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The Barnet Bypass: Can the Tories hold on again? – politicalbetting.com
The Barnet Bypass: Can the Tories hold on again? – politicalbetting.com
It’s hard to believe these days, but London used to be a swing city politically. Labour tended to have an edge, but the Tories were frequently hot on their heels. The ‘popular vote’ across local elections in the city was frequently within a couple of percentage points, such as the 1990, 2002, and 2006 elections. In 2006 the Tories even swept control of half a dozen councils off Labour and governed 14 of the city’s 32 boroughs (Labour controlled 7, the rest were Lib Dem or No Overall Control).
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Never heard of him.
Quincel sets out a decent case. If Barnet was felt to hold out against tide at least in part for reasons which no longer apply so directly, then it seems a fair bet they can manage it.
So results will be disappointing.
I know that national politics is the most important factor when it comes to the overall tides in local election results, but it does seem strange to have a discussion of whether control of the council might change without even a cursory discussion of how well the council is currently being run.
Unlike here. Where we elect only one councillor per ward every four years. Well, for 65 of them. The 66th elects two.
But of course it does.
Well, and not being able to stand as a Labour candidate perhaps, but we'll see.
Didn't realise Beckett has actually served 44 years, having been in parliament 74-19 too. You'd think so, but it didn't stop Barbados, so where there's a will there's a way.
As London was already Labour's strongest UK region even in 2019 it is not surprising it has seen less swung there since the last general election than the North. Nonetheless, Labour must win the marginal seats the Tories hold in the capital still to form a government
Albeit, it's a quiet long-term strategy.
I was just wondering if there was a good reason that anyone knew of for that?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_Kingdom_local_elections
As to 65 wards being 1 cllr and 1 ward having 2, you can blame the LGBCE for that sort of thing - it makes drawing boundaries easier for them to create wards of acceptable variance, and I've seen councils with a mixture of 1,2 and 3. I did wonder if they have been given new guidance on that, as I was stunned that Buckinghamshire Council, the new unitary, not only had well over 100 seats (which is not well liked by them and is rare) but 49 wards each with 3 cllrs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_City_of_London_Corporation_election#Farringdon_Without
Anachronism? Why compare it to spiders?
Who are we as a people, as a nation? What direction do we want to go? Sure there comes a time when the most fundamental questions need to be addressed, no matter how challenging. Where One needs ones heart to follow an idea, it is the monarchy that is already bringing us together. Holding us together. A monarchy to unite Our colours, Our Faiths, our principles. Before us now is our future, a wider road upon which we seek one another in our aloneness, and we walk the road when we have no hearth to sit beside. Where we will live upon one another according to the law, ancient and timeless, and thus live together in loving kindness. A path To cross the divides of neighbourhoods. A way shared by all Cultures and religion.
Our monarchy is that opening, an opportunity To Walk rough shod over the divide between us, as nations, and as people’s.
When you are Venturing forth together into unknown territory. You cannot be an adventurer without an unknown to explore. Each and every one of us venturing now into a new landscape, we can only be guided by our hearts, our love, our faith. The monarchy let’s all hearts join with ours, it’s never been more relevant.
My impression is that electing in thirds was the standard where the wards had multiple members (because electing one person at a time makes most sense for FPTP elections), which was normally the case for densely populated metropolitan councils, while the County Councils normally had one councillor per area, and so would be whole elections. But this has gradually been complicated over the years. Perhaps running all-out elections has been seen as a cost-cutting measure, or a way to create more stable council administration, and has been adopted in an adhoc manner by individual councils when such arguments have won favour.
The entirety of local government is a hotch-potch mess.
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
Saturday’s Daily MAIL: “Raab: Free Speech To Get Legal Supremacy” #TomorrowsPapersToday
Ponteland has its tiny centre quartered into four wards. Each one having a huge hinterland of villages many, many miles from Ponteland.
Local government seems to exist largely to act as a scapegoat for decisions made in Westminster.
Newsnight have heard that Treasury officials urged Sunak to do something on UC to cope with cost of living.
He overruled them.
Massive, if true.
Sunak is a lay.
But I’m betting for Labour to fail to gain Barnet on my understanding of politics, the main reason they lost last time isn’t the sort of thing to melt in the face of a “New Management” sign, especially when so called “new” management was right beside old management on the last campaign trail.
People need to survive in an uncertain world.
It was merely to point that it is good to have folk from different backgrounds. Providing they are honest and halfway competent.
I believe you take the same view.
Nothing more.
It would also. be nice if fewer went to Eton.
"You have the right to free speech as long as you are not dumb enough to actually try it."
It’s a bit weird really. In the village I grew up in, where my folks moved when I was 5, we turned out to be related to half the families. Dads family more Trowbridge, mum more east Wiltshire, including sadly many uncles who didn’t make it through the war.
It does give me a sense of belonging though, which not everyone has.
If it was a matter of Coffey urging him to do so, or other Cabinet Minsters, then it would be more consequential.
I’m very drunk. And I think I’ve caught a cold.
Of course, the way the process works they often work off the most plausible overall scheme initially proposed and tweak it in later stages, so it may be that the authority itself made that suggestion initially, and it was only in Alnwick that enough people argued against it and so persuaded them to make it a twofer to keep them together?
Edit: No, looks like the council and others objected to it, but they were dismissed, so the disparity with other areas is curious.
Utterly appalling, tin eared and counter productive.
Sunak will spend the autumn statement undoing much of it.
If not before.
No wonder he looked nervous before he stood up to deliver it. Something in the back of his mind was shouting this is a turd.
It's hard to argue we are particularly well governed with a mass change every 3-5 years on average, but being small c conservative I do worry about a government being able to take a medium term view even if something which might in the long run be popular causes them to lose seats after a year. I don't credit we the public with sufficient foresight on what will end up being good policy. But it would certainly keep them on their toes.
Initially I liked the way he seemed to be competent and hard working compared to the clown.
But now I am done.
Lay.
So if he does provide more money for those who most need it, we will have to borrow it.
What I'm surprised about is that I haven't heard anything from Tory backbenchers about more money for Defence. I know Reeves mentioned it. Maybe it's just not been reported on that prominently.
And while you can request to become all-out if you think you think in the short term you will be winning seats under a by thirds approach you may not be inclined to make a switch. Most politicos I know are not fans of by thirds, but if, say, you did badly as all seats were up during the Maygasm, you might feel aggrieved.
You are saying that a government needs to be able to make decisions which the public have no ability to influence, because otherwise they will make the wrong decisions. Why not do away with elections altogether then?
The current way in which we do politics infantilises the voters. If democracy is to work then we need to have voters who are prepared to take difficult decisions.
What I thought was particularly terrible about Sunak's budget was that he completely ducked being honest with the voters about the difficulty of the situation.
No matter how insane, inefficient or incompetent.
Not summat I've thought through, mind.
On that note of bafflement, goodnight.
https://twitter.com/WashingtonPoint/status/1507336374067810306
And then there is this dark sense of humour:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOuqMViXsAAUJ9Z?format=jpg&name=900x900
As previously stated here, I had £600 on UKR to win at 4.8 and sold the bet at 3.55, banking nearly £200. UKR are currently favourites at 2.52. Value or not?
I've been thinking a bit more about this market. If UKR are able to file a team and they win - as expected - it will be a great PUCK FUTIN message. But will it actually affect the outcome of the war? I don't think so.
Ed Sheeran is about to hold a concert in Birmingham in support of UKR and the UKR band Antytila were keen to perform remotely. But they are all currently fighting the war and are soldiers in combat gear and the idea has been turned down by the organisers because of the fact that they are soldiers and the concert organisers state that the concert has "a purely humanitarian purpose".
The current Eurovision UKR entry, Kalush Orchestra, band members are also currently fighting the war. It would probably be a huge PR success if they left battle and attended Eurovision and won the vote. But it might not be possible for them to do so. It won't win them the war and it might be viewed by some voters as the wrong priority choice for them at this moment in time. And if they don't make Eurovision this time and UKR remain as an independent state, they would surely be a shoo in for next year.
So, for now, I'm keeping out of this market.
I feel sorry for you Farooq, you get more bitter with every post, sat there with Ukraine flag on both cheeks thinking only you are worthy and unless we don’t hit your level of fervour, we don’t care. We bloody do care. We are battling on for what’s right and meaningful in this world as much as everyone. But You’ve got yourself lost mate, turning on your brothers and sisters and free speech.
I’ll go and pray for you now.
The same is the case for all performing nations in case of Covid, they can record a video entry. The UK's act was in Bulgaria doing this earlier this week.