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£570mn a year for Erasmus?! I see the Chagos negotiators have already found a new job in government.

We need a comparator on that.

The requested contribution for 2021 that the UK Govt walked away from was £600 million per annum: *

Under Erasmus+, the UK already contributed significantly more than we got out in the form of receipts, and the only terms of offer for continued participation would have required an annual gross contribution of £600 million, or a net contribution in the region of £2 billion over the course of the programme.

£600 million a year in 2027 with 2021->2027 inflation of 30% (about right) would be £780 million pro-rata, so £570 million is a like for like reduction of 27%.

Is that a good deal? I think that probably depends on how well we fill our quota of 100k students.

Back in 2020 there was funding for 55.7k students to be involved, and we sent 10k and received 16k. It's up to us to use it fully. I think in that case it will be good value, especially in undermining the xenophobia that poisons our politics.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg4ng7ee9vwo

* https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2021-07-12/HL1883/

I dont think anyone has commented on latest YouGov opinion poll from Wales for Senedd elections.

Plaid 33%
Reform 30%
Labour 10% !!!
Conservative 10%
Green 9%
LibDem 6%

This would give (around):
Plaid 39 seats
Reform 34 seats
Labour 10 seats
Conservatives 6 seats
LibDem 4 seats
Green 3 seats

The finishing line (in new 96 member Senedd) is 49,

So Plaid & Lab = 49
Reform & Con = 40

But with a small movement in seats it might be possible for Plaid to form a coalition with Green & LD...consigning Labour to the back benches. Popcorn supplies on order....

Do you have a link please?

https://x.com/i/status/2001181075742023857

Labour at 10% in Wales is utterly devastating for them but well earned

Aaron Rupar
@atrupar

Trump: "Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us. The illegitimate Maduro Regime is using Oil from these stolen Oil Fields to finance themselves, Drug Terrorism, Human Trafficking, Murder, and Kidnapping. For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION."

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2001078084972298619

Such a blockade is quite plainly an act of war under US (and of course international) law - unauthorised by Congress.
Trump is effectively re-enacting Suez.

I dont think anyone has commented on latest YouGov opinion poll from Wales for Senedd elections.

Plaid 33%
Reform 30%
Labour 10% !!!
Conservative 10%
Green 9%
LibDem 6%

This would give (around):
Plaid 39 seats
Reform 34 seats
Labour 10 seats
Conservatives 6 seats
LibDem 4 seats
Green 3 seats

The finishing line (in new 96 member Senedd) is 49,

So Plaid & Lab = 49
Reform & Con = 40

But with a small movement in seats it might be possible for Plaid to form a coalition with Green & LD...consigning Labour to the back benches. Popcorn supplies on order....

Either way a Plaid FM looks likely even if Reform won most Welsh seats, though I doubt the voteshares change much now so Labour will likely remain in power as minority partners with Plaid. So vote Plaid still get Labour has some merit as a slogan

If Ref and PC are close then it might come down to the efficiency of the Tory and Lab votes on low double figures as to who can form a government. I personally think its very unlikely the LDs and Greens get more than 4 seats between them, so its then down to Lab and Con 'converting in sixth' away from their 'bankers'

Even if Reform manage to be the largest party, it is difficult to see how they could form a government as only Cons will work with them - and that is not certain.

Plaid have the advantage of having three potential suitors.

Oh Plaid are favourites for sure.
But the sixth places are vital. The more Con or Lab crawl above 10% the more they will pick up - getting lucky in 2 or 3 might be the difference.
LDs on 4 is too high on 6% though imo. Ill be amazed if they get more than 2 - one in Cardiff (east), one in Brecon etc

Edit - and FWIW i expect the Tories to tell Reform to do one. Although if holding balance theyd probably let Reform fall apart in minority