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Might Southend West not be a total certainty for the Tories? – politicalbetting.com
Might Southend West not be a total certainty for the Tories? – politicalbetting.com
The next Westminster by-election is for the vacancy created by the murder on October 15th of the sitting MP, Devid AMess. Following the precedent set after the killing of Jo Cox in 2016 Labour, the LDs and the Greens have not put up candidates so on the face of it this should be a certain CON hold.
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Edit: Yes! First first.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1485997457410564102
Mask-wearing at about 80 per cent plus at Sainsbury's today. That's how desperate everyone was to abandon face nappies.
One day, while Nasreddin was visiting the capital city, the Sultan took offense to a joke that was made at his expense. He had Nasreddin immediately arrested and imprisoned; accusing him of heresy and sedition. Nasreddin apologized to the Sultan for his joke, and begged for his life; but the Sultan remained obstinate, and in his anger, sentenced Nasreddin to be beheaded the following day. When Nasreddin was brought out the next morning, he addressed the Sultan, saying "Oh Sultan, live forever! You know me to be a skilled teacher, the greatest in your kingdom. If you will but delay my sentence for one year, I will teach your favorite horse to sing."
The Sultan did not believe that such a thing was possible; but his anger had cooled, and he was amused by the audacity of Nasreddin's claim. "Very well," replied the Sultan, "you will have a year. But if by the end of that year you have not taught my favorite horse to sing, then you will wish you had been beheaded today."
That evening, Nasreddin's friends were allowed to visit him in prison, and found him in unexpected good spirits. "How can you be so happy?" they asked. "Do you really believe that you can teach the Sultan's horse to sing?" "Of course not," replied Nasreddin, "but I now have a year which I did not have yesterday; and much can happen in that time. The Sultan may come to repent of his anger, and release me. He may die in battle or of illness, and it is traditional for a successor to pardon all prisoners upon taking office. He may be overthrown by another faction, and again, it is traditional for prisoners to be released at such a time. Or the horse may die, in which case the Sultan will be obliged to release me."
"Finally," said Nasreddin, "even if none of those things come to pass, perhaps the horse can sing."
I would guess the Tories will win, though given it is a by election and the current polls their vote may fall from 59% in 2019 to about 40-45% now.
If the LDs or Labour had stood they might even have won it (though correctly they did not given the Tories did not stand in Batley after Jo Cox was murdered as David Amess was).
As it is we could see a result something like Tories 40%, UKIP 30%, English Democrats 10% and Pyschedlic Movement 10% (the latter might pick up a few votes on a pro cannabis legalisation ticket as the only vaguely left or liberal option for Labour and LD voters) and Others 10%
I still think the Tories will get about 80% and only UKIP will hold their deposit:
Con 80%
UKIP 10 %
Others 10%
Turnout 20% (-47)
If this was a normal by election Labour would get a 10%+ swing and poll 35%+.
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1485999208331161604
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1485999748511420426
With them having done this, it now seems that both Gray and the Met are trashing this as any sort of officially agreed view.
Oh dear.
Do you regret voting for brexit now? I know this is not your version of brexit, but you did contribute to this. (Genuine question - I'm not trying to be sarky or snide.)
The issue wasn't voting for Brexit, the issue is very much Parliament and Boris's inability to understand what was being said and discovering a form of Brexit that wasn't economically painful of which a number of options were available.
If the person isn't there (for whatever reason) then why shouldn't any other people run?
NOT playing devils' advocate - I'm of the opinion any serious mainstream party should contest every by-election, no matter the cause. Con and LD were wrong to stand aside for Jo Cox, and Lab and LD were wrong to stand aside for David Amess.
It looks like Johnson and the inner circle have tried to suppress SG's report under the pretext of the Met police investigation, but the Met don't seem to have asked for this at all.
So did Johnson call in the police to try and buy time? As per the Nasreddin fable to which we've just been treated by NickyBreakspear?
I'm still not sure the slippery sod won't get away with this but it's not looking good for him.
It was (a while back) standard that NHS management, at a certain level of seniority, would get comprehensive private medical coverage in their contracts.
No, not a couple of thousand pounds a year of private consultation, as in many, many jobs in the private sector.
The deluxe version with just about anything included.
-No rules were broken
-Video: I'm sickened
-Photo: it was work event
-Just cheese and wine
-Guidelines followed
-Ok, Gray inquiry
-No-one told me rules
-Suitcases of booze
-Wait for Gray
-Blizzard of parties
-Wait for Gray
-Your b'day party
-Wait for police
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1485959240325992451
Too many entities are essentially competing for the old Brexit Party vote that went tory but feels alienated and betrayed by Boris.
The vote is now splintered, making it more difficult for one united group (ie Reform) to land a proper punch.
I wonder why you are worried he may remain in office when he is the oppositions best recruiting sergeant according to some
On the last point, I would agree with the principle - but, with Con/LD having stepped aside after the assassination of Jo Cox, it would have been wrong and politically unsustainable for Labour to contest after the assassination of David Amess.
Personally I want the best person for the job, whether they use private healthcare or not. Besides, the NHS is not wholly separate from private healthcare, as a visit tot dentist revealed. When I needed a mouth guard to stop my teeth grinding at night, I was offered the private option (as it was cheaper). Still the same dentist, in the same room, in the same chair, at the same time. And take schools - if someone has the means to use a private school, why should that preclude them from being in charge of the nations non-private schools? Other than bigotry?
it was one of those moments when you look down at the scales and scoff and think Surely not, what nonsense, that’s wrong, so you go find another set of scales and… it’s right.
OMG
I have renewed empathy for Boris “cheese and wine” Johnson, and I’m afraid you can expect weekly if not daily updates on my attempt, beginning after this next Martini but one, to shed the REDACTED pounds I have somehow put on since last summer
Ugh!
From memory I think my version of Brexit is rather identical to @Richard_Tyndall 's but for slightly different reasons.
The issue with Brexit is that everyone who voted for it voted for their personal unicorn version of Brexit and then the lunatics got Boris to deliver a complete horlicks of a solution (yes it solves some problems but selling to the EU is now a nightmare). RD is lucky in that he is mainly dealing with imports which are bad but not as bad as exports now France and co can play games.
That said, one of my expat colleagues just now was complaining at length about her experience of the UK health system after an epic series of GP calls, A&E visits, specialist referrals and pharmacy cock ups over the weekend, and her ire was directed equally at the NHS and the private providers. I think the difference is in her country in South America if you have private insurance you can just turn up at the private A&E and everything gets sorted. (Though meanwhile of course those without insurance are left to suffer without any meaningful care at all).
https://twitter.com/mountain1945/status/1485900617394659339?s=21
He will use many NHS services; he will have gone private for a few. If he ever uses GPs, then he has skin in the game.
Yours is a totally bogus argument IMO: should a rail chief not have a car, so he has to travel everywhere by train? Of course not - as long as he makes some journeys. If someone never goes to the doctors because they are healthy, should they be disallowed from running the servie?
This fetishisation of the NHS will destroy it eventually.
But never did I conceive that we would impose 30 years of red tape, and demolish our just in time supply chain, and voluntarily put up as many barriers and impediments to trade as we could. Its the polar opposite of what the current government have spent decades doing and delivers a worse position post-Brexit than we had.
As I keep saying, the current Border Operating Model does not work. So regardless of Brexit being done it isn't over, as we will need to remove many of our self-imposed barriers so that we can trade again.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1485985006472376322
62% of Britons now think that Boris Johnson should resign as PM
All Brits
Should resign: 62% (+6 from 11th Jan)
Should remain: 25% (-2)
Con voters
Resign: 38% (+5)
Remain: 49% (-3)
Lab voters
Resign: 88% (+6)
Remain: 5% (-4)
That being said, the most popular private medical coverage is consultants and private GPS, in the UK. In normal times you can get to see a consultant within a day or so and the private GPs are walk in, often with no appointment.
My vast alcohol intake probably doesn’t help either. Oh well.
The only upside is that I quite like fasting. The iron test of the will, and the surge in brain energy. If only Leni Riefenstahl was still alive to film me, as I pump iron on Galle beach
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-to-investigate-downing-street-parties-f2tvj9vq6
"They added that while the final decision on whether to publish would be in the hands of the prime minister they expected that it would be released in full."
PM’s spokesman says No 10 not seeking to block publication
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60122893
We need this into the open this week, whatever your political affiliations.
I can't wait to dump the stupid and ridiculous masks but am respecting and waiting until the law changes on Thursday.
Let's wait and see how many choose to wear the stupid things once it's optional before prematurely judging hey? But 20% refusing to follow the law (don't give me any nonsense about them being exempt) speaks volumes.
I need to check into a hostel above a weirdly expensive McDonalds.
Your comparison with rail is absurd because most rail users also have a car.
Because he brings Politics into disrepute
Because he brings his offfice into disrepute
Because he brings the country into disrepute
Every day that he stays may well be great news on narrow partisan grounds for those of us who want the Tories out. But every day is also a national disaster as the very institutions of state are dragged into a gutter they will struggle to climb out of.
Its not all about party politics. Sometimes its basic morality. Right and wrong. Boris is Wrong.
They work as well as anything can to prevent a nasty airborne virus which is still around.
Now I wouldn't want the person in charge of the NHS to be using private health care when he was running it, but knowing how things could be rather than how they are would be an advantage.
It's like the argument you used to get about School Governors. You want people who understand how things could be to be in charge so they push for (achievable) changes and don't listen to the excuses of but that's how things are.
https://deadspin.com/meat-loaf-was-my-softball-coach-5821391
...In 1991, I was a high school freshman in the small town of Redding, Conn. My brother was a senior, and his prom date was one of our neighbors down the street, a junior, Pearl Aday. Pearl would drive me home from softball practice when her father, our coach, was unable to. I preferred Pearl, as her dad drove a red sports car, pushing it to its capabilities through our small, winding roads … like a bat out of hell. His name was Marvin Lee Aday, but he was better known to the world as Meat Loaf. To the scrappy group of girls he was trying to mold into softball players, he was Coach Meat.
The JV team was orphaned at birth that year. No one wanted to coach us, and it was getting down to the wire when Meat Loaf volunteered, despite being on the verge of filming three movies and being in the midst of recording Bat Out Of Hell II. Coach Meat took the game very seriously. When we prodded him to sing us one of his hits, we were denied. Instead, he taught us a team chant: "What do we wanna do? Kill! What do we need to do? Kill! What are we gonna do? Kill! What do big dogs do? KILL!"...
Today has been a massive win for Johnson.
I’m now scared of jumping out of bed too eagerly, in case I cause ANOTHER tsunami
Once it's legally optional instead of legally compulsory I expect quite rightly only a small minority will wear them.
Good for them if they wish to, but the rest of us shouldn't. But why read into the fact 80% are wearing them today when it's still the law today ... Or did you think the law lapsed today?
This is a little personal to me. As I've said passim, the NHS mucked up an operation when I was 15 that left me in intermittent pain. It was fixed about ten years later by a private surgeon after many operations. Thanks to that surgeon, I can walk properly.
I was lucky to get a good surgeon. But the NHS did not give a damn about their negligence.
So yes, it is a fetishisation. And it is one that will kill people - see the Stafford hospital scandal (c) Andy Burnham for an example.
Boris demeanour at the dispatch box was remarkably bullish and as I said earlier it was either bravado - denial - or belief he is innocent
For all the sound and fury Boris's fate is in the hands of his colleagues
And Douglas Ross repeats his resignation demand
Way to go Bozza!
He took private health insurance, even though he didn't want it, so as to avoid burdening the NHS with additional costs. You say you support the NHS, yet every time you see a doctor, you denude it of funds. This man put his money where his mouth is, and made a private company pay the bills.
I salute his true love of the NHS.
They're clearly not naively blinded into thinking nothing needs improving.
(That's just my snobbish mid-Essex upbringing making me look down on the South End. Plus being pissy about Chelmsford losing it's status as the only city in Essex)
Cabinet members think he is their only hope of keeping their sweet gigs.