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Sunak next CON leader? I’m not convinced – politicalbetting.com
Sunak next CON leader? I’m not convinced – politicalbetting.com
Sunak has been favourite for the Conservative leadership for so long now that it is almost becoming an established fact that this will eventually happen. But does he have the backing of enough MPs and is the betting price wrong?
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Mordaunt looks a better bet.
But seriously on Russia/Ukraine I've tried following Mary Dejevsky on twitter. She's a former foreign correspondent for the Times after all. It is frankly bizarre. She states that the deployment of troops on the Ukraine border could equally be a defensive move rather than an offensive one, that we should stop trying to read Putin's mind and instead just believe what he tells us (he's a straightforward fellow!) and that he really is just concerned about the expansion of Nato to Russia's borders.
There is the interesting point as to why Biden/Zelensky seem to differ so much on Russia's probability of attacking but the rest just seems barking mad.
Rishi Sunak is the Indian heritage David Miliband.
Lest we forget he is a coward who is only Chancellor because he was prepared to wear the political gimp mask handed to him by Dom Cummings.
He will not feature in any profiles in courage.
You are my favourite London club.
Edit - Feck VAR.
Meanwhile, the other day I suggested that those British who wish to rejoin the EU might be best moving to Scotland, claiming Scottish citizenship (which at the moment isn't a thing) and waiting for independence, then for Scotland to vote to join the EU. As tortuous a route as summiting K2 in winter.
There is another option and it really comes to the fore with this evening's comments by Sinn Fein deputy leader Michelle O'Neill. She's suggesting that the Irish gov't prepares for a united Ireland. She sees it as the consequence of [Boris' ridiculous] Irish sea issue. This raises the intriguing prospect that to become an EU citizen anyone in Britain might not need to claim Irish ancestry as at present but simply to be in the right place at the right time viz a viz the current Northern Ireland. Wow.
https://news.sky.com/story/sinn-fein-deputy-leader-michelle-oneill-urges-irish-government-to-prepare-for-a-united-ireland-12545895
Well, I've (my company) just received an email from some domain registration company in China saying that someone wants to register a company with the China suffix using my name (which is an unusual one) and asking if they are my distribution partner.
I assume this is a scam and I should not reply..... yes?
(This is in no way influenced by the bet I have on him. )
If a new leader is needed now then it is at a time when government and ministers have collectively acted badly, and any one of them could be destroyed by fresh revelations, and continue the cycle.
If new leader is later, economic events to come will mean the chancellor is in a sub optimal position.
His best chance has gone. Which was resignation some weeks ago.
Finally, though he is very very good he comes across as a number 2/number 3 not number 1. Similar in a sense to Ed Miliband, who is also very good but not number 1. Politicians have learned from 'the wrong brother' that you have to pick Number 1 candidate.
Footnote: Corbyn was a Number Z candidate, but was allowed to stand by democratically minded MPs like Frank Field, and elected by a dim membership. They won't make that mistake again for a bit. T May was a Number Z candidate too, but rose to the top is strange and unique circumstances.
Hunt for me would be the best bet both politically and betting wise.
The fissure within Conservative economic policy beggars belief. I don't like blaming Carrie for things but some of this does go back to her: quasi left-wing very green policies which sit at odds with the right wing conservative laissez-faire approach. But this must also be in large measure because Boris Johnson himself not only has no moral compass, but for Conservatives far more importantly he has no political compass. He's all over the bloody shop. There is no defining vision or ethos, nothing that coheres.
So we end up with a massive contradiction of policies, a spendthrift Gov't which would have made even Labour eyes water coupled with huge tax rises.
If this massive Tax and Spend had come from Jim Callaghan, Harold Wilson or that dreadful Jeremy Corbyn the press would have hounded them out of office.
I have a friend who worked very closely with him for several years and that friend was incredulous at your suggestion.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-60430720
And that's why I don't think she will get it. She's far too pleasant. Too much in touch with the common people. Too with it. Too savvy.
This isn't me being snide. It's because the people who elect the next Conservative leader are 1. Tory MPs and 2. Conservative Members.
If it was the public, or pb.com, very different story.
Oh and tory MPs are pretty misogynistic. After what they deem the nightmare of Theresa May (I thought she was okay) I don't believe they will elect another woman for a long time.
*more-or-less
Aaron Bastani @AaronBastani
Scottish nationalists want to join the EU, adopt Euro & be a part of NATO.
All perfectly fine, of course, but what is the point of independence?
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1495111938291994625
Took Sir Anthony Eden about twenty years to advance from Foreign Secretary (first appointment) to Prime Minister.
And RS reminds me of AE, though I am NOT attributing any of the latter's shortcomings to the former.
Possible that Sunak himself asked MPs to wait. He may prefer to take over later, when he can blame his boss for the NI rise, and deploy a pre-election income tax cut.
This will be one of the first wars which will be fought on the Internet and information channels as much as on the ground.
Expect lots of talks of how the west 'poked' Russia into this.
* Assuming Jeeza doesn't defect.
*Grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
I still think Putin would be making a possibly fatal mistake and that the Ukrainian army is capable of inflicting severe damage on the invading forces. Any occupation will be fiercely resisted and I am not even sure that Russia can rely on air superiority, given the large numbers of anti aircraft and drone weapons that Ukraine clearly posesses. The Estonians are suggesting that the crisis could last quite a long time if the war becomes a deadlock. Under those circumstances then the situation could get very dangerous indeed. We take refuge in rather black humour, but the prospect of another Russian occupation of the Baltic, when the last one killed a third of the population, is not something that any of us take lightly.
"I've got a degree from the university of National Union of Mine Workers in unity and in solidarity. That does me."
https://twitter.com/ucu/status/1494770858493157382
Sunak's best chance was up until a fortnight ago.
If Johnson survives until the GE, and loses, can you really see the tories regaining power after one term? I just don't see it. Not after holding the keys to Downing St since 2010. Sunak might become leader but he'll end up like William Hague, not that I think Sunak has anything like Hague's charisma.
It seems scarcely believable when put that way.
But I'll leave that right there in terms of my upbringing and current contacts.
The party in parliament is very misogynistic at the moment. They turned on Theresa May. Had her deal have been presented by a man there's a good chance it would have gone through. But they decided that her dithering was a female trait.
They had one brilliant female leader. Most of them (in parliament I mean) are resigned to the fact that she was unique.
Do not bet on another female leader of the Conservative Party anytime soon. It will be money down the drain.
I'm sure I speak for many by saying your comments on how this is viewed in Estonia adds greatly to the site.
https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1495009820314853377?s=21
The UK government - and Opposition - have been robust on this
As a woman let me be the first to say that this shouldn't be about tokenism and I don't think it's the place of men to call out misogynism.
I think Rachel Reeves looks a really good prospect. I personally really like Angela Rayner but she would be too gobby for the right wing media.
Penny Mordaunt would make a great Labour leader in the Keir Starmer real politik.
https://twitter.com/marydejevsky/status/1495021870344769543
Dear @AndrewGimson, beg to differ. #Skripals is one of most scandalous - & successful - disinfo exercises by @govUK…
https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1495117638783152128
And that's what might thwart Sunak. Bright, industrious, affable. But does he have the Killer Instinct, or is he waiting for someone to give him a promotion because he deserves it? After Boris, a reduction of Killer Instinct might be a blessed relief, but it won't get Master Sunak the keys to No 10. Head Boy maybe, but not Prime Minister.
Why would Russia risk its reputation so close to the World Cup, when it hoped to show a friendlier face to the world?
It would have been interesting if she had pursued a more bipartisan rather than sectarian approach. It may well have worked rather better.
But I remember the time they used an image from a computer game as 'proof' that the US were helping ISIS:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41991012
I had to read the bit in bold three times.
On that day, with Britain deep in the pandemic, Lister, Johnson’s chief strategic adviser, spent an hour on Microsoft Teams, answering questions and addressing the concerns of donors.
According to a source, board members — whose investments spanned property, construction and big tobacco — were alarmed by the effect of Covid-19 on their businesses.
A number of those present requested swift action, including the relaxation of measures designed to stop transmission.
Lister — whose salary was publicly funded, albeit secretly topped up by a Tory donor — was all ears, according to a witness. “It was implied that what we said would go straight up to the PM,” they said. “It was a two-way street. They gave us information on what was going on. We gave our advice.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-ultra-rich-tory-donors-with-access-to-boris-johnsons-top-team-96bvcwcxl
It makes perfect sense to me.
Could it simply be that the Corbyn Brexit fanboi Bastani doesn't understand a non-Leaver interpretation of sovereignty and independence within the EU.
Bastani is twinned with JRM.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/why-ive-changed-my-mind-on-brexit/
Or at least, he says he did. Should be noted Dr Aaron Peters is not the most reliable source in the universe.
Ukrainian interior minister and military officials come under shelling attack during tour of frontline of the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10530887/Ukrainian-interior-minister-comes-shelling-attack-tour-frontline-east-Ukraine.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
https://mobile.twitter.com/noahbarkin/followers_you_follow
But storage in Europe is pretty much at peak levels (which is very rare for this time of year), demand is falling as it warms up, and solar is going to start kicking in on the electricity supply side.
The medium term outlook for gas is also ameliorating. The US rig count is really starting to motor now (quicker than I'd expected, for sure), and if it continues then there will be a lot of spot cargoes coming out of the US this year.
Cutting off the supply of Russian gas in early winter is basically impossible. Cutting it off in March on the other hand, especially if you can secure a few tens of LNG cargoes, and suddenly it doesn't look quite so frightening. And we're only two years away from Mozambique LNG and Qatargas extensions - which will further weaken Russia's position.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-60448384
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_campaign_in_the_Baltic_(1918–1919)
One unit out of three at one power station would not be a problem. Except several other power stations have similar chimneys, and there's a non-negligible chance that there's a flaw that might take them all out of commission for a period whilst they are altered or replaced.
https://www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/storm-eunice-isle-grain-power-6685526