Best Of

Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.

There are brave prime continuing to resist Russia's occupation in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, but the evidence that emerged from Kherson after its liberation was that the Russians were prepared to do what was necessary to occupy a hostile country, and they're much better at that bloody business than the war-fighting end of things.

I think that the collective Western strategy means that continuing the war is a free hit for Putin. He does not have to fear overextending and pushing Russia past the point of endurance, because he knows Ukraine will be forced to accept a ceasefire whenever he feels the need to offer one.

Our actions and choices are therefore prolonging the war because we are minimising the risk of Russian defeat. Somehow we have to change the calculus. We need a change of strategy.

I don't disagree that a change of strategy is needed - frankly European leaders need to grow a pair - but I disagree re Putin.

He can't accept the current cease fire lines, because 1.1 million dead or invalided out for about 15% of the Ukraine, with the rest of Ukraine now clearly in the Western orbit, and essentially zero chance of a friendly Ukrainian government in the future means the end of Putin.

Putin needs a decisive victory. And he's been told that one is imminent.

I think that DumaAce might be advising him

Good morning and seasons greetings to all.

Albanian criminal can stay in UK because his partner cannot speak Albanian https://share.google/HNqRcl07p0GsZX1IR

This sort of bollocks decision by the tribunal plays into the hands of those who believe the Human rights act needs reviewing.

The decision isn't just bollocks its effing ludicrous.

I can't read the article but it seems the premise is that unless conditions are essentially perfect in all regards, with no grounds for appeal, you don't get deported.

The system working as intended then.

Politicians spoute shite about stopping this. They could. They never do.

If I was PM, I'd read Private Eye every fortnight, drag the appropriate ministers and civil servants in, and tell them to f***ing sort it out

Have you read Rory Stewart’s autobiography?

Or wondered why Starmer complains things can’t get done?

Overcoming systemic culture is hard. It requires knowledge, time and a certain kind of polite savagery.

Doesn't it really require a knowledge of behaviourism - ie find out what has motivated/motivates humans to make this mess, work out what will motivate them to fix it, and produce the desired political outcomes, and put those systems in place.

For a start, there can and should be a permanent system in place that makes civil service and political remuneration dependent on individual and departmental performance, but also on positive markers in the economy.

What if every civil servant was going to get less money in their pay packet and pension pot if GDP per capita went down? How would that affect the efficiency of the immigration system and levels of deportations? How would it affect things like the Chagos giveaway?

Ha

I worked in a bank where they tried to change the traders behaviour via the bonus.

So they capped the bonus component for profit and added in a component for growing market share.

The traders took mad risks to maximise profit, then used the “excess” profit to sell derivatives at a loss. So they finished the year with maximum profit bonus and increased bank market share.

Be careful what metrics you use.

The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.

Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.

Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.

Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.

Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.

The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by Russia's allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)

Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.