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Labour reaches new high with Savanta Comres – politicalbetting.com
Labour reaches new high with Savanta Comres – politicalbetting.com
?NEW Westminster Voting Intention?11pt lead for Labour?Con 33 (+1)?Lab 44 (+4)?LDM 9 (-2)?Grn 3 (-1)??SNP 4 (-1)??Other 8 (=)2,283 UK adults, 28-30 Jan(Changes from 21-23 Jan) pic.twitter.com/oAABJZPiEM
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Conservative Party MPs can initiate a no confidence vote in the leader when 15% (54 MPs) of Conservative MPs write to the chair of the party’s 1922 Committee (a committee representing backbench Conservative MPs).
The no confidence vote is then scheduled by the chair in consultation with the party leader. MPs then vote in support or against the leader. This can happen quickly. For example, the no confidence vote in Theresa May was held on 12 December 2018, the day after she was informed that the 15% threshold had been reached. May needed 159 MPs to support her to stay in office, and won the vote by 200 to 117.
Under current rules, if more than 50% of all Conservative MPs (181 MPs) vote in support of the prime minister, they can stay as party leader and prime minister and no new vote can be triggered for 12 months.
If the leader lost the confidence vote among Conservative MPs, they would not be able to stand again – allowing any other Conservative MP to stand for the party leadership.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests
https://fullfact.org/law/conservative-leadership-contest/
Is the MRLP running?
It is tedious having to say this every day
Not just a theoretical point, I'm teaching about this in a week or so!
Any guidance gratefully received.
He’s just tweeted “He's finished. 'Push what is falling'”
So the Institute of Government and Full Fact know better than you.
Call in the tanks.
Just at the ensuing election I believe.
You will be suggesting he storms the 1922 next - whoops you have
Shame on you
Boris Johnson was in the Downing St flat the night of the ‘Abba music’ event being investigated by police for potential Covid rule breaches.
With @HarryYorke1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/01/boris-johnson-downing-street-flat-night-abba-themed-party-held/
Similarly, if Johnson decided to sulk Brady would just ignore him and hold a vote anyway, then the House of Commons would vote in his successor.
The Trump option doesn't work here.
I’m playing the world’s smallest violin for Boris right now.
"Background information
A leadership contest can be triggered in two ways:
If 15% of Conservative MPs write to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee saying they no longer have confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party, orif the current leader resigns.
A leader losing the confidence of the Parliamentary party is not allowed to participate in the resulting leadership election."
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01366/
If that is correct, then it *is* on the face of it still possible to do a Major, but conversely if bj is vonced he is out and can't stand again, no requirement for him to resign
Sue Gray’s investigation into lockdown parties this week revealed several events that had not previously been publicised, including a gathering on 14 January 2021 “on the departure of two No 10 private secretaries”. But the redacted report revealed no further details.
Sources said the event was held in Downing Street in part as a leaving do for a senior policy adviser who is now a top civil servant working in the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport.
Prosecco is alleged to have been drunk by some staff, with Johnson understood to have given a speech thanking the official for their work and staying for around five minutes.
England’s third national Covid lockdown came into force just over a week earlier, on 6 January, with a “stay at home” order banning people from leaving their home except for a handful of reasons including where it was not possible to work from home. The previous month, the prime minister had effectively cancelled Christmas for millions of people amid surging Covid cases.
The revelation places Johnson at another event under investigation by Scotland Yard.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/01/boris-johnson-attended-leaving-do-during-strict-january-lockdown
As I said yesterday the flat 'party' will finish him but better to do it now
"Take a chance on me"?
"SOS"?
As for post-VONC Boris, if he tries to squat, don't those who voted against him just form their own block in Parliament until sense reigns again? A PM's mandate is being continually tested in a way that a US President's isn't. Ugly, sure, but it may come to that. A defeated Boris may well gnaw his limbs off and them claim he can't move.
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It is is the resignation in the party rules which prevent the re-nomination, not the loss of a VONC
I did not suggest, I queried 'would we see'
My response
Making any reference to it at all shames you
It is utterly shocking and contemptible
He would be out though very quickly in the ballot of MPs though. They aren't crazy.
And it won't be Boris.
Sorry hideous url. If you search that for confidence or 15% you draw a blank. I'm inclined to have faith in the HoC library though
There's a section on eligibility.
One ineligibility is having lost a VOC that trigger the latest leadership contest.
Night PB.
The current rules, known as the ‘Hague rules’, were introduced in 1998.
They were initially set out in principle in the Conservative document The
Fresh Future.
9 This document formed the basis for reforms to the
organisation of the Conservative Party following its defeat in the 1997
general election.
In July 1997, the then party leader William Hague gave a speech
outlining six principles which underpinned his vision for a new direction
for the Party. These principles – unity, decentralisation, democracy,
involvement, integrity and openness – fed into the publication of the
consultation paper Blueprint for Change,
10 presented to the Party’s
conference in October 1997.
Each principle formed a chapter heading in The Fresh Future policy
paper. The leadership rules were set out in the chapter headed
“Democracy: giving power to the members” and formed part of thestrategy to make the Party more accessible and responsive to Party
members in the constituencies and to increase Party membership.
At the time of announcing his intention to resign in 2005, Michael
Howard announced that the system of electing a Conservative Party
leader was to be reviewed and changed (see section 4 below). However,
the changes proposed by the review did not secure enough support to
be implemented and the 1998 rules were the basis on which the new
leader was elected in 2005
From the HoC briefing paper
That's a 12% swing from Conservative to Labour on UNS and in marginal seats and with tactical voting, I would think any Conservative MP facing a Labour challenge and with a majority vulnerable to a 15-18% swing will be worried.
The CON-LD swing is a more modest 4.5% but with tactical voting by Labour supporters that could put any Conservative facing a Lib Dem challenger and having a majority vulnerable to a 10% swing could be under threat.
My personal view is Com Res has overcooked the Labour number slightly and undercooked the LD number slightly so a 9-10 point Labour lead with the LDs in low double digits looks more reasonable.
The future of the party and the nation could therefore now depend on the filing system of Lord Hague and the chair of the 1922 cttee. They would need a legible record from 1998 saying clearly that a Tory party leader who loses a VONC is automatically ineligible from standing again in a leadership election
They involved leaving events for No10 figures who are now
- a senior diplomat in US
- a senior figure in Navy
- a senior Culture Dep official
Suggestive that Johnson is certain he'll lose the vote and is trying to browbeat MPs into thinking there's no point in holding one.
However, if TSE could track down the source fo the rules in less than an hour, this seems unlikely to cut much ice.
Which is another reason he should not be left in place as PM.
From now on it's empty slogans to hide the lack of meaningful changes or any spending of money.
And what scandal, listing three super-cities and having Paris come first. 'A new local government body' to monitor local performance and policies is a red flag, like manifestoes promising new government departments - I assume it means localism but controlled by Whitehall. The devolution promise doesn't look good to me, the chaotic nature of it to date, different from place to place, is part of the hold up and confusion.
It’s woefully unambitious.
Boris Corbyn truly is the heir to the original.
Amazing to think that, just six months ago, most distinguished commentators had written Starmer off as a dud. Some (e.g. me, for example) always argued that he should be given at least two years to prove himself (or not). Still two months to go to that milestone.
Gerrymandering is brilliant at optimising your conversion of votes into seats- ideally, you want lots of tight wins, and your opponent to waste lots of votes in ubersafe seats and near-misses.
Downisde is that, if you overestimate your total vote, you end up narrowly losing everywhere...
She should do what George III did to Portland, North and Fox in 1783, demand their seals by courier 'because personal meetings under these circumstances are likely to be painful.'
We must wait for the full Sue Gray report before making any judgements - she will undoubtedly show the Tories on course to win a majority of 704 at the next election.