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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 50-1 shot for the GOP WH2016 nomination moves into the l

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 50-1 shot for the GOP WH2016 nomination moves into the lead in New Hampshire

My thinking six months ago was that a big thing that Rand Paul’s likely to have going for him is his father’s extraordinarily enthusiastic and well organised supporter base that at one stage during last summer threatened to make life very difficult for the Romney camp.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    First!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Not sure whether this is good news for OGH - but Tim Stanley agrees:

    Nevertheless, Paul’s trip to Israel to mend fences with Jewish and evangelical conservatives worked wonders. His votes against gun control and the budget proved his Tea Party credentials. And his brilliant filibuster against drone strikes reminds us that he’s not just another RINO. The only danger ahead that I can see is his position on amnesty, which is vague and potentially unpopular with working-class Americans. Besides that, we’re looking at a frontrunner in this crucial primary state.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100213895/rand-paul-tops-a-poll-for-new-hampshire-2016-truly-he-is-the-live-free-or-die-candidate/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774
    edited April 2013
    I'd make it a 50:1 shot Mike. The republican party is full of nuts but the Pauls are the fruit in the chocolate bar.

    By the next election the republicans will be desperate to win and will be looking for a more centrist figure, almost certainly the successful governor of a marginal state who has shown he can attract democrats as well as the nutters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Best of luck with your long shot, Mr. Smithson. Ah, I like the Pirelli tyre racing, but found betting a bit easier when refuelling was around. Then, pre-season testing made it much easier to predict who'd be fast, and it meant that qualifying was out of whack with race pace. Predicting a political result this far out must be pretty tricky, given the nature of the contest.

    Who do you see as his main rivals? Rubio?
  • DavidL said:

    I'd make it a 50:1 shot Mike. The republican party is full of nuts but the Pauls are the fruit in the chocolate bar.

    By the next election the republicans will be desperate to win and will be looking for a more centrist figure, almost certainly the successful governor of a marginal state who has shown he can attract democrats as well as the nutters.

    Seems to me, David, that it all comes down to whether Hillary runs.

    If she does, she wins. If she does, the GOP can pick anybody they like, fruitcase or not, and the only difference will be the size of the defeat. So they might well go with Paul, who incidentally I do not regard as a fruitcase and is definitely NOT in the same wacko league as some of the batshitcrazies they put up last time.

    Whether Hillary runs seems to depend largely if not wholly on her health, and only she knows about that.

    My guess is she runs.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    I'm on Paul too for the nom.

    His demeanour, policies and accent will have the lefties in a terrible froth - what fun !


    Cam just pwned silly moo on radio 5 over council tax rates. Thought she was going to burst into tears.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Looks a good trading bet anyway - Paul fans like internet betting and will trade him to very short odds if he's got a reasonable chance.

    Not sure if today's YG has been posted: CON 32%, LAB 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 12%; APP -30. the lead's pretty stable in the 7-8 range at the moment, hard to get excited over the change from the 9-11 range. Today's Scotland subsample is intriguing though: Lab/SNP/Con 30/28/29. Perhaps that Tory bounce there reflects a genuine response to Osborne's remarks? Or perhaps it's random subsample movement as per usual. Conversely Labour almost matching the Tories in the South and streets ahead in the midlands and north.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/evdm0c03wp/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-250413.pdf
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2013
    OGH a smart move as plenty of room to lay off the Rand bet. (I agree with Tim.... gulp)

    Off topic, OGH what about an updated look at the growing influence of Unite and the Unions on the Labour party? Whatever Ed may want to do, there is a new version of the Militant type of "organisation within an organisation" underway. 81% of the funding and after GE2015 a bigger share of the MPs in Labour. There is already similar union activity in the MEP selections.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2314950/Majority-Labours-MPs-2015-election-links-unions.html
    Candidates "now have to give up their jobs for at least nine weeks before an election – up from four weeks" That will drive out many people in work from becoming candidates!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    The Top echelons of the Tory Party are giving the Addam's Family a run for their money. As Morticia said to Gomez "He looks just like a little entre"

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/04/25/article-2314934-14056383000005DC-643_308x425.jpg
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited April 2013
    Mr. Roger, didn't Miliband go to the same school as Boris?

    Edited extra bit: must say I find the general school obsession bizarre. It was even mentioned when the new Archsocialist was announced.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited April 2013
    @TCpolitical

    "Off topic, OGH what about an updated look at the growing influence of Unite and the Unions on the Labour party?"

    And then perhaps a thread on the part fancy dress is playing in the Tory Party. Perhaps "Have the Hooray Henrys reclaimed the Tory Party"?

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/04/25/article-2314934-14056383000005DC-643_308x425.jpg

    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2008/10/29/Bullingdonhunt.jpg

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/09/23/article-1215635-0663F75C000005DC-589_634x525.jpg

    http://ronapainting.com/images/fullsize/New_Folder/Bbest-light-full-d.jpg
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774

    DavidL said:

    I'd make it a 50:1 shot Mike. The republican party is full of nuts but the Pauls are the fruit in the chocolate bar.

    By the next election the republicans will be desperate to win and will be looking for a more centrist figure, almost certainly the successful governor of a marginal state who has shown he can attract democrats as well as the nutters.

    Seems to me, David, that it all comes down to whether Hillary runs.

    If she does, she wins. If she does, the GOP can pick anybody they like, fruitcase or not, and the only difference will be the size of the defeat. So they might well go with Paul, who incidentally I do not regard as a fruitcase and is definitely NOT in the same wacko league as some of the batshitcrazies they put up last time.

    Whether Hillary runs seems to depend largely if not wholly on her health, and only she knows about that.

    My guess is she runs.

    If Hillary runs will the republicans try to find a woman to oppose her? At the very least they would want a woman on the ticket. Her chances may depend on how Obama does from here. There are some signs that his Obamacare package is looking more expensive and less attractive. This could be a difficult issue for any democrat.

    The republican freak show last time was truly disastrous for the republican party and the leadership will be desperate to avoid a repeat. So we will see a much shorter nomination process with higher organisational barriers like many states voting on the same day to winnow out the nutters early. This is not necessarily bad news for the inheritor of the Paul organisation but I just don't see it resulting in a nomination myself.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    School bigots are hilarious - should wee Boris have run away to join a LEA comp ?


  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: Worrying vote lost for LAB in the only one of the 4 by-elections where Ukip was standing - Maccelesfield Hursdfield. Ukip +14/2%, LAB -9.9%
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Gawd - now tim is whining about being called the wrong type of bigot.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Completely O/T but Gwyneth's dress is the first one that's had such an impact on me since the one Kylie wore in THAT video!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JackW said:

    Ed on 5Live :

    "Overall we were a great government"

    Are those nice gentleman in white coats on hand at the Beeb ??

    I feel it's all getting a bit much for the more left wing Miliband brother.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. W, that sounds like Balls to me.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tim said:

    @Josias

    The Bullingdon Club psycho drama that is now the top of the Tory Party isn't simply related to the chums childhoods.

    The Cheshire Farmers Club psycho drama that is now top of the PB comments table is simply related to present excessive welfare payments.

  • Roger said:

    And then perhaps a thread on the part fancy dress is playing in the Tory Party. Perhaps "Have the Hooray Henrys reclaimed the Tory Party"?

    It takes one to know one, Roger.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    On topic, 50/1 was a fine price for a trading bet but Rand won't win. He does have - assuming he can inherit it - the benefit of his father's organsation and dedicated supporters. However, if that is to be his mantle, he would also assume those who were opposed to Ron Paul at all costs. The constituency simply isn't big enough to win and there are too many opposed to make up the difference on swing voters. Conversely, if he debaggages, he loses the intensity of the support that kept Ron Paul in the race so long.

    As an aside, a Hillary-Paul contest would just re-emphasise the dynastic nature of US presidential politics.

    I agree with those who are looking to a governor for the Republican nomination. Washington insiders have a tendancy to bring too much voting history for the primaries.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited April 2013
    FPT
    Mick_Pork said:

    kle4 said:

    "This is not the same Farage from 2010. Few yet appreciate that fully. "A fair point. I'm not sure when the turning point came exactly, or what constituted it, but for some reason the media portrayal and general perception of Farage definitely shifted at some point. Like Boris being seen as a genuinely significant figure - people joked about it for years, some still joke about it being true now, but it is a fact that he is, and Farage similarly has had a perception transformation.

    If he plays it right and is lucky, whoever follows after him could take UKIP to the next level.

    Funny you should say that. ;).
    I shall say no more but you are not the first to have realised this.
    I would not give myself that much credit to think I would be.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2013
    I thing the moderators should consider banning these obscene threads where OGH nakedly flaunts his wares before all and sundry with the resultant waves of despair that come over mere mortals of PB

    Imagine the horror of John O as he takes the train from Hersham to the City via Dundalk or Peter the Punter rumaging through cast me down frocks and barely functioning suspenders as Mike indulges in another bout of self promotional betting p0rn.

    For shame Smithson, for shame !!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Saw some of Question Time last night and Farage seemed to totally dominate the discussion.

    The entire panel seemed in in thrawl of the guy and allowed him to dictate the terms of the debate. Up until now I've always thought the UKIP thing was one of thoise mid term protests that happen in every parliament, but now I'm not so sure.

    Clear the other parties of terrified of him....
  • RandomRandom Posts: 107

    DavidL said:

    I'd make it a 50:1 shot Mike. The republican party is full of nuts but the Pauls are the fruit in the chocolate bar.

    By the next election the republicans will be desperate to win and will be looking for a more centrist figure, almost certainly the successful governor of a marginal state who has shown he can attract democrats as well as the nutters.

    Seems to me, David, that it all comes down to whether Hillary runs.

    If she does, she wins. If she does, the GOP can pick anybody they like, fruitcase or not, and the only difference will be the size of the defeat.

    With all due respect Peter, but people thought "if she runs, she wins" in the run up to 2008 as well and she didn't even get the Democratic nomination. There's no getting around the fact she's proven to be a very poor campaigner and is pretty left wing as American politics goes. She is thoroughly beatable - by a Democrat as well as a Republican.

    As for David's point about fruits and nuts - what is it about Brits who are desperate to believe the Republicans only nominate crazies? Romney was the most centrist credible figure last time (Huntsman wasn't credible, pace Mike) and McCain the time before. Heck, even Bush jr ran as a moderate before 9/11. The biggest problem with a Paul nomination is that the Republicans like to flirt with candidates who tickle their g-spots but marry the respectable ones.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Looks a good trading bet anyway - Paul fans like internet betting and will trade him to very short odds if he's got a reasonable chance.

    Not sure if today's YG has been posted: CON 32%, LAB 40%, LD 11%, UKIP 12%; APP -30. the lead's pretty stable in the 7-8 range at the moment, hard to get excited over the change from the 9-11 range. Today's Scotland subsample is intriguing though: Lab/SNP/Con 30/28/29. Perhaps that Tory bounce there reflects a genuine response to Osborne's remarks? Or perhaps it's random subsample movement as per usual. Conversely Labour almost matching the Tories in the South and streets ahead in the midlands and north.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/evdm0c03wp/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-250413.pdf

    Nick,

    This looks like one of YouGov's polls where the total result looks right but the regional subsamples contain some rubbish. The pollster must know that it is very very unlikely for the Cons to reach 29% in Scotland when they only attained 17% in 2010.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Random

    2016 - If Hilary runs she wins.

    ARSE (BUTT) - Worldwide and PB Supreme US Election Analyst - 2008-2012.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I agree with tim, and I suspect it will shorten further than 12/1 given the fervour of the Paulistas.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    @ Roger

    well I know what you mean about dressing up etc. and I won't bore you by posting Balls in his Nazi days, but the weird thing is you couldn't really see EdM being a fancy dress kind of person, it's that kind of "can't do normal" air he has about him.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Random said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd make it a 50:1 shot Mike. The republican party is full of nuts but the Pauls are the fruit in the chocolate bar.

    By the next election the republicans will be desperate to win and will be looking for a more centrist figure, almost certainly the successful governor of a marginal state who has shown he can attract democrats as well as the nutters.

    Seems to me, David, that it all comes down to whether Hillary runs.

    If she does, she wins. If she does, the GOP can pick anybody they like, fruitcase or not, and the only difference will be the size of the defeat.

    With all due respect Peter, but people thought "if she runs, she wins" in the run up to 2008 as well and she didn't even get the Democratic nomination. There's no getting around the fact she's proven to be a very poor campaigner and is pretty left wing as American politics goes. She is thoroughly beatable - by a Democrat as well as a Republican.

    As for David's point about fruits and nuts - what is it about Brits who are desperate to believe the Republicans only nominate crazies? Romney was the most centrist credible figure last time (Huntsman wasn't credible, pace Mike) and McCain the time before. Heck, even Bush jr ran as a moderate before 9/11. The biggest problem with a Paul nomination is that the Republicans like to flirt with candidates who tickle their g-spots but marry the respectable ones.
    I disagree that Hillary was a poor performer in 2008. She came up against a campaigning phenomenon in pre-presidency Obama and would have defeated any other Democrat with east. The fact that she took Obama to the convention, and particularly the resiliance of her post-Super Tuesday campaign should be taken seriously. Would she have defeated McCain? i can't see any reason why not.

    That said, she is eight years older and you're right that someone may come out of left(ish)-field, as Obama did. It seems improbable that there'll be a continuity Administration candidate but there could well be someone from a governorship or the Senate. Democrats are far more prone to picking 'new' candidates than the GOP is.

    On which note, who is the GOP establishment candidate next time? The favourite from some way out nearly always wins and is nearly always an establishment choice, however the position seems somewhat vacant at the moment.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    GIN1138 said:

    Saw some of Question Time last night and Farage seemed to totally dominate the discussion.

    The entire panel seemed in in thrawl of the guy and allowed him to dictate the terms of the debate. Up until now I've always thought the UKIP thing was one of thoise mid term protests that happen in every parliament, but now I'm not so sure.

    Clear the other parties of terrified of him....

    Well Farage has some great advantages:

    1) He has nothing to fear, and nothing he can lose, both externally and internally.

    2) He speaks his mind, and what he believes. Not (as all the other main parties do), what they think people want to hear. (or even more accurately, what they think people want to hear).

    I think a lot of modern day politicans are afraid. Of being seen to make an error, or offend someone, or to make a 'gaffe'. Both Farage, and Boris don't have that fear, and it makes them seem much more genuine people.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @JackW As the Spartans said to Philip II: "If".
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    Did you enjoy public school girl Luciana Berger doing mockney on QT last night?



  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited April 2013
    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    GIN1138 said:

    Saw some of Question Time last night and Farage seemed to totally dominate the discussion.

    The entire panel seemed in in thrawl of the guy and allowed him to dictate the terms of the debate. Up until now I've always thought the UKIP thing was one of thoise mid term protests that happen in every parliament, but now I'm not so sure.

    Clear the other parties of terrified of him....

    You must have watched a different episode of QT than I did.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Also on R Paul at 35-1 to win £350..

    Word of caution - New Hampshire is definitely better for a Ron/Rand Paul type candidate than alot of other states.
  • RandomRandom Posts: 107


    I disagree that Hillary was a poor performer in 2008. She came up against a campaigning phenomenon in pre-presidency Obama and would have defeated any other Democrat with east. The fact that she took Obama to the convention, and particularly the resiliance of her post-Super Tuesday campaign should be taken seriously. Would she have defeated McCain? i can't see any reason why not.

    That said, she is eight years older and you're right that someone may come out of left(ish)-field, as Obama did. It seems improbable that there'll be a continuity Administration candidate but there could well be someone from a governorship or the Senate. Democrats are far more prone to picking 'new' candidates than the GOP is.

    On which note, who is the GOP establishment candidate next time? The favourite from some way out nearly always wins and is nearly always an establishment choice, however the position seems somewhat vacant at the moment.

    Hillary was a disastrous campaigner in 2008 - taking Obama to the convention is no great achievement when it was supposed to be a Hillary coronation, and starting out with the best funded campaign and finishing with your campaign basically bankrupt also shows very poor management skills. I'm not sure she could have beaten McCain either - if nothing else, McCain would have had a different VP pick - I'm convinced he picked a woman because the Dems picked Obama, and if they'd have gone for Hillary he'd have picked a minority candidate (Jindal?) instead. As for the Rep next time, yes. FWIW I think Rubio is trying to position himself as the "establishment" candidate with losing his tea party credentials. If he can pull it off he'll be the one to beat.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265

    OGH a smart move as plenty of room to lay off the Rand bet. (I agree with Tim.... gulp)

    Off topic, OGH what about an updated look at the growing influence of Unite and the Unions on the Labour party? Whatever Ed may want to do, there is a new version of the Militant type of "organisation within an organisation" underway. 81% of the funding and after GE2015 a bigger share of the MPs in Labour. There is already similar union activity in the MEP selections.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2314950/Majority-Labours-MPs-2015-election-links-unions.html
    Candidates "now have to give up their jobs for at least nine weeks before an election – up from four weeks" That will drive out many people in work from becoming candidates!

    The Mail piece is a bit silly. Labour Party members (not just MPs) have always been expected to join the most appropriate union ever since the party was founded - it's intrinsic to the concept of "labour movement". I'd think that union membership among Labour MPs is not the 50% that they "reveal" but close to 100%. However, as Len McCluskey and others have often irritably observed, membership and sponsorship doesn't mean the MPs do what they're asked by the union. If MPs don't do as unions ask, there is in practice never any comeback.

    Generally speaking, strong union support will deliver a position on the shortlist for selection because affiliated unions can make nominations and candidates with lots of nominations tend to be shortlisted. But as the selection is OMOV, it's then up to members. Some short-listed union activists will be chosen if members think they're the best candidates. There's nothing odd, or new, about that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Meanwhile the transformation of the British Conservative party into a vehicle for Bullingdon Boys to play games continues apace.

    Another day, another Osborne Master Strategy

    The promotion of the old Etonian (‘Johnson Minimus’ in the posh school’s parlance), an MP for only three years, was the idea of Chancellor George Osborne.
    Apart from harnessing Jo’s strategic skills in a bid to make the Tories more popular, the move is seen as a mischievous ruse to rein in Boris, who makes no secret of the fact he wants to succeed Cameron as Tory leader.
    The thinking is that if his brother is part of Team Cameron, Boris won’t want to be seen as a critic.
    This is a classic piece of Osborne devilry. As a colleague says: ‘He hopes that although Jo’s presence in Downing Street will wind up Boris, it will make it more difficult for him to criticise the Government.’


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2314934/BoJo-JoJo-How-Boris-younger-brother-Jo-Johnson-Minimus-sibling-rivalry-eclipse-Milibands.html#ixzz2RY2F7eUT

    So nothing to do with the fact that Joe Johnson is smarter and more dependable than his brother? Frankly I suspect that the Boris (and Stanley) connections held him back rather than anything else.

    The article you linked to is a quick and easy 1000 words that a bored journalist rattled off rather than anything more substantial. Process discussions are irrelevant to normal voters.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    tim said:

    @Slackbladder.

    Boris and Farage are similar in the respect that people don't take either of them entirely seriously so different rules apply.

    I fully agree on that, but I don't see that UKIP are any less credible at the moment than say the Lib Dems are/were.

    Both are never going to get in power (as a single party). It doesn't matter what they're policies are, rather than what they stand for.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,526
    Roger said:

    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.

    As so often, Roger, you miss the point as well. If you look at that privilege in one party, you should look at it in the other parties as well. And you do not.

    Your position on privilege is as stupid as your one on women in the workplace.
  • RandomRandom Posts: 107
    Roger said:

    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.

    Hang on, I thought it was Labour who's last leadership contest was between two charisma free brothers arguing over who had inheritance rights and who's inheritance from their father was sufficiently large it was worth rigging it to minimise the amount of inheritance tax they paid? am I wrong?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @NickPalmer Please check your inbox
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    Not sure if today's YG has been posted: ... the lead's pretty stable in the 7-8 range at the moment, hard to get excited over the change from the 9-11 range.

    I can see why a Labour supporter wouldn't be excited by a pretty clear +2 shift against them in the polls.

    If - and it is a big if - the Tories can avoid shooting themselves in the feet, the economy continues to recover then I would be surprised to see the lead narrow further.

    Let's say it falls to 5 points post summer. At what point will Labour MPs and fellow travellers begin to get twitchy?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Roger needs to 'check his privilege'.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Random said:

    Roger said:

    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.

    Hang on, I thought it was Labour who's last leadership contest was between two charisma free brothers arguing over who had inheritance rights and who's inheritance from their father was sufficiently large it was worth rigging it to minimise the amount of inheritance tax they paid? am I wrong?
    Yes, any serious student of narrow political elites needs to look at Labour. No other party has yet managed to get the deputy leader's husband elected on an All Women Shortlist.

    How many second generation apparatchiks have been lined up for safe seats?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,676
    tim said:

    @Financier

    This looks like one of YouGov's polls where the total result looks right but the regional subsamples contain some rubbish. The pollster must know that it is very very unlikely for the Cons to reach 29% in Scotland

    You don't understand that subsamples aren't weighted do you?

    Yougov are always crap in Scotland due to their weighting or lack of
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Another meme proven unambiguously, totally and inevitably wrong...

    @RobbieGibb: David Cameron has missed 3.2% of PMQs, compared to 5% for Tony Blair and 11.8% for Gordon Brown (4/4) #bbcdp
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,774
    edited April 2013
    Random said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd make it a 50:1 shot Mike. The republican party is full of nuts but the Pauls are the fruit in the chocolate bar.

    By the next election the republicans will be desperate to win and will be looking for a more centrist figure, almost certainly the successful governor of a marginal state who has shown he can attract democrats as well as the nutters.

    Seems to me, David, that it all comes down to whether Hillary runs.

    If she does, she wins. If she does, the GOP can pick anybody they like, fruitcase or not, and the only difference will be the size of the defeat.

    With all due respect Peter, but people thought "if she runs, she wins" in the run up to 2008 as well and she didn't even get the Democratic nomination. There's no getting around the fact she's proven to be a very poor campaigner and is pretty left wing as American politics goes. She is thoroughly beatable - by a Democrat as well as a Republican.

    As for David's point about fruits and nuts - what is it about Brits who are desperate to believe the Republicans only nominate crazies? Romney was the most centrist credible figure last time (Huntsman wasn't credible, pace Mike) and McCain the time before. Heck, even Bush jr ran as a moderate before 9/11. The biggest problem with a Paul nomination is that the Republicans like to flirt with candidates who tickle their g-spots but marry the respectable ones.
    Random I agree that Romney was the most centrist and credible candidate available to the Republicans the last time. That that was the case was really a part of the problem. He had to share the stage with some genuine fruitcakes and the narrow band of the electorate that forms the base for Republican nominations meant he had to do and say a lot of things that hurt him against Obama.

    Debating with Donald Trump, Ron Paul and ,,,oh what was his name... education? really does not help you be a winner. Susana Martinez is the sort of candidate (tbh I don't know much about her abilities) the republicans should be looking at. Female, from a minority and able to win in a state that is trending democratic. That way they could appeal to several demographics that they lost very heavily the last time.

    As for Hillary in 08 I think Obama was a phenomenal campaigner, far,far better than he has been a President and only someone of Hillary's strengths could have made it close. Since then she has been a very respected Secretary of State where she won a lot of kudos from republicans and shed any vestiges of her left wing past. If her health holds up she will require another remarkable candidate to deny her.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @TimGattITV: Not just the govt who have people from accountancy firms on secondment: Ed Balls has an assistant/analyst from PWC http://bit.ly/180xdfO
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    glassfet said:

    ' No other party has yet managed to get the deputy leader's husband elected on an All Women Shortlist.

    It was an open shortlist (obviously) and it was always announced as so. FWIW it was Burnley who recommeded as AWS and then changed to Open.

    But you can still pretend the opposite, if it is a sort of therapy and makes you feel better.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Roger said:

    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.

    Roger, that's just so funny. Do you think of Harriet Harman as working class ?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Random said:


    I disagree that Hillary was a poor performer in 2008. She came up against a campaigning phenomenon in pre-presidency Obama and would have defeated any other Democrat with east. The fact that she took Obama to the convention, and particularly the resiliance of her post-Super Tuesday campaign should be taken seriously. Would she have defeated McCain? i can't see any reason why not.

    That said, she is eight years older and you're right that someone may come out of left(ish)-field, as Obama did. It seems improbable that there'll be a continuity Administration candidate but there could well be someone from a governorship or the Senate. Democrats are far more prone to picking 'new' candidates than the GOP is.

    On which note, who is the GOP establishment candidate next time? The favourite from some way out nearly always wins and is nearly always an establishment choice, however the position seems somewhat vacant at the moment.

    Hillary was a disastrous campaigner in 2008 - taking Obama to the convention is no great achievement when it was supposed to be a Hillary coronation, and starting out with the best funded campaign and finishing with your campaign basically bankrupt also shows very poor management skills. I'm not sure she could have beaten McCain either - if nothing else, McCain would have had a different VP pick - I'm convinced he picked a woman because the Dems picked Obama, and if they'd have gone for Hillary he'd have picked a minority candidate (Jindal?) instead. As for the Rep next time, yes. FWIW I think Rubio is trying to position himself as the "establishment" candidate with losing his tea party credentials. If he can pull it off he'll be the one to beat.
    What do we mean by a "campaigner"? In the sense I understand it: leading rallies and getting voters fired up, I thought she did a very good job. It was the campaign management that was disastrous, and most of that can largely be put on Mark Penn.

    There's a big debate in US politics on whether the candidate should actually manage the campaign. There's a pretty strong argument that the candidate has enough on their plate doing candidate type things and you need a separate manager to full-time oversee the campaign apparatus.

  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220

    But you can still pretend the opposite, if it is a sort of therapy and makes you feel better.

    What makes me feel better is the lengths Labour go to, to pretend it didn't happen. The gift that keeps on giving
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.

    In my experience that absolutely isn't the case.

    The Tories are as dominated by professional politicians as the Labour Party is. It's not so much the "last bastion" of the (outgoing) elite as one of the strongholds of the next elite.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Roger said:

    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.

    Roger, that's just so funny. Do you think of Harriet Harman as working class ?
    Or Tony Blair, Lord Mandelson, Polly Toynbee; Ed Balls, Chuka, Berger, Laurie Penny etc etc.

    I also note no attacks on our Old Etonian Archbishop of Canterbury as a red faced chinless fop.

    The petty spitefulness of the attacks on Cameron and co just shows how void of real ideas the Labour party is.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited April 2013
    Random said:

    DavidL said:

    I'd make it a 50:1 shot Mike. The republican party is full of nuts but the Pauls are the fruit in the chocolate bar.

    By the next election the republicans will be desperate to win and will be looking for a more centrist figure, almost certainly the successful governor of a marginal state who has shown he can attract democrats as well as the nutters.

    Seems to me, David, that it all comes down to whether Hillary runs.

    If she does, she wins. If she does, the GOP can pick anybody they like, fruitcase or not, and the only difference will be the size of the defeat.

    With all due respect Peter, but people thought "if she runs, she wins" in the run up to 2008 as well and she didn't even get the Democratic nomination. There's no getting around the fact she's proven to be a very poor campaigner and is pretty left wing as American politics goes. She is thoroughly beatable - by a Democrat as well as a Republican.
    Firstly, she's in a far, far stronger position now than she was last time, where she was mainly undone by her Iraq war vote, which she refused to apologise for. As for how left wing she is, her views are extremely similar to Barack Obama, who has won two sizable victories. More importantly, the perception of her is centrist, which is why she does very well in parts of the south. If she loses the Democratic primary, it will be to someone to her left.
    As for David's point about fruits and nuts - what is it about Brits who are desperate to believe the Republicans only nominate crazies? Romney was the most centrist credible figure last time (Huntsman wasn't credible, pace Mike) and McCain the time before. Heck, even Bush jr ran as a moderate before 9/11. The biggest problem with a Paul nomination is that the Republicans like to flirt with candidates who tickle their g-spots but marry the respectable ones.
    The Republican party has swung much more right wing than it was in 2000. "The most centrist credible figure" winning last time is a bit of a tautology. The only reason Huntsman wasn't credible is because he was moderate. Romney's history was centrist, but he had adopted down the line right-wing positions on every issue and he still struggled to fend off jokes and loons like Gingrich, Cain, Santorum and Perry.
    On which note, who is the GOP establishment candidate next time? The favourite from some way out nearly always wins and is nearly always an establishment choice, however the position seems somewhat vacant at the moment.
    Marco Rubio, with Jeb Bush in second.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    tim said:

    I don't think that pointing out that you are an idiot is going to great lengths

    Heady praise from Farmer Tim. Tell us all again abut the Tears of Osborne. It's a classic.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    glassfet said:

    But you can still pretend the opposite, if it is a sort of therapy and makes you feel better.

    What makes me feel better is the lengths Labour go to, to pretend it didn't happen. The gift that keeps on giving
    I was just offering my services to correct some ignorant comments. Obviously, trusting they would be the result of involuntary ignorance rather than conscious spin.

    I let you pick the category you fall in. I am sure you are in good faith and it is the former. Probably diverted by devious media and mischievous individuals.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Charles

    Process discussions are irrelevant to normal voters.

    I doubt the fact that the top of the Tory party is drawn from a tiny sliver of society is irrelevant.
    Particularly when it's obvious that many of them owe their position to a place in society that happens to be Cameron's rarified perch rather than any proven ability.

    Voters care abour competant government and good decision making. If things go well then they won't care about background.

    It's a mistake for the Labour party to major on this point (as well as being hypocritical). It makes them look class obsessed and, IMHO, turns off swing voters.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Roger said:

    @TCpolitical

    "Off topic, OGH what about an updated look at the growing influence of Unite and the Unions on the Labour party?"

    And then perhaps a thread on the part fancy dress is playing in the Tory Party. Perhaps "Have the Hooray Henrys reclaimed the Tory Party"?

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/04/25/article-2314934-14056383000005DC-643_308x425.jpg

    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2008/10/29/Bullingdonhunt.jpg

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/09/23/article-1215635-0663F75C000005DC-589_634x525.jpg

    http://ronapainting.com/images/fullsize/New_Folder/Bbest-light-full-d.jpg

    "And then perhaps a thread on the part fancy dress is playing in the Tory Party."

    Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4567073/Shadow-chancellor-Ed-Balls-No-shame-over-my-Nazi-uniform.html

    Which is why your sort of arguments are so puerile. People do silly things as kids and teenagers; the important thing is that no long-term harm is caused, and they learn lessons. It's part of growing up.

    Let he who is without sin...
    What's wrong with doing silly things as adults? The Second World War was more than 65 years ago now. I think it's perfectly reasonable to have a bad taste joke about it.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Charles said:

    It's not so much the "last bastion" of the (outgoing) elite as one of the strongholds of the next elite.

    Like these guys?
    The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Roger said:

    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.

    Roger, that's just so funny. Do you think of Harriet Harman as working class ?
    Or Tony Blair, Lord Mandelson, Polly Toynbee; Ed Balls, Chuka, Berger, Laurie Penny etc etc.

    I also note no attacks on our Old Etonian Archbishop of Canterbury as a red faced chinless fop.

    The petty spitefulness of the attacks on Cameron and co just shows how void of real ideas the Labour party is.
    Ed's a policy free zone , he has even less depth than Cameron - and that takes some doing.
  • Roger said:

    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.

    It is the Left in British politics which has inflicted the most damage on Meritocracy with the replacement of Grammar schools by (often bog-standard) Comprehensives, the dumbing down of education and exam results, and the desire to drive quotas and equal opportunities into every crevice of British society.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    It's also worth bearing in mind that New Hampshire was the target of something called the "Free State Project", where libertarian types were supposed to migrate to the state and move it in a libertarian direction. Thus there will be a lot of people favourable to Rand Paul.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Roger said:

    @Jessop. 'Be careful of what you ask for: to prevent bias you would have to show a certain picture of Ed Balls:"

    As so often Jessop the point goes flying over your head. This isn't about fancy dress but privilege and the reactionary nature of the Tory Party one of the last bastions of a privileged elite. A time warp where meritocracy is a dirty word and where rich parents are revered.

    It is the Left in British politics which has inflicted the most damage on Meritocracy with the replacement of Grammar schools by (often bog-standard) Comprehensives, the dumbing down of education and exam results, and the desire to drive quotas and equal opportunities into every crevice of British society.
    It's the lack of fairness which gets me, I've never been offered the chance to represent the UK in the 100 metres or play centre forward for Man. United.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @foxinsoxuk

    ' Do you think of Harriet Harman as working class ?'

    I don't think Harman's auntie the Countess of Longford would agree.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    @Charles

    Voters care abour competant government and good decision making

    Of course, and people like Letwin and Osborne aren't competent, it's clear to everyone why they are in place.
    The fact that Osborne is playing at Master Strategist again by appointing Bullingdon Boys to "wind up" another Bullingdon Boy just makes it more obvious.

    And you'll see in the long run that this is a much bigger issue on the Tory backbenches and in the Tory supporting press than it is on the left.

    well I see your hopes but if anything he's let a Trojan horse into No 10, who do you keep loyalty to; some bloke who won't be there in 5 years or your family who'll be with you all your life ? Family wins every time. Unless your name's Miliband .
  • @Random

    Not sure which Brits you are referring to but this particular Brit is very aware that the GOP almost invariably nominates the safe choice in the end,Barry Goldwater being the obvious exception.

    In fact many of us Brits here on PB made a packet by 'laying the loony' throughout the last GOP nomination contest. Maybe you weren't around to enjoy the beanfeast.

    Others have answered your points regarding Hillary. I agree with you about Rubio though. He's the GOP's best shot, but I would be astonished if he beat her.

    If the Democrats have to run with somebody else, it could get interesting. Rubio/Cuomo or Rubio/Gillibrand would be close, imo.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    @LewisDuckworth

    the desire to drive quotas and equal opportunities into every crevice of British society.

    In which areas do you oppose equality of opportunity?

    Birmingham Erdington.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Charles

    Voters care abour competant government and good decision making

    Of course, and people like Letwin and Osborne aren't competent, it's clear to everyone why they are in place.
    The fact that Osborne is playing at Master Strategist again by appointing Bullingdon Boys to "wind up" another Bullingdon Boy just makes it more obvious.

    And you'll see in the long run that this is a much bigger issue on the Tory backbenches and in the Tory supporting press than it is on the left.

    The fact! The "fact"!

    You said 'this is the case, because Andrew Pierce says it is'.

    I refuted your view, with a reasoned argument (based on the fact that I know the individuals involved personally).

    You haven't responded to my comment

    But your view is now a "fact".

    I bow before your superior wisdom.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    @tim. I appreciate you have had an absolutely terrible week, what with the deficit, the return to growth, and Labour's declining poll lead (OK, the last one is for fun), so we won't begrudge you a few more hours with your all time number one obsession. I know George feels the same: he may shed a few tears to make your day. Of laughter.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Alanbrooke. "Roger, that's just so funny. Do you think of Harriet Harman as working class ?"

    No but she didn't join the party of the fancy dressers. The time warp party as seen in those photos.

    If she starts a Roedean section in the Labour Party then it'll be time to reappraise.
  • JackW said:

    @Random

    2016 - If Hilary runs she wins.

    ARSE (BUTT) - Worldwide and PB Supreme US Election Analyst - 2008-2012.

    I see great arses think alike, young Jack.

    Why aren't you at Perth?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    tim said:

    @Charles

    Voters care abour competant government and good decision making

    Of course, and people like Letwin and Osborne aren't competent, it's clear to everyone why they are in place.
    The fact that Osborne is playing at Master Strategist again by appointing Bullingdon Boys to "wind up" another Bullingdon Boy just makes it more obvious.

    And you'll see in the long run that this is a much bigger issue on the Tory backbenches and in the Tory supporting press than it is on the left.

    well I see your hopes but if anything he's let a Trojan horse into No 10, who do you keep loyalty to; some bloke who won't be there in 5 years or your family who'll be with you all your life ? Family wins every time. Unless your name's Miliband .
    It's perfectly possible to be loyal to your family without undermining your boss.

    The company I work for competes with my family business. That potentially creates conflicts, but so long as they are managed appropriately that isn't a problem for anyone.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    @Akanbrooke

    if anything he's let a Trojan horse into No 10

    You don't think that the next leader of the Tory Party will be another Bullingdon chum for one minute do you?

    No I don't. It will be a grammar or comp. chap or chapess who unfortunately went to Oxford or Cambridge. The school isn't the problem it's the University.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    @Random

    Not sure which Brits you are referring to but this particular Brit is very aware that the GOP almost invariably nominates the safe choice in the end,Barry Goldwater being the obvious exception.

    In fact many of us Brits here on PB made a packet by 'laying the loony' throughout the last GOP nomination contest. Maybe you weren't around to enjoy the beanfeast.

    Others have answered your points regarding Hillary. I agree with you about Rubio though. He's the GOP's best shot, but I would be astonished if he beat her.

    If the Democrats have to run with somebody else, it could get interesting. Rubio/Cuomo or Rubio/Gillibrand would be close, imo.

    Cuomo could easily be painted as a New York liberal. Gillibrand is a blue dog, which could make winning the primary difficult, and is a trial lawyer daughter of a lobbyist, which would be good fuel for Republicans. If Clinton steps aside, which I don't think she will, then I think Mark Warner or Martin O'Malley would be very viable choices.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited April 2013
    @Foxinsox

    Annual school fees for Harman, Blair, Darling, Toynbee, Balls, Chuka, Berger, Penny et al would be more than likely to be beyond the reach of anyone on or close to the average UK wage.

    Amnesia about the background of Labour's leading figures: Oxford, fee paying schooling, or education at a selective school is common place, conveniently hidden whilst they hone their attacks on The Tories; likewise plenty of journalists and commentators prefer to remain reticent about their circumstances.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Charles said:

    tim said:

    @Charles

    Voters care abour competant government and good decision making

    Of course, and people like Letwin and Osborne aren't competent, it's clear to everyone why they are in place.
    The fact that Osborne is playing at Master Strategist again by appointing Bullingdon Boys to "wind up" another Bullingdon Boy just makes it more obvious.

    And you'll see in the long run that this is a much bigger issue on the Tory backbenches and in the Tory supporting press than it is on the left.

    well I see your hopes but if anything he's let a Trojan horse into No 10, who do you keep loyalty to; some bloke who won't be there in 5 years or your family who'll be with you all your life ? Family wins every time. Unless your name's Miliband .
    It's perfectly possible to be loyal to your family without undermining your boss.

    The company I work for competes with my family business. That potentially creates conflicts, but so long as they are managed appropriately that isn't a problem for anyone.
    Of course Charles and people do it every day, however in the long term you can choose to change employer, you get given your family.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    malcolmg said:

    tim said:

    @Financier

    This looks like one of YouGov's polls where the total result looks right but the regional subsamples contain some rubbish. The pollster must know that it is very very unlikely for the Cons to reach 29% in Scotland

    You don't understand that subsamples aren't weighted do you?

    Yougov are always crap in Scotland due to their weighting or lack of
    The only time (some of) the Nats take the YouGov Scottish sub sample seriously is when it shows a high SNP number...
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'In which areas do you oppose equality of opportunity?'

    A Labour MP that preaches equality and then sends their son to a selective grammar school 10 miles from their inner London constituency..
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Peter - I agree with you that Rubio is a talent and could run a lot of Democrats close.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    john_zims said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    ' Do you think of Harriet Harman as working class ?'

    I don't think Harman's auntie the Countess of Longford would agree.

    I don't think that by any stretch of the imagination could Attlee be described as "working class"! Middle Class, maybe. Haileybury and Oxford, although he did play football, apparently, for (now) semi-professional Fleet FC.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    john_zims

    Corbyn and his wife split over where to educate one of their sons. His wife favoured QE Barnet for one of their sons rather than risk one of Islington's comps.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/1999/may/13/uk.politicalnews2

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    @tim - What Rubio actually said (the quote is in the article you linked to) was:

    We need to be open to changes that provide more security. I don’t like profiling anybody or singling or generally leading, on the other hand student visas are something this country does because it’s in our national interest but you don’t have a right to a student visa. I’m not prepared to take a firm position on restriction. I want to learn about what might have worked to prevent past attacks.

    It's a bit waffly, but hardly loony.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    dr_spyn said:

    @Foxinsox

    Annual school fees for Harman, Blair, Darling, Toynbee, Balls, Chuka, Berger, Penny et al would be more than likely to be beyond the reach of anyone on or close to the average UK wage.

    Amnesia about the background of Labour's leading figures: Oxford, fee paying schooling, or education at a selective school is common place, conveniently hidden whilst they hone their attacks on The Tories; likewise plenty of journalists and commentators prefer to remain reticent about their circumstances.

    dr_spyn said:

    @Foxinsox

    Annual school fees for Harman, Blair, Darling, Toynbee, Balls, Chuka, Berger, Penny et al would be more than likely to be beyond the reach of anyone on or close to the average UK wage.

    Amnesia about the background of Labour's leading figures: Oxford, fee paying schooling, or education at a selective school is common place, conveniently hidden whilst they hone their attacks on The Tories; likewise plenty of journalists and commentators prefer to remain reticent about their circumstances.

    Indeed; the Guardian and BBC are bastions of private schooling. Hypocracy is up to their necks when they criticise professions like mine as exclusive.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @Tim

    Nonsense and you know it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    @Roger

    so you are saying that Labour Party toffs can (be allowed to) put aside their upbringing in order to serve their country but that Cons Party toffs cannot?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    @Charles

    even middle of the road right wing nutters such as Moi gasp that the Cons can appoint an OE to such a high-profile job.

    It's just bad politics and doesn't help the narrative.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    and @tim

    wrt the "as a father" - as you are well aware, he is doing what you do, building a narrative. It will percolate through to the public consciousness until without thinking, people will say to themselves "oh that nice Mr Cameron; he's a father you know".

    No point pointing it out to us the whole time on here. We get it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,526
    TOPPING said:

    @Roger

    so you are saying that Labour Party toffs can (be allowed to) put aside their upbringing in order to serve their country but that Cons Party toffs cannot?

    I'm not sure Roger's position is in any way logical or consistent.

    In my mind the problem is nothing to do with which school they were sent to, which people can hardly help, but in the way politics is getting increasing numbers of people with the same university and work-life backgrounds.

    Our very own Nick Palmer is a welcome exception to this.

    There is a place for career politicians. I'm not sure that place is in politics, though.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
    Radio 5 live this morning - was a lovely Beeb moment with the PM.

    Starts around 1hr 49 mins in. Rachel Burden (quite) tries to claim that Con councils charge more tax , PM rightly suggests that you should compare band D rates.

    Lovely spat at 1hr 51m where the the interview loses the argument, gets patronised by the PM and retreats to telling the PM that experts will differ :D

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01s1jbl

    rEd on later at 2hrs 35 ish - very angry and shouty - not pleasant.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    I see tim was quoting the Mail earlier on Jo Johnson's appointment.....funny, I had him more of a Guardian reader myself:

    "It takes a certain chutzpah for a relatively new MP to stand their ground on a public platform with Peter Mandelson and to make the former business secretary look slightly out of touch.

    But that is exactly what Jo Johnson did when he dismissed an attempt by Mandelson to goad him into criticising David Cameron's plans to hold a referendum on EU membership."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/25/jo-johnson-left-field-choice

    Or possibly the Independent:

    "Some people say that the really smart member of the Johnson family is the quiet one, Jo Johnson, MP for Orpington – and we are about to find out a lot more about him. Jo has just been promoted to perform for David Cameron the role that David Miliband used to fulfil for Tony Blair, running the Downing Street Policy Unit. It is expected that his formidable intelligence will be applied to the task of helping to put together a manifesto on which to fight the 2015 election."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/its-bojo-vs-jojo--so-will-johnson-jr-come-out-in-front-of-his-brother-boris-8588916.html

    But no....the Mail.....
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    dr_spin

    Usual lefties talk the talk but not the walk,hilarious though the excuses they come up with.

    Tim's been given a model answer by party HQ on how you try to explain Harman's hypocrisy,still everyone knows a fake.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
    Cameron has forgotten the golden rule of Liverpool - never ever criticise anything about Liverpool ever or an angry horde will rain down on your head.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @Tim

    More Balls on one of your favourite themes of the day.

    If Labour's education policies are so wonderful why was it that social mobility was seen as a problem by Blair's government, can you recall why Milburn was asked to look at it?
This discussion has been closed.