Best Of

You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

Westminster Voting Intention:

REF: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
Changes w/ 14-15 December.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?

Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.

Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.

I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.

A Plaid outright majority is unlikely, they would still likely have to do a deal with Labour

Plaid doing any deal with labour will be toxic if the polls are correct

As I have said previously I instinctively believe Plaid are gaining and Reform dropping back

Plaid should govern as a minority government

You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

Westminster Voting Intention:

REF: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
Changes w/ 14-15 December.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?

Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.

Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.

I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.

Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.

Picking up on Wales, and the conversation yesterday, I see that on 20mh default speed limits in towns we have:

- Con current policy is to reverse, despite their noisy demands back in 2020/21 that timid Labour were not implementing it quicky enough.
- Ref UK committed to reverse.
- Evidence of the benefits is firming up in reduced casualties, safety and reduced insurance premiums, with annother year of data due before the Senedd elections next May.

One to watch.

(Checking, the position in England is that 20mph limits now cover areas where just under 20 million people live. TBH that is a lot higher than I thought it was.)
-

I had the opportunity recently to spend at least half an hour in total driving through 20mph speed limits in Wales and so, in true PB.com fashion, I am now an expert.

What surprised me most, given the vitriol in online discussions about them, is how well-observed they were. My experience in the past of driving through 20mph speed limits in England and Scotland is that a lot of drivers will speed past anyone obeying the speed limit.

While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

Good morning, everyone.

Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.

The Senedd elections will probably be the best indicator given the voting system they will be using. If the Tories finish ahead of Labour they should be very happy indeed. At the moment I'd say that's a 10/1 shot.

Running Reform close would be a valuable bonus.

This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.

On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.

In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.

I’m on the same page as you. Kill the lobster first then boil it. If you need to do a few blind taste tests to convince hard care boil alivers, do so.

It seems to be a bit of strange posturing for the sake of it. It's not hard to kill a lobster, just make sure it's not Lord Mandelson.

Having said that, lobster seems to me to be to be one of those things that are massively overvalued compared to the eating experience.

IIRC Keith Floyd recommended putting a big knife through its "brain" before cooking. And that was a long time ago

IT was. In the 1980s. In Floyd on Britain and Ireland. (I'm mildly surprised this is even controversial, so long as one knows how to handle the knife.)

I did a fish cookery day maybe 3 years ago, and that is what we were taught.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvSUalzJvcU

Or put it in the freezer for 10 minutes, which is the humane reverse of the boiling frog technique, and numbs the lobster.

From my favourite Scottish journalist and sketchwriter Stephen Daisley..

X
Stephen Daisley@JournoStephen
I’m not a Kemi Kultist like you but this is one of the few areas where I have actual insight. Two ministers were pivotal to the s.35 order that spiked the GRR Bill and precipitated Sturgeon’s resignation: Scottish Secretary Alister Jack and Badenoch. KB has been 💯 on this issue.

Said it before, Kemi had a tough gig inheriting a fractured Conservative party in a far worse shape after such a brutal GE defeat than Cameron and Osborne inherited in 2005 in Opposition, and lets face the party was stagnating in core box territory then with still less than 200 MPs after two bruising GEs following their then huge defeat in 1997! I remember being really impressed with Cameron even before the 2005 GE, ditto Ruth Davidson when she came on the scene up here in Scotland when she fought that by-election in Glasgow even before she entered Holyrood. I voted for Cameron and Davidson in the subequent Leadership contests and the rest is history. And I remain confident I made the right choice voting for Kemi last year.

There was not a cats chance in hell that any new leader of the Conservative party was going to get a fair hearing from the public after such a monumental defeat a year ago, the public were simple never going to be interested in what any new leader had to say. So the idea that ANY new Conservative leader, and especially a Farage mini me was going to fair any better is for the birds! But even more crazy, had the party panicked and tried to replace Kemi so soon after that GE with anyone else it would simple have driven home the toxic issues that saw the party suffer such a humiliating defeat in 2024.

Kemi inherited the worse political leadership gig last year, but like Cameron and Ruth Davidson she stuck to her guns and set her own path and she has grown into the job as Leader despite the internal and external critics grumbling from the sidelines. And the fact that her own personal ratings like Cameron and Davidson now show a more significant improvement than the party's polling tells you thanks to her like them, its her current performance which is definitely driving the fact that the public are now starting to take notice and are willing to give her and the party another look in an ever widening field of political party/leader contenders.

I would bet on Kemi if given the chance to stay the course until the next GE up against Nigel Farage who already seems to be going off the boil when it comes to the tough day to day hard grind of Opposition politics when the party in Government has a huge majority and you are literally a one man show with a handful of MPs even if GB news are desperately trying to do the heavy lifting for you. It will be interesting to see how that news channel deals with a renewed Conservative centre right party if the one man show that is Nigel Farage's Reform party loses momentum in the media and the polls next year.

You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

Westminster Voting Intention:

REF: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
Changes w/ 14-15 December.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

We're heading for a 5-way tie on 19% each.

I think Kemi is an excellent bet at 20 next PM, partly for trading and partly for value. Also like the 12-14 range for Conservative majority.

Is there a market for largest number of seats ?
(I'd want at least 20:1 for a Tory majority.)

Most seats they are 5.3-5.7

I'm also on that at a higher price, but at current prices prefer the majority/PM myself, if and when they get momentum vs Reform the press and donor money will accelerate that imo. On the PM I expect Starmer will be replaced closer to the election, but if he isn't then it will typically be a sign that Reform are no longer miles ahead and things are tightening up which again imo, favours the Tories.