Best Of

The header is a very good description of my stepdaughter. She's been to uni, got a decent degree and is working at entry level in her chosen career in law. But the combination of a low wage and high house prices means that she won't be able to afford a place of her own for ages. A lot of her friends are in a similar position and, despite not being especially environmentally conscious, are mostly intending to vote Green. It is indeed a cry for help.

Younger people have been betrayed. The thing I find very annoying is the lecturing they’re subjected to by those who had free tuition fees , lower house prices etc .

Younger people find it almost impossible now to get on the housing ladder unless they have parental help or are in very high paying jobs.

You get the lecturing whereby they’re told they spend too much , shouldn’t go on holidays or socialise but the reality is they have lost hope because even if they did those things they’d never save enough for a deposit because each year the goalposts are widened .

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

A £50 charity bet that Kemi either does not face a VONC by 1st September - or if she does, she survives it.

Interested?

Yes, if the Tories are 4th in May Kemi will certainly face a VONC in my view, so I will take a bet on those terms, the Tories coming third or worse in May will have a VONC. If the Tories are second or better she won't so the bet is then void

You're in the party am I'm not. But I would have thought the pressure on her was past:
Tories have cleared out the mad, insane and stupid to Reform. You are a Better Party without those morons.
Reform are on the slide. Plot the trendline, look at the hurdles they face.
Kemi has found her rhythm - previous government a bit crap, I'm new, I'm punchy, life vs Starmer's inertia

And you want to replace her with Shithole Cleverley?

If the Tories are second to Reform in May then yes Kemi will be safe.

If Yougov is right though and the Conservatives are behind not only Reform but Labour too and even maybe the Greens I am afraid Kemi is gone and will be removed. Not only will she have failed to win back rightwing voters from Reform she will also have lost centrist swing voters to Labour, the latter the type of voters Cleverly appeals more to

What do you think Cleverly would do any different to Kemi other than take the party lower in the polls ?

Well he polls better with all voters as shown at the time of the 2024 leadership election and if the Tories are fourth as Yougov says this morning there really isn't much lower they can go Kemi hasn't already taken them

If you are using a 2024 poll then you have no case

Kemi is a gnats bollock away from losing 33% of the Tory vote in a GE that was their worst result in 100 years

She tries to out Reform as Reform lose 20% of their headline vote.

One Nation Toryism of the likes of Heseltine and Cameron would comfortably polling low to mid 20s

She has no
Brand
Identity
Policy
Vision
Plan

Everything is an argument
She is surrounded by busted flushes

The more people see of her the less they like.

She is irrelevant to the right, the left and in the centre.

Usual tripe from you

Kemi tops leaders approval and is on 84% approval with members

Kemi is not the problem, the brand is still suffering from Johnson Truss years but she has 3 years to recover the brand

Anyway you and @HYUFD seem to agree and like each other posts so that is the strangest of alliances on here

27% approval is hardly stellar, though. After all, the Worst Prime Minister In Living Memory is on 22% approval.

And high membership approval didn't do Corbyn much good in general elections.

You are right to say that any Conservative leader would have a problem, because their record hangs round them like a particularly smelly albatross. That's going to be a problem until someone not associated with the 2019-24 government breaks through. In the meantime, someone who doesn't seem to get all their takes from social media, and who has the gumption to disagree with Nick Timothy might be progress.

And whilst I don't agree with everything that HYUFD or Eagles say, I'm pretty sure they're worth listening to, if only because they have more political contact with voters than I do.

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

A £50 charity bet that Kemi either does not face a VONC by 1st September - or if she does, she survives it.

Interested?

Yes, if the Tories are 4th in May Kemi will certainly face a VONC in my view, so I will take a bet on those terms, the Tories coming third or worse in May will have a VONC. If the Tories are second or better she won't so the bet is then void

You're in the party am I'm not. But I would have thought the pressure on her was past:
Tories have cleared out the mad, insane and stupid to Reform. You are a Better Party without those morons.
Reform are on the slide. Plot the trendline, look at the hurdles they face.
Kemi has found her rhythm - previous government a bit crap, I'm new, I'm punchy, life vs Starmer's inertia

And you want to replace her with Shithole Cleverley?

If the Tories are second to Reform in May then yes Kemi will be safe.

If Yougov is right though and the Conservatives are behind not only Reform but Labour too and even maybe the Greens I am afraid Kemi is gone and will be removed. Not only will she have failed to win back rightwing voters from Reform she will also have lost centrist swing voters to Labour, the latter the type of voters Cleverly appeals more to

What do you think Cleverly would do any different to Kemi other than take the party lower in the polls ?

Well he polls better with all voters as shown at the time of the 2024 leadership election and if the Tories are fourth as Yougov says this morning there really isn't much lower they can go Kemi hasn't already taken them

If you are using a 2024 poll then you have no case

Kemi is a gnats bollock away from losing 33% of the Tory vote in a GE that was their worst result in 100 years

She tries to out Reform as Reform lose 20% of their headline vote.

One Nation Toryism of the likes of Heseltine and Cameron would comfortably polling low to mid 20s

She has no
Brand
Identity
Policy
Vision
Plan

Everything is an argument
She is surrounded by busted flushes

The more people see of her the less they like.

She is irrelevant to the right, the left and in the centre.

Usual tripe from you

Kemi tops leaders approval and is on 84% approval with members

Kemi is not the problem, the brand is still suffering from Johnson Truss years but she has 3 years to recover the brand

Anyway you and @HYUFD seem to agree and like each other posts so that is the strangest of alliances on here

This is over optimistic. With Reform trending down, the Tories should be, but are not, the big gainers. The Greens' upward curve mirrors Reform's exactly.

Kemi is not addressing the central questions of Tory voters (I was one for nearly 50 years): Who do I vote for is I want a sane centre right party that that can actually form a coherent government with 326 seats?

Why should I vote Tory instead of Reform if I am one of their more right wing voters voters?

Who do I vote for tactically if I certainly want to stop Reform but I think the Tories can't form a government and might keep Reform in power?

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

A £50 charity bet that Kemi either does not face a VONC by 1st September - or if she does, she survives it.

Interested?

Yes, if the Tories are 4th in May Kemi will certainly face a VONC in my view, so I will take a bet on those terms, the Tories coming third or worse in May will have a VONC. If the Tories are second or better she won't so the bet is then void

You're in the party am I'm not. But I would have thought the pressure on her was past:
Tories have cleared out the mad, insane and stupid to Reform. You are a Better Party without those morons.
Reform are on the slide. Plot the trendline, look at the hurdles they face.
Kemi has found her rhythm - previous government a bit crap, I'm new, I'm punchy, life vs Starmer's inertia

And you want to replace her with Shithole Cleverley?

If the Tories are second to Reform in May then yes Kemi will be safe.

If Yougov is right though and the Conservatives are behind not only Reform but Labour too and even maybe the Greens I am afraid Kemi is gone and will be removed. Not only will she have failed to win back rightwing voters from Reform she will also have lost centrist swing voters to Labour, the latter the type of voters Cleverly appeals more to

What do you think Cleverly would do any different to Kemi other than take the party lower in the polls ?

Well he polls better with all voters as shown at the time of the 2024 leadership election and if the Tories are fourth as Yougov says this morning there really isn't much lower they can go Kemi hasn't already taken them

If you are using a 2024 poll then you have no case

Kemi is a gnats bollock away from losing 33% of the Tory vote in a GE that was their worst result in 100 years

She tries to out Reform as Reform lose 20% of their headline vote.

One Nation Toryism of the likes of Heseltine and Cameron would comfortably polling low to mid 20s

She has no
Brand
Identity
Policy
Vision
Plan

Everything is an argument
She is surrounded by busted flushes

The more people see of her the less they like.

She is irrelevant to the right, the left and in the centre.

Usual tripe from you

Kemi tops leaders approval and is on 84% approval with members

Kemi is not the problem, the brand is still suffering from Johnson Truss years but she has 3 years to recover the brand

Anyway you and @HYUFD seem to agree and like each other posts so that is the strangest of alliances on here

This is over optimistic. With Reform trending down, the Tories should be, but are not, the big gainers. The Greens' upward curve mirrors Reform's exactly.

Kemi is not addressing the central questions of Tory voters (I was one for nearly 50 years): Who do I vote for is I want a sane centre right party that that can actually form a coherent government with 326 seats?

Why should I vote Tory instead of Reform if I am one of their more right wing voters voters?

Who do I vote for tactically if I certainly want to stop Reform but I think the Tories can't form a government and might keep Reform in power?

Kemi has announced the end of stamp duty and farmers IT, will address student loans and wants to help the young, will address the boats and fair immigration, drill in the north sea, and above all prioritise defence

Of course the conservative brand is a problem but changing the leader who is popular amongst her mps and the membership would be an act of self harm and you do have to wonder why some lefties concentrate on attacking her if they do not see her as a threat and would like gone

I would exclude @HYUFD because he seems fairly unique in conservatives who would prefer Cleverly for reasons beter known to himself

The Tories need to be on the move up in to a GE, not a year and three quarters in to the parliament with 2 disatisfaction/protest parties running riot (and now declining). Reform have shown us the danger of burning bright too early.

Book banning in Manchester: https://www.indexoncensorship.org/2026/03/school-book-banning-escalates-in-the-uk-as-greater-manchester-secondary-school-censors-scores-of-books/

To be fair they banned Twilight which is utter shite.

One young girl's choice between a life of necrophilia or a life of bestiality.

Good grief!!
The thing that stands out to me about this is the stereo-typing of neurodiverse people having difficulty in human to human interaction, the librarian described as autistic is clearly far more empathetic and logical than the school leadership.
It seems to be those, ny implication neuro normal(?) median(?) who can't relate to and have difficulty interacting with others.

It’s about people who are terrified by other people doing things without rules.

So they must create a rule. Because relying on morality and judgement in a responsible person is Wrong.

Once they have created a rule, it is Heresy to Go Against The Rules. Even (or especially) if the rule is obviously bolllocks.

In the lighter vein - see the almost desperate attempts to stop people rolling cheeses down a hill.

In the darker vein - the response to the Supreme Court ruling on trans. Some organisations seemed to take a delight in imposing the most extreme interpretation they could.

Yes the Polanski Greens are basically Corbyn lite attracting the same type of voters, mainly under 40 burdened by student debt and not owning a house and feeling capitalism does not work for them and willing to give tax and spend socialism a go. They are no longer the party of posh middle class environmentalists like Jonathan Porritt.

Green voters do though have some similarity with Reform voters though in that they are less likely to be financially comfortable than average

Isn't the reason that Green voters don't feel like capitalism is working for them that, in many cases, it isn't particularly? Not exclusively because it's so hard to escape the rental trap, but that being a very large factor. And that, in turn being linked to a change in small-c-conservatism from "pass a better life on to the next generation/enough evolution to prevent revolution" to "après moi le déluge".

And that's just another form of nihlism- that of the powerful, rather than the powerless.

Yes they are socialist as they don't have any capital mainly

Which raises the question: why did the Tories (2010-2024) shaft the young, rather than make little capitalists out of them?

Osborne.

Book banning in Manchester: https://www.indexoncensorship.org/2026/03/school-book-banning-escalates-in-the-uk-as-greater-manchester-secondary-school-censors-scores-of-books/

To be fair they banned Twilight which is utter shite.

One young girl's choice between a life of necrophilia or a life of bestiality.

Good grief!!
The thing that stands out to me about this is the stereo-typing of neurodiverse people having difficulty in human to human interaction, the librarian described as autistic is clearly far more empathetic and logical than the school leadership.
It seems to be those, ny implication neuro normal(?) median(?) who can't relate to and have difficulty interacting with others.

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

To some extent the figures can be overlooked. The reasons for the figures and the likely futures are the matters of political, power and betting interest.

The Tories problem is not the 4th place and 17%. It's that as things stand, at the next GE the are not the right answer to any sensible question.

Do you want a Right of Centre radical government without years of government failure in your record? Vote Reform.

Do you want a One Nation Tory government? Not on the menu

Do you want to ensure Reform don't govern? Vote tactically for Lab/Greeen/LD/Nat

Do you want a Reformlite bunch of confused people who may or may not keep a Reform government in power but won't tell you which and if they did you would not believe them, and have zero chance of getting power themselves? Vote Tory.

The chances therefore of a Left Of Centre government 2029 are high. (Reform government low). It is hard to say much more than that. But I expect Labour to recover a lot of ground.