland looks over the edge towards a restart of the Troubles? Will the DUP refuse to accept the word of a Catholic PM?
Sadly too many people want to ride roughshod over one community and seem to wish to ignore and tell the DUP to go away, but under the GFA they can explicitly stop Stormont from sitting or a government from forming indefinitely.
The British government seems like it's willing to find a compromise to make the DUP happy, without riding roughshod over Sinn Fein, sadly they're the only ones who are. If the EU can't or won't compromise then the pre-agreed safeguarding article of the Protocol has to be invoked until a compromise is reached that all relevent stakeholders can agree to.
Though Catholicism wouldn't have much to do with it.
The question is therefore, will he?
I don't see anyone obvious who'd have a better chance in the General Election tbf.
And the DUP seem very easy to offend!
It's become an Article 16 of Faith. Those don't often end well there.
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1525145388243615744
My energy supplier ceased trading last June and was taken over by EDF who continued the green deal tariff until it ran out and on the 1st September they offered me a two year fix but at a substantial increased cost
I decided at the time energy prices were going to rise substantially and agreed the 2 year fix
It is the best decision I have made for a long time and to be fair EDF have been excellent
The key might be Dublin, and that when Washington and Brussels ask Dublin how the GFA is holding up, if Dublin is relaxed about life then there is no pressure on the EU to make concessions. And from Dublin's point of view, it is good that Brexit has increased North/South trade because Boris went back on his word and did impose ("over his dead body") a border down the Irish Sea.
https://twitter.com/Diana_Kuegler/status/1489998453971243013
The problem is that Joe Biden has to make the decision without knowing who the party would pick. I guess I'd rate it something like:
He retires before the primary and Harris becomes POTUS:
Kamala Harris: 85%
Left-wing challenger: 10%
Electable person: 5%
He stays on but announces he won't run again
Kamala Harris: 60%
Left-wing challenger: 20%
Electable person: 20%
Kamala Harris isn't a *terrible* candidate, and she might do better if she had Biden's team rather than her sister or whoever was running her primary campaign. But I think if you're Joe and you feel basically healthy, you feel duty-bound to stay on.
- the GFA should be protected
- The protocol is the best way forward
- It needs to operate as intended
- The EU is imposing its rules without a risk based approach or looking for solutions
- their proposals actually make things worse
- Equivalence is the core of any solution
Where he disagrees (I have some sympathy with his belief, but I don’t believe the EU will respond to “patient diplomacy”) is around the tactics of threatening use of article 16
In theory our system is a little insulated from this because prospective PMs are not chosen by their parties purely by the mass membership; but in practice MPs pick vote-winners anyway, it seems.
He's not Paul McCartney playing Glastonbury 80.
Ffs.
Benn also has the small advantage he didn't lie repeatedly to the NI electorate about a deal he signed.
The same with 'cauldron', which I've heard used (it seems mostly in the US).
It does seem Boris's comment piece has had a beneficial effect when even Sky were saying this morning that it does demonstrate the nuance of the his and HMG present position
Furthermore, Politico is reporting that speaking last night ahead of the Foreign Ministers meeting in Brussels, to Politico’s Suzanne Lynch, he said that the EU is prepared to move on the key demand of the unionist community in Northern Ireland.
Talk of defeating either side only brings more discourse and division, and we need to demand all parties get together and sort this out and stop the blame game, it simply is not helping
Fighting in Whitehall between No 10 and the FO, apparently, plus local businesses are saying HMG is lying. But **** business of course.
'A source confirmed that the letter from the Northern Ireland business Brexit working group, an umbrella organisation of 14 business bodies, told the prime minister there was the prospect of a deal with the EU.
“It was being suggested that action was needed because business groups asked for it and trade was suffering because of the protocol. We asked them specifically not to launch unilateral action. We do not need the nuclear option when we believe there is still a prospect of a deal,” said the source.
They said that it was astonishing that Johnson was flying to Northern Ireland threatening unilateral action and not meeting the group, despite their pleas, adding that the government had shown scant interest in business – with one 15-minute Zoom call with Liz Truss in January and no engagement since.
The business working group – which includes the Confederation of British Industry, the NI Food and Drink Association, the Ulster Farmers Union, Manufacturing NI, Hospitality Ulster, the Institute of Directors NI, Logistics UK and the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium – is reportedly perplexed by statements from government listing issues that have already been resolved or which are close to being resolved.'
I've lowered my expectations of R4 a lot over the years but I'd expect the listenership to have a clue about salient (adj) and salients (n).
I hope that common sense prevails but because of the flawed GFA, a pathway through seems to require consensus from the DUP
O/T, another interesting Meeks piece, this time on cannabis:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/high-street-93c017a4d6a1
The conclusions aren't especially original, but the style is as readable as always..
Cosmic strings are hypothetical 1-dimensional topological defects which may have formed during a symmetry-breaking phase transition in the early universe when the topology of the vacuum manifold associated to this symmetry breaking was not simply connected.
I should comment that while I have been to Ireland several times, I have not been to Northern Ireland and do not hold strong views on its reunification or not
https://john2468.medium.com/you-dont-understand-republicans-f1c1e26ec457
Whether that space can be used by @BorisJohnson — given that the ERG made Johnson, and still think they can break him — is the story of the next phase of all this/7
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1526093086933323779
There is a good chance the Ds get a shellacking in November - almost certainly they will lose the House, despite what has been an extraordinary successful gerrymandering campaign in D states (although the judicial ruling in NY State was a big blow). Good chance they will lose the Senate as well.
If that is the case, I cannot imagine Biden will want to go on for another term, especially given he is not in a great state of health. The D establishment knows Harris would get absolutely shafted in an election but the problem they have is that - ex-some sort of Agnew-style scandal - she is not the type to step aside. They also know that pushing out a Black / Asian woman - and one who is quite happy to tack hard left if that is what is needed to win the nomination - is not going to go down too well with the caucus.
So my guess is that they will write 2024 off, especially if they do poorly in November. It's worth noting that all the D other candidates mentioned above (with the possible exception of Polis) are tarred by the fact that they followed along with the left-wing antics and abandoned previously-held centrist positions, especially when it came to cultural issues. That is going to give the Rs plenty of material to work with, especially given the strong signs that swing voters aren't particularly enamoured re being told they're racist (if white) and / or the fact the Ds are losing Hispanic voters in drove. Buttegeig and Whitmer also both have negative factors against them (Pete B that he took 6 weeks parental leave in the midst of a supply chain crisis and Whitmer because of her handling of the CV crisis in Michigan plus the recent collapse of the trial of those accused of planning to kidnap her).
What does that mean for the candidate? I think Biden is too proud to lose, especially against Trump, so he won't win re-election. The D establishment will think it's better to let Harris be the candidate and lose 2024 so that she is out of the system. The real interesting question would be the VP pick for the Ds in 2024 because that will give an insight into who they think could win in 2028 post-Trump's 2nd term.
Yes, I think Trump will run again. I don't think he should but, given what is happening with inflation, the cost of living crisis etc, I think the temptation will be too great for him. Other R candidates will take the view they can wait until 2028 so best not to oppose him and instead try and get the VP pick (I think Trump would go with DeSantis, and I suspect DeSantis will already have a view on whom he would have as running mate in 2028).
And if you're wondering how a collection of zero or one dimensional particles could give rise to at least three spatial dimensions, well, that's the whole point.
The question though is how do we get from here to a position where the EU is willing to compromise and recognise equivalence is the solution? Simply saying "diplomacy" or "trust" or "compromise" isn't a practical idea.
The EU don't want to compromise and there quite rightly is no trust because the EU is not an institution to be trusted, it is a rules-based operation which is why they're sticking to their rules. When we've made "good faith" gestures in the past, there's been no reciprocation, so we need to give them no alternative but to compromise and then make the compromise the new rules, that is the only solution.
Article 16 will do that.
The NI Protocol is a disaster, but it looked like a disaster way back in 2019 to us stop Brexit traitors.
I am not sure whether Johnson understood or cared about the Pandora's Box he was opening then. I am not sure whether Johnson understands or cares about the Pandora's Box he is opening now.
Are you familiar with the concept of a "necessary but not sufficient" condition? Majoritarian support for the Protocol is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Protocol to continue.
In order for the Protocol to be implemented and continued in full then there are three necessary conditions that have to be met. Every single one of them is a necessary but not sufficient condition, only if all are met is it sufficient.
1: Majoritarian support for the Protocol existing.
2: The Protocol is not causing "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist"
3: The Protocol is not causing "diversion of trade"
Since the Protocol is causing serious societal difficulties (Stormont is suspended due to it) the Safeguarding must be implemented.
Majority support for the Protocol does not prevent the Protocol's own safeguarding procedures being implemented if the Protocol is causing serious societal issues or diversion of trade.
The executive is a wee pretendy parliament where some very unpleasant people are supposed to get training in how to fake playing nice together. Learn to leave the baseball bats and iron bars used for smashing kneecaps in the umbrella stand in the hall....
The methodology that London took was to simply carry on the existing trajectory of various policies. When it gets down to the schools, hospitals and roads stuff in NI, the actual policies of, say, the TUV and SF are not very dissimilar. Except of course, the moment you can make it into a sectarian thing.
If De Santis or Haley or Pence runs, then I think Biden will step down to make room for someone else.
He understands that not opening it now might lose him the job of PM.
Invoking A16 may require legislation due to Miller perhaps. IANAL so can't comment on that, I simply think the A16 is the solution.
But if you're objecting to the Government not invoking A16 then are you saying they should invoke A16? Can we at last be on the same page?
Party insists on a particular arrangement, having vetoed all other possibilities.
This arrangement proves to have the support of the majority of the population, and of business as well.
Party decides this outcome is intolerable and must be scrapped forthwith.
Finding it hard to think of an equivalent example.