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In the betting the money goes on Johnson surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imageIn the betting the money goes on Johnson surviving 2022 – politicalbetting.com

After a period last month when the betting was that Johnson will be out in 2022 the money has now moved back to him surviving till 2024 or later.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526
    First. Like the date yesterday.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,283
    Second, up to the minute!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571
    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526
    ...

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    Ohh! Who comes second?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    ...

    Does look like the beginnings of a curve...... please God

    Let this be over soon!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,059

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    Ohh! Who comes second?
    Hopefully Rishi Sunak. Just imagine how joyous the 2024 general election will be for non-wazzocks when the Corruption Party elects Steve Backer as leader and PM...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571
    Leon said:

    ...

    Does look like the beginnings of a curve...... please God

    Let this be over soon!
    Whilst we all want that, I have to ask. Is there the same delay in reporting hospital figures as there is positive tests? If the chart isn't showing Scots/ Welsh / Norniron figures...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    That's the way I am betting. Although recently I am wondering whether she is over doing it all. But maybe not with an ageing membership who probably forget that she was saying the same thing on top of tank yesterday as well.
  • RichardrRichardr Posts: 16
    Leon said:

    ...

    Does look like the beginnings of a curve...... please God

    Let this be over soon!
    Let's hope so, but don't ignore the fact that the numbers will be distorted by the holiday period, and in particular the last few days are not complete - the latest day is missing trusts that in their last submission had 259 patients - and it is a few days since the numbers were complete.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    I confess an ungallant urge to occasionally smack Ms Gurdasani with a wet kipper, quite hard

    She constantly shrieks for lockdown, I've seldom if ever seen her consider the downsides. Maybe I just miss those tweets

    The lockdown maniacs drive me nuts
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    OK enuff PB. Tomorrow back to actual work and life and 2022

    Bless you all, PB, and schlaft gut
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    Boris will have to navigate massive spikes in energy costs. Without action Mays elections could be very messy indeed.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571
    Leon said:

    OK enuff PB. Tomorrow back to actual work and life and 2022

    Bless you all, PB, and schlaft gut

    Its a bank holiday luv. Followed by another one up here. Two more days to finish painting the office before doing actual proper work. 2022 could be absolutely mega work wise :)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    OK enuff PB. Tomorrow back to actual work and life and 2022

    Bless you all, PB, and schlaft gut

    Its a bank holiday luv. Followed by another one up here. Two more days to finish painting the office before doing actual proper work. 2022 could be absolutely mega work wise :)
    I'm done with festive faffing. I'm actually quite keen to crack on with working and living and ignoring the news

    As I shall do now. Bon nuit
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571
    Jonathan said:

    Boris will have to navigate massive spikes in energy costs. Without action Mays elections could be very messy indeed.

    What action can he take? The market has shaken out the chancers and left the big monoliths that so many of us don't like to deal with. But we've been left prone to spot price spikes thanks to the dual threat of leaving the EU energy market and allowing gas storage to be shut down for profits. Neither are easy to quickly reverse...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited January 2
    Richard Leakey dead. RIP. Quite a fascinating and dramatic life which is worth a read.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jan/02/fossil-hunter-richard-leakey-who-showed-humans-evolved-in-africa-dies-at-77

    I only knew him as a fossil guy.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OK enuff PB. Tomorrow back to actual work and life and 2022

    Bless you all, PB, and schlaft gut

    Its a bank holiday luv. Followed by another one up here. Two more days to finish painting the office before doing actual proper work. 2022 could be absolutely mega work wise :)
    I'm done with festive faffing. I'm actually quite keen to crack on with working and living and ignoring the news

    As I shall do now. Bon nuit
    Fair enough. I have determined that I shall start 2022 by taking holidays, having taken maybe half of my agreed holiday allowance last year and having worked various bank holidays for good measure.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,283
    One wonders (really?) what were Queen Victoria's views re: royal anointing.

    She was famously Low Church, and would no doubt have NOT been amused by much if not most of HYUFD's theology.

    That said, am quite sure that QV considered herself to have ascended the throne by express Divine Ordinance. And considering the genealogy that got her there, it's hard to argue against that view.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    I would imagine far less than her betting backers think. What’s noticeable is there are very few loud and proud Truss backers out there willing to go out publicly to defend her. Plus, she doesn’t have a natural base within the current Conservative MP grouping.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited January 2
    Leon's right.
    It really seems to have dragged on this year. It being a Saturday Xmas didn't help. The extra Bank Holidays would have been much more appreciated later in the year some time imho.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    edited January 2
    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    I would imagine far less than her betting backers think. What’s noticeable is there are very few loud and proud Truss backers out there willing to go out publicly to defend her. Plus, she doesn’t have a natural base within the current Conservative MP grouping.
    That's my instinct too.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,571
    dixiedean said:

    Leon's right.
    It really seems to have dragged on this year. It being a Saturday Xmas didn't help. The extra Bank Holidays would have been much more appreciated later in the year some time imho.

    I entirely agree! Hence putting the time into work - sorting the office which is effectively work for my consultancy business - before going to back to client work on Wednesday.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited January 2
    Thinking about it. We have had three make up Bank Holidays with precious little to do at this time of year. Except more of the same.
    We could have carried them over to the Jubilee and had a full week (effectively 10 days) of utter bacchanalian excess in the Summer.
    Possibly coinciding with a lack of pandemic paranoia, or any travel restrictions. What a missed opportunity.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why do you say that? What sort of following does she have amongst MPs? I can't believe the recent polling would have encouraged them.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited January 2

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why do you say that? What sort of following does she have amongst MPs? I can't believe the recent polling would have encouraged them.
    Still don't believe 50% of the electorate would pick her out of a line up.
    Even if she were to consent to one.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,473
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    Aren't Sunak and Hunt fishing in the same pool? Polls show Sunak clear of the rest so MPs concerned about electability will vote for Sunak, and I can't see why very many would back Hunt instead. What would they expect Hunt to do differently from Sunak, apart from lose a general election? Whereas you can see some sort of ideological reason for backing Truss, Gove, Baker or, for that matter, Priti Patel.

    Although if the polls move away from Rishi, all bets are off.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 2
    Given the latest poll has Labour only 5% ahead and the Tories still on 35% and the only poll comparing other potential Tory leaders to Boris had Labour still 3% ahead under Sunak and every other alternative leader doing far worse than Boris, he is safe for now.

    Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    Except. Most people continued working as normal. Particularly the ones in cramped accomodations.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 2

    One wonders (really?) what were Queen Victoria's views re: royal anointing.

    She was famously Low Church, and would no doubt have NOT been amused by much if not most of HYUFD's theology.

    That said, am quite sure that QV considered herself to have ascended the throne by express Divine Ordinance. And considering the genealogy that got her there, it's hard to argue against that view.

    Queen Victoria may not have been a high Church Anglo Catholic but she knew she was still Supreme Governor of the Church of England and Christ's representative of the Church therefore in England.

    Of course being high Church has little to do with it anyway, as most who are high Church are Roman Catholic and believe the Pope, not the English monarch, is God's representative on earth. There are plenty of low Church evangelicals in the Church of England however who still accept the Queen as Supreme Governor of the Church with Christ as its Head.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    HYUFD said:

    Given the latest poll has Labour only 5% ahead and the Tories still on 35% and the only poll comparing other potential Tory leaders to Boris had Labour still 3% ahead under Sunak and every other alternative leader doing far worse than Boris, he is safe for now.

    Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide

    Labour likes this comment 👍
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    HYUFD said:

    Given the latest poll has Labour only 5% ahead and the Tories still on 35% and the only poll comparing other potential Tory leaders to Boris had Labour still 3% ahead under Sunak and every other alternative leader doing far worse than Boris, he is safe for now.

    Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide

    For all the cheerleading of Starmer, he hasn’t pushed Labour past 40%. He also has the issue - as @bigjohnowls has mentioned - that a number who though small disproportionately did the leg work do not like him because of his actions against Corbyn and / or see him as a snake.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    HYUFD said:

    Given the latest poll has Labour only 5% ahead and the Tories still on 35% and the only poll comparing other potential Tory leaders to Boris had Labour still 3% ahead under Sunak and every other alternative leader doing far worse than Boris, he is safe for now.

    Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide

    You're assuming the only reason MPs would get rid of him is because the polling is bad. What if they just don't like him and think someone else would do as well if not better?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    No but they can do the Maths on seats. Sure, picking a Hunt may push off the LD threat in Southern seats but, electorally, the greater threat to the majority are the RW seats. Plus I suspect there will be a lot of messaging in a contest that the next Tory leader has to be representative of their new base.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526
    MrEd said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
    Lockdown fanatic academics should have to declare an interest:

    I have a big house, the kids are getting extra online tutoring, my salary is safe (unlike my post-docs but that's another story), I don't live alone with a mental health condition, there is a park I like to run in every morning and post photos from to Instagram and then I am back in time to get the delivery of food and wine from waitrose before I hunker down to a good hour or two of tweeting reasons why everyone should lock down NOW.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thinking about it. We have had three make up Bank Holidays with precious little to do at this time of year. Except more of the same.
    We could have carried them over to the Jubilee and had a full week (effectively 10 days) of utter bacchanalian excess in the Summer.
    Possibly coinciding with a lack of pandemic paranoia, or any travel restrictions. What a missed opportunity.

    I've had a brilliant Christmas. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day were like something from an advert - family round, excited kids, big Christmas dinner with spare chairs and cutlery dragooned in. Then a few days of nothing - most relaxed I've been for years. Even read a book. Then NYE, which again was like an advert, albeit an advert in which the protagonists were a lot of drunken middle aged couples. Then a walk on NYD. And still two or three days at the end to wind down and lessen the urgency of Getting Stuff Done. I'm not exaggerating to say it's been bliss. I've become the man I would like to be - relaxed, jovial, affable, say yes to everything.
    For me, it's fallen perfectly.
    Yes, mine has been similar albeit without the break days - full on hosting/partying for a fortnight. And I say this as one who tends not to enjoy Christmas much. I’ve really enjoyed it, and the way the holiday fell over NY meant everyone really let their hair down.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thinking about it. We have had three make up Bank Holidays with precious little to do at this time of year. Except more of the same.
    We could have carried them over to the Jubilee and had a full week (effectively 10 days) of utter bacchanalian excess in the Summer.
    Possibly coinciding with a lack of pandemic paranoia, or any travel restrictions. What a missed opportunity.

    I've had a brilliant Christmas. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day were like something from an advert - family round, excited kids, big Christmas dinner with spare chairs and cutlery dragooned in. Then a few days of nothing - most relaxed I've been for years. Even read a book. Then NYE, which again was like an advert, albeit an advert in which the protagonists were a lot of drunken middle aged couples. Then a walk on NYD. And still two or three days at the end to wind down and lessen the urgency of Getting Stuff Done. I'm not exaggerating to say it's been bliss. I've become the man I would like to be - relaxed, jovial, affable, say yes to everything.
    For me, it's fallen perfectly.
    Glad to hear it.
    Perhaps my view has been coloured by being in isolation for a while before? And with family in it around Xmas? It's added up to a torpid three weeks or so. I want to do stuff now!
    Probably. Delighted yours has gone well.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    MrEd said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
    Lockdown fanatic academics should have to declare an interest:

    I have a big house, the kids are getting extra online tutoring, my salary is safe (unlike my post-docs but that's another story), I don't live alone with a mental health condition, there is a park I like to run in every morning and post photos from to Instagram and then I am back in time to get the delivery of food and wine from waitrose before I hunker down to a good hour or two of tweeting reasons why everyone should lock down NOW.

    There was a great poser doing the rounds during lockdown 2/3 which requested that every vocal proponent of lockdown should first declare how much their bank balance had risen during the first one.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253

    MrEd said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
    Lockdown fanatic academics should have to declare an interest:

    I have a big house, the kids are getting extra online tutoring, my salary is safe (unlike my post-docs but that's another story), I don't live alone with a mental health condition, there is a park I like to run in every morning and post photos from to Instagram and then I am back in time to get the delivery of food and wine from waitrose before I hunker down to a good hour or two of tweeting reasons why everyone should lock down NOW.

    Yes, and ironically those fanatics tend to be the most vocal at calling the other side selfish etc.

    As you said, if you have access to a large house, green land, financial security and so forth, the lockdown is - in many ways - an ideal work environment for many. It truly is the Revenge of the (wealthy) Introverts.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253

    MrEd said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
    Lockdown fanatic academics should have to declare an interest:

    I have a big house, the kids are getting extra online tutoring, my salary is safe (unlike my post-docs but that's another story), I don't live alone with a mental health condition, there is a park I like to run in every morning and post photos from to Instagram and then I am back in time to get the delivery of food and wine from waitrose before I hunker down to a good hour or two of tweeting reasons why everyone should lock down NOW.

    There was a great poser doing the rounds during lockdown 2/3 which requested that every vocal proponent of lockdown should first declare how much their bank balance had risen during the first one.
    Let me guess how many answered….
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,988
    MrEd said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
    Yep I am in the same boat as you. Still able to work from home with reduced costs, more family time and still more free time in spite of an increased work load. The days of the first lockdown were some of the best of my life in terms of peace and the ability to truly enjoy the countryside.

    But any sane person recognises that my position and that of a minority of lucky people - usually reasonably well off and living outside the cities - is not the norm. We are not the ones whose welfare should be the priority when these rules are being made.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    No but they can do the Maths on seats. Sure, picking a Hunt may push off the LD threat in Southern seats but, electorally, the greater threat to the majority are the RW seats. Plus I suspect there will be a lot of messaging in a contest that the next Tory leader has to be representative of their new base.
    That isn't their base though. Those are stretch voters.
    Their base are wealthy, SE, retired home owners.
    They have the votes. They will choose. They won't choose someone with a Corbyn lite agenda.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253

    MrEd said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
    Yep I am in the same boat as you. Still able to work from home with reduced costs, more family time and still more free time in spite of an increased work load. The days of the first lockdown were some of the best of my life in terms of peace and the ability to truly enjoy the countryside.

    But any sane person recognises that my position and that of a minority of lucky people - usually reasonably well off and living outside the cities - is not the norm. We are not the ones whose welfare should be the priority when these rules are being made.
    Totally agree with that and I didn’t mean to come across as suggesting anything else. I suspect many of us on here would have relatively good lives regardless of circumstances. We don’t need help. The less lucky do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 2

    HYUFD said:

    Given the latest poll has Labour only 5% ahead and the Tories still on 35% and the only poll comparing other potential Tory leaders to Boris had Labour still 3% ahead under Sunak and every other alternative leader doing far worse than Boris, he is safe for now.

    Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide

    You're assuming the only reason MPs would get rid of him is because the polling is bad. What if they just don't like him and think someone else would do as well if not better?
    That is interlinked to polling.

    Sunak would have to do far better than just 2% ahead of Boris for there to be any chance of over 50% of Tory MPs deciding to VONC Boris
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    Yep. Which is why I take the view that last week's cabinet when they stopped another lockdown was a profound moment.

    One could perhaps even say it was the first decent act of levelling up we have seen.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    No but they can do the Maths on seats. Sure, picking a Hunt may push off the LD threat in Southern seats but, electorally, the greater threat to the majority are the RW seats. Plus I suspect there will be a lot of messaging in a contest that the next Tory leader has to be representative of their new base.
    That isn't their base though. Those are stretch voters.
    Their base are wealthy, SE, retired home owners.
    They have the votes. They will choose. They won't choose someone with a Corbyn lite agenda.
    Again, comes back to the point - as a member, do you want a Blue Collar leader but who is a Tory (and shares many of your views) or a woke-ist Labour Party that will push its agenda? It’s great having a leader that matches your views but, if they can’t win an election, then it is pointless..
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412
    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
    Lockdown fanatic academics should have to declare an interest:

    I have a big house, the kids are getting extra online tutoring, my salary is safe (unlike my post-docs but that's another story), I don't live alone with a mental health condition, there is a park I like to run in every morning and post photos from to Instagram and then I am back in time to get the delivery of food and wine from waitrose before I hunker down to a good hour or two of tweeting reasons why everyone should lock down NOW.

    There was a great poser doing the rounds during lockdown 2/3 which requested that every vocal proponent of lockdown should first declare how much their bank balance had risen during the first one.
    Let me guess how many answered….
    It's the inability, despite the appearance of being intelligent, to see things from any one else's viewpoint. The ones with two kids on 10th floor of tower block who still have to try and work for minimum wage at the care home.

    Maybe it is the classic, we know what is right for other people syndrome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 2
    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Levelling up yes, as long as it does not mean levelling you down with higher tax rises on the South to pay for more spending on the redwall
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Remarkable to see the vast outpouring of love, empathy and compassion for those in overcrowded housing and low paid, unfulfilling jobs.
    And the disdain for those with comfortable salaries and large gardens.
    I trust some form of equalisation of this benighted set of circumstances will be the sole consideration when the next election comes around?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,988
    dixiedean said:

    Remarkable to see the vast outpouring of love, empathy and compassion for those in overcrowded housing and low paid, unfulfilling jobs.
    And the disdain for those with comfortable salaries and large gardens.
    I trust some form of equalisation of this benighted set of circumstances will be the sole consideration when the next election comes around?

    Really not remarkable to see a lockdown fanatic like you misrepresenting what has been written here. There is no disdain for those with large gardens and comfortable salaries. Merely for those in that situation who are then happy to impose lockdowns on those who are not as fortunate as them. It is the blind ignorance that rankles.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
    Lockdown fanatic academics should have to declare an interest:

    I have a big house, the kids are getting extra online tutoring, my salary is safe (unlike my post-docs but that's another story), I don't live alone with a mental health condition, there is a park I like to run in every morning and post photos from to Instagram and then I am back in time to get the delivery of food and wine from waitrose before I hunker down to a good hour or two of tweeting reasons why everyone should lock down NOW.

    There was a great poser doing the rounds during lockdown 2/3 which requested that every vocal proponent of lockdown should first declare how much their bank balance had risen during the first one.
    Let me guess how many answered….
    It's the inability, despite the appearance of being intelligent, to see things from any one else's viewpoint. The ones with two kids on 10th floor of tower block who still have to try and work for minimum wage at the care home.

    Maybe it is the classic, we know what is right for other people syndrome.
    It reminds me of when you created a character for Dungeons and Dragons. Intelligence and Wisdom were two separate attributes and being good at one didn’t mean you were good at the other.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited January 3
    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Yes. But are you prepared to stick your hand in your pocket and substantially pay for it?
    Rather than talk loudly and at length about it?
    To do it, you need to accept your region and millions of voters like that getting relatively poorer over several decades.
    Anything else is fantasy.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    dixiedean said:

    Remarkable to see the vast outpouring of love, empathy and compassion for those in overcrowded housing and low paid, unfulfilling jobs.
    And the disdain for those with comfortable salaries and large gardens.
    I trust some form of equalisation of this benighted set of circumstances will be the sole consideration when the next election comes around?

    No disdain, just a realisation of how fortunate we are. And that those pushing the lockdown most vehemently tend to be those who have the comfortable salaries etc to cope.

    But sure we can do some equalisation. Shall we start off with the very generously funded state pension schemes that professionals in the state sectors such as headteachers etc receive?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412
    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Levelling up yes, as long as it does not mean levelling you down with higher tax rises on the South to pay for more spending on the redwall
    By definition levelling up implies making the lower deciles better off.
    There is obviously a cost to that aka taxation. So long as it is levelling up to generate a better outcome and not levelling down I'm relaxed about it. Extra taxation isn't a deal breaker.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412
    dixiedean said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Yes. But are you prepared to stick your hand in your pocket and substantially pay for it?
    Rather than talk loudly and at length about it?
    To do it, you need to accept your region and millions of voters like that getting relatively poorer over several decades.
    Anything else is fantasy.
    That is blindingly obvious. So yes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,018
    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    Remarkable to see the vast outpouring of love, empathy and compassion for those in overcrowded housing and low paid, unfulfilling jobs.
    And the disdain for those with comfortable salaries and large gardens.
    I trust some form of equalisation of this benighted set of circumstances will be the sole consideration when the next election comes around?

    No disdain, just a realisation of how fortunate we are. And that those pushing the lockdown most vehemently tend to be those who have the comfortable salaries etc to cope.

    But sure we can do some equalisation. Shall we start off with the very generously funded state pension schemes that professionals in the state sectors such as headteachers etc receive?
    If you chose a profession with a shit pension scheme that's your problem.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the latest poll has Labour only 5% ahead and the Tories still on 35% and the only poll comparing other potential Tory leaders to Boris had Labour still 3% ahead under Sunak and every other alternative leader doing far worse than Boris, he is safe for now.

    Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide

    For all the cheerleading of Starmer, he hasn’t pushed Labour past 40%. He also has the issue - as @bigjohnowls has mentioned - that a number who though small disproportionately did the leg work do not like him because of his actions against Corbyn and / or see him as a snake.
    I've always disagreed with the centrist belief that the wave of new members who came in under Corbyn were lazy sods who just sat around debating - roughly the same proortion of them as older members came out to do stuff. But the reverse is also true - there are lots of centrists who do loads of legwork.

    That said, activism is always a minority. Over the years I'd say about 5% of members are really active (doing something every week or two), rising to 15% at elections (and the 5% are then doing stuff every day). I'm idly curious what the proportions are like in other parties?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited January 3

    dixiedean said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    Except. Most people continued working as normal. Particularly the ones in cramped accommodations.
    I simply don't believe that is true. Certainly not during the first lockdown. The lack of vehicles on the roads, lack of people on public transport, points to the falsehood of that claim. Yes some people did have to continue to work normally but even they then had kids at home they had to look after because the schools were closed. Anyone who thinks lockdowns were easy or even 'normal' for the vast majority of people is not living in the real world.
    Who said it was easy? Only you.

    dixiedean said:

    Remarkable to see the vast outpouring of love, empathy and compassion for those in overcrowded housing and low paid, unfulfilling jobs.
    And the disdain for those with comfortable salaries and large gardens.
    I trust some form of equalisation of this benighted set of circumstances will be the sole consideration when the next election comes around?

    Really not remarkable to see a lockdown fanatic like you misrepresenting what has been written here. There is no disdain for those with large gardens and comfortable salaries. Merely for those in that situation who are then happy to impose lockdowns on those who are not as fortunate as them. It is the blind ignorance that rankles.
    I'm not a lockdown fanatic in the slightest. I don't even support one.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412
    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Yes. But are you prepared to stick your hand in your pocket and substantially pay for it?
    Rather than talk loudly and at length about it?
    To do it, you need to accept your region and millions of voters like that getting relatively poorer over several decades.
    Anything else is fantasy.
    That is blindingly obvious. So yes.
    Just to add the economic disparity in our society hs become too great. Left unaddressed society will become increasingly dysfunctional and we will all suffer.
    Resources should be redirected.

    The other elephant in the room is global levelling up. The developed world will nee to address the abject poverty of billions of people in the non too distant future. That will cost us all.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    Remarkable to see the vast outpouring of love, empathy and compassion for those in overcrowded housing and low paid, unfulfilling jobs.
    And the disdain for those with comfortable salaries and large gardens.
    I trust some form of equalisation of this benighted set of circumstances will be the sole consideration when the next election comes around?

    No disdain, just a realisation of how fortunate we are. And that those pushing the lockdown most vehemently tend to be those who have the comfortable salaries etc to cope.

    But sure we can do some equalisation. Shall we start off with the very generously funded state pension schemes that professionals in the state sectors such as headteachers etc receive?
    CGT on unearned house price inflation would be better. But yes. Pensions are an issue.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Yes. But are you prepared to stick your hand in your pocket and substantially pay for it?
    Rather than talk loudly and at length about it?
    To do it, you need to accept your region and millions of voters like that getting relatively poorer over several decades.
    Anything else is fantasy.
    That is blindingly obvious. So yes.
    And do you think you'll carry your comrades?
    I don't.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Levelling up yes, as long as it does not mean levelling you down with higher tax rises on the South to pay for more spending on the redwall
    By definition levelling up implies making the lower deciles better off.
    There is obviously a cost to that aka taxation. So long as it is levelling up to generate a better outcome and not levelling down I'm relaxed about it. Extra taxation isn't a deal breaker.
    But you can't have levelling up without someone being levelled down.
    That's pure fantasy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the latest poll has Labour only 5% ahead and the Tories still on 35% and the only poll comparing other potential Tory leaders to Boris had Labour still 3% ahead under Sunak and every other alternative leader doing far worse than Boris, he is safe for now.

    Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide

    For all the cheerleading of Starmer, he hasn’t pushed Labour past 40%. He also has the issue - as @bigjohnowls has mentioned - that a number who though small disproportionately did the leg work do not like him because of his actions against Corbyn and / or see him as a snake.
    I've always disagreed with the centrist belief that the wave of new members who came in under Corbyn were lazy sods who just sat around debating - roughly the same proortion of them as older members came out to do stuff. But the reverse is also true - there are lots of centrists who do loads of legwork.

    That said, activism is always a minority. Over the years I'd say about 5% of members are really active (doing something every week or two), rising to 15% at elections (and the 5% are then doing stuff every day). I'm idly curious what the proportions are like in other parties?
    Likely the same, you get a few more at social events and if you count displaying a poster or delivering leaflets in their road
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    She's most likely to win IMO. Certainly in the top 2.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681

    HYUFD said:

    Given the latest poll has Labour only 5% ahead and the Tories still on 35% and the only poll comparing other potential Tory leaders to Boris had Labour still 3% ahead under Sunak and every other alternative leader doing far worse than Boris, he is safe for now.

    Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide

    You're assuming the only reason MPs would get rid of him is because the polling is bad. What if they just don't like him and think someone else would do as well if not better?
    There has always been a sizeable number of Conservative MPs who thought that. But then he went and delivered an 80-seat majority. Whilst many of those who were more politically aligned with their views took on Boris - and lost their seats.

    There is a great deal to be disappointed about in Prime Minister Boris Johnson. But a number here have lost money underestimating Boris. Much of it fuelled by Boris representing all their own personal frustrations on losing the Brexit referendum. They feel he has to be punished/removed/humiliated before they can move on.

    But it may yet be that, if he is emulating his hero Churchill, he has had his Norway. But his VE and VJ days are still ahead of him....

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Levelling up yes, as long as it does not mean levelling you down with higher tax rises on the South to pay for more spending on the redwall
    By definition levelling up implies making the lower deciles better off.
    There is obviously a cost to that aka taxation. So long as it is levelling up to generate a better outcome and not levelling down I'm relaxed about it. Extra taxation isn't a deal breaker.
    It is for Tory voters in the bluewall
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Andy_JS said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    She's most likely to win IMO. Certainly in the top 2.
    Given she polls worse than Boris v Starmer you may as well keep Boris
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1475566541273980929?s=20
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    philiph said:



    Just to add the economic disparity in our society hs become too great. Left unaddressed society will become increasingly dysfunctional and we will all suffer.
    Resources should be redirected.

    The other elephant in the room is global levelling up. The developed world will need to address the abject poverty of billions of people in the non too distant future. That will cost us all.

    Well said, and how good to hear it from your side of the fence. Those two points are actually what keep me in politics - I'm not too bothered about most of the other issues.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 3
    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Yes. But are you prepared to stick your hand in your pocket and substantially pay for it?
    Rather than talk loudly and at length about it?
    To do it, you need to accept your region and millions of voters like that getting relatively poorer over several decades.
    Anything else is fantasy.
    That is blindingly obvious. So yes.
    Just to add the economic disparity in our society hs become too great. Left unaddressed society will become increasingly dysfunctional and we will all suffer.
    Resources should be redirected.

    The other elephant in the room is global levelling up. The developed world will nee to address the abject poverty of billions of people in the non too distant future. That will cost us all.
    People in the developing world are on average richer than they have ever been. Socialism and communism did not do much to increase wealth in China and Eastern Europe, capitalism has
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    @HYUFD as you are so against levelling up why did you campaign for a party putting it at the core of its manifesto. Makes no sense
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 3

    @HYUFD as you are so against levelling up why did you campaign for a party putting it at the core of its manifesto. Makes no sense

    Levelling up yes, however there were no tax rises included in the manifesto either.

    Investment in core infrastructure in the redwall cannot come at the cost of higher taxes on the bluewall
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Levelling up
    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD as you are so against levelling up why did you campaign for a party putting it at the core of its manifesto. Makes no sense

    Levelling up yes, however there were no tax rises included in the manifesto either.

    Investment in core infrastructure in the redwall cannot come at the cost of higher taxes on the bluewall
    Infrastructure investment without tax rises is magical thinking.
    Despite the fact we have higher taxes than for many decades.
    The comments of phiiph and HYUFD show there isn't a scintilla of Tory coherence on this.
    It is a battle yet to be fought.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412
    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Yes. But are you prepared to stick your hand in your pocket and substantially pay for it?
    Rather than talk loudly and at length about it?
    To do it, you need to accept your region and millions of voters like that getting relatively poorer over several decades.
    Anything else is fantasy.
    That is blindingly obvious. So yes.
    Just to add the economic disparity in our society hs become too great. Left unaddressed society will become increasingly dysfunctional and we will all suffer.
    Resources should be redirected.

    The other elephant in the room is global levelling up. The developed world will nee to address the abject poverty of billions of people in the non too distant future. That will cost us all.
    People in the developing world are on average richer than they have ever been. Socialism and communism did not do much to increase wealth in China and Eastern Europe, capitalism has
    Still far too much poverty to be acceptable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited January 3
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    She's most likely to win IMO. Certainly in the top 2.
    Given she polls worse than Boris v Starmer you may as well keep Boris
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1475566541273980929?s=20
    I'm sceptical as to how likely people are to change their vote once a new leader is actually in place. Most Tories will stick with the new leader unless they're completely off the page. Of course people express a preference when the contest is still wide open.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412

    philiph said:



    Just to add the economic disparity in our society hs become too great. Left unaddressed society will become increasingly dysfunctional and we will all suffer.
    Resources should be redirected.

    The other elephant in the room is global levelling up. The developed world will need to address the abject poverty of billions of people in the non too distant future. That will cost us all.

    Well said, and how good to hear it from your side of the fence. Those two points are actually what keep me in politics - I'm not too bothered about most of the other issues.
    Where we differ is that I trust labour to level down too much, which to me is suboptimal within the UK.
    I would hope (note it is hope rather than expect) Conservatives would make a better play on the level up side thus minimising the down for the better off South, but still getting the disparity to acceptable levels.

    We agree on the target, just the means of reaching it may be different.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412
    dixiedean said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    Yes. But the membership is overwhelmingly older, wealthier and more SE based than the electorate as a whole.
    I can't see them wanting anything approaching a levelling up agenda.
    Culture War and cuts yes. Culture War isn't blue collar necessarily.
    Who would be against levelling up?
    On what basis? As an old fart of Conservative disposition in the Home Counties I would love to see successful levelling up.
    Levelling up yes, as long as it does not mean levelling you down with higher tax rises on the South to pay for more spending on the redwall
    By definition levelling up implies making the lower deciles better off.
    There is obviously a cost to that aka taxation. So long as it is levelling up to generate a better outcome and not levelling down I'm relaxed about it. Extra taxation isn't a deal breaker.
    But you can't have levelling up without someone being levelled down.
    That's pure fantasy.
    Ummm Errrrr Confused
    What is extra taxation?
    As stated in my last line.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    edited January 3
    MrEd said:


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    This is wrong. The only way to avoid lockdowns is mitigating spread. And focused protection doesn't work- because it's impossible and unethical to isolate an entire group of people in society.

    ====

    Erm, but it is ok and possible to isolate an entire society via lockdowns and curfews?

    Or perhaps just everyone who can work from home with a decent house and garden and a salary from uni while the others trot up and down the drive delivering the foods and goods and keeping wifi running?

    This is exactly the point. The advocates of lockdowns are almost always middle class professionals with spacious houses, nice gardens and the ability to make the best of the restrictions by working from home. For millions of people living in cramped accommodation with no access to green spaces and limited resources lockdown is utter hell.
    And who have also probably done financially well out of the pandemic - wages protected, lower expenditure due to restrictions and more likely to own asset classes such as equities that have done very well.

    From a personal standpoint, the lockdown has actually been a plus financially and not really that much of an inconvenience. But that’s a very selfish point of view and I realise many are suffering terribly.
    Actually, I don't think that's true at all.

    I suspect that if you broke it down by profession, age, etc., then - like with the EU referendum - there will be people from all walks of life, profession, age, etc who are pro-lockdown, and there will be those who are anti.

    I suspect that two variables will tend to correlate with lockdown: one is trust in authority and the other is pessimism vs optimism. So a pessimist who has faith in authority will be the most pro-lockdown. And an optimist who is distrustful will be anti.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why do you say that? What sort of following does she have amongst MPs? I can't believe the recent polling would have encouraged them.
    I share the general scepticism of Ms Truss's chances with the MP base... that being said, the reality is that the MPs want a leader who keeps their seats and their prospect of a ministerial job.

    This means there will be natural splits: MPs for the former Red Wall will probably want someone very different to an MP facing a challenge from LibDem.

    Ultimately, though, the hypothetical polling is probably going to be the biggest driver: who is seen as most popular with voters. Ms Truss is popular with Conservative members, but she isn't really that well known with the population at large.

    In other words: I don't know. But I would do what I always do in these markets and sell the favorite.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,748
    edited January 3
    philiph said:

    The other elephant in the room is global levelling up. The developed world will nee to address the abject poverty of billions of people in the non too distant future. That will cost us all.

    In the last half a century we've been addressing it in a way that also makes us even richer. There's definitely more we could do out of generosity to speed up the process but the general direction of what we've been doing mainly out of self-interest seems to be just wildly successful.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 3
    It looks like a Daily Sport headline....but its true.

    Nurse wakes from 28-day Covid coma after medics give her VIAGRA
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10362771/Nurse-wakes-28-day-Covid-coma-medics-VIAGRA.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 3
    Black children are also now more than twice as likely to be growing up poor as white children, according to the Labour party research, which was based on government figures for households that have a “relative low income” – defined as being below 60% of the median, the standard definition for poverty.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/more-than-half-of-uks-black-children-live-in-poverty-analysis-shows

    No it absolutely isn't. It is a metric of an academic term for what is called relative poverty, that is a very different thing and which the originator of such a term has said wasn't meant to misused in this way as a catch all term for people who are living in actual poverty.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,849
    edited January 3
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the latest poll has Labour only 5% ahead and the Tories still on 35% and the only poll comparing other potential Tory leaders to Boris had Labour still 3% ahead under Sunak and every other alternative leader doing far worse than Boris, he is safe for now.

    Labour would need to be 10% ahead consistently as Kinnock Labour was over Thatcher's Tories in 1990 or the Tories to fall below 30% as May's Tories did in 2019 for Boris to be removed in my view. Unlike IDS, the only other leader to be removed, Boris also has the cushion of having already proved he could win one general election by a landslide

    For all the cheerleading of Starmer, he hasn’t pushed Labour past 40%.
    Not true.

    The Labour collapse in Scotland masks how well they are doing in England. Eg.

    England L 43% C 35%
    Scotland SNP 53% C 20% L 13%
    Wales L 54% PC 21% C 21%

    UK L 39% C 32% LD 9% SNP 5% Grn 5% Ref 4%

    (Survation/Good Morning Britain, 10-11 December)

    Then consider how that Labour support in distributed geographically in England. The Tories are in deep trouble and you do your party a disservice in not facing up to the facts.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,748

    It looks like a Daily Sport headline....but its true.

    Nurse wakes from 28-day Covid coma after medics give her VIAGRA
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10362771/Nurse-wakes-28-day-Covid-coma-medics-VIAGRA.html

    What makes you think it's true? Your link is to the Daily Mail, and the Daily Mail sources it to The Sun.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    edited January 3
    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Third, like Truss in the 2022 leadership election

    It is hard to see Truss not making the final two and if she is there then she's in with a strong chance.
    Why are you sure she will make the final two? Do you know what level of MP support she has?
    From above, if say Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Hunt and either Baker/Harper stood in a contest, which two would come through.

    I don't know but my best guess would be Sunak and Hunt. Possibly Sunak and Baker/or Harper. And Gove had decent support in the 2019 (narrowly beaten by Hunt into second place). I'm far from convinced that Truss has the MPs' support.
    My feel at the moment is the candidate from the pro-Brexit / Blue Collar / economically interventionist wing will make the final round. That grouping is clearly on manoeuvres (eg the letter to the Telegraph), know they have the numbers to get far (the near 100 MPs rebelling against Boris for a start) and have opinions that should appeal to many of the base.

    What might be interesting are the shorts. Jeremy Hunt is a classic example of a bet where us sophisticated elites of PB.com project our own views onto the base. Truss is close by.
    Do you think blue collar/interventionist has a significant following amongst the Tory members?
    I think they will base their vote on who is the best placed leader to keep the Tories in power. I’m sure @HYUFD has a better view than me but I would imagine the base has moved right wards in recent years as many of the pro-EU, socially liberal types have become less comfortable.

    From a betting standpoint for next Tory leader, I think the value bets are from that part of the party.
    That being said... Conservative Home has never been known to be a bastion of Cameroonism, and is generally pretty representative of the membership, and they seem to rate Ms Truss rather highly:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html

    Nadine Dorries - who we're both rather fond of - rates very highly too.

    Priti Patel, on the other hand, is not well regarded.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    Black children are also now more than twice as likely to be growing up poor as white children, according to the Labour party research, which was based on government figures for households that have a “relative low income” – defined as being below 60% of the median, the standard definition for poverty.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/more-than-half-of-uks-black-children-live-in-poverty-analysis-shows

    No it absolutely isn't. It is a metric of an academic term for what is called relative poverty, that is a very different thing and which the originator of such a term has said wasn't meant to misused in this way as a catch all term for people who are living in actual poverty.

    Hang on.

    While you might argue about what defines poverty, their point was that "black children are twice as likely as white children to grow up in poorer homes." Now, you can say that isn't true poverty - and it certainly isn't compared to the 1930s or even the 1960s - but that point seems largely inarguable.
This discussion has been closed.