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In 1938 Poland believed that Hitler had no more territorial demands.

In 2025 Poland believes:

Polish PM Tusk: “Witkoff made it very clear the U.S. will provide Ukraine with security guarantees so strong that Russia will have no doubt a future attack will trigger a military response. It’s not Article 5, but the implications are serious.”

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2000829722834714678?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Nah, no-one trusts or believes Trump, but it is still better for our leaders to publicly pretend that they do whilst in private making sure we have the capacity to defend ourselves without the US, and sadly even potentially against the US.

The US security guarantees are still worth something important, they just shouldn't be relied upon as a guarantee even if we have to call it that.

They are worth bugger all.
As the previous set of security guarantees demonstrated, and as Trump's behaviour has demonstrated beyond argument.

Anyone genuinely relying on the word of Witkoff or Trump shouldn't be allowed out on their own, let alone run a country.

If the BBC needs tips on how to respond to Trump's "powerhouse" lawsuit, this's should help.

Pulitzer Prize Board members dump broad discovery demands on Trump for tax returns, psych records, and 'any' prescription meds history*
https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/pulitzer-prize-board-members-fight-back-with-wide-ranging-discovery-demands-including-about-trump-finances/

*He's also claiming "emotional damage"

I assume Trump will shortly be taking out a defamation suit against the English language which through its fake conventions and accepted meanings have twisted Trump’s words to give the impression that he’s a gross, grifting, sociopathic shitstain suffering from encroaching senility, and who is not the sharpest tool in the box.

I've never liked Trump but I now have zero tolerance for any of his apologists - anyone who could try and excuse his remarks about Rob Reiner has no moral compass

So the BBC is going to fight - fight like hell - and I'll be there with them. They should crowdfund the cost of the case. Allow people to contribute if they are so inclined. Put me down for £500. I'll give up nuts for a year. It's a no brainer.

There was some stuff from Newsmax on the BBC this morning saying both that the BBC couldn't afford to fight the case (£50m plus) versus settling (maybe £10-15m) .. and that they would be embarrassed by the discovery process.

I'm with you in saying bollocks to that.
The BBC's own right to discovery is likely to be very interesting in what it might turn up. And I'm happy to help pay to defend such a transparently nonsense lawsuit.

It's important, I think. People talk a lot about "British values" and if not giving in to extortion by malevolent foreigners isn't one of them it jolly well should be. I also like the calculus of it. IMO the potential damage to Donald Trump of having this litigated in open court in the US is greater than that to the BBC.

I'm on the side of freedom of speech here, and in that case that means I'm 100% behind the BBC in this case.

US law should be on their side here too - far more than if the case was going to be heard in the libel capital of the world, London...

They should not settle, Trump has an extraordinarily high bar to pass in the US court system. And any halfway competent attorney ought to be able to defend them quite honestly.

Yeah but suppose Trump is attempting a mafia-style shakedown – write him a huge cheque or bad things will happen...

In unrelated news today:-

Trump suspends £31bn tech trade deal with Britain
White House halts talks on AI, nuclear and quantum computing as it seeks better terms on wider trade
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/16/trump-suspends-31bn-tech-prosperity-deal-with-britain/ (£££)

We should publicly do the same, and say we're open to discussing a better offer when they're ready to talk.
Enough of playing the bloody poodle.

I reckon the US looking disinterested in Ukraine increases the risk of the war between nuclear superpowers that nobody in their right mind wants. What stops this is Russia knowing that if they attack a NATO country the US will respond. Therefore the line isn't crossed. But what if thinking shifts and they decide the US will probably *not* respond? They are more likely to do it now, aren't they? And then - here's the thing - what if it turns out they were wrong and the US do in fact unleash a response? Oh dear. Point is, it's about deterring the first step on the escalator and I'd say the level of deterrence has gone down by a considerable amount under this Trump/Vance administration.

I am worried enough about Russia, but the real worry is China and how this affects their calculus with respect to an attempt to conquer Taiwan.

Yes, the same point applies, swapping China for Russia and Taiwan for European NATO country. I suppose the odds are we make it through to post Trump without complete and utter carnage but I do think the chances of it are a bit higher than you'd like and moving in the wrong direction.

The number of under 25 year old graduates I know without jobs is frankly scary.

Some twat in the village who is something in I-fucking-T (a career path which would make any normal person put a gun to their head it seems to me) was telling me that he recruited two new graduates this year. He got 400 applications for one position and 500 for the other. AI or some bollocks apparently.

Did you want to give this person a slap. I bet they expect these two graduates to be eternally grateful to them as well.

Not particularly. He's one of these padded waistcoat/trainer wankers with a fucking haircut who says things like "functionality" but he's got an e-tron GT with a 7 grand colour-to-sample paint job so that's pretty cool.

Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

And sometimes words just fail me:

"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

What public sector wage settlements between August and October are those? I don't recall any.

NHS medical staff got 4% this year and non-medical staff 3.6%. It was backdated to April but paid in August, so is that where the 7.6% comes from?

I honestly don't know. I don't know anyone getting 7.6%, let alone figures that make that an average. But this is from the BBC so I presume it is official statistics.

Reporters really should pick this up and go back to the source (which took me all of 30sec).

.... However, the public sector annual growth rate is affected by some public sector pay rises being paid earlier in 2025 than in 2024. RTI pay data are also published and provide a provisional, timelier estimate of median pay. The two data sources generally trend well for mean total pay...

So something of a statistical artifact from annualising quarterly pay numbers, which shot up compared with the prior year's quarter, because the early pay awards this year simply weren't in the numbers last year.

There ought to be a corresponding drop in the next quarter, I think ?

Lies, dammed lies and statistics comes to mind but you start to see where the extra tax income generated at the budget is going.

The majority of that additional tax is going to fiscal headroom, which is something to be encouraged imo - would have been tempting to spend it.

About 10% in going on two-child limit, then you've got additional funding for SEND, NHS drugs, asylum system, cuts to energy bills. The public sector wage increases were in the last budget.

You can try and dress it up however you like , "Fiscal Headroom" is just pyscho babble. It is being squandered on welfare increases and we will still liekly borrow even more money.

He’s just drinking the Labour Comms Kool-Aid.

Fiscal Headroom is meaningless especially given many of the tax increases are baked in for later in the parliament. Will stuff like the so called mansion tax even happen.

Apart from public sector spending and public sector employment we have very little growth at all.

The productive economy, we rely on, to fund public services. Which in turn support the productive economy. However there’s a disconnect. This govt is hopeless.

The number of under 25 year old graduates I know without jobs is frankly scary.

Some twat in the village who is something in I-fucking-T (a career path which would make any normal person put a gun to their head it seems to me) was telling me that he recruited two new graduates this year. He got 400 applications for one position and 500 for the other. AI or some bollocks apparently.

Yup - AI spamming in both directions.

Then HR using AI to filter applications. Which of course leads to an arms race to fill your CV with bollocks that AI “likes”.

And, of course, the candidates who are most likely to game their CVs…

The result is a fog of garbage in which neither companies or competent candidates can find each other.