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In the betting the money goes on Johnson surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com
In the betting the money goes on Johnson surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com
After a period last month when the betting was that Johnson will be out in 2022 the money has now moved back to him surviving till 2024 or later.
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Let this be over soon!
Deepti Gurdasani
@dgurdasani1
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2h
This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.
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Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?
Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?
She constantly shrieks for lockdown, I've seldom if ever seen her consider the downsides. Maybe I just miss those tweets
The lockdown maniacs drive me nuts
Eric Topol
@EricTopol
·
1h
It's pretty impressive that vaccines directed to the ancestral strain spike from 2 years ago, w/ the virus that's evolved thru >290 million confirmed cases, and now to the hyper-mutated Omicron, have preserved efficacy of near 90% vs severe disease with a 3rd shot
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Amen to that...
Bless you all, PB, and schlaft gut
As I shall do now. Bon nuit
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jan/02/fossil-hunter-richard-leakey-who-showed-humans-evolved-in-africa-dies-at-77
I only knew him as a fossil guy.
She was famously Low Church, and would no doubt have NOT been amused by much if not most of HYUFD's theology.
That said, am quite sure that QV considered herself to have ascended the throne by express Divine Ordinance. And considering the genealogy that got her there, it's hard to argue against that view.
It really seems to have dragged on this year. It being a Saturday Xmas didn't help. The extra Bank Holidays would have been much more appreciated later in the year some time imho.
I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
We could have carried them over to the Jubilee and had a full week (effectively 10 days) of utter bacchanalian excess in the Summer.
Possibly coinciding with a lack of pandemic paranoia, or any travel restrictions. What a missed opportunity.
What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
Even if she were to consent to one.
Although if the polls move away from Rishi, all bets are off.
From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide
From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
Of course being high Church has little to do with it anyway, as most who are high Church are Roman Catholic and believe the Pope, not the English monarch, is God's representative on earth. There are plenty of low Church evangelicals in the Church of England however who still accept the Queen as Supreme Governor of the Church with Christ as its Head.
I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
For me, it's fallen perfectly.
I have a big house, the kids are getting extra online tutoring, my salary is safe (unlike my post-docs but that's another story), I don't live alone with a mental health condition, there is a park I like to run in every morning and post photos from to Instagram and then I am back in time to get the delivery of food and wine from waitrose before I hunker down to a good hour or two of tweeting reasons why everyone should lock down NOW.
Perhaps my view has been coloured by being in isolation for a while before? And with family in it around Xmas? It's added up to a torpid three weeks or so. I want to do stuff now!
Probably. Delighted yours has gone well.
As you said, if you have access to a large house, green land, financial security and so forth, the lockdown is - in many ways - an ideal work environment for many. It truly is the Revenge of the (wealthy) Introverts.
But any sane person recognises that my position and that of a minority of lucky people - usually reasonably well off and living outside the cities - is not the norm. We are not the ones whose welfare should be the priority when these rules are being made.
Their base are wealthy, SE, retired home owners.
They have the votes. They will choose. They won't choose someone with a Corbyn lite agenda.
Sunak would have to do far better than just 2% ahead of Boris for there to be any chance of over 50% of Tory MPs deciding to VONC Boris
One could perhaps even say it was the first decent act of levelling up we have seen.
On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
Maybe it is the classic, we know what is right for other people syndrome.
And the disdain for those with comfortable salaries and large gardens.
I trust some form of equalisation of this benighted set of circumstances will be the sole consideration when the next election comes around?
Rather than talk loudly and at length about it?
To do it, you need to accept your region and millions of voters like that getting relatively poorer over several decades.
Anything else is fantasy.
But sure we can do some equalisation. Shall we start off with the very generously funded state pension schemes that professionals in the state sectors such as headteachers etc receive?
There is obviously a cost to that aka taxation. So long as it is levelling up to generate a better outcome and not levelling down I'm relaxed about it. Extra taxation isn't a deal breaker.
That said, activism is always a minority. Over the years I'd say about 5% of members are really active (doing something every week or two), rising to 15% at elections (and the 5% are then doing stuff every day). I'm idly curious what the proportions are like in other parties?
Resources should be redirected.
The other elephant in the room is global levelling up. The developed world will nee to address the abject poverty of billions of people in the non too distant future. That will cost us all.
I don't.
That's pure fantasy.
There is a great deal to be disappointed about in Prime Minister Boris Johnson. But a number here have lost money underestimating Boris. Much of it fuelled by Boris representing all their own personal frustrations on losing the Brexit referendum. They feel he has to be punished/removed/humiliated before they can move on.
But it may yet be that, if he is emulating his hero Churchill, he has had his Norway. But his VE and VJ days are still ahead of him....
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1475566541273980929?s=20
I think the whole thing is much less political or class-based than many here assume. Most people aren't sure what to think, and tend to err on the safe side - it's just normal human behaviour. Now that Omicron is turning out milder, they're gradually relaxing.
Investment in core infrastructure in the redwall cannot come at the cost of higher taxes on the bluewall
Despite the fact we have higher taxes than for many decades.
The comments of phiiph and HYUFD show there isn't a scintilla of Tory coherence on this.
It is a battle yet to be fought.
I would hope (note it is hope rather than expect) Conservatives would make a better play on the level up side thus minimising the down for the better off South, but still getting the disparity to acceptable levels.
We agree on the target, just the means of reaching it may be different.
What is extra taxation?
As stated in my last line.
I suspect that if you broke it down by profession, age, etc., then - like with the EU referendum - there will be people from all walks of life, profession, age, etc who are pro-lockdown, and there will be those who are anti.
I suspect that two variables will tend to correlate with lockdown: one is trust in authority and the other is pessimism vs optimism. So a pessimist who has faith in authority will be the most pro-lockdown. And an optimist who is distrustful will be anti.
This means there will be natural splits: MPs for the former Red Wall will probably want someone very different to an MP facing a challenge from LibDem.
Ultimately, though, the hypothetical polling is probably going to be the biggest driver: who is seen as most popular with voters. Ms Truss is popular with Conservative members, but she isn't really that well known with the population at large.
In other words: I don't know. But I would do what I always do in these markets and sell the favorite.
Nurse wakes from 28-day Covid coma after medics give her VIAGRA
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10362771/Nurse-wakes-28-day-Covid-coma-medics-VIAGRA.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/more-than-half-of-uks-black-children-live-in-poverty-analysis-shows
No it absolutely isn't. It is a metric of an academic term for what is called relative poverty, that is a very different thing and which the originator of such a term has said wasn't meant to misused in this way as a catch all term for people who are living in actual poverty.
The Labour collapse in Scotland masks how well they are doing in England. Eg.
England L 43% C 35%
Scotland SNP 53% C 20% L 13%
Wales L 54% PC 21% C 21%
UK L 39% C 32% LD 9% SNP 5% Grn 5% Ref 4%
(Survation/Good Morning Britain, 10-11 December)
Then consider how that Labour support in distributed geographically in England. The Tories are in deep trouble and you do your party a disservice in not facing up to the facts.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html
Nadine Dorries - who we're both rather fond of - rates very highly too.
Priti Patel, on the other hand, is not well regarded.
While you might argue about what defines poverty, their point was that "black children are twice as likely as white children to grow up in poorer homes." Now, you can say that isn't true poverty - and it certainly isn't compared to the 1930s or even the 1960s - but that point seems largely inarguable.