Truss would lead the tories to an electoral disaster.
Sunak ... I'm not sure. He's a mega-rich multimillionaire former banker. Not the best pitch especially in difficult times.
And it may all be too late for the tories. I think we've witnessed the kind of shift which happened after Black Wednesday.
I think you could be right about the Black Wednesday moment. Ironically, that's probably why the Tories are sticking with Boris - perhaps he's one of those few politicians in history who could pull a rabbit out of the hat through sheer audacity and charisma. With any of the other journeymen, they're sunk.
I expect Boris to face a vonc in the next couple of weeks and if he goes, then we will enter a period of intense scrutiny on the candidates to takeover and with the media's obsession with these things expect wall to wall conservative party coverage for upto 8 weeks, then the circus over going to the Queen followed by speculation on the new cabinet and announcements of policies by the new PM
The other parties will be crowded out and the effect on public opinion will be fascinating
The only way to avoid this is for the conservative party to do the sensible thing and back a single candidate, ensuring a coronation
However, conservative party and sensible just do not go together
Unlike Emperor Browns ludicrous coronation, without a single test, if the Tories have several rounds and one of the last 2 standing is way behind on MP support so drops out, it’s not really a coronation is it? How upset would membership really be if 75% Parliamentary party coalesce around someone - because any sensible minded member would see it insane for that person to lose a membership vote and someone with 25% MP support become leader.
The bigger problem I think is the mechanics of a stand in leader, say Boris loses vonc Monday week say Tuesday week, who is PM whilst his replacement selected. Boris not resigning favours quick contest favours Rishi.
All the mps would have to agree to nominate one candidate otherwise 2 will go forward
Raab would be stand in leader unless he stands in which case the mps need to nominate a temp leader
Johnson remains PM until a new leader is elected. Losing the leadership of the party doesn't mean he ceases to be PM (cf Thatcher).
If he decided not to perform any duties I agree about Raab being his likely substitute. However, in the event of a full flounce traditionally the Cabinet would nominate a temporary successor. Given they all know Raab I think that would count against him. They would be more likely to nominate Wallace, as the most senior minister not identified with a particular faction, or ask May or Hague to come back temporarily.
If Boris loses he will have to resign both positions unless he agrees to continue while his successor is chosen and that is accepted by the 1922
And on Wallace I expect him to stand though an obvious temp PM would be Theresa but the conservatives do not do obvious
This from a source I can't now remember, but some sort of guide for top civil servants/ministers says this about death of PM, which is analogous to PM doing an Achilles:
There is no single protocol setting out all of the possible implications. However, the general constitutional position is as set out below. There can be no automatic assumption about who The Queen would ask to act as caretaker Prime Minister in the event of the death of the Prime Minister. The decision is for her under the Royal Prerogative. However, there are some key guiding principles. The Queen would probably be looking for a very senior member of the Government (not necessarily a Commons Minister since this would be a short-term appointment). If there was a recognised deputy to the Prime Minister, used to acting on his behalf in his absences, this could be an important factor. Also important would be the question of who was likely to be in contention to take over long-term as Prime Minister. If the most senior member of the Government was him or herself a contender for the role of Prime Minister, it might be that The Queen would invite a slightly less senior non-contender. In these circumstances, her private secretary would probably take soundings, via the Cabinet Secretary, of members of the Cabinet, to ensure that The Queen invited someone who would be acceptable to the Cabinet to act as their chair during the caretaker period. Once the Party had elected a new leader, that person would, of course, be invited to take over as Prime Minister.
Eminently sensible
Unless the person who gets selected as "less senior non-contender" is Sebastian Fox.
Yes, there are some dangerously amoral lunatics in that cabinet. Dorries. Patel. Mogg. But also plenty of make Ben Swain look intelligent. Like Michael Green. Imagine if he ended up as the least worst option as Johnson flounced away and major infighting broke out.
You know that is not going to happen
Indeed I am relaxed about an interim pm and the sooner the better
I anticipate it would be Raaaaaaab as he is Depute PM. My post was hypothesising the "less senior non-contender" compromise which was proposed.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Ignore the talk of the greatest growth since the second world war: that’s just a function of the economy having collapsed so badly in 2020. Note instead the Bank of England’s forecast of 1.25% growth in 2023, falling to just 1% in 2024. David Smith, economics editor of the Sunday Times and no remoaner fanatic, puts that down partly to Covid but partly to the “adverse fiscal consequences of leaving the EU”, which left the country “with a budget hole that has had to be filled with higher taxes. We now have a high-tax economy strangled by red tape and hampered by trade restrictions..
This is always the thing I come back to that I don't get. The Tories like free trade and low regulation. Part of their push for Brexit was to get rid of bureaucrats and remove the "strangling" EU red tape like health and safety.
So surely this can't be their end game. An economy literally tied up in the stuff, where an army of our newly appointed bureaucrats waste vast sums of time and money pursuing petty and pointless red tape.
Some absolute nobbers keep trying to spin this as EU red tape. But I have to assume that most Tories aren't as stupid as Elphick and know the truth. "Just drop the checks" or even better "invoke Article 16" are not solutions, not end games. So where are they going?
It strikes me a bit like gob smacking interview from the eighties, Lady Thatcher said “Monetarism is something i have heard some people subscribe to, but I have never subdcribed to it.” Now Boris and some others just can’t go through with Brexit, Boris and other recognisable brexiteers from 2016 are blocking proper Brexit journey, bottling diverging UK from the Euro social model, just like Lady Thatcher ultimately bottled going through monetarism.
England's final match in Paris is going to be... tough.
I think our match at home vs Ireland is going to be tough too. And after seeing the U20’s lose 6-0 to Italy last night, I’m not convinced how well we’ll go tomorrow!
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Everything would have been better under Corbyn, I think, compared to what has happened. Certainly in all those areas it would. And you don't mention the Euros final and Rashford's all important penalty. Would that have gone in off the post instead of bouncing out and missing? I think it possibly would have.
@Cicero - thanks for your thoughts. How is morale in Estonia? There's a sizeable Russian ethnic minority there, is that a possible pretext for Kremlin trouble-making ?
Morale is fine, we´ve been living next to the Putin Shit show for nearly 25 years, and have been warning that this was going to happen from the beginning. The local Russians are not a monolith, and the number of supporters of Putin is small and pretty old. Many of the Russian speakers are in fact Ukrainian or Belarusian and they are not on side for Russia at all. The Baltic is not going to give up their freedom without a fight to the death, and that rather grim determination is across every group. After over forty years fighting the Estonian cause, I am not going anywhere. Admittedly its not the most comfortable living next to Mordor and there is a constant low level of anxiety, but the storm, for better or worse, seems to be about to break.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
@Cicero - thanks for your thoughts. How is morale in Estonia? There's a sizeable Russian ethnic minority there, is that a possible pretext for Kremlin trouble-making ?
Morale is fine, we´ve been living next to the Putin Shit show for nearly 25 years, and have been warning that this was going to happen from the beginning. The local Russians are not a monolith, and the number of supporters of Putin is small and pretty old. Many of the Russian speakers are in fact Ukrainian or Belarusian and they are not on side for Russia at all. The Baltic is not going to give up their freedom without a fight to the death, and that rather grim determination is across every group. After over forty years fighting the Estonian cause, I am not going anywhere. Admittedly its not the most comfortable living next to Mordor and there is a constant low level of anxiety, but the storm, for better or worse, seems to be about to break.
Remember, Gondor was next to Mordor, and it turned back the tide (with a little help from its friends),
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
Upon the stoicism and values of the civil service was the British Empire built, as all fine historians will know.
@Cicero - thanks for your thoughts. How is morale in Estonia? There's a sizeable Russian ethnic minority there, is that a possible pretext for Kremlin trouble-making ?
Morale is fine, we´ve been living next to the Putin Shit show for nearly 25 years, and have been warning that this was going to happen from the beginning. The local Russians are not a monolith, and the number of supporters of Putin is small and pretty old. Many of the Russian speakers are in fact Ukrainian or Belarusian and they are not on side for Russia at all. The Baltic is not going to give up their freedom without a fight to the death, and that rather grim determination is across every group. After over forty years fighting the Estonian cause, I am not going anywhere. Admittedly its not the most comfortable living next to Mordor and there is a constant low level of anxiety, but the storm, for better or worse, seems to be about to break.
Remember, Gondor was next to Mordor, and it turned back the tide (with a little help from its friends),
@Cicero - thanks for your thoughts. How is morale in Estonia? There's a sizeable Russian ethnic minority there, is that a possible pretext for Kremlin trouble-making ?
Morale is fine, we´ve been living next to the Putin Shit show for nearly 25 years, and have been warning that this was going to happen from the beginning. The local Russians are not a monolith, and the number of supporters of Putin is small and pretty old. Many of the Russian speakers are in fact Ukrainian or Belarusian and they are not on side for Russia at all. The Baltic is not going to give up their freedom without a fight to the death, and that rather grim determination is across every group. After over forty years fighting the Estonian cause, I am not going anywhere. Admittedly its not the most comfortable living next to Mordor and there is a constant low level of anxiety, but the storm, for better or worse, seems to be about to break.
Remember, Gondor was next to Mordor, and it turned back the tide (with a little help from its friends),
@Cicero - thanks for your thoughts. How is morale in Estonia? There's a sizeable Russian ethnic minority there, is that a possible pretext for Kremlin trouble-making ?
After over forty years fighting the Estonian cause, I am not going anywhere.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
Upon the stoicism and values of the civil service was the British Empire built, as all fine historians will know.
Is that why it was a ramshackle shitheap that only worked for the benefit of a handful of people?
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
I think Corbyn would have blown up in office inside 18 months in the same way Boris has now.
Mr. F, I can see Honorius, but which Valentinian do you mean? The angry fellow certainly had flaws but was also, from memory, the last chap to properly defend the West (though Majorian did have a good crack at it, treachery put paid to his efforts).
Valentinian III, who was told, after having Aetius murdered, "You have used your right hand to cut off your left."
On that theme, I'd recommend Brett Devereaux Unmitigated Pedantry website, which covers a lot of classical history, including his latest series on the Fall of the Western Empire.
There tends to be quite a big divide between those historians who think it didn't make much difference to peoples' lives, and those who think it was a disaster. He argues (convincingly IMHO) in favour of the latter. Archeology really does support the thesis of a sharp drop in Western European living standards in the Fifth and Sixth centuries, and a corresponding sharp drop in population. And, it was mostly the fault of the Roman elites, rather than the fault of the barbarian hordes.
Ignore the talk of the greatest growth since the second world war: that’s just a function of the economy having collapsed so badly in 2020. Note instead the Bank of England’s forecast of 1.25% growth in 2023, falling to just 1% in 2024. David Smith, economics editor of the Sunday Times and no remoaner fanatic, puts that down partly to Covid but partly to the “adverse fiscal consequences of leaving the EU”, which left the country “with a budget hole that has had to be filled with higher taxes. We now have a high-tax economy strangled by red tape and hampered by trade restrictions..
This is always the thing I come back to that I don't get. The Tories like free trade and low regulation. Part of their push for Brexit was to get rid of bureaucrats and remove the "strangling" EU red tape like health and safety.
So surely this can't be their end game. An economy literally tied up in the stuff, where an army of our newly appointed bureaucrats waste vast sums of time and money pursuing petty and pointless red tape.
Some absolute nobbers keep trying to spin this as EU red tape. But I have to assume that most Tories aren't as stupid as Elphick and know the truth. "Just drop the checks" or even better "invoke Article 16" are not solutions, not end games. So where are they going?
It strikes me a bit like gob smacking interview from the eighties, Lady Thatcher said “Monetarism is something i have heard some people subscribe to, but I have never subdcribed to it.” Now Boris and some others just can’t go through with Brexit, Boris and other recognisable brexiteers from 2016 are blocking proper Brexit journey, bottling diverging UK from the Euro social model, just like Lady Thatcher ultimately bottled going through monetarism.
What a post that is. I feel like signing, Jade D. On the bottom. 😘.
Seriously though, this is exactly how I see it - all those people saying “Brexit is done, it’s over” are laughable and so hopeless for not understanding Brexit.
Brexit has merely opened the door, not the passing through it. It’s not brexit unless you pass through to the other side and stop remaining very much the same by shadowing the European social model. Just like how Lady Thatchers first government opened the door to monetarism but didn’t go through with it, wouldn’t stand up in commons and defend the necessary next step, held back from putting it in white papers or manifesto’s. It’s history repeating itself.
Tell me where I am wrong, without embarrassing yourself further by saying Brexit was 100% about bringing sovereignty and democracy back and now it’s 100% over.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
I think Corbyn would have blown up in office inside 18 months in the same way Boris has now.
I think that’s right. Never in British history have the electorate been presented with two such egregiously unsuitable candidates for PM as they were in 2019.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
I think Corbyn would have blown up in office inside 18 months in the same way Boris has now.
I think that’s right. Never in British history have the electorate been presented with two such egregiously unsuitable candidates for PM as they were in 2019.
Totally agree with you both, so sharp.
Shame for betting game we could not have had them in parallel to see if either could have got beyond the 2 year mark before something funny happened on the way to the forum and sanity prevailed.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
I think Corbyn would have blown up in office inside 18 months in the same way Boris has now.
I think that’s right. Never in British history have the electorate been presented with two such egregiously unsuitable candidates for PM as they were in 2019.
My sense is that we're starting to moderate a bit more towards the middle now (on both sides).
Ignore the talk of the greatest growth since the second world war: that’s just a function of the economy having collapsed so badly in 2020. Note instead the Bank of England’s forecast of 1.25% growth in 2023, falling to just 1% in 2024. David Smith, economics editor of the Sunday Times and no remoaner fanatic, puts that down partly to Covid but partly to the “adverse fiscal consequences of leaving the EU”, which left the country “with a budget hole that has had to be filled with higher taxes. We now have a high-tax economy strangled by red tape and hampered by trade restrictions..
This is always the thing I come back to that I don't get. The Tories like free trade and low regulation. Part of their push for Brexit was to get rid of bureaucrats and remove the "strangling" EU red tape like health and safety.
So surely this can't be their end game. An economy literally tied up in the stuff, where an army of our newly appointed bureaucrats waste vast sums of time and money pursuing petty and pointless red tape.
Some absolute nobbers keep trying to spin this as EU red tape. But I have to assume that most Tories aren't as stupid as Elphick and know the truth. "Just drop the checks" or even better "invoke Article 16" are not solutions, not end games. So where are they going?
It strikes me a bit like gob smacking interview from the eighties, Lady Thatcher said “Monetarism is something i have heard some people subscribe to, but I have never subdcribed to it.” Now Boris and some others just can’t go through with Brexit, Boris and other recognisable brexiteers from 2016 are blocking proper Brexit journey, bottling diverging UK from the Euro social model, just like Lady Thatcher ultimately bottled going through monetarism.
What a post that is. I feel like signing, Jade D. On the bottom. 😘.
Seriously though, this is exactly how I see it - all those people saying “Brexit is done, it’s over” are laughable and so hopeless for not understanding Brexit.
Brexit has merely opened the door, not the passing through it. It’s not brexit unless you pass through to the other side and stop remaining very much the same by shadowing the European social model. Just like how Lady Thatchers first government opened the door to monetarism but didn’t go through with it, wouldn’t stand up in commons and defend the necessary next step, held back from putting it in white papers or manifesto’s. It’s history repeating itself.
Tell me where I am wrong, without embarrassing yourself further by saying Brexit was 100% about bringing sovereignty and democracy back and now it’s 100% over.
I have a slight peeve with people using the term "Lady Thatcher" to refer to her during her time in office. It's anachronistic.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
I think Corbyn would have blown up in office inside 18 months in the same way Boris has now.
I think that’s right. Never in British history have the electorate been presented with two such egregiously unsuitable candidates for PM as they were in 2019.
My sense is that we're starting to moderate a bit more towards the middle now (on both sides).
Thankfully, the UK is not the USA.
Certainly with Labour, but where's the evidence in the Conservatives? Boris is floating in the bowl, and there has been no serious move to flush him. The only hard evidence we have is that +85% of Conservative MPs are not willing to oust him at the moment.
Ignore the talk of the greatest growth since the second world war: that’s just a function of the economy having collapsed so badly in 2020. Note instead the Bank of England’s forecast of 1.25% growth in 2023, falling to just 1% in 2024. David Smith, economics editor of the Sunday Times and no remoaner fanatic, puts that down partly to Covid but partly to the “adverse fiscal consequences of leaving the EU”, which left the country “with a budget hole that has had to be filled with higher taxes. We now have a high-tax economy strangled by red tape and hampered by trade restrictions..
This is always the thing I come back to that I don't get. The Tories like free trade and low regulation. Part of their push for Brexit was to get rid of bureaucrats and remove the "strangling" EU red tape like health and safety.
So surely this can't be their end game. An economy literally tied up in the stuff, where an army of our newly appointed bureaucrats waste vast sums of time and money pursuing petty and pointless red tape.
Some absolute nobbers keep trying to spin this as EU red tape. But I have to assume that most Tories aren't as stupid as Elphick and know the truth. "Just drop the checks" or even better "invoke Article 16" are not solutions, not end games. So where are they going?
It strikes me a bit like gob smacking interview from the eighties, Lady Thatcher said “Monetarism is something i have heard some people subscribe to, but I have never subdcribed to it.” Now Boris and some others just can’t go through with Brexit, Boris and other recognisable brexiteers from 2016 are blocking proper Brexit journey, bottling diverging UK from the Euro social model, just like Lady Thatcher ultimately bottled going through monetarism.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
I think Corbyn would have blown up in office inside 18 months in the same way Boris has now.
I think that’s right. Never in British history have the electorate been presented with two such egregiously unsuitable candidates for PM as they were in 2019.
My sense is that we're starting to moderate a bit more towards the middle now (on both sides).
Thankfully, the UK is not the USA.
Certainly with Labour, but where's the evidence in the Conservatives? Boris is floating in the bowl, and there has been no serious move to flush him. The only hard evidence we have is that +85% of Conservative MPs are not willing to oust him at the moment.
That's not evidence that they're all peeling off to the far right though, it's evidence of cowardice.
Today is Abraham Lincoln's birthday, which I think deserves more celebration than it currently receives in the United States. (In my opinion, that 's because so many of our journalists have adopted what I call a "warts only" attitude toward American history. Only those historical stories that reflect badly on the United States, they have decided, deserve coverage, now. It's my impression that something similar has happened among academics in Britain.)
The speech is short, and well worth reading, especially the astonishing final paragraph:
With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.
That speech was given near the end of our great Civil War, still, by many measures the worst war the United States has ever had.
A clammy thaw here in Tallinn, which means that the soft ground of the Pripyat marshes, 600 miles south of here are also getting more difficult for armoured columns to get across. The "exercises" are scheduled to end next Sunday, so this is the critical week.
The general feeling on the Baltic is that Putin is now in a trap, and if the Kremlin choses to go into Ukraine, they will face a price that will rattle Putin´s teeth. Even now, with only limited official sanctions, the outlook for the Russian economy is pretty bleak, with the local markets now trading at over 25% yield and dramatic pressure on the Rouble. More seriously, the risk is that if they do go in, and they face determined resistance, then they will not be able to hold on. Invasion is one thing, occupation quite another. Even a limited objective of expansion of the Donbas pocket and possible recognition of the DNR/LNR seals the political perimeter of Ukraine and increases the costs to Russia while ending the hope of using Donbas as a Trojan horse. Invasion is a very risky option, and the consequences of immediate NATO reinforcement and the entry of Sweden and Finland leaves Russia drastically weaker then before, and with its economy deadlocked by sanctions.
Second option is that the exercises stop and the troops go back to barracks next week. However this is a drastic climb down and reduces Putin´s credibility massively and still incurs costs, albeit far less that launching a war.
Third option is that Scholz (with US blessing) acts as a "good cop" from the Russian point of view and a face saver is announced on Wednesday. Yet this is not a done deal, and the previous Russian demands and intransigence will make this effectively a climb down, albeit that from the Russian point of view has the benefit that it might increase the tension between Germany and the CEE members of NATO.
Russia simply does not have the strength to face down a united and determined NATO response and the wonks in the Biden west wing and the Pentagon seem to have kept the whole alliance on side while the Russians blundered into a losing situation. The US revenge for Trump and all the other needling could force a major strategic turn in Moscow that in the medium disconnects from China and reengages with the West, which removes a threat on the Eastern flank and leaves XI Jinping incresingly isolated. The point being that Washington now sees the end of the Russo-Chinese repprochement as a goal worth having.
So, even though it still feels like we are on the wall at Helms Deep, the determination to defend NATO in being is giving us a lot of reassurance. The recklessness and arrogance of Putin seems to have led Russia into a trap of its own making, and although the crisis point is now more or less upon us, there is a sense that Washington and NATO have made clear and effective decisions and that Putin must now play a very bad hand at great risk to himself and his regime.
I certainly hope you're right. But, I do fear this is the real deal, and that Putin underestimates the risks he is taking.
I think the problem is that Putin has never regretted amping the pressure and going to the next step. It's his MO, keep the pressure on until your opponent folds.
And with the Germans compliant, and the Chinese keen to needle the West, it all looked good for him.
In Biden, though, he has found a stubborn old man who isn't willing to lie down. And Russia has a shrinking window of opportunity as oil and gas drilling starts ramping up.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
Upon the stoicism and values of the civil service was the British Empire built, as all fine historians will know.
Is that why it was a ramshackle shitheap that only worked for the benefit of a handful of people?
In terms of our relationship with history, understanding and sharing, is it not important to start somewhere, like the position you have there, but, history is a social science, like all science question it continuously (being the definition of science: to question) so be prepared to move from the original position, if convinced by answers to the questions?
Today is Abraham Lincoln's birthday, which I think deserves more celebration than it currently receives in the United States. (In my opinion, that 's because so many of our journalists have adopted what I call a "warts only" attitude toward American history. Only those historical stories that reflect badly on the United States, they have decided, deserve coverage, now. It's my impression that something similar has happened among academics in Britain.)
The speech is short, and well worth reading, especially the astonishing final paragraph: With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.
That speech was given near the end of our great Civil War, still, by many measures the worst war the United States has ever had.
Ignore the talk of the greatest growth since the second world war: that’s just a function of the economy having collapsed so badly in 2020. Note instead the Bank of England’s forecast of 1.25% growth in 2023, falling to just 1% in 2024. David Smith, economics editor of the Sunday Times and no remoaner fanatic, puts that down partly to Covid but partly to the “adverse fiscal consequences of leaving the EU”, which left the country “with a budget hole that has had to be filled with higher taxes. We now have a high-tax economy strangled by red tape and hampered by trade restrictions..
This is always the thing I come back to that I don't get. The Tories like free trade and low regulation. Part of their push for Brexit was to get rid of bureaucrats and remove the "strangling" EU red tape like health and safety.
So surely this can't be their end game. An economy literally tied up in the stuff, where an army of our newly appointed bureaucrats waste vast sums of time and money pursuing petty and pointless red tape.
Some absolute nobbers keep trying to spin this as EU red tape. But I have to assume that most Tories aren't as stupid as Elphick and know the truth. "Just drop the checks" or even better "invoke Article 16" are not solutions, not end games. So where are they going?
It strikes me a bit like gob smacking interview from the eighties, Lady Thatcher said “Monetarism is something i have heard some people subscribe to, but I have never subdcribed to it.” Now Boris and some others just can’t go through with Brexit, Boris and other recognisable brexiteers from 2016 are blocking proper Brexit journey, bottling diverging UK from the Euro social model, just like Lady Thatcher ultimately bottled going through monetarism.
What a post that is. I feel like signing, Jade D. On the bottom. 😘.
Seriously though, this is exactly how I see it - all those people saying “Brexit is done, it’s over” are laughable and so hopeless for not understanding Brexit.
Brexit has merely opened the door, not the passing through it. It’s not brexit unless you pass through to the other side and stop remaining very much the same by shadowing the European social model. Just like how Lady Thatchers first government opened the door to monetarism but didn’t go through with it, wouldn’t stand up in commons and defend the necessary next step, held back from putting it in white papers or manifesto’s. It’s history repeating itself.
Tell me where I am wrong, without embarrassing yourself further by saying Brexit was 100% about bringing sovereignty and democracy back and now it’s 100% over.
I have a slight peeve with people using the term "Lady Thatcher" to refer to her during her time in office. It's anachronistic.
Wasn’t she called Lady Thatcher at the time?
She’s always been Lady Thatcher when I’ve been alive.
On the basis that you defund failure and reward success, we should take every penny away from the british Winter Olympics team, and give it to london fintech Next time, buy your own bobsleigh
A clammy thaw here in Tallinn, which means that the soft ground of the Pripyat marshes, 600 miles south of here are also getting more difficult for armoured columns to get across. The "exercises" are scheduled to end next Sunday, so this is the critical week.
The general feeling on the Baltic is that Putin is now in a trap, and if the Kremlin choses to go into Ukraine, they will face a price that will rattle Putin´s teeth. Even now, with only limited official sanctions, the outlook for the Russian economy is pretty bleak, with the local markets now trading at over 25% yield and dramatic pressure on the Rouble. More seriously, the risk is that if they do go in, and they face determined resistance, then they will not be able to hold on. Invasion is one thing, occupation quite another. Even a limited objective of expansion of the Donbas pocket and possible recognition of the DNR/LNR seals the political perimeter of Ukraine and increases the costs to Russia while ending the hope of using Donbas as a Trojan horse. Invasion is a very risky option, and the consequences of immediate NATO reinforcement and the entry of Sweden and Finland leaves Russia drastically weaker then before, and with its economy deadlocked by sanctions.
Second option is that the exercises stop and the troops go back to barracks next week. However this is a drastic climb down and reduces Putin´s credibility massively and still incurs costs, albeit far less that launching a war.
Third option is that Scholz (with US blessing) acts as a "good cop" from the Russian point of view and a face saver is announced on Wednesday. Yet this is not a done deal, and the previous Russian demands and intransigence will make this effectively a climb down, albeit that from the Russian point of view has the benefit that it might increase the tension between Germany and the CEE members of NATO.
Russia simply does not have the strength to face down a united and determined NATO response and the wonks in the Biden west wing and the Pentagon seem to have kept the whole alliance on side while the Russians blundered into a losing situation. The US revenge for Trump and all the other needling could force a major strategic turn in Moscow that in the medium disconnects from China and reengages with the West, which removes a threat on the Eastern flank and leaves XI Jinping incresingly isolated. The point being that Washington now sees the end of the Russo-Chinese repprochement as a goal worth having.
So, even though it still feels like we are on the wall at Helms Deep, the determination to defend NATO in being is giving us a lot of reassurance. The recklessness and arrogance of Putin seems to have led Russia into a trap of its own making, and although the crisis point is now more or less upon us, there is a sense that Washington and NATO have made clear and effective decisions and that Putin must now play a very bad hand at great risk to himself and his regime.
I certainly hope you're right. But, I do fear this is the real deal, and that Putin underestimates the risks he is taking.
I think the problem is that Putin has never regretted amping the pressure and going to the next step. It's his MO, keep the pressure on until your opponent folds.
And with the Germans compliant, and the Chinese keen to needle the West, it all looked good for him.
In Biden, though, he has found a stubborn old man who isn't willing to lie down. And Russia has a shrinking window of opportunity as oil and gas drilling starts ramping up.
And that is also a problem.
Putin is an old man. Looking for a legacy, Legacy for Kings is how big the pile of skulls is.
If he turns back now - he may well be dead.
If he goes forward - well, at 70, how many more years?
Today is Abraham Lincoln's birthday, which I think deserves more celebration than it currently receives in the United States. (In my opinion, that 's because so many of our journalists have adopted what I call a "warts only" attitude toward American history. Only those historical stories that reflect badly on the United States, they have decided, deserve coverage, now. It's my impression that something similar has happened among academics in Britain.)
The speech is short, and well worth reading, especially the astonishing final paragraph:
With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.
That speech was given near the end of our great Civil War, still, by many measures the worst war the United States has ever had.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
Today is Abraham Lincoln's birthday, which I think deserves more celebration than it currently receives in the United States. (In my opinion, that 's because so many of our journalists have adopted what I call a "warts only" attitude toward American history. Only those historical stories that reflect badly on the United States, they have decided, deserve coverage, now. It's my impression that something similar has happened among academics in Britain.)
The speech is short, and well worth reading, especially the astonishing final paragraph:
With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.
That speech was given near the end of our great Civil War, still, by many measures the worst war the United States has ever had.
A great man
Didn’t know ‘Just for Men’ was available back then.
Today is Abraham Lincoln's birthday, which I think deserves more celebration than it currently receives in the United States. (In my opinion, that 's because so many of our journalists have adopted what I call a "warts only" attitude toward American history. Only those historical stories that reflect badly on the United States, they have decided, deserve coverage, now. It's my impression that something similar has happened among academics in Britain.)
The speech is short, and well worth reading, especially the astonishing final paragraph:
With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.
That speech was given near the end of our great Civil War, still, by many measures the worst war the United States has ever had.
A great man
Also, allegedly, a Melungeon - and looking at those photos you have to think Hmmm
A clammy thaw here in Tallinn, which means that the soft ground of the Pripyat marshes, 600 miles south of here are also getting more difficult for armoured columns to get across. The "exercises" are scheduled to end next Sunday, so this is the critical week.
The general feeling on the Baltic is that Putin is now in a trap, and if the Kremlin choses to go into Ukraine, they will face a price that will rattle Putin´s teeth. Even now, with only limited official sanctions, the outlook for the Russian economy is pretty bleak, with the local markets now trading at over 25% yield and dramatic pressure on the Rouble. More seriously, the risk is that if they do go in, and they face determined resistance, then they will not be able to hold on. Invasion is one thing, occupation quite another. Even a limited objective of expansion of the Donbas pocket and possible recognition of the DNR/LNR seals the political perimeter of Ukraine and increases the costs to Russia while ending the hope of using Donbas as a Trojan horse. Invasion is a very risky option, and the consequences of immediate NATO reinforcement and the entry of Sweden and Finland leaves Russia drastically weaker then before, and with its economy deadlocked by sanctions.
Second option is that the exercises stop and the troops go back to barracks next week. However this is a drastic climb down and reduces Putin´s credibility massively and still incurs costs, albeit far less that launching a war.
Third option is that Scholz (with US blessing) acts as a "good cop" from the Russian point of view and a face saver is announced on Wednesday. Yet this is not a done deal, and the previous Russian demands and intransigence will make this effectively a climb down, albeit that from the Russian point of view has the benefit that it might increase the tension between Germany and the CEE members of NATO.
Russia simply does not have the strength to face down a united and determined NATO response and the wonks in the Biden west wing and the Pentagon seem to have kept the whole alliance on side while the Russians blundered into a losing situation. The US revenge for Trump and all the other needling could force a major strategic turn in Moscow that in the medium disconnects from China and reengages with the West, which removes a threat on the Eastern flank and leaves XI Jinping incresingly isolated. The point being that Washington now sees the end of the Russo-Chinese repprochement as a goal worth having.
So, even though it still feels like we are on the wall at Helms Deep, the determination to defend NATO in being is giving us a lot of reassurance. The recklessness and arrogance of Putin seems to have led Russia into a trap of its own making, and although the crisis point is now more or less upon us, there is a sense that Washington and NATO have made clear and effective decisions and that Putin must now play a very bad hand at great risk to himself and his regime.
I certainly hope you're right. But, I do fear this is the real deal, and that Putin underestimates the risks he is taking.
I think the problem is that Putin has never regretted amping the pressure and going to the next step. It's his MO, keep the pressure on until your opponent folds.
And with the Germans compliant, and the Chinese keen to needle the West, it all looked good for him.
In Biden, though, he has found a stubborn old man who isn't willing to lie down. And Russia has a shrinking window of opportunity as oil and gas drilling starts ramping up.
I'm not sure the Germans are compliant as such. Two of the parties in the coalition are anti-Putin and Scholz has to keep them onside to keep his coalition together. As always though Germany is reluctant to engage militarily.
Today is Abraham Lincoln's birthday, which I think deserves more celebration than it currently receives in the United States. (In my opinion, that 's because so many of our journalists have adopted what I call a "warts only" attitude toward American history. Only those historical stories that reflect badly on the United States, they have decided, deserve coverage, now. It's my impression that something similar has happened among academics in Britain.)
The speech is short, and well worth reading, especially the astonishing final paragraph:
With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.
That speech was given near the end of our great Civil War, still, by many measures the worst war the United States has ever had.
A great man
Didn’t know ‘Just for Men’ was available back then.
You jest - but friends and foes were astonished by what the Civil War did to Lincoln. Even that prize asshat Alexander Stephens remarked on the change in Lincoln, with sympathy.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
I think Corbyn would have blown up in office inside 18 months in the same way Boris has now.
I think that’s right. Never in British history have the electorate been presented with two such egregiously unsuitable candidates for PM as they were in 2019.
My sense is that we're starting to moderate a bit more towards the middle now (on both sides).
Thankfully, the UK is not the USA.
In 2016 and 2020 though the Democratic candidate was moderate and non populist. It was Hillary then Biden v Trump, never Bernie Sanders v Trump which would have been the mirror image of Corbyn v Johnson in the UK in 2019
Ignore the talk of the greatest growth since the second world war: that’s just a function of the economy having collapsed so badly in 2020. Note instead the Bank of England’s forecast of 1.25% growth in 2023, falling to just 1% in 2024. David Smith, economics editor of the Sunday Times and no remoaner fanatic, puts that down partly to Covid but partly to the “adverse fiscal consequences of leaving the EU”, which left the country “with a budget hole that has had to be filled with higher taxes. We now have a high-tax economy strangled by red tape and hampered by trade restrictions..
This is always the thing I come back to that I don't get. The Tories like free trade and low regulation. Part of their push for Brexit was to get rid of bureaucrats and remove the "strangling" EU red tape like health and safety.
So surely this can't be their end game. An economy literally tied up in the stuff, where an army of our newly appointed bureaucrats waste vast sums of time and money pursuing petty and pointless red tape.
Some absolute nobbers keep trying to spin this as EU red tape. But I have to assume that most Tories aren't as stupid as Elphick and know the truth. "Just drop the checks" or even better "invoke Article 16" are not solutions, not end games. So where are they going?
It strikes me a bit like gob smacking interview from the eighties, Lady Thatcher said “Monetarism is something i have heard some people subscribe to, but I have never subdcribed to it.” Now Boris and some others just can’t go through with Brexit, Boris and other recognisable brexiteers from 2016 are blocking proper Brexit journey, bottling diverging UK from the Euro social model, just like Lady Thatcher ultimately bottled going through monetarism.
What a post that is. I feel like signing, Jade D. On the bottom. 😘.
Seriously though, this is exactly how I see it - all those people saying “Brexit is done, it’s over” are laughable and so hopeless for not understanding Brexit.
Brexit has merely opened the door, not the passing through it. It’s not brexit unless you pass through to the other side and stop remaining very much the same by shadowing the European social model. Just like how Lady Thatchers first government opened the door to monetarism but didn’t go through with it, wouldn’t stand up in commons and defend the necessary next step, held back from putting it in white papers or manifesto’s. It’s history repeating itself.
Tell me where I am wrong, without embarrassing yourself further by saying Brexit was 100% about bringing sovereignty and democracy back and now it’s 100% over.
I have a slight peeve with people using the term "Lady Thatcher" to refer to her during her time in office. It's anachronistic.
We never seem to agree Farooq! I’m not saying you are wrong to peeve, Is it not the done thing to refer to one after death just as they were referred before death?
What about the point I am actually saying, Brexit is an open door, you’ve not brexited properly till you have passed through. Boris and his cabinet are brexit blockers - just like when “Mrs Thatch” bottled going through with monetarism.
On the basis that you defund failure and reward success, we should take every penny away from the british Winter Olympics team, and give it to london fintech Next time, buy your own bobsleigh
The Winter Olympics is the spiritual home of trash sport.
When's the Removing The Frost From Car Windscreens competition?
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
My impression is that Corbyn would have struggled to make any decisions. He would have found himself locked in conflict with the 'establishment', sticking to his principles, leading to stagnation and a lot of frustration. I would guess he would declare his intention to refer the matter of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the labour party conference before deciding how to act.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
A clammy thaw here in Tallinn, which means that the soft ground of the Pripyat marshes, 600 miles south of here are also getting more difficult for armoured columns to get across. The "exercises" are scheduled to end next Sunday, so this is the critical week.
The general feeling on the Baltic is that Putin is now in a trap, and if the Kremlin choses to go into Ukraine, they will face a price that will rattle Putin´s teeth. Even now, with only limited official sanctions, the outlook for the Russian economy is pretty bleak, with the local markets now trading at over 25% yield and dramatic pressure on the Rouble. More seriously, the risk is that if they do go in, and they face determined resistance, then they will not be able to hold on. Invasion is one thing, occupation quite another. Even a limited objective of expansion of the Donbas pocket and possible recognition of the DNR/LNR seals the political perimeter of Ukraine and increases the costs to Russia while ending the hope of using Donbas as a Trojan horse. Invasion is a very risky option, and the consequences of immediate NATO reinforcement and the entry of Sweden and Finland leaves Russia drastically weaker then before, and with its economy deadlocked by sanctions.
Second option is that the exercises stop and the troops go back to barracks next week. However this is a drastic climb down and reduces Putin´s credibility massively and still incurs costs, albeit far less that launching a war.
Third option is that Scholz (with US blessing) acts as a "good cop" from the Russian point of view and a face saver is announced on Wednesday. Yet this is not a done deal, and the previous Russian demands and intransigence will make this effectively a climb down, albeit that from the Russian point of view has the benefit that it might increase the tension between Germany and the CEE members of NATO.
Russia simply does not have the strength to face down a united and determined NATO response and the wonks in the Biden west wing and the Pentagon seem to have kept the whole alliance on side while the Russians blundered into a losing situation. The US revenge for Trump and all the other needling could force a major strategic turn in Moscow that in the medium disconnects from China and reengages with the West, which removes a threat on the Eastern flank and leaves XI Jinping incresingly isolated. The point being that Washington now sees the end of the Russo-Chinese repprochement as a goal worth having.
So, even though it still feels like we are on the wall at Helms Deep, the determination to defend NATO in being is giving us a lot of reassurance. The recklessness and arrogance of Putin seems to have led Russia into a trap of its own making, and although the crisis point is now more or less upon us, there is a sense that Washington and NATO have made clear and effective decisions and that Putin must now play a very bad hand at great risk to himself and his regime.
I certainly hope you're right. But, I do fear this is the real deal, and that Putin underestimates the risks he is taking.
I think the problem is that Putin has never regretted amping the pressure and going to the next step. It's his MO, keep the pressure on until your opponent folds.
And with the Germans compliant, and the Chinese keen to needle the West, it all looked good for him.
In Biden, though, he has found a stubborn old man who isn't willing to lie down. And Russia has a shrinking window of opportunity as oil and gas drilling starts ramping up.
And that is also a problem.
Putin is an old man. Looking for a legacy, Legacy for Kings is how big the pile of skulls is.
If he turns back now - he may well be dead.
If he goes forward - well, at 70, how many more years?
Die a hero of the Soviet! Union! Komrade!
Or just another arsehole, like Yeltsin.....
How many leaders of the Soviet Union or Russia have made it significantly past the age of 70?
I can think of Chernenko, Brezhnev (the oldest at 76) and Stalin. I can't offhand think of any others. Khrushchev was removed when he was 70, and Yeltsin and Andropov were both 68-69. The Tsars tended to die fairly young - in fact I've got a feeling Alexander IiI may have been the oldest of them, 63 when he was assassinated.
So it's not surprising if he is thinking about his own mortality.
A clammy thaw here in Tallinn, which means that the soft ground of the Pripyat marshes, 600 miles south of here are also getting more difficult for armoured columns to get across. The "exercises" are scheduled to end next Sunday, so this is the critical week.
The general feeling on the Baltic is that Putin is now in a trap, and if the Kremlin choses to go into Ukraine, they will face a price that will rattle Putin´s teeth. Even now, with only limited official sanctions, the outlook for the Russian economy is pretty bleak, with the local markets now trading at over 25% yield and dramatic pressure on the Rouble. More seriously, the risk is that if they do go in, and they face determined resistance, then they will not be able to hold on. Invasion is one thing, occupation quite another. Even a limited objective of expansion of the Donbas pocket and possible recognition of the DNR/LNR seals the political perimeter of Ukraine and increases the costs to Russia while ending the hope of using Donbas as a Trojan horse. Invasion is a very risky option, and the consequences of immediate NATO reinforcement and the entry of Sweden and Finland leaves Russia drastically weaker then before, and with its economy deadlocked by sanctions.
Second option is that the exercises stop and the troops go back to barracks next week. However this is a drastic climb down and reduces Putin´s credibility massively and still incurs costs, albeit far less that launching a war.
Third option is that Scholz (with US blessing) acts as a "good cop" from the Russian point of view and a face saver is announced on Wednesday. Yet this is not a done deal, and the previous Russian demands and intransigence will make this effectively a climb down, albeit that from the Russian point of view has the benefit that it might increase the tension between Germany and the CEE members of NATO.
Russia simply does not have the strength to face down a united and determined NATO response and the wonks in the Biden west wing and the Pentagon seem to have kept the whole alliance on side while the Russians blundered into a losing situation. The US revenge for Trump and all the other needling could force a major strategic turn in Moscow that in the medium disconnects from China and reengages with the West, which removes a threat on the Eastern flank and leaves XI Jinping incresingly isolated. The point being that Washington now sees the end of the Russo-Chinese repprochement as a goal worth having.
So, even though it still feels like we are on the wall at Helms Deep, the determination to defend NATO in being is giving us a lot of reassurance. The recklessness and arrogance of Putin seems to have led Russia into a trap of its own making, and although the crisis point is now more or less upon us, there is a sense that Washington and NATO have made clear and effective decisions and that Putin must now play a very bad hand at great risk to himself and his regime.
I certainly hope you're right. But, I do fear this is the real deal, and that Putin underestimates the risks he is taking.
I think the problem is that Putin has never regretted amping the pressure and going to the next step. It's his MO, keep the pressure on until your opponent folds.
And with the Germans compliant, and the Chinese keen to needle the West, it all looked good for him.
In Biden, though, he has found a stubborn old man who isn't willing to lie down. And Russia has a shrinking window of opportunity as oil and gas drilling starts ramping up.
And that is also a problem.
Putin is an old man. Looking for a legacy, Legacy for Kings is how big the pile of skulls is.
If he turns back now - he may well be dead.
If he goes forward - well, at 70, how many more years?
Die a hero of the Soviet! Union! Komrade!
Or just another arsehole, like Yeltsin.....
How many leaders of the Soviet Union or Russia have made it significantly past the age of 70?
I can think of Chernenko, Brezhnev (the oldest at 76) and Stalin. I can't offhand think of any others. Khrushchev was removed when he was 70, and Yeltsin and Andropov were both 68-69. The Tsars tended to die fairly young - in fact I've got a feeling Alexander IiI may have been the oldest of them, 63 when he was assassinated.
So it's not surprising if he is thinking about his own mortality.
Gorbachev, by far the best Russian President of my lifetime
Quite an impressive ZERO medals for Britain in the Narnia Olympics
We’re actually being beaten by that well known frozen alpine sporting giant Belgium, which at least has a bronze
Britain is historically extremely weak in the Winter Games, and the team only did as well as it did in the last two editions because of the Bath Uni tea tray squad, who have comprehensively bombed this time (along, so far, with almost all the rest of the British entrants; I think there's been one fourth place and one fifth place finish and that's about it.)
There are three realistic chances left to win something of which I'm aware (courtesy of the Scottish curling teams and one decent entrant in the Men's Slalom skiing) and most likely one or two more that I don't know about, since I don't follow these things closely, but the pressure will be building on the BOA.
Whatever your opinion on the merits or otherwise of state funding for Olympic athletes, if the medal return on it turns out to be the first zilch in thirty years, then the £28m of funding that's gone into elite Winter sports since 2018 - mostly in events that attract negligible public participation - is bound to be seriously questioned.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
I thought we had that sorted?
We have a possible arrangement. But as it doesn't include starving Blast Ended Skrewts I am still open to further offers.
A clammy thaw here in Tallinn, which means that the soft ground of the Pripyat marshes, 600 miles south of here are also getting more difficult for armoured columns to get across. The "exercises" are scheduled to end next Sunday, so this is the critical week.
The general feeling on the Baltic is that Putin is now in a trap, and if the Kremlin choses to go into Ukraine, they will face a price that will rattle Putin´s teeth. Even now, with only limited official sanctions, the outlook for the Russian economy is pretty bleak, with the local markets now trading at over 25% yield and dramatic pressure on the Rouble. More seriously, the risk is that if they do go in, and they face determined resistance, then they will not be able to hold on. Invasion is one thing, occupation quite another. Even a limited objective of expansion of the Donbas pocket and possible recognition of the DNR/LNR seals the political perimeter of Ukraine and increases the costs to Russia while ending the hope of using Donbas as a Trojan horse. Invasion is a very risky option, and the consequences of immediate NATO reinforcement and the entry of Sweden and Finland leaves Russia drastically weaker then before, and with its economy deadlocked by sanctions.
Second option is that the exercises stop and the troops go back to barracks next week. However this is a drastic climb down and reduces Putin´s credibility massively and still incurs costs, albeit far less that launching a war.
Third option is that Scholz (with US blessing) acts as a "good cop" from the Russian point of view and a face saver is announced on Wednesday. Yet this is not a done deal, and the previous Russian demands and intransigence will make this effectively a climb down, albeit that from the Russian point of view has the benefit that it might increase the tension between Germany and the CEE members of NATO.
Russia simply does not have the strength to face down a united and determined NATO response and the wonks in the Biden west wing and the Pentagon seem to have kept the whole alliance on side while the Russians blundered into a losing situation. The US revenge for Trump and all the other needling could force a major strategic turn in Moscow that in the medium disconnects from China and reengages with the West, which removes a threat on the Eastern flank and leaves XI Jinping incresingly isolated. The point being that Washington now sees the end of the Russo-Chinese repprochement as a goal worth having.
So, even though it still feels like we are on the wall at Helms Deep, the determination to defend NATO in being is giving us a lot of reassurance. The recklessness and arrogance of Putin seems to have led Russia into a trap of its own making, and although the crisis point is now more or less upon us, there is a sense that Washington and NATO have made clear and effective decisions and that Putin must now play a very bad hand at great risk to himself and his regime.
I certainly hope you're right. But, I do fear this is the real deal, and that Putin underestimates the risks he is taking.
I think the problem is that Putin has never regretted amping the pressure and going to the next step. It's his MO, keep the pressure on until your opponent folds.
And with the Germans compliant, and the Chinese keen to needle the West, it all looked good for him.
In Biden, though, he has found a stubborn old man who isn't willing to lie down. And Russia has a shrinking window of opportunity as oil and gas drilling starts ramping up.
And that is also a problem.
Putin is an old man. Looking for a legacy, Legacy for Kings is how big the pile of skulls is.
If he turns back now - he may well be dead.
If he goes forward - well, at 70, how many more years?
Die a hero of the Soviet! Union! Komrade!
Or just another arsehole, like Yeltsin.....
How many leaders of the Soviet Union or Russia have made it significantly past the age of 70?
I can think of Chernenko, Brezhnev (the oldest at 76) and Stalin. I can't offhand think of any others. Khrushchev was removed when he was 70, and Yeltsin and Andropov were both 68-69. The Tsars tended to die fairly young - in fact I've got a feeling Alexander IiI may have been the oldest of them, 63 when he was assassinated.
So it's not surprising if he is thinking about his own mortality.
Gorbachev, by far the best Russian President of my lifetime
Gorbachev was 62 when he left office.
I realise I could have phrased my criteria more clearly. I meant, 'how many have stayed in office much past the age of 70?'
Admittedly, it's usually coterminous with death...
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
Point of accuracy. I’ve never been a civil servant at the DfE. So I wouldn’t be upset.
Quite an impressive ZERO medals for Britain in the Narnia Olympics
We’re actually being beaten by that well known frozen alpine sporting giant Belgium, which at least has a bronze
Britain is historically extremely weak in the Winter Games, and the team only did as well as it did in the last two editions because of the Bath Uni tea tray squad, who have comprehensively bombed this time (along, so far, with almost all the rest of the British entrants; I think there's been one fourth place and one fifth place finish and that's about it.)
There are three realistic chances left to win something of which I'm aware (courtesy of the Scottish curling teams and one decent entrant in the Men's Slalom skiing) and most likely one or two more that I don't know about, since I don't follow these things closely, but the pressure will be building on the BOA.
Whatever your opinion on the merits or otherwise of state funding for Olympic athletes, if the medal return on it turns out to be the first zilch in thirty years, then the £28m of funding that's gone into elite Winter sports since 2018 - mostly in events that attract negligible public participation - is bound to be seriously questioned.
They only get any money at all because posh people love skiing. If you ask most British people to name a famous sportsman from the winter Olympics they would say Eddie the Eagle and maybe the Jamaican bobsleigh team, and that's it.
Ignore the talk of the greatest growth since the second world war: that’s just a function of the economy having collapsed so badly in 2020. Note instead the Bank of England’s forecast of 1.25% growth in 2023, falling to just 1% in 2024. David Smith, economics editor of the Sunday Times and no remoaner fanatic, puts that down partly to Covid but partly to the “adverse fiscal consequences of leaving the EU”, which left the country “with a budget hole that has had to be filled with higher taxes. We now have a high-tax economy strangled by red tape and hampered by trade restrictions..
Brexit was always a dog-t*rd wrapped in Xmas paper. Now that the Leavers have opened the wrapping....
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
Here's one. A counterfactual. Corbyn could have been PM. Winning in 2017 means an election due in May 2022 under FTPA, and Corbyn still in power. What with Russia and Ukraine and all that, to say nothing of that referendum in 2016, where would we now be with regards to:
Russia, Ukraine, USA, NATO, nukes, Brexit, Palestine, polling, Tory leadership. Etc.
Half of PB would have emigrated. Corbyn would have pulled the UK out of NATO and declared a special relationship with Russia and Iran. We would either have had EUref2 or Brexit plus a Customs Union. The top income tax rate would be 70% and public spending at 60% of gdp, having renationalised most companies Thatcher and Major and Cameron privatised, Corbyn would now be trying to nationalise Mcdonalds and Tesco.
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
I think Corbyn would have blown up in office inside 18 months in the same way Boris has now.
I think that’s right. Never in British history have the electorate been presented with two such egregiously unsuitable candidates for PM as they were in 2019.
My sense is that we're starting to moderate a bit more towards the middle now (on both sides).
Thankfully, the UK is not the USA.
Certainly with Labour, but where's the evidence in the Conservatives? Boris is floating in the bowl, and there has been no serious move to flush him. The only hard evidence we have is that +85% of Conservative MPs are not willing to oust him at the moment.
Sunak, Hunt and Truss would all form very different administrations, probably with all them in it, and a mix of talent from across the party.
However, the Tories may be for the chop anyway simply due to longevity and because I can't see how they get past the economic storms of the next 2 years.
Quite an impressive ZERO medals for Britain in the Narnia Olympics
We’re actually being beaten by that well known frozen alpine sporting giant Belgium, which at least has a bronze
Britain is historically extremely weak in the Winter Games, and the team only did as well as it did in the last two editions because of the Bath Uni tea tray squad, who have comprehensively bombed this time (along, so far, with almost all the rest of the British entrants; I think there's been one fourth place and one fifth place finish and that's about it.)
There are three realistic chances left to win something of which I'm aware (courtesy of the Scottish curling teams and one decent entrant in the Men's Slalom skiing) and most likely one or two more that I don't know about, since I don't follow these things closely, but the pressure will be building on the BOA.
Whatever your opinion on the merits or otherwise of state funding for Olympic athletes, if the medal return on it turns out to be the first zilch in thirty years, then the £28m of funding that's gone into elite Winter sports since 2018 - mostly in events that attract negligible public participation - is bound to be seriously questioned.
They only get any money at all because posh people love skiing. If you ask most British people to name a famous sportsman from the winter Olympics they would say Eddie the Eagle and maybe the Jamaican bobsleigh team, and that's it.
Our performance has been downhill all the way as a result.
On the basis that you defund failure and reward success, we should take every penny away from the british Winter Olympics team, and give it to london fintech Next time, buy your own bobsleigh
The Winter Olympics is the spiritual home of trash sport.
When's the Removing The Frost From Car Windscreens competition?
I find this kind of sneering disdain for sports that aren't much played in dear old Britain utterly pathetic.
This country is sinking further and further down the plughole.
That's Brexit for you. Boris got Brexit done and we became a shithole.
There was a time when almost the entire nation was glued to the screen to watch Torville and Dean at the winter olympics.
Robin Cousins and John Curry likewise.
But the same is true of the summer athletics when we ruled the middle distance: Seb Coe, Steve Ovett, Steve Cram.
Just because we're not very good right now doesn't mean we diss the sports. That's playground. If you don't like losing at a sport, don't blame the sport. Get good at it.
- Cases. Down. R below 1 and falling in all measures - Hospital admissions. R below 1. Down. - MV Beds. Down - In Hospital. Down. - Deaths. Down and and the fall is accelerating.
Astonishingly good poll for Boris, even with the methodology change. The Tories would likely win most seats in a hung parliament after the boundary changes if just 3% behind, even if Starmer became PM with SNP support.
Indeed, Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 280, Labour 276 on the new Opinium numbers once the boundary changes are accounted for
Astonishingly good poll for Boris, even with the methodology change. The Tories would likely win most seats in a hung parliament after the boundary changes if just 3% behind, even if Starmer became PM with SNP support
Under our old methodology the result would have been Con 32% Lab 42% Lib Dem 9% Green 5%
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
I thought we had that sorted?
We have a possible arrangement. But as it doesn't include starving Blast Ended Skrewts I am still open to further offers.
You had a better offer than the entire DfE participating in the first manned landing on the Sun?
Astonishingly good poll for Boris, even with the methodology change. The Tories would likely win most seats in a hung parliament after the boundary changes if just 3% behind, even if Starmer became PM with SNP support
No it isn't. If you bother to read the Twitter thread instead of clutching at the headline numbers like a drowning man clings on to a life jacket, you would read further down:
Under our old methodology the result would have been Con 32% Lab 42% Lib Dem 9% Green 5% So there is no evidence that Labour’s position has weakened over the past two weeks
Astonishingly good poll for Boris, even with the methodology change. The Tories would likely win most seats in a hung parliament after the boundary changes if just 3% behind, even if Starmer became PM with SNP support
No it isn't. If you bother to read the Twitter thread instead of clutching at the headline numbers like a drowning man clings on to a life jacket, you would read further down:
Under our old methodology the result would have been Con 32% Lab 42% Lib Dem 9% Green 5% So there is no evidence that Labour’s position has weakened over the past two weeks
Oh HY! It’s been flagged up to you all day, don’t be daft enough to say that. 🙄
Quite an impressive ZERO medals for Britain in the Narnia Olympics
We’re actually being beaten by that well known frozen alpine sporting giant Belgium, which at least has a bronze
Britain is historically extremely weak in the Winter Games, and the team only did as well as it did in the last two editions because of the Bath Uni tea tray squad, who have comprehensively bombed this time (along, so far, with almost all the rest of the British entrants; I think there's been one fourth place and one fifth place finish and that's about it.)
There are three realistic chances left to win something of which I'm aware (courtesy of the Scottish curling teams and one decent entrant in the Men's Slalom skiing) and most likely one or two more that I don't know about, since I don't follow these things closely, but the pressure will be building on the BOA.
Whatever your opinion on the merits or otherwise of state funding for Olympic athletes, if the medal return on it turns out to be the first zilch in thirty years, then the £28m of funding that's gone into elite Winter sports since 2018 - mostly in events that attract negligible public participation - is bound to be seriously questioned.
They only get any money at all because posh people love skiing. If you ask most British people to name a famous sportsman from the winter Olympics they would say Eddie the Eagle and maybe the Jamaican bobsleigh team, and that's it.
We should just withdraw from the Winter Olympics. Seriously. Who gives a flying iota of a micro-fuck?
Why not start our own “spring Olympics”. The best Cotswold cheese rolling. The first dogging after the last frost. Cricket in unseasonable sleet
We’d win. Give them half a mill. Defund the wanky posh winter crap
- Cases. Down. R below 1 and falling in all measures - Hospital admissions. R below 1. Down. - MV Beds. Down - In Hospital. Down. - Deaths. Down and and the fall is accelerating.
I've always wondered, do you have images ready for the complete scale?
Astonishingly good poll for Boris, even with the methodology change. The Tories would likely win most seats in a hung parliament after the boundary changes if just 3% behind, even if Starmer became PM with SNP support
No it isn't. If you bother to read the Twitter thread instead of clutching at the headline numbers like a drowning man clings on to a life jacket, you would read further down:
Under our old methodology the result would have been Con 32% Lab 42% Lib Dem 9% Green 5% So there is no evidence that Labour’s position has weakened over the past two weeks
The key is it takes better account of election day voters with a committed voting intention to make it more accurate, most of those undecided voted Tory in 2019
Astonishingly good poll for Boris, even with the methodology change. The Tories would likely win most seats in a hung parliament after the boundary changes if just 3% behind, even if Starmer became PM with SNP support
No it isn't. If you bother to read the Twitter thread instead of clutching at the headline numbers like a drowning man clings on to a life jacket, you would read further down:
Under our old methodology the result would have been Con 32% Lab 42% Lib Dem 9% Green 5% So there is no evidence that Labour’s position has weakened over the past two weeks
I really did not expect any real changes and 3% seems very much an outlier
Quite an impressive ZERO medals for Britain in the Narnia Olympics
We’re actually being beaten by that well known frozen alpine sporting giant Belgium, which at least has a bronze
Britain is historically extremely weak in the Winter Games, and the team only did as well as it did in the last two editions because of the Bath Uni tea tray squad, who have comprehensively bombed this time (along, so far, with almost all the rest of the British entrants; I think there's been one fourth place and one fifth place finish and that's about it.)
There are three realistic chances left to win something of which I'm aware (courtesy of the Scottish curling teams and one decent entrant in the Men's Slalom skiing) and most likely one or two more that I don't know about, since I don't follow these things closely, but the pressure will be building on the BOA.
Whatever your opinion on the merits or otherwise of state funding for Olympic athletes, if the medal return on it turns out to be the first zilch in thirty years, then the £28m of funding that's gone into elite Winter sports since 2018 - mostly in events that attract negligible public participation - is bound to be seriously questioned.
One thing, whoever has procured the skeleton bobs needs firing. Laura Deas run was technically very good but her sled let her down badly. The snowboard equipment OTOH has been top notch, Charlotte Banks was a bit unlucky to not get a medal these games.
So, does an open thread mean we're encouraged to bring something new to the table for discussion, as per the old nightowls protocols? Let me go away and have a think...
I think means The Screaming Eagles is having a romantic weekend away, so headers cupboard is bare. 🙂
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
I can submit a thread header on what should happen to all civil servants at the DfE, but it might upset @Northern_Al so I won't.
I thought we had that sorted?
We have a possible arrangement. But as it doesn't include starving Blast Ended Skrewts I am still open to further offers.
You had a better offer than the entire DfE participating in the first manned landing on the Sun?
Not yet, but I'm willing to keep options open should one materialise.
I am also concerned at the thought of that critical mass of bone being injected into the sun. The gravimetric distortions might have a most unfortunate effect.
Quite an impressive ZERO medals for Britain in the Narnia Olympics
We’re actually being beaten by that well known frozen alpine sporting giant Belgium, which at least has a bronze
Britain is historically extremely weak in the Winter Games, and the team only did as well as it did in the last two editions because of the Bath Uni tea tray squad, who have comprehensively bombed this time (along, so far, with almost all the rest of the British entrants; I think there's been one fourth place and one fifth place finish and that's about it.)
There are three realistic chances left to win something of which I'm aware (courtesy of the Scottish curling teams and one decent entrant in the Men's Slalom skiing) and most likely one or two more that I don't know about, since I don't follow these things closely, but the pressure will be building on the BOA.
Whatever your opinion on the merits or otherwise of state funding for Olympic athletes, if the medal return on it turns out to be the first zilch in thirty years, then the £28m of funding that's gone into elite Winter sports since 2018 - mostly in events that attract negligible public participation - is bound to be seriously questioned.
One thing, whoever has procured the skeleton bobs needs firing. Laura Deas run was technically very good but her sled let her down badly. The snowboard equipment OTOH has been top notch, Charlotte Banks was a bit unlucky to not get a medal these games.
Comments
https://thetruthaboutunemployment.wordpress.com/2012/09/17/the-reintroduction-of-mass-unemployment-in-the-1970s-80s/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10233401/Lord-Frost-warns-Brexit-FAIL-unless-UK-cuts-taxes.html
No incredibly subtle metaphor involving soccer mom and STV for us today? 😕
We probably would still be restrictions free now as Piers Corbyn would likely be Health Secretary, though most of the population would be unvaccinated. Boris would be Leader of the Opposition and miles ahead in the polls
Rayner Fan boys take note, the lob is the way to go.
On that theme, I'd recommend Brett Devereaux Unmitigated Pedantry website, which covers a lot of classical history, including his latest series on the Fall of the Western Empire.
There tends to be quite a big divide between those historians who think it didn't make much difference to peoples' lives, and those who think it was a disaster. He argues (convincingly IMHO) in favour of the latter. Archeology really does support the thesis of a sharp drop in Western European living standards in the Fifth and Sixth centuries, and a corresponding sharp drop in population. And, it was mostly the fault of the Roman elites, rather than the fault of the barbarian hordes.
Seriously though, this is exactly how I see it - all those people saying “Brexit is done, it’s over” are laughable and so hopeless for not understanding Brexit.
Brexit has merely opened the door, not the passing through it. It’s not brexit unless you pass through to the other side and stop remaining very much the same by shadowing the European social model. Just like how Lady Thatchers first government opened the door to monetarism but didn’t go through with it, wouldn’t stand up in commons and defend the necessary next step, held back from putting it in white papers or manifesto’s. It’s history repeating itself.
Tell me where I am wrong, without embarrassing yourself further by saying Brexit was 100% about bringing sovereignty and democracy back and now it’s 100% over.
Shame for betting game we could not have had them in parallel to see if either could have got beyond the 2 year mark before something funny happened on the way to the forum and sanity prevailed.
Thankfully, the UK is not the USA.
Here is a link to an article on my favorite Lincoln speech, his Second Inaugural: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Lincoln's_second_inaugural_address
The speech is short, and well worth reading, especially the astonishing final paragraph: That speech was given near the end of our great Civil War, still, by many measures the worst war the United States has ever had.
And with the Germans compliant, and the Chinese keen to needle the West, it all looked good for him.
In Biden, though, he has found a stubborn old man who isn't willing to lie down. And Russia has a shrinking window of opportunity as oil and gas drilling starts ramping up.
https://blog.nationalarchives.gov.uk/uk-government-did-we-rule-the-empire-with-4000-civil-servants/
https://scholarworks.uark.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2446&context=etd
We’re actually being beaten by that well known frozen alpine sporting giant Belgium, which at least has a bronze
She’s always been Lady Thatcher when I’ve been alive.
Next time, buy your own bobsleigh
Putin is an old man. Looking for a legacy, Legacy for Kings is how big the pile of skulls is.
If he turns back now - he may well be dead.
If he goes forward - well, at 70, how many more years?
Die a hero of the Soviet! Union! Komrade!
Or just another arsehole, like Yeltsin.....
You are aware it’s a youngish team this time?
A great man
Institute for Gov
@instituteforgov
The Downing Street chief of staff is the PM’s most senior political adviser. But what exactly does their role involve? How and when did it arise? And who has been chief of staff before?
https://instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/downing-street-chiefs-staff
https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1492502501202952199
Didn’t know ‘Just for Men’ was available back then.
Also, allegedly, a Melungeon - and looking at those photos you have to think Hmmm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melungeon
You jest - but friends and foes were astonished by what the Civil War did to Lincoln. Even that prize asshat Alexander Stephens remarked on the change in Lincoln, with sympathy.
What about the point I am actually saying, Brexit is an open door, you’ve not brexited properly till you have passed through. Boris and his cabinet are brexit blockers - just like when “Mrs Thatch” bottled going through with monetarism.
When's the Removing The Frost From Car Windscreens competition?
I can think of Chernenko, Brezhnev (the oldest at 76) and Stalin. I can't offhand think of any others. Khrushchev was removed when he was 70, and Yeltsin and Andropov were both 68-69. The Tsars tended to die fairly young - in fact I've got a feeling Alexander IiI may have been the oldest of them, 63 when he was assassinated.
So it's not surprising if he is thinking about his own mortality.
There are three realistic chances left to win something of which I'm aware (courtesy of the Scottish curling teams and one decent entrant in the Men's Slalom skiing) and most likely one or two more that I don't know about, since I don't follow these things closely, but the pressure will be building on the BOA.
Whatever your opinion on the merits or otherwise of state funding for Olympic athletes, if the medal return on it turns out to be the first zilch in thirty years, then the £28m of funding that's gone into elite Winter sports since 2018 - mostly in events that attract negligible public participation - is bound to be seriously questioned.
I realise I could have phrased my criteria more clearly. I meant, 'how many have stayed in office much past the age of 70?'
Admittedly, it's usually coterminous with death...
ETA - my mistake, he was only 60, not 62.
They got what they wished for.
However, the Tories may be for the chop anyway simply due to longevity and because I can't see how they get past the economic storms of the next 2 years.
It's without parallels.
Ah, my ski jacket...
This country is sinking further and further down the plughole.
That's Brexit for you. Boris got Brexit done and we became a shithole.
Labour 3% ahead
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1492589323916509184?t=72SBYk2bAzkB1Nd1t0H0Ng&s=19
Robin Cousins and John Curry likewise.
But the same is true of the summer athletics when we ruled the middle distance: Seb Coe, Steve Ovett, Steve Cram.
Just because we're not very good right now doesn't mean we diss the sports. That's playground. If you don't like losing at a sport, don't blame the sport. Get good at it.
The Johnson recovery continues.
- Cases. Down. R below 1 and falling in all measures
- Hospital admissions. R below 1. Down.
- MV Beds. Down
- In Hospital. Down.
- Deaths. Down and and the fall is accelerating.
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-27th-january-2022-2/
Indeed, Electoral Calculus gives Conservatives 280, Labour 276 on the new Opinium numbers once the boundary changes are accounted for
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34&LAB=37&LIB=11&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Con 32%
Lab 42%
Lib Dem 9%
Green 5%
Under our old methodology the result would have been
Con 32%
Lab 42%
Lib Dem 9%
Green 5%
So there is no evidence that Labour’s position has weakened over the past two weeks
The Coalition are back ahead on the primary vote, 37% to 35% for Labor and just a point behind on 2PP
https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights
Why not start our own “spring Olympics”. The best Cotswold cheese rolling. The first dogging after the last frost. Cricket in unseasonable sleet
We’d win. Give them half a mill. Defund the wanky posh winter crap
This week…
43% would prefer a Lab government led by Starmer
34% would prefer a Con government led by Johnson
23% Don’t know
..I’m not sure how that looks “good” for Boris
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zv9hxyc
I am also concerned at the thought of that critical mass of bone being injected into the sun. The gravimetric distortions might have a most unfortunate effect.