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Only hours to go till the end of month and still no CON poll lead – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,614
    (continued)

    3. The virus in the wild exhibits unusual adaptations at the Furin Cleavage Site. The Wuhan lab applied to the NIH for permission (and funding) to do exactly this research, into the FCS

    "Last September, EcoHealth Alliance’s grant proposal to DARPA was leaked to DRASTIC, a loosely affiliated global group of sleuths—ranging from professional scientists to amateur data enthusiasts—dedicated to investigating the origins of COVID-19. From the 75-page proposal, a striking detail stood out: a plan to examine SARS-like bat coronaviruses for furin cleavage sites and possibly insert new ones that would enable them to infect human cells."

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/the-virus-hunting-nonprofit-at-the-center-of-the-lab-leak-controversy

    So the lab in Borough Station was the only lab in the world doing very specific engineering on the FCS of a novel bat coronavirus - trying to make it more pathogenic - and it was also part of the only lab complex, in the world, doing any kind of research on novel bat cornaoviruses. Then, in 2019, just after the dodgy lab move to Borough Station, where they continue to - uniquely in the word - experiment on novel bat coronaviruses with gain-of-function modulations at the Furin Cleavage Site, a novel bat coronavirus with new, extra pathogenic evolutions at the Furin Cleavage Site appears 2 minutes walk away in.... Borough Market
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,135
    edited March 2022
    Leon said:

    For @FF43 and @kjh


    Actually, let's deconstruct your absurd twaddle, @FF43

    "The equivalent in London would be an outbreak in Borough Market must be due to a leak from a lab in Uxbridge."

    1. The closest ancillary outpost of the Wuhan Institute of Virology was their BSL2 (low safety standard) laboratory at the Wuhan CDC, about 280 metres from the market


    "WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, MSc, responded: “As far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table. We have not yet found the source of the virus and must continue to follow the science and leave no stone unturned as we do.”

    Notably, the report includes a hitherto unpublished piece of relevant information: “The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location NEAR THE HUANAN MARKET. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.”"

    So in fact the equivalent in London would be a viral outbreak occurring at Borough Market and the virus lab being slightly to the left of, um, Borough Station


    https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210514/questions-remain-after-who-team-visits-wuhan-looking-for-answers-to-sarscov2

    2. This (insecure) lab near Borough Station is the only lab in the world working on making novel bat coronaviruses even more dangerous to mankind (killer coronaviruses!), and then we get an outbreak of a weirdly dangerous novel bat coronavirus 280 metres away at... Borough Market


    "Unearthed video of Peter Daszak Describing ‘Chinese Colleagues’ Developing ‘Killer’ Coronaviruses"


    https://twitter.com/chuckghunter/status/1407467151544496131?s=20&t=HNWcnqG88coS11GYFQbyhg

    So the lab by Borough Station was deliberately trying to make these novel bat coronaviruses into "killers", and then a killer new bat coronavirus appears at Borough Market...

    Sorry: I thought it was the Chinese Disease Center (CDC) that was 280 meters away, not the Wuhan Institute of virology labs.

    Not being awkward - that's just my recollection. That we sparred about. And then I conceded you were correct.

    But it was the CDC that we were looking at.
  • Options

    i - "Ex Cabinet minister predicts Sunak's chances are over... whoosh, if you have shares in Sunak, sell them now"

    Might be worth looking at the market for next Chancellor as Boris may feel he can demote Rishi at next reshuffle
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    There was definitely a cover-up. It was probably a lab leak.


    BREAKING: my @VanityFair investigation into @EcoHealthNYC, @NIAIDNews transparency and debate over #COVID19 origins is live. Vanity Fair obtained over 100,000 internal EcoHealth Alliance documents including meeting minutes, internal emails, reports. vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/t… /1

    https://twitter.com/katherineeban/status/1509578742577958923?s=21&t=_SNJM-c2cEPbdQpnxSn9fA

    Wait:

    I thought it was definitely a lab leak, and probably an engineered virus.
    Aslan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    There was definitely a cover-up. It was probably a lab leak.


    BREAKING: my @VanityFair investigation into @EcoHealthNYC, @NIAIDNews transparency and debate over #COVID19 origins is live. Vanity Fair obtained over 100,000 internal EcoHealth Alliance documents including meeting minutes, internal emails, reports. vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/t… /1

    https://twitter.com/katherineeban/status/1509578742577958923?s=21&t=_SNJM-c2cEPbdQpnxSn9fA

    Wait:

    I thought it was definitely a lab leak, and probably an engineered virus.
    Jokes aside, the latest evidence is almost certainly that it came from the wet market. Western scientists confirmed the swabs from the different stalls in the wet market tell a very cohesive story.


    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/03/1083751272/striking-new-evidence-points-to-seafood-market-in-wuhan-as-pandemic-origin-point
    It’s nothing of the sort. That evidence is a non peer reviewed pre print which has been fiercely criticised and is directly contradicted by the Chinese themselves. Sorry
    Can you link your citations for this?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031

    BigRich said:

    ORYX is now up to 350 Russian tanks.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    This feels like the rate of tanks destroyed per day is increasing. but I havet been keeping track so don't know for sure. there may be innocent reasons e.g. he has so many he is now prioritising Tanks. But, its still good to see.

    I think there's an element that the Ukrainian army is now advancing and retaking territory previously occupied by the Russians, and so you have tanks that may have been destroyed a while ago, but are only now being photographed so that they will be counted.
    Oryx had also said that he had a big backlog so some of that might be feeding through now.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,135
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,909
    Roger said:

    Just a bit of fun........Boris Johnson undressed

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2cMFfCjsO4

    Roger said:

    Just a bit of fun........Boris Johnson undressed

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2cMFfCjsO4

    Not enough nudity
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,473

    i - "Ex Cabinet minister predicts Sunak's chances are over... whoosh, if you have shares in Sunak, sell them now"

    Might be worth looking at the market for next Chancellor as Boris may feel he can demote Rishi at next reshuffle
    And hand the poisoned cost of living disaster to someone else pecking at Johnson's ankles.

    Truss for CoE?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,473
    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,913
    Jonathan said:
    Indeed. A better comparison would be with an oligarch.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    rcs1000 said:

    Japanese news digest:

    ⏩ Japan to again designate Russian-held Kuril islands as illegally occupied

    ⏩ Japan lists 7 items for supply action over current Russia dependence


    https://twitter.com/kyodo_english/status/1509411694711566343

    Japan is the major purchaser of LNG from Sakhalin-2, and had (previously at least) declined to halt imports. I would hope that they will put pressure on the Russian government by indicating that this will stop...

    ...but I don't think it's happened yet.
    It's interesting that they are getting tough on the islands. Sensing weakness I presume.
    One curios thing, the population of one of the Russian occupied islands is that its mostly ethnically Ukraine. Stalin wanted to populates if at the same time he wanted to diloot Ukraine of Ukrainians so he moved them there. I suspect that they don't speak Ukrainian or necessary identify as Ukraine any more but still.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,688
    Leon said:

    For @FF43 and @kjh


    Actually, let's deconstruct your absurd twaddle, @FF43

    "The equivalent in London would be an outbreak in Borough Market must be due to a leak from a lab in Uxbridge."

    1. The closest ancillary outpost of the Wuhan Institute of Virology was their BSL2 (low safety standard) laboratory at the Wuhan CDC, about 280 metres from the market


    "WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, MSc, responded: “As far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table. We have not yet found the source of the virus and must continue to follow the science and leave no stone unturned as we do.”

    Notably, the report includes a hitherto unpublished piece of relevant information: “The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location NEAR THE HUANAN MARKET. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.”"

    So in fact the equivalent in London would be a viral outbreak occurring at Borough Market and the virus lab being slightly to the left of, um, Borough Station


    https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210514/questions-remain-after-who-team-visits-wuhan-looking-for-answers-to-sarscov2

    2. This (insecure) lab near Borough Station is the only lab in the world working on making novel bat coronaviruses even more dangerous to mankind (killer coronaviruses!), and then we get an outbreak of a weirdly dangerous novel bat coronavirus 280 metres away at... Borough Market


    "Unearthed video of Peter Daszak Describing ‘Chinese Colleagues’ Developing ‘Killer’ Coronaviruses"


    https://twitter.com/chuckghunter/status/1407467151544496131?s=20&t=HNWcnqG88coS11GYFQbyhg

    So the lab by Borough Station was deliberately trying to make these novel bat coronaviruses into "killers", and then a killer new bat coronavirus appears at Borough Market...

    I think it is very rude to accuse @FF43 of absurd twaddle. He put forward a very coherent argument and also acknowledged it could be a lab leak, to which you have now responded with evidence, whereas before you didn't.

    We could do with less dogma.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245
    Leon said:

    (continued)

    3. The virus in the wild exhibits unusual adaptations at the Furin Cleavage Site. The Wuhan lab applied to the NIH for permission (and funding) to do exactly this research, into the FCS

    "Last September, EcoHealth Alliance’s grant proposal to DARPA was leaked to DRASTIC, a loosely affiliated global group of sleuths—ranging from professional scientists to amateur data enthusiasts—dedicated to investigating the origins of COVID-19. From the 75-page proposal, a striking detail stood out: a plan to examine SARS-like bat coronaviruses for furin cleavage sites and possibly insert new ones that would enable them to infect human cells."

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/the-virus-hunting-nonprofit-at-the-center-of-the-lab-leak-controversy

    So the lab in Borough Station was the only lab in the world doing very specific engineering on the FCS of a novel bat coronavirus - trying to make it more pathogenic - and it was also part of the only lab complex, in the world, doing any kind of research on novel bat cornaoviruses. Then, in 2019, just after the dodgy lab move to Borough Station, where they continue to - uniquely in the word - experiment on novel bat coronaviruses with gain-of-function modulations at the Furin Cleavage Site, a novel bat coronavirus with new, extra pathogenic evolutions at the Furin Cleavage Site appears 2 minutes walk away in.... Borough Market

    Millions of deaths from a human made disaster, accentuated by the communist party keeping quiet to ensure it seeded globally once it was out in the open in China. And not a sausage of a sanction.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited March 2022
    The Inbetweeners do war again..

    Another video of Chechen Rosgvardia troops shooting without looking through their sights. Typically, you provide suppression before and while you fire an RPG, but they decided to do the opposite.

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1509619887609634818?s=20&t=9CdrjDkyWo9142wt8jJQIw

    ----

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1508993878728351745?s=20&t=r0ByAr44P76WrvKo7UgbUw
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245

    i - "Ex Cabinet minister predicts Sunak's chances are over... whoosh, if you have shares in Sunak, sell them now"

    Might be worth looking at the market for next Chancellor as Boris may feel he can demote Rishi at next reshuffle
    One wonders whether the Gover is seeing the field clearing for another shot at the big job (via No 11)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    For @FF43 and @kjh


    Actually, let's deconstruct your absurd twaddle, @FF43

    "The equivalent in London would be an outbreak in Borough Market must be due to a leak from a lab in Uxbridge."

    1. The closest ancillary outpost of the Wuhan Institute of Virology was their BSL2 (low safety standard) laboratory at the Wuhan CDC, about 280 metres from the market


    "WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, MSc, responded: “As far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table. We have not yet found the source of the virus and must continue to follow the science and leave no stone unturned as we do.”

    Notably, the report includes a hitherto unpublished piece of relevant information: “The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location NEAR THE HUANAN MARKET. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.”"

    So in fact the equivalent in London would be a viral outbreak occurring at Borough Market and the virus lab being slightly to the left of, um, Borough Station


    https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210514/questions-remain-after-who-team-visits-wuhan-looking-for-answers-to-sarscov2

    2. This (insecure) lab near Borough Station is the only lab in the world working on making novel bat coronaviruses even more dangerous to mankind (killer coronaviruses!), and then we get an outbreak of a weirdly dangerous novel bat coronavirus 280 metres away at... Borough Market


    "Unearthed video of Peter Daszak Describing ‘Chinese Colleagues’ Developing ‘Killer’ Coronaviruses"


    https://twitter.com/chuckghunter/status/1407467151544496131?s=20&t=HNWcnqG88coS11GYFQbyhg

    So the lab by Borough Station was deliberately trying to make these novel bat coronaviruses into "killers", and then a killer new bat coronavirus appears at Borough Market...

    Sorry: I thought it was the Chinese Disease Center (CDC) that was 280 meters away, not the Wuhan Institute of virology labs.

    Not being awkward - that's just my recollection. That we sparred about. And then I conceded you were correct.

    But it was the CDC that we were looking at.
    Yes, I remember!

    It is accepted by many that the CDC was also likely doing continuing research into bat coronaviruses - as part of the whole scientific effort - hence the notable interest of WHO in the CDC's whereabouts, in its report

    When I say "accepted" I mean: that is the consensus, but we cannot be sure because the Chinese have silenced everyone, and the CDC did not report anything after 2013


    "Although the top-secure laboratory at Wuhan's Institute of Virology has received the most attention, according to the head of WHO's experts, there is also reason to look at the other, which is run by the Chinese health authorities (CDC).

    - Their last publication about working with bats was from 2013, but that does not mean that they have not worked with bats since. As far as we understand, they work mostly with parasites, and not so much with viruses, so they have worked with parasites from bats, says Peter Embarek."

    .https://nyheder-tv2-dk.translate.goog/udland/2021-08-12-ansat-paa-laboratorie-i-wuhan-kan-vaere-smittet-af-flagermus-som-den-foerste-siger?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB

    Embarek is the Danish WHO dude
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,612
    stodge said:

    Two days out and about for work this week. Anecdotal evidence - the "return to desks" is still happening but it's incredibly patchy. I've travelled on tubes which were almost as busy as pre-Covid and incredibly quiet ones which should be busy.

    At 5pm this afternoon, Bank station was quiet and King William Street almost deserted yet this morning the Jubilee was busy - interestingly, more people getting on at Canary Wharf than getting off (easy to forget it's not just offices there now).

    The passenger transport numbers confirm tube usage settling at about two thirds of pre-Covid during the week but that's varied and nuanced. The early tubes remain busy but by 8am, certainly at East Ham, the platform is much quieter confirming the view the administrative workers and professionals are still ensconced at home. Another indicator (of sorts) is what people are wearing - the collar and tie remains in a minority, it's other workers (construction and retail) are out and about.

    Train use picked up to 75-80% a couple of weeks ago but has settled back nearer 70-75% - the trains coming in to Waterloo are busy but not packed as they once were. For all the propaganda and platitudes from politicians, business leaders and property developers, the truth remains the hybrid world of part-office, part-home working is here to stay.

    Leisure traffic is a very different story - those with time and money are out using both. It will be interesting to see if the hot to living standards has an impact on leisure traffic - I suspect not, at least in the short term.

    One side effect of the Ukraine war has been the cutting of the traditional summer cruises to the Baltic and St Petersburg. Some companies have curtailed the voyages back to just Scandinavia while others have moves ships to other routes in the Med which has in turn produced some really competitive deals.

    The other noticeable thing is that Monday and Friday feel much quieter than midweek. Tuesday to Thursday are busy (standing, but not crushed) on what will be the Elizabeth Line, but the first and last day of the week really aren't.

    If the endpoint of all this is six rush hours a week instead of ten, that feels like a problem for those who pay for transport infrastructure.
  • Options
    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 787

    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
    True, and tbf I've often thought that Labour need to ditch their brand and baggage but I do really wonder how you manage it without appearing cynical. Even though it was 30 years ago (though, really only 12 years ago), there's no way a Labour leader could embark on a centrist Labour rebrand without having a young Tony Blair featuring in the news reels. Maybe that's a good thing, though my understanding is he remains pretty unpopular (my own view on the man is mixed).
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,473
    Pat McFadden says UK only country in G7 that is raising tax during this crisis. Newsnight.



  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,612
    moonshine said:

    i - "Ex Cabinet minister predicts Sunak's chances are over... whoosh, if you have shares in Sunak, sell them now"

    Might be worth looking at the market for next Chancellor as Boris may feel he can demote Rishi at next reshuffle
    One wonders whether the Gover is seeing the field clearing for another shot at the big job (via No 11)
    If the post-Boris PM ends up with the job of leading the lemmings over the cliff, they (and we) could do a lot worse than Gove.

    He loses in 2024, natch, but he does give the impression of wanting to improve things for people, even if he's not very good at it. That puts him several notches above some members of the Cabinet, for whom it's all some bizzaro game of holding on to power for the sake of it.

    He's not going to get another chance, and could be an excellent Old Pope for the ambitious Young Cardinals.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,614
    Actually, I think PB has solved the Origins of Covid


    It came from the Wuhan CDC (which we know was doing research, like other Wuhan labs, into novel bat coronaviruses). It escaped during their move to a new site near the Huanan Wet Market: when a lab moves, like this, the danger is real - as when you move house, you will inevitably get scuffs on the grand piano

    It escaped during the move of the CDC - in the autumn of 2019. It quickly went to the Huanan market, as it would as everyone in central Wuhan goes there (Chinese markets are great fun and very popular). The market acted as a super-spreader of an engineered bat coronavirus, unfortunately designed (with the best of intentions) to be more pathogenic to humans

    That's it. That explains pretty much everything. The coincidences, the early clusters by the market, the onwards evolution of something genuinely nasty, the FCS thing

    Sorted.

    Nice work, everyone
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    For @FF43 and @kjh


    Actually, let's deconstruct your absurd twaddle, @FF43

    "The equivalent in London would be an outbreak in Borough Market must be due to a leak from a lab in Uxbridge."

    1. The closest ancillary outpost of the Wuhan Institute of Virology was their BSL2 (low safety standard) laboratory at the Wuhan CDC, about 280 metres from the market


    "WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, MSc, responded: “As far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table. We have not yet found the source of the virus and must continue to follow the science and leave no stone unturned as we do.”

    Notably, the report includes a hitherto unpublished piece of relevant information: “The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location NEAR THE HUANAN MARKET. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.”"

    So in fact the equivalent in London would be a viral outbreak occurring at Borough Market and the virus lab being slightly to the left of, um, Borough Station


    https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210514/questions-remain-after-who-team-visits-wuhan-looking-for-answers-to-sarscov2

    2. This (insecure) lab near Borough Station is the only lab in the world working on making novel bat coronaviruses even more dangerous to mankind (killer coronaviruses!), and then we get an outbreak of a weirdly dangerous novel bat coronavirus 280 metres away at... Borough Market


    "Unearthed video of Peter Daszak Describing ‘Chinese Colleagues’ Developing ‘Killer’ Coronaviruses"


    https://twitter.com/chuckghunter/status/1407467151544496131?s=20&t=HNWcnqG88coS11GYFQbyhg

    So the lab by Borough Station was deliberately trying to make these novel bat coronaviruses into "killers", and then a killer new bat coronavirus appears at Borough Market...

    Sorry: I thought it was the Chinese Disease Center (CDC) that was 280 meters away, not the Wuhan Institute of virology labs.

    Not being awkward - that's just my recollection. That we sparred about. And then I conceded you were correct.

    But it was the CDC that we were looking at.
    If it's the place we discussed before, it's a city district level centre whose core job is public health policy at the grunt level dealing with drug addiction, vaccine campaigns etc. Now could they have been doing freelance virology research? Maybe, and if so there won't be proper controls. But it feels like a reach. We start with a theory and try out other explanations when the first ones don't quite work.

    The Wuhan Institute of Virology is where you would expect a leak if there was one. It's a national level lab that is known to do this kind of research.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,529
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    stodge said:

    Two days out and about for work this week. Anecdotal evidence - the "return to desks" is still happening but it's incredibly patchy. I've travelled on tubes which were almost as busy as pre-Covid and incredibly quiet ones which should be busy.

    At 5pm this afternoon, Bank station was quiet and King William Street almost deserted yet this morning the Jubilee was busy - interestingly, more people getting on at Canary Wharf than getting off (easy to forget it's not just offices there now).

    The passenger transport numbers confirm tube usage settling at about two thirds of pre-Covid during the week but that's varied and nuanced. The early tubes remain busy but by 8am, certainly at East Ham, the platform is much quieter confirming the view the administrative workers and professionals are still ensconced at home. Another indicator (of sorts) is what people are wearing - the collar and tie remains in a minority, it's other workers (construction and retail) are out and about.

    Train use picked up to 75-80% a couple of weeks ago but has settled back nearer 70-75% - the trains coming in to Waterloo are busy but not packed as they once were. For all the propaganda and platitudes from politicians, business leaders and property developers, the truth remains the hybrid world of part-office, part-home working is here to stay.

    Leisure traffic is a very different story - those with time and money are out using both. It will be interesting to see if the hot to living standards has an impact on leisure traffic - I suspect not, at least in the short term.

    One side effect of the Ukraine war has been the cutting of the traditional summer cruises to the Baltic and St Petersburg. Some companies have curtailed the voyages back to just Scandinavia while others have moves ships to other routes in the Med which has in turn produced some really competitive deals.

    Some of these effects are going to be permanent. I can't see long distance commuting returning to where it was for office based work, let alone long distance travel for business meetings. The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of technology that allows of working from home and business meetings from multiple remote locations, has demonstrated its viability for businesses, and may have persuaded employees that it's preferable for the daily slog, for at least part of the week.

    It's ironic and unfortunate that the final go ahead was given to the London-Manchester HS2 route just two months before the first lockdown.
    No it wasn't.

    We need all of HS2 to provide the capacity we need to shift freight onto the rail network. And that's before the completely uncalculated improvements occur as commuter services start to run on the old main line routes which were binned 50+ years ago.
    Not just freight.
    Greater Manchester and its hinterland could have a local rail network with 15 minute frequencies the norm for suburban stations. But the network also has to accommodate fast trains. And fast trains eat paths. You need to leave much longer gaps between the slow trains to fit a fast train in.
    If you could take out the London, Liverpool, Leeds, Sheffield and Scotland* trains, the local setvice you could have could be transformed. And high frequencies drive up patronage more than any other single intervention. And importantly drive up non-commute patronage at non-peak times - when traditionally trains carry around a lot of empty air.
    *via the Northern Chord - which also relieves the Castlefield Corridor, the most congested stretch of rail in the North.
    Quite easy to put freight and local services on the same network as they go at similar average speeds.
    ...warming to a theme now...
    So why does this represent a good investment for taxpayers money? Put aside the business case for now, which deals only with the benefits gained by getting from A to B faster: the benefits the exchequer gets from investment in high speed rail is better performing cities with higher productivity. That's great for Greater Manchester (in my case), but it's also great for, say Surrey, because at present GM is a net drain on the exchequer, and has to be cross-subsidised by the likes of Surrey (which already has a very good local rail network). Put in place this sort of infrastructure, and GM becomes a net contributor to the exchequer, and no longer needs cross-subsidy.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,614
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    For @FF43 and @kjh


    Actually, let's deconstruct your absurd twaddle, @FF43

    "The equivalent in London would be an outbreak in Borough Market must be due to a leak from a lab in Uxbridge."

    1. The closest ancillary outpost of the Wuhan Institute of Virology was their BSL2 (low safety standard) laboratory at the Wuhan CDC, about 280 metres from the market


    "WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, MSc, responded: “As far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table. We have not yet found the source of the virus and must continue to follow the science and leave no stone unturned as we do.”

    Notably, the report includes a hitherto unpublished piece of relevant information: “The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location NEAR THE HUANAN MARKET. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.”"

    So in fact the equivalent in London would be a viral outbreak occurring at Borough Market and the virus lab being slightly to the left of, um, Borough Station


    https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210514/questions-remain-after-who-team-visits-wuhan-looking-for-answers-to-sarscov2

    2. This (insecure) lab near Borough Station is the only lab in the world working on making novel bat coronaviruses even more dangerous to mankind (killer coronaviruses!), and then we get an outbreak of a weirdly dangerous novel bat coronavirus 280 metres away at... Borough Market


    "Unearthed video of Peter Daszak Describing ‘Chinese Colleagues’ Developing ‘Killer’ Coronaviruses"


    https://twitter.com/chuckghunter/status/1407467151544496131?s=20&t=HNWcnqG88coS11GYFQbyhg

    So the lab by Borough Station was deliberately trying to make these novel bat coronaviruses into "killers", and then a killer new bat coronavirus appears at Borough Market...

    Sorry: I thought it was the Chinese Disease Center (CDC) that was 280 meters away, not the Wuhan Institute of virology labs.

    Not being awkward - that's just my recollection. That we sparred about. And then I conceded you were correct.

    But it was the CDC that we were looking at.
    If it's the place we discussed before, it's a city district level centre whose core job is public health policy at the grunt level dealing with drug addiction, vaccine campaigns etc. Now could they have been doing freelance virology research? Maybe, and if so there won't be proper controls. But it feels like a reach. We start with a theory and try out other explanations when the first ones don't quite work.

    The Wuhan Institute of Virology is where you would expect a leak if there was one. It's a national level lab that is known to do this kind of research.
    The Danish head of WHO

    "Although the top-secure laboratory at Wuhan's Institute of Virology has received the most attention, according to the head of WHO's experts, there is also reason to look at the other, which is run by the Chinese health authorities (CDC).

    - Their last publication about working with bats was from 2013, but that does not mean that they have not worked with bats since. As far as we understand, they work mostly with parasites, and not so much with viruses, so they have worked with parasites from bats, says Peter Embarek."

    Right by the market. 300 metres away.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,473
    edited March 2022
    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
    True, and tbf I've often thought that Labour need to ditch their brand and baggage but I do really wonder how you manage it without appearing cynical. Even though it was 30 years ago (though, really only 12 years ago), there's no way a Labour leader could embark on a centrist Labour rebrand without having a young Tony Blair featuring in the news reels. Maybe that's a good thing, though my understanding is he remains pretty unpopular (my own view on the man is mixed).
    Blair remains streets ahead of any current Labour politician.

    Perhaps that is part of the problem?

    There's an interview with him in last week's Newstatesman. After it I read I tried to imagine Starmer talking about the bold choices and big picture and future looking ideas and policies that Blair was discussing.

    I failed.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,473

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    33m
    If Japan were to reoccupy all Japanese territory, what would Russia currently be able to do about it?

    ===


    Off the top of my head: one of them has nukes and the other doesn't.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    For @FF43 and @kjh


    Actually, let's deconstruct your absurd twaddle, @FF43

    "The equivalent in London would be an outbreak in Borough Market must be due to a leak from a lab in Uxbridge."

    1. The closest ancillary outpost of the Wuhan Institute of Virology was their BSL2 (low safety standard) laboratory at the Wuhan CDC, about 280 metres from the market


    "WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, MSc, responded: “As far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table. We have not yet found the source of the virus and must continue to follow the science and leave no stone unturned as we do.”

    Notably, the report includes a hitherto unpublished piece of relevant information: “The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location NEAR THE HUANAN MARKET. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.”"

    So in fact the equivalent in London would be a viral outbreak occurring at Borough Market and the virus lab being slightly to the left of, um, Borough Station


    https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210514/questions-remain-after-who-team-visits-wuhan-looking-for-answers-to-sarscov2

    2. This (insecure) lab near Borough Station is the only lab in the world working on making novel bat coronaviruses even more dangerous to mankind (killer coronaviruses!), and then we get an outbreak of a weirdly dangerous novel bat coronavirus 280 metres away at... Borough Market


    "Unearthed video of Peter Daszak Describing ‘Chinese Colleagues’ Developing ‘Killer’ Coronaviruses"


    https://twitter.com/chuckghunter/status/1407467151544496131?s=20&t=HNWcnqG88coS11GYFQbyhg

    So the lab by Borough Station was deliberately trying to make these novel bat coronaviruses into "killers", and then a killer new bat coronavirus appears at Borough Market...

    Sorry: I thought it was the Chinese Disease Center (CDC) that was 280 meters away, not the Wuhan Institute of virology labs.

    Not being awkward - that's just my recollection. That we sparred about. And then I conceded you were correct.

    But it was the CDC that we were looking at.
    If it's the place we discussed before, it's a city district level centre whose core job is public health policy at the grunt level dealing with drug addiction, vaccine campaigns etc. Now could they have been doing freelance virology research? Maybe, and if so there won't be proper controls. But it feels like a reach. We start with a theory and try out other explanations when the first ones don't quite work.

    The Wuhan Institute of Virology is where you would expect a leak if there was one. It's a national level lab that is known to do this kind of research.
    The Danish head of WHO

    "Although the top-secure laboratory at Wuhan's Institute of Virology has received the most attention, according to the head of WHO's experts, there is also reason to look at the other, which is run by the Chinese health authorities (CDC).

    - Their last publication about working with bats was from 2013, but that does not mean that they have not worked with bats since. As far as we understand, they work mostly with parasites, and not so much with viruses, so they have worked with parasites from bats, says Peter Embarek."

    Right by the market. 300 metres away.
    What’s clear is that the Chinese govt’s initial behaviour indicates they thought it came from the lab. I’ve wondered a lot over the past 2 years how many times this has happened before. But either sudden containment saved the day, or else it was with a less severe contagion.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,612
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    stodge said:

    Two days out and about for work this week. Anecdotal evidence - the "return to desks" is still happening but it's incredibly patchy. I've travelled on tubes which were almost as busy as pre-Covid and incredibly quiet ones which should be busy.

    At 5pm this afternoon, Bank station was quiet and King William Street almost deserted yet this morning the Jubilee was busy - interestingly, more people getting on at Canary Wharf than getting off (easy to forget it's not just offices there now).

    The passenger transport numbers confirm tube usage settling at about two thirds of pre-Covid during the week but that's varied and nuanced. The early tubes remain busy but by 8am, certainly at East Ham, the platform is much quieter confirming the view the administrative workers and professionals are still ensconced at home. Another indicator (of sorts) is what people are wearing - the collar and tie remains in a minority, it's other workers (construction and retail) are out and about.

    Train use picked up to 75-80% a couple of weeks ago but has settled back nearer 70-75% - the trains coming in to Waterloo are busy but not packed as they once were. For all the propaganda and platitudes from politicians, business leaders and property developers, the truth remains the hybrid world of part-office, part-home working is here to stay.

    Leisure traffic is a very different story - those with time and money are out using both. It will be interesting to see if the hot to living standards has an impact on leisure traffic - I suspect not, at least in the short term.

    One side effect of the Ukraine war has been the cutting of the traditional summer cruises to the Baltic and St Petersburg. Some companies have curtailed the voyages back to just Scandinavia while others have moves ships to other routes in the Med which has in turn produced some really competitive deals.

    Some of these effects are going to be permanent. I can't see long distance commuting returning to where it was for office based work, let alone long distance travel for business meetings. The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of technology that allows of working from home and business meetings from multiple remote locations, has demonstrated its viability for businesses, and may have persuaded employees that it's preferable for the daily slog, for at least part of the week.

    It's ironic and unfortunate that the final go ahead was given to the London-Manchester HS2 route just two months before the first lockdown.
    No it wasn't.

    We need all of HS2 to provide the capacity we need to shift freight onto the rail network. And that's before the completely uncalculated improvements occur as commuter services start to run on the old main line routes which were binned 50+ years ago.
    Not just freight.
    Greater Manchester and its hinterland could have a local rail network with 15 minute frequencies the norm for suburban stations. But the network also has to accommodate fast trains. And fast trains eat paths. You need to leave much longer gaps between the slow trains to fit a fast train in.
    If you could take out the London, Liverpool, Leeds, Sheffield and Scotland* trains, the local setvice you could have could be transformed. And high frequencies drive up patronage more than any other single intervention. And importantly drive up non-commute patronage at non-peak times - when traditionally trains carry around a lot of empty air.
    *via the Northern Chord - which also relieves the Castlefield Corridor, the most congested stretch of rail in the North.
    Quite easy to put freight and local services on the same network as they go at similar average speeds.
    ...warming to a theme now...
    So why does this represent a good investment for taxpayers money? Put aside the business case for now, which deals only with the benefits gained by getting from A to B faster: the benefits the exchequer gets from investment in high speed rail is better performing cities with higher productivity. That's great for Greater Manchester (in my case), but it's also great for, say Surrey, because at present GM is a net drain on the exchequer, and has to be cross-subsidised by the likes of Surrey (which already has a very good local rail network). Put in place this sort of infrastructure, and GM becomes a net contributor to the exchequer, and no longer needs cross-subsidy.
    That's the pragmatic case for Levelling Up, innit? A country with more prosperity is better able to afford nice things and not-London is where the UK has lots of room to improve. Otherwise, we are just going to end up scrabbling round for other twigs to chuck on the fire.

    Unfortunately, it looks like being killed off due to a combination of fear of big cities, love of cars and Rishinomics.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,197
    edited March 2022
    theProle said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Nigelb said:


    Meanwhile, whatever the rights or wrongs of this decision, this justification is balls, isn't it?

    Jaw-dropping government u-turn on banning conversion therapy, revealed by @PaulBrandITV. Here is odd justification: “Given unprecedented circumstances of major pressures on cost of living and the crisis in Ukraine, there is an urgent need to rationalise our legislative programme”

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1509575098734465034?t=qCrRMQIXC2BOHt3FQDK7WQ&s=19

    Who was it who said “I think [conversion therapy is] absolutely abhorrent…and we will bring forward plans to ban it” ?
    There are 2 types:
    (1) the let's cure gays which is harmful and ought to be banned and
    (2) the let's affirm trans children without exploring whether they really are trans and can end up harming kids with other issues and/or seeking to convert to trans kids who really are gay. This needs to wait the final report of the Cass Review. The Interim Report already shows why automatic affirmation is not a good idea.
    Why should (1) be banned? It seems to be an article of faith that someone's sexuality is a sort of immutable characteristic, which cannot, and must not be changed. But why? If say a gay man wants to become straight for whatever reason (maybe they like the idea of having natural children with a long-term partner), or come to that a straight man wants to be gay (maybe they can't get anywhere in the dating scene, and think they might have more luck seeking same sex action) why shouldn't they have a therapy to help them achieve this?
    Assuming they are informed and consenting adults what exactly is the problem? Either conversion therapy doesn't work, in which case, why care (after all, homepathy and acapuncture are entrely legal), or it does, in which case the person treated presumably gets what they want.

    I suspect that a lot of people are actually on something of a sliding scale regarding sexuality, and it may well be possible to nudge them somewhat in one direction or another - why I don't get is why this is a problem, provided it is done in a honest and upfront manner.

    (and yes, letting people try and untangle trans vs gay issues is also another good reason not to ban the practice)
    I am not a fan of conversion therapy but not sure if I would ban it however. Now seems the government will ban it but not for trans.

    Was appalled however at the 72 Tory MPs who voted with the majority of Labour and LD MPs to not end DIY at home abortions yesterday. They should remember they were elected as Conservatives not Liberals. Had they abstained then the practice would have ended as most Tory MPs voted for.

    Mike Penning as head of Tory candidates selection has already said action will be taken to oust closet LDs
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,875
    Great piece on Newsnight about the Russian Parachute Brigade thought elite. It seems to match the horrific casualty rates described.

  • Options
    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 787

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
    True, and tbf I've often thought that Labour need to ditch their brand and baggage but I do really wonder how you manage it without appearing cynical. Even though it was 30 years ago (though, really only 12 years ago), there's no way a Labour leader could embark on a centrist Labour rebrand without having a young Tony Blair featuring in the news reels. Maybe that's a good thing, though my understanding is he remains pretty unpopular (my own view on the man is mixed).
    Blair remains streets ahead of any current Labour politician.

    Perhaps that is part of the problem?

    There's an interview with him in last week's Newstatesman. After it I read I tried to imagine Starmer talking about the bold choices and big picture and future looking ideas and policies that Blair was discussing.

    I failed.

    I agree entirely. There was another article he wrote, last year I think, so clearly articulating the problems that Labour face and how to appeal to the electorate. Unfortunately for Blair, I became politically aware during the build up to Iraq and missed the reasons why people voted for him in the first place. That article showed the magic of the man. I believe when he resigned Osborne said to Cameron something like 'He's gone and everyone thinks he's shit but us.'

    I think it's funny (in a weird rather than haha way) that a man who is able to grasp issues so clearly and articulate them so well is so deeply unpopular. Obviously Iraq is a permanent stain on his reputation, but it does seem that in power there was a transformation. Rawnsley wrote to the effect that 'a man who professed a hatred of losing was now acting like a man with nothing to lose.' Since leaving office he seems to have regained that pragmatic hunger. I'm sure the direction of Labour under Corbyn reignited the old fire. He's miles ahead of the current generation, but the public won't give him a hearing...

    Perhaps I should have started this post with 'Dear Tony, I wrote but you still ain't callin'
  • Options
    Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,487

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    :innocent:
    image
  • Options
    Good speech from Starmer
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,875
    The problem of Conversion therapy is surely the one of coercion. If someone freely chooses a therapist to discuss their own sexuality, and their conflicts around it, that shouldn't be banned. Those convinced and happy with their sexuality shouldn't need therapy at all.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,381
    You use the finest publications to demonstrate you points. Guido, the New York Post, what next? The National Enquirer.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,426
    edited March 2022

    You use the finest publications to demonstrate you points. Guido, the New York Post, what next? The National Enquirer.
    I could have used many more - and is the article that Clinton has been found out lying wrong ?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,135
    Leon said:

    Actually, I think PB has solved the Origins of Covid


    It came from the Wuhan CDC (which we know was doing research, like other Wuhan labs, into novel bat coronaviruses). It escaped during their move to a new site near the Huanan Wet Market: when a lab moves, like this, the danger is real - as when you move house, you will inevitably get scuffs on the grand piano

    It escaped during the move of the CDC - in the autumn of 2019. It quickly went to the Huanan market, as it would as everyone in central Wuhan goes there (Chinese markets are great fun and very popular). The market acted as a super-spreader of an engineered bat coronavirus, unfortunately designed (with the best of intentions) to be more pathogenic to humans

    That's it. That explains pretty much everything. The coincidences, the early clusters by the market, the onwards evolution of something genuinely nasty, the FCS thing

    Sorted.

    Nice work, everyone

    Ah hem, didn't your own post just downthread said it was more into bat parasites than viruses?

    Of course said bats might very well have the coronaviruses (and they might very well share animals with the Wuhan institute), but your first sentence overstates what we know.

    TBH, I think it's easier (and more certainly accurate) to say that it would be a remarkable coincidence that the novel coronavirus that came from a bat and the city studying novel bat coronaviruses were entirely unrelated.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,183
    It looks like a Tony Martin style case could affect the outcome of the French election. A farmer with a young child whose property was being raided by three burglars shot and killed one of them and is being prosecuted for murder. Macron made a clumsy statement about being opposed to the concept of "légitime défense" which Le Pen supports.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,473
    edited March 2022
    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
    True, and tbf I've often thought that Labour need to ditch their brand and baggage but I do really wonder how you manage it without appearing cynical. Even though it was 30 years ago (though, really only 12 years ago), there's no way a Labour leader could embark on a centrist Labour rebrand without having a young Tony Blair featuring in the news reels. Maybe that's a good thing, though my understanding is he remains pretty unpopular (my own view on the man is mixed).
    Blair remains streets ahead of any current Labour politician.

    Perhaps that is part of the problem?

    There's an interview with him in last week's Newstatesman. After it I read I tried to imagine Starmer talking about the bold choices and big picture and future looking ideas and policies that Blair was discussing.

    I failed.

    I agree entirely. There was another article he wrote, last year I think, so clearly articulating the problems that Labour face and how to appeal to the electorate. Unfortunately for Blair, I became politically aware during the build up to Iraq and missed the reasons why people voted for him in the first place. That article showed the magic of the man. I believe when he resigned Osborne said to Cameron something like 'He's gone and everyone thinks he's shit but us.'

    I think it's funny (in a weird rather than haha way) that a man who is able to grasp issues so clearly and articulate them so well is so deeply unpopular. Obviously Iraq is a permanent stain on his reputation, but it does seem that in power there was a transformation. Rawnsley wrote to the effect that 'a man who professed a hatred of losing was now acting like a man with nothing to lose.' Since leaving office he seems to have regained that pragmatic hunger. I'm sure the direction of Labour under Corbyn reignited the old fire. He's miles ahead of the current generation, but the public won't give him a hearing...

    Perhaps I should have started this post with 'Dear Tony, I wrote but you still ain't callin'
    In the article he berates the Left for refusing to see that anything, literally anything, happened under New Labour other than the war in Iraq.

    He rules out doing a Gladstone.



  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,135
    Foxy said:

    The problem of Conversion therapy is surely the one of coercion. If someone freely chooses a therapist to discuss their own sexuality, and their conflicts around it, that shouldn't be banned. Those convinced and happy with their sexuality shouldn't need therapy at all.

    There you go, being all sensible and everything.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,050
    Feeling happy because I got my copy of NW by Zadie Smith personally signed by the author this evening.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,875
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    The problem of Conversion therapy is surely the one of coercion. If someone freely chooses a therapist to discuss their own sexuality, and their conflicts around it, that shouldn't be banned. Those convinced and happy with their sexuality shouldn't need therapy at all.

    There you go, being all sensible and everything.
    Ooh sorry. I shall go back to being unreasonable in the morning...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    33m
    If Japan were to reoccupy all Japanese territory, what would Russia currently be able to do about it?

    ===


    Off the top of my head: one of them has nukes and the other doesn't.

    Give it a few hours, and they both would.....


    As Russia knows.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,197

    It looks like a Tony Martin style case could affect the outcome of the French election. A farmer with a young child whose property was being raided by three burglars shot and killed one of them and is being prosecuted for murder. Macron made a clumsy statement about being opposed to the concept of "légitime défense" which Le Pen supports.

    That will boost Le Pen in rural and provincial France
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Lol! “Magic” private polling. Haven’t heard that one in years.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036

    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.

    Seemed obvious. They haven't lost this ward this Century. Not even when the Tories were losing elections and looked like never winning one again in 2003.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,426
    edited March 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.

    Seemed obvious. They haven't lost this ward this Century. Not even when the Tories were losing elections and looked like never winning one again in 2003.
    The conservatives also held in Scarborough and poor figures for labour
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,875

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
    True, and tbf I've often thought that Labour need to ditch their brand and baggage but I do really wonder how you manage it without appearing cynical. Even though it was 30 years ago (though, really only 12 years ago), there's no way a Labour leader could embark on a centrist Labour rebrand without having a young Tony Blair featuring in the news reels. Maybe that's a good thing, though my understanding is he remains pretty unpopular (my own view on the man is mixed).
    Blair remains streets ahead of any current Labour politician.

    Perhaps that is part of the problem?

    There's an interview with him in last week's Newstatesman. After it I read I tried to imagine Starmer talking about the bold choices and big picture and future looking ideas and policies that Blair was discussing.

    I failed.

    I agree entirely. There was another article he wrote, last year I think, so clearly articulating the problems that Labour face and how to appeal to the electorate. Unfortunately for Blair, I became politically aware during the build up to Iraq and missed the reasons why people voted for him in the first place. That article showed the magic of the man. I believe when he resigned Osborne said to Cameron something like 'He's gone and everyone thinks he's shit but us.'

    I think it's funny (in a weird rather than haha way) that a man who is able to grasp issues so clearly and articulate them so well is so deeply unpopular. Obviously Iraq is a permanent stain on his reputation, but it does seem that in power there was a transformation. Rawnsley wrote to the effect that 'a man who professed a hatred of losing was now acting like a man with nothing to lose.' Since leaving office he seems to have regained that pragmatic hunger. I'm sure the direction of Labour under Corbyn reignited the old fire. He's miles ahead of the current generation, but the public won't give him a hearing...

    Perhaps I should have started this post with 'Dear Tony, I wrote but you still ain't callin'
    In the article he berates the Left for refusing to see that anything, literally anything, happened under New Labour other than the war in Iraq.

    He rules out doing a Gladstone.



    I was archetypal New Labour. I joined the party in the mid nineties and saw Mr Blair speak in Derby in about 1996. He was mesmerising. I even took a week off Annual Leave to canvas for the 1997 election. I was delighted at the result, it really did feel like a new dawn for Britain.

    It wasn't just the Iraq war that disillusioned me. The culture of mendacity and cynicism went much further than that alone. I quit the party in the early naughties and haven't voted Labour since 2001.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Foxy said:

    The problem of Conversion therapy is surely the one of coercion. If someone freely chooses a therapist to discuss their own sexuality, and their conflicts around it, that shouldn't be banned. Those convinced and happy with their sexuality shouldn't need therapy at all.

    I think the argument would be that you need to roll that one step back and ask why they are conflicted rather than embracing their sexuality. One could argue that’s because there’s coercion going on at the higher level via religious indoctrination etc.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,604
    edited March 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, I think PB has solved the Origins of Covid


    It came from the Wuhan CDC (which we know was doing research, like other Wuhan labs, into novel bat coronaviruses). It escaped during their move to a new site near the Huanan Wet Market: when a lab moves, like this, the danger is real - as when you move house, you will inevitably get scuffs on the grand piano

    It escaped during the move of the CDC - in the autumn of 2019. It quickly went to the Huanan market, as it would as everyone in central Wuhan goes there (Chinese markets are great fun and very popular). The market acted as a super-spreader of an engineered bat coronavirus, unfortunately designed (with the best of intentions) to be more pathogenic to humans

    That's it. That explains pretty much everything. The coincidences, the early clusters by the market, the onwards evolution of something genuinely nasty, the FCS thing

    Sorted.

    Nice work, everyone

    Ah hem, didn't your own post just downthread said it was more into bat parasites than viruses?

    Of course said bats might very well have the coronaviruses (and they might very well share animals with the Wuhan institute), but your first sentence overstates what we know.

    TBH, I think it's easier (and more certainly accurate) to say that it would be a remarkable coincidence that the novel coronavirus that came from a bat and the city studying novel bat coronaviruses were entirely unrelated.
    This should be needless to say, but it's utterly unacceptable for scientific researchers to attempt to make diseases more transmissible and deadly - what? 'So the *bad* guys don't get hold of it'??? It's especially unacceptable for such research to be conducted by the USA on foreign soil. It has been alleged that the current bird flu pandemic, which means all British chickens must be kept indoors and free range eggs are no longer on sale, originated in a US lab in Ukraine. Who can now dismiss that theory?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,050
    edited March 2022
  • Options
    StereodogStereodog Posts: 401
    Any PBers listen in to numbers stations on shortwave radio? The Russian UVB-76 'buzzer' station went crazy this morning and started playing western pop music (it usually just produces a buzzing tone). I'm sure it doesn't mean anything but you always wonder with Russian stations these days.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Foxy said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
    True, and tbf I've often thought that Labour need to ditch their brand and baggage but I do really wonder how you manage it without appearing cynical. Even though it was 30 years ago (though, really only 12 years ago), there's no way a Labour leader could embark on a centrist Labour rebrand without having a young Tony Blair featuring in the news reels. Maybe that's a good thing, though my understanding is he remains pretty unpopular (my own view on the man is mixed).
    Blair remains streets ahead of any current Labour politician.

    Perhaps that is part of the problem?

    There's an interview with him in last week's Newstatesman. After it I read I tried to imagine Starmer talking about the bold choices and big picture and future looking ideas and policies that Blair was discussing.

    I failed.

    I agree entirely. There was another article he wrote, last year I think, so clearly articulating the problems that Labour face and how to appeal to the electorate. Unfortunately for Blair, I became politically aware during the build up to Iraq and missed the reasons why people voted for him in the first place. That article showed the magic of the man. I believe when he resigned Osborne said to Cameron something like 'He's gone and everyone thinks he's shit but us.'

    I think it's funny (in a weird rather than haha way) that a man who is able to grasp issues so clearly and articulate them so well is so deeply unpopular. Obviously Iraq is a permanent stain on his reputation, but it does seem that in power there was a transformation. Rawnsley wrote to the effect that 'a man who professed a hatred of losing was now acting like a man with nothing to lose.' Since leaving office he seems to have regained that pragmatic hunger. I'm sure the direction of Labour under Corbyn reignited the old fire. He's miles ahead of the current generation, but the public won't give him a hearing...

    Perhaps I should have started this post with 'Dear Tony, I wrote but you still ain't callin'
    In the article he berates the Left for refusing to see that anything, literally anything, happened under New Labour other than the war in Iraq.

    He rules out doing a Gladstone.



    I was archetypal New Labour. I joined the party in the mid nineties and saw Mr Blair speak in Derby in about 1996. He was mesmerising. I even took a week off Annual Leave to canvas for the 1997 election. I was delighted at the result, it really did feel like a new dawn for Britain.

    It wasn't just the Iraq war that disillusioned me. The culture of mendacity and cynicism went much further than that alone. I quit the party in the early naughties and haven't voted Labour since 2001.
    There was a point in the late nineties where it really felt like EVERYONE was New Labour.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
    True, and tbf I've often thought that Labour need to ditch their brand and baggage but I do really wonder how you manage it without appearing cynical. Even though it was 30 years ago (though, really only 12 years ago), there's no way a Labour leader could embark on a centrist Labour rebrand without having a young Tony Blair featuring in the news reels. Maybe that's a good thing, though my understanding is he remains pretty unpopular (my own view on the man is mixed).
    Blair remains streets ahead of any current Labour politician.

    Perhaps that is part of the problem?

    There's an interview with him in last week's Newstatesman. After it I read I tried to imagine Starmer talking about the bold choices and big picture and future looking ideas and policies that Blair was discussing.

    I failed.

    I agree entirely. There was another article he wrote, last year I think, so clearly articulating the problems that Labour face and how to appeal to the electorate. Unfortunately for Blair, I became politically aware during the build up to Iraq and missed the reasons why people voted for him in the first place. That article showed the magic of the man. I believe when he resigned Osborne said to Cameron something like 'He's gone and everyone thinks he's shit but us.'

    I think it's funny (in a weird rather than haha way) that a man who is able to grasp issues so clearly and articulate them so well is so deeply unpopular. Obviously Iraq is a permanent stain on his reputation, but it does seem that in power there was a transformation. Rawnsley wrote to the effect that 'a man who professed a hatred of losing was now acting like a man with nothing to lose.' Since leaving office he seems to have regained that pragmatic hunger. I'm sure the direction of Labour under Corbyn reignited the old fire. He's miles ahead of the current generation, but the public won't give him a hearing...

    Perhaps I should have started this post with 'Dear Tony, I wrote but you still ain't callin'
    In the article he berates the Left for refusing to see that anything, literally anything, happened under New Labour other than the war in Iraq.

    He rules out doing a Gladstone.



    That all deciles saw a spectacular growth in real earnings, including the bottom ones in the first ten years of New Labour rule is something to be hugely proud of. I am. I frankly don't understand those who profess to be on the Left don't.
    We should be hammering this point home at every opportunity.
    The Tories have never achieved this. They have raised incomes, but never broadly equally.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, I think PB has solved the Origins of Covid


    It came from the Wuhan CDC (which we know was doing research, like other Wuhan labs, into novel bat coronaviruses). It escaped during their move to a new site near the Huanan Wet Market: when a lab moves, like this, the danger is real - as when you move house, you will inevitably get scuffs on the grand piano

    It escaped during the move of the CDC - in the autumn of 2019. It quickly went to the Huanan market, as it would as everyone in central Wuhan goes there (Chinese markets are great fun and very popular). The market acted as a super-spreader of an engineered bat coronavirus, unfortunately designed (with the best of intentions) to be more pathogenic to humans

    That's it. That explains pretty much everything. The coincidences, the early clusters by the market, the onwards evolution of something genuinely nasty, the FCS thing

    Sorted.

    Nice work, everyone

    Ah hem, didn't your own post just downthread said it was more into bat parasites than viruses?

    Of course said bats might very well have the coronaviruses (and they might very well share animals with the Wuhan institute), but your first sentence overstates what we know.

    TBH, I think it's easier (and more certainly accurate) to say that it would be a remarkable coincidence that the novel coronavirus that came from a bat and the city studying novel bat coronaviruses were entirely unrelated.
    I was being a TAD HYPERBOLIC

    But I believe some kind of lab leak is now well well north of 90% in terms of probability, but of course - as you rightly say - "lab leak" can be anything from some poor dude getting bitten by a bat during research in Yunnan then schlepping back to Wuhan, right up to a fiendish Chinese general injecting an eel salesman at Wuhan market, with his brand new pathogenised bat virus, just for the pandemic bantz

    A mid point, and quite plausible to me, is a sad leak of an engineered bug during the CDC's difficult move close to Wuhan wet market, in the autumn of 2019. The timing fits perfectly, as does the geography

    Are we going to let scientists just get away with this? I fear we are, and it is tragic. 10-20 million have died



  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Stereodog said:

    Any PBers listen in to numbers stations on shortwave radio? The Russian UVB-76 'buzzer' station went crazy this morning and started playing western pop music (it usually just produces a buzzing tone). I'm sure it doesn't mean anything but you always wonder with Russian stations these days.

    Well “Heathener” was posting again earlier….
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    biggles said:

    Lol! “Magic” private polling. Haven’t heard that one in years.
    I always like the one that crops up sometimes about parties having a better idea of what is really going on than they might let on publicly, as part of some kind of strategy, as though they 'must' know the true picture. Seems more likely to me that a lot of the time they will be just as clueless as they appear to be about what the public think about themselves or their policies. Sometimes they just get lucky.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,050
    Stereodog said:

    Any PBers listen in to numbers stations on shortwave radio? The Russian UVB-76 'buzzer' station went crazy this morning and started playing western pop music (it usually just produces a buzzing tone). I'm sure it doesn't mean anything but you always wonder with Russian stations these days.

    I've got a radio that includes short wave but don't use it much.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,875
    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    The problem of Conversion therapy is surely the one of coercion. If someone freely chooses a therapist to discuss their own sexuality, and their conflicts around it, that shouldn't be banned. Those convinced and happy with their sexuality shouldn't need therapy at all.

    I think the argument would be that you need to roll that one step back and ask why they are conflicted rather than embracing their sexuality. One could argue that’s because there’s coercion going on at the higher level via religious indoctrination etc.
    Sure, that is one of many reasons that people could be conflicted. Particularly in adolescence there is a lot of exploration, experimentation and false starts in sexual experience, influenced by a lot of societal customs and norms. Adolescents are very prone to peer pressure, and it isn't just heteronormative behaviour that causes conflict.
  • Options
    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 787

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
    True, and tbf I've often thought that Labour need to ditch their brand and baggage but I do really wonder how you manage it without appearing cynical. Even though it was 30 years ago (though, really only 12 years ago), there's no way a Labour leader could embark on a centrist Labour rebrand without having a young Tony Blair featuring in the news reels. Maybe that's a good thing, though my understanding is he remains pretty unpopular (my own view on the man is mixed).
    Blair remains streets ahead of any current Labour politician.

    Perhaps that is part of the problem?

    There's an interview with him in last week's Newstatesman. After it I read I tried to imagine Starmer talking about the bold choices and big picture and future looking ideas and policies that Blair was discussing.

    I failed.

    I agree entirely. There was another article he wrote, last year I think, so clearly articulating the problems that Labour face and how to appeal to the electorate. Unfortunately for Blair, I became politically aware during the build up to Iraq and missed the reasons why people voted for him in the first place. That article showed the magic of the man. I believe when he resigned Osborne said to Cameron something like 'He's gone and everyone thinks he's shit but us.'

    I think it's funny (in a weird rather than haha way) that a man who is able to grasp issues so clearly and articulate them so well is so deeply unpopular. Obviously Iraq is a permanent stain on his reputation, but it does seem that in power there was a transformation. Rawnsley wrote to the effect that 'a man who professed a hatred of losing was now acting like a man with nothing to lose.' Since leaving office he seems to have regained that pragmatic hunger. I'm sure the direction of Labour under Corbyn reignited the old fire. He's miles ahead of the current generation, but the public won't give him a hearing...

    Perhaps I should have started this post with 'Dear Tony, I wrote but you still ain't callin'
    In the article he berates the Left for refusing to see that anything, literally anything, happened under New Labour other than the war in Iraq.

    He rules out doing a Gladstone.



    Just read the interview now. Was the same as the earlier article I mentioned. Articulate, succinct and simple arguments. A radical, yet sensible, vision for the future.

    The prospect of him doing a Gladstone is an interesting one (ruled out by him for obvious reasons - Foxy goes into them). Because of him, I promised myself that I would never vote Labour in my entire life. I voted Labour in 2015. If he did a Gladstone, I might actually vote for the man himself! On that basis, I can see how he was an election winning machine even Post-Iraq.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,183
    Just checked the covid ‘stats’ - quite a ‘drop’.

    Would it be better if these stats were annualised, a la influenza?
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    The problem of Conversion therapy is surely the one of coercion. If someone freely chooses a therapist to discuss their own sexuality, and their conflicts around it, that shouldn't be banned. Those convinced and happy with their sexuality shouldn't need therapy at all.

    I think the argument would be that you need to roll that one step back and ask why they are conflicted rather than embracing their sexuality. One could argue that’s because there’s coercion going on at the higher level via religious indoctrination etc.
    Sure, that is one of many reasons that people could be conflicted. Particularly in adolescence there is a lot of exploration, experimentation and false starts in sexual experience, influenced by a lot of societal customs and norms. Adolescents are very prone to peer pressure, and it isn't just heteronormative behaviour that causes conflict.
    Yeah that’s fair. Any such legislation would/will be tricky to draft sensibly. Not easy because the sensible “let’s get it right” debate will be drowned out by noises off.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036

    dixiedean said:

    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.

    Seemed obvious. They haven't lost this ward this Century. Not even when the Tories were losing elections and looked like never winning one again in 2003.
    The conservatives also held in Scarborough and poor figures for labour
    I try to call it as I see it.
  • Options
    StereodogStereodog Posts: 401
    Andy_JS said:

    Stereodog said:

    Any PBers listen in to numbers stations on shortwave radio? The Russian UVB-76 'buzzer' station went crazy this morning and started playing western pop music (it usually just produces a buzzing tone). I'm sure it doesn't mean anything but you always wonder with Russian stations these days.

    I've got a radio that includes short wave but don't use it much.
    Mostly just Chinese propaganda stations these days but the spy stations are fun to try and find.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,050
    The Germans really have been very foolish on this.

    "Germany accuses Putin of 'blackmail' and refuses to back down after Russian President threatened to turn off Europe's gas supplies in hours if countries refuse to pay in roubles"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10672659/Putin-threatens-turn-Europes-gas-supplies-TOMORROW-countries-refuse-pay-roubles.html#comments
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    Lol! “Magic” private polling. Haven’t heard that one in years.
    I always like the one that crops up sometimes about parties having a better idea of what is really going on than they might let on publicly, as part of some kind of strategy, as though they 'must' know the true picture. Seems more likely to me that a lot of the time they will be just as clueless as they appear to be about what the public think about themselves or their policies. Sometimes they just get lucky.
    “We might on the face of it look like we’re going down to a massive defeat but our private polling tells a different story and it’s just not what I’m hearing on the doorstep. In any event, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day”.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036
    Anyways. I suspect I may have broken my foot standing up in the library. My foot went to sleep and I went over with my toes bending backwards.
    It's really hurting now. Hope it is just ligament damage
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    I say again, Labour so need a rebrand. Their posters and so on look so tired.

    Problem is, they already did that. Don't know if they can manage it a second time. Newer Labour?
    That was ≈ 30 years ago. Half the electorate have seen the same branding their whole lives.
    True, and tbf I've often thought that Labour need to ditch their brand and baggage but I do really wonder how you manage it without appearing cynical. Even though it was 30 years ago (though, really only 12 years ago), there's no way a Labour leader could embark on a centrist Labour rebrand without having a young Tony Blair featuring in the news reels. Maybe that's a good thing, though my understanding is he remains pretty unpopular (my own view on the man is mixed).
    Blair remains streets ahead of any current Labour politician.

    Perhaps that is part of the problem?

    There's an interview with him in last week's Newstatesman. After it I read I tried to imagine Starmer talking about the bold choices and big picture and future looking ideas and policies that Blair was discussing.

    I failed.

    I agree entirely. There was another article he wrote, last year I think, so clearly articulating the problems that Labour face and how to appeal to the electorate. Unfortunately for Blair, I became politically aware during the build up to Iraq and missed the reasons why people voted for him in the first place. That article showed the magic of the man. I believe when he resigned Osborne said to Cameron something like 'He's gone and everyone thinks he's shit but us.'

    I think it's funny (in a weird rather than haha way) that a man who is able to grasp issues so clearly and articulate them so well is so deeply unpopular. Obviously Iraq is a permanent stain on his reputation, but it does seem that in power there was a transformation. Rawnsley wrote to the effect that 'a man who professed a hatred of losing was now acting like a man with nothing to lose.' Since leaving office he seems to have regained that pragmatic hunger. I'm sure the direction of Labour under Corbyn reignited the old fire. He's miles ahead of the current generation, but the public won't give him a hearing...

    Perhaps I should have started this post with 'Dear Tony, I wrote but you still ain't callin'
    In the article he berates the Left for refusing to see that anything, literally anything, happened under New Labour other than the war in Iraq.

    He rules out doing a Gladstone.



    I was archetypal New Labour. I joined the party in the mid nineties and saw Mr Blair speak in Derby in about 1996. He was mesmerising. I even took a week off Annual Leave to canvas for the 1997 election. I was delighted at the result, it really did feel like a new dawn for Britain.

    It wasn't just the Iraq war that disillusioned me. The culture of mendacity and cynicism went much further than that alone. I quit the party in the early naughties and haven't voted Labour since 2001.
    There was a point in the late nineties where it really felt like EVERYONE was New Labour.
    I wasn't. Never fell for that faux "charm". Really disliked the Mandelsons and Campbells that he surrounded himself with.

    He was very fortunate that the EVERYONE included the press. As he himself said, he thought he was a goner over that million quid from Ecclestone. But the press were giving him a free pass during his honeymoon....
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited March 2022
    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    Lol! “Magic” private polling. Haven’t heard that one in years.
    I always like the one that crops up sometimes about parties having a better idea of what is really going on than they might let on publicly, as part of some kind of strategy, as though they 'must' know the true picture. Seems more likely to me that a lot of the time they will be just as clueless as they appear to be about what the public think about themselves or their policies. Sometimes they just get lucky.
    Labour's private polling for GE19 was in fact almost spot on, which makes it stranger that they chose to go for an election
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.

    Seemed obvious. They haven't lost this ward this Century. Not even when the Tories were losing elections and looked like never winning one again in 2003.
    The conservatives also held in Scarborough and poor figures for labour
    I try to call it as I see it.
    Big G is just deflecting from another lead in a poll for Labour
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Anyways. I suspect I may have broken my foot standing up in the library. My foot went to sleep and I went over with my toes bending backwards.
    It's really hurting now. Hope it is just ligament damage

    That sounds nasty - hope it is not a bad as you fear
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036

    dixiedean said:

    Anyways. I suspect I may have broken my foot standing up in the library. My foot went to sleep and I went over with my toes bending backwards.
    It's really hurting now. Hope it is just ligament damage

    That sounds nasty - hope it is not a bad as you fear
    Thank you. Sadly I have chosen to drink. I fear I may pay the price in the morning.
  • Options

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.

    Seemed obvious. They haven't lost this ward this Century. Not even when the Tories were losing elections and looked like never winning one again in 2003.
    The conservatives also held in Scarborough and poor figures for labour
    I try to call it as I see it.
    Big G is just deflecting from another lead in a poll for Labour
    The problem for labour is in this climate they should be out of sight and around 4% average lead is an underperformance

    Furthermore the locals are not showing recovering vote share which should be expected
  • Options
    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 787
    Happy No-Tory-Poll-Lead Day!
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Anyways. I suspect I may have broken my foot standing up in the library. My foot went to sleep and I went over with my toes bending backwards.
    It's really hurting now. Hope it is just ligament damage

    That sounds nasty - hope it is not a bad as you fear
    Thank you. Sadly I have chosen to drink. I fear I may pay the price in the morning.
    I do not think you should beat yourself up over a drink or two or three !!!!!
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,882

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.

    Seemed obvious. They haven't lost this ward this Century. Not even when the Tories were losing elections and looked like never winning one again in 2003.
    The conservatives also held in Scarborough and poor figures for labour
    I try to call it as I see it.
    Big G is just deflecting from another lead in a poll for Labour
    He seems to moved on to Hillary now.
    Lock her up!
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.

    Seemed obvious. They haven't lost this ward this Century. Not even when the Tories were losing elections and looked like never winning one again in 2003.
    The conservatives also held in Scarborough and poor figures for labour
    I try to call it as I see it.
    Big G is just deflecting from another lead in a poll for Labour
    The problem for labour is in this climate they should be out of sight and around 4% average lead is an underperformance

    Furthermore the locals are not showing recovering vote share which should be expected
    Indeed. It is one of the curious things. The polling suggests the Tories should be going backwards. But actual voting rarely suggests they are. There are a number of explanations for this. UNS has totally broken down being one of them.
  • Options

    Blair is such an interesting character.

    I found him narcissistic and mendacious, and I never voted for him. There was always something of the fraudulent vicar about him.

    But he was - and remains - an astonishingly fluent advocate for the kind of progressive Britain that right-leaning voters can get behind.

    He is indeed head and shoulders above all his successors; and Britain should be so lucky were he to somehow return (which he won’t).

    He was the reason I voted Labour in 1997 and 2001

    Unfortunately Starmer is simply not in the same league when the country is seeking a real alternative to Boris and the conservatives
  • Options

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.

    Seemed obvious. They haven't lost this ward this Century. Not even when the Tories were losing elections and looked like never winning one again in 2003.
    The conservatives also held in Scarborough and poor figures for labour
    I try to call it as I see it.
    Big G is just deflecting from another lead in a poll for Labour
    He seems to moved on to Hillary now.
    Lock her up!
    Why when she has been judged as someone not telling the truth
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Melton Sysonby (Melton) council by-election result:

    CON: 53.2% (+8.3)
    LAB: 24.6% (-1.1)
    LDEM: 22.2% (+22.2)

    Votes cast: 744

    No Grn (-29.3) as prev.

    Conservative HOLD.

    Well done to Dixiedean for calling this. I didn't want to predict this one as I didn't know how well the LDs would do although that is a strong Tory result and an OK Labour one.

    LDs mopping up Green vote but not going any further.

    Seemed obvious. They haven't lost this ward this Century. Not even when the Tories were losing elections and looked like never winning one again in 2003.
    The conservatives also held in Scarborough and poor figures for labour
    I try to call it as I see it.
    Big G is just deflecting from another lead in a poll for Labour
    The problem for labour is in this climate they should be out of sight and around 4% average lead is an underperformance

    Furthermore the locals are not showing recovering vote share which should be expected
    Indeed. It is one of the curious things. The polling suggests the Tories should be going backwards. But actual voting rarely suggests they are. There are a number of explanations for this. UNS has totally broken down being one of them.
    The only conclusion I have is that 2024 is just impossible to call
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,733
    edited March 2022
    “Belgium eyes ban on round goldfish bowls... because they are too STRESSFUL”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10674181/Belgium-eyes-ban-round-goldfish-bowls-STRESSFUL.html

    Its quite hard, coming up with inoffensive April fools jokes these days. Not a bad effort from the DM.

    B-
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,183

    Blair is such an interesting character.

    I found him narcissistic and mendacious, and I never voted for him. There was always something of the fraudulent vicar about him.

    But he was - and remains - an astonishingly fluent advocate for the kind of progressive Britain that right-leaning voters can get behind.

    He is indeed head and shoulders above all his successors; and Britain should be so lucky were he to somehow return (which he won’t).

    It's a shame we don't have the counterfactual of what his premiership would have been like without Gordon Brown and without 9/11 and its consequences.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,875
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Anyways. I suspect I may have broken my foot standing up in the library. My foot went to sleep and I went over with my toes bending backwards.
    It's really hurting now. Hope it is just ligament damage

    That sounds nasty - hope it is not a bad as you fear
    Thank you. Sadly I have chosen to drink. I fear I may pay the price in the morning.
    Sleep with it elevated. The less swelling the better.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    edited March 2022
    moonshine said:


    What’s clear is that the Chinese govt’s initial behaviour indicates they thought it came from the lab. I’ve wondered a lot over the past 2 years how many times this has happened before. But either sudden containment saved the day, or else it was with a less severe contagion.

    Is it clear they thought it came from the lab? How? I know they were shifty and lied a lot, but that's the normal mode of operation of authoritarian states.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,529

    Blair is such an interesting character.

    I found him narcissistic and mendacious, and I never voted for him. There was always something of the fraudulent vicar about him.

    But he was - and remains - an astonishingly fluent advocate for the kind of progressive Britain that right-leaning voters can get behind.

    He is indeed head and shoulders above all his successors; and Britain should be so lucky were he to somehow return (which he won’t).

    It's a shame we don't have the counterfactual of what his premiership would have been like without Gordon Brown and without 9/11 and its consequences.
    One thing which might have happened without Brown was joining the Euro. Blair was a true believer in the Euro project. If he had had another one at chancellor...
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    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 787

    Blair is such an interesting character.

    I found him narcissistic and mendacious, and I never voted for him. There was always something of the fraudulent vicar about him.

    But he was - and remains - an astonishingly fluent advocate for the kind of progressive Britain that right-leaning voters can get behind.

    He is indeed head and shoulders above all his successors; and Britain should be so lucky were he to somehow return (which he won’t).

    On his advocacy, it seems he only spent a fleeting time at the bar. In another life, perhaps Tony Blair could have been the preeminent barrister of his time (though I understand Cherie was considered the more talented of the two).
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,529
    Andy_JS said:

    The Germans really have been very foolish on this.

    "Germany accuses Putin of 'blackmail' and refuses to back down after Russian President threatened to turn off Europe's gas supplies in hours if countries refuse to pay in roubles"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10672659/Putin-threatens-turn-Europes-gas-supplies-TOMORROW-countries-refuse-pay-roubles.html#comments

    Why does he want it in Roubles? You'd have thought he'd be keen for some foreign currency.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,183
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Germans really have been very foolish on this.

    "Germany accuses Putin of 'blackmail' and refuses to back down after Russian President threatened to turn off Europe's gas supplies in hours if countries refuse to pay in roubles"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10672659/Putin-threatens-turn-Europes-gas-supplies-TOMORROW-countries-refuse-pay-roubles.html#comments

    Why does he want it in Roubles? You'd have thought he'd be keen for some foreign currency.
    It's a power play to try to force countries to break their own sanctions or suffer the consequences.
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    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 787
    Cookie said:

    Blair is such an interesting character.

    I found him narcissistic and mendacious, and I never voted for him. There was always something of the fraudulent vicar about him.

    But he was - and remains - an astonishingly fluent advocate for the kind of progressive Britain that right-leaning voters can get behind.

    He is indeed head and shoulders above all his successors; and Britain should be so lucky were he to somehow return (which he won’t).

    It's a shame we don't have the counterfactual of what his premiership would have been like without Gordon Brown and without 9/11 and its consequences.
    One thing which might have happened without Brown was joining the Euro. Blair was a true believer in the Euro project. If he had had another one at chancellor...
    I once read a counterfactual, I believe in the Guardian, that Britain's entry into the Euro would have strengthened it and prevented the crises that later engulfed it. Not sure I bought it, but that the UK's inclusion into the single current would have altered it's present nature seems evident to me. Who knows what a Euro with British Characteristics would look like?

    More Churchill on the bills, I imagine, for a start.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,376
    ping said:

    “Belgium eyes ban on round goldfish bowls... because they are too STRESSFUL”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10674181/Belgium-eyes-ban-round-goldfish-bowls-STRESSFUL.html

    Its quite hard, coming up with inoffensive April fools jokes these days. Not a bad effort from the DM.

    B-

    It's genuine (and in their Mar 31 edition) - animal welfare specialists have argued against goldfish bowls for a long time. It's onre of those familiar things that feels fine until it's explained (hamster wheels is another one). They're quite rare in Britain now, aren't they? - can't think when I last saw one, and e.g. Pets at Home have stopped stocking them.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,376
    HYUFD said:

    ple try and untangle trans vs gay issues is also another good reason not to ban the practice)

    I am not a fan of conversion therapy but not sure if I would ban it however. Now seems the government will ban it but not for trans.

    Was appalled however at the 72 Tory MPs who voted with the majority of Labour and LD MPs to not end DIY at home abortions yesterday. They should remember they were elected as Conservatives not Liberals. Had they abstained then the practice would have ended as most Tory MPs voted for.

    Mike Penning as head of Tory candidates selection has already said action will be taken to oust closet LDs

    Ooh, a purge, exciting! But won't sitting MPs be exrempt?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    ping said:

    “Belgium eyes ban on round goldfish bowls... because they are too STRESSFUL”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10674181/Belgium-eyes-ban-round-goldfish-bowls-STRESSFUL.html

    Its quite hard, coming up with inoffensive April fools jokes these days. Not a bad effort from the DM.

    B-

    This is a poor effort by the Sun...

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18129566/row-10ft-statue-piers-morgan-trafalgar-square/
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,882
    I’m sure PB did it to death, but I missed the news that Macron’s planned evacuation of Mariupol was abandoned.

    Macron called Putin nine times, and he wouldn’t allow it.

    Absolutely humiliating for Macron, utterly tragic for the Mariupolitans.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited April 2022

    I’m sure PB did it to death, but I missed the news that Macron’s planned evacuation of Mariupol was abandoned.

    Macron called Putin nine times, and he wouldn’t allow it.

    Absolutely humiliating for Macron, utterly tragic for the Mariupolitans.

    Macron isn't having a good war is he.
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    PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    Macron was negotiating with Putin in the belief that Russia would not invade and that he could claim credit for stopping them.

    This was because French intelligence was briefing him that Russia would not invade even though US and UK said Russia would invade..

    As a result ....
    1. Macron looks inadequate
    2. Macron sacks his head of intelligence.
    See https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220331-french-military-spy-chief-quits-after-failure-to-predict-russian-invasion
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,882
    That’s a very cynical appraisal of Macron.

    I think he hoped, given France’s “special relationship” with Russia, he could maybe avert war.

    It was worth a go. You can’t take that away from him.
This discussion has been closed.