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Could Reform leader Tice benefit from BoJo’s travails? – politicalbetting.com

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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,909

    dixiedean said:

    Labour win in Rutland. Gain from Indy. First Lab on Council.

    Rutland goes Labour?

    It's over for Johnson.

    Isn’t that where Foxy lives? Perhaps he is no longer the only non-Tory in the village…
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    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Paul Sculley, whoever he is, has been sent out by Tories to defend this shit on QT.

    Poor sod.

    Doesn't Paterson's resignation take a lot of the heat out of this situation.
    Some, but nowhere near as much as it would have if the Party had accepted the report.

    Soon attention moves to who else had their snout in the public trough for their own finances. How big is the iceberg of Tory sleaze?
    That's the other thing the last 48 hours has done.

    For two years, BoJo has done a remarkable job of holding the line that misbehaviour doesn't get you sacked. It's been an important principle for him. But we now have a sleaze line; anyone who behaves as badly as Paterson will find their position becomes untenable.

    Up to now, BoJo's government has had a Teflon coating. But anyone who has bought cheap cookware knows, once a scratch appears in the Teflon layer tends to grow...
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    dixiedean said:

    Labour win in Rutland. Gain from Indy. First Lab on Council.
    Lab 62.6%
    Con 37.4%

    Broken sleazy Tories on the slide.
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    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...




    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,321



    I think mine is a Marxist based on the odd chat we have had.

    Still, he always makes sure my second-hand vinyl deliveries are well handled and not thrown over the fence like some other delivery companies I could mention.

    I had a Sainsbury delivery guy who was a big Trump fan. Wasn't clear why he wanted to tell me all about it, but I was a captive audience as he waited for me to unload the ready meal cargo, and it didn't seem worth arguing.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    edited November 2021

    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...


    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    Um, Chief Whip, wasn't the official position this was about a principle of natural justice, not circling the wagons to protect a colleague?
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    Interesting, perhaps, or maybe not… but not a single covidian question on QT tonight.

    Moving on.

    Despite JVT.

    Despite the cack handed attempt to feck xmas by failing to deliver boosters.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    kle4 said:

    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...


    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    Um, Chief Whip, wasn't the official position this was about a principle of natural justice, not circling the wagons to protect a colleague?
    That was the official position ten mins ago.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645



    I think mine is a Marxist based on the odd chat we have had.

    Still, he always makes sure my second-hand vinyl deliveries are well handled and not thrown over the fence like some other delivery companies I could mention.

    I had a Sainsbury delivery guy who was a big Trump fan. Wasn't clear why he wanted to tell me all about it, but I was a captive audience as he waited for me to unload the ready meal cargo, and it didn't seem worth arguing.
    Clearly you must have given off a very Trumpy vibe. You may want to work on that before your next election.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,909
    S

    L

    E

    A

    Z

    E

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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,291
    edited November 2021

    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...




    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    I feel the Chief Whip has been unduly maligned in all of this. Surely his job was to win the vote, which he did comfortably enough given the circumstances. Not his fault Boris blundered about afterwards u-turning.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,909



    I think mine is a Marxist based on the odd chat we have had.

    Still, he always makes sure my second-hand vinyl deliveries are well handled and not thrown over the fence like some other delivery companies I could mention.

    I had a Sainsbury delivery guy who was a big Trump fan. Wasn't clear why he wanted to tell me all about it, but I was a captive audience as he waited for me to unload the ready meal cargo, and it didn't seem worth arguing.
    Was probably very quick with the ready meals, unless you were stocking up for an expected lockdown?

    Imagine if you had to handle pork shoulders, bottles of oil and packs of rice!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645

    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...




    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    I feel the Chief Whip has been unduly maligned in all of this. Surely his job is to win the vote, which he did comfortably enough given the circumstances. Not his fault Boris blundered about afterwards u-turning.
    No, but he's not doing himself any favours by giving the game away so blatantly now.
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    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...


    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    Um, Chief Whip, wasn't the official position this was about a principle of natural justice, not circling the wagons to protect a colleague?
    That was the official position ten mins ago.
    SI unit: A NanoBoris - a tiny, vanishing even, unit of time between u-turns in modern government.
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    kle4 said:



    I think mine is a Marxist based on the odd chat we have had.

    Still, he always makes sure my second-hand vinyl deliveries are well handled and not thrown over the fence like some other delivery companies I could mention.

    I had a Sainsbury delivery guy who was a big Trump fan. Wasn't clear why he wanted to tell me all about it, but I was a captive audience as he waited for me to unload the ready meal cargo, and it didn't seem worth arguing.
    Clearly you must have given off a very Trumpy vibe. You may want to work on that before your next election.
    The delivery was all burgers and coke?
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    Interesting, perhaps, or maybe not… but not a single covidian question on QT tonight.

    Moving on.

    Despite JVT.

    Despite the cack handed attempt to feck xmas by failing to deliver boosters.
    What failure to deliver boosters?



    The JCVI were slow to approve, but now the ball seems to be rolling swiftly and quite a few on this site have said they've had or booked their booster already.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,157

    Suspect Sunday Times in-depth look at what happened this week in the bunker is going to be brutal.

    Also suspect there will be an announcement within days of some changes in No 10 staff, comms, chief of staff etc etc. As clearly someone has dropped a fecking bollock in the last 24 hours.

    The draft report by the Standards Commissioner on the PM went in a couple of days ago. That's what this whole issue is about - not Paterson. That suggests the report is damning.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    dixiedean said:

    Labour win in Rutland. Gain from Indy. First Lab on Council.

    Rutland goes Labour?

    It's over for Johnson.

    Isn’t that where Foxy lives? Perhaps he is no longer the only non-Tory in the village…
    No, I live in Leics, though I used to have a dingy on Rutland Water. A bit surprised at this one myself! There was a successful LD by-election campaign earlier in the year. Perhaps people are just fed up of being taken for granted. Notable too that was pretty 50/50 for Brexit, despite being an older population in Rutland.
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    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...




    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    I feel the Chief Whip has been unduly maligned in all of this. Surely his job was to win the vote, which he did comfortably enough given the circumstances. Not his fault Boris blundered about afterwards u-turning.
    Well, yes, but his job also is the other way - to convey to the PM and Cabinet that there is serious discontent in the ranks.

    No way Thatch would have made the mistakes of last 24 hours.
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    Cyclefree said:

    Suspect Sunday Times in-depth look at what happened this week in the bunker is going to be brutal.

    Also suspect there will be an announcement within days of some changes in No 10 staff, comms, chief of staff etc etc. As clearly someone has dropped a fecking bollock in the last 24 hours.

    The draft report by the Standards Commissioner on the PM went in a couple of days ago. That's what this whole issue is about - not Paterson. That suggests the report is damning.
    Time for one of your headers?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Cyclefree said:

    Suspect Sunday Times in-depth look at what happened this week in the bunker is going to be brutal.

    Also suspect there will be an announcement within days of some changes in No 10 staff, comms, chief of staff etc etc. As clearly someone has dropped a fecking bollock in the last 24 hours.

    The draft report by the Standards Commissioner on the PM went in a couple of days ago. That's what this whole issue is about - not Paterson. That suggests the report is damning.
    Quite probably. But if it was damning enough to try to junk the standards process in advance with Paterson as the pretext, would it not have been important enough not to u-turn so feebly?
  • Options

    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...




    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    I feel the Chief Whip has been unduly maligned in all of this. Surely his job was to win the vote, which he did comfortably enough given the circumstances. Not his fault Boris blundered about afterwards u-turning.
    Well, yes, but his job also is the other way - to convey to the PM and Cabinet that there is serious discontent in the ranks.

    No way Thatch would have made the mistakes of last 24 hours.
    Yes if close to a hundred MPs [less any paired MPs] don't follow a three line whip then the Chief Whip has royally f***ed up.

    He should have conveyed the discontent and unwillingness to back the Whip on this.
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    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Suspect Sunday Times in-depth look at what happened this week in the bunker is going to be brutal.

    Also suspect there will be an announcement within days of some changes in No 10 staff, comms, chief of staff etc etc. As clearly someone has dropped a fecking bollock in the last 24 hours.

    The draft report by the Standards Commissioner on the PM went in a couple of days ago. That's what this whole issue is about - not Paterson. That suggests the report is damning.
    Quite probably. But if it was damning enough to try to junk the standards process in advance with Paterson as the pretext, would it not have been important enough not to u-turn so feebly?
    Something made him u-turn.

    Newspaper headlines?

    Focus group conveyed at 9am this morning?

    There's more to come imho...
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    Cyclefree said:

    Suspect Sunday Times in-depth look at what happened this week in the bunker is going to be brutal.

    Also suspect there will be an announcement within days of some changes in No 10 staff, comms, chief of staff etc etc. As clearly someone has dropped a fecking bollock in the last 24 hours.

    The draft report by the Standards Commissioner on the PM went in a couple of days ago. That's what this whole issue is about - not Paterson. That suggests the report is damning.
    A recall election for the PM would be entertaining indeed. Pity it won't happen!
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    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...




    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    I feel the Chief Whip has been unduly maligned in all of this. Surely his job was to win the vote, which he did comfortably enough given the circumstances. Not his fault Boris blundered about afterwards u-turning.
    Well, yes, but his job also is the other way - to convey to the PM and Cabinet that there is serious discontent in the ranks.

    No way Thatch would have made the mistakes of last 24 hours.
    Yes if close to a hundred MPs [less any paired MPs] don't follow a three line whip then the Chief Whip has royally f***ed up.

    He should have conveyed the discontent and unwillingness to back the Whip on this.
    Maybe he did? And he was told to do it all anyway.

    As I say. Looking forward to Sunday Times.

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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,104
    Farooq said:

    YouGov: Greens down 1% during Cop26. In a sense, not encouraging for them. But 9% is still high. Cannot see it being that high in an actual election, even if they fielded candidates in every seat, surely?

    For the 2019 GE, the Greens received 2.8% of the GB vote, which was more than they were polling for the first year of the Parliament, but less than thereafter, where their polling average peaked at about 8%.

    For the 2017 GE, the Greens received 1.7% of the GB vote, which was less than they polled for almost the entirety of the Parliament, their polling average having peaked at 5%.

    For the 2015 GE, the Greens received 3.8% of the GB vote, a level their polling average was below until the last year of the Parliament, when their average peaked at about 7%.

    The present Green polling average is reaching a high for the Parliament to date of about 7% (though end effects can affect the LOESS smooth, so this estimate of the average may change).

    I think the main thing I would conclude is that most Green voters are more pragmatic when it comes to voting then their attraction to idealistic Green politics would have you suppose, and they will often be convinced to vote for other parties who are seen as more likely to defeat the Tory candidate.

    They could do with a couple of good by-election performances to gain a bit of credibility. This seems unlikely.
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    Well, this has all been entertaining, if a little dispiriting (I thought we'd moved on from sleaze), but I am away to my bed.

    Night all.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645

    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...




    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    I feel the Chief Whip has been unduly maligned in all of this. Surely his job was to win the vote, which he did comfortably enough given the circumstances. Not his fault Boris blundered about afterwards u-turning.
    Well, yes, but his job also is the other way - to convey to the PM and Cabinet that there is serious discontent in the ranks.

    No way Thatch would have made the mistakes of last 24 hours.
    Yes if close to a hundred MPs [less any paired MPs] don't follow a three line whip then the Chief Whip has royally f***ed up.

    He should have conveyed the discontent and unwillingness to back the Whip on this.
    Perhaps he did and Boris came back with 'but will we win the vote?'. He might then have said 'Yes, but it will be closer than is comfortable' and the leader only heard the first word.

    It was, until today, apparently super important for...reasons, to push ahead with it, and as we know advisers, such as he would be in that scenario, merely advise.
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    .

    Tim Stanley not doing himself any favours by being the government smuck who is defending this crap.

    Paul Scully cuts a lonely figure tonight. If I were a Conservative MP who had been railroaded into voting for Leadsom's amendment I would be spitting feathers.

    Dear Sir Graham...
    What is Gove?
    Oh Brady don't hurt me
    Don't hurt me
    No more
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    So has the Queen died yet or what?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945

    I mentioned how this weekend someone in No 10 will have to fall and things would be REORGANIZED...




    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    Chief Whip plans to reject Tory calls for his resignation after this week’s debacle.

    Friend tells
    @christopherhope
    : “He does not regret for one second circling the wagons around a colleague who is in trouble. He would do the same with any other colleague”

    I feel the Chief Whip has been unduly maligned in all of this. Surely his job was to win the vote, which he did comfortably enough given the circumstances. Not his fault Boris blundered about afterwards u-turning.
    Well, yes, but his job also is the other way - to convey to the PM and Cabinet that there is serious discontent in the ranks.

    No way Thatch would have made the mistakes of last 24 hours.
    Yes if close to a hundred MPs [less any paired MPs] don't follow a three line whip then the Chief Whip has royally f***ed up.

    He should have conveyed the discontent and unwillingness to back the Whip on this.
    This is part of the problem though.
    The vote came out of the blue. With a 3 line whip the night before.
    Was there any time to take proper soundings?
    And if there was, was there time to U-turn?
    The PM tried to bounce this through before anyone twigged. He has form for this.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    Must say the Rutland result isn't backed up by others thus far.
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    New Thread.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,059

    So has the Queen died yet or what?

    I am not aware London Bridge has fallen, but a whole load of Boris' bridges have been burned today.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    So has the Queen died yet or what?

    Nowt on Twitter.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,909

    Interesting, perhaps, or maybe not… but not a single covidian question on QT tonight.

    Moving on.

    Despite JVT.

    Despite the cack handed attempt to feck xmas by failing to deliver boosters.
    Catching up on Peston too - and so far no covidianism on there either. Maybe people are moving on. Or maybe it’s just COP.
This discussion has been closed.