Best Of

Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

Word missing there?

On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

He has considerable political experience, but very little parliamentary experience. The latter is not that much of a barrier anymore, he will have had 4-5 years of it by the time of the next election which is not that far off several modern PMs, though the odds woudl also be that he has extremely few MPs in his ranks with much parliamentary let alone governmental experience, which may be a more significant factor.

Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

Word missing there?

On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

No serving leader of any nation (with the possible exception of Russia) has ever named a ship after themselves.
It's pretty well the ultimate in imbecilic narcissism.

HMS Queen Elizabeth so I agree.

There is a US Navy proscription against naming ships after living people (although Vinson and Stennis got passes) so this new whatever-it-is is the 'Trump Class' and the lead ship will be USS Defiant. If it ever gets built.

Aircraft carriers named after Ronald Reagan and George H W Bush while still alive. In fact Bush was actively involved in the ceremonials. Of course, he had a distinguished wartime record serving as a naval pilot flying from carriers. Donald Trump not quite so renowned for his martial endeavours.

They tried to curtail the practice after the GWoT when there was some push to name ships after living Medal of Honor recipients. I think they were concerned that they'd name the ship then the namesake would get done for drunk driving or worse.

Trump-class battleships?

"Trump unveils plans for 'Golden Fleet' battleships named after himself"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2084nq2npjo

No expert, but it doesn't look like a battleship to me.

TBF a Great War/WW2 corvette didn't look like the small sailing ship of the mid-C19 ... What is also notable is that it's to be called the Trump Class, which indicates that the first ship of the class will be named after Mr Trump (a class of warships is usually named after the first of the class, pace [edit] UK MoD and its stupid messing around of late).

Usually Presidential names get applied to Nimitz- or Ford-class nuclear aircraft carriers. But it's not cut and dry. Mr Carter got a nuke sub named after him (entirely appropriately and I imagine amicably, as he was a nuke sub engineer by trade).

No serving leader of any nation (with the possible exception of Russia) has ever named a ship after themselves.
It's pretty well the ultimate in imbecilic narcissism.

Do HMS Queen Elizabeth and the Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers count?

It's named after the first Elizabeth. Both have boring names - I want Dwarf and Dainty, to confuse the enemy.

They should have been Ark Royal and Illustrious or Hermes but the MoD named them QE/PoW to make it politically difficult to cancel them. It worked!

Starmer/Reeves in full panic and change IHT for farmers

Have they said they'd reverse that? I'd be surprised. It would lead to a revolt not least from me.

BBC News - Government waters down inheritance tax plan for farms
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8e9n3y28g1o

This is the best Christmas present me, my family and my friends could have had. I can now safely sleep at night, that is how bad it has been. Especially for those older than me with serious health issues. Bad news for agricultural valuers of course who would have made a fortune over the arguing the toss over the values of farms. It takes my estate out of the danger zone and so we can now look forwards to building the shed which we have needed for many years.

I had expected this to become a jockeying point when the new Labour leader was selected or else it to be put off for a year, and a year and a year.

They pointed the shotgun at the whole farming industry. We stood up to them and they have blinked. But we won't forget, no we won't forget ...

That is the whole point

The farmers will not forgive or vote labour because of this

They also voted en masse for Brexit and then realised they had screwed themselves. They are the ultimate selfish opportunists who believe the world owes them a living. Of course they won't vote labour.

British farmers do appear to be cretinous, as a class.
Brexit is exhibit 1.

However, if you care about land use and food quality, then you need to care about farmers.

Reeves’s problem is she actively hates much of the country, including farmers.

The amount of political capital burnt in this thing is incredible. Ultimately, the correct decision, tax should be targeted at investors and companies buying land. The vast majority of farm estates will now be exempt, providing they make use of the £5m spouse allowance

The people benefiting from this change are those sitting on a highly tax efficient asset worth many millions who quite sincerely and genuinely want to keep it that way and don't see why they should pay the same tax as say someone running a productive business.

We have to concede an extremely effective lobbying exercise by wealthy landowners but we don't really need to agree with the principle of it. It's far more egregious than WFA for example.

Those who are genuinely worried about family farming would be far better off looking at *incomes* - for instance, supermarket buying practices - and food security.

But this lobbying has been all about protecting capital investment.

It's like houses - those who have houses are treated far better than those without when it comes to IHT. No wonder the values are distorted.

IHT is theft!

Property is theft comrade.

Your family member dies, you're bereaved, and you're left with a massive bill to Haitch-MRC - how does that work?

A family member dies and you're left a massive unearned pot of gold. How is that fair?

Because your family member worked hard all their life and should be allowed to dispose of their savings as they see fit?

You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

Westminster Voting Intention:

REF: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
Changes w/ 14-15 December.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?

Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.

Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.

I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.

Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.

Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:

- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough.
- Ref UK committed to reverse.
- Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.

One to watch.

(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.)
-

I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.

What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.

That was exactly my experience of driving in Wales soon after the limit was introduced. I have the impression that the vitriol has died down now, and some may even be acknowledging that lives have been saved and things are generally pleasanter but I don't follow Welsh politics much so I wouldn't really know if the hostility to Labour on this issue has abated at all.

I am a convert to the 20, after being opposed to it in the start. The roads in towns are so much safer. You can also pull out easily from side roads.

Most newer cars also have a limiter which means you don't have to keep monitoring your speed.

I was chatting to a chap from South Wales the other week. He says he loves driving at exactly 20 mph and watching the queue build up behind him. And if they get too close, he'll slow to 18...

There are a few who do this, but it in itself is dangerous causing anger and tailgating, even unsafe overtaking

The speed in these 20mph zones is not enforced until you reach 27mph

As far as the present position is, most councils are or have reviewed and reinstated some of the 30mph which have generally been accepted

Public Service announcement!

That is patently untrue. The 27mph prosecution trigger is a myth.

I hate the 20mph default, it is not easy to adhere to without the limiter deployed, but if it has saved the life of just one child (and the stats are compelling) it is worth its weight in Go Safe fines.

Team Nigel and the Tories are indulging in a Labour style hostage to fortune culture for demanding the return to a default 30mph limit. If there was any non-right wing media left they would be all over the change of speed limit on news of the first avoidable fatality.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/20mph-speed-limit-update-wales-32892181

You own article confirms the 10% plus 4 remains the trigger ie 26mph with no plans to change

I am content with the reviews and changes and it shouldn't be an issue going forward

You said it was enforced at 27 though !

It is commonly expected 20 - 26 is the margin

For clarification I drive to town on former 30mph roads and certainly a speed between 24 and 26 seems quite the norm

I do believe many roads at 20mph are correct, especially round schools and hospitals where 26mph is too high

Hang on, you've just said that it's correct to drive at 25/6mph in 20 mph limits. But the next moment you say that it's Ok to have 20mph limits around schools etc, where of course people will drive at 25/6 ... that's an argument for having 15mph limits instead [edit] around the schools..

No - The problem relates to previous 30mph zones which are the ones Go Safe monitor and the 26mph rule applies

The limits around schools and hospitals already existed

The 26mph trigger no longer applies. Prosecution is for 10% plus 2mph.

That's what I was told at the most recent of my numerous speed awareness courses.

In Wales ?

No, Gloucestershire, but I assume it is a UK wide approach.