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Today just about everybody gets poorer – politicalbetting.com

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    HY was spot on actually with a post yesterday, you only get 4%+ Labour lead at the moment by stealing from Lib Dems and greens to a degree that looks unreal. I’ll add the fact the combined Lab, ldem, and green total has been dropping quite sharply recently, nearer just 50 now than 57. I’ll also throw in, in this yougov poll, reform + Tory = labour Behind?
    I follow the aggregate Lab/Lib/Green share. It's important because in our polarized politics, with wedge issues and 'values' trumping more traditional debates around tax & spend, people having to choose a side even if they'd rather not, what we could be looking at at the next election is a bit of an American type 'trads v progs' situation, a binary fight where one of the 2 sides will prevail and form the government, Tories outright or Labour in a loose alliance.

    That's the sort of election the Tories have in mind. They'll seek to paint Labour, in an impressionistic way rather than based on official policy positions, as unsafe on traditional values, and other parties on the centre left as enablers of this. This, plus "vote Starmer get Sturgeon" is going to be the Tory pitch. It's unedifying but they have no choice, really, because with their Brexitification, and the man they've embraced as leader, on most substantial issues they've become, not to put too fine a point on it, intellectually vacant.
    “ I follow the aggregate Lab/Lib/Green share.”

    So is it dropping then?
    Yes. Bit of a worry.
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    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
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    The LDs need to throw the kitchen sink at the new Westmorland & Eden & Highland North seats to keep their experienced MPs in Parliament, plus Brecon & Radnor in Wales & St lves in Cornwall to regain a toehold in previous areas of strength. Concentrating on remain areas is not enough if they wish to make a serious comeback.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited April 2022
    Will the Tories face such a drubbing in the local elections?

    Remember in the 2018 locals May's Tories only got 35% NEV anyway, close to what the Conservatives are still polling now.

    In fact the biggest shift may be from LD to Labour, given Corbyn Labour only got 35% in 2018 and the LDs got 16% and Starmer Labour are now polling higher than that and the LDs polling lower (albeit taking into account the LDs do a bit better in local than national elections)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
  • Options

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    Big G the professional deflector
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,638

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    You don't think similar stories occur across 'Boris Johnson's England'?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    HY was spot on actually with a post yesterday, you only get 4%+ Labour lead at the moment by stealing from Lib Dems and greens to a degree that looks unreal. I’ll add the fact the combined Lab, ldem, and green total has been dropping quite sharply recently, nearer just 50 now than 57. I’ll also throw in, in this yougov poll, reform + Tory = labour Behind?
    I follow the aggregate Lab/Lib/Green share. It's important because in our polarized politics, with wedge issues and 'values' trumping more traditional debates around tax & spend, people having to choose a side even if they'd rather not, what we could be looking at at the next election is a bit of an American type 'trads v progs' situation, a binary fight where one of the 2 sides will prevail and form the government, Tories outright or Labour in a loose alliance.

    That's the sort of election the Tories have in mind. They'll seek to paint Labour, in an impressionistic way rather than based on official policy positions, as unsafe on traditional values, and other parties on the centre left as enablers of this. This, plus "vote Starmer get Sturgeon" is going to be the Tory pitch. It's unedifying but they have no choice, really, because with their Brexitification, and the man they've embraced as leader, on most substantial issues they've become, not to put too fine a point on it, intellectually vacant.
    I wonder if, when push comes to shove, a lot of 'Conservative' voters will be 'unable' to vote for the current PM & cabinet and simply stay at home.
    I wonder that too. I wonder it very intensely!

    We can get a handle on it from here. Let's see when the GE is upon us how many PB Tories, many of whom by that time will have written squillions of posts saying what a disgrace Johnson is, are nevertheless planning to 'hold their nose' because the prospect of a Labour government relying on SNP support is just *too* horrendous for words.

    See, I'm getting pissed off already.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,316

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway my sore throat has now gone to my chest, which almost invariably happens. Bugger! I am wrapped up with so many layers. The heating has been off for ages now and is not getting switched back on for the foreseeable future.

    How will people expected to work from home feel about their employers dumping them with the increased heating and lighting costs, I wonder? I'd be furious. I wonder if will make any change to those coming into the office.

    And hasn't HMG axed the (small) tax relief for working from home?

    If you cannot turn the heating on, you could look at those electric throws so you just heat you up, rather than the whole house.
    Today is the first day of the government's new boiler scheme, or it would be if they had not been taken by surprise by their own plans.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/check-if-you-may-be-eligible-for-the-boiler-upgrade-scheme-from-april-2022

    Look at the backwards timeline from that link and tell me they've not messed up:-
    Timeline
    1 April 2022 - Low carbon heating systems that are commissioned on or after this date will be entitled to support under the scheme. (Commissioning is the completion of installation and set up of the system).

    11 April 2022 - Installers will be able to open an account for the scheme with Ofgem, the scheme administrator.

    23 May 2022 - The scheme opens for grant applications and payments.


  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,154

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:



    Wind power by contrast had a death tally of 150 deaths per trillion kWh.

    Not to mention the bird life.

    I don't mind wind power but it's not the greatest thing if you're being authentic about green life.
    The number of birds killed by wind turbines is insignificant compared to the numbers killed by glass-fronted buildings and domestic cats. Not to mention the ones that will die out due to loss of habitat resulting from climate change which, of course, wind power is intended to counter.
    Sounds like whataboutery to me.

    Estimates put the number of birds killed by wind turbines as between 10,000 and 100,000 a year in the UK.

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/how-many-birds-are-killed-by-wind-turbines-in-the-uk/

    I'm not anti wind turbines. I actually think they can look quite cool. But they're not particularly efficient at around 30%.
    I'm struggling to understand why efficiency is of any relevance whatsoever.


    It does matter because it's a basic tenet of economics and because we should be seeking the most efficient energy sources we can in our move to more sustainable and long-term viable ways of producing energy. That's why energy efficiency is such a huge topic in the global discussion and in policy setting by governments.

    One of the problems we have is that some of the so-called greener forms of energy are not particularly efficient. So, for example, you have to build one hell of a lot of wind turbines, or install field loads of solar panels, in order to yield the kind of comparable results with other, less sustainable, forms of energy.

    The more efficient we can make things like solar panels, the more we solve the energy crisis. If we could get a solar panel that was 50% efficient, then 70% etc. then we really are getting close to cracking the energy crisis. Not only can all homes be lit and heated by solar but we may well get solar powered cars. That's just one example of why the efficiency chase is so hot at the moment.
    Even if you had a 100% efficient solar panel, you couldn't power a car off it. Not enough area on the car to collect power.

    Yes, people have built "solar powered cars", which are closer to 4 wheeled bicycles with no real world usefulness.
    Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds.

    Once upon a time the same technology that enables me to type on this MacBook would have required several factories filled with computer machinery and, even then, it wouldn't have come close.

    Likewise battery storage capacity has come on staggeringly from fifty, thirty and even twenty years ago.

    And so it has been with every scientific advance.

    We WILL get there with solar power until the day dawns when most everything, including your car, could be powered by solar tech as small as the palm of your hand.

    And battery storage tech will also advance unrecognisably.

    Until you hit the barriers of the laws of physics e.g. the speed of light, there is nothing to stop this. And we will do it.
    "Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds."

    AIUI, you will *never* get a car-sized solar panel that will generate enough power for a car to move (at least a modern-sized car). Simply because not enough energy comes from the sun over the footprint of the car for it to do so. Even with 100% efficient solar panels, in hotter countries.

    It doesn't matter how much science advances: you cannot make a 'solar panel' that will generate more power than the power the area receives from the sun.
    A more interesting question is how much distance a solar panel on top of a car would generate over the course of a year.

    As far as I can work out one square metre of solar panel can generate 120 kWh in one year in Edinburgh when facing upwards. A reasonable estimate for electric car efficiency is 20 kWh per 100 km.

    So you'd get about 600 km over a year.

    It's not nothing, but it's a long way from fully powering the car.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,638
    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.


    We need a much stronger word than 'hypocrisy' for the Russia's attitude.

    Hypercrisy ?
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    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    You don't think similar stories occur across 'Boris Johnson's England'?
    Remember though Big G's vote is up for grabs! ROFL
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    edited April 2022

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Tell your people there's no difference between Russia nd Ukraine and they are bound to get confused.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    They've been secretive about their air operations throughout so that's not surprising.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,638
    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    Also: 1) it would be a pretty bloody daring raid, and 2) to what purpose? Is it going to hurt the Russian invasion? I don't know.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    edited April 2022
    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    This is the regime that, in what they insist is in all sincerity, has loudly complained about hostile words being directed at them as being entirely unreasonable, even as they launch an invasion and kill thousands. Their sockpuppets literally complain about Ukrainians defending themselves on the basis it leads to more killing.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,325

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Think this was because there was no confirmation from the Ukrainian government. Yet.
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    It is an honour to have been asked by the PM to serve as Director of Communications for No10 Downing Street.

    I am looking forward to working with the PM, Ministers and Members of Parliament on the issues that matter most to our country

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1509794232411828224
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    edited April 2022

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    Also: 1) it would be a pretty bloody daring raid, and 2) to what purpose? Is it going to hurt the Russian invasion? I don't know.
    Yes, for the same reason that Russia has been hitting Ukrainian fuel depots with cruise missiles. It will also force Russia to tie up more of its resources on protecting its own territory.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,188

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway my sore throat has now gone to my chest, which almost invariably happens. Bugger! I am wrapped up with so many layers. The heating has been off for ages now and is not getting switched back on for the foreseeable future.

    How will people expected to work from home feel about their employers dumping them with the increased heating and lighting costs, I wonder? I'd be furious. I wonder if will make any change to those coming into the office.

    And hasn't HMG axed the (small) tax relief for working from home?

    If you cannot turn the heating on, you could look at those electric throws so you just heat you up, rather than the whole house.
    A blanket and hot water bottle will do. I grew up in an unheated house so I know all the tricks. My income is irregular so I have to keep a tight lid on costs, like everyone.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,015
    Carnyx said:

    Morning all. Cold today; heat from the fusion reactor in the sky is, somehow, being blocked, although it's bright enough. Snowflakes on our car (which lives outside).

    Morning too OKC. Same sort of bright but wersh [Anglice, thin, insipid] day up here, though yesterday's squalls' loads of expanded polystyrene lentils have mostly melted.
    That’s interesting, I only used wersh for something sour or bitter, wasn’t aware of the insipid alternative meaning until today. Odd that if not absolutely contradictory, at least very different meanings.
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    Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Will the Tories face such a drubbing in the local elections?

    Remember in the 2018 locals May's Tories only got 35% NEV anyway, roughly what the Conservatives are still polling now.

    In fact the biggest shift may be from LD to Labour, given Corbyn Labour only got 35% in 2018 and the LDs got 16% and Starmer Labour are now polling higher than that and the LDs polling lower (albeit taking into account the LDs do a bit better in local than national elections)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes, if the Labour lead is not more than 5% going into the local elections, I do think Labour will struggle to end up more than 2% in the NEV.

    I also think in some ways there is the most riding on it for the LDs TBH and they need to gain one big prize such as Somerset or they are in trouble.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:



    Wind power by contrast had a death tally of 150 deaths per trillion kWh.

    Not to mention the bird life.

    I don't mind wind power but it's not the greatest thing if you're being authentic about green life.
    The number of birds killed by wind turbines is insignificant compared to the numbers killed by glass-fronted buildings and domestic cats. Not to mention the ones that will die out due to loss of habitat resulting from climate change which, of course, wind power is intended to counter.
    Sounds like whataboutery to me.

    Estimates put the number of birds killed by wind turbines as between 10,000 and 100,000 a year in the UK.

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/how-many-birds-are-killed-by-wind-turbines-in-the-uk/

    I'm not anti wind turbines. I actually think they can look quite cool. But they're not particularly efficient at around 30%.
    I'm struggling to understand why efficiency is of any relevance whatsoever.


    It does matter because it's a basic tenet of economics and because we should be seeking the most efficient energy sources we can in our move to more sustainable and long-term viable ways of producing energy. That's why energy efficiency is such a huge topic in the global discussion and in policy setting by governments.

    One of the problems we have is that some of the so-called greener forms of energy are not particularly efficient. So, for example, you have to build one hell of a lot of wind turbines, or install field loads of solar panels, in order to yield the kind of comparable results with other, less sustainable, forms of energy.

    The more efficient we can make things like solar panels, the more we solve the energy crisis. If we could get a solar panel that was 50% efficient, then 70% etc. then we really are getting close to cracking the energy crisis. Not only can all homes be lit and heated by solar but we may well get solar powered cars. That's just one example of why the efficiency chase is so hot at the moment.
    Even if you had a 100% efficient solar panel, you couldn't power a car off it. Not enough area on the car to collect power.

    Yes, people have built "solar powered cars", which are closer to 4 wheeled bicycles with no real world usefulness.
    Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds.

    Once upon a time the same technology that enables me to type on this MacBook would have required several factories filled with computer machinery and, even then, it wouldn't have come close.

    Likewise battery storage capacity has come on staggeringly from fifty, thirty and even twenty years ago.

    And so it has been with every scientific advance.

    We WILL get there with solar power until the day dawns when most everything, including your car, could be powered by solar tech as small as the palm of your hand.

    And battery storage tech will also advance unrecognisably.

    Until you hit the barriers of the laws of physics e.g. the speed of light, there is nothing to stop this. And we will do it.
    "Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds."

    AIUI, you will *never* get a car-sized solar panel that will generate enough power for a car to move (at least a modern-sized car). Simply because not enough energy comes from the sun over the footprint of the car for it to do so. Even with 100% efficient solar panels, in hotter countries.

    It doesn't matter how much science advances: you cannot make a 'solar panel' that will generate more power than the power the area receives from the sun.
    A more interesting question is how much distance a solar panel on top of a car would generate over the course of a year.

    As far as I can work out one square metre of solar panel can generate 120 kWh in one year in Edinburgh when facing upwards. A reasonable estimate for electric car efficiency is 20 kWh per 100 km.

    So you'd get about 600 km over a year.

    It's not nothing, but it's a long way from fully powering the car.
    Probably a reasonably efficient front-facing windmill on the car roof would generate enough energy to power it.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    edited April 2022
    Good, sensible article on COVID! by the ever rational and astute Nick Triggle. Breathtaking expense on mass testing.

    Interestingly, reading roughly off his graph, it looks as if MOST covid hospitalisations are now ‘incidental’ i.e. they are not for covid at all, people simply happen to have it when they have been admitted for something else.

    Thanks for the replies yesterday morning, I had to rush off to a major work event (in person, hundreds there, only two masks spotted all day!) so wasn’t able to continue the debate.

    Much of PBers’ response struck me as irrational - what’s the point wearing a mask sometimes on a train for example then removing it at work/in the pub etc?

    We are all going to catch covid, probably several times. I think with the modern milder fast-spreading ‘defanged’ strains sporadic masking isn’t going to make much difference to individual outcomes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60945452
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,511
    It's suggested that household energy costs are going up towards £3000 pa. While this is terrible it may be worth bearing in mind proportionality. 10 fags, and a single daily pint in a pub will set you back about £3250 pa.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,487
    Interesting Atlantic article.

    The opening is a reminder that whatever we did, short of allowing continued Russian domination of its former satellite states, it would have been regarded as 'provocation'.

    Unless democracies defend themselves, the forces of autocracy will destroy them.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/autocracy-could-destroy-democracy-russia-ukraine/629363/
    ...In February 1994, in the grand ballroom of the town hall in Hamburg, Germany, the president of Estonia gave a remarkable speech. Standing before an audience in evening dress, Lennart Meri praised the values of the democratic world that Estonia then aspired to join. “The freedom of every individual, the freedom of the economy and trade, as well as the freedom of the mind, of culture and science, are inseparably interconnected,” he told the burghers of Hamburg. “They form the prerequisite of a viable democracy.” His country, having regained its independence from the Soviet Union three years earlier, believed in these values: “The Estonian people never abandoned their faith in this freedom during the decades of totalitarian oppression.”

    But Meri had also come to deliver a warning: Freedom in Estonia, and in Europe, could soon be under threat. Russian President Boris Yeltsin and the circles around him were returning to the language of imperialism, speaking of Russia as primus inter pares—the first among equals—in the former Soviet empire. In 1994, Moscow was already seething with the language of resentment, aggression, and imperial nostalgia; the Russian state was developing an illiberal vision of the world, and even then was preparing to enforce it. Meri called on the democratic world to push back: The West should “make it emphatically clear to the Russian leadership that another imperialist expansion will not stand a chance.”

    At that, the deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, Vladimir Putin, got up and walked out of the hall....
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,117

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    That would be bloody hilarious squared. And the whining about it would be hilarious to the power of 3,405,574.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    That’s not good. Alas similar stories in England. My wife having to wait 12 months for just the booking appointment to get on the waitlist for a critical, life changing surgical procedure.

    Officially not waiting in the stats.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    Also: 1) it would be a pretty bloody daring raid, and 2) to what purpose? Is it going to hurt the Russian invasion? I don't know.
    Apparently it is the fuel re-supply. So perhaps. Not fatally. But it's the psychology. Bombing Berlin at the height of the battle of Britain was probably military folly. But mentally priceless.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    algarkirk said:

    It's suggested that household energy costs are going up towards £3000 pa. While this is terrible it may be worth bearing in mind proportionality. 10 fags, and a single daily pint in a pub will set you back about £3250 pa.

    Fags are a niche luxury purchase these days. In my student days a bottle of wine cost about 2 packets of cigarettes. That has now inverted, 2 bottles of drinkable wine = 20 B&H. even quite rich smokers smoke smuggled rolling tobacco if they smoke at all.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting Atlantic article.

    The opening is a reminder that whatever we did, short of allowing continued Russian domination of its former satellite states, it would have been regarded as 'provocation'.

    Unless democracies defend themselves, the forces of autocracy will destroy them.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/autocracy-could-destroy-democracy-russia-ukraine/629363/

    Quite right. That is what believe in allowing Russia its 'spheres' means, that's what saying nations should not be able to chose which alliances they join means, it means buying into the Russian state mindset that they are owed those areas, even though they can no longer control them by any means but force of arms.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,316
    edited April 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway my sore throat has now gone to my chest, which almost invariably happens. Bugger! I am wrapped up with so many layers. The heating has been off for ages now and is not getting switched back on for the foreseeable future.

    How will people expected to work from home feel about their employers dumping them with the increased heating and lighting costs, I wonder? I'd be furious. I wonder if will make any change to those coming into the office.

    And hasn't HMG axed the (small) tax relief for working from home?

    If you cannot turn the heating on, you could look at those electric throws so you just heat you up, rather than the whole house.
    A blanket and hot water bottle will do. I grew up in an unheated house so I know all the tricks. My income is irregular so I have to keep a tight lid on costs, like everyone.
    My income is non-existent, as my redundancy has morphed into retirement. Last night I gave in and turned the heating back on.

    ETA an electric throw might be better than a hot water bottle as it can heat all of you.
  • Options

    It is an honour to have been asked by the PM to serve as Director of Communications for No10 Downing Street.

    I am looking forward to working with the PM, Ministers and Members of Parliament on the issues that matter most to our country

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1509794232411828224

    Actually @Scott_P posted that earlier
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:



    Wind power by contrast had a death tally of 150 deaths per trillion kWh.

    Not to mention the bird life.

    I don't mind wind power but it's not the greatest thing if you're being authentic about green life.
    The number of birds killed by wind turbines is insignificant compared to the numbers killed by glass-fronted buildings and domestic cats. Not to mention the ones that will die out due to loss of habitat resulting from climate change which, of course, wind power is intended to counter.
    Sounds like whataboutery to me.

    Estimates put the number of birds killed by wind turbines as between 10,000 and 100,000 a year in the UK.

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/how-many-birds-are-killed-by-wind-turbines-in-the-uk/

    I'm not anti wind turbines. I actually think they can look quite cool. But they're not particularly efficient at around 30%.
    I'm struggling to understand why efficiency is of any relevance whatsoever.


    It does matter because it's a basic tenet of economics and because we should be seeking the most efficient energy sources we can in our move to more sustainable and long-term viable ways of producing energy. That's why energy efficiency is such a huge topic in the global discussion and in policy setting by governments.

    One of the problems we have is that some of the so-called greener forms of energy are not particularly efficient. So, for example, you have to build one hell of a lot of wind turbines, or install field loads of solar panels, in order to yield the kind of comparable results with other, less sustainable, forms of energy.

    The more efficient we can make things like solar panels, the more we solve the energy crisis. If we could get a solar panel that was 50% efficient, then 70% etc. then we really are getting close to cracking the energy crisis. Not only can all homes be lit and heated by solar but we may well get solar powered cars. That's just one example of why the efficiency chase is so hot at the moment.
    Even if you had a 100% efficient solar panel, you couldn't power a car off it. Not enough area on the car to collect power.

    Yes, people have built "solar powered cars", which are closer to 4 wheeled bicycles with no real world usefulness.
    Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds.

    Once upon a time the same technology that enables me to type on this MacBook would have required several factories filled with computer machinery and, even then, it wouldn't have come close.

    Likewise battery storage capacity has come on staggeringly from fifty, thirty and even twenty years ago.

    And so it has been with every scientific advance.

    We WILL get there with solar power until the day dawns when most everything, including your car, could be powered by solar tech as small as the palm of your hand.

    And battery storage tech will also advance unrecognisably.

    Until you hit the barriers of the laws of physics e.g. the speed of light, there is nothing to stop this. And we will do it.
    "Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds."

    AIUI, you will *never* get a car-sized solar panel that will generate enough power for a car to move (at least a modern-sized car). Simply because not enough energy comes from the sun over the footprint of the car for it to do so. Even with 100% efficient solar panels, in hotter countries.

    It doesn't matter how much science advances: you cannot make a 'solar panel' that will generate more power than the power the area receives from the sun.
    A more interesting question is how much distance a solar panel on top of a car would generate over the course of a year.

    As far as I can work out one square metre of solar panel can generate 120 kWh in one year in Edinburgh when facing upwards. A reasonable estimate for electric car efficiency is 20 kWh per 100 km.

    So you'd get about 600 km over a year.

    It's not nothing, but it's a long way from fully powering the car.
    There was a Japanese TV series that went on for years and years where they modified a kei-van (which is a little light van that weighs a little under 1000 kg and usually runs off a 660cc petrol engine) to run off a battery powered by a solar panel on the roof, then drove around Japan in it.

    https://www.ntv.co.jp/dash/solar/index.html

    It's TV so it may all be fake but they claim they made 17,704km over 8 years, which would be a little over 2000 km per year. I guess that's not too far off your numbers since they're using a teensy little k thing not a normal car, and Japan is quite a bit further south than Edinburgh.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,015
    Pro_Rata said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    The following has been circulated - no idea if this is just internet chatter... The Russian government tried to bribe a considerable number of local officials in Ukraine, to do nothing when the invasion happened.

    In many cases, the attempted bribes were reported to the government and gone along with, to gain information on what the Russians were going to do.

    In the case of Kherson, the local defence plan wasn't activated. Apparently a couple of bridges are the key to access, but weren't blown. The suspicion was that someone took the Russian bribes.
    Has anyone watched Servant of the People on All4 yet? I have not, is it worth a try or lost in translation?

    Apparently deals in how to handle Russian bribery, as taxes paid for Ukr public services, and it has happened that way in a good number of cases. If Zelensky always intended to launch a political career that would count as some bit of 5 dimensional chess there.
    Only watched the first three episodes and the humour is fairly unsubtle, but I’m quite enjoying it. Can’t work out if that’s from the interest generated by a huge dollop of hindsight though.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,154

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:



    Wind power by contrast had a death tally of 150 deaths per trillion kWh.

    Not to mention the bird life.

    I don't mind wind power but it's not the greatest thing if you're being authentic about green life.
    The number of birds killed by wind turbines is insignificant compared to the numbers killed by glass-fronted buildings and domestic cats. Not to mention the ones that will die out due to loss of habitat resulting from climate change which, of course, wind power is intended to counter.
    Sounds like whataboutery to me.

    Estimates put the number of birds killed by wind turbines as between 10,000 and 100,000 a year in the UK.

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/how-many-birds-are-killed-by-wind-turbines-in-the-uk/

    I'm not anti wind turbines. I actually think they can look quite cool. But they're not particularly efficient at around 30%.
    I'm struggling to understand why efficiency is of any relevance whatsoever.


    It does matter because it's a basic tenet of economics and because we should be seeking the most efficient energy sources we can in our move to more sustainable and long-term viable ways of producing energy. That's why energy efficiency is such a huge topic in the global discussion and in policy setting by governments.

    One of the problems we have is that some of the so-called greener forms of energy are not particularly efficient. So, for example, you have to build one hell of a lot of wind turbines, or install field loads of solar panels, in order to yield the kind of comparable results with other, less sustainable, forms of energy.

    The more efficient we can make things like solar panels, the more we solve the energy crisis. If we could get a solar panel that was 50% efficient, then 70% etc. then we really are getting close to cracking the energy crisis. Not only can all homes be lit and heated by solar but we may well get solar powered cars. That's just one example of why the efficiency chase is so hot at the moment.
    Even if you had a 100% efficient solar panel, you couldn't power a car off it. Not enough area on the car to collect power.

    Yes, people have built "solar powered cars", which are closer to 4 wheeled bicycles with no real world usefulness.
    Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds.

    Once upon a time the same technology that enables me to type on this MacBook would have required several factories filled with computer machinery and, even then, it wouldn't have come close.

    Likewise battery storage capacity has come on staggeringly from fifty, thirty and even twenty years ago.

    And so it has been with every scientific advance.

    We WILL get there with solar power until the day dawns when most everything, including your car, could be powered by solar tech as small as the palm of your hand.

    And battery storage tech will also advance unrecognisably.

    Until you hit the barriers of the laws of physics e.g. the speed of light, there is nothing to stop this. And we will do it.
    Not always and everywhere. Smartphone batteries haven't noticeably improved over 15 years of smartphones
    The batteries have actually improved a lot. The increase in usage of power for faster processors has "used up" the improvement in performance, mostly.
    Yes people may think they haven't but they maybe don't realise how much more processing power and capability they now handle. Smartphone batteries are vastly better than 15 years ago.
    Original iPhone battery 1400 mAh.

    iPhone 13 Pro Max battery 4352 mAh.

    It's only three times larger, and is that because the phone is larger, so there's more space?

    iPhone 13 Pro Max 240g compared to 136g for the original iPhone.

    So, hard to tell how much the capacity: weight ratio has improved over 15 years. Certain it's by nowhere near as much as the power consumption efficiency of the chips themselves.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Gérard Dépardieu, who once received a Russian passport from Putin personally and praised him for years, now denounces Russia’s "crazy and unacceptable excesses" in Ukraine.

    The Kremlin comments: "I suppose Depardieu does not fully understand what is happening," Dmitry Peskov says. "If necessary, we are ready to explain all of this to him so that he does. If he wants."


    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1509827366352306212
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    It is an honour to have been asked by the PM to serve as Director of Communications for No10 Downing Street.

    I am looking forward to working with the PM, Ministers and Members of Parliament on the issues that matter most to our country

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1509794232411828224

    Checks date......
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,015
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    Depends why he's sacked them, but even there some leeway should be given. Churchill fired Halifax for concluding Britain couldn't win the war and recommending peace talks, but he's not usually considered authoritarian for doing so.

    Has he actually had them arrested, or just dismissed? If the latter, maybe again we should remember most of the senior officers of the Russian Army and intelligence service are currently mysteriously absent from their posts.

    If of course he's arrested them for telling him facts about the current Russian position he doesn't like, that's altogether different.
    The ambassadors were sacked for ineffectiveness.
    It's unclear exactly why the generals were sacked, but the were said to have 'violated their oaths' , and named as 'traitors'.
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445232-zelensky-says-two-generals-who-turned-out-to-be-traitors-stripped-of-their-rank.html

    I don't think we'll know much more until they face trial - or don't.
    Zelensky appears to have happily devolved the management of fighting to the defence ministry and the armed forces, so doesn't thus far appear to be a nascent autocrat - and has referred several times to the responsibility of his successors - so I'm inclined for now to give him the benefit of the doubt.
    And I don't think Ukraine would tolerate an autocrat anyway.

    But it is an entirely legitimate concern.
    Rather it could be a legitimate concern one day. I've read this argument this morning and was a bit baffled at the idea a couple of guys being sacked or even arrested is prima facie a concerning development. I'd think a bit more of a trend or pattern, or at least reporting it was not justified, would be needed before it was presumed to be a sign of authoritarianism.

    As someone mentioned Ukraine was and is not perfect, it and Zelensky might and probably will do things we consider not ok, hes not Jesus. But going 'oooh, is this a sign of authoritarianism?' seems like it requires a bit more than a couple of sackings and arrests during a war. Macron's just sacked an intelligence head is that a sign of authoritarianism or is there a non sinister explanation?

    Maybe we pause the hunt until there's more to it.
    Alternatively all governments involved in existential wars are essentially authoritarian. The UK banged people up for selling frothy coffee after all.
  • Options
    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:



    Wind power by contrast had a death tally of 150 deaths per trillion kWh.

    Not to mention the bird life.

    I don't mind wind power but it's not the greatest thing if you're being authentic about green life.
    The number of birds killed by wind turbines is insignificant compared to the numbers killed by glass-fronted buildings and domestic cats. Not to mention the ones that will die out due to loss of habitat resulting from climate change which, of course, wind power is intended to counter.
    Sounds like whataboutery to me.

    Estimates put the number of birds killed by wind turbines as between 10,000 and 100,000 a year in the UK.

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/how-many-birds-are-killed-by-wind-turbines-in-the-uk/

    I'm not anti wind turbines. I actually think they can look quite cool. But they're not particularly efficient at around 30%.
    I'm struggling to understand why efficiency is of any relevance whatsoever.


    It does matter because it's a basic tenet of economics and because we should be seeking the most efficient energy sources we can in our move to more sustainable and long-term viable ways of producing energy. That's why energy efficiency is such a huge topic in the global discussion and in policy setting by governments.

    One of the problems we have is that some of the so-called greener forms of energy are not particularly efficient. So, for example, you have to build one hell of a lot of wind turbines, or install field loads of solar panels, in order to yield the kind of comparable results with other, less sustainable, forms of energy.

    The more efficient we can make things like solar panels, the more we solve the energy crisis. If we could get a solar panel that was 50% efficient, then 70% etc. then we really are getting close to cracking the energy crisis. Not only can all homes be lit and heated by solar but we may well get solar powered cars. That's just one example of why the efficiency chase is so hot at the moment.
    Even if you had a 100% efficient solar panel, you couldn't power a car off it. Not enough area on the car to collect power.

    Yes, people have built "solar powered cars", which are closer to 4 wheeled bicycles with no real world usefulness.
    Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds.

    Once upon a time the same technology that enables me to type on this MacBook would have required several factories filled with computer machinery and, even then, it wouldn't have come close.

    Likewise battery storage capacity has come on staggeringly from fifty, thirty and even twenty years ago.

    And so it has been with every scientific advance.

    We WILL get there with solar power until the day dawns when most everything, including your car, could be powered by solar tech as small as the palm of your hand.

    And battery storage tech will also advance unrecognisably.

    Until you hit the barriers of the laws of physics e.g. the speed of light, there is nothing to stop this. And we will do it.
    "Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds."

    AIUI, you will *never* get a car-sized solar panel that will generate enough power for a car to move (at least a modern-sized car). Simply because not enough energy comes from the sun over the footprint of the car for it to do so. Even with 100% efficient solar panels, in hotter countries.

    It doesn't matter how much science advances: you cannot make a 'solar panel' that will generate more power than the power the area receives from the sun.
    A more interesting question is how much distance a solar panel on top of a car would generate over the course of a year.

    As far as I can work out one square metre of solar panel can generate 120 kWh in one year in Edinburgh when facing upwards. A reasonable estimate for electric car efficiency is 20 kWh per 100 km.

    So you'd get about 600 km over a year.

    It's not nothing, but it's a long way from fully powering the car.
    Probably a reasonably efficient front-facing windmill on the car roof would generate enough energy to power it.
    I'm genuinely surprised Heathener hasn't taken the bait and endorsed this yet...
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    That’s not good. Alas similar stories in England. My wife having to wait 12 months for just the booking appointment to get on the waitlist for a critical, life changing surgical procedure.

    Officially not waiting in the stats.
    I waited just over 36 months for a bi lateral hernia operation and before covid
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052

    Pro_Rata said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    The following has been circulated - no idea if this is just internet chatter... The Russian government tried to bribe a considerable number of local officials in Ukraine, to do nothing when the invasion happened.

    In many cases, the attempted bribes were reported to the government and gone along with, to gain information on what the Russians were going to do.

    In the case of Kherson, the local defence plan wasn't activated. Apparently a couple of bridges are the key to access, but weren't blown. The suspicion was that someone took the Russian bribes.
    Has anyone watched Servant of the People on All4 yet? I have not, is it worth a try or lost in translation?

    Apparently deals in how to handle Russian bribery, as taxes paid for Ukr public services, and it has happened that way in a good number of cases. If Zelensky always intended to launch a political career that would count as some bit of 5 dimensional chess there.
    Only watched the first three episodes and the humour is fairly unsubtle, but I’m quite enjoying it. Can’t work out if that’s from the interest generated by a huge dollop of hindsight though.
    I can't vouch for the subtitles but there are some jokes that might not translate. For example at one point Zelensky's character is asked to choose a watch, and is told that Putin wears a Hublot. "Putin Hublot?" he asks, which sounds like "Putin huilo" in Ukrainian, i.e. Putin is a dickhead.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:



    Wind power by contrast had a death tally of 150 deaths per trillion kWh.

    Not to mention the bird life.

    I don't mind wind power but it's not the greatest thing if you're being authentic about green life.
    The number of birds killed by wind turbines is insignificant compared to the numbers killed by glass-fronted buildings and domestic cats. Not to mention the ones that will die out due to loss of habitat resulting from climate change which, of course, wind power is intended to counter.
    Sounds like whataboutery to me.

    Estimates put the number of birds killed by wind turbines as between 10,000 and 100,000 a year in the UK.

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/how-many-birds-are-killed-by-wind-turbines-in-the-uk/

    I'm not anti wind turbines. I actually think they can look quite cool. But they're not particularly efficient at around 30%.
    I'm struggling to understand why efficiency is of any relevance whatsoever.


    It does matter because it's a basic tenet of economics and because we should be seeking the most efficient energy sources we can in our move to more sustainable and long-term viable ways of producing energy. That's why energy efficiency is such a huge topic in the global discussion and in policy setting by governments.

    One of the problems we have is that some of the so-called greener forms of energy are not particularly efficient. So, for example, you have to build one hell of a lot of wind turbines, or install field loads of solar panels, in order to yield the kind of comparable results with other, less sustainable, forms of energy.

    The more efficient we can make things like solar panels, the more we solve the energy crisis. If we could get a solar panel that was 50% efficient, then 70% etc. then we really are getting close to cracking the energy crisis. Not only can all homes be lit and heated by solar but we may well get solar powered cars. That's just one example of why the efficiency chase is so hot at the moment.
    Even if you had a 100% efficient solar panel, you couldn't power a car off it. Not enough area on the car to collect power.

    Yes, people have built "solar powered cars", which are closer to 4 wheeled bicycles with no real world usefulness.
    Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds.

    Once upon a time the same technology that enables me to type on this MacBook would have required several factories filled with computer machinery and, even then, it wouldn't have come close.

    Likewise battery storage capacity has come on staggeringly from fifty, thirty and even twenty years ago.

    And so it has been with every scientific advance.

    We WILL get there with solar power until the day dawns when most everything, including your car, could be powered by solar tech as small as the palm of your hand.

    And battery storage tech will also advance unrecognisably.

    Until you hit the barriers of the laws of physics e.g. the speed of light, there is nothing to stop this. And we will do it.
    "Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds."

    AIUI, you will *never* get a car-sized solar panel that will generate enough power for a car to move (at least a modern-sized car). Simply because not enough energy comes from the sun over the footprint of the car for it to do so. Even with 100% efficient solar panels, in hotter countries.

    It doesn't matter how much science advances: you cannot make a 'solar panel' that will generate more power than the power the area receives from the sun.
    A more interesting question is how much distance a solar panel on top of a car would generate over the course of a year.

    As far as I can work out one square metre of solar panel can generate 120 kWh in one year in Edinburgh when facing upwards. A reasonable estimate for electric car efficiency is 20 kWh per 100 km.

    So you'd get about 600 km over a year.

    It's not nothing, but it's a long way from fully powering the car.
    Probably a reasonably efficient front-facing windmill on the car roof would generate enough energy to power it.
    I'm genuinely surprised Heathener hasn't taken the bait and endorsed this yet...
    I was going to say "with some left over" but thought that might be overegging it.
  • Options

    It is an honour to have been asked by the PM to serve as Director of Communications for No10 Downing Street.

    I am looking forward to working with the PM, Ministers and Members of Parliament on the issues that matter most to our country

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1509794232411828224

    Actually @Scott_P posted that earlier
    Auditioning for the mod role again?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    Depends why he's sacked them, but even there some leeway should be given. Churchill fired Halifax for concluding Britain couldn't win the war and recommending peace talks, but he's not usually considered authoritarian for doing so.

    Has he actually had them arrested, or just dismissed? If the latter, maybe again we should remember most of the senior officers of the Russian Army and intelligence service are currently mysteriously absent from their posts.

    If of course he's arrested them for telling him facts about the current Russian position he doesn't like, that's altogether different.
    The ambassadors were sacked for ineffectiveness.
    It's unclear exactly why the generals were sacked, but the were said to have 'violated their oaths' , and named as 'traitors'.
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445232-zelensky-says-two-generals-who-turned-out-to-be-traitors-stripped-of-their-rank.html

    I don't think we'll know much more until they face trial - or don't.
    Zelensky appears to have happily devolved the management of fighting to the defence ministry and the armed forces, so doesn't thus far appear to be a nascent autocrat - and has referred several times to the responsibility of his successors - so I'm inclined for now to give him the benefit of the doubt.
    And I don't think Ukraine would tolerate an autocrat anyway.

    But it is an entirely legitimate concern.
    Rather it could be a legitimate concern one day. I've read this argument this morning and was a bit baffled at the idea a couple of guys being sacked or even arrested is prima facie a concerning development. I'd think a bit more of a trend or pattern, or at least reporting it was not justified, would be needed before it was presumed to be a sign of authoritarianism.

    As someone mentioned Ukraine was and is not perfect, it and Zelensky might and probably will do things we consider not ok, hes not Jesus. But going 'oooh, is this a sign of authoritarianism?' seems like it requires a bit more than a couple of sackings and arrests during a war. Macron's just sacked an intelligence head is that a sign of authoritarianism or is there a non sinister explanation?

    Maybe we pause the hunt until there's more to it.
    Alternatively all governments involved in existential wars are essentially authoritarian. The UK banged people up for selling frothy coffee after all.
    Fair point.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983

    It is an honour to have been asked by the PM to serve as Director of Communications for No10 Downing Street.

    I am looking forward to working with the PM, Ministers and Members of Parliament on the issues that matter most to our country

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1509794232411828224

    Actually @Scott_P posted that earlier
    He does realise it is April 1st?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,648

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    Depends why he's sacked them, but even there some leeway should be given. Churchill fired Halifax for concluding Britain couldn't win the war and recommending peace talks, but he's not usually considered authoritarian for doing so.

    Has he actually had them arrested, or just dismissed? If the latter, maybe again we should remember most of the senior officers of the Russian Army and intelligence service are currently mysteriously absent from their posts.

    If of course he's arrested them for telling him facts about the current Russian position he doesn't like, that's altogether different.
    The ambassadors were sacked for ineffectiveness.
    It's unclear exactly why the generals were sacked, but the were said to have 'violated their oaths' , and named as 'traitors'.
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445232-zelensky-says-two-generals-who-turned-out-to-be-traitors-stripped-of-their-rank.html

    I don't think we'll know much more until they face trial - or don't.
    Zelensky appears to have happily devolved the management of fighting to the defence ministry and the armed forces, so doesn't thus far appear to be a nascent autocrat - and has referred several times to the responsibility of his successors - so I'm inclined for now to give him the benefit of the doubt.
    And I don't think Ukraine would tolerate an autocrat anyway.

    But it is an entirely legitimate concern.
    Rather it could be a legitimate concern one day. I've read this argument this morning and was a bit baffled at the idea a couple of guys being sacked or even arrested is prima facie a concerning development. I'd think a bit more of a trend or pattern, or at least reporting it was not justified, would be needed before it was presumed to be a sign of authoritarianism.

    As someone mentioned Ukraine was and is not perfect, it and Zelensky might and probably will do things we consider not ok, hes not Jesus. But going 'oooh, is this a sign of authoritarianism?' seems like it requires a bit more than a couple of sackings and arrests during a war. Macron's just sacked an intelligence head is that a sign of authoritarianism or is there a non sinister explanation?

    Maybe we pause the hunt until there's more to it.
    Alternatively all governments involved in existential wars are essentially authoritarian. The UK banged people up for selling frothy coffee after all.
    Quite right too. Black is the only way to take coffee.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    That’s not good. Alas similar stories in England. My wife having to wait 12 months for just the booking appointment to get on the waitlist for a critical, life changing surgical procedure.

    Officially not waiting in the stats.
    I waited just over 36 months for a bi lateral hernia operation and before covid
    Not good. I fear this will be at least as long, 12-15 months just to get on the waiting list is not a good sign. Unfortunately the problem is nasty and she already is nearly broken by it.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    Pro_Rata said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    The following has been circulated - no idea if this is just internet chatter... The Russian government tried to bribe a considerable number of local officials in Ukraine, to do nothing when the invasion happened.

    In many cases, the attempted bribes were reported to the government and gone along with, to gain information on what the Russians were going to do.

    In the case of Kherson, the local defence plan wasn't activated. Apparently a couple of bridges are the key to access, but weren't blown. The suspicion was that someone took the Russian bribes.
    Has anyone watched Servant of the People on All4 yet? I have not, is it worth a try or lost in translation?

    Apparently deals in how to handle Russian bribery, as taxes paid for Ukr public services, and it has happened that way in a good number of cases. If Zelensky always intended to launch a political career that would count as some bit of 5 dimensional chess there.
    Only watched the first three episodes and the humour is fairly unsubtle, but I’m quite enjoying it. Can’t work out if that’s from the interest generated by a huge dollop of hindsight though.
    Zelensky's humour progression from 'play piano with dick' to 'unsubtle' to 'super dark sarcasm' has been a real journey.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    It is an honour to have been asked by the PM to serve as Director of Communications for No10 Downing Street.

    I am looking forward to working with the PM, Ministers and Members of Parliament on the issues that matter most to our country

    https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1509794232411828224

    Actually @Scott_P posted that earlier
    He does realise it is April 1st?
    Of course he did and some fell for it !!!!
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,466

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    The poor can always go into whoring or menial char-lady/below stairs type services.

    What’s the problem? Cheaper blow jobs for the respectable classes. They stay warm and alive. Win/win

    That's pretty much the mindset, I think. Predict a job offer for you in the engine room.
    Btw I really enjoyed your lengthy and passionate debate with @Cyclefree about trans issues yesterday.

    It gave me an easy excuse to scroll past entire pages of PB while thinking “Jesus I don’t give a fuck what cyclefree and kinabalu think about trans issues, especially if it takes 19 paragraphs for them to express themselves” thus speeding up my entire day

    So, gratitude
    An unkind person might say that it is unsurprising you're not interested in matters affecting womens' rights.

    But I scroll past endless threads (never mind paragraphs) about Formula 1, cricket, football and rugby.

    So we're evens I think.
    What about Gardening Tips? 🙂

    I tried growing dolphins, but I didn’t use multi porpoise compost ☹
    Since Ms Cyclefree is currently laid up in one of her fur coats, now might be a good time.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,648

    Carnyx said:

    Morning all. Cold today; heat from the fusion reactor in the sky is, somehow, being blocked, although it's bright enough. Snowflakes on our car (which lives outside).

    Morning too OKC. Same sort of bright but wersh [Anglice, thin, insipid] day up here, though yesterday's squalls' loads of expanded polystyrene lentils have mostly melted.
    That’s interesting, I only used wersh for something sour or bitter, wasn’t aware of the insipid alternative meaning until today. Odd that if not absolutely contradictory, at least very different meanings.
    My main use of the word is for scrumpy type cider - I like the thin, unsweet, sour ciders. But it depends on context. It's the sunlight that was insipid earlier - the cider is also insipid in terms of the lack of sweetness, tbf.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    That’s not good. Alas similar stories in England. My wife having to wait 12 months for just the booking appointment to get on the waitlist for a critical, life changing surgical procedure.

    Officially not waiting in the stats.
    I waited just over 36 months for a bi lateral hernia operation and before covid
    Not good. I fear this will be at least as long, 12-15 months just to get on the waiting list is not a good sign. Unfortunately the problem is nasty and she already is nearly broken by it.
    I am so sorry to hear that and hope your wife gets treated soon
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,015

    Pro_Rata said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    The following has been circulated - no idea if this is just internet chatter... The Russian government tried to bribe a considerable number of local officials in Ukraine, to do nothing when the invasion happened.

    In many cases, the attempted bribes were reported to the government and gone along with, to gain information on what the Russians were going to do.

    In the case of Kherson, the local defence plan wasn't activated. Apparently a couple of bridges are the key to access, but weren't blown. The suspicion was that someone took the Russian bribes.
    Has anyone watched Servant of the People on All4 yet? I have not, is it worth a try or lost in translation?

    Apparently deals in how to handle Russian bribery, as taxes paid for Ukr public services, and it has happened that way in a good number of cases. If Zelensky always intended to launch a political career that would count as some bit of 5 dimensional chess there.
    Only watched the first three episodes and the humour is fairly unsubtle, but I’m quite enjoying it. Can’t work out if that’s from the interest generated by a huge dollop of hindsight though.
    I can't vouch for the subtitles but there are some jokes that might not translate. For example at one point Zelensky's character is asked to choose a watch, and is told that Putin wears a Hublot. "Putin Hublot?" he asks, which sounds like "Putin huilo" in Ukrainian, i.e. Putin is a dickhead.
    Well, that would definitely have passed me by!
    The subtitles struck me as pretty dodgy even if I don’t speak Ukranian. I’ve often wondered why subtitle translations don’t go through a second process, ie will this sound right to a speaker/reader of the second language? Perhaps it does happen as some translated subtitles are better than others.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    Also: 1) it would be a pretty bloody daring raid, and 2) to what purpose? Is it going to hurt the Russian invasion? I don't know.
    Apparently it is the fuel re-supply. So perhaps. Not fatally. But it's the psychology. Bombing Berlin at the height of the battle of Britain was probably military folly. But mentally priceless.
    It's described as a fuel depot, it's only 40k from Ukraine and on the main Moscow-Kharkiv road.

    Also

    "Since the alleged attack, a video has emerged online that appears to show long queues at a petrol station in the Belgorod region as Russian citizens are said to fear more Ukrainian strikes, driving some to stock up on essential goods.

    However, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said the incident would not affect the region's fuel supplies or prices for consumers.

    Roman Starovoit, governor of the neighbouring Kursk region, said its fuel supplies were sufficient to last several weeks and called on the population not to stockpile fuel." https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1589563/Russia-oil-depot-explosion-emergency-ukraine-latest-Vyacheslav-Gladkov-Belgorod-ont

    which is an invitation to go out and stockpile fuel if ever I heard one. And the Russians have been running out of fuel since about day 3 of the war already.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    That’s not good. Alas similar stories in England. My wife having to wait 12 months for just the booking appointment to get on the waitlist for a critical, life changing surgical procedure.

    Officially not waiting in the stats.
    I waited just over 36 months for a bi lateral hernia operation and before covid
    Not good. I fear this will be at least as long, 12-15 months just to get on the waiting list is not a good sign. Unfortunately the problem is nasty and she already is nearly broken by it.
    I am so sorry to hear that and hope your wife gets treated soon
    Thanks. Looks like I will have spend our savings and extend the mortgage a bit to conjure up a plan B.

    She can't go on living like this, which sounds like a throw away phrase - but I fear she really can't.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,648
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    HY was spot on actually with a post yesterday, you only get 4%+ Labour lead at the moment by stealing from Lib Dems and greens to a degree that looks unreal. I’ll add the fact the combined Lab, ldem, and green total has been dropping quite sharply recently, nearer just 50 now than 57. I’ll also throw in, in this yougov poll, reform + Tory = labour Behind?
    I follow the aggregate Lab/Lib/Green share. It's important because in our polarized politics, with wedge issues and 'values' trumping more traditional debates around tax & spend, people having to choose a side even if they'd rather not, what we could be looking at at the next election is a bit of an American type 'trads v progs' situation, a binary fight where one of the 2 sides will prevail and form the government, Tories outright or Labour in a loose alliance.

    That's the sort of election the Tories have in mind. They'll seek to paint Labour, in an impressionistic way rather than based on official policy positions, as unsafe on traditional values, and other parties on the centre left as enablers of this. This, plus "vote Starmer get Sturgeon" is going to be the Tory pitch. It's unedifying but they have no choice, really, because with their Brexitification, and the man they've embraced as leader, on most substantial issues they've become, not to put too fine a point on it, intellectually vacant.
    I wonder if, when push comes to shove, a lot of 'Conservative' voters will be 'unable' to vote for the current PM & cabinet and simply stay at home.
    I wonder that too. I wonder it very intensely!

    We can get a handle on it from here. Let's see when the GE is upon us how many PB Tories, many of whom by that time will have written squillions of posts saying what a disgrace Johnson is, are nevertheless planning to 'hold their nose' because the prospect of a Labour government relying on SNP support is just *too* horrendous for words.

    See, I'm getting pissed off already.
    You'd think the Tories didn't think that it was legitimate to have voters in Scotland elect whomsoever they might want to represent them. I wonder what that mentality might be called?
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 1,936
    edited April 2022
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    That would be bloody hilarious squared. And the whining about it would be hilarious to the power of 3,405,574.
    How on earth do you mistakenly attack your own oil depot?

    However impressive / unlikely surely a Ukranian attack has to be the most probably explanation? It’s not as if a false flag like this is going to achieve much at this point in the war.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    Also: 1) it would be a pretty bloody daring raid, and 2) to what purpose? Is it going to hurt the Russian invasion? I don't know.
    Apparently it is the fuel re-supply. So perhaps. Not fatally. But it's the psychology. Bombing Berlin at the height of the battle of Britain was probably military folly. But mentally priceless.
    It's described as a fuel depot, it's only 40k from Ukraine and on the main Moscow-Kharkiv road.

    Also

    "Since the alleged attack, a video has emerged online that appears to show long queues at a petrol station in the Belgorod region as Russian citizens are said to fear more Ukrainian strikes, driving some to stock up on essential goods.

    However, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said the incident would not affect the region's fuel supplies or prices for consumers.

    Roman Starovoit, governor of the neighbouring Kursk region, said its fuel supplies were sufficient to last several weeks and called on the population not to stockpile fuel." https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1589563/Russia-oil-depot-explosion-emergency-ukraine-latest-Vyacheslav-Gladkov-Belgorod-ont

    which is an invitation to go out and stockpile fuel if ever I heard one. And the Russians have been running out of fuel since about day 3 of the war already.
    So the thing about Putin is that if you think of him as a leader trying to strengthen Russia and restore the greatness of his nation then he seems like a total idiot, but if you think he's a dude who owns a load of oil company shares and wants the oil price to go up then everything he does makes sense.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    It's good to see everyone of influence now is on the same page on the important stuff, even as they can (and should) still disagree on so many other policy matters.

    David Lammy: "For too long, parts of the left, even some members of my own party, falsely divided the world into two camps. America and the West on one side, and their victims on the other. This has never been right, but this view has now been exposed for all to see as a farce."

    https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1509544535159889926
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    That’s not good. Alas similar stories in England. My wife having to wait 12 months for just the booking appointment to get on the waitlist for a critical, life changing surgical procedure.

    Officially not waiting in the stats.
    I waited just over 36 months for a bi lateral hernia operation and before covid
    Not good. I fear this will be at least as long, 12-15 months just to get on the waiting list is not a good sign. Unfortunately the problem is nasty and she already is nearly broken by it.
    I am so sorry to hear that and hope your wife gets treated soon
    Thanks. Looks like I will have spend our savings and extend the mortgage a bit to conjure up a plan B.

    She can't go on living like this, which sounds like a throw away phrase - but I fear she really can't.
    I am sure she cannot and really hope you will find a solution soon

    All the best
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,648
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Morning all. Cold today; heat from the fusion reactor in the sky is, somehow, being blocked, although it's bright enough. Snowflakes on our car (which lives outside).

    Morning too OKC. Same sort of bright but wersh [Anglice, thin, insipid] day up here, though yesterday's squalls' loads of expanded polystyrene lentils have mostly melted.
    That’s interesting, I only used wersh for something sour or bitter, wasn’t aware of the insipid alternative meaning until today. Odd that if not absolutely contradictory, at least very different meanings.
    My main use of the word is for scrumpy type cider - I like the thin, unsweet, sour ciders. But it depends on context. It's the sunlight that was insipid earlier - the cider is also insipid in terms of the lack of sweetness, tbf.
    PS to @Theuniondivvie

    On checking, it does seem to have a varied usage - my cider/sour usage is there, all right eg 'The goosegogs hadna ripened and were affa wersh.'

    https://www.dsl.ac.uk/entry/snd/wersh
    https://www.dsl.ac.uk/entry/snd/sndns4100
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,466
    edited April 2022

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:



    Wind power by contrast had a death tally of 150 deaths per trillion kWh.

    Not to mention the bird life.

    I don't mind wind power but it's not the greatest thing if you're being authentic about green life.
    The number of birds killed by wind turbines is insignificant compared to the numbers killed by glass-fronted buildings and domestic cats. Not to mention the ones that will die out due to loss of habitat resulting from climate change which, of course, wind power is intended to counter.
    Sounds like whataboutery to me.

    Estimates put the number of birds killed by wind turbines as between 10,000 and 100,000 a year in the UK.

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/how-many-birds-are-killed-by-wind-turbines-in-the-uk/

    I'm not anti wind turbines. I actually think they can look quite cool. But they're not particularly efficient at around 30%.
    I'm struggling to understand why efficiency is of any relevance whatsoever.


    It does matter because it's a basic tenet of economics and because we should be seeking the most efficient energy sources we can in our move to more sustainable and long-term viable ways of producing energy. That's why energy efficiency is such a huge topic in the global discussion and in policy setting by governments.

    One of the problems we have is that some of the so-called greener forms of energy are not particularly efficient. So, for example, you have to build one hell of a lot of wind turbines, or install field loads of solar panels, in order to yield the kind of comparable results with other, less sustainable, forms of energy.

    The more efficient we can make things like solar panels, the more we solve the energy crisis. If we could get a solar panel that was 50% efficient, then 70% etc. then we really are getting close to cracking the energy crisis. Not only can all homes be lit and heated by solar but we may well get solar powered cars. That's just one example of why the efficiency chase is so hot at the moment.
    Even if you had a 100% efficient solar panel, you couldn't power a car off it. Not enough area on the car to collect power.

    Yes, people have built "solar powered cars", which are closer to 4 wheeled bicycles with no real world usefulness.
    Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds.

    Once upon a time the same technology that enables me to type on this MacBook would have required several factories filled with computer machinery and, even then, it wouldn't have come close.

    Likewise battery storage capacity has come on staggeringly from fifty, thirty and even twenty years ago.

    And so it has been with every scientific advance.

    We WILL get there with solar power until the day dawns when most everything, including your car, could be powered by solar tech as small as the palm of your hand.

    And battery storage tech will also advance unrecognisably.

    Until you hit the barriers of the laws of physics e.g. the speed of light, there is nothing to stop this. And we will do it.
    "Not yet. But this is assuredly one of those areas, like computers and chip tech, where time and science will advance in incredible leaps and bounds."

    AIUI, you will *never* get a car-sized solar panel that will generate enough power for a car to move (at least a modern-sized car). Simply because not enough energy comes from the sun over the footprint of the car for it to do so. Even with 100% efficient solar panels, in hotter countries.

    It doesn't matter how much science advances: you cannot make a 'solar panel' that will generate more power than the power the area receives from the sun.
    A more interesting question is how much distance a solar panel on top of a car would generate over the course of a year.

    As far as I can work out one square metre of solar panel can generate 120 kWh in one year in Edinburgh when facing upwards. A reasonable estimate for electric car efficiency is 20 kWh per 100 km.

    So you'd get about 600 km over a year.

    It's not nothing, but it's a long way from fully powering the car.
    It's easier to use a battery as an intermediate stage :smile:

    Those usage numbers are in the correct ballpark. But a normal 4 kWp solar array on your roof is about 32 sqm.

    When I worked it out for my largish but not perfectly orientated solar array, it generated approximately 30,000 Tesla-km per annum.

    A normal solar panel is approx 1.2x1.8m = 2 sqm. Ish. I still have 2 spares in the garage I requested just before I accepted the quote on the install.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,806

    Pro_Rata said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    The following has been circulated - no idea if this is just internet chatter... The Russian government tried to bribe a considerable number of local officials in Ukraine, to do nothing when the invasion happened.

    In many cases, the attempted bribes were reported to the government and gone along with, to gain information on what the Russians were going to do.

    In the case of Kherson, the local defence plan wasn't activated. Apparently a couple of bridges are the key to access, but weren't blown. The suspicion was that someone took the Russian bribes.
    Has anyone watched Servant of the People on All4 yet? I have not, is it worth a try or lost in translation?

    Apparently deals in how to handle Russian bribery, as taxes paid for Ukr public services, and it has happened that way in a good number of cases. If Zelensky always intended to launch a political career that would count as some bit of 5 dimensional chess there.
    Only watched the first three episodes and the humour is fairly unsubtle, but I’m quite enjoying it. Can’t work out if that’s from the interest generated by a huge dollop of hindsight though.
    I can't vouch for the subtitles but there are some jokes that might not translate. For example at one point Zelensky's character is asked to choose a watch, and is told that Putin wears a Hublot. "Putin Hublot?" he asks, which sounds like "Putin huilo" in Ukrainian, i.e. Putin is a dickhead.
    I can live unsubtle if it looks to be building to something more interesting.

    I could have easily ceased Don Camillo after two chapters thinking it a lame Tom and Jerry facsimile, but that it came as a present and on recommendation from Mrs Rata.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Phil said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    That would be bloody hilarious squared. And the whining about it would be hilarious to the power of 3,405,574.
    How on earth do you mistakenly attack your own oil depot?

    However impressive / unlikely surely a Ukranian attack has to be the most probably explanation? It’s not as if a false flag like this is going to achieve much at this point in the war.
    It would be an impressively bonkers potlatch kind of move

    But the Russian o.g. theory must surely be wrong? I mean even on a commercial airliner and with a flightsafe phone you can get gps if you are in a window seat, so couldn't they look on google maps? It's 40k from Ukraine
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,015
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    Depends why he's sacked them, but even there some leeway should be given. Churchill fired Halifax for concluding Britain couldn't win the war and recommending peace talks, but he's not usually considered authoritarian for doing so.

    Has he actually had them arrested, or just dismissed? If the latter, maybe again we should remember most of the senior officers of the Russian Army and intelligence service are currently mysteriously absent from their posts.

    If of course he's arrested them for telling him facts about the current Russian position he doesn't like, that's altogether different.
    The ambassadors were sacked for ineffectiveness.
    It's unclear exactly why the generals were sacked, but the were said to have 'violated their oaths' , and named as 'traitors'.
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445232-zelensky-says-two-generals-who-turned-out-to-be-traitors-stripped-of-their-rank.html

    I don't think we'll know much more until they face trial - or don't.
    Zelensky appears to have happily devolved the management of fighting to the defence ministry and the armed forces, so doesn't thus far appear to be a nascent autocrat - and has referred several times to the responsibility of his successors - so I'm inclined for now to give him the benefit of the doubt.
    And I don't think Ukraine would tolerate an autocrat anyway.

    But it is an entirely legitimate concern.
    Rather it could be a legitimate concern one day. I've read this argument this morning and was a bit baffled at the idea a couple of guys being sacked or even arrested is prima facie a concerning development. I'd think a bit more of a trend or pattern, or at least reporting it was not justified, would be needed before it was presumed to be a sign of authoritarianism.

    As someone mentioned Ukraine was and is not perfect, it and Zelensky might and probably will do things we consider not ok, hes not Jesus. But going 'oooh, is this a sign of authoritarianism?' seems like it requires a bit more than a couple of sackings and arrests during a war. Macron's just sacked an intelligence head is that a sign of authoritarianism or is there a non sinister explanation?

    Maybe we pause the hunt until there's more to it.
    Alternatively all governments involved in existential wars are essentially authoritarian. The UK banged people up for selling frothy coffee after all.
    Quite right too. Black is the only way to take coffee.
    I wonder if Italian cafes were one of the few sources for really good coffee (of whatever composition) pre war? My paternal gran and grandad who were newly minted Edinburgh middle class in the 30s would make journeys to Crolla’s at the top of Leith Walk for coffee beans to grind their own coffee and other delicacies no doubt. I assume that all came to a shuddering halt in 1939, but sadly no one left alive to ask.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,466
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    Also: 1) it would be a pretty bloody daring raid, and 2) to what purpose? Is it going to hurt the Russian invasion? I don't know.
    Apparently it is the fuel re-supply. So perhaps. Not fatally. But it's the psychology. Bombing Berlin at the height of the battle of Britain was probably military folly. But mentally priceless.
    It's described as a fuel depot, it's only 40k from Ukraine and on the main Moscow-Kharkiv road.

    Also

    "Since the alleged attack, a video has emerged online that appears to show long queues at a petrol station in the Belgorod region as Russian citizens are said to fear more Ukrainian strikes, driving some to stock up on essential goods.

    However, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said the incident would not affect the region's fuel supplies or prices for consumers.

    Roman Starovoit, governor of the neighbouring Kursk region, said its fuel supplies were sufficient to last several weeks and called on the population not to stockpile fuel." https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1589563/Russia-oil-depot-explosion-emergency-ukraine-latest-Vyacheslav-Gladkov-Belgorod-ont

    which is an invitation to go out and stockpile fuel if ever I heard one. And the Russians have been running out of fuel since about day 3 of the war already.
    Targets in Russia / Belarus are legitimate of course. Though not oil storage depots, unless they are military.

    A couple of hundred tomahawk cruise missiles, and Ukr could sink most of both the Baltic and Black Sea fleets, take out much of the strategic Ru radar system, a series of superyachts, and put one through Putin's office window in Moscow for good measure.

    Incidentally, do we still have 3 months of strategic oil stocks? IIRC it used to be a requirement, but it may be exactly the sort of thing a traditional Conservative Govt would let slip.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,402
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    HY was spot on actually with a post yesterday, you only get 4%+ Labour lead at the moment by stealing from Lib Dems and greens to a degree that looks unreal. I’ll add the fact the combined Lab, ldem, and green total has been dropping quite sharply recently, nearer just 50 now than 57. I’ll also throw in, in this yougov poll, reform + Tory = labour Behind?
    I follow the aggregate Lab/Lib/Green share. It's important because in our polarized politics, with wedge issues and 'values' trumping more traditional debates around tax & spend, people having to choose a side even if they'd rather not, what we could be looking at at the next election is a bit of an American type 'trads v progs' situation, a binary fight where one of the 2 sides will prevail and form the government, Tories outright or Labour in a loose alliance.

    That's the sort of election the Tories have in mind. They'll seek to paint Labour, in an impressionistic way rather than based on official policy positions, as unsafe on traditional values, and other parties on the centre left as enablers of this. This, plus "vote Starmer get Sturgeon" is going to be the Tory pitch. It's unedifying but they have no choice, really, because with their Brexitification, and the man they've embraced as leader, on most substantial issues they've become, not to put too fine a point on it, intellectually vacant.
    I wonder if, when push comes to shove, a lot of 'Conservative' voters will be 'unable' to vote for the current PM & cabinet and simply stay at home.
    I wonder that too. I wonder it very intensely!

    We can get a handle on it from here. Let's see when the GE is upon us how many PB Tories, many of whom by that time will have written squillions of posts saying what a disgrace Johnson is, are nevertheless planning to 'hold their nose' because the prospect of a Labour government relying on SNP support is just *too* horrendous for words.

    See, I'm getting pissed off already.
    *Raises hand*

    I don't want to vote for a Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson. It's not his record - which I maintain is ok on the big stuff - I just don't want him as Prime Minister. But in all honesty I didn't want to vote for a Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson last time, and still did because the alternative was Corbyn. And actually, Boris has more than exceeded mylow expectations. If Boris was facing a nutter again I would be more likely to vote for him, not less.

    But I'm almost certainly not going to vote Labour. They appear to be going for dully competent, but it's not apparent from this angle that they'd be doing anything better than the Conservatives. And they - and particularly my local MP - were far too pro-lockdown. But yes - while the prospect of PM Starmer is no worse than underwhelming, the prospect of deputy PM Blackford or Sturgeon IS too horrendous for words. I'm not against Scottish independence on principle, but I am against the SNP having a say in the governance of the UK. The SNP have absolutely no interest in a functioning United Kingdom- in fact, it is inimical to what they are trying to achieve - and to invite them to help govern England would be insane. Plus, aside from their constitutional position, they are pretty much diametrically opposite me politically.

    See, Boris is a poor PM, but that is only one of a number of issues which needs weighing up. It's not, for me, unlike you I think, 'literally anyone but Boris' in the same way that the last election was 'literally anyone but Corbyn'.

    Actually, I have the luxury of living in a safe seat, so I can vote for who I want, not against who I don't want (though I still voted Con last time because the slightest chance of keeping Corbyn out was worth taking). So I'd like to give the Lib Dems a good look - I liked the approach they took to the pandemic, and if the last two years have shown us anything it's that liberty can't be taken for granted. They're probably winning for me at the moment. Not least because But if they run another campaign like last time which felt like it was designed explicitly to alienate me I expect I'll go off them.

    Obviously I'm not going to vote for the Green Party and barring anyone unexpectedly suitable turning up in Wythenshawe and Sale East probably not any of the other rag, tag and bobtail parties.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,648
    edited April 2022

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    Depends why he's sacked them, but even there some leeway should be given. Churchill fired Halifax for concluding Britain couldn't win the war and recommending peace talks, but he's not usually considered authoritarian for doing so.

    Has he actually had them arrested, or just dismissed? If the latter, maybe again we should remember most of the senior officers of the Russian Army and intelligence service are currently mysteriously absent from their posts.

    If of course he's arrested them for telling him facts about the current Russian position he doesn't like, that's altogether different.
    The ambassadors were sacked for ineffectiveness.
    It's unclear exactly why the generals were sacked, but the were said to have 'violated their oaths' , and named as 'traitors'.
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445232-zelensky-says-two-generals-who-turned-out-to-be-traitors-stripped-of-their-rank.html

    I don't think we'll know much more until they face trial - or don't.
    Zelensky appears to have happily devolved the management of fighting to the defence ministry and the armed forces, so doesn't thus far appear to be a nascent autocrat - and has referred several times to the responsibility of his successors - so I'm inclined for now to give him the benefit of the doubt.
    And I don't think Ukraine would tolerate an autocrat anyway.

    But it is an entirely legitimate concern.
    Rather it could be a legitimate concern one day. I've read this argument this morning and was a bit baffled at the idea a couple of guys being sacked or even arrested is prima facie a concerning development. I'd think a bit more of a trend or pattern, or at least reporting it was not justified, would be needed before it was presumed to be a sign of authoritarianism.

    As someone mentioned Ukraine was and is not perfect, it and Zelensky might and probably will do things we consider not ok, hes not Jesus. But going 'oooh, is this a sign of authoritarianism?' seems like it requires a bit more than a couple of sackings and arrests during a war. Macron's just sacked an intelligence head is that a sign of authoritarianism or is there a non sinister explanation?

    Maybe we pause the hunt until there's more to it.
    Alternatively all governments involved in existential wars are essentially authoritarian. The UK banged people up for selling frothy coffee after all.
    Quite right too. Black is the only way to take coffee.
    I wonder if Italian cafes were one of the few sources for really good coffee (of whatever composition) pre war? My paternal gran and grandad who were newly minted Edinburgh middle class in the 30s would make journeys to Crolla’s at the top of Leith Walk for coffee beans to grind their own coffee and other delicacies no doubt. I assume that all came to a shuddering halt in 1939, but sadly no one left alive to ask.
    1940 to be pedantic; yes, when Mr Churchill had the menfolk thrown into internment camps, like our local small burgh cafe - these last died in the Arandora Star (as I have mentioned here before) and so too did one of the Crollas. Though there were traditional non-Italian grocers which also roasted beans and ground coffee on demand - the smell of the coffee when going shopping with my parents is a (very early) childhood memory.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12492271.victor-crolla-visionary-behind-the-valvona-crolla-delicatessen/

    And something to trigger the PBTories: what happened to Mr Paolozzi the sculptor (statues, see?):

    https://www.scotsman.com/arts-and-culture/play-sparks-debate-over-whether-italians-deserve-apology-wartime-internment-1730439
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    It's good to see everyone of influence now is on the same page on the important stuff, even as they can (and should) still disagree on so many other policy matters.

    David Lammy: "For too long, parts of the left, even some members of my own party, falsely divided the world into two camps. America and the West on one side, and their victims on the other. This has never been right, but this view has now been exposed for all to see as a farce."

    https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1509544535159889926

    Says the man who spat his dummy out about "white saviours" Stacey Dooley, where he literally did that, West vs "victims".
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,466

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    There's been plenty of mention of it, also as a possible false-flag operation.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    In England, the estimated number of people testing positive for #COVID19 increased to a record level (week ending 26 March 2022). Around 1 in 13 people, not in care homes, hospitals or other institutional settings would have tested positive for COVID-19

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1509848383695073288?s=20&t=1vyoNRBts1QQ59pdKXCoGA
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    That’s not good. Alas similar stories in England. My wife having to wait 12 months for just the booking appointment to get on the waitlist for a critical, life changing surgical procedure.

    Officially not waiting in the stats.
    I waited just over 36 months for a bi lateral hernia operation and before covid
    Not good. I fear this will be at least as long, 12-15 months just to get on the waiting list is not a good sign. Unfortunately the problem is nasty and she already is nearly broken by it.
    I am so sorry to hear that and hope your wife gets treated soon
    Thanks. Looks like I will have spend our savings and extend the mortgage a bit to conjure up a plan B.

    She can't go on living like this, which sounds like a throw away phrase - but I fear she really can't.
    Waiting lists are very lumpy at the moment as they are coming rapidly down as just a few stragglers waiting over a year now, and with outpatients reduced for much of last year due to redeployment, not many went on. There are a lot of referrals to be seen, but what the conversion rate for surgical specialities to surgical waiting list will be, we don't know yet.

    No one really knows whether 100% or 20% of the missing referrals from the last 2 years will materialise as there are few precedents. So waiting lists are a bit of a guessing game.

    Anything requiring an anaesthetist, theatre staff or a surgical bed is not going to be quick. These are all in short supply, with staff vacancies and burnout, and beds still occupied by covid patients.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,154
    "A number of reports this morning that the Russians have pulled back from NW of Kyiv, all the way to Belarus"

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509813153542160387

    Huge defeat for Russia.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,154
    Ukrainian General Staff denying all knowledge of the attack on the oil depot in Belgorod. A bit curious.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,966
    MattW said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    There's been plenty of mention of it, also as a possible false-flag operation.
    Guardian a couple of minutes ago:
    Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said he could not confirm or deny Ukraine’s alleged involvement in a strike on a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod because he was not privy to all military information
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,143

    "A number of reports this morning that the Russians have pulled back from NW of Kyiv, all the way to Belarus"

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509813153542160387

    Huge defeat for Russia.

    Reculer pour mieux sauter.

  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 1,936
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    That’s not good. Alas similar stories in England. My wife having to wait 12 months for just the booking appointment to get on the waitlist for a critical, life changing surgical procedure.

    Officially not waiting in the stats.
    I waited just over 36 months for a bi lateral hernia operation and before covid
    Not good. I fear this will be at least as long, 12-15 months just to get on the waiting list is not a good sign. Unfortunately the problem is nasty and she already is nearly broken by it.
    I am so sorry to hear that and hope your wife gets treated soon
    Thanks. Looks like I will have spend our savings and extend the mortgage a bit to conjure up a plan B.

    She can't go on living like this, which sounds like a throw away phrase - but I fear she really can't.
    Waiting lists are very lumpy at the moment as they are coming rapidly down as just a few stragglers waiting over a year now, and with outpatients reduced for much of last year due to redeployment, not many went on. There are a lot of referrals to be seen, but what the conversion rate for surgical specialities to surgical waiting list will be, we don't know yet.

    No one really knows whether 100% or 20% of the missing referrals from the last 2 years will materialise as there are few precedents. So waiting lists are a bit of a guessing game.

    Anything requiring an anaesthetist, theatre staff or a surgical bed is not going to be quick. These are all in short supply, with staff vacancies and burnout, and beds still occupied by covid patients.
    Talking to people I know in the NHS, Covid is currently playing merry hell with staffing levels. It may not be killing very many people, or even putting them into intensive care, but it is rampant in the country & the levels of staff sickness are off the scale.

    Combine that with shortages due to burnout & lack of training / recruitment in prior years & things are really not great.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    edited April 2022

    kle4 said:

    It's good to see everyone of influence now is on the same page on the important stuff, even as they can (and should) still disagree on so many other policy matters.

    David Lammy: "For too long, parts of the left, even some members of my own party, falsely divided the world into two camps. America and the West on one side, and their victims on the other. This has never been right, but this view has now been exposed for all to see as a farce."

    https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1509544535159889926

    Says the man who spat his dummy out about "white saviours" Stacey Dooley, where he literally did that, West vs "victims".
    Nobody's perfect. His words don't rule out he was talking about himself a little.
  • Options

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    Also: 1) it would be a pretty bloody daring raid, and 2) to what purpose? Is it going to hurt the Russian invasion? I don't know.
    Apparently it is the fuel re-supply. So perhaps. Not fatally. But it's the psychology. Bombing Berlin at the height of the battle of Britain was probably military folly. But mentally priceless.
    It's described as a fuel depot, it's only 40k from Ukraine and on the main Moscow-Kharkiv road.

    Also

    "Since the alleged attack, a video has emerged online that appears to show long queues at a petrol station in the Belgorod region as Russian citizens are said to fear more Ukrainian strikes, driving some to stock up on essential goods.

    However, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said the incident would not affect the region's fuel supplies or prices for consumers.

    Roman Starovoit, governor of the neighbouring Kursk region, said its fuel supplies were sufficient to last several weeks and called on the population not to stockpile fuel." https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1589563/Russia-oil-depot-explosion-emergency-ukraine-latest-Vyacheslav-Gladkov-Belgorod-ont

    which is an invitation to go out and stockpile fuel if ever I heard one. And the Russians have been running out of fuel since about day 3 of the war already.
    So the thing about Putin is that if you think of him as a leader trying to strengthen Russia and restore the greatness of his nation then he seems like a total idiot, but if you think he's a dude who owns a load of oil company shares and wants the oil price to go up then everything he does makes sense.
    He's a petrochemical gangster.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    We're going to see a widening of the polls now IMHO

    One of the wild cards beyond the economy is the state of the NHS in England. My impression right now is that there are very serious problems.
    This is in Mark Drakeford's Wales

    Pensioner left 'moaning in agony' on pavement for 10 hours before ambulance came

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    That’s not good. Alas similar stories in England. My wife having to wait 12 months for just the booking appointment to get on the waitlist for a critical, life changing surgical procedure.

    Officially not waiting in the stats.
    I waited just over 36 months for a bi lateral hernia operation and before covid
    Not good. I fear this will be at least as long, 12-15 months just to get on the waiting list is not a good sign. Unfortunately the problem is nasty and she already is nearly broken by it.
    I am so sorry to hear that and hope your wife gets treated soon
    Thanks. Looks like I will have spend our savings and extend the mortgage a bit to conjure up a plan B.

    She can't go on living like this, which sounds like a throw away phrase - but I fear she really can't.
    Waiting lists are very lumpy at the moment as they are coming rapidly down as just a few stragglers waiting over a year now, and with outpatients reduced for much of last year due to redeployment, not many went on. There are a lot of referrals to be seen, but what the conversion rate for surgical specialities to surgical waiting list will be, we don't know yet.

    No one really knows whether 100% or 20% of the missing referrals from the last 2 years will materialise as there are few precedents. So waiting lists are a bit of a guessing game.

    Anything requiring an anaesthetist, theatre staff or a surgical bed is not going to be quick. These are all in short supply, with staff vacancies and burnout, and beds still occupied by covid patients.
    Thanks. It's a difficult situation. What bothers me is how politics make it more difficult. In my view and please correct me if I am wrong, it seems that the booking funnel is carefully managed to ensure that reportable stats are minimised. Games are being played to create a rose-tinted view. This leads to a vacuum of information for the patient and avoidable stress.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    Also: 1) it would be a pretty bloody daring raid, and 2) to what purpose? Is it going to hurt the Russian invasion? I don't know.
    Apparently it is the fuel re-supply. So perhaps. Not fatally. But it's the psychology. Bombing Berlin at the height of the battle of Britain was probably military folly. But mentally priceless.
    It's described as a fuel depot, it's only 40k from Ukraine and on the main Moscow-Kharkiv road.

    Also

    "Since the alleged attack, a video has emerged online that appears to show long queues at a petrol station in the Belgorod region as Russian citizens are said to fear more Ukrainian strikes, driving some to stock up on essential goods.

    However, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said the incident would not affect the region's fuel supplies or prices for consumers.

    Roman Starovoit, governor of the neighbouring Kursk region, said its fuel supplies were sufficient to last several weeks and called on the population not to stockpile fuel." https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1589563/Russia-oil-depot-explosion-emergency-ukraine-latest-Vyacheslav-Gladkov-Belgorod-ont

    which is an invitation to go out and stockpile fuel if ever I heard one. And the Russians have been running out of fuel since about day 3 of the war already.
    So the thing about Putin is that if you think of him as a leader trying to strengthen Russia and restore the greatness of his nation then he seems like a total idiot, but if you think he's a dude who owns a load of oil company shares and wants the oil price to go up then everything he does makes sense.
    He's a petrochemical gangster.
    Glorified gangster would be a pretty good description of rulers of a lot of states throughout history, but they are supposed to have slightly wider ambitions thesedays.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,015
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    Depends why he's sacked them, but even there some leeway should be given. Churchill fired Halifax for concluding Britain couldn't win the war and recommending peace talks, but he's not usually considered authoritarian for doing so.

    Has he actually had them arrested, or just dismissed? If the latter, maybe again we should remember most of the senior officers of the Russian Army and intelligence service are currently mysteriously absent from their posts.

    If of course he's arrested them for telling him facts about the current Russian position he doesn't like, that's altogether different.
    The ambassadors were sacked for ineffectiveness.
    It's unclear exactly why the generals were sacked, but the were said to have 'violated their oaths' , and named as 'traitors'.
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445232-zelensky-says-two-generals-who-turned-out-to-be-traitors-stripped-of-their-rank.html

    I don't think we'll know much more until they face trial - or don't.
    Zelensky appears to have happily devolved the management of fighting to the defence ministry and the armed forces, so doesn't thus far appear to be a nascent autocrat - and has referred several times to the responsibility of his successors - so I'm inclined for now to give him the benefit of the doubt.
    And I don't think Ukraine would tolerate an autocrat anyway.

    But it is an entirely legitimate concern.
    Rather it could be a legitimate concern one day. I've read this argument this morning and was a bit baffled at the idea a couple of guys being sacked or even arrested is prima facie a concerning development. I'd think a bit more of a trend or pattern, or at least reporting it was not justified, would be needed before it was presumed to be a sign of authoritarianism.

    As someone mentioned Ukraine was and is not perfect, it and Zelensky might and probably will do things we consider not ok, hes not Jesus. But going 'oooh, is this a sign of authoritarianism?' seems like it requires a bit more than a couple of sackings and arrests during a war. Macron's just sacked an intelligence head is that a sign of authoritarianism or is there a non sinister explanation?

    Maybe we pause the hunt until there's more to it.
    Alternatively all governments involved in existential wars are essentially authoritarian. The UK banged people up for selling frothy coffee after all.
    Quite right too. Black is the only way to take coffee.
    I wonder if Italian cafes were one of the few sources for really good coffee (of whatever composition) pre war? My paternal gran and grandad who were newly minted Edinburgh middle class in the 30s would make journeys to Crolla’s at the top of Leith Walk for coffee beans to grind their own coffee and other delicacies no doubt. I assume that all came to a shuddering halt in 1939, but sadly no one left alive to ask.
    1940 to be pedantic; yes, when Mr Churchill had the menfolk thrown into internment camps, like our local small burgh cafe - these last died in the Arandora Star (as I have mentioned here before) and so too did one of the Crollas. Though there were traditional non-Italian grocers which also roasted beans and ground coffee on demand - the smell of the coffee when going shopping with my parents is a (very early) childhood memory.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12492271.victor-crolla-visionary-behind-the-valvona-crolla-delicatessen/

    And something to trigger the PBTories: what happened to Mr Paolozzi the sculptor (statues, see?):

    https://www.scotsman.com/arts-and-culture/play-sparks-debate-over-whether-italians-deserve-apology-wartime-internment-1730439
    Their main argument against apologies for eg slavery or burning old women alive seems to be that these events are outwith living memory. This wouldn’t apply to the treatment of Italians during the war so I’m sure PBTories would be fine with it. 🙃
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,325
    geoffw said:

    "A number of reports this morning that the Russians have pulled back from NW of Kyiv, all the way to Belarus"

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509813153542160387

    Huge defeat for Russia.

    Reculer pour mieux sauter.

    It's all part of a brilliant plan. The Russians will retreat, to lure the Ukrainians into a decisive battle. On the outskirts of Moscow.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,910

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chris said:

    How bloody hilarious that the Russians have been trying to pound Ukraine into submission, without regard for the laws of war or common humanity, for the last five weeks, and yet the moment they're given the smallest dose of their own medicine they start whining like a startled child.

    There's a suggestion in the Guardian that the raid on the oil depot may actually have been a Russian mistake.
    Any evidence for this or just someone suggesting it?
    Only that Ukraine hasn't admitted it.
    Also: 1) it would be a pretty bloody daring raid, and 2) to what purpose? Is it going to hurt the Russian invasion? I don't know.
    Apparently it is the fuel re-supply. So perhaps. Not fatally. But it's the psychology. Bombing Berlin at the height of the battle of Britain was probably military folly. But mentally priceless.
    It's described as a fuel depot, it's only 40k from Ukraine and on the main Moscow-Kharkiv road.

    Also

    "Since the alleged attack, a video has emerged online that appears to show long queues at a petrol station in the Belgorod region as Russian citizens are said to fear more Ukrainian strikes, driving some to stock up on essential goods.

    However, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said the incident would not affect the region's fuel supplies or prices for consumers.

    Roman Starovoit, governor of the neighbouring Kursk region, said its fuel supplies were sufficient to last several weeks and called on the population not to stockpile fuel." https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1589563/Russia-oil-depot-explosion-emergency-ukraine-latest-Vyacheslav-Gladkov-Belgorod-ont

    which is an invitation to go out and stockpile fuel if ever I heard one. And the Russians have been running out of fuel since about day 3 of the war already.
    So the thing about Putin is that if you think of him as a leader trying to strengthen Russia and restore the greatness of his nation then he seems like a total idiot, but if you think he's a dude who owns a load of oil company shares and wants the oil price to go up then everything he does makes sense.
    He's a petrochemical gangster.
    Sounds like a Vanilla Ice lyric.
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    kle4 said:

    It's good to see everyone of influence now is on the same page on the important stuff, even as they can (and should) still disagree on so many other policy matters.

    David Lammy: "For too long, parts of the left, even some members of my own party, falsely divided the world into two camps. America and the West on one side, and their victims on the other. This has never been right, but this view has now been exposed for all to see as a farce."

    https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1509544535159889926

    IF you want to know Rishi Sunak's career prospects, check out the front cover of Private Eye.
  • Options
    Why even report COVID cases anymore, COVID is over
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's suggested that household energy costs are going up towards £3000 pa. While this is terrible it may be worth bearing in mind proportionality. 10 fags, and a single daily pint in a pub will set you back about £3250 pa.

    Fags are a niche luxury purchase these days. In my student days a bottle of wine cost about 2 packets of cigarettes. That has now inverted, 2 bottles of drinkable wine = 20 B&H. even quite rich smokers smoke smuggled rolling tobacco if they smoke at all.
    It's my single biggest line of personal expenditure and by quite a long way. A great pity I can afford it, in a sense.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    Depends why he's sacked them, but even there some leeway should be given. Churchill fired Halifax for concluding Britain couldn't win the war and recommending peace talks, but he's not usually considered authoritarian for doing so.

    Has he actually had them arrested, or just dismissed? If the latter, maybe again we should remember most of the senior officers of the Russian Army and intelligence service are currently mysteriously absent from their posts.

    If of course he's arrested them for telling him facts about the current Russian position he doesn't like, that's altogether different.
    The ambassadors were sacked for ineffectiveness.
    It's unclear exactly why the generals were sacked, but the were said to have 'violated their oaths' , and named as 'traitors'.
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445232-zelensky-says-two-generals-who-turned-out-to-be-traitors-stripped-of-their-rank.html

    I don't think we'll know much more until they face trial - or don't.
    Zelensky appears to have happily devolved the management of fighting to the defence ministry and the armed forces, so doesn't thus far appear to be a nascent autocrat - and has referred several times to the responsibility of his successors - so I'm inclined for now to give him the benefit of the doubt.
    And I don't think Ukraine would tolerate an autocrat anyway.

    But it is an entirely legitimate concern.
    Rather it could be a legitimate concern one day. I've read this argument this morning and was a bit baffled at the idea a couple of guys being sacked or even arrested is prima facie a concerning development. I'd think a bit more of a trend or pattern, or at least reporting it was not justified, would be needed before it was presumed to be a sign of authoritarianism.

    As someone mentioned Ukraine was and is not perfect, it and Zelensky might and probably will do things we consider not ok, hes not Jesus. But going 'oooh, is this a sign of authoritarianism?' seems like it requires a bit more than a couple of sackings and arrests during a war. Macron's just sacked an intelligence head is that a sign of authoritarianism or is there a non sinister explanation?

    Maybe we pause the hunt until there's more to it.
    Alternatively all governments involved in existential wars are essentially authoritarian. The UK banged people up for selling frothy coffee after all.
    Quite right too. Black is the only way to take coffee.
    I wonder if Italian cafes were one of the few sources for really good coffee (of whatever composition) pre war? My paternal gran and grandad who were newly minted Edinburgh middle class in the 30s would make journeys to Crolla’s at the top of Leith Walk for coffee beans to grind their own coffee and other delicacies no doubt. I assume that all came to a shuddering halt in 1939, but sadly no one left alive to ask.
    1940 to be pedantic; yes, when Mr Churchill had the menfolk thrown into internment camps, like our local small burgh cafe - these last died in the Arandora Star (as I have mentioned here before) and so too did one of the Crollas. Though there were traditional non-Italian grocers which also roasted beans and ground coffee on demand - the smell of the coffee when going shopping with my parents is a (very early) childhood memory.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12492271.victor-crolla-visionary-behind-the-valvona-crolla-delicatessen/

    And something to trigger the PBTories: what happened to Mr Paolozzi the sculptor (statues, see?):

    https://www.scotsman.com/arts-and-culture/play-sparks-debate-over-whether-italians-deserve-apology-wartime-internment-1730439
    Their main argument against apologies for eg slavery or burning old women alive seems to be that these events are outwith living memory. This wouldn’t apply to the treatment of Italians during the war so I’m sure PBTories would be fine with it. 🙃
    The Michael Caine If you kill us speech to the Italians in Italian Job doesn't look too good in light of that then rather recent history
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,182
    RU moaning that the Ukr has had the effrontery to attack something inside Russian border seems a bit "they don't like it up 'em, sir" from Dad's Army.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's suggested that household energy costs are going up towards £3000 pa. While this is terrible it may be worth bearing in mind proportionality. 10 fags, and a single daily pint in a pub will set you back about £3250 pa.

    Fags are a niche luxury purchase these days. In my student days a bottle of wine cost about 2 packets of cigarettes. That has now inverted, 2 bottles of drinkable wine = 20 B&H. even quite rich smokers smoke smuggled rolling tobacco if they smoke at all.
    It's my single biggest line of personal expenditure and by quite a long way. A great pity I can afford it, in a sense.
    Well, please stop. If I can anyone can.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937

    geoffw said:

    "A number of reports this morning that the Russians have pulled back from NW of Kyiv, all the way to Belarus"

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509813153542160387

    Huge defeat for Russia.

    Reculer pour mieux sauter.

    It's all part of a brilliant plan. The Russians will retreat, to lure the Ukrainians into a decisive battle. On the outskirts of Moscow.
    *If* true, and not a temporary feint, how best can Ukraine defend the frontier and not tie down tens of thousands of troops and many tanks? Destroy railway lines and roads at the border? Make other areas hard to travel through in the dry seasons?

    Incidentally, how well do 'traditional' mines work with a thick snow covering in winter? I guess the non-magnetic/pressure ones don't work very well.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,466
    edited April 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Taz said:

    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    In Ukraine. Not sure what to make of this. Legitimate hunt for infiltrators, or a worrying bit of authoritarianism?

    Zelenskyy fires 2 senior members of national security on the ground.
    Andriy Naumov- former head SBU main dept of internal security
    Serhiy Kryvoruchko-former head of SBU in Kherson Oblast
    "I do not have time to deal with all the traitors but they will gradually all be punished"

    https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1509731870677868547?t=C0XWMkhKWaNnoMnOgu0s4Q&s=19

    He also fired two ambassadors, to Georgia and Morocco.

    They are fighting a defensive war. They are under siege and the enemy has made multiple attempts to kill him. No other country has seriously come to their rescue. They have been left alone to fight one of the worlds biggest armies.

    There is pressure to concede to the enemy in 'peace' talks. Factionalism and paranoia is inevitable.
    It isn't even worth seriously questioning, in my view.

    To suggest that Zelensky is an authoritarian is to peddle a Russian talking point.
    So any criticism of Zelensky is playing the Russians game. Okay.

    We are moving into the realms of North Korean levels of deference.
    Not really. You can observe what is going on without playing in to the 'two sides' analysis.

    Obviously one of the aims of Russian propoganda is to undermine Zelensky and western support for him.
    The same can be said the other way.

    Of course the Russians are the bad guys here and the Ukrainians on the side of right but that does not mean we should simply ignore any concerns we have with Zelenskyy and his govt.

    Calling it out is not being a shill for Putin
    Depends why he's sacked them, but even there some leeway should be given. Churchill fired Halifax for concluding Britain couldn't win the war and recommending peace talks, but he's not usually considered authoritarian for doing so.

    Has he actually had them arrested, or just dismissed? If the latter, maybe again we should remember most of the senior officers of the Russian Army and intelligence service are currently mysteriously absent from their posts.

    If of course he's arrested them for telling him facts about the current Russian position he doesn't like, that's altogether different.
    The ambassadors were sacked for ineffectiveness.
    It's unclear exactly why the generals were sacked, but the were said to have 'violated their oaths' , and named as 'traitors'.
    https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445232-zelensky-says-two-generals-who-turned-out-to-be-traitors-stripped-of-their-rank.html

    I don't think we'll know much more until they face trial - or don't.
    Zelensky appears to have happily devolved the management of fighting to the defence ministry and the armed forces, so doesn't thus far appear to be a nascent autocrat - and has referred several times to the responsibility of his successors - so I'm inclined for now to give him the benefit of the doubt.
    And I don't think Ukraine would tolerate an autocrat anyway.

    But it is an entirely legitimate concern.
    Rather it could be a legitimate concern one day. I've read this argument this morning and was a bit baffled at the idea a couple of guys being sacked or even arrested is prima facie a concerning development. I'd think a bit more of a trend or pattern, or at least reporting it was not justified, would be needed before it was presumed to be a sign of authoritarianism.

    As someone mentioned Ukraine was and is not perfect, it and Zelensky might and probably will do things we consider not ok, hes not Jesus. But going 'oooh, is this a sign of authoritarianism?' seems like it requires a bit more than a couple of sackings and arrests during a war. Macron's just sacked an intelligence head is that a sign of authoritarianism or is there a non sinister explanation?

    Maybe we pause the hunt until there's more to it.
    Alternatively all governments involved in existential wars are essentially authoritarian. The UK banged people up for selling frothy coffee after all.
    Quite right too. Black is the only way to take coffee.
    I wonder if Italian cafes were one of the few sources for really good coffee (of whatever composition) pre war? My paternal gran and grandad who were newly minted Edinburgh middle class in the 30s would make journeys to Crolla’s at the top of Leith Walk for coffee beans to grind their own coffee and other delicacies no doubt. I assume that all came to a shuddering halt in 1939, but sadly no one left alive to ask.
    1940 to be pedantic; yes, when Mr Churchill had the menfolk thrown into internment camps, like our local small burgh cafe - these last died in the Arandora Star (as I have mentioned here before) and so too did one of the Crollas. Though there were traditional non-Italian grocers which also roasted beans and ground coffee on demand - the smell of the coffee when going shopping with my parents is a (very early) childhood memory.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12492271.victor-crolla-visionary-behind-the-valvona-crolla-delicatessen/

    And something to trigger the PBTories: what happened to Mr Paolozzi the sculptor (statues, see?):

    https://www.scotsman.com/arts-and-culture/play-sparks-debate-over-whether-italians-deserve-apology-wartime-internment-1730439
    Interesting piece - there was a good doc about it on R4 in 2020.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00szn9q

    The apology-trolling for the sinking of the Arandora Star (taking internees to Oz in 1940) or for internment is a bit much. That looks like a PR stunt.

    Who is expected to apologise?

    The Italian Govt for Mussolini declaring war on the UK in 1940?
    The Glaswegian hate-mob who smashed up the coffee-shop?
    The UK Govt the for precautionary internment of some Italians, after Italy allied with Germany, and Mussolini declared war?
    The German Govt for Hitler's policy of unrestricted submarine warfare in violation of International Treaties (to which I am not totally clear whether Germany was a signatory - Italy was but had previously violated), which led to the deportation passenger liner being sunk?
    The Kriegsmarine for sinking it?
    Person or persons unknown?

    I don't think even Sturgeon will dive into that one.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162

    kle4 said:

    It's good to see everyone of influence now is on the same page on the important stuff, even as they can (and should) still disagree on so many other policy matters.

    David Lammy: "For too long, parts of the left, even some members of my own party, falsely divided the world into two camps. America and the West on one side, and their victims on the other. This has never been right, but this view has now been exposed for all to see as a farce."

    https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1509544535159889926

    Says the man who spat his dummy out about "white saviours" Stacey Dooley, where he literally did that, West vs "victims".
    He didn't spit his dummy out. He made a point that is interesting to consider, agree or not.
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