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Your regular reminder that the questions influence poll responses – politicalbetting.com
Your regular reminder that the questions influence poll responses – politicalbetting.com
A nice and telling comparison from Navigator Research pic.twitter.com/LuAcs20xxI
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But it’s not a balanced header. In fact it’s not true TSE.
Back to my original post on previous thread, US politics ganging up on White House war strategy something we should be keeping an eye on. If it moves to a Ukraine annexed into big Putin finger at west position, and US politics from left to right angry at this, does it make Biden a lame duck, and plunge democrats into electoral trouble?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-lawmakers-put-pressure-biden-help-with-transfer-european-aircraft-ukraine-2022-03-07/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10600763/Republicans-tear-Biden-administration-refusing-jets-Ukraine.html
Wordle 267 3/6*
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We are still not taking sanctions seriously enough. Surely at least 2 goals a game.
For the amusement of PBers, I provide the latest from Lorna Slater, Green MSP, and Minister in the Scottish Government - on NATO and nuclear weapons...
https://twitter.com/CallmeRayf/status/1502961817701818371
(though SeaShantyz take on this I will love to listen to)
No this is the correct answer
Wordle 267 3/6
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As of Friday the Ukranian government had raised $387 million, through private donations towards the defence of Ukraine.
It made $13.5 million on one day (Friday)
If this level of private donations continues, then it will match that of the US military aid.
At this rate, the war against Russia could be crowdfunded.
Or is that too American a reference (US name for Mondeo)
Hand them over in broad daylight while proclaiming there are "no nuclear weapons here".
Let’s say you buy a house for £200k and sell it for £300k because you want to move.
Ignoring allowances and costs you have £100k in gross profit and £80k in net profit.
So your £300k house can only be replaced with a £280k house - why would you move to a less nice property by choice?
You need rollover relief which massively reduces the tax take
The winner is…the flat-coated retriever from Norway, already a European prize winner, with the Irish Setter second.
Remember the poll tax, this would be 10 times worse
There is a plausible case for getting rid of nuclear weapons but it certainly isn't that.
Yesterday the most important Belgian movie awards were handed out.
For the first time ever it was all gender neutral. No separate categories for men and women. Everyone was super happy and excited about that!
Not 1 woman received an award.
All women were very mad afterwards.
https://twitter.com/QuintenFrancois/status/1503051502495186947 If prices fall a little and we have a less distorted market, then it would not necessarily be a less attractive house.
(Though "attractive" of a house is not really a meaningful quality, since we all have varying opinions, and in a more orderly market that would change.)
It’s a shame because residential property is woefully under taxed but that’s politics
“They want to take your home”
I think that logistics are still slowing them down as much as the Ukrainians. Quite a poor effort in truth.
So the SNP/Greens are left with the pure and slender moral argument: these weapons are awful and we cannot possess them, even if that puts us at much greater danger of being invaded like Ukraine.
That's a pretty tough sell, so she didn't even bother.
This is going to become a real issue for the Scot Gov. And underneath it all is the huge hypocrisy that iScotland would almost certainly remain in NATO and, er, rely on the iUK and US to protect it. With, erm, nukes
I do think Germany could save themselves a lot of money if instead of spending 100 billion Euro on their own defence over the next 5 years, they gave 5 billion Euros worth are arms over the next 2 weeks. and with it brought humiliated the Russians so much so that Putin never tries again or better still is overthrown.
Looking at the list of supply's on Wikipedia, (no doubt incomplete) 2,000 rifles here, 700 first aid kits, 5,000 sets of body armed, doesn't look like it will add up to much. with a few exceptions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
At present you'd pay £5,000 on stamp duty for such a move, on top of legal fees, remortaging and moving fees, so you'd also clock a "loss" in moving from one £300k home to another, which few people do.
Would it impact behaviours at the margins? Sure. All taxes do. This one would reduce trades a bit. But it'd also raise a good bit of revenue.
In reality, unless forced to by work, most people don't trade like-for-like as it doesn't make sense: they move to upgrade to a much bigger property, or downsize to take a decent profit.
“Attractive” was intended as a composite term. The great thing about a market is that the price indicates the consensus view of relative attractiveness of two assets taking everything into account
That greatly increases the risk of something going wrong or a rogue/false flag strike (as in the plot of On The Beach).
In a book Lions, Donkeys and Dinosaurs written 15 years ago that was criticised as flawed by military experts but I nevertheless found interesting, Lewis Page made this exact point. 'Nuclear weapons confer immunity from American interference up to a point, which is why everyone is so keen to get them...(footnote) Everyone really is keen to get them: this isn't scaremongering or lies. Chemical weapons are a bogey to frighten the children with - the Kaiser had them in World War One, for goodness sakes. But long range nukes are the real deal. If I were running a country, I'd want some.'
rUK would remain poodles.
(With rollover relief it is a good idea because then it hits investors and people downsizing and taking capital out of the market, without causing friction in the market for people who are moving because they have to)
Really unbelievable error of judgement
Ok this is form youtube and no idea how accurate, but apparently there where 8 helicopters 4 Mi8 and 4Mi 24 with 250 personnel on peacekeeping mission in Africa who are about to return home.
8 helicopters and 250 is not a lot, so don't expect it to change much, but when the enemy is getting bogged down, any extra forces is a bonus.
Lots of countries will be looking at the images of flattened Ukrainian cities and will be superkeen to go nuke. Japan and South Korea spring to mind. Also Saudi Arabia and maybe even the UAE. Perhaps even Poland?
You really couldn't blame Poland if it opted to take up nuclear missiles, not when you look at Kharkiv and Mariupol, which they will be doing
On topic. The problem for Biden’s White House is both managing it today, without world war 3, but also suffering when the Ukraine leaders have been escorted away and replaced like Putin’s bogus mayors, and Putin has his goons on every border post, at which point angry electorate will say White House policy has failed, won’t they, it wasn’t brave enough. This plays straight into opponents sleepy Joe caricature
The worry about all the money and equipment going to Ukraine government now is if it is too late to make a difference, and perhaps even ends up in hands of the Russians.
I’m on the side of PB posters who feel West could have been quicker, smarter and braver, and being slower, dummer and more cautious/cowardly has only made it worse. 😕
Specifically? Braver on planes and over the horizon stuff. Putin’s support to his forces from the air superiority could create a horrible shift in it now and be unfair to all the courage in the defenders
I mean look at them. They look ready for a bit of early March garden tidy. What are they going to do against professional fighting force? Look at the Molotov cocktails you have seen stockpiled on our media, look at the instances where they have valiantly fought back with these Molotov cocktails and got wiped out. 😢
Hard to believe how bad Scottish gobvernment is nowadays , after flushing more than 100M down the drain to Ferguson's we now have these muppets paying another 100M + to Turkey to build ferries. The incompetence is breathtaking.
Edit - And can’t they bring with them 20 Mig-29s that are definitely not from Poland?
Simultaneously wants Britain to surrender its nukes ((as it breaks up) but ALSO wants to do the one thing most likely to kick off WW3, when we actually might need the nukes
My suspicion is that she knows disarmament now looks stupid, weak and bad, so she is over-compensating by trying to appear militant and aggressive against Russia. A no fly zone. OK. Right you are, Nicola
Second, her aim isn't really to influence policy, but to show herself as different from Johnson (as it was through, say, most of the pandemic). In this case it's a free hit. If there is no NFZ nobody will really care what she thought, if there is, and it fails, nobody will hold it against her rather than the decision makers, and if it works, she will be able to praise her own foresight.
Finally, it gains her some attention in the press and makes her supporters purr because it shows her doing more for Ukrainians than NATO, whom they don't like.
So it isn't an error of judgement when you consider what she wants to achieve from it. It does show she has a rather warped set of priorities but we already knew that,
I don't know how accurate that article is, but it's the only real analysis I have read on the progress of the conflict.
In some ways, Brexit has helped"
https://www.economist.com/britain/2022/03/12/two-years-on-britains-capital-has-recovered-from-covid-19
Add in the inevitable closer cooperation between UK and EU on all kinds of matters, former policies are redundant and a whole new attitude will come about with many implications across the west
Fracking - the issue is that we simply don't have enough idea of what the long term costs are in the UK.
If you go to the big US shale plays, you will have massive amounts of geological data available, from core samples, to seismic, to the drilling history of 300 wells nearby. You will know the optimal well bore spacing. You will know the correct formulation of fracking fluid.
And most importantly, you will have an excellent idea of what initial flow rates will be, and what the decline curve will be.
(You also have massive ranches without people on them.)
That means that an oil & gas company can evaluate very easily what a well will produce and how expensive it will be.
We have literally none of that information in the UK. It took about fifteen years from George Mitchell fracking his first gas well to the US being in a position to export gas. Now, some things are easier now (we know fracking works for sure). But some things are harder: the US had a lot of existing infrastructure than we don't.
Fracking *may* work in the UK. But it also may not. Let's not forget that a dozen shales in the US have been effectively abandoned, because it takes only very small changes to your initial flow rate and decline curve assumptions to change the price of gas from $5 to $50/mmbtu.