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The Conservative Party’s Johnson problem – politicalbetting.com
The Conservative Party’s Johnson problem – politicalbetting.com
Theresa May had also previously been more popular than her party, and substantially so. However, this was forever changed by the botched 2017 general election campaign, and thereafter she was generally seen in the same terms as her partyhttps://t.co/9cwH9Ak0uw pic.twitter.com/LDhhAxwlGR
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/57192773
Surely you mean the opposite of redux?
You also give me heart that if somehow the tories do get re-elected, they aren't all bad people.
Those who disagree with you like HYUFD should really read your thread carefully but I don't think they will. And therein lies your greatest peril. For as long as there are sufficiently large numbers, including writers at the Daily Mail, who believe Brand Boris is invincible then catastrophe awaits the party.
* And trying to tell them that he won anyway against an unelectable Jeremy Corbyn is like pushing water uphill
Fulham announce death of fan who suffered a cardiac arrest in the stands during their Championship clash against Blackpool... and thank those who used flags to give the stricken supporter privacy when the match was stopped.
Something very odd is happening and I can’t work out what. From time to time you would hear that someone had died at a football match, but it was rare.
This season, not a match day goes by without a game being stopped because of someone being taken ill in the stands. Perhaps this always happened, and the players just played on but now that’s not considered acceptable. But it all seems very strange.
Boris Johnson - Net favourability
England -30
Wales -54
Scotland -58
N Ireland -77
(Survation/Daily Mail; 25 January; sample size 1,117)
Mr. Dickson, one country.
This talk of four nations or four countries is wrong, and not something the short-sighted buffoons of Westminster should encourage (obviously, I can see why a Scottish separatist would approve of such terms).
It only takes a tiny return to the traditional ABC voting behaviour of Scotland*, combined with rural SLD sympathisers drifting back ‘home’, for the Conservative & Unionist representation to be wiped out north of the border. Again.
‘Muscular Unionism’ has failed. Blame Gove.
(* in Scotland, it was Ruth Davidson rather than David Cameron who managed to temporarily slightly detoxify the brand.)
HMG
The Commons
The Lords
BBC (especially the BBC)
It is not difficult to find references to England, Scotland or Wales being nations or countries from Establishment figures and organisations. For the simple reason that they are. In a lot of ways they are all states too, as in distinct legal jurisdictions.
And that’s before you even get to us plebs and what we identify as. Statistics abound. DYOR.
It has always been one of the weirder attributes of Unionism that they love to howl at the moon. Howl all you like: the moon ain’t going anywhere.
British nationalists and British separatists have failed at lots of things, but their biggest failure has been their inability to eradicate England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales and Englishness, Scottishness, Irishness and Welshness. They came very close in Wales, and Scotland wobbled during bits of the 18th century (the ‘North Britain’ thing did partially catch on for a while). But Victorian romanticism ended all such attempts: many iconic institutions, monuments etc which reinforce the 4 country identity were actually promulgated by the Victorian establishment. The current generation of Unionists can’t change any of that now. It’s far too late.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/57192773
"England were cruising. They needed 45 from 60 balls with seven wickets left."
It's not funny, it's not clever, it's boorish.
Sunak tried to distance himself from it recently but this joint piece in the Sunday Times today has him fully tied to it.
*Yeah, the NI-GB trade border is dumb. Almost as if triggering Article 50 prematurely wasn't a clever idea, or making a peace deal that was contingent on us being in the EU forever wasn't terribly smart.
Or someone else's retweets of her tweets. This paragraph is added solely to mollify Vanilla's broken formatting.
I think each of the four nations should, if they wish, be separate.
Brighton and Hove City Council accused of ‘indoctrinating’ children though five-year plan for anti-racist education system" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/29/children-aged-seven-taught-not-racially-innocent/
It's very disagreeable. Grow up and move on and stop tarring an entire nation with a silly, childish, outdated adjective.
But here’s a wee hint: it doesn’t involve banging on about Britain being “one country” (sic) or “one nation” (sic). That’s for the birds.
FWIW I couldn’t care less about the Union. But first and foremost it is a currency union. Walk away from the union and you walk away from the pound.
Even impositions like the poll tax, which more than any other single factor set in train current movement to Scottish independence, hardly amounts to subjugation and oppression.
The foolish complacency (a hallmark of New Labour's approach to the UK) in establishing devolved political bodies everywhere that isn't England set up permanent political dividing lines. This naturally led to greater division. Likewise, using language that way promotes the idea of separation as if we're already parted.
As for 'banging on about it', well, you brought it up. And I disagreed with it. I know it's irksome when people disagree with one's view, but there we have it.
Given the complacency of previous politicians and the infantile, self-absorbed cretin currently squatting in Number 10, I'm not holding my breath for a great promotion of the union from those presently in power.
The Barnett Formula is a classic Whitehall “fix”: it’s implementation got rid of the annual squabbling.
That completely undermines your point. An independent Scotland can keep HMQ as head of state. They can’t remain part of the pound currency union.
We had a medical emergency at our parkrun last weekend. Doesn't happen very often but I'd guess at least once every year or so. And that's a few hundred relatively fit people.
What they didn't appreciate was being left in the very awkward limbo they've ended up in due to Boris Johnson's career-saving capitulation to the EU.
That said, given the soft socialist policies he has implemented, the Party will be less likely to give him the benefit of the doubt.
In the age of covid and culture wars, on the verge of a major cost of living crisis, I’m not sure we’re going through a normal electoral cycle. The supplementaries in the polling certainly suggest that. However, given we now know how flawed the 2010-2015 polling was, I’m not clear when we last did go through what is regarded as a normal electoral cycle.
What’s more, I’d also argue that given the supine failure of all those Tory ministers and MPs, who know just how catastrophically bad Johnson is, to do anything about it, he probably is the best chance they have of turning things around.
My current sense is that we’re probably looking at a 2010-style GE result next time around, with Labour winning most seats but no majority. A propos other current discussions on here it would be interesting to see how the SNP plays that.
The culture we live in today is very recent, and it has not stood the test of time. I am doubtful that it will survive.
So no, not one country.
Russia, on the other hand, is currently going through an absolute horror show, where all the population declines of the last 70 years seem to be coming home to roost at once over Covid.
I’m sure HMQ would be upset if Scotland went independent. But it’s not a big concern of mine to be honest.
Boris Johnson's PPS gave round-the-clock help to activists behind animal airlift from Kabul
She said she'd send docs to PM's office + even call Carrie Johnson to speed things up
Activist later texted Carrie thanking PM for his support
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/animal-activists-thanked-pm-and-wife-for-airlift-help-p8g0lv80j
EDIT: I’ve linked to a mail article, but I knew about it because the game was delayed for 30 mins. That’s how I know this is different.
I disagree with the rest of what you said as well, incidentally. Local laws do not a separate country make. Although the foolish dickery of constitutional tinkering inflicted on the UK by Labour has certainly deepened divisions.
"Educated, motivated, often strongly Christian, with democratic ideals, good English and – importantly – not inconsiderable funds, they share a desire to make a new life and “not to be any trouble”...
Most now fleeing Hong Kong are bringing their money with them and are, as one technology company boss keen on employing as many as possible said last week: “Plug and play – they are ready to work, and work smartly, from day one. We have been hugely impressed.”...
There is another sub-theme, too; they are vocally grateful to Britain – and specifically to the Conservative Government – for letting them take refuge here and are patriotic towards their new country."
Somewhat to my surprise even the comments section is mostly in favour of letting them in so far.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/30/britain-attractive-thousands-fleeing-hong-kong/
I’m assuming you are talking about the medical incidents not that stopping of play
As RBS, Ulster Bank et al have to lodge an equivalent value of gold / English banknotes with the Bank of England the defacto currency union works. Issue of paper currency is devolved out to the respective nations / dependencies.
As other - albeit smaller - non-UK nations manage to do this it is simply incorrect for you to state that not being a member of the UK means no sterling union. that already exists.
Note the attempt by Ravey Mikey Govey to give another £1.5bn in "brownfield" towns monies. Its money that's already been announced (cf Gordon Brown) and is on top of towns money that is already being criss crossed over many towns without actually being given. People are about to get reamed, and they aren't going to say thank you of course I will vote Tory again...
Anyway, Yorkshire is 'different'. Fact. However my 'girl from Essex' eldest granddaughter prefers living there.
Bailiwick of Jersey
Bailiwick of Guernsey
St Helena
Gibraltar
Falkland Islands
All have a local pound. All are not part of the United Kingdom. You keep making this point which is simply wrong.
Alongside that a lot of GP services are equally struggling to find GPS and being a Locum is easier and earns roughly the same if not more so it would surprise me if a fair number of GP services will happily sign up.
Same with a mass Marathon - somebody dies fairly frequently due to sheer numbers doing a slightly risky activity.
The recent wallpaper and parties revelations in themselves are froth (although the misleading Parliament issues would have, in previous administrations had severe consequences) however taken in conjunction with repossessed homes, cars and the burgeoning use of food banks they might bite the Conservatives, under Johnson or anyone else.
Although, as the Johnsonians say on here "Boris is a lucky General"...
Without a formal currency union they would require a massive sum in reserve assets to offset the potential for a banking crisis.
No British (ex-Scotland) politician is going to try and persuade the electorate south of the border that being on the hook for hundreds of billions, if not trillions, to support the recently departed Scotland's now rival financial sector is a clever idea.
So they are not really independent currencies any more than a Bank of Scotland £10 note is.
House of CommonsMail on Sunday includes this line:Since 2015, because of an absurd set of rules I inherited, we have spent over £1.6 billion of public money on land and infrastructure for housing in the South East, and less than £150 million in the North East.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10455805/Michael-Gove-unveils-plan.html
From whom did Gove inherit this "absurd set of rules" in *checks notes aka wikipedia* September 2021? This is classic Borisism, running against Conservative predecessors.
You do raise an interesting point though - Scotland does have a massive financial sector. The idea that Scotland would be an impoverished hell with no resources and no income now that oil is smaller than it was isn't true either.
I come back to basics - the union in its current form no longer works. We either remake it fit for the future of we will lose Scotland and NI and even the England still won't be happy with what is left. Balkanisation is not the way forward - partnership is. So lets remake the union into one where the 4 home nations are partners not 3 being supplicants to the 4th.
There is a clear difference in status between the various pounds. My recollection is that the “Scottish” pound is purely a different physical printing of the same currency
The bigger question is the border. It's tangible, proven to awkward as fuck by Brexit, and Scotland is hyper vulnerable to it (see the M74 closure during the Beast from the East).
In my view the events of the past month have made a victory possible, but Labour have a long way to go and a Gordian knot to untangle to avoid a close but no cigar result. How do they mitigate fear and stoke a bit of enthusiasm? They have just two years and are surrounded by enemies and have a Cobyniite fifth column who delight in failure.
The Barnett Formula is arguably the most misunderstood thing in British politics.
Personally I find they are way more convenient. Is it just me?
One or other is fake news
Hey man, it is a joke, don’t be such a snowflake.
IDS i always worth listening to as a conviction and dignified politician I feel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiUk7aQUqkQ
Everyone in England will run on the "Scottish banks". There will be whispers about RBS taking down NatWest, and BoS taking out Lloyds/Halifax. These are UK institutions, but your gammony Englishman isn't going to think like that.
The odd thing is, I’m on your side - certainly in terms of wanting another sindy ref (even though I’m not bothered which way it goes). And yet, you don’t seem to be very pleasant to me. Why is that?
Also, I'm not sure if you know this, but casual racism towards the English is not necessarily a fantastically persuasive approach. Unless you're trying to persuade people you really dislike Englishman, of course...
But because reforming the Gender Recognition Act will affect another protected characteristic, sex, it is critically important that any proposals to reform it in the UK are informed by proper consultation with all those affected. That has not happened in Scotland. Instead, Nicola Sturgeon has simply denied such a conflict exists. Women raising legitimate concerns that opinion polls show are widely shared have been tarnished as “transphobic” by Scottish politicians.
This is politicians fomenting rather than diffusing contested debates. It has created a culture where women of the view that biological sex cannot be wholly replaced by gender identity in law – a belief itself protected by equalities legislation – get harassed out of jobs and visited by the police as a result of expressing lawful and legitimate views. Everyone loses: in a world where some people are bullied out of the democratic process of debate and consultation, it is impossible to build social consensus around the balancing of rights of two groups facing significant discrimination.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/30/observer-view-ehrc-decision-scotland-gender-recognition-reforms
Scotland's financial services sector will be utterly screwed by independence.
Now first of all there's issues of the lender of last resort which pretty fundamental there's also the issue that plenty in the independence movement have said is that an independent Scotland will walk away with no debt if it doesn't get a good deal, so if you think a sovereign nation's first act will be to not honour its debt and have the financial services sector to trust it is a courageous move.
We won't be living in the fantasy world of an independent Scotland telling the Bank of England what to do, even if it contradicts what is good for RUK, leaving aside the illegality of the BoE following instructions from someone other than HMG/The Chancellor.
A currency union in this scenario only works properly with the consent of everyone in it.
Putting it succinctly, in the event of a split the English taxpayer will not be standing as backstop/milch cow/lender of last resort for Scotland. The prospect of a formal currency union after secession is nil.
To borrow a phrase, post-independence Scotland won't get to cherry pick all the parts of the dead Union that it still likes. Its options are to adopt somebody else's money (ours, the Euro, the Dollar, whatever) or to establish a central bank and print its own. To pretend otherwise is to adopt a Johnsonian attitude to obvious realities.
But...
As the border now is unworkable and will need to be changed, I work on the assumption that a hypothetical Eng / Sco border would use the same fized Border Operating Model as will be implemented between GB and EU.