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Contrasting betting charts for two very different by-elections – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageContrasting betting charts for two very different by-elections – politicalbetting.com

Both charts are from Smarkets which now has the widest range of political betting markets.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Couldn't possibly comment.
  • Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!

    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
  • FPT
    tlg86 said:

    1-4 in the Merseyside Derby.

    The way the season has started, it wouldn't surprise me if either Liverpool or Chelsea (or both) smash City's goals scored in a season and goal difference over a season records.

    43 goals in 14 games is a remarkable record for a team in third place!

    I think the betting is massively underestimating Liverpool's chances.
    Nah, we're going to be utterly buggered when Salah, Mane, and Keita disappear for a month for the Africa Cup of Nations at the end of the month.

    The first match they miss is Chelsea away.
  • Astonishing to think Everton have a bigger net spend than Liverpool since Klopp became Liverpool manager.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    The federal authorities have identified the first confirmed case of the Omicron coronavirus variant in the United States.
  • Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!

    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
    I was born and educated next door but my local knowledge is half a century out of date. I'd be rather surprised if the stolid countryfolk of Oswestry, Wem, Whitchurch and Ellesmere harboured radical thoughts or, indeed, any thoughts at all.
  • Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!

    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
    What were you saying at Chesham & Amersham? I got slammed here for tipping the LDs there and the Tories got totally walloped.

    I don't think the LDs have as good a chance in Shropshire but only a fool bets against LD by-election campaign which is going full gas.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    1-4 in the Merseyside Derby.

    The way the season has started, it wouldn't surprise me if either Liverpool or Chelsea (or both) smash City's goals scored in a season and goal difference over a season records.

    43 goals in 14 games is a remarkable record for a team in third place!

    I think the betting is massively underestimating Liverpool's chances.
    Nah, we're going to be utterly buggered when Salah, Mane, and Keita disappear for a month for the Africa Cup of Nations at the end of the month.

    The first match they miss is Chelsea away.
    I reckon they'll play in the Chelsea game and then go.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651

    Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!

    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
    Looking at the PP odds, it's 1/14 the Conservatives so stick £28k on now and you could have £30k by the early hours of Friday. However, the Tory vote share odds look more interesting.

    5/2 50-54.99% looks sensible but if @HYUFD is right and there's been very little movement, could 7/1 55-59.99% be worth a play?

    As for North Shropshire, 3/10 Conservatives, 2/1 Liberal Democrats illustrates why there are so few poor bookies. Neither price tempts if I'm being honest.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,803

    Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!

    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
    What were you saying at Chesham & Amersham? I got slammed here for tipping the LDs there and the Tories got totally walloped.

    I don't think the LDs have as good a chance in Shropshire but only a fool bets against LD by-election campaign which is going full gas.
    Shouldn't you encourage him/her then?

  • Does anyone know of an album more sampled than James Brown's In The Jungle Groove?
  • tlg86 said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    1-4 in the Merseyside Derby.

    The way the season has started, it wouldn't surprise me if either Liverpool or Chelsea (or both) smash City's goals scored in a season and goal difference over a season records.

    43 goals in 14 games is a remarkable record for a team in third place!

    I think the betting is massively underestimating Liverpool's chances.
    Nah, we're going to be utterly buggered when Salah, Mane, and Keita disappear for a month for the Africa Cup of Nations at the end of the month.

    The first match they miss is Chelsea away.
    I reckon they'll play in the Chelsea game and then go.
    Hope so.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 950

    Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!
    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
    I was born and educated next door but my local knowledge is half a century out of date. I'd be rather surprised if the stolid countryfolk of Oswestry, Wem, Whitchurch and Ellesmere harboured radical thoughts or, indeed, any thoughts at all.
    From what I hear, the overwhelming thought is that they have been very badly let down by the Tories. As we all have.
  • Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!

    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
    What were you saying at Chesham & Amersham? I got slammed here for tipping the LDs there and the Tories got totally walloped.

    I don't think the LDs have as good a chance in Shropshire but only a fool bets against LD by-election campaign which is going full gas.
    LD may well win Shropshire N. And you will still have 11 seats after the next GE 👍
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656
    IanB2 said:

    The federal authorities have identified the first confirmed case of the Omicron coronavirus variant in the United States.

    Shocking..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    tlg86 said:

    1-4 in the Merseyside Derby.

    The way the season has started, it wouldn't surprise me if either Liverpool or Chelsea (or both) smash City's goals scored in a season and goal difference over a season records.

    43 goals in 14 games is a remarkable record for a team in third place!

    I think the betting is massively underestimating Liverpool's chances.
    Nah, we're going to be utterly buggered when Salah, Mane, and Keita disappear for a month for the Africa Cup of Nations at the end of the month.

    The first match they miss is Chelsea away.
    I reckon they'll play in the Chelsea game and then go.
    Hope so.
    That would be ideal.

    Looking at the fixture list, the remarkable thing is that we've got 43 goals after 14 games having played almost all of the traditionally good clubs already - and haven't even played the Saudis yet.

    Wolves, Villa, Saudis, Spurs and Leicester yet to play from the first half of the season (with Leeds for the second time before Leicester).

    Could be over 60 goals scored already before the end of 2021.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511
    edited December 2021
    Off topic, but has anybody else noticed how Starmer has suddenly started smiling, grinning even, when confronting Boris at PMQs? I think he's been getting some good advice that he can still be serious without being permanently dour.
  • France reports 49,610 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April 4

    Portugal reports 4,670 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 6
  • Off topic, but has anybody else noticed how Starmer has suddenly started smiling, grinning even, when confronting Boris at PMQs? I think he's been getting some good advice that he can still be serious without being permanently dour.

    Let's hope so. Worked for Wilson.
  • Mirror going again on the not Christmas party....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466173065348677632?s=20
  • Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".
  • Britain has bought enough vaccines for two more boosters per person, under a deal to provide 114 million more jabs that can be modified against new variants.

    Ministers said the deal with Moderna and Pfizer, covering two more years, would “futureproof” the country beyond this winter’s rollout.

    Telegraph
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
  • Britain has bought enough vaccines for two more boosters per person, under a deal to provide 114 million more jabs that can be modified against new variants.

    Ministers said the deal with Moderna and Pfizer, covering two more years, would “futureproof” the country beyond this winter’s rollout.

    Telegraph

    I wonder what variant we will be on by then? the Nu Nu Xi Omega Pi Pi+ ?
  • Britain has bought enough vaccines for two more boosters per person, under a deal to provide 114 million more jabs that can be modified against new variants.

    Ministers said the deal with Moderna and Pfizer, covering two more years, would “futureproof” the country beyond this winter’s rollout.

    Telegraph

    Fantastic news.

    Anyone who wants restrictions needs to be told to jog on. Keep getting jabs as often as needed to maintain and boost protection, but other than that lets live our lives. 💉 👍
  • France reports 49,610 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April 4

    Portugal reports 4,670 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 6

    That is bad news about Portugal. iirc they are very well vaxed. So will be interesting to see hospital stats in two or three weeks.
  • After the movie discussion earlier ...
    image
  • Off topic, but has anybody else noticed how Starmer has suddenly started smiling, grinning even, when confronting Boris at PMQs? I think he's been getting some good advice that he can still be serious without being permanently dour.

    Couple of factors I can think of.

    One is that success breeds success, and vice versa. Having seen the Conservatives reopen their poll lead after parity this time last year clearly did a lot for the confidence of both leaders. As must the closing back of that gap again.

    The other highlights a fundamental difference between the two men leading the big two parties. BoJo has the talent, there's no denying it. But I doubt that even his greatest fans can say he has ever shown application. The strengths and weaknesses are exactly the same ones he had as a schoolboy. Even if he wanted to change now (and does he?), he's reached an age where he has the face he deserves and can't alter it.

    Starmer doesn't have the same talent. But on the other hand, he clearly works harder and learns fast. Have to admit, I like that in someone running the country.
  • ClippP said:

    Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!
    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
    I was born and educated next door but my local knowledge is half a century out of date. I'd be rather surprised if the stolid countryfolk of Oswestry, Wem, Whitchurch and Ellesmere harboured radical thoughts or, indeed, any thoughts at all.
    From what I hear, the overwhelming thought is that they have been very badly let down by the Tories. As we all have.
    In what way(s) have they been "very badly let down"?
  • Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    I commented similarly on a covid drug report on one of yesterday's threads, so perhaps "pregnant people" is common usage over there, like "happy holidays".
  • Michael Levitt seems to be predicting that many of the european crisis points will be peaking in next few days and then decline case numbers wise.

    if I have understood Gompertz J(t) things.

    https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1465620317028638722
  • Mirror going again on the not Christmas party....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466173065348677632?s=20

    Blimey, that's a bad photo of Bozza.

    I've mused before that there might be something Samson-like about his hair; once it goes, so will his power.
    We might be quite close to testing that theory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    France reports 49,610 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April 4

    Portugal reports 4,670 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 6

    That is bad news about Portugal. iirc they are very well vaxed. So will be interesting to see hospital stats in two or three weeks.
    Across Europe cases are exploding. I think we are going to see fairly quickly if 2 jabs is enough. Fingers crossed, its 2 keeps you out of hospital, 3 does the business to keeps you from catching / asymptomatic.
  • Going back to films, I don't think anyone has mentioned The Apartment?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Mirror going again on the not Christmas party....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1466173065348677632?s=20

    Blimey, that's a bad photo of Bozza.

    I've mused before that there might be something Samson-like about his hair; once it goes, so will his power.
    We might be quite close to testing that theory.
    Needs to hop over to the land of his forefathers and get ones of those cheap hair transplants.
  • France reports 49,610 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April 4

    Portugal reports 4,670 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 6

    That is bad news about Portugal. iirc they are very well vaxed. So will be interesting to see hospital stats in two or three weeks.
    Across Europe cases are exploding. I think we are going to see fairly quickly if 2 jabs is enough. Fingers crossed, its 2 keeps you out of hospital, 3 does the business to keeps you from catching / asymptomatic.
    2 jabs without the 12 weeks uk gap though?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    A triple-vaccinated Israeli doctor has raised fears over the Omicron variant having been in the UK for weeks after saying he believes he caught the strain at a conference in London attended by 1,250 people on November 23.

    Elad Maor, 45, travelled to the capital on November 19 and stayed at a hotel in Islington while attending the three-day convention at ExCeL London in Newham, east London, before returning to Israel.

    The father-of-three, who is a cardiologist at Sheba Medical Centre near Tel Aviv, tested positive for the virus four days later, on November 27, and suffered mild symptoms including a sore throat, fever and muscle ache.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10264537/Israeli-doctor-believes-caught-Omicron-Covid-variant-London-23-November.html

    I think we would all take that as an outcome.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511

    Going back to films, I don't think anyone has mentioned The Apartment?

    I found it a bit Flat.
  • France reports 49,610 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April 4

    Portugal reports 4,670 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 6

    That is bad news about Portugal. iirc they are very well vaxed. So will be interesting to see hospital stats in two or three weeks.
    Across Europe cases are exploding. I think we are going to see fairly quickly if 2 jabs is enough. Fingers crossed, its 2 keeps you out of hospital, 3 does the business to keeps you from catching / asymptomatic.
    I am worried that Europe is going to face a dire winter because they didn't allow the exit wave to occur over the summer.

    All that's done is kick the can down the road to the winter where the virus spreads much easier and when the flu etc are about too.

    Many European nations will now need to either face their equivalent of the exit wave over winter now, while flu etc are about too, or are going to have to go back into lockdown.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235

    Going back to films, I don't think anyone has mentioned The Apartment?

    Someone did (not me).
    It’s bloody brilliant.

  • Andrew L. Croxford
    @andrew_croxford
    ·
    45m
    Wouldn’t it be funny if, after all the unfair flack it took, that two doses of AZ prior to an mRNA booster is the best protection on offer for omicron?
  • A triple-vaccinated Israeli doctor has raised fears over the Omicron variant having been in the UK for weeks after saying he believes he caught the strain at a conference in London attended by 1,250 people on November 23.

    Elad Maor, 45, travelled to the capital on November 19 and stayed at a hotel in Islington while attending the three-day convention at ExCeL London in Newham, east London, before returning to Israel.

    The father-of-three, who is a cardiologist at Sheba Medical Centre near Tel Aviv, tested positive for the virus four days later, on November 27, and suffered mild symptoms including a sore throat, fever and muscle ache.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10264537/Israeli-doctor-believes-caught-Omicron-Covid-variant-London-23-November.html

    I think we would all take that as an outcome.

    Although his wife accompanied him to London, neither she nor any of his children have experienced symptoms or tested positive for Covid-19. “That’s reassuring, I think,” he said. “I think the transmissibility of this [variant] is not completely different or extremely different to what I know about Delta.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/01/israeli-doctor-believes-he-caught-omicron-variant-of-covid-in-london
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,298

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
  • Going back to films, I don't think anyone has mentioned The Apartment?

    I found it a bit Flat.
    Ha. ha. I see what you did there.
  • France reports 49,610 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April 4

    Portugal reports 4,670 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 6

    That is bad news about Portugal. iirc they are very well vaxed. So will be interesting to see hospital stats in two or three weeks.
    Across Europe cases are exploding. I think we are going to see fairly quickly if 2 jabs is enough. Fingers crossed, its 2 keeps you out of hospital, 3 does the business to keeps you from catching / asymptomatic.
    I am worried that Europe is going to face a dire winter because they didn't allow the exit wave to occur over the summer.

    All that's done is kick the can down the road to the winter where the virus spreads much easier and when the flu etc are about too.

    Many European nations will now need to either face their equivalent of the exit wave over winter now, while flu etc are about too, or are going to have to go back into lockdown.
    I think the bigger problem for many countries is that their vaccination rates among the 60+ population are not as good as ours.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021


    Andrew L. Croxford
    @andrew_croxford
    ·
    45m
    Wouldn’t it be funny if, after all the unfair flack it took, that two doses of AZ prior to an mRNA booster is the best protection on offer for omicron?

    Mix and match is clearly the best strategy. In fact it might be that an AZ, a Pfizer and the Chinese one built on the whole virus (not just the spike protein) might be the ultimate combo, where you immune system has been given the full works.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    Someone FPT mentioned Pan’s Labyrinth.
    Which is justifiable.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    Isn't the issue with "pregnant people" about women who want to be men?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    France reports 49,610 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April 4

    Portugal reports 4,670 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 6

    That is bad news about Portugal. iirc they are very well vaxed. So will be interesting to see hospital stats in two or three weeks.
    Across Europe cases are exploding. I think we are going to see fairly quickly if 2 jabs is enough. Fingers crossed, its 2 keeps you out of hospital, 3 does the business to keeps you from catching / asymptomatic.
    I am worried that Europe is going to face a dire winter because they didn't allow the exit wave to occur over the summer.

    All that's done is kick the can down the road to the winter where the virus spreads much easier and when the flu etc are about too.

    Many European nations will now need to either face their equivalent of the exit wave over winter now, while flu etc are about too, or are going to have to go back into lockdown.
    I think the bigger problem for many countries is that their vaccination rates among the 60+ population are not as good as ours.
    Yes, there seems to be a bit of a dick waving contest over population vaccination percentage across Europe with too many focussed on the raw number rather than who it is getting vaccinated. I'd rather have 65% total population coverage with 100% of over 50s done than 75% total population coverage with 90% of over 50s done. Worse still a lot of booster programmes seem to be very slow getting off the ground, the UK is only one of a handful of countries to make all 18+ eligible. In the face of Omicron this could be really, really important and the difference between another mega lockdown or complete freedom.
  • Astonishing to think Everton have a bigger net spend than Liverpool since Klopp became Liverpool manager.

    Net spend is extremely misleading as it's all transfer fee, I believe. That's just not how accounting for player cost works as you spread that over several years and it tends to be (although isn't always) overwhelmed by wages, image fees etc. Then you have sell on clauses etc.

    I'd be very surprised if Everton have a more costly squad if you were to go through the contracts and accounting process.

    Everton may well be an underperforming squad for the cost but Liverpool's squad almost certainly isn't "cheaper".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Astonishing to think Everton have a bigger net spend than Liverpool since Klopp became Liverpool manager.

    Net spend is extremely misleading as it's all transfer fee, I believe. That's just not how accounting for player cost works as you spread that over several years and it tends to be (although isn't always) overwhelmed by wages, image fees etc. Then you have sell on clauses etc.

    I'd be very surprised if Everton have a more costly squad if you were to go through the contracts and accounting process.

    Everton may well be an underperforming squad for the cost but Liverpool's squad almost certainly isn't "cheaper".
    "May well be" is a shoo in for Understatement of the Year.
  • Not just one rogue piss-up then...


    ky News
    @SkyNews
    ·
    1h
    COVID-19: Number of social gatherings held at Downing Street in run-up to Christmas last year, Sky News understands
  • I put £2 on Reform for Bexley and hour or so ago at 160.

    Now down to 25.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
  • This just gets worse and worse...

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    1h
    I'm *very* reliably informed by multiple sources that Downing Street staff were also holding end of the week drinks parties in No10 during the FIRST lockdown in spring 2020.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Not just one rogue piss-up then...


    ky News
    @SkyNews
    ·
    1h
    COVID-19: Number of social gatherings held at Downing Street in run-up to Christmas last year, Sky News understands

    "Sky News understands" - They mean they have just read the Mirror...

    They are claiming every Friday was party night.
  • Not just one rogue piss-up then...


    ky News
    @SkyNews
    ·
    1h
    COVID-19: Number of social gatherings held at Downing Street in run-up to Christmas last year, Sky News understands

    "Sky News understands" - They mean they have just read the Mirror...

    They are claiming every Friday was party night.
    I think not. Mirror is talking about one party.

    Looks like multiple journos tonight now have news of more than one party.

    One rule etc...

  • This just gets worse and worse...

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    1h
    I'm *very* reliably informed by multiple sources that Downing Street staff were also holding end of the week drinks parties in No10 during the FIRST lockdown in spring 2020.

    The question I ask is who is leaking is now and why.....
  • This just gets worse and worse...

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    1h
    I'm *very* reliably informed by multiple sources that Downing Street staff were also holding end of the week drinks parties in No10 during the FIRST lockdown in spring 2020.

    The question I ask is who is leaking is now and why.....
    Drunken rat?
  • Not just one rogue piss-up then...


    ky News
    @SkyNews
    ·
    1h
    COVID-19: Number of social gatherings held at Downing Street in run-up to Christmas last year, Sky News understands

    "Sky News understands" - They mean they have just read the Mirror...

    They are claiming every Friday was party night.
    Julia HB has more. Weekly and in first lockdown.

  • This just gets worse and worse...

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    1h
    I'm *very* reliably informed by multiple sources that Downing Street staff were also holding end of the week drinks parties in No10 during the FIRST lockdown in spring 2020.

    The question I ask is who is leaking is now and why.....
    Drunken rat?
    Or push to finish off Boris. Its been sat on for a year.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847
    edited December 2021

    This just gets worse and worse...

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    1h
    I'm *very* reliably informed by multiple sources that Downing Street staff were also holding end of the week drinks parties in No10 during the FIRST lockdown in spring 2020.

    The question I ask is who is leaking is now and why.....
    Someone not keen on lockdowns, disenchanted former staff, or the neighbour?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    I put £2 on Reform for Bexley and hour or so ago at 160.

    Now down to 25.

    Look at you, you demonic market mover, you.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    Oh look, a bullying man pops out of the woodwork

    How many ftm trans people become pregnant?
  • This just gets worse and worse...

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    1h
    I'm *very* reliably informed by multiple sources that Downing Street staff were also holding end of the week drinks parties in No10 during the FIRST lockdown in spring 2020.

    The question I ask is who is leaking is now and why.....
    Someone not keen on lockdowns, disenchanted former staff, or the neighbour?
    The neighbour doesn't drink. Maybe he got sick of the sounds of young staffers getting sh*tfaced next door?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Not just one rogue piss-up then...


    ky News
    @SkyNews
    ·
    1h
    COVID-19: Number of social gatherings held at Downing Street in run-up to Christmas last year, Sky News understands

    "Sky News understands" - They mean they have just read the Mirror...

    They are claiming every Friday was party night.
    Julia HB has more. Weekly and in first lockdown.

    That's in the Mirror tonight....but if other journalists are getting leaked to well that is interesting, as I would say that is more than just a loose lipped staffer that the Mirror managed to get to reveal they might have been some drinkie poos..
  • Well, I am away to bed. I fully expect by tomorrow it will be the news that Downing Street staff partied continuously night and day throughout every lock down in scenes that would have made Tony Wilson blush.
  • This just gets worse and worse...

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    1h
    I'm *very* reliably informed by multiple sources that Downing Street staff were also holding end of the week drinks parties in No10 during the FIRST lockdown in spring 2020.

    The question I ask is who is leaking is now and why.....
    Someone not keen on lockdowns, disenchanted former staff, or the neighbour?
    The neighbour doesn't drink. Maybe he got sick of the sounds of young staffers getting sh*tfaced next door?
    Certainly makes you wonder.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    Oh look, a bullying man pops out of the woodwork

    How many ftm trans people become pregnant?
    By what stretch of the imagination was that post "bullying"?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    The rise of Éric Zemmour shows how far France has shifted to the right - Didier Fassin

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/01/eric-zemmour-france-right-presidential-candidate

    Having listened to an interview with him, where he spoke in French, he makes Tommy Robinson sound moderate on Islam and Muslim immigrants.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    Oh look, a bullying man pops out of the woodwork

    How many ftm trans people become pregnant?
    By what stretch of the imagination was that post "bullying"?
    "which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology" when the poster to whom he was replying implied nothing of the kind. By what stretch of the imagination is that not "bullying", you weapons-grade twonk?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    Oh look, a bullying man pops out of the woodwork

    How many ftm trans people become pregnant?
    By what stretch of the imagination was that post "bullying"?
    "which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology" when the poster to whom he was replying implied nothing of the kind. By what stretch of the imagination is that not "bullying", you weapons-grade twonk?
    Bullying. Weapons grade twonk.
    Oh and trans men get pregnant at the same rates.

    https://helloclue.com/articles/lgbt/what-it-s-like-to-be-pregnant-as-a-transmasculine-person
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited December 2021

    Not just one rogue piss-up then...


    ky News
    @SkyNews
    ·
    1h
    COVID-19: Number of social gatherings held at Downing Street in run-up to Christmas last year, Sky News understands

    "Sky News understands" - They mean they have just read the Mirror...

    They are claiming every Friday was party night.
    Julia HB has more. Weekly and in first lockdown.

    That's in the Mirror tonight....but if other journalists are getting leaked to well that is interesting, as I would say that is more than just a loose lipped staffer that the Mirror managed to get to reveal they might have been some drinkie poos..
    Could be due a £200 fine like this curry house


    ‘ Curry house hid massive indoor party with covered windows at peak of lockdown mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/c…’


    https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/1466179552346984452?s=21
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 687
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    No. The bulk of the demands by trans activists is by men who want to be women and who somehow think that by erasing the word and also the word "mother" (something which Stonewall's CEO recently admitted they did but about which they were wrong) they are somehow being fair to transwomen who are men who cannot get pregnant. People who get pregnant are women. Using that word is accurate and there is no earthly reason not to use it. Because, frankly, a woman who thinks she is a man but then becomes pregnant is showing by her actions that she does not really think she is a man because men can't get pregnant, can't give birth, can't suckle a child. In what sense is a woman who does this a man? It is nonsensical.
    It's dangerous too, that is, violence against women largely exists as a major problem for the simple fact People with XY Chromosomes, no womb, no periods, and no adult breasts also have the characteristic of having 35% more muscle mass than the subclass I shall in this essay call "XX," which I shall define as......

    Women.

    Men and Women are different and to deny it is against sex-based rights that women fought for for over a century. At least be intellectually honest about it and acknowledge that there are sex-based rights and they conflict with gender-based rights, if nothing else.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    A PSCO and a PC have been attacked in a separate incident to the Westminster attack on Buckingham Palace Road this evening an unknown substance was sprayed into their faces one person has been arrested

    3 incidents of somebody spraying things in police officers faces this evening at landmarks in London.
  • isam said:

    Not just one rogue piss-up then...


    ky News
    @SkyNews
    ·
    1h
    COVID-19: Number of social gatherings held at Downing Street in run-up to Christmas last year, Sky News understands

    "Sky News understands" - They mean they have just read the Mirror...

    They are claiming every Friday was party night.
    Julia HB has more. Weekly and in first lockdown.

    That's in the Mirror tonight....but if other journalists are getting leaked to well that is interesting, as I would say that is more than just a loose lipped staffer that the Mirror managed to get to reveal they might have been some drinkie poos..
    Could be due a £200 fine like this curry house


    ‘ Curry house hid massive indoor party with covered windows at peak of lockdown mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/c…’


    https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/1466179552346984452?s=21
    Somebody on the previous thread said they reckoned they had had worse curries than Omicron covid....sounds like the above the ideal place to experience the double whammy.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    Oh look, a bullying man pops out of the woodwork

    How many ftm trans people become pregnant?
    By what stretch of the imagination was that post "bullying"?
    "which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology" when the poster to whom he was replying implied nothing of the kind. By what stretch of the imagination is that not "bullying", you weapons-grade twonk?
    Bullying. Weapons grade twonk.
    Oh and trans men get pregnant at the same rates.

    https://helloclue.com/articles/lgbt/what-it-s-like-to-be-pregnant-as-a-transmasculine-person
    You don't see any element of asking for it there?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    Oh look, a bullying man pops out of the woodwork

    How many ftm trans people become pregnant?
    By what stretch of the imagination was that post "bullying"?
    "which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology" when the poster to whom he was replying implied nothing of the kind. By what stretch of the imagination is that not "bullying", you weapons-grade twonk?
    Bullying. Weapons grade twonk.
    Oh and trans men get pregnant at the same rates.

    https://helloclue.com/articles/lgbt/what-it-s-like-to-be-pregnant-as-a-transmasculine-person
    You don't see any element of asking for it there?
    Not really no.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    No. The bulk of the demands by trans activists is by men who want to be women and who somehow think that by erasing the word and also the word "mother" (something which Stonewall's CEO recently admitted they did but about which they were wrong) they are somehow being fair to transwomen who are men who cannot get pregnant. People who get pregnant are women. Using that word is accurate and there is no earthly reason not to use it. Because, frankly, a woman who thinks she is a man but then becomes pregnant is showing by her actions that she does not really think she is a man because men can't get pregnant, can't give birth, can't suckle a child. In what sense is a woman who does this a man? It is nonsensical.
    It's not even that, though, it's mainly serious twits of both sexes who are as boringly ciswhateversextheywereborn as it is humanly possible to be, making a desperate and unthoughtout stab at right on-ness.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    Oh look, a bullying man pops out of the woodwork

    How many ftm trans people become pregnant?
    By what stretch of the imagination was that post "bullying"?
    "which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology" when the poster to whom he was replying implied nothing of the kind. By what stretch of the imagination is that not "bullying", you weapons-grade twonk?
    Bullying. Weapons grade twonk.
    Oh and trans men get pregnant at the same rates.

    https://helloclue.com/articles/lgbt/what-it-s-like-to-be-pregnant-as-a-transmasculine-person
    You don't see any element of asking for it there?
    Not really no.
    Oh.
  • Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!

    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
    I was born and educated next door but my local knowledge is half a century out of date. I'd be rather surprised if the stolid countryfolk of Oswestry, Wem, Whitchurch and Ellesmere harboured radical thoughts or, indeed, any thoughts at all.
    Oi oi… at least we can count all 14 of the candidates bestowed upon us using the fingers of two hands :smiley:

    All depends on (1) the ‘left’ deciding who the tactical vote choice is (compared to last GE it’s Lab; compared to local elex it’s LD) then turning out for them in formidable numbers for a mid Dec by-election, and (2) the ‘right’ staying home or voting for the vast array of right-leaning splinter candidates and indies (including the former council leader’s daughter for Reform).

    The buffer of Paterson’s majority should keep it blue.. but that’s what they said in Chesham with an MP who died with a damehood, rather than flouncing out when the oiks wouldn’t give him a free pass for his poor behaviour.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    France reports 49,610 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April 4

    Portugal reports 4,670 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 6

    That is bad news about Portugal. iirc they are very well vaxed. So will be interesting to see hospital stats in two or three weeks.
    Across Europe cases are exploding. I think we are going to see fairly quickly if 2 jabs is enough. Fingers crossed, its 2 keeps you out of hospital, 3 does the business to keeps you from catching / asymptomatic.
    2 jabs without the 12 weeks uk gap though?
    Portugal started with a longer gap when they didn't have the supplies, and then reduced it as Pfizer came through in the summer.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Couldn't possibly comment.

    Oh go on!

    Seems like a triumph of hope over reality in Shropshire North to me.
    I was born and educated next door but my local knowledge is half a century out of date. I'd be rather surprised if the stolid countryfolk of Oswestry, Wem, Whitchurch and Ellesmere harboured radical thoughts or, indeed, any thoughts at all.
    Oi oi… at least we can count all 14 of the candidates bestowed upon us using the fingers of two hands :smiley:

    All depends on (1) the ‘left’ deciding who the tactical vote choice is (compared to last GE it’s Lab; compared to local elex it’s LD) then turning out for them in formidable numbers for a mid Dec by-election, and (2) the ‘right’ staying home or voting for the vast array of right-leaning splinter candidates and indies (including the former council leader’s daughter for Reform).

    The buffer of Paterson’s majority should keep it blue.. but that’s what they said in Chesham with an MP who died with a damehood, rather than flouncing out when the oiks wouldn’t give him a free pass for his poor behaviour.
    Point 1 has largely been settled by Labour making absolutely no effort of any kind. As a quid pro quo for Bexley.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847

    This just gets worse and worse...

    Julia Hartley-Brewer
    @JuliaHB1
    ·
    1h
    I'm *very* reliably informed by multiple sources that Downing Street staff were also holding end of the week drinks parties in No10 during the FIRST lockdown in spring 2020.

    The question I ask is who is leaking is now and why.....
    Someone not keen on lockdowns, disenchanted former staff, or the neighbour?
    The neighbour doesn't drink. Maybe he got sick of the sounds of young staffers getting sh*tfaced next door?
    I believe he is the neighbour in tradition only, although he could no doubt hear them from Kensington.

    I expect it will be claimed that they were having a 'working supper'.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Abortion rights activist tells Newsnight that US has poor healthcare in general for "pregnant people".

    On one hand, it’s not wrong - they are people and they are pregnant. But what I don’t understand is why not just call them women? There is surely nothing discriminatory about that?
    Of course there isn't.

    But some idiots are afraid of bullying men who somehow think that saying what is true and correct is unfair to some men who would like to be women.

    Men's feelings, you see, are much more important than anything else. And if we don't agree they'll scream and shout like deranged toddlers.
    'Pregnant people' is obviously a term used as a courtesy to female-to-male trans people, which would be women pretending to be men in your terminology. So nothing to do with men's feelings (unless you're agreeing that ftm trans people are men?)
    No. The bulk of the demands by trans activists is by men who want to be women and who somehow think that by erasing the word and also the word "mother" (something which Stonewall's CEO recently admitted they did but about which they were wrong) they are somehow being fair to transwomen who are men who cannot get pregnant. People who get pregnant are women. Using that word is accurate and there is no earthly reason not to use it. Because, frankly, a woman who thinks she is a man but then becomes pregnant is showing by her actions that she does not really think she is a man because men can't get pregnant, can't give birth, can't suckle a child. In what sense is a woman who does this a man? It is nonsensical.
    On Mumsnet a few days ago a woman reported that she had been thrown off an iron deficiency group on Facebook and called transphobic for objecting to being called a "uterus owner".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552


    Andrew L. Croxford
    @andrew_croxford
    ·
    45m
    Wouldn’t it be funny if, after all the unfair flack it took, that two doses of AZ prior to an mRNA booster is the best protection on offer for omicron?

    The best protection is almost certainly to come from mixing three different Covid vaccines - my guess probably AZ + Moderna + Pfizer in that order.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    edited December 2021
    Deleted
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,681
    The North Shropshire by-election of 1876 looks like it was fun, when the Conservative only won by 37 votes from the....

    er...

    Conservative?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    The Tory odds on holding N Shropshire have suddenly lengthened, maybe it is me but I really dont see the LDs getting that close - this aint C&A for sure. Anyone on the ground (deepest wildest Shropshire) with a sense of reality?
  • Germany reports 72,041 new coronavirus cases and 419 new deaths

    South Korea reports 5,266 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    BREAKING: U.S. reports 137,465 new coronavirus cases, biggest one-day increase since September

    New York state reports 9,320 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since March
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    edited December 2021
    The sort of trivial detail that annoys me.

    I've just renewed our Economist subs for another three years - a Christmas gift for Mrs J.

    The renewal email states: "Another year of insight awaits"

    Not 'three years'. a year. To make matters worse, the order summary shows the amount paid correctly, but makes no mention of the term.

    Yes, it's trivial, but it's also annoying.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,096
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:


    Andrew L. Croxford
    @andrew_croxford
    ·
    45m
    Wouldn’t it be funny if, after all the unfair flack it took, that two doses of AZ prior to an mRNA booster is the best protection on offer for omicron?

    The best protection is almost certainly to come from mixing three different Covid vaccines - my guess probably AZ + Moderna + Pfizer in that order.
    Triple Pfizered here but I would have gladly taken a Moderna booster if it was on offer.

    Az wasn't an option for my 1st or 2nd dose, and the blood clot issue meant I was in the age range that it was recommended not to have it.

    Speaking of that it looks like they have identified why it can cause these rare blood clots with AZ:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418123
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    The sort of trivial detail that annoys me.

    I've just renewed our Economist subs for another three years - a Christmas gift for Mrs J.

    The renewal email states: "Another year of insight awaits"

    Not 'three years'. a year. To make matters worse, the order summary shows the amount paid correctly, but makes no mention of the term.

    Yes, it's trivial, but it's also annoying.

    Or they are simply pessimistic about their future journalistic standards.
    Yeah, I paid for one year of insight and two years of dross... still a better ratio than most newspapers, though. ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    BREAKING: U.S. reports 137,465 new coronavirus cases, biggest one-day increase since September

    New York state reports 9,320 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since March

    When 'increase' is used is that the daily figure or the daily figure less yesterdays
  • pingping Posts: 1,679
    R4 today - Energy prices to go up 30-35% in April

    Ouch
This discussion has been closed.