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Re: The game’s afoot as Burnham wants to be the new Lord Home – politicalbetting.com
Morning all 
I find it fascinating so many people's views of individual politicians are created/affirmed by trifling and trivial incidents. Somebody once said about all the world being a stage and politics is often described as theatre but there has to be more to our opinion forming than how someone looks, what they wear, what or who they are standing behind.
A powerful if often incoherent message from "Unite the Kingdom" yesterday - as others have said, what supporters of democracy may need to be concerned about isn't Reform but what might follow them if (or perhaps when) Reform themselves crash and burn. Advance is or seems to be the next stage of that though still struggling to form and develop an identity.
As has often happened with these large scale political marches (though not with the anti-Iraq War or Countryside Alliance marches which were miuch bigger and if memory serves entirely violence-free), a tiny element came looking for trouble and that has to be condemned unequivocally by all sides (including the march organisers).
The British system isn't like the house made of straw especially if you have a party with a large majority in office. All the huffing and puffing in the world won't make it fall down from the outside - it might fall from the inside but that's different. Many might want an election but its' far from the first time there have been calls for "an early election" when a Government has disappointed - it didn't happen then and it won't happen now.

I find it fascinating so many people's views of individual politicians are created/affirmed by trifling and trivial incidents. Somebody once said about all the world being a stage and politics is often described as theatre but there has to be more to our opinion forming than how someone looks, what they wear, what or who they are standing behind.
A powerful if often incoherent message from "Unite the Kingdom" yesterday - as others have said, what supporters of democracy may need to be concerned about isn't Reform but what might follow them if (or perhaps when) Reform themselves crash and burn. Advance is or seems to be the next stage of that though still struggling to form and develop an identity.
As has often happened with these large scale political marches (though not with the anti-Iraq War or Countryside Alliance marches which were miuch bigger and if memory serves entirely violence-free), a tiny element came looking for trouble and that has to be condemned unequivocally by all sides (including the march organisers).
The British system isn't like the house made of straw especially if you have a party with a large majority in office. All the huffing and puffing in the world won't make it fall down from the outside - it might fall from the inside but that's different. Many might want an election but its' far from the first time there have been calls for "an early election" when a Government has disappointed - it didn't happen then and it won't happen now.
1
Re: Lucy Powell is now the favourite to win the deputy leader race – politicalbetting.com
Daily Mail - 'Starmer cried: 'You're supposed to be protecting me'. The showdown between PM and key aide that's the talk of Westminster'Backing Powell is starting to look like easy money?
"According to the Whitehall grapevine, it was the moment that growing tensions between the two most senior men in the British Government finally exploded into the open.
'You are supposed to protect me from things like this!' a furious Sir Keir Starmer is said to have bellowed at Morgan McSweeney, the man dubbed The Real Deputy Prime Minister.
'That's exactly what I was trying to do!' Mr McSweeney roared back.
The extraordinary exchange – relayed to The Mail on Sunday by a highly placed source – came after Sir Keir returned to No10 on Wednesday following his Commons mauling over Peter Mandelson's links to paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
No 10 denies the encounter took place as described – and even tried to deny that chief of staff Mr McSweeney was in the country at the time, before backtracking.
But what is not in question is that the Mandelson scandal has turned into a full-blown political crisis which could lead to the end of Starmer's premiership.
Despairing Labour MPs are looking to Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham for salvation, with Lucy Powell running as his 'proxy' in the deputy leadership election.
Supporters hope Mr Burnham will return to the Commons in a by-election, making him eligible for a leadership bid."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15095781/Starmer-cried-showdown-PM-key-aide-Westminster.html

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Re: The game’s afoot as Burnham wants to be the new Lord Home – politicalbetting.com
What passes for debate now is a series of soundbites and gotchas.Well, it's often said we get the politicians we deserve but I think the quality of political journalism and analysis as presented on all media is disappointing. GB News is unwatchable as is Sky. Most questions are presented as simplistic binary options (which they aren't) and nobody is given time to put forward complex arguments for discussion. Trying to "discuss" immigration in two and a half minutes in an informed and reasoned way is impossible unless your sole argument is "sink the boats" or "deport them all".It speaks to the paucity of talent in British politics. Every party is led by the second rate. Backed by the fifth rate.On topic, if the answer is Burnham you asked the wrong question.Though, it does show what a shambles labour are in, and in particular Starmer and Reeves performance over the last 15 months
You look at Thatcher’s cabinets - sure, there were one or two clowns. But a good half of them could have been PM.
I think the coming of social media and the 24/7 news cycle and the end of any kind of deference have made an enormous and negative impact to the quality (as distinct from the quantity) of our politics.
50 years ago this is how it was done. Two heavyweight politicians listening to each other, not interrupting and civil countering each other's arguments.
https://youtu.be/CuZrzwm6CJs?si=DUsc53dtVl-Nf0gH

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Re: The game’s afoot as Burnham wants to be the new Lord Home – politicalbetting.com
@DAaronovitch
If Elon Musk had been an extremist imam making the same speech as that with which Musk addressed the Robinson rally, the demand that he be sanctioned would be overwhelming. But no. The hypocrisy from some erstwhile defenders of British values is stunning.
If Elon Musk had been an extremist imam making the same speech as that with which Musk addressed the Robinson rally, the demand that he be sanctioned would be overwhelming. But no. The hypocrisy from some erstwhile defenders of British values is stunning.

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Re: The game’s afoot as Burnham wants to be the new Lord Home – politicalbetting.com
Well, it's often said we get the politicians we deserve but I think the quality of political journalism and analysis as presented on all media is disappointing. GB News is unwatchable as is Sky. Most questions are presented as simplistic binary options (which they aren't) and nobody is given time to put forward complex arguments for discussion. Trying to "discuss" immigration in two and a half minutes in an informed and reasoned way is impossible unless your sole argument is "sink the boats" or "deport them all".It speaks to the paucity of talent in British politics. Every party is led by the second rate. Backed by the fifth rate.On topic, if the answer is Burnham you asked the wrong question.Though, it does show what a shambles labour are in, and in particular Starmer and Reeves performance over the last 15 months
You look at Thatcher’s cabinets - sure, there were one or two clowns. But a good half of them could have been PM.
I think the coming of social media and the 24/7 news cycle and the end of any kind of deference have made an enormous and negative impact to the quality (as distinct from the quantity) of our politics.
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Re: The game’s afoot as Burnham wants to be the new Lord Home – politicalbetting.com
On Topic.
The Centrists like Burnham need to let SKS and his Red Tories crash and burn electorally before mounting a challenge. After GE 2029 only gonna need about 10 MP nominations to stand and people like Akehurst,Streeting,Reeves,Cooper will be retired to the Lkrds
The Centrists like Burnham need to let SKS and his Red Tories crash and burn electorally before mounting a challenge. After GE 2029 only gonna need about 10 MP nominations to stand and people like Akehurst,Streeting,Reeves,Cooper will be retired to the Lkrds
Re: The game’s afoot as Burnham wants to be the new Lord Home – politicalbetting.com
@molly.wikiThat is exactly what it seems to be. There's no apparent manifesto or video giving a reason. If he was far-left there appears to be little evidence of it. It fits much more in line with a string of other recent shootings, and attemps/plots, driven by a sub-culture that is basically invisibile to most of the media, and doesnt' really fit anyone's agenda.
> the shooter is trans
> ok the bullets were trans
> ok the roommate is trans
It is increasingly clear that the guy was a terminally online gamer and shooting Kirk was basically the ultimate shitpost

2
Re: The game’s afoot as Burnham wants to be the new Lord Home – politicalbetting.com
It wasn't so long ago the Conservatives decided Boris Johnson was "the answer" and about the same time, the Liberal Democrats thought Jo Swinson was "the answer".On topic, if the answer is Burnham you asked the wrong question.Though, it does show what a shambles labour are in, and in particular Starmer and Reeves performance over the last 15 months
Not knowing or understanding the question is hardly the monopoly of the Labour Party.
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Re: The game’s afoot as Burnham wants to be the new Lord Home – politicalbetting.com
I dont think the next Labour leader will be one who served in the Blair and Brown governments. Indeed that is one reason that Corbyn got the gig.The Mid-Staffs thing has the potential to become a problem. There was a concerted campaign against the whistleblowers and some politicians actually backed this on a “protect the NHS” basisWhat state is the Labour Party in when Burnham is seen as its saviour. Do the people supporting him not remember his pitiful run at the leadership previously. A campaign which made Kamala Harris’s for the Democratic nomination seem inspired.Exactly. He was in charge of the NHS when the Staffordshire scandal happened. His record on grooming gangs in Manchester is not good either. He got a pitiful number of votes when he last stood and he simply jumps from bandwagon to bandwagon.
I think Labour should persist with Starmer, get through the next locals, and Starmer needs to start grooming the next generation and promoting them.
Burnham can have influence, and has reinvented himself as King of the North, but Labour need and want a fresher face.

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Re: The game’s afoot as Burnham wants to be the new Lord Home – politicalbetting.com
And the same was true of those on the Opposition benches. Even when they were wrong (Foot, say) or a bit mad (Benn), they were people of substance.It speaks to the paucity of talent in British politics. Every party is led by the second rate. Backed by the fifth rate.On topic, if the answer is Burnham you asked the wrong question.Though, it does show what a shambles labour are in, and in particular Starmer and Reeves performance over the last 15 months
You look at Thatcher’s cabinets - sure, there were one or two clowns. But a good half of them could have been PM.
I think you've pointed out before that people of substance mostly don't want to touch public service through government with a bargepole. Partly because there are easier ways of making a better living, but also... why would you? Why go on the stage when a million Waldorfs and Statlers are going to heckle your every action.
And on top of that, the 'sack the manager' syndrome means that what little talent there is get pushed to the top jobs before they are ready and are quickly binned when they inevitably fail. Since World War 2, the supply of people capable of being an effective PM has been... 1 or 2 a decade? In recent years, demand has exceeded supply.
I know it triggers some when I say it, but Starmer and Badenoch are the least rancid options on the shelf. Changing either of them would be another change for the worse. And the idea that 'the public deserves better' is largely tosh as well. We may not have done it deliberately, but the society around us is the consequence of the totality of the choices we have collectively made over decades. We have almost exactly the quality of politicians we deserve.