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It’s surely less than a 74% chance that the CON will win both? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2021 in General
imageIt’s surely less than a 74% chance that the CON will win both? – politicalbetting.com

One thing we learned about betting on recent by-elections is that punters overstate Tory chances. Heaven knows why I was allowed to bet several hundred pounds on the exchanges at an effective 20/1 that the LDs would win Chesham and Amersham. Some gamblers took a big hit there.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    1st
  • OGH is doing his best for Conservative Party expectations management.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    If I had to place a bet it would be on Win Both.
  • I agree with the analysis. I think the Tories will win both but I can see the Lib Dems coming a closeish 2nd in N Shropshire (within 10-15%) so not necessarily more than 50-60% probability altogether. Although I'm struggling to see how they could lose Bexley even if their vote drops below 50%.
  • If I had to place a bet it would be on Win Both.

    If the Conservatives do win both, which is the most likely outcome, it will strengthen Boris's reported belief that winter elections favour the blue team.
  • I think the best bet is reform to beat the LD and Greens in Bexley at (now) 13/8 - was 2/1 yesterday
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    Statistically speaking, they’re not independent events though are they, even if there will be some esoteric factors for each. The play here is to back the favourite, with a small hedge against Lose Both.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,992
    edited November 2021
    Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    Pfizer pill still looks good against known variants:

    Main protease mutants of SARS-CoV-2 variants remain susceptible to PF-07321332
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.28.470226v1
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511

    Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

    Good to know that the Omicron variant has been helpful to Boris. It's probably not quite as helpful to people who catch it, though. But never mind.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    It’s still quite unnerving

    ‘South Africa reports 4,373 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 404% from last weeks

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1465728934763536388?s=21

    ‘UPDATE: 5x COVID hospitalizations increase ⬆️ in 2 weeks in Gauteng Province 🇿🇦, #Omicron epicenter. This is an increase from 3x over the weekend (for same 2 week period). Partial report of latest week also suggests hospitalizations are accelerating. 🧵 #COVID19 (from @nicd_sa)’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1465788414326976518?s=21


    If this variant quintuples hospital cases every 2 weeks…… my God. It is going to crush many countries

    We are still deep in the woods
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)
  • Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

    Good to know that the Omicron variant has been helpful to Boris. It's probably not quite as helpful to people who catch it, though. But never mind.
    A simple observation provokes a silly response rather than acknowledgement that this is politics

  • Seattle Times ($) - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has sold 838,584 shares, more than half his shares in the company, “for personal financial planning and diversification reasons,” according to a statement Tuesday from a Microsoft spokesperson.
  • Both should be CON holds - but... Chesham & Amersham!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Omicron is still a monumental threat to the globe, and to human society. The not-quite-apocalyptic data out of Israel does not change that. Unfortunately
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    There are no good choices, there are only evil choices, some of which are more evil than others

    Looking at the data today, no country will be able to tolerate large reservoirs of unvaxxed people - OR if they do, they will have to say to them: no jab, no hospital bed

    Hospitalisations quintupling in two weeks??!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333

    Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

    Good to know that the Omicron variant has been helpful to Boris. It's probably not quite as helpful to people who catch it, though. But never mind.
    A simple observation provokes a silly response rather than acknowledgement that this is politics

    It was mildly sarcastic rather than silly.
    If we’re using that term, then we might equally well say that your continued attachment to Boris, despite regular expressions of disillusionment with him, is a bit silly.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    There aren't that many people left who are unvaccinated, haven't had the disease and are middle-aged or older.

    The Government is therefore right not to leap into action. Frankly, I'm all in favour of giving the refusers a good shoeing *IF* it becomes necessary - far better they get locked down to rescue the hospitals rather than all of us - but we don't need to start pushing all sorts of panic buttons immediately.

    If it's possible to manage this thing without embarking down the road of blanket compulsion then that's for the best. Government should always resort to imposition as sparingly as possible. If we can afford to let refusers live and die with the consequences of their decisions then we should.
  • Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
  • Nigelb said:

    Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

    Good to know that the Omicron variant has been helpful to Boris. It's probably not quite as helpful to people who catch it, though. But never mind.
    A simple observation provokes a silly response rather than acknowledgement that this is politics

    It was mildly sarcastic rather than silly.
    If we’re using that term, then we might equally well say that your continued attachment to Boris, despite regular expressions of disillusionment with him, is a bit silly.
    I made an observation that seems realistic and even Boris can have a good day
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    Leon said:


    It’s still quite unnerving

    ‘South Africa reports 4,373 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 404% from last weeks

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1465728934763536388?s=21

    ‘UPDATE: 5x COVID hospitalizations increase ⬆️ in 2 weeks in Gauteng Province 🇿🇦, #Omicron epicenter. This is an increase from 3x over the weekend (for same 2 week period). Partial report of latest week also suggests hospitalizations are accelerating. 🧵 #COVID19 (from @nicd_sa)’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1465788414326976518?s=21


    If this variant quintuples hospital cases every 2 weeks…… my God. It is going to crush many countries

    We are still deep in the woods

    Todays numbers were bad but the read-off is weird. Saturday’s new cases were >3,000, it then ‘fell’ (by reporting date) two days running before bouncing back up to today’s number. So although it’s a big increase, it’s not quite as mindblowing a jump as the 404% might suggest.


    The vast majority of new cases are in Gauteng.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    It could be easily (dis)incentivised through the tax system without making it mandatory.
  • Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Is that the policy in Austria ? I understand it's the policy in Greece.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    edited November 2021
    Some chatter about the partial reinstatement of the Valneva contract:
    https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2021/11/valneva-order-may-be-reinstated-to-fight-omicron/?s=09

    Not the worst idea in the current circumstances, since it’s differentiated from the other vaccines, and recent data looked quite good.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333

    Nigelb said:

    Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

    Good to know that the Omicron variant has been helpful to Boris. It's probably not quite as helpful to people who catch it, though. But never mind.
    A simple observation provokes a silly response rather than acknowledgement that this is politics

    It was mildly sarcastic rather than silly.
    If we’re using that term, then we might equally well say that your continued attachment to Boris, despite regular expressions of disillusionment with him, is a bit silly.
    I made an observation that seems realistic and even Boris can have a good day
    Along with the observation that you’re pleased he is PM.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Is that the policy in Austria ? I understand it's the policy in Greece.
    IIRC the Austrians are also plotting to using fines, but very much larger fines (something like 3,000 Euro,) I think levied just the once.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    I’m with @LostPassword . To my eye, no western democracy will make vaccines mandatory. We are not going to send 6’ 3” armed nurses with syringes around people’s houses with battering rams. There might be fines, or tax disincentives. But that’s no different to discouraging cigarettes and alcohol with the use of financial penalties.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    There aren't that many people left who are unvaccinated, haven't had the disease and are middle-aged or older.

    The Government is therefore right not to leap into action. Frankly, I'm all in favour of giving the refusers a good shoeing *IF* it becomes necessary - far better they get locked down to rescue the hospitals rather than all of us - but we don't need to start pushing all sorts of panic buttons immediately.

    If it's possible to manage this thing without embarking down the road of blanket compulsion then that's for the best. Government should always resort to imposition as sparingly as possible. If we can afford to let refusers live and die with the consequences of their decisions then we should.
    I don’t think we have time to fuck about any more


    “‘It has exploded’: GPs in Johannesburg swamped as omicron Covid infections surge
    One healthcare worker said new variant cases will soon eclipse the summer delta wave, based on the current rate of increase“

    https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1465766476888092672?s=21

    That Telegraph article says Yes most cases are mild, so far. But why? Because the patients are generally young, healthy, vaxxed, middle class, and so on

    When it hits the poor and unvaxxed - and across Africa - with its insane transmissibility….

    This is now going beyond a global health emergency to a potential terminal nightmare. Vaccines seem to work, still, thank God but they will only work if everyone gets one
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

    Good to know that the Omicron variant has been helpful to Boris. It's probably not quite as helpful to people who catch it, though. But never mind.
    A simple observation provokes a silly response rather than acknowledgement that this is politics

    It was mildly sarcastic rather than silly.
    If we’re using that term, then we might equally well say that your continued attachment to Boris, despite regular expressions of disillusionment with him, is a bit silly.
    I made an observation that seems realistic and even Boris can have a good day
    Along with the observation that you’re pleased he is PM.
    I most certainly am at this moment in time as he is taking the right action on omicron
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    Leon said:


    It’s still quite unnerving

    ‘South Africa reports 4,373 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 404% from last weeks

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1465728934763536388?s=21

    ‘UPDATE: 5x COVID hospitalizations increase ⬆️ in 2 weeks in Gauteng Province 🇿🇦, #Omicron epicenter. This is an increase from 3x over the weekend (for same 2 week period). Partial report of latest week also suggests hospitalizations are accelerating. 🧵 #COVID19 (from @nicd_sa)’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1465788414326976518?s=21


    If this variant quintuples hospital cases every 2 weeks…… my God. It is going to crush many countries

    We are still deep in the woods

    Todays numbers were bad but the read-off is weird. Saturday’s new cases were >3,000, it then ‘fell’ (by reporting date) two days running before bouncing back up to today’s number. So although it’s a big increase, it’s not quite as mindblowing a jump as the 404% might suggest.


    The vast majority of new cases are in Gauteng.
    Cases aren't necessarily a particularly reliable measure. Poland reported less than half as many cases as the UK for yesterday, but 526 deaths.

    If South Africa is in really serious trouble with this new variant then a considerable body count should start piling up in another couple of weeks.
  • Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

    I deplore your comment, but am obliged to you nevertheless, because it's grist for my current mill, namely the quest to create then make millions marketing the "Boris Boar" as 21st-century answer to the "Teddy Bear".

    Inspired of by the PM's eloquent (if not exactly classical) tribute to Pippa Pig.

    Worth noting that You-Know-Who aka Number 45 aka Secret POTUS has been widely honored/marketed by proud owners of a "Trumpy Bear". So only naturally for Boris to also get his own animal alter ego.

    Of course the field is littered with plush(er) versions of top politicos. For example, "Billy Possum" for William Howard Taft.

    https://www.ohiohistory.org/learn/education/resource-roundup/november-2019-(1)/billy-possum

    https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2015/11/president-taft-ate-a-lot-of-possums/417873/

    Turns out that President Taft had many surprising encounters with (o)possums, so that "Billy Possum" was quite apt. My guess is that many will say "Boris Boar" is at least as suitable for the Prime Minister, given his many, constant, life-long associations with highly impressive collection real blue-ribbon porkers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    I’m with @LostPassword . To my eye, no western democracy will make vaccines mandatory. We are not going to send 6’ 3” armed nurses with syringes around people’s houses with battering rams. There might be fines, or tax disincentives. But that’s no different to discouraging cigarettes and alcohol with the use of financial penalties.

    Austria and Greece say Hi
  • Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Is that the policy in Austria ? I understand it's the policy in Greece.
    The law is still being written in Austria. It sounds a lot harsher than the first media reports suggested from the latest news. Potentially a €7,200 fine every six months. I wonder whether they would imprison people for non-payment of the fines?

    That's a bit more problematic than a modest recusancy fine.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    Leon said:

    Omicron is still a monumental threat to the globe, and to human society. The not-quite-apocalyptic data out of Israel does not change that. Unfortunately

    Sure, but is it any greater threat than delta? Not clear it is
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:


    It’s still quite unnerving

    ‘South Africa reports 4,373 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 404% from last weeks

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1465728934763536388?s=21

    ‘UPDATE: 5x COVID hospitalizations increase ⬆️ in 2 weeks in Gauteng Province 🇿🇦, #Omicron epicenter. This is an increase from 3x over the weekend (for same 2 week period). Partial report of latest week also suggests hospitalizations are accelerating. 🧵 #COVID19 (from @nicd_sa)’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1465788414326976518?s=21


    If this variant quintuples hospital cases every 2 weeks…… my God. It is going to crush many countries

    We are still deep in the woods

    Todays numbers were bad but the read-off is weird. Saturday’s new cases were >3,000, it then ‘fell’ (by reporting date) two days running before bouncing back up to today’s number. So although it’s a big increase, it’s not quite as mindblowing a jump as the 404% might suggest.


    The vast majority of new cases are in Gauteng.
    Cases aren't necessarily a particularly reliable measure. Poland reported less than half as many cases as the UK for yesterday, but 526 deaths.

    If South Africa is in really serious trouble with this new variant then a considerable body count should start piling up in another couple of weeks.
    So far the South African themselves seem fairly relaxed about it. That might well change, of course, but they seem to be less panicky than other countries which have only tiny numbers of omicron.
  • Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Call it a tax, rather than a fine.

    Smokers have to pay a tax for their unhealthy habits and nobody bats an eyelid.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    edited November 2021
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:


    It’s still quite unnerving

    ‘South Africa reports 4,373 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 404% from last weeks

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1465728934763536388?s=21

    ‘UPDATE: 5x COVID hospitalizations increase ⬆️ in 2 weeks in Gauteng Province 🇿🇦, #Omicron epicenter. This is an increase from 3x over the weekend (for same 2 week period). Partial report of latest week also suggests hospitalizations are accelerating. 🧵 #COVID19 (from @nicd_sa)’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1465788414326976518?s=21


    If this variant quintuples hospital cases every 2 weeks…… my God. It is going to crush many countries

    We are still deep in the woods

    Todays numbers were bad but the read-off is weird. Saturday’s new cases were >3,000, it then ‘fell’ (by reporting date) two days running before bouncing back up to today’s number. So although it’s a big increase, it’s not quite as mindblowing a jump as the 404% might suggest.


    The vast majority of new cases are in Gauteng.
    Cases aren't necessarily a particularly reliable measure. Poland reported less than half as many cases as the UK for yesterday, but 526 deaths.

    If South Africa is in really serious trouble with this new variant then a considerable body count should start piling up in another couple of weeks.
    The hospitalisation data is already evidence enough for significant disquiet. We were told a few days ago this was “mild”. That is bollocks.

    Gauteng has quintupled its hospital cases in 2 weeks, this closely followed the cased which have gone up 400% in the same time. The Israelis say this variant is 2.4x more severe in the unvaxxed. Plus it delivers twice as many breakthroughs in the vaxxed

    It’s bad, and we need to accept it. But it is not the end and there is hope: the jabs
  • Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

    I deplore your comment, but am obliged to you nevertheless, because it's grist for my current mill, namely the quest to create then make millions marketing the "Boris Boar" as 21st-century answer to the "Teddy Bear".

    Inspired of by the PM's eloquent (if not exactly classical) tribute to Pippa Pig.

    Worth noting that You-Know-Who aka Number 45 aka Secret POTUS has been widely honored/marketed by proud owners of a "Trumpy Bear". So only naturally for Boris to also get his own animal alter ego.

    Of course the field is littered with plush(er) versions of top politicos. For example, "Billy Possum" for William Howard Taft.

    https://www.ohiohistory.org/learn/education/resource-roundup/november-2019-(1)/billy-possum

    https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2015/11/president-taft-ate-a-lot-of-possums/417873/

    Turns out that President Taft had many surprising encounters with (o)possums, so that "Billy Possum" was quite apt. My guess is that many will say "Boris Boar" is at least as suitable for the Prime Minister, given his many, constant, life-long associations with highly impressive collection real blue-ribbon porkers.
    Surely "Keir bore" is more appropriate?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,519
    edited November 2021

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Is that the policy in Austria ? I understand it's the policy in Greece.
    The law is still being written in Austria. It sounds a lot harsher than the first media reports suggested from the latest news. Potentially a €7,200 fine every six months. I wonder whether they would imprison people for non-payment of the fines?

    That's a bit more problematic than a modest recusancy fine.
    That does begin to look a bit more like government coercion beyond health costs. I do think Mitsotakis's scheme in Greece sounds potentially much less socially dangerous - apparently it's a much smaller fine of around 100 Euros a month, or something in that region.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Omicron is still a monumental threat to the globe, and to human society. The not-quite-apocalyptic data out of Israel does not change that. Unfortunately

    Sure, but is it any greater threat than delta? Not clear it is
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:


    It’s still quite unnerving

    ‘South Africa reports 4,373 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 404% from last weeks

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1465728934763536388?s=21

    ‘UPDATE: 5x COVID hospitalizations increase ⬆️ in 2 weeks in Gauteng Province 🇿🇦, #Omicron epicenter. This is an increase from 3x over the weekend (for same 2 week period). Partial report of latest week also suggests hospitalizations are accelerating. 🧵 #COVID19 (from @nicd_sa)’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1465788414326976518?s=21


    If this variant quintuples hospital cases every 2 weeks…… my God. It is going to crush many countries

    We are still deep in the woods

    Todays numbers were bad but the read-off is weird. Saturday’s new cases were >3,000, it then ‘fell’ (by reporting date) two days running before bouncing back up to today’s number. So although it’s a big increase, it’s not quite as mindblowing a jump as the 404% might suggest.


    The vast majority of new cases are in Gauteng.
    Cases aren't necessarily a particularly reliable measure. Poland reported less than half as many cases as the UK for yesterday, but 526 deaths.

    If South Africa is in really serious trouble with this new variant then a considerable body count should start piling up in another couple of weeks.
    So far the South African themselves seem fairly relaxed about it. That might well change, of course, but they seem to be less panicky than other countries which have only tiny numbers of omicron.
    The Israeli data says Yes it is worse than delta: more transmissible, more likely to cause breakthrough infections, more likely to reinfect, more likely to cause severe disease in the unvaxxed

    This is supported by the early numbers out of Gauteng
  • glwglw Posts: 7,962
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    When it hits the poor and unvaxxed - and across Africa - with its insane transmissibility….

    This is now going beyond a global health emergency to a potential terminal nightmare. Vaccines seem to work, still, thank God but they will only work if everyone gets one

    20-30 years ago PCR testing and gene sequencing would have been scarce and certainly unaffordable to use widely. We'd be flying blind through this pandemic. And you can forget having effective vaccines in just a year. Even 10 years ago most of these things would have proven much harder to do. In a way we are very lucky this is happening now.

    Even with our technological and scientific advances we are very fortunate that we didn't begin the pandemic with a Delta or Omicron.

    As it is I think the death toll from this pandemic now has a fair chance of exceeding the Spanish flu.
  • Leon said:

    I’m with @LostPassword . To my eye, no western democracy will make vaccines mandatory. We are not going to send 6’ 3” armed nurses with syringes around people’s houses with battering rams. There might be fines, or tax disincentives. But that’s no different to discouraging cigarettes and alcohol with the use of financial penalties.

    Austria and Greece say Hi
    The policies look like they will be quite different in Austria and Greece. A €100 a month fine (as proposed in Greece) would be affordable by many. The proposed fine in Austria would be 12 times higher, which makes it completely different.

    Then you have the unanswered question of whether non-payment of the fines would ultimately be an imprisonable criminal offence or not. Simply waving the word "mandatory" around is misleading.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,283
    edited November 2021

    Boris was good today and for all his faults I am pleased he is PM at this time rather than Starmer

    The omicron variant in my view has been helpful to Boris and I expect both to be holds

    I deplore your comment, but am obliged to you nevertheless, because it's grist for my current mill, namely the quest to create then make millions marketing the "Boris Boar" as 21st-century answer to the "Teddy Bear".

    Inspired of by the PM's eloquent (if not exactly classical) tribute to Pippa Pig.

    Worth noting that You-Know-Who aka Number 45 aka Secret POTUS has been widely honored/marketed by proud owners of a "Trumpy Bear". So only naturally for Boris to also get his own animal alter ego.

    Of course the field is littered with plush(er) versions of top politicos. For example, "Billy Possum" for William Howard Taft.

    https://www.ohiohistory.org/learn/education/resource-roundup/november-2019-(1)/billy-possum

    https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2015/11/president-taft-ate-a-lot-of-possums/417873/

    Turns out that President Taft had many surprising encounters with (o)possums, so that "Billy Possum" was quite apt. My guess is that many will say "Boris Boar" is at least as suitable for the Prime Minister, given his many, constant, life-long associations with highly impressive collection real blue-ribbon porkers.
    Surely "Keir bore" is more appropriate?
    Last night I suggested "Starmy Squirrel" think your little girl would LOVE it for Xmas 2022! Surely more than a drill bit?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    When it hits the poor and unvaxxed - and across Africa - with its insane transmissibility….

    This is now going beyond a global health emergency to a potential terminal nightmare. Vaccines seem to work, still, thank God but they will only work if everyone gets one

    20-30 years ago large scale PCR testing and gene sequencing would have been scarce and certainly unaffordable to use widely. We'd be flying blind through this pandemic. And you can forget having effective vaccines in just a year. Even 10 years ago most of these things would have proven much harder to do. In a way we are very lucky this is happening now.

    Even with our technological and scientific advances we are very fortunate that we didn't begin the pandemic with a Delta or Omicron.

    As it is I think the death toll from this pandemic now has a fair chance of exceeding the Spanish flu.
    Yes, absolutely

    It’s basic maths innit? Africa has largely avoided a huge wave, no one is sure why. Youth?

    This seems to be their wave, finally. It will sweep across Africa and it could kill tens of millions, putting it up there with Spanish Flu. I still hope to God I am wrong
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Nigelb said:

    Some chatter about the partial reinstatement of the Valneva contract:
    https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2021/11/valneva-order-may-be-reinstated-to-fight-omicron/?s=09

    Not the worst idea in the current circumstances, since it’s differentiated from the other vaccines, and recent data looked quite good.

    Fingers crossed, it seemed like an odd decision anyway. If we were going to cancel any orders it would be Novavax, they've singularly failed to launch and get their vaccine approved. We said the AZ data was messy and they were lucky to get approval so quickly, Novavax seems like a disaster of both the trial and the manufacturing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    I’m with @LostPassword . To my eye, no western democracy will make vaccines mandatory. We are not going to send 6’ 3” armed nurses with syringes around people’s houses with battering rams. There might be fines, or tax disincentives. But that’s no different to discouraging cigarettes and alcohol with the use of financial penalties.

    Austria and Greece say Hi
    The policies look like they will be quite different in Austria and Greece. A €100 a month fine (as proposed in Greece) would be affordable by many. The proposed fine in Austria would be 12 times higher, which makes it completely different.

    Then you have the unanswered question of whether non-payment of the fines would ultimately be an imprisonable criminal offence or not. Simply waving the word "mandatory" around is misleading.
    If the early SA and Israeli data are verified - ie this variant is quite unpleasant for the vaxxed (twice as many breakthroughs) and a fucking horror show for the unvaxxed, then I reckon many countries will go a distance beyond what Greece and Austria are doing. If you want a functioning health system you need 95% of your people jabbed, and that’s that

    Letting people wander around unjabbed now is arguably like letting people drive around after 3 bottles of Rioja. What do we do to those people? We put them in jail
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Feel ready to join the RAF or Australian cricket now.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 950
    On topic.... Have the Lib Dems released their polling figures yet? They did in Chesham and Amersham about this stage in the campaign.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085

    If I had to place a bet it would be on Win Both.

    If the Conservatives do win both, which is the most likely outcome, it will strengthen Boris's reported belief that winter elections favour the blue team.
    It always helps when there's stonking majorities in Leave-friendly seats..
  • Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Call it a tax, rather than a fine.

    Smokers have to pay a tax for their unhealthy habits and nobody bats an eyelid.
    Yes, I've argued the same. We give people a discount on their tax for being married, because we've decided that being married is a social good that we wish to encourage.

    You could easily add an extra penny onto a tax rate, maybe a surcharge onto council tax, and then provide a discount for people who can provide proof of vaccination.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Call it a tax, rather than a fine.

    Smokers have to pay a tax for their unhealthy habits and nobody bats an eyelid.
    Yes, I've argued the same. We give people a discount on their tax for being married, because we've decided that being married is a social good that we wish to encourage.

    You could easily add an extra penny onto a tax rate, maybe a surcharge onto council tax, and then provide a discount for people who can provide proof of vaccination.
    Only if one partner earns below £12,520 I think ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Why? The fundamentals haven't really changed very much for the UK. Once again, everyone is going to get COVID, probably multiple times. The LSHTM model is still very relevant, especially if vaccinated people still have a very high degree of protection from severe symptoms. We also don't know what level of severity reinfection comes in at, if it's 1-3/10 then big who cares, right now it's 5% who get severity of 0-1/10, if that goes up to 10% at 1-3/10 in line with possible VE dilution I'm not sure what vaccine passports are going to achieve other than add a bit of additional theatre and bureaucracy for going out.

    The real disaster will be in poorly vaccinated countries with lots of older people and in middlingly vaccinated countries that didn't have a big exit wave with delta. The UK isn't in either of those categories and in all honesty, even now I'd be shocked if we got vaccines above 50m with two doses before the year is out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Call it a tax, rather than a fine.

    Smokers have to pay a tax for their unhealthy habits and nobody bats an eyelid.
    Yes, I've argued the same. We give people a discount on their tax for being married, because we've decided that being married is a social good that we wish to encourage.

    You could easily add an extra penny onto a tax rate, maybe a surcharge onto council tax, and then provide a discount for people who can provide proof of vaccination.
    It needs to be much more urgent and immediate than a tweak to the bloody tax system. It needs to hurt the unjabbed now, and hard. Look at the numbers
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    Interested to hear how @Leon proposes forcing people to have jabs? Drones armed with syringes a la Leia’s cell in Star Wars perhaps?
  • It's not a fcuking beret, luv.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Call it a tax, rather than a fine.

    Smokers have to pay a tax for their unhealthy habits and nobody bats an eyelid.
    Yes, I've argued the same. We give people a discount on their tax for being married, because we've decided that being married is a social good that we wish to encourage.

    You could easily add an extra penny onto a tax rate, maybe a surcharge onto council tax, and then provide a discount for people who can provide proof of vaccination.
    Only if one partner earns below £12,520 I think ?
    OTOH the tax & benefits system absolutely crucifies people on lower incomes if they move in together in particular circumstances.
  • Interested to hear how @Leon proposes forcing people to have jabs? Drones armed with syringes a la Leia’s cell in Star Wars perhaps?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ovvelflz390
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    When it hits the poor and unvaxxed - and across Africa - with its insane transmissibility….

    This is now going beyond a global health emergency to a potential terminal nightmare. Vaccines seem to work, still, thank God but they will only work if everyone gets one

    20-30 years ago large scale PCR testing and gene sequencing would have been scarce and certainly unaffordable to use widely. We'd be flying blind through this pandemic. And you can forget having effective vaccines in just a year. Even 10 years ago most of these things would have proven much harder to do. In a way we are very lucky this is happening now.

    Even with our technological and scientific advances we are very fortunate that we didn't begin the pandemic with a Delta or Omicron.

    As it is I think the death toll from this pandemic now has a fair chance of exceeding the Spanish flu.
    Yes, absolutely

    It’s basic maths innit? Africa has largely avoided a huge wave, no one is sure why. Youth?

    This seems to be their wave, finally. It will sweep across Africa and it could kill tens of millions, putting it up there with Spanish Flu. I still hope to God I am wrong
    This is literally every night now. You get some booze inside you and become incapable of any rational discussion. The site just gets swamped by your apocalyptic hysteria. Every night. I’ll be back in the morning, when you are either absent, or sober.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Why? The fundamentals haven't really changed very much for the UK. Once again, everyone is going to get COVID, probably multiple times. The LSHTM model is still very relevant, especially if vaccinated people still have a very high degree of protection from severe symptoms. We also don't know what level of severity reinfection comes in at, if it's 1-3/10 then big who cares, right now it's 5% who get severity of 0-1/10, if that goes up to 10% at 1-3/10 in line with possible VE dilution I'm not sure what vaccine passports are going to achieve other than add a bit of additional theatre and bureaucracy for going out.

    The real disaster will be in poorly vaccinated countries with lots of older people and in middlingly vaccinated countries that didn't have a big exit wave with delta. The UK isn't in either of those categories and in all honesty, even now I'd be shocked if we got vaccines above 50m with two doses before the year is out.
    5m unjabbed and naive Brits, + a 2.4x severity rate, + much greater effective R0 = loads of Brits in hospital. Say - for amusement - 24% of them = 1.2m over a winter?

    Let’s say I’m out by an order of magnitude. It’s still 120,000, over a winter. Fuck

    I don’t really care HOW we get these jabs into arms (you might be right and vaxports won’t work - tho they have worked well in France) but we need to do it. Quick

    All governments are, surely, now making this brutal calculations, in the face of the early evidence of Omicron.

  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Call it a tax, rather than a fine.

    Smokers have to pay a tax for their unhealthy habits and nobody bats an eyelid.
    Yes, I've argued the same. We give people a discount on their tax for being married, because we've decided that being married is a social good that we wish to encourage.

    You could easily add an extra penny onto a tax rate, maybe a surcharge onto council tax, and then provide a discount for people who can provide proof of vaccination.
    It needs to be much more urgent and immediate than a tweak to the bloody tax system. It needs to hurt the unjabbed now, and hard. Look at the numbers
    The key number, for the UK, is vaccine effectiveness against serious illness. According to the preliminary data you shared earlier that is unchanged. So with our high vaccination rates in the most at-risk groups, and relatively rapid and accelerating booster programme, that would make the UK best-placed to weather the Omicron storm.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    There aren't that many people left who are unvaccinated, haven't had the disease and are middle-aged or older.

    The Government is therefore right not to leap into action. Frankly, I'm all in favour of giving the refusers a good shoeing *IF* it becomes necessary - far better they get locked down to rescue the hospitals rather than all of us - but we don't need to start pushing all sorts of panic buttons immediately.

    If it's possible to manage this thing without embarking down the road of blanket compulsion then that's for the best. Government should always resort to imposition as sparingly as possible. If we can afford to let refusers live and die with the consequences of their decisions then we should.
    I don’t think we have time to fuck about any more


    “‘It has exploded’: GPs in Johannesburg swamped as omicron Covid infections surge
    One healthcare worker said new variant cases will soon eclipse the summer delta wave, based on the current rate of increase“

    https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1465766476888092672?s=21

    That Telegraph article says Yes most cases are mild, so far. But why? Because the patients are generally young, healthy, vaxxed, middle class, and so on

    When it hits the poor and unvaxxed - and across Africa - with its insane transmissibility….

    This is now going beyond a global health emergency to a potential terminal nightmare. Vaccines seem to work, still, thank God but they will only work if everyone gets one
    Yes, it might have "exploded" in Johannesburg, but the last time I checked Johannesburg wasn't located in Hampshire. We are in a very different place.

    There will be a fair number of people in this country who are still susceptible to serious illness from Covid, but so many of us are multiply vaccinated or recovered from infection that the virus, even if it's in a more transmissible form than Delta, is going to have real trouble finding them all quickly enough to generate a massive hospitalisation wave of the kind last seen in January. As things currently stand case rates have been wobbling up and down rather than continually climbing for the whole period since July - despite the progressively colder and nastier weather - and deaths and hospitalisations have now been in decline for the whole of November.

    Whatever the exact properties of Omicron transpire to be, it is not a completely new illness, it is highly unlikely to have achieved a degree of vaccine escape sufficient to drastically weaken the vaccines' ability to protect against severe disease, and it's not about to rip through that remaining cohort of middle aged and elderly people with no antibodies (whom, taking account of the estimates of the remaining unvaccinated provided by @Malmesbury in the previous thread, and guesstimating an allowance for those who have caught the disease and recovered, are probably somewhere between 1m and 1.5m in total) in a few weeks.

    The wall of immunity that the Omicron wave is going to crash into in this country is most probably too tall and too deep for it to overcome. And that being the case, there's no particular need to ankle tag anti-vaxxers to place them under enforced house arrest, or send Army vaccination squads round to hold them down whilst needles are shoved in them, or whatever else. It's like with people who stubbornly insist on continuing to smoke: it would be a great outcome for the healthcare system if they were all forced to stop, perhaps by being herded at gunpoint into a concentration camp somewhere on Salisbury Plain to do six months of cold turkey from nicotine, but how far do we want to go in forcing people to do stuff? If it's not a matter of vital necessity to society to prevent them from making questionable life choices, then just let them do it and suffer the consequences.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Other countries may be following the Greek and Austrian example of mandatory vaccinations for particular groups, I think.

    I myself have major reservations about that ; it could potentially lead to a major conspiracist backlash the likes of which we've not seen so far.
    I have big problems with calling a system of fines for not being vaccinated "mandatory vaccination". It's simply asking people to pay an additional contribution, in advance, for their possible extra hospital costs because of their wilful refusal to take advantage of a safe and effective vaccine.

    It doesn't make the vaccine mandatory. No-one will be forced to have the vaccine.
    Call it a tax, rather than a fine.

    Smokers have to pay a tax for their unhealthy habits and nobody bats an eyelid.
    Yes, I've argued the same. We give people a discount on their tax for being married, because we've decided that being married is a social good that we wish to encourage.

    You could easily add an extra penny onto a tax rate, maybe a surcharge onto council tax, and then provide a discount for people who can provide proof of vaccination.
    Only if one partner earns below £12,520 I think ?
    OTOH the tax & benefits system absolutely crucifies people on lower incomes if they move in together in particular circumstances.
    Indeed. This is a little appreciated factor in the shortage of affordable housing, both private and social.
    It pays to be single with your single partner occupying another much needed home. Even if you spend almost all the time together.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Why? The fundamentals haven't really changed very much for the UK. Once again, everyone is going to get COVID, probably multiple times. The LSHTM model is still very relevant, especially if vaccinated people still have a very high degree of protection from severe symptoms. We also don't know what level of severity reinfection comes in at, if it's 1-3/10 then big who cares, right now it's 5% who get severity of 0-1/10, if that goes up to 10% at 1-3/10 in line with possible VE dilution I'm not sure what vaccine passports are going to achieve other than add a bit of additional theatre and bureaucracy for going out.

    The real disaster will be in poorly vaccinated countries with lots of older people and in middlingly vaccinated countries that didn't have a big exit wave with delta. The UK isn't in either of those categories and in all honesty, even now I'd be shocked if we got vaccines above 50m with two doses before the year is out.
    5m unjabbed and naive Brits, + a 2.4x severity rate, + much greater effective R0 = loads of Brits in hospital. Say - for amusement - 24% of them = 1.2m over a winter?

    Let’s say I’m out by an order of magnitude. It’s still 120,000, over a winter. Fuck

    I don’t really care HOW we get these jabs into arms (you might be right and vaxports won’t work - tho they have worked well in France) but we need to do it. Quick

    All governments are, surely, now making this brutal calculations, in the face of the early evidence of Omicron.

    You're not making any sense. Let's do this in the morning when you're not smashed.
  • Judge blocks Biden's COVID-19 vaccine rule for healthcare workers across the U.S. - Reuters
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    When it hits the poor and unvaxxed - and across Africa - with its insane transmissibility….

    This is now going beyond a global health emergency to a potential terminal nightmare. Vaccines seem to work, still, thank God but they will only work if everyone gets one

    20-30 years ago large scale PCR testing and gene sequencing would have been scarce and certainly unaffordable to use widely. We'd be flying blind through this pandemic. And you can forget having effective vaccines in just a year. Even 10 years ago most of these things would have proven much harder to do. In a way we are very lucky this is happening now.

    Even with our technological and scientific advances we are very fortunate that we didn't begin the pandemic with a Delta or Omicron.

    As it is I think the death toll from this pandemic now has a fair chance of exceeding the Spanish flu.
    Yes, absolutely

    It’s basic maths innit? Africa has largely avoided a huge wave, no one is sure why. Youth?

    This seems to be their wave, finally. It will sweep across Africa and it could kill tens of millions, putting it up there with Spanish Flu. I still hope to God I am wrong
    This is literally every night now. You get some booze inside you and become incapable of any rational discussion. The site just gets swamped by your apocalyptic hysteria. Every night. I’ll be back in the morning, when you are either absent, or sober.
    Jesus Christ I am entirely rational. I am lying in a hotel in Hereford simply crunching the numbers. They are inescapable

    Yes, they could all be wrong, but this is a numbers-based website.

    Compare it to an election. What we’re getting now is a sense of the postal votes and the first ballot boxes being opened. There is still a long way to go. But there is cause for Bufton Tufton MP for Complacenyshire to think Shit, I could lose this

    UNlike an election we can still change the result! Every indicator says: maximise your jab rate. Which is what the UKG is doing, I just think they need to go further, faster
  • Conservatives gain Franche and Habberly North in Wyre Forest
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    edited November 2021

    It's not a fcuking beret, luv.


    She loves a bit of military cosplay. HALO jump out of an A400M next or fast rope into a hot LZ for the Bexley and Sidcup by-election.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Why? The fundamentals haven't really changed very much for the UK. Once again, everyone is going to get COVID, probably multiple times. The LSHTM model is still very relevant, especially if vaccinated people still have a very high degree of protection from severe symptoms. We also don't know what level of severity reinfection comes in at, if it's 1-3/10 then big who cares, right now it's 5% who get severity of 0-1/10, if that goes up to 10% at 1-3/10 in line with possible VE dilution I'm not sure what vaccine passports are going to achieve other than add a bit of additional theatre and bureaucracy for going out.

    The real disaster will be in poorly vaccinated countries with lots of older people and in middlingly vaccinated countries that didn't have a big exit wave with delta. The UK isn't in either of those categories and in all honesty, even now I'd be shocked if we got vaccines above 50m with two doses before the year is out.
    5m unjabbed and naive Brits, + a 2.4x severity rate, + much greater effective R0 = loads of Brits in hospital. Say - for amusement - 24% of them = 1.2m over a winter?

    Let’s say I’m out by an order of magnitude. It’s still 120,000, over a winter. Fuck

    I don’t really care HOW we get these jabs into arms (you might be right and vaxports won’t work - tho they have worked well in France) but we need to do it. Quick

    All governments are, surely, now making this brutal calculations, in the face of the early evidence of Omicron.

    You're not making any sense. Let's do this in the morning when you're not smashed.
    I’m absolutely not smashed, I’m just using shorthand

    OMICRON THE WRATHFUL is super infectious

    ‘Per the report, the really bad news is Omicron appears to have an R that's 1.3x that of Delta. That's a crazy high infection rate. Means case numbers can spiral out of control almost before you notice them.

    THIS IS VERY PRELIMINARY DATA -- DON'T BE SURPRISED IF IT CHANGES’

    This is what is happening in Gauteng, right now, explosions of cases - so it could be right

    But is it serious? The Gauteng hospital data implies that it is

    So does this:

    ‘First stats for Omicron in Israel: protection for vaccinated similar to Delta while the unvaccinated have 2.4 times the chance of becoming seriously sick then original strain.
    #GetVaccinated’

    https://twitter.com/postsecret/status/1465823793952083968?s=21

    It was first thought that Covid put 5-10% of cases in hospital (yes there are many variables but this is fag packet epidemiology)

    If there are 5m naive unvaxxed people in Britain and we are not on a super strict lockdown then with this infectiousness most of them will get this, and very soon. If 5% go to hospital that’s 250,000. multiply it by 2.4 (Omicron) it’s a million. Say I’m out by an order of magnitude it’s still 100,000. And that’s if I am out by an order of magnitude - big ask

    This is a major threat which is why all governments are consumed with anxiety and acting with concerted alarm
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    The data isn't from Israel (they only have 4 confirmed cases). It is preliminary data from SA, sent to Israel (and I presume other nations), but leaked by somebody to their local media.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    The data isn't from Israel (they only have 4 confirmed cases). It is preliminary data from SA, sent to Israel (and I presume other nations), but leaked by somebody to their local media.

    Which makes it much more valuable and interesting, ofc
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Night night PB, night night

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349

    Judge blocks Biden's COVID-19 vaccine rule for healthcare workers across the U.S. - Reuters

    The amount of political power US judges have is absolubtely crackers.
  • Leon said:

    Night night PB, night night

    Quick lock the door before he can get back in....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920

    Both should be CON holds - but... Chesham & Amersham!

    Yes, that's my state of mind. With the big parties on level pegging nationally, I can't honestly see Labour even coming close in Bexley (though I have no recent inside info). Shropshire has more time for the LibDems to work on, so it's hard to rule it out altogether. But I'd put the Tory chance of a double win at 85% or so.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    I not sure I agree with your oh my God omicron is end of days stuff. I’ll concede to you the “health systems they pressure” point, because any uptick across the figures it will likely hit the tired NHS frontline the same time as winter flu peaks after Christmas?

    I suspect the governments to hold the current line till Christmas is saved as normal as possible and then concede some other measures. Does this reading of the situation seem sensible?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004

    Leon said:

    Night night PB, night night

    Quick lock the door before he can get back in....
    Shouldn’t someone have called him a taxi 💁‍♀️
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,333
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    I not sure I agree with your oh my God omicron is end of days stuff. I’ll concede to you the “health systems they pressure” point, because any uptick across the figures it will likely hit the tired NHS frontline the same time as winter flu peaks after Christmas?

    I suspect the governments to hold the current line till Christmas is saved as normal as possible and then concede some other measures. Does this reading of the situation seem sensible?
    Extrapolating from limited datasets does not make the numbers ‘inescapable’, but rather utterly unreliable.
    It will be a while yet before we know what the variant will do here.

    Good night all.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,334
    edited December 2021
    Out of curiousity as I saw him comment upthread.

    @Dura_Ace apparently she wont get the vaccine as tested on animals I am told

    Do we then assume none of your cars are painted as I know for a fact all the chemicals in car paint have ld50 figures which means they have been tested on animals
  • Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    Why? The fundamentals haven't really changed very much for the UK. Once again, everyone is going to get COVID, probably multiple times. The LSHTM model is still very relevant, especially if vaccinated people still have a very high degree of protection from severe symptoms. We also don't know what level of severity reinfection comes in at, if it's 1-3/10 then big who cares, right now it's 5% who get severity of 0-1/10, if that goes up to 10% at 1-3/10 in line with possible VE dilution I'm not sure what vaccine passports are going to achieve other than add a bit of additional theatre and bureaucracy for going out.

    The real disaster will be in poorly vaccinated countries with lots of older people and in middlingly vaccinated countries that didn't have a big exit wave with delta. The UK isn't in either of those categories and in all honesty, even now I'd be shocked if we got vaccines above 50m with two doses before the year is out.
    5m unjabbed and naive Brits, + a 2.4x severity rate, + much greater effective R0 = loads of Brits in hospital. Say - for amusement - 24% of them = 1.2m over a winter?

    Let’s say I’m out by an order of magnitude. It’s still 120,000, over a winter. Fuck

    I don’t really care HOW we get these jabs into arms (you might be right and vaxports won’t work - tho they have worked well in France) but we need to do it. Quick

    All governments are, surely, now making this brutal calculations, in the face of the early evidence of Omicron.

    You're not making any sense. Let's do this in the morning when you're not smashed.
    I’m absolutely not smashed, I’m just using shorthand

    OMICRON THE WRATHFUL is super infectious

    ‘Per the report, the really bad news is Omicron appears to have an R that's 1.3x that of Delta. That's a crazy high infection rate. Means case numbers can spiral out of control almost before you notice them.

    THIS IS VERY PRELIMINARY DATA -- DON'T BE SURPRISED IF IT CHANGES’

    This is what is happening in Gauteng, right now, explosions of cases - so it could be right

    But is it serious? The Gauteng hospital data implies that it is

    So does this:

    ‘First stats for Omicron in Israel: protection for vaccinated similar to Delta while the unvaccinated have 2.4 times the chance of becoming seriously sick then original strain.
    #GetVaccinated’

    https://twitter.com/postsecret/status/1465823793952083968?s=21

    It was first thought that Covid put 5-10% of cases in hospital (yes there are many variables but this is fag packet epidemiology)

    If there are 5m naive unvaxxed people in Britain and we are not on a super strict lockdown then with this infectiousness most of them will get this, and very soon. If 5% go to hospital that’s 250,000. multiply it by 2.4 (Omicron) it’s a million. Say I’m out by an order of magnitude it’s still 100,000. And that’s if I am out by an order of magnitude - big ask

    This is a major threat which is why all governments are consumed with anxiety and acting with concerted alarm
    If our vaccination rates were even across age groups then your rough calculations might have done validity. But they aren't. So they don't.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Is it not irresponsible for the Labour Supporting Daily Mirror to run with this Boris story right now? So he had a works drinkies. Number ten say all guidelines were followed for such things, though it may have been a bit naughty. But more importantly, if further measures need to be introduced, which presumably being Labour the mirror will back, it needs people to follow them, which this story is undermining the likelihood of happening. Whatever argument they used to print to say it’s in national interest, It’s not in the National Interest for stories like that right now, in this difficult winter, undermining the governments virus fight no wonder other media organisations are not touching it. They should have held it back rather than undermine the country’s Covid measures shouldn’t they?

    Have a good night 🙋‍♀️
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    I not sure I agree with your oh my God omicron is end of days stuff. I’ll concede to you the “health systems they pressure” point, because any uptick across the figures it will likely hit the tired NHS frontline the same time as winter flu peaks after Christmas?

    I suspect the governments to hold the current line till Christmas is saved as normal as possible and then concede some other measures. Does this reading of the situation seem sensible?
    Extrapolating from limited datasets does not make the numbers ‘inescapable’, but rather utterly unreliable.
    It will be a while yet before we know what the variant will do here.

    Good night all.
    Yes I agree. Omicron not certain at this stage to be a problem for Britain. If no uptick after Christmas so no more measures required to help NHS that will be a bonus.

    We have to stop dwelling on Covid tomorrow whilst wait for more knowledge and Covid talk all day is going to get us all depressed. I’ll lay down the law on that tomorrow. This is political betting dot com not armchair epicentreolgist.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    CNN suspends Chris Cuomo indefinitely

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/30/media/chris-cuomo-suspended/index.html

    Accused of digging dirt on those who were accusing his brother.
  • Incoming chancellor Scholz wants vaccine mandate in Germany
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Persons who are unwell, or who have not been fully vaccinated or do not have proof of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and are at increased risk of developing severe disease and dying, including people 60 years of age or older or those with comorbidities that present increased risk of severe COVID-19 (e.g. heart disease, cancer and diabetes) should be advised to postpone travel to areas with community transmission.

    https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/who-advice-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-the-sars-cov-2-omicron-variant
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    LDs are around 5/2 to win North Shropshire with BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
  • South Korea reports 5,123 new coronavirus cases, exceeding last week's all-time high by 25%
  • Andy_JS said:

    LDs are around 5/2 to win North Shropshire with BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448

    Hurrah. I am now green.
  • Incoming chancellor Scholz wants vaccine mandate in Germany

    clearly he's not read any history.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Incoming chancellor Scholz wants vaccine mandate in Germany

    clearly he's not read any history.
    I have to say I am somewhat surprised by Germany considering this, given that part of their history of labelling certain groups as unclean and disease carriers and how touchy Germany is about this.

    I presumed they would have just continued to go down the nudge route of basically making it a pain in the arse / impossible to do enjoyable social things in life without being vaccinated.

    But then I learned today apparently you can't play golf in Germany, without first a doing a test to gain a licence, akin to a driving licence.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 939

    Incoming chancellor Scholz wants vaccine mandate in Germany

    clearly he's not read any history.
    I have to say I am somewhat surprised by Germany considering this, given that part of their history of labelling certain groups as unclean and disease carriers and how touchy Germany is about this.

    I presumed they would have just continued to go down the nudge route of basically making it a pain in the arse / impossible to do enjoyable social things in life without being vaccinated.

    But then I learned today apparently you can't play golf in Germany, without first a doing a test to gain a licence, akin to a driving licence.
    The latter is a ridiculous bar to pass to do something. The former is on another level, violating bodily integrity just to exist. I am all for stopping people going to offices or getting on planes without a vaccine, but to require it for people sitting on their home really crosses a line.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 939
    Mandatory vaccines just for existing is just WRONG. The right thing to do is vaccine passports to get to do anything where you mix outside your household, and you get deprioritized on the NHS behind every other treatment. If we get to you, we get to you. If not, it is your own fault.
  • Somebody on SAGE leaking again for their agenda....

    Omicron may require 'very stringent response'
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59484322
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085

    Somebody on SAGE leaking again for their agenda....

    Omicron may require 'very stringent response'
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59484322

    depends on their agenda if they believe it involves saving lives.... BJ has a track record on hesitation on numerous occasions and I am not tending to believe the `experts'.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    Pagan2 said:

    Out of curiousity as I saw him comment upthread.

    @Dura_Ace apparently she wont get the vaccine as tested on animals I am told

    Do we then assume none of your cars are painted as I know for a fact all the chemicals in car paint have ld50 figures which means they have been tested on animals

    People FPT are saying they'd go veggie for a while if he got jabbed.

    Now, that's rewarding bad behaviour. Since the stick often works better than the carrot, I'll go the opposite way: Dura, if you don't get yourself jabbed, I'll have a delicious, mouth-watering bacon sandwich, or glistening rare steak, or a sublime chicken korma, every day until you do. I'll eat *more* meat than I normally do.

    There: think of the animals you'll save. ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    "The omicron hysteria shows we are being led by experts who have no idea what living a normal life is

    Scores more Covid variants will come along in our lifetimes and they should not be a cause for panic, until proven otherwise
    ALLISON PEARSON"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2021/11/30/omicron-hysteria-shows-led-experts-have-no-idea-living-normal/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301

    Incoming chancellor Scholz wants vaccine mandate in Germany

    clearly he's not read any history.
    I have to say I am somewhat surprised by Germany considering this, given that part of their history of labelling certain groups as unclean and disease carriers and how touchy Germany is about this.

    I presumed they would have just continued to go down the nudge route of basically making it a pain in the arse / impossible to do enjoyable social things in life without being vaccinated.

    But then I learned today apparently you can't play golf in Germany, without first a doing a test to gain a licence, akin to a driving licence.
    When under stress, nations revert to type.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    edited December 2021
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-10260013/Arsenal-star-Gabriel-horror-baseball-bat-attack-thugs-try-steal-45-000-Mercedes-watch.html

    Police linked Muse to the raid from DNA after his hat fell off during the struggle

    Muse, from Tottenham, has a string of convictions dating back to 2009, when he was caught in possession of a prohibited weapon.

    He was on licence when he attacked Gabriel after being given a 56-month sentence for possessing heroin with intent to supply.

    Judge Thompson jailed Muse for five years over one count of robbery and one of possession of an offensive weapon.


    Firstly, what an idiot for wearing a hat.

    Secondly, surely he should have got more than five years given his previous.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    tlg86 said:

    Incoming chancellor Scholz wants vaccine mandate in Germany

    clearly he's not read any history.
    I have to say I am somewhat surprised by Germany considering this, given that part of their history of labelling certain groups as unclean and disease carriers and how touchy Germany is about this.

    I presumed they would have just continued to go down the nudge route of basically making it a pain in the arse / impossible to do enjoyable social things in life without being vaccinated.

    But then I learned today apparently you can't play golf in Germany, without first a doing a test to gain a licence, akin to a driving licence.
    When under stress, nations revert to type.
    We're going to war with France, then ...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    It’s time for the UK to consider vaxports at the very least, and probably mandatory jabs

    Omicron is that bad for the unvaxxed (and the health systems they pressure)

    No and hell no.

    Mandatory vaccination is an outrageous infringement of liberty
This discussion has been closed.